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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 9/1/10

Wednesday, September 1st, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

The MBA’s weekly survey shows mortgage applications increased 2.7% this week. SB1275, the foreclosure/modification bill, was rejected by congress in a 36-30 vote. Fannie Mae’s new rule regarding appraisal cutting takes effect today. Construction spending decreased 1 percent in July, according to the Commerce Department.

In The News:

Mortgage Bankers Association – “Mortgage Applications Increase as Rates Hit New Low in MBA Weekly Survey” (9-1-10)

“The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 27, 2010.  The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 2.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.  On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 2.3 percent compared with the previous week.”

Reuters - “Loan picture improves but troubles remain: FDIC” (9-1-10)

“The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp revealed some encouraging figures about the bank industry, saying the sector earned $21.6 billion during the quarter largely due to banks putting away less money to cover expected loan losses. During the first quarter, the industry earned $17.8 billion.”

San Francisco Chronicle – “Assembly rejects foreclosure/modification bill” (9-1-10)

“SB1275, which was rejected 36-30 late Monday, would have required lenders to provide homeowners with a fully considered loan modification decision prior to foreclosing. Unlike federal initiatives, it would have given homeowners the right to sue the lender if that process did not occur.”

Housing Wire – “Fannie’s appraisal cutting ban takes effect” (9-1-10)

“Fannie Mae’s new policy to reduce appraisal cutting takes effect today. If a lender is trying to sell the GSE a loan, they are now prohibited from changing the market value of a home on the request form. Fannie Mae said Tuesday if a loan servicer does not properly handle a troubled mortgage loan in a timely manner, it will demand compensation from the servicer for the mortgage.”

Housing Wire – “Fed buys $900 million of Treasury debt” (9-1-10)

“Dealers offered to sell the Fed $25.79 billion in debt. The three slices of debt purchased by the Fed include $131 million maturing Nov. 15, 2012; $345 million maturing Dec. 15, 2012; and $424 million maturing Jan. 31, 2013. At its meeting from earlier this month, the Federal Open Markets Committee directed the New York Fed to maintain the total face value of domestic securities held in the system open market account at about $2 trillion.”

Housing Wire – “DebtX July CRE loan value up to 79.4%” (9-1-10)

“The value of commercial loans priced by The Debt Exchange in July that collateralize commercial mortgage-backed securities rose to 79.4% of the original balance. DebtX said the value is up from 77.4% in June, marking the fourth-straight month of increases, and is higher than the 71.1% for the year-ago July. The values are based on loans priced by DebtX. In July, the company priced 57,801 CRE loans with an aggregate principle balance of $679.5 billion that collateralize 623 CMBS trusts.”

Bloomberg - “Construction Spending in U.S. Declined Twice as Much as Forecast in July” (9-1-10)

“The 1 percent drop brought spending to $805.2 billion, the lowest level in a decade, after a revised 0.8 percent drop in June that wiped out a previously estimated gain, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. Spending on federal government projects fell by the most in a year.”

Bloomberg - “Real Estate Premium Near Record to U.S. Bonds Signals Time to Buy Property” (9-1-10)

“Capitalization rates, a measure of real estate yields, averaged 7.22 percent in the second quarter, based on an index calculated by the National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries. That was 429 basis points, or 4.29 percentage points, higher than the yield on 10-year government bonds as of June 30, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It’s about 475 basis points higher than Treasury yields as of yesterday.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, the NAR reported that pending home sales increased 3.2 percent in one month. The average price of homes bought with mortgages funded by Freddie Mac increased 1.7% during the 2nd quarter of 2009. A wildfire north of Los Angeles threatened more than 12,000 homes and forced the evacuation of more than 4,300 people.

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189-TNG Radio – Christopher Thornberg 8-28-10

Friday, August 27th, 2010

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Christopher Thornberg

Founder and Principle of Beacon Economics


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September 17th, 2010, The Norris Group returns with its award winning event I Survived Real Estate 2010. The Norris Group has assembled an incredible line up of industry experts to discuss the state of REO from the inside. Topics will include regulatory intervention and aftermath, bulk buying, myths and facts, and opportunities emerging for real estate professionals. 100 percent of the proceeds support the Orange County affiliate of Susan G. Komen for the Cure. This event would not be possible without generous help from the following platinum partners: Foreclosure Radar and Sean O’Toole, the San Diego Creative Real Estate Investors Association and Bill Tan, Investors Workshops and Shawn Watkins and Angel Bronsgeest, Invest Club for Women and Iris Veneracion and Bobby Alexander, Claudia Buys Houses, The Business Press, Frye Wiles, MVT Productions, and White House Catering.

This week Bruce is joined by Christopher Thornberg. Christopher is the founding principle of Beacon Economics, and is widely considered to be one of California’s leading economic forecasters. He is an expert in economic forecasting, regional development, real estate dynamics and labor markets. He was one of the earliest and most adamant predictors of the housing crash and the recession that followed. In 2008, he was appointed chief economist for the California State Controller as well as the Controller’s Council of Economic Advisors. He serves on the advisor board of Paulson & Company Inc., one of Wall Street’s most successful hedge funds. Dr. Thornberg holds a PhD in business economics from the Anderson school of UCLA, and a BS in business administration from the state university of New York at Buffalo.

Public sentiment tends to wander between optimistic and pessimistic. No one wants to believe that this recovery might be too slow. Instead, people either hope for a rapid recovery, or they panic over a double dip. Earlier in the year, people were far too optimistic about a rapid recovery, and now they are in a state of unwarranted pessimism. Thornberg does not believe that either of those beliefs are true. He believes that slow growth is most likely going to occur.

Expectations can have an economic impact. Forecasters tend to think that the stock market is a leading indicator of the economy. Paul Samuelson once said “The stock market has predicted 9 out of the last 5 recessions.” We must remember that when we see market swings, it has a material impact on the economy. When the market dumps 15 percent, you are literally talking about a couple trillion dollars in wealth disappearing from the U.S. economy. That does have an influence on spending, particularly at the top end of the income scale. From that perspective, unwarranted worries can create a self fulfilling prophecy and slow the economy.

Over the last 20 years, we have seen unprecedented volatility in the equity markets. We would help ourselves by putting in some rules to dampen that volatility. Thornberg describes the problem as “the tail controlling the economic dog”.

