California real estate market update for September 2026

Mortgage Rates Jump To 6.95% As Buyers Retreat

September 18, 2026

California’s housing market is absorbing another jolt from mortgage rates this week, with the benchmark 30-year rate climbing to 6.95% and pending sales nationally sliding to their lowest point in nearly three years. The impact is uneven across the state: Orange County’s rate crossed 7% but higher-end sellers are barely flinching, while South Bay sales volume dropped sharply on thin inventory. Sacramento’s single-family segment is proving surprisingly resilient — prices flat, above-list sales rising — even as its condo market cools fast. The throughline is a market splitting by price point and property type rather than moving as one, leaving room for well-positioned buyers and investors to find openings.

In The News:

Freddie MacMortgage Rates Average 6.95% (September 17, 2026) — The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage jumped to 6.95% this week, up sharply from 6.76% seven days earlier and roughly 70 basis points higher than a year ago, according to Freddie Mac’s latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Chief economist Sam Khater said the rate continues to fluctuate as markets digest incoming economic data, leaving affordability-strained buyers to navigate yet another swing in borrowing costs heading into fall.

RedfinPending Home Sales Slide to Nearly Three-Year Low as Buyers Pull Back (September 17, 2026) — Pending home sales fell 3.5% week over week during the four weeks ending September 13, dropping to their lowest level in almost three years as the latest rate spike pushed cautious buyers back to the sidelines. New listings also slipped, though inventory remains above last year’s pace, giving the shoppers who stay in the market more room to negotiate.

OC Real Estate Inc.Mortgage Rates Break 7% and Why Only a Third of Our Market Feels It Most (September 14, 2026) — Orange County’s 30-year rate crossed 7% for the first time this year, but the report notes only about a third of local inventory sits under $1 million, insulating higher-end sellers from the pinch. Active listings ticked up to 5,032, median days on market held near 45, and closed prices ranged from $803,750 for condos to $1.55 million for single-family homes.

Random Lengths NewsHome Sales Volume Shrinking (September 15, 2026) — South Bay-area home sales fell 12% in August alone as low inventory from homeowners locked into pandemic-era rates continues to squeeze the market. The Harbor area lost 15% in volume while Inland communities bucked the trend with 4% growth. Sales remain down 18% from 2019 levels even as median prices have climbed roughly 45% over the same stretch.

Prism GroupSeptember 2026 Sacramento County Market Outlook (September 10, 2026) — Sacramento’s single-family segment held remarkably steady in August, with the median price essentially flat at $549,950 even as closings fell 8% year over year and 35% of sales closed above list, up seven points annually. The condo market told a different story, sinking 42% in closings with the median price down 18% to $265,000 as supply months more than doubled.

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TNG Team

The Norris Group team

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