Jeff Tumbarello joins Bruce Norris Part 2

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Jeff grew up in Stuart, Florida. He is a veteran of the US Marine Core and served in Desert Shield and Desert Storm as an Infantryman with First Battalion Third Marines.

In 2003, He founded the South West Florida Real Estate Investment Association with three other Southwest Florida real estate investors. As an investor himself, he has been a part of every type of real estate transaction and considers himself a local expert and source of data for current real estate trends in foreclosures. Jeff has also performed market metrics and product modeling for capital markets and private equity firms.

Jeff has contributed on Real Estate in general, Real Estate Statistics, Investing & Foreclosures on several media outlets including NPR, Bloomberg, Huffington Post, Wall Street Journal and many local stations like NBC, ABC, Wink and Fox.




Episode Notes:


Narrator  This is The Norris Group’s real estate investor radio show, the award-winning show dedicated to thought leaders shaping the real estate industry and local experts revealing their insider tips to succeed in an ever-changing real estate market hosted by author, investor, and hard money lender, Bruce Norris.

Bruce Norris  Hi, thank you for joining us. My name is Bruce Norris and once again, our guest this week is Jeff Tumbarello. I’m curious, were you one of the few people in the middle of euphoria and say 2005 and six that had a negative warning, it, were you telling people ‘Guys, you got to be really careful in this thing.’

Jeff Tumbarello  We would have meeting sponsors that would get up and pitch these free construction properties. And I would be shaking my head and rolling my eyes. And the other directors at the REIA would send me to the bar and get me out of the room. We were at the point where you were, you were getting $330,000 houses on leverage rented for 1500 a month. And, and, and you could tell the market had clearly peaked. I mean, we were in such a, in a frenzied rental demand. The same houses today are 240 in Renton for 1800. You know, and they were 12 to 1500 a month in the path of utilities a nd it just got to the point where a lot of these pre-construction deals will be pitched weren’t an investment. They were an act of lunacy, particularly with 90% financing.

Bruce Norris  There was, I spoke in San Diego there was a lady came up after my talk was, I’m talking about California crash in ’06. And it hadn’t happened yet. It was you know, fortunately, it was a precursor about what was about to this lady comes up and she’s kind of upset at me. She said you know I’m in escrow with a with a condo. That’s, we’re buying it for 780. And we were just going to hold it until it’s worth a million. And I said tell me about the condo, it’s a studio condo is 780 feet.

Jeff Tumbarello  Wow.

Bruce Norris  She’s paying $1,000 a square foot and her expectation, she was just going to hold on until she made a couple 100 grand. I said, Well, what makes you think it can’t be worth 300? She, when you have that mindset, it’s, it’s very interesting, because that at the time I’m doing a lot of speaking I’m doing and speaking to realtors, let’s say tell a realtor, this is all going to the whole business model you think is working for you in ’06 is not even going to be around. You got to be an REO agent. You know, I mean, that’s, that’s where it’s gonna be. It’s hard to hear that. So, anyway, I’m just curious if you had definitely sat in that seat that was kind of sure that you did. What…

Jeff Tumbarello  My favorite, you talk about moments in, in the Southwest Florida REIA, we had a meeting in ’07, I had just done a bunch of data work on a bunch of the first home notes in Lehigh. And I had carried forward the current pricing with Polly trend lines two quarters. And the irony was is this very wealthy guy who bid on this package, it was from KBW Wall Street auction house, and I came back and said, If you pay more than 9% of the unpaid balance, you’re going to lose money. And he looks at me, he goes, I just paid you all this money to tell me I can’t buy this and if I actually bid that they’re going to delete me off their list and never call me again. So, he eventually, did he bid 11%. And then the irony was all these groups kept going like 20 to 23 of the unpaid balance of these packages. And nobody ended up buying it. Because you know, the people that would pay that, they would bid that couldn’t actually close on it, they were just you know, it was. And then the even bigger irony was is because that was packages two, three, and four, which were the houses. And there was package one, which was all these lot loans. And if you did your due diligence on the lot loans, there was 2000 square foot sealed houses on those lot loans that the bank either threw in there to get somebody to buy it or just didn’t know, I don’t know which one it was. But the company I was working with caught it. And they, we ended up doing package one and did amazing. And you know, the net IRR is when you buy lots but there’s a couple houses thrown in are pretty good. So, you sell the houses first, repay the capital, and then work through it.