GDP growth in the 90s was caused by stocks. In 2000, it was from real estate equity withdrawal and profits. Currently, our limited growth seems to come from stimulus money. Thornberg does not believe there will be any sort of big driver, and that is part of the reason we will have a slow recovery.

In the mid 70s, there was a consumer let down with the oil shock. Consumers responded to the loss of jobs, high energy prices, and the overall pessimism by cutting back on spending, and that caused a down turn. At the back end of that down turn, consumers who were under-spending started to ramp up their income. They then bought the car they would have bought during the down turn plus another one. That caused a huge surge in consumer spending growth.

Similarly, in the 2001 down turn, we saw a cycle in business spending. Business spending was very high, and then it collapsed. When business spending came back in 2002, we pulled out of the down turn and we got back to normal growth in 2003.

This time, there is no single great source that will cause us to bounce back. The economy was vastly overheated in 2008, and the pain of the down turn was severe, because the pull back occurred in multiple markets at one time. The government got massively involved in both monetary and fiscal policy. In their attempt to stabilize things, they prevented our imbalances from returning to a steady state.

Consumer spending should represent about 80 percent of income, and the other 20 percent should go to savings, taxes and a couple other things. In the midst of the asset bubble, we went from 80 to 84 percent. That extra 4 percent represents approximately half a trillion dollars in excess spending. Savings rates have popped back up in the midst of the crisis, which is good, but the pain of that decline in consumer spending was profound on the economy. As a result, part of the stimulus package was a huge cut in taxes. Right now, Americans are the lowest tax rate in 65 years. This has steadied consumer spending at 82 percent of income. The government is running a deficit of $1.4 trillion per year. At some point, the government will have to raise taxes. When they raise taxes, consumers are going to have to cut back on spending, and that will slow the economy.

We have a lot of deleveraging going on. 23 percent of Riverside is not making a house payment. Because so many people aren’t making their house payments, Bruce believes that people will have plenty of money to spend. Thornberg disagrees, because he does not feel that the money saved from not paying mortgages will amount to that much. Mortgage payments in the U.S. amount to 15 percent of income. Thornberg believes the non-payment of mortgages only adds up to .5 percent of personal income. That is a much smaller number than what happens to personal income as a result of the rise and fall of the unemployment rate.

Bruce explains that in California, a house payment typically represents 40% of someone’s gross. When they don’t make mortgage payments, that saves money, and that fuels GDP. Thornberg understands this, but 1/3 of homeowners in California homeowners own their house free and clear. Of the 2/3rds that are left, the majority are still making their payments. You only have 10 percent of the people in the state that aren’t making their payments. Thornberg does believe that this will make a small difference in the economy, but it is not as significant as people make it out to be.

Bruce asks, “What does seeing a 2.6 10-year T-build tell you?” Thornberg laughs and exclaims that the t-builds are in a bubble. You got to call it as you see it. Sometimes that works and sometimes it doesn’t. A few years ago, Thornberg claimed the housing market was going to crash, and he was right. One of the worst forecasts Thornberg ever made happened 3 months ago when he claimed that interest rates would never go lower. Thornberg has seen some crazy things happen lately. He never could have forecasted this. He believes these things have been driven by worries about sovereign debt in Europe, and a potential for a double dip. This is why Bruce asked his question about Thornberg’s expectations for the t-build, because people’s fears have skewed a lot of categories.

The raw ratio of prices to income will show you that we have not seen a level of retraction that brings us back to the levels we were at in 2000. Prices are still high in comparison to income, but once you adjust for interest rates, affordability levels have never been this great. We have never seen such an affordable housing market when considering current interest rates. Thornberg does not believe that the current interest rates will be maintained. They are going to rise, but he wonders when they will rise and how fast they will rise. If we are on the path to recovery, we could have problems if the credit bubble pops rapidly. If interest rates increase 4.5% to 6.5% in 6 months, then it will severely damage the housing market.

Fannie Mae is planning to hire 1,000 REO agents in Southern California. This tells Bruce that Fannie intends to release inventory; perhaps as soon as the 4th quarter. FHA has 73,000 REOs and 555,000 people that are 90 days late. There are a lot of properties that the bank has not released, but we also have to be concerned about the properties that the banks are not foreclosing on yet. There are probably 4 to 5 million homeowners that are behind on their payments.

Because affordability is so good right now, there will probably be some demand for the shadow inventory. One thing that distinguishes California from states live Nevada, Florida and Arizona is the fact that we did not over build. Nevada and Florida have years of home supply.

Rental vacancies typically stay high after a recession, but vacancies are actually starting to drop quite quickly, especially in California. Thornberg does not believe there will be enough inventory in California, so when the shadow inventory gets released, it will probably be easily picked up. Thornberg believes we will have a stronger housing market over the next couple years because of the inventory levels in relation to the population. It surprised Bruce to hear Thornberg speak so positively about the housing market.

Bruce and Thornberg do not believe we have pent-up demand, but Thornberg does believe that we have a lack of overall supply. When you look at permits over the past 20 years, the numbers show that we have not built enough housing relative to the population growth since 1995. Even in the midst of the bubble, Thornberg believes we were only building an amount that was appropriate for our population growth.

The builders do not have many vacant unsold homes right now, but their competition, which is an REO, is going to be much to competitive. This competition will force them to build smaller houses. Going forward, Bruce believes that vacant homes are going to increase a tremendous amount. Thornberg does not believe prices will come back a lot.

The kind of building going on right now is on the basis of already finished lots. The inventory of finished but unused lots is disappearing rapidly. In the peak of the housing bubble, local economies ramped up fees. Given what people were willing to pay, there were enormous profits to be made in the sale of a new home. Now that the bubble is gone, cities need to reduce their fees, but they probably won’t. Right now, local governments have a lot of pressure placed on them because of the down turn in revenues. Thornberg believes we will have crowded housing, because many people will not be able to purchase new property due to the excessive fees.

In a down turn, people tend to start living together rather than moving out. This is actually starting to change, which is part of the reason why apartment vacancies are going down. We are not in a strong recovery, but it has been a year since the recession ended. Things have stabilized, and fears are beginning to lift.

