Housing Investor Confidence Hits Record Low
California’s housing market is entering late summer with a split personality. Prices are still grinding higher in the state’s tightest markets — San Francisco leads the nation’s largest metros in annual appreciation — even as national price growth slows to barely more than one percent. Mortgage rates have settled just under 6.7%, enough to nudge purchase and refinance applications higher without unlocking a wave of demand, and new listings are trickling back in, giving buyers more room to negotiate. The strain is showing up on the investment side, where financing costs and thinner margins have pushed investor confidence to the lowest level on record even as selective opportunities build for well-capitalized buyers.
In The News:
CNBC — Housing investors say this is their worst market in at least 3 years (August 14, 2026) — The RCN Capital/CJ Patrick Investor Sentiment Index slipped to 84 in its summer reading, a second straight quarterly decline and 18 points below the same period last year. Just 26% of the fix-and-flip and rental investors surveyed said conditions are better than a year ago — a record low — while 45% said conditions have worsened. More than half pointed to financing costs as the market’s biggest problem.
Cotality — U.S. home prices enter a new phase of regional rebalancing (August 10, 2026) — National home prices rose 1.2% year over year in June and 0.3% from May, with growth increasingly concentrated in the Northeast, Midwest and coastal California. San Francisco topped the country’s 100 largest metros at 7.5% annual appreciation. Chief economist Selma Hepp cautioned that spring momentum is likely to fade as labor-market softness and elevated borrowing costs weigh on the second half.
Freddie Mac — Mortgage rates average 6.67% (August 13, 2026) — The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.67%, down from 6.69% a week earlier, while the 15-year fell to 5.96% from 6.01%. Chief economist Sam Khater noted affordability has improved from a year ago and that recent gains in purchase and refinance applications show borrowers still respond quickly to even modest rate moves.
Redfin — U.S. pending home sales, new listings show flickers of life to start August (August 13, 2026) — Pending home sales edged up 0.4% week over week in the four weeks ending August 9, though they remain 1.6% below last year. New listings jumped 1.7%, the largest weekly gain in five months. Among major metros, San Francisco posted one of the strongest median price gains at 7.8% year over year, while San Jose new listings climbed 16.2%.
California YIMBY — The Homework: August 12, 2026 (August 12, 2026) — Four Senate housing bills cleared Assembly Appropriations and moved to the floor in the Legislature’s final weeks, including SB 1117, which removes the fee penalty many cities impose on accessory dwelling units larger than 750 square feet, and SB 1014, requiring cities to disclose infrastructure requirements within 30 days of a housing application. A UC Irvine study also found inclusionary zoning cuts homebuilding by roughly a third.