Bruce Norris  Right.

Jeff Tumbarello  So, you know, it was really an amazing time. But as far as all that data work, I really I’m like I know this, and I’ve got all these people that actually like and care about, they come to the meetings, I should tell them what I know. So, and so, I sat down, and I showed everybody we had a meeting, I was a presentation and I took the trend lines and I showed them 100% where the market was going and this is how wrong I was. I told them we were probably going back to 2003 pricing, some asset classes hit 99 pricing, but at the time, we probably lost 20 to 25% of the membership within a couple months because Jeff was negative, this was a solid planning it’s going to be fine, you know, and and when I actually said here’s the math, the math shows and they were still high inventory. The year over year numbers for sales counts were still down. So, we had a declining market. There just so many reasons to be, to be bearish. But you know, human beings, they just want it all to be better. You know, that’s, that’s actually a wonderful thing about us as a species is hope. You know, we actually are optimist for the most part, but you don’t want to do that with your treasure. If the numbers say differently.

Bruce Norris  Yeah, and again, and…

Jeff Tumbarello  We lost literally 20 to 25% of it, of the membership within probably three months. The irony is all those people within three years we’re back, like how did you know and like  I said it was going to happen.

Bruce Norris  Yeah. Yeah, that’s that’s the fun part. How do you see this market different than the last boom cycle?

Jeff Tumbarello  Last boom cycles, decoupled middle Ford became a mania. It was a mania of historical standards, just like the It This is like I just dumped numbers yesterday, our cash percentage year over year is going up. Now, May was our trough month for the pandemic, we only had like 1400 sales in Lee County in the MLS. I really watched the, I particularly watch the MLS and all through this. I really, you know, you talk about learning about numbers. I was really watching what I call the forward looking numbers, which is the pendings in the actives more than the sold because a sold is really 45 days ago that, that was it part of real estate that happened 45 days ago, and it made it to fruition, but the pendings, so I was watching the pendings and it will point we’re only about 50 a week for a couple weeks in May and then all sudden the pending started sur 50 a day. And then all sudden pending started surging and also were 120 a day 100. I’m like we’re fine. So, I knew by I knew by May the end of May we were okay here because I was, I was at that point do I pivot? Where do I go. But the difference this cycle versus last like right now our cash percentage is sitting at year to date. And this is dated information as of yesterda,y at 45% for January through April.

Bruce Norris  Wow.

Jeff Tumbarello  The year the same timeframe year before was 44. So, in today’s current market, today’s current rates, the you know, the cash percentage is still there, our volume, it is insane where it is right now. I mean, it is just totally insane. The volume is up, sales counts are u, average prices up, medium prices up, the average price is actually up higher, which shows the upper end of the market.

Bruce Norris  Right.