Overall, jobs are down right now, but that is mainly due to losses in the public sector. Construction jobs actually bounced a decent amount from June to July. Thornberg does not believe the construction industry will come roaring back to what is was like 5 or 6 years ago, but we are seeing more stability in that sector.

Here are the pros and cons of our current situation: On the con side, we still have problems in the housing market. Many people are not making payments and many are underwater. California has some of the worst unemployment rates, which means we have more to recover from. On the pro side, prior to this down turn, this state was driven by internal demand. This means that our demand was coming from consumers with excessive amounts of false housing equity. At the same time, our external sources of growth were getting hammered. The dollar was over-valued and housing was too expensive, which made it hard to run a business here. Those internal sources of demand will not come back. On the other hand, with a weaker U.S. dollar and cheaper housing, other things will begin to improve. Despite our high unemployment rate, people are beginning to migrate back to California.

The percentage of homeownership is probably headed down. Thornberg does not believe that this is a real concern. He does not believe there are any particular benefits for owning vs renting.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

Thank you for being a Gold Sponsor for I Survived Real Estate 2010: Adrenaline Athletics, Benton Investment Group, Community RE-Invest Group, Delmae Properties, Elite Auctions, Entrust California, Everlast Photography, Inland Empire Investors Forum, Keystone CPA, Landwood Title, Las Brisas Escrow, Leivas Financial Services, Mike Cantu, North San Diego Real Estate Investors Association, Northern California Real Estate Investors Association, Personal Real Estate Investor Magazine, Realty 411 Magazine, San Jose Real Estate Investor Association, Rick and LeeAnne Rossiter, San Jose Real Estate Investor Association, Starz Photography, Summit Solutions, Tony Alvarez, Wealth Point, and Westin South Coast Plaza.

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186-TNG Radio – Daniel Phelan 8-7-10

Friday, August 6th, 2010

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Daniel Phelan

CEO of Pacific Southwest Realty Services


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September 17th, 2010, The Norris Group returns with its award winning event I Survived Real Estate 2010. The Norris Group has assembled an incredible line up of industry experts to discuss the state of REO from the inside. Topics will include regulatory intervention and aftermath, bulk buying, myths and facts, and opportunities emerging for real estate professionals. 100 percent of the proceeds support the Orange County affiliate of Susan G. Komen for the Cure. This event would not be possible without generous help from the following platinum partners: Foreclosure Radar and Sean O’Toole, the San Diego Creative Real Estate InvestorsAssociation and Bill Tan, Investors Workshops and Shawn Watkins and Angel Bronsgeest, Invest Club for Women and Iris Veneracion and Bobby Alexander, San Jose Real Estate Investors Association and Geraldine Barry, Claudia Buys Houses, Frye Wiles, MVT Productions, and White House Catering.

This week Bruce is joined by Daniel Phelan. Daniel is the CEO of Pacific Southwest Realty Services. He is responsible for this company’s mortgage operations. Pacific Southwest Realty Services is an investment firm focused on commercial real estate. It represents and advises both real estate clients and institutional investors in debt. It is involved in equity placement, strategic planning, property sales and loan administration.

In 2006, Daniel’s company was heavily involved in the financing of commercial real estate. His company financed $1.5 billion of commercial real estate per year for every year of the boom.

Daniel does not think that investors perceived a high level of risk in the prices they were paying for real estate during the boom. Prices had been steadily increasing since July 1993. Commercial real estate had a continuous growth pattern all the way to 2007. If you had only been in the business for 15 years and had only seen positive growth, then you probably wouldn’t feel at risk.

The lending side was probably looking at the boom similarly. There was a lot of competition, because Wall Street entered the market. There was a tremendous amount of debt capital in the market, and it was extremely competitively priced. These prices made real estate investments that much more enticing. People saw the need to get their capital invested in some form, and commercial real estate was perceived to be a safe investment.

In 2006 to 2007, down payments were reduced because of the confidence of the market. Borrowers were getting into commercial properties with only 20 percent. Historically, you could probably get most properties financed with 25 to 30 percent down. However, 75 percent is considered to be a more appropriate and safe number.

There are two tiers of debt. Most banks is recourse, but most non-bank debt is nonrecourse. 99.9 percent of the debt for life insurance companies and pension funds is nonrecourse. Because Daniel’s company works with these kinds of firms, they could only look to the real estate for satisfaction of a debt following a default. From 2005 to 2007, many banks backed off their recourse loans and went nonrecourse.

The source of capital during the boom came from portfolio lenders, such as life insurance companies and banks, and nonportfolio lenders, such as securitized lenders and Wall Street lenders. If you were trying to accomplish high loan to value with lower rates, then you probably got involved in the commercial mortgage backed securities market. You would expect a rate of 110-120 over treasuries. Those loans would be pooled into $2 billion pools, and then sold on Wall Street.

Mortgages made near 2006 are not doing well right now. Underwriting standards were very loose at that time. The default rates for those issuances are above 5 percent, and sometimes above 10 percent.

Mezzanine financing can be compared to second trust deed. It is a debt placed behind a first trust deed. It is used for taking cash out of a property, cover tenant improvements, or buy out existing partners to recapitalize the partnership.

During the boom, mezzanine debt could be taken at a 7 to 8 percent rate on the low end. The mezzanine debt today is going for above 10 percent. It is not available for the same loan to value rate. In 2006, you could get 90 percent loan to value. Today, you would be lucky if you got mezzanine debt for 65 percent loan to value. You may not be able to get it at all.

If you intend to occupy a commercial building, you could get 90 percent financing from a bank loan. This is only available to owner occupants, and it is only available in a purchase situation, not a refinance situation. If you were buying a multi-tenant investment property, you probably would get financing from life insurance companies. Banks are beginning to come back to the commercial investment market. With these deals, banks are looking for a full relationship with bank accounts and operating accounts. During the second quarter, the commercial mortgage backed securities market starting coming back. However, this market is not coming back quickly. Daniel’s company funded its first two cmbs loans since 2007.

Daniel’s company always looks at the operating history and income of a property, and then he makes a reasonable expectation of how well that property will operate over time. The projection for those properties is typically not very good. In 2006-07 we had not been hit by unemployment. Most tenants were performing well, and occupancy rates were above 90 percent.

