California real estate market update for September 2026

California Homes See Nation's Steepest Price Cuts

September 30, 2026

California’s housing market enters October caught between rising costs and rebuilding supply. Mortgage rates broke through 7.5% this week, the highest level since April 2024, adding pressure to already-stretched budgets even as the statewide median held near $901,000 in August. Yet the same forces cooling demand are handing buyers more room to negotiate: listings are climbing at their fastest pace in years, price cuts are running at their highest September share since 2018, and builders are pulling back in the priciest metros rather than adding to the glut. San Diego remains an outlier, still selling briskly above asking, while the Far North and Central Valley post the strongest year-over-year sales gains statewide.

In The News:

Realtor.com — Price Cuts Reach Yearly High as Inventory Nears Pre-Pandemic Levels (September 30, 2026) — Realtor.com’s September report found 20.8% of U.S. listings carried a price cut, the highest September share since 2018, while active inventory rose 5.4% year-over-year, narrowing the gap to pre-pandemic supply to just 9.1%. The West posted the steepest price-cut share of any region at 22.8%, with Los Angeles list prices down 5.9% and San Diego prices down 6.3% from a year earlier.

Mortgage News Daily — Mortgage Rates Officially Hit 7.5% (September 28, 2026) — The average 30-year fixed rate crossed 7.5% on Monday for the first time since April 2024, then climbed again to 7.58% the next day. Analyst Matthew Graham pointed to strong economic data and heavy bond-market supply rather than any single catalyst, noting rates kept rising even as oil prices retreated.

Zillow — The New Home Construction Boom Is Running Out of Steam (September 14, 2026) — National residential permits now sit 19.4% below the pre-pandemic trend line, the lowest mark this decade, as builders pull back after years of expansion. California’s biggest job markets bucked the national dip in permit counts, with Los Angeles issuing 30.6% more permits than a year earlier and San Jose more than doubling, though both remain well below pre-pandemic building levels.

California Association of Realtors — August Home Sales and Price Report (September 16, 2026) — C.A.R.’s August report put the statewide median at $901,420, up 1.6% from July, as sales rose 2.4% to a seasonally adjusted 269,620 units. The Far North led all regions with sales up 15% year-over-year, while Southern California sales slipped 4.8% even as its median price gained 2.9%. Homes sold in a median 28 days.

Redfin — San Diego County Housing Market Update: August 2026 (September 8, 2026) — San Diego County stayed a seller’s market in August, with the median sale price climbing 5.7% year-over-year to $961,781, nearly triple the national pace. Active listings fell 5.6% from a year earlier to just 8,709, about three months of supply, while more than a third of homes sold above their asking price.

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TNG Team

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