Jeff Tumbarello  You’ve got two booms happening right now, concurrently. You’ve got wealthy people relocating from California, I met a guy the other day, called me after the, called me after the REIA meeting. He didn’t make it. He had moved from LA, to Phoenix, to Austin, and now had moved here. Like you’ve pretty much done every California thing there is to do in the last three years. And he basically said he missed palm trees. That’s why he came here. But the it was a it was really interesting. But then then you’ve got the millennials and Gen Z, the pandemic when we made them stay home. And I mean, when I was in my early 20s, I was, I went home to sleep and do laundry. And that was pretty much the extent of my home life. And, and we made the millennials and particularly Gen Z because there’s difference. There are two different cohorts. We made them stay home and, and now they want to be homeowners. So, where there was a bias particularly in those generations to not own your own home. They had kind of lost sight of that. And when they had to stay home for six months and when you couldn’t choose which AC guy came to fix it. And you realize you can’t paint your wall black if you want to or you can’t buy three Rottweilers if you want to because the landlord says no, they realize it’s a lot better to control your own destiny. And it’s really a fundamental shift. So, when I see here, I see the entry level, particularly new homes is rocking. And then you’ve got the upper end rocking with primarily wealthy retirees coming down here, and the exciting part for retiree to any market is, is as a couple they bleed money in, but for the most part, they don’t work so they really don’t pull from the economy. They just bleed money in so, for every retired couple that moves to an area, they hire two to three people somebody’s got to mow their lawn ,they need to stock broker, or realtor gets them in and out. Their first couple years here they buy boats. Interesting thing with the baby boomers is Harley’s that we have some of the biggest Harley stores in the country. I always laugh if you go to particularly like tarpan point you’ve got all these retired Arthur Andersen accountants on their $50,000 Harley in their $1,000 leather outfits. You know living the life they always wanted to live in retirement. And they spend a lot of money in the beginning of their retirement cycle. And then that, you know that you see you had Harry Dent on there recently, and he does at age by spending chart. And as they get older, they spend a little less. But those first couple years with a retiree coming in the market, they spend a lot of money and and they usually buy a really nice home somewhere. And then they move into the retirement parks after the fact, when they get here and realize it’s not bad, you know that there’s nothing wrong with being here.

Bruce Norris  Right. I’ve never owned the well, I owned a boat once because I took it as a trade in real estate, but boat sales in California exploded after the pandemic. And I mean a guy that I had a friend that was talking to the owner of the boat place, and all of his sales got canceled in March. So, they had 70 sales, and they all got cancelled, he had 800, about 800 boats and stock. Three months later, you know, things in real estate, were doing well against what he said, I’m gonna go get that boat. He went back to the guy and the guy was happier than the clam. And he had 800 boats and now he has like 70 if he sold like two years of boats, and in three months. It’s quite…

Jeff Tumbarello  You can, you can do that with your family and social distance. So, it just really in a way the pandemic taught us about, you know, your, your family, your inner circle, whatever it is, you spend more time with them and you do things with them versus going to the club and cons, I actually really miss going to concerts. The, you know that those are a lot of fun because it’s really, it’s a fun experience. But vacations traveling abroad. I mean, you can but it’s a little scary. I have a friend who’s trying to get to Jamaica, and it’s not as much fun as it used to be to fly to Jamaica. I had some friends that were also went to Jamaica and ended up catching COVID the cool part is, is while they had to wait to get a clear test the all inclusive resort put them up for free. So, they ended up getting an extra seven days of vacation quarantine him and his wife doesn’t sound like the worst idea. S,o but yeah, it’s, it’s we’ve really changed our paradigm. Southwest Florida is really benefiting and I really call us and Texas to catcher’s mitts for all the capital. I, we’re, we’re you can actually evict somebody out of your property, which is, you know, California investors. I spoke with a gentleman who had sold a property in San Francisco, and he was buying three homes in Northport. And I was like, why would you do that? So, you know, you always you always, you know, in relation to what, you know, when you’re looking at investments on a national scale. He was a rent to value ratio of I think 34 in San Francisco, you know, the the median home value versus the annualized median rent the assets he was buying in Northport I think I came up with a 13 five so in his world, his cash flows up significantly. He actually has an as an owner some input into the property and, and his treasure to were in San Francisco, I don’t believe you have a lot of input into your property anymore. It’s, you know, in the, the, the equation is skewed a lot more for the tenants than it is the owner.

Bruce Norris  1Yeah, absolutely. Yeah. Somebody asked me a couple days ago in some kind of an interview, you know, one of the what were the reasons I left California and I said California favors occupancy versus ownership and that’s pretty scary to me.