Many commercial loans are coming due in 2012. These loans were underwritten in 2002. These loans are going to cause a big problem. In 2002, underwriting standards were not that “out of wack”. Prices have come down a lot, but they are still greater than what they were in 2002. Daniel think there is plenty of capital to refinance the debt on those properties, and in many cases, lenders are willing to roll over those loans. The bigger problem comes in during 2014 to 2017. During these years, you will have loans on properties with significantly diminished values. At that time, you may start having tenant default issues.

Construction on commercial real estate is not going to perform well. Daniel does not know of any bank that did a commercial construction loan in 2008-09. However, there are some banks now that are willing to loan on a multifamily property now.

Residential real estate is beginning to experience a large number of strategic defaults. Commercial loans are also beginning to default, but not as badly. Commercial property owners can make their payments so long as 70 percent of the tenants are making their payments. Commercial loans are made based on the ability of a property to make income. The commercial property owners that will experience difficulty are the ones that have let go of workers. They may have a large amount of space, but are only using a small portion of it. When their leases come due, these owners will probably move out to a smaller space. This will hurt larger commercial properties.

Most cap rates during the peak were around 6 to 7 percent. For multifamily properties and apartments, cap rates were around 5 percent. As of last year, most cap rates have moved up to 8 to 9 percent. The reason why we have not experienced a dramatic change in cap rates is because of Fannie and Freddy’s involvement.

Daniel believes we are going to see more problems in 2010 rather than improvement. Sales are going to start again, but they are going to have to pay 35 percent down rather than 25 percent.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

Thank you for being a Gold Sponsor for I Survived Real Estate 2010: Delmae Properties, Elite Auctions, Entrust California, Inland Empire Investors Forum, Keystone CPA, Las Brisas Escrow, Leivas Financial Services, Mike Cantu, North San Diego Real Estate Investors Association, Northern California Real Estate Investors Association, Personal Real Estate Investor Magazine, Realty 411 Magazine, San Jose Real Estate Investor Association, Tony Alvarez, and Westin South Coast Plaza.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 8/2/10

Monday, August 2nd, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

Alan Greenspan expressed concern that a decrease in home prices might cause the U.S. to slip back into recession. The Census Bureau estimates the homeownership rate will fall to 62% in 2012. Moody’s reports strategic delinquencies are falling on jumbo mortgages. Construction spending remained relatively flat with just a 0.1 percent increase last month.

In The News:

Bloomberg - “Greenspan Says Drop in Home Prices Might Bring Back Recession” (8-1-10)

“Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the slowing economic recovery in the U.S. feels like a ‘quasi-recession’ and the economy might contract again if home prices decline.”

Los Angeles Times – “Builders’ pricing strategies are aimed at creating sales urgency” (8-1-10)

“The first bump occurs when ground is broken for the project. Then builders up the ante when the streets go in, and again when the model homes begin to take shape. Prices go up for a fourth time with the big opening splash.”

USA Today – “Homeownership rate continues to slide” (8-2-10)

“Fresh projections say the rate could plummet to about 62% as early as 2012 and almost certainly by the end of the decade. Homeownership rates haven’t been that low since they hit 61.9% in 1960. The share of households that own their homes has been sliding since the housing bubble burst in 2006. The rate fell again in the second quarter of this year to 66.9% — the lowest since 1999 — from a peak of 69.4% in 2004, the Census Bureau says.”

Mercury News – “June construction activity rises 0.1 percent” (8-2-10)

“Construction spending rose 0.1 percent in June, the Commerce Department reported Monday. While that was better than the decline economists had forecast, the government sharply revised down its estimate of activity in May to show a drop of 1 percent rather than the 0.2 percent dip initially reported.”

Housing Wire – “Strategic Defaults Falling on Jumbo Mortgages, Relative to Smaller Loans: Moody’s” (8-2-10)

“According to a weekly credit report from Moody’s Investors Service, jumbo mortgage delinquencies, in this case delinquencies on mortgages over $1m, are almost equal to mortgage delinquencies for smaller mortgages. The agency monitors the risk of default across mortgages that are bundled into bonds and sold as residential mortgage-backed securitizations.”

Housing Wire – “2010 CMBS Modifications Outnumber the Last 2 Years Combined: Trepp” (8-2-10)

“As delinquency increases begin to slow, modifications on CMBS loans are accelerating, according to the analytics firm, Trepp. Further, halfway through 2010, modifications have already passed the amount done in 2008 and 2009 combined. The rate of modifications is set to triple the rate in 2009. In the first seven months of 2010, there have been modifications done on $12.1bn worth of CMBS loans, a 37% increase from the $8.8bn done in all of 2009 and more than four times the $354m modified in 2008, according to Trepp.”

Housing Wire – “Government Refi Wave Could Cost GSE Bondholders $350bn: KBW” (8-2-10)

“Recent record-low mortgage rates have sparked fears amongst investors that a government-driven refinancing wave would boost prepayment speeds back to 2003 levels. According to KBW, there is a cost to such a policy shift, contrary to what supporters of action have said. The agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market trades a premium of almost seven basis points. If all borrowers refinanced into the current mortgage rates, roughly $350bn would transfer from bondholders to borrowers, equaling $75bn annually.”

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 7/26/10

Monday, July 26th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

The Commerce Department new home sales increased 23.6% last month. Statistics from LPS show show 9.39% of all loans were delinquent by more than 30 days. The national vacancy rate on multifamily properties  decreased to 7.8%, according to BarCap. A survey from Campbell Survey suggests that home prices will continue to fall.

In The News:

CNN - “New home sales rebound 24%” (7-26-10)

“New home sales increased 23.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 330,000 last month, up from an downwardly revised 267,000 in May, the Commerce Department reported Monday. Sales year-over-year fell 16.7%.”

CBIA - “Housing Starts Rise Again in June, CBIA Announces” (7-26-10)

“According to statistics compiled by the Construction Industry Research Board (CIRB), permits were pulled for 4,238 total housing units in June, up 19 percent from the same month a year ago and up 34 percent from May. It was the largest monthly total since December of 2008 when 4,658 total permits had been issued. Permits for single-family homes totaled 2,628, down 9 percent from June 2009 but up 33 percent from the previous month, while multifamily permits totaled 1,610, up 140 percent from a year ago and up 35 percent from May.”

