FAIR Plan Wildfire Exposure Hits $700 Billion
California’s housing story this summer is increasingly an insurance story. The state’s insurer of last resort is now carrying roughly $700 billion in wildfire exposure, and the cost of that risk is landing on ordinary homeowners and investors through higher premiums, longer holding costs and thinner flip margins. At the same time, mortgage rates have climbed to an eleven-month high, pending sales have slipped to a three-month low, and builders are still buying demand with double-digit incentives. New-home sales did edge higher in June, and buyers who stay in the market are finding real negotiating room on listings that have lingered.
In The News:
Claims Journal — Luxury Homes Are Raising Risks for California’s Insurer of Last Resort (July 22, 2026) — FAIR Plan residential policies have grown 151% since September 2022 while risk exposure jumped 234% to roughly $700 billion. Nine ZIP codes carry about 7% of that liability, including a Lake Tahoe ZIP at $9 billion and Lake Arrowhead near $7 billion. After the 2025 Los Angeles firestorms, the state cleared a $1 billion assessment on insurers, half of which can be recovered from policyholders.
Redfin — Pending Home Sales Fall to 3-Month Low (July 23, 2026) — Pending sales fell 1.3% week over week to a three-month low in the four weeks ending July 19 as the weekly average mortgage rate hit an eleven-month high of 6.55%. The median sale price rose 2.5% year over year to $408,795, while new listings ticked up 0.4%. San Jose posted the steepest price decline among major metros at 3.3%.
Freddie Mac — Mortgage Rates Average 6.58% (July 23, 2026) — The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.58%, up from 6.55% a week earlier but still below the 6.74% recorded a year ago. The 15-year fixed averaged 5.96%. Freddie Mac noted that borrowers who compare offers from multiple lenders can save thousands over the life of a loan, a margin that matters more as rates grind higher.
Mortgage News Daily — New Home Sales Regain Some Lost Ground (July 24, 2026) — Sales of new single-family homes rose 1.6% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 628,000, though the pace remains 5.6% below a year ago. The median new-home price came in at $398,300. Inventory slipped to 485,000 units, leaving a 9.3-month supply, a cushion that keeps builders competing hard for every buyer.
National Mortgage News — PulteGroup closings, earnings fall, still beat expectations (July 22, 2026) — The builder reported second-quarter net income of $472 million as revenue fell 11% to $3.8 billion and closings dropped 8% to 6,997 homes. Average sales price slipped 3% to $544,000. Net new orders were the bright spot, rising 6.4% year over year, and management pointed to early signs of stabilization in select geographies.