Jeff Tumbarello  Which I think occupancy should have some rights too, I, you know, they’re, the laws are there for a reason. There are slum lords that shouldn’t be held accountable. But at some point if they don’t pay for six months, I should be able to get my house back.

Bruce Norris  Yeah, well, I have a $50,000 bill on one, one eviction.

Jeff Tumbarello  Wow.

Bruce Norris  Sewing how many people can assist somebody to stay in for as long as possible when they know the ropes that’s, so that’s why, yeah, you kind of get, that gets old you go okay. At Texas I, we bought some stuff in Texas after the we wrote The Crash. We had people go in there because Texas had never gone up. And I read their rental laws and it was pretty hilarious compared to California. It was very aggressive. As in you can change the locks if you don’t get paid, you can change the locks and actually said that.

Jeff Tumbarello  Oh, you can’t do that here.

Bruce Norris  No, I know that. No, I know that. I don’t I wouldn’t, I wouldn’t do it. But I’m just saying I want to be in a state where I actually having some rights and that’s, that’s a good thing. Jeff, how do you, how do you make your living today? What it, was it…

Jeff Tumbarello  Well, my wife and I own a company called Steelbridge Realty. We have one company called the Florida Land Team that we wholesale land from. I’ve got another vehicle we’re setting up called Real Cap Ventures where we’re going to go after pretty much the whole state most of the investor asset classes. We’ve got the Southwest Florida REIA. We kind of do a little bit everything. What I found In real estate, is that you, you really want to, you really want to be in a position to maximize your exposure to these cycles, you know, you’re, you have very limited time windows to make a lot of money, you can always make money in real estate, but you have some limited time events where you can make a lot of money and being wide and having some scale will help you get where you want to be.

Bruce Norris  How do you see this playing out? Okay, so do you see, do you see this similar to the ending of 2006, or a very different ending?

Jeff Tumbarello  Well, when you look at the cycle, it’s been a slow rise, this year is kind of been a hockey stick a little bit in price, okay, but it’s been a long slow rise. So, generally a long slow rise should be a long slow correction unless the hockey stick keeps going up. But I’m starting to see resistance to pricing everywhere, like even Cape Coral lots, there was a surge. And we you know, we’re we probably, I probably, half of my listings on land, on land are my own, my own purchases.

Bruce Norris  Right.

Jeff Tumbarello  And now I’m starting to see in my own stuff that I can’t push the market this hard. So, it’s the you know, at some point, and that’s a good thing. You really want that resistance, you just don’t want unchecked for 18 months prices to run up because the aftermath is probably going to be three times that, everybody points to ’05 here in this market. I want amazing time it was because they got to have sushi every day for lunch. And you know, they didn’t cook for a year. But you ended up with about a four year hangover from a one year party. I’d most wouldn’t do it again if given the opportunity here. They would eat ramen noodles hopefully for a year and set all that sushi. But when I look at this biggest question, inflationary backdrop, deflationary backdrop, we won’t know until all the unemployment runs out. And like the current, you know, you’ve also got a supply chain disruption.

Bruce Norris  Right.

Jeff Tumbarello  You’re trying to build houses, you’re definitely, you’re running up against that. Those are temporary things. All this money they mailed unless it turns into universal basic income long term. Everybody screaming inflation, which the contrarian in me wants to scream deflation, because why would you need to print all this money unless you were trying to hoard off inflation?

Bruce Norris  Right. You’re trying, well hoard off deflation, right?