Wall Street Journal – “Mortgage Delinquencies Fall in June, Still Near Record Highs” (7-26-10)

“Some 9.39% of all loans were 30 days or more past due, down from 9.54% in May, according to LPS Applied Analytics, which tracks loan data. An additional 3.69% of mortgages were in some stage of foreclosure, down from 3.72% in May and the record high of 3.81% in March.”

Housing Wire – “Multifamily Rental Demand Catching up to Supply: BarCap” (7-26-10)

“The multifamily net absorption rate, or the amount of space leased after deducting the amount of supply, increased by more than 46,000 units in Q210, the highest increase in 10 years, according to BarCap. The national vacancy rate on multifamily properties also decreased to 7.8% from 8% over the same time”

Housing Wire – “As FHA Mortgage Volume Increases From 2009, Serious Delinquencies Spike” (7-26-10)

“The rate of seriously delinquent mortgages backed by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) declined slightly from May to June, but the gross number of mortgages that are either 90 or more days past due or in foreclosure increased 35% year-over-year. According to the FHA June single-family operations report, the total volume of mortgage in-force increased more than 24% to 6.4m in June compared to the same month one year ago. The total value of unpaid FHA mortgages was $865.5bn in June, up 30.3% from $663.8bn one year ago and up 3.3% from $837.8bn in May.”

Housing Wire - “The New Math Surrounding HAMP Doesn’t Add Up” (7-26-10)

“There is no other way to say this: we’re being lied to. Willfully. Anyone who managed to read headlines around the U.S. Treasury’s latest HAMP report card last week would likely have thought the program a huge success –- with more than one media outlet trumpeting impossibly miniscule re-default rates among permanent HAMP mods. At HW, we chose not to run with the HAMP redefault numbers except to note that Treasury officials had added them into the latest report card. And this choice was made with purpose: we knew these numbers were fake. Nobody gets a 1.7% redefault rate 6 months after modification –- not even Uncle Sam”

Housing Wire – “Campbell Survey: Housing Prices Drop in June and Will Continue to Fall” (7-26-10)

“A 32% plummet in new home sales in May correlates with a drop in overall homebuyer activity, although updated data out today from the Census Bureau shows a nearly 24% surge in new home sales in June.”

Housing Wire – “Monday Morning Cup of Coffee” (7-26-10)

“The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) took receivership of seven banks last week with a combined cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) of $468.2m. It brings the total closings in 2010 to 103 banks. At this time last year, there were 64 closings. Bank failures in 2009 took until October to pass 100.”

Housing Wire – “MIT-Harvard Study: Foreclosure drops house value by 27%” (7-26-10)

“A foreclosure reduces the value of a house by 27%, on average, and accounts for a much steeper price drop than other forced sales, according to a study by an Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) economist and two Harvard University researchers. In comparison, when a house is sold after the death of an owner, the price drops 5% to 7% on average. When an owner declares bankruptcy, the value sinks 3%, according to the report.”

Bloomberg - “U.S. Small-Business Aid May Create $300 Billion of `Junk’ Loans” (7-26-10)

“The U.S. Senate may vote this week on a bill to funnel $30 billion of capital to community banks, whose business customers typically are small firms. Banks could leverage the sum to make $300 billion in loans that create jobs, according to a Senate summary. That could more than double the commercial and industrial loans at eligible banks as of the first quarter, according to data compiled by KBW Inc.”

Orange County Register – “Owners rush to sell O.C. homes” (7-26-10)

“Orange County housing inventory grew by the largest amount so far this year, adding an additional 418 homes in the past two weeks and now totals 11,235. The market has not breached the 11,000 mark since the beginning of April 2009. Last year at this time the inventory was at 8,895 homes, 2,340 fewer than today. The inventory has not stopped growing at all this year as more and more pent up homeowners have opted to place their homes on the market at unrealistic levels.”

Orange County Register – “O.C. distressed homes up 35%” (7-26-10)

“Last year at this time, there were 2,616 distressed homes on the market, 841 fewer than today. The number of foreclosures within the active listing inventory increased by 35 homes in the past two weeks from 578 to 613 … Short sales, where a homeowner attempts to sell a home for less than the total outstanding loans against a home, requiring lender approval, increased by 115 homes over the past two weeks and now total 2,844.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, the quarterly homeownership rate was 67.3 percent. The average rate on 30-year fixed mortgages was 5.2 percent. The state Senate approved a budget package that was believed to be capable of closing the state’s $26.3 billion deficit.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 7/21/10

Wednesday, July 21st, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

MDA DataQuick reports 70,051 Notices of Default were filed during the second quarter. The weekly survey from the MBA shows mortgage application volume increased by 7.6 percent this week. Some analysts fear the new financial reform may significantly damage the mortgage industry. The LAEDC believes Orange County will experience a building boom next year.

In The News:

DQNews - “California Mortgage Defaults Hit Three-Year Low; Foreclosures Rise” (7-21-10)

“A total of 70,051 Notices of Default (”NODs”) were filed at county recorder offices during the April-to-June period. That was down 13.6 percent from 81,054 for the prior quarter, and down 43.8 percent from 124,562 in second-quarter 2009, according to San Diego-based MDA DataQuick.”

Mortgage Bankers Association – “Interest Rate Drops Spur Refinance Applications in Latest MBA Weekly Survey” (7-21-10)

“The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 16, 2010. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 7.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 19.5 percent compared with the previous week, which included the Independence Day holiday.”

Housing Wire – “The Nickel and Dime Impact of Financial Reform on Mortgage Servicing” (7-21-10)

“there are several aspects that directly apply to the mortgage servicing industry, and this is mainly due to several minor points through out the reform that add up to one big problem: COST. Considering that the entire bill is drafted as a systemic de-risking manifesto, these changes may actually streamline operations, not work against it. So it’s likely margins will improve, right? No, the biggest impact of the financial reform will be to nickel and dime servicers. As a research note from Deloitte says, ‘it is no exaggeration to suggest that Dodd-Frank will trigger a realignment that is set to challenge financial firms in fundamental ways. They will likely have to reexamine their business models.’”

