California real estate market update for October 2026

Sacramento Market Stays Tight As Prices Edge Higher

October 26, 2026

California’s housing market closed out October with signals pulling in different directions. Sacramento’s tight 2.7-month supply kept sellers in control even as listings piled up, while Orange County’s pending sales slipped to their lowest October level in five years and mortgage rates near 7.5% kept hesitant buyers on the sidelines. The Bay Area told a stronger story, with all nine counties posting home-value gains for a second straight month. Nationally, mortgage rates eased slightly for the first time since late August, offering a sliver of relief, even as pending sales and new listings stayed below last year’s pace heading into November.

In The News:

Hoodline — Sacramento's Hottest Housing Markets in Q3 2026 (October 23, 2026) — Sacramento County stayed a seller’s market in September with just 2.7 months of supply and a median sold price of $555,000, up slightly from August. For-sale listings rose 8.8% year-over-year even as closed sales fell by the same share, and homes sold for 98% of list price on average. In the Tahoe-area resort corridor, sales volume ticked up only 2% as active listings dropped 21% year-over-year.

RealEstateNews.com — Rates Drop, But Damage To Housing's Fall Season Already Done (October 22, 2026) — The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to 7.32%, its first weekly decline since late August, as Treasury yields eased below 5%. A Realtor.com economist cautioned the relief came too late to save the autumn selling season, noting purchase applications were down 18% year-over-year and roughly two-thirds of outstanding mortgages remain locked in below 5%, keeping move-up sellers on the sidelines.

Orange County Real Estate, Inc. — Pending Sales Hit a Five Year October Low (October 19, 2026) — Pending and under-contract listings in Orange County fell to 1,573, the fourth straight weekly decline and the lowest October reading in at least five years. Mortgage rates above 7.5% hit the under-$1 million segment hardest, even as active inventory held near 5,000 listings and homes continued taking 45 to 47 days to sell countywide.

Yahoo Finance — Home values soar in SF, continue rising all across 9 Bay Area counties (October 21, 2026) — All nine Bay Area counties posted home-value gains for a second straight month in September, led by San Francisco’s 2% monthly rise to roughly $1.4 million, its 13th consecutive month of growth. Marin and San Mateo also notched double-digit annual gains in their priciest ZIP codes, while Solano posted the region’s smallest monthly increase at just 0.1%.

WRE News — Pending Home Sales Stabilize As Inventory Tops 911,000 (October 25, 2026) — Weekly pending home sales slipped to 52,490 for the week ending October 23, about 22.5% below the same week last year, while active inventory climbed to nearly 912,000 homes, up 5.7% annually. New listings fell 6.1% and the national median list price dipped 2.1% to $415,000, as mortgage rates retreated toward the low-7% range after nearing 7.6% earlier in the month.

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TNG Team

Insights from The Norris Group team on hard money lending, trust deed investing, and California and Florida real estate markets.

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