Jeff Tumbarello  Yeah, that’s Yeah. But you know, if, if all sudden they turn this into UBI, universal basic income, you know, then that’s, that’s a game changer. But the velocity of money is always in that backdrop. Because of the amount of debt we have the Velocity of Money isn’t jumping, and the velocity of money jumps, that’s kind of inflation. So, when I look at this cycle, honestly, everybody wants to say this time is different. But we’ve never had a what? a $7 trillion Federal Reserve balance sheet, a $4 trillion, M1 monetary base, we really have never been here before. The foreclosures would be much different this cycle because Black Rock, all those, all the big entities would gobble those up, they’ll, Fannie Mae, Fannie Mae sold a lot of properties that didn’t go to foreclosure as notes to the national build the rent entities. So, this cycle will be markedly different. It also, in 2008, I was screaming hyperinflation, most sane people were screaming hyperinflation at the end, with all the money we were printing. Little did we know that money wasn’t actually leaving the system, it was really just pumping up the bank’s reserves to keep the system solvent. You know, the best analogy I heard on a podcast was blue dollars and red dollars. The red dollars are what Americans were using, the blue dollars a system used and then there was all over the world and currency swaps. But now we have actually printed money and given it to people. So, that is why everybody’s screaming inflation. But we’ll start to know Q3 really always forward looking numbers. You know, I can look at it as of today. Like as of yesterday, there’s 40 more homes on the market here in Southwest Florida, than there was yesterday, we have a half a month’s inventory. So, until we hit six months inventory, I’m not even really in, you know, at that point, when we hit six months inventory, I’m definitely risk off. But we’re so far from that. And there’s so much pent up demand. And then the amount of equity and cash in this world is scary. And there’s such a migration of cash to the Sunbelt areas that it’s really scary. And then, as far as the Sunbelt areas you’ve really got till 2025 for the baby boomers, and at that point, that trend starts to back off a little bit because they didn’t make a lot of babies early in life. So, they’re Gen X is a much smaller generation then then the baby boomers but then the millennials are really big. But, you know, personally I’m hoping for hyperinflation because in retirement, I want to buy some 13% CDs. You I’m really hoping the second coming of Paul Verhoeven, Paul Volcker cranks the rates up, I would really love in retirement to get some of them 13% CDs and not do anything, but it probably won’t happen because I want it to happen. But you really have to watch this. There’s so many moving parts. Nobody knows them all. The Federal Reserve has actually been pretty masterful. I also, like, especially I was scared to death when we put Janet Yellen in as the Fed chair. And she turned out to do a really good job.

Bruce Norris  Okay.

Jeff Tumbarello  I mean, in hindsight, she did a great job. But I was like, we basically have an academic who’s never had a job in her life running our monetary system. And she did a pretty good job. And Jerome Powell is definitely the, what I call the anti Alan Greenspan, you know, you had Greenspan speak back then. And he would try and decipher it. And everything he threw out was chum, for the most part, he, it was really hilarious back, if you go back and read his speeches, whatever he said it was 180 degrees is what they were about to do. He was always trying to trick the market, for the most part, who are they’re pretty transparent now. And I also think the Fed has an amazing amount of data. So, going forward, I think our monetary policy isn’t as an insane, as most thing, because I mean, look at where we are, if you would have told me in late 2008, we wouldn’t be sitting here if you’d have told me last year we’d be sitting here I was, I was already risk off. Even though we did start a new venture in the pandemic, I really didn’t have a lot of exposure, and we didn’t have much to do. So, alright, let’s you know, that’s when we really launched a land wholesaling business, and we scaled through it and marketed through it. And it turned out to be the most brilliant thing I’ve done. And we had, we did it a long time. So it’s, as far as this market, I don’t really know I’m watching the forward looking numbers I’m watching, I’ve got spreadsheets built, where I look at the close sales in relation to the pendings and the actives because it really tells the tale of where things are going. And you really watch that I still watch the foreclosures, the REIA hasn’t done a foreclosure report in almost over a year now and we were well known for that we were the we had the only functioning foreclosure database when the market blew up, because my wife’s little cousin built a program to match it. And the county with $700 million in payroll at the time couldn’t come up with the same thing it was really scary um, I even said that I’m like how does some dude from the hinterlands have this hinter I live in the country in Fort Myers out of some dude from the hinterlands have this and you guys don’t, but really where we, we really gained a lot of prominence was having that database. I haven’t even done the foreclosure report, because it’s just not worth it. I mean, okay, there was eight this month, there’s nine next, you know, it’s it’s not even worth talking about.