Housing Wire – “Dodd-Frank Reform Bill Extends Tenant Act through 2014″ (7-21-10)

“PTFA, originally enacted in May 2009, allows renters whose landlords have lost their properties to foreclosure the right to stay in the home for 90 days after the foreclosure or through the term of their lease. Without the new extension in the financial reform bill, the law would have expired at the end of 2012.”

Bloomberg - “U.S. Regulatory Bill May `Flash Freeze’ Asset-Backed Market, Industry Says” (7-21-10)

“The U.S. financial-regulation bill may halt the already diminished market for asset-backed securities by increasing liability risk for credit raters, a securitization-industry group and bank analysts said. The legislation, set for signature by President Barack Obama, eliminates credit-rating companies’ shield from lawsuits when underwriters include their assessments in documents used to sell debt. Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings have already told Wall Street that because of an increased risk of being sued, they will no longer let underwriters use ratings in bond-registration statements.”

Bloomberg - “U.S. Mortgage Brokers Get Criminal Check, Tests Under New Rules” (7-21-10)

“Brokers in the nation’s most populous state will be required by July 31 to have passed criminal-background and credit checks, as well as licensing exams. California, along with about a third of U.S. states, previously didn’t require mortgage sellers to have individual licenses. Brokers will be assigned identification numbers to enable regulators and borrowers to track their lending histories.”

Orange County Register – “Forecast: O.C. homebuilding up 51% in ‘11″ (7-21-10)

“Orange County builders will start a home construction surge next year, growing the number of building permits filed for future construction by 51% vs. this year’s expected total. That’s a bold projection — especially considering all the mid-summer angst about the economy — within the Los Angeles Economic Development Corp.’s latest regional forecast. LAEDC sees Orange County builders pulling permits for 2,600 units of housing in total for this year. And that’s a 19% improvement above last year’s highly depressed level. Local building permits have fallen 5 out of the past 7 years.”

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 7/20/10

Tuesday, July 20th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

The MBA reports independent mortgage bankers and subsidiaries made an average profit of $606 on each loan they originated in the first quarter of 2010. Statistics from the Commerce Department show housing starts fell 5% from May. FHA may soon require borrowers to have at least a 580 FICO score to buy a home with a minimum 3.5 percent down payment. First and second mortgage default rates declined to 3.3% and 2.4%, according to Experian.

In The News:

Mortgage Bankers Association - “MBA Study Shows Mortgage Banker Production Profits Dropped in First Quarter of 2010″ (7-20-10)

“Independent mortgage bankers and subsidiaries made an average profit of $606 on each loan they originated in the first quarter of 2010, down from $890 per loan in the fourth quarter of 2009 and $1,088 in the first quarter of 2009, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA)’s 1st Quarter 2010 Mortgage Bankers Production Survey released today”

CNN - “New home construction drops, but outlook brightens” (7-20-10)

“New home construction fell to an 8-month low in June, but there were indications of increased activity in coming months, the government said Tuesday. Housing starts fell 5% from May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 549,000 last month, the Commerce Department said. That was the lowest rate since October 2009.”

Inman - “FHA raising FICO floor, reducing seller concessions” (7-20-10)

“FHA borrowers will soon need a 580 FICO score in order purchase a home with the minimum 3.5 percent downpayment, and won’t qualify for the program at all if they have a score below 500. Federal housing officials are moving closer to implementing several policy changes announced in January that will also reduce the maximum allowable seller concession on FHA-backed loans from 6 percent to 3 percent and tighten underwriting standards for manually underwritten loans.”

Housing Wire – “First Mortgage Default Rate Plunges 40% from 2009: S&P” (7-20-10)

“First mortgages led an overall decline in credit defaults in June, according to the Standard & Poor’s/Experian indices today. First and second mortgage default rates declined to 3.3% and 2.4%, respectively in June, based on information from Experian’s consumer credit database. First mortgage default rates slipped 5% from May and 45.2% from a year earlier, while second mortgage default rates were down 0.03% from May and 44.54% from a year ago.”

Orange County Register – “O.C. rent cuts triple U.S. declines” (7-20-10)

“For the second quarter, the average Orange County rent that apartment complex owners were ‘asking’ for was $1,506 — and that rent was falling at a 2% annual rate. That’s a drop roughly triple the national rate of decline of 0.7%. Orange County renters are enjoying rent declines that are tied for the 8th largest among 82 U.S. markets tracked. Bigger drops? Las Vegas, 4.2%; L.A., 2.9%; Phoenix, 2.8%; Westchester, N.Y., 2.6%; Oakland, 2.2%; Fairfield, Conn., and San Francisco, 2.1%. We note that Orange County and L.A. near the top of top rent cuts explains how Consumer Price Index data shows the biggest SoCal rent decline by this math since 1940.”

Orange County Register – “South Coast 2nd quarter home sales up 16%” (7-20-10)

“For Q2 (April – June) – DataQuick’s freshest stats — South Coast homebuying patterns showed: 574 homes were bought in the region in the period – +16% vs. a year ago. Sales counts in all Orange County beach towns ran +22% vs. a year ago.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, The Real Estate Roundtable estimated that about $400 billion a year in commercial loans would need to be refinanced over the next decade. A TARP investigator claimed the government bailout totaled $23.7 trillion. Default levels increased to 2,500 per month.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 7/2/10

Friday, July 2nd, 2010

Sources:
http://www.housingwire.com/2010/07/02/the-amazing-shrinking-unemployment-rate
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704898504575342593039984442.html?mod=WSJ_hps_MIDDLETopStories
http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2010/07/tax_flood_credits
http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2010/07/phs_drop
http://www.dsnews.com/articles/financial-reform-bill-passes-house-2010-07-01
http://www.dsnews.com/articles/fannie-mae-adopts-new-rules-for-pre-mod-income-verification-2010-06-28
https://www.efanniemae.com/sf/guides/ssg/annltrs/pdf/2010/sel1009.pdf
http://www.dsnews.com/articles/government-agencies-hold-46-of-reo-inventoryand-more-is-coming-2010-06-28
http://www.radarlogic.com/rlresearch/
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704895204575321003529487016.html?mod=WSJ_RealEstate_LeftTopNews
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704895204575321003529487016.html?mod=WSJ_RealEstate_LeftTopNews#articleTabs%3Dslideshow

Today’s News Synopsis:

The Department of Labor claims that unemployment decreased by 0.2 percent in May. President Obama signed the 3 month extension for the first time homebuyer tax credit. Distressed inventory has grown by 37% since October 1st 2009.

