ALL IN OR FOLD – SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

“Dodd-Frank, deleveraging, austerity, taxation…I began to look at the scope of changes I see coming. Not changes that might happen, but must happen! Will the changes be so enormous that it converts what used to be a very profitable business to one that becomes no longer viable? ALL In or Fold is an honest attempt to attack real estate and see if it can survive.” – Bruce Norris

LETTER FROM BRUCE

I never thought I’d ever contemplate not being a real estate investor. I’ve become financially well off because of real estate (at least, real estate as I know it).

I began to look at the scope of changes I see coming. Not what may happen, but what must happen! Will the changes be so enormous that they convert what was a very profitable business into one that’s much less profitable?

I found myself playing the part of devil’s advocate as I did research for this new report, All In or Fold. If you’re assuming that because real estate prices are half-off and interest rates are rock bottom, that this must be the all-time best investment opportunity of our lifetime to “go all in”, I encourage you to take a second look.

I do real estate market timing reports for two reasons. The first is to determine a strategy for my personal money and the businesses I own. The second is to share those findings with you in the most honest fashion possible. What I’m telling you is I was willing to write a report that said “fold” when it came to the future of real estate as an investment. The research that I’ve done has been an honest attempt to attack real estate and see if it would survive.

Why did real estate go up in the first place? It didn’t really go up prior to the 70s. Why? Why did California go up after 1973 at twice the pace of the rest of the country? That had never happened before. Were we just lucky that we were born in an era that found the baby boom generation maturing? As this huge generation got older, they earned more and demanded bigger houses. When one income wasn’t enough, no problem: enter the dominance of the two-worker family. When we needed more buyers, no problem: enter the foreign buyer, the emergence of the minority family buyer, and lots of migration. Whenever we reached a price point that made it difficult to qualify, no problem: we simply adjusted the loan programs to allow more and more people to buy.

I began to wonder if real estate went up due to a series of what I’ll call First Time Events. I found several dozen of these first time events, but they are over. They were possibly the drivers of past real estate cycles, but what will fuel future price growth if these first time events aren’t replaced?

• Which direction do you see these categories going in the next decade?
• Higher taxes on wages or lower taxes?
• Lower interest rates or higher interest rates?
• Less regulation or more regulation?
• Inflation going higher or lower?
• Interest rate deductions becoming more generous or taken away?
• Increased government spending or austerity?
• Capital gains tax going lower or higher?
• Loan programs more restrictive or generous?
• Immigration rules more lax or strict?
• Demographics having a positive or negative affect?

If you intend to be a real estate investor in 2012 and beyond, you had better not assume this will be business as usual. Looking forward to seeing you at All In Or Fold.

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