Western Home Sales Rise As CA Prices Keep Slipping

California’s housing market enters mid-October with a mixed signal set: national existing-home sales ticked up for the first time in months, yet Western prices kept slipping and mortgage rates refused to follow Treasury yields lower. Statewide, for-sale inventory has tightened sharply since spring even as affordability stays near historic lows, keeping both buyers and sellers on the sidelines. Central Valley foreclosure filings are climbing, a reminder that stretched household budgets haven’t fully stabilized. Meanwhile, Bay Area rents are surging again, squeezing tenants even as home prices soften — a divergence that keeps pulling would-be buyers back toward ownership despite steep borrowing costs.

In The News:

National Association of Realtors — Existing-Home Sales Increased 1.5% in September, According to NAR Report (October 13, 2026) — National sales rose to a 3.99 million annual pace, up 1.5% for the month but down 2.2% year over year. In the West, sales climbed 2.8% month over month to 730,000 annualized, though they remained 5.2% below last year, and the region’s median price slipped 0.3% to $613,600. NAR’s chief economist noted rising rates mean fewer buyers can qualify.

The Mortgage Reports — Mortgage Rates Face Downward Pressure as Treasury Yields Fall (October 13, 2026) — The 30-year fixed averaged 7.568% Monday, ticking up slightly even as the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 5.19%, underscoring that lower yields don’t guarantee quick relief at the lender level. Fed commentary pointed to a continued balancing act between cooling inflation and protecting jobs.

California Forecast — An Update on the Housing Market (October 12, 2026) — California’s median home price held near $901,640 in August as statewide inventory fell 20% since March to just 3.7 months of supply. With 30-year rates near 7.4% and only 18% of households able to afford a mid-tier home, roughly 76% of owners holding sub-5% mortgages have little reason to sell.

The Business Journal — Central Valley Foreclosures Edge Higher in 2026 (October 8, 2026) — Fresno, Kings, Madera, and Tulare counties logged 1,191 notices of default through August, up 2% year over year, with Fresno County alone responsible for 54% of the region’s August total. Filings remain about 92% below the Great Recession peak, but the share reaching trustee sale has fallen to 45%.

Apartment List — San Francisco Rent Report (October 2026) — San Francisco’s median rent climbed to $3,878 in September, up 1.1% for the month and 25.7% over the past year — the steepest increase among major U.S. cities, reclaiming its title as the nation’s priciest rental market and widening the gap between renting and buying across the Bay Area.