In The News:

Housing Wire – “Treasury Launches New Mortgage Help for Unemployed in July” (7-2-10)

“In June, the unemployment rate edged down to 9.5% from 9.7% in May, according the Department of Labor. Homeowners who qualify for the program have a first-lien mortgage originated on or before Jan. 1, 2009. The unpaid principal balance on a single-unit primary residence must be equal to or less than $729,750, and the mortgage has to be in default or in imminent default.”

Housing Wire – “Obama Signs Homebuyer Tax Credit Extension” (7-2-10)

“President Barack Obama this morning signed HR 5623, the ‘Homebuyers Assistance and Improvement Act of 2010,’ a three-month extension on the closing deadline for first-time home buyers to receive the tax credit.”

Housing Wire - “The Amazing Shrinking Unemployment Rate” (7-2-10)

“the nation’s unemployment rate fell from 9.7% in May to 9.5% in June. But the decline has nothing to do with an improvement in the nation’s labor force. If anything, the improvement suggests just how inadequate our government’s measures of employment really are. Why? Because 652,000 jobless Americans simply disappeared altogether in June, dropping out of the labor force and vanishing from any and all calculations.”

Inman - “HUD offers LGBT housing protections” (7-2-10)

“The nation’s housing agency announced a new policy Thursday to provide further assistance to lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender people who file complaints of housing discrimination. The federal Fair Housing Act, adopted in 1968 and amended in 1988, does not explicitly forbid housing discrimination based on sexual orientation or gender identity.”

Orange County Register – “Foreclosures on the rise” (7-2-10)

“Since October 1, 2009, the distressed inventory has grown by 37%. The active distressed inventory has increased from 2,346 homes on October 1st and now totals 3,217, levels not seen since May of 2009. The distressed inventory now represents 31% of the current active inventory. Last year at this time, there were 2,919 distressed homes on the market, representing 32% of the active inventory.”

Orange County Register – “Construction jobs at 14-year low” (7-2-10)

“In the first half of 2010, 114,000 U.S. construction workers lost their jobs; rest of the economy added nearly a million jobs. The industry added 49,000 jobs in March and April — than gave back 52,000 jobs in the last two months. The industry’s unemployment in June remained at 20.1 percent.”

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 6/28/10

Monday, June 28th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

Statistics from the Federal Reserve show the median borrower who ’strategically’ defaults doesn’t walk away from the mortgage until the amount owed exceeds the value of the home by 62%. McGraw-Hill Construction reports new construction starts increased 3% in April. According to CoreLogic, more than 11 million borrowers currently owe more on their mortgage than it is worth. Experian statistics show that 19 percent of all defaults in 2009 were strategic.

In The News:

Press Enterprise – “Crash opens market for luxury apartments” (6-26-10)

“While homebuilders are aiming at a more frugal consumer by cutting frills, some apartment developments in San Bernardino and Riverside counties are going upscale with features like granite countertops and hardwood floors and rents comparable to a home mortgage. The Lewis Group of Cos., an Upland-based developer of master-planned communities and apartments, figures that partly because many people have been burned by the housing crash, there is demand from prospective tenants moving out of houses who want and can afford a house-like apartment experience.”

Chicago Tribune – “Moral bankruptcy?” (6-27-10)

“Some have struggled unsuccessfully to keep their homes, and others have just walked away. Phillips decided he wanted revenge and was willing to ruin his credit record for it. When a short sale didn’t work out as planned, the 32-year-old Chicagoan opted for Chapter 7 bankruptcy liquidation, a move that will leave Phillips with little except for the scant possessions in his one-bedroom condo. It also will leave his lender, Chase, with little except for, eventually, a condo that has lost value. Meanwhile, Phillips continues to live there, mortgage-free.”

Los Angeles Times – “Undone by their dreams” (6-26-10)

“In the last four years, according to the San Bernardino County assessor’s office, 373 of the 941 single-family homes in Mission Crest — nearly 40% — have been foreclosed on. Thirty-five have gone through foreclosure more than once. Properties that once sold for nearly $400,000 are worth less than $200,000.”

Mercury News – “Santa Clara County assessor adds Web tools to help homeowners” (6-28-10)

“More than 100,000 residents will be given access to a special website — tracking home sales by neighborhood — where they can see precisely why the assessor’s office decided to assign a particular home its worth.”

Wall Street Journal – “How Far Underwater Do Borrowers Sink Before Walking Away?” (6-28-10)

“At what point do borrowers who owe more than their homes are worth decide to stop paying the mortgage? A new study from economists at the Federal Reserve Board aims to answer that question. The research found that the median borrower who ’strategically’ defaults doesn’t walk away from the mortgage until the amount owed exceeds the value of the home by 62%.”

Housing Wire – “Monday Morning Cup of Coffee” (6-28-10)

“The House Financial Services Committee issued a statement Sunday urging ‘bold action’ on the Dodd-Frank bill, the reconciled financial reform bill agreed to by a Congressional committee last week and named after Sen Christopher Dodd (D-CT) and Rep Barney Frank (D-MA). The final bill now travels to separate House and Senate votes and then, upon passage by Congress, to a Presidential signature into law.”

Housing Wire – “Surge in Nonresidential Building Boosts May Construction Starts” (6-28-10)

“New construction starts increased 3% from April to May, according to a monthly survey by McGraw-Hill Construction. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of total construction starts was $406.3bn in May, up 3% from $392,988bn in April. For the first five months of 2010, the unadjusted value of total construction starts was $162bn, down 2% from $165bn during the same period of 2009.”

Housing Wire – “The Slippery Slope of Short Sales” (6-28-10)

“More than 11 million borrowers currently owe more on their mortgage than it is worth, according to CoreLogic (CLGX: 18.11 +0.28%)—and this group of borrowers would love nothing more than to replace their current underwater mortgage with whatever the accepted ’short sale price’ is deemed to be. I don’t know that such a response on the part of borrowers could be deemed irrational, either. Many will ask themselves why they have a mortgage at a higher amount, especially if the bank is willing to sell the house to another buyer for less money.”