Bruce Norris  No impact at all. Plus, it’s a little bit you know, the forbearance is not a real number anyway, so…

Joey Romero  Jeff can I ask a question.

Bruce Norris  Sure.

Joey Romero  You know, California, it could almost be three states, you know. So, my question is, does the market react the same in southwest, Central and north or east? As far as lots and real estate in general does, does it all rack the same or you have pockets that you know, aren’t as accelerated as some?

Jeff Tumbarello  It’s all dependent. There’s really two Florida there’s coastal Florida, non coastal Florida. There’s also two Florida’s in relation, if you take there’s a town called Frostproof, and they name that for a reason. There was a big freeze in the 20s. Everything south of it, they still had orange trees, everything north of it, they didn’t have orange trees. Julia Tuttle sent a fresh orange sprig to Mr. Flagler who then ran the railroad to Miami, and that created Miami when that railroad went down there. So, within all these markets, you have all these different modalities, but again, land always represents hope. So, as long as there’s hope there’s I mean, I would venture to say you can go almost anywhere in the country and work the land market and make money just because there’s so much hope, real estates very euphoric, but when I look at areas that are going to grow I look at for capital influx does the capital I’m not even care if it favors the landlord does the capital does the state laws just allow the landlord to have some rights to their treasure to their asset. That’s huge. There’s so much capital flowing out of particularly California, Oregon, Washington, because people are scared. I mean, if you’re a landlord, it’s you have reasons to be frightful out there. Bruce, you, when we had lunch, you talked about getting fined for not building on lots.

Bruce Norris  Yeah.

Jeff Tumbarello  That, that’s a land grab by any other digital no way that’s not a land grab. And unless they’re willing to subsidize the cost of the building that’s a land grab one thing if they put up some money or even are they waving impact fees or do they want their impact fees, well they’re finding you.

Bruce Norris  No, they just want, they find you, this is in Oakland. So, it’s they find you, because you’re not building whatever they want. And I really thought what, what you just said, I kind of came to that conclusion, because I have some lots that I’m waiting for sewers to come in, and they don’t work. But anyway, I realized that if I was in Oakland, that and I had those lost, they could have them. And then it dawned on me, holy cow, that’s exactly what they want. They want to take your dirt, so they can use it for affordable housing, I was the really scary recognition of what the intent was.

Jeff Tumbarello  Well, if that’s the case, then buy it, you know that, that’s essentially a taking in my opinion, but I always thought none of the either the Realtor Association or the landlord, big landlord groups had the courage to do it. When they did the eviction moratorium In my opinion, that was a national taking. At that point, you just stripped me of some of my property rights. And you, Okay, buy it, especially the comps were pretty good. Okay, buy it, you know, big class action lawsuit that, that was a taking, it really was a taking. But you know, what’s going to drive what areas what markets, I mean, there’s a lot of great growth everywhere. I mean, there really is there’s even parts of the Midwest that are starting to prop up, the economy’s doing fine. Unemployment still really low. We have some, some people sitting on the couch, they’re about to get kicked off the couch. In my opinion, wage growth is up. There’s so many amazing reasons to be bullish on so many areas. But for investment. First thing is what areas any like I say you don’t have favor, the landlord just have to be able to exercise some rights over control of your asset, those areas are going to do well. And Florida’s even changing in the fact that our governor has been a godsend, really has been I know, it’s a cynical political on anything. But our governor has really been a godsend. And then on top of that the state is just trying to foster growth. There’s a lot of companies looking at Florida, Texas and Florida are the primary beneficiaries of the pandemic. If I had to pick two areas, that would be it. I mean, we’re actually contemplating vacation to Austin just because I want to, I hear so many cool things about Austin. I’ve got friends that have properties there that have doubled in just a few years. I kind of just want to go out and see what’s going on out there. Plus, I heard out there’ll be a vegan restaurant right next to a old school South barbecue restaurant. That sounds like a pretty cool place actually.