Housing Wire – “G20 Applauds Dodd-Frank Bill in Pushing its own Global Financial Reform” (6-28-10)

“The meeting of G20 nations concluded this weekend in Toronto with communiqués reflecting a strong support for the US financial reform, called the Dodd-Frank bill. Indeed, information released from the summit show a mix of ambitious plans for growth, mixed with further calls to reduce spending, especially among countries with higher debt burdens.”

Housing Wire – “Experian Finds 19% of Mortgage Defaults in Q209 are Strategic” (6-28-10)

“Of all mortgage delinquencies in the second quarter of 2009 (Q209), nearly one in five — or 19% — were considered strategic defaults, according to the latest study of default trends by information services firm Experian.”

Bloomberg - “Commercial Mortgages Fail to Pay as Lending Increases” (6-28-10)

“Between 50 percent and 60 percent of loans on skyscrapers, hotels, shopping malls and apartment complexes failed to refinance within a few months of their maturity date this year, Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysts said in a report. That compares with 15 percent to 20 percent in 2008, according to the analysts led by Roger Lehman in New York. About $11 billion in loans, or one-third of the 2010 total, had hit their expected maturity dates through late May.”

Bloomberg - “Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac Should ‘Unwind’ Portfolios, Pimco Says” (6-28-10)

“Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the housing-finance companies supported by U.S. taxpayers, should take advantage of demand for government-backed mortgage debt and sell their holdings, according to Pacific Investment Management Co. ‘Since the government’s going to want to unwind them at some point anyway, why not do it at the best levels ever?’ Scott Simon, the mortgage-bond head at Newport Beach, California-based Pimco, manager of the world’s biggest fixed- income fund, said in a telephone interview.”

Inman - “Top 10 states for pending tax credit closings” (6-28-10)

“NAR estimates as many as 180,000 homebuyers who were under contract by April 30 may miss the June 30 closing deadline. To prod lawmakers into find a way to extend the deadline, NAR released a breakdown of how many home purchases are affected in each state.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, Freddie Mac estimated that sales of new and existing homes might increase to an annual pace of 5.1 million in the 3rd quarter. Real Capital Analytics forecasted that $16 billion of office transactions would be completed by the end of 2009. The number of Orange County property owners disputing their taxes jumped 23% near last year’s deadline.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 6/24/10

Thursday, June 24th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

According to the CIRB, building permits were pulled for 3,088 housing units in May. Statistics from Freddie Mac show the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.69% last week. Several large banks, such as JP Morgan, are hiring thousands of mortgage officers in preparation to make more loans. TIGTA estimates the IRS awarded $26.7 million to fraudulent home buyer tax credit claims.

In The News:

CBIA - “California Housing Production Up in May, CBIA Announces” (6-24-10)

“According to statistics compiled by the Construction Industry Research Board (CIRB), permits were pulled for 3,088 total housing units in May, up 4 percent from the same month a year ago but down 6 percent from April. Permits for single-family homes totaled 1,902, down 19 percent from May 2009 and down 17 percent from the previous month, while multifamily permits totaled 1,186, up 87 percent from a year ago and up 17 percent from April.”

Market Watch – “Fixed-rate mortgages, 5-year ARMs hit lows: Freddie Mac” (6-24-10)

“The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.69% for the week ending June 24, down from 4.75% last week and 5.42% a year ago. Fifteen-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 4.13%, down from 4.20% last week and 4.87% a year ago.”

CNN - “Banks: We’re hiring so we can make more home loans” (6-24-10)

“Several banks are gearing up to do a whole lot more mortgage lending in the future. Even though new homes sales were at a historical low in May and the housing market in general is in the doldrums, these banks are hiring hundreds of loan originators, getting ready for what they believe will be a significant pick-up in lending. JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500), one of the nation’s largest lenders, is in the midst of hiring 1,200 mortgage officers.”

New York Times – “Fed Leaves Rates, Citing Overseas Threats” (6-24-10)

“The Federal Reserve’s policy-making arm said on Wednesday that it had decided to keep short-term interest rates near zero for ‘an extended period,’ citing challenges to economic growth, including the effect of new financial troubles abroad.”

Housing Wire – “Treasury Watchdog Says 1,295 Prisoners Claimed Homebuyer Tax Credit” (6-24-10)

“The Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration (TIGTA) released its latest interim audit (download here) on Internal Revenue Service (IRS) efforts to identify and prevent fraudulent homebuyer tax credits. All told, TIGTA’s investigation estimates the IRS paid out $26.7m in erroneous credits, less than 1% of the estimated $13.6bn in homebuyer tax credits claimed. Of the approximately 1.2m individuals who claimed the credit, TIGTA estimates 14,132 — about 1.1% — are erroneous or fraudulent claims.”

Housing Wire – “AIA Economist: Desperate Architects Find Themselves in Heated Bidding Wars” (6-24-10)

“We’ve certainly seen the pendulum swing in the other direction, probably even further back than where it started at over the last five years. Homes have gotten smaller. There is much more emphasis on not over investing or over improving. There’s a greater concern over affordability. What can I sell this for when I want to sell it and not trying to over extend the household in this economic environment.”

Housing Wire – “Regulators Find More than Half of Mortgage Modifications in Trouble Again” (6-24-10)

“Of the more than 1m modifications done in 2008 and 2009, 53% are either delinquent or in foreclosure again in Q110, according to a report from Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) and the Office of Thrift Supervision (OTS).”

Housing Wire – “FHFA Monthly 30-Year Mortage Rate Report Unchanged in May” (6-24-10)

“In its report, the FHFA said the average interest rate for a conventional, 30-year fixed-rate purchase mortgage with a principal of $417,000 or less was 5.12% in May, even from last month’s report.”

Bloomberg - “Betting Who’s Right on Home Prices: Baker vs Maki” (6-24-10)

“Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital, says the worst is over for the U.S. housing sector. Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, expects another painful decline. They reflect an almost even split among forecasters on the outlook for residential real estate, and whichever side turns out to be right will have made a call on more than just home prices. Housing will play a crucial role in the direction of the nation’s economy and global financial markets, just as it triggered a two-year recession that erased more than 8 million U.S. jobs and $37 trillion from world stock markets.”

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

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