Bruce Norris  Yes. Austin is kind of like Orange County.

Jeff Tumbarello  Really?

Bruce Norris  Yeah, it’s definitely diverse. My daughter lives there. Yeah, their home price is pretty much doubled in two years. Crazy.

Jeff Tumbarello  We had the market. I mean, eventually the what’s the spreadsheet say? You know, and so many people get caught up. And where’s this trend? Where’s that trend? When you join the Southwest Florida REIA, you get a welcome email. And in that welcome email are two Google Doc links. One is an a pod that was built a long time ago, I collaborated, but it was built by one of the members. And it’s a very simple spreadsheet for cash flow, even has some warnings, even if it gets really really funny at the bottom of it. It says can you afford to own this investment in with the investment in quotations. And then we built one for flipping that actually has all the real costs then because if you’ve ever watched any of those flipping shows, it’s hilarious. How they have no closing costs, commissions debt service utilities.

Bruce Norris  Yeah.

Jeff Tumbarello  The contractor somehow generally come under, which never happens ever unless you are the contractor. Even if you’re the contractor, it’s still under if you do your own work, but we actually and you know, those those two things are, if you’re starting in his game, you know, ‘what are you here to do?’ is the most important question. In any venture. And in investing, it is so important. What are you here to do? I want to make 7% of my money per annum. I want to make 10 is it levered? Is it unlevered? And then more importantly, at what point are you out? So many people buy these properties, and they have no end game. And then you get, right now, it would be easy to get caught up in euphoria. And, and, well if just went up this much. If I just wait three more years, three more years, I’ll retire. And historically that cycles never really ran that long. So, maybe this time it is different. But when it comes to the investing side, it’s easy to get caught up in the trends at that moment. And the irony is everybody’s running off close sales, which is at best 45 days ago. So, you don’t even know what’s happening today. I mean, actually, probably the best thing to watch, in my opinion is a showing time stats. If all sudden the showings fall off a map, there’s something ‘Hey, check that out and showing times becoming a national thing.’ So, I mean, and that’s the beauty this cycle versus the last cycle. The last cycle ran that what I talked about when it ran from like August of ’05 to the end of ’06. Because, you know, Zillow was still in its infancy there just wasn’t as much data out there. And the difference with this cycle is there no more gatekeepers for data. There’s data everywhere. So, if you want to find the data, you can find the data, you can make intelligent decisions without being fed by trade organizations, which have a vested interest in generally keeping a cycle going, because that’s what their members are making money off of.

Bruce Norris  Right. You have any kids that work in the business?

Jeff Tumbarello  You know what’s amazing. We put my oldest son on the phone. And because we just can’t find anybody, it’s hard to get help. And he’s got a little extra capacity. And we put him on the phone part time and he picked up a lot that we are have already moved for 1205 for 5500 I think I was more excited about that lot than salt water a lot that I’m personally doing and I am making a lot of money on but you know, I’m sure you’ve you’ve had this feeling too with Aaron in the business, that we’re watching your son do something that you love is really an amazing moment.

Bruce Norris  Oh, yeah, they’re nothing, nothing beats that. Absolutely.

Jeff Tumbarello  So, yeah, I’ve got one that’s and he seems to have a lot more than he’s actually taller, better built, still has his hair. He’s actually better looking than his father, and has most of his mother’s good trades. So, he’ll do a lot better than I will by far so…

Bruce Norris  Well, Jeff, I really enjoyed getting to know you. And I’ve enjoyed being with your club and I really enjoyed the interview today. So, thank you very much for joining us.

Jeff Tumbarello  Awesome. Enjoyed this.

Bruce Norris  Okay, Jeff. Thanks a lot.

Jeff Tumbarello  Thanks.

Bruce Norris  We’ll see you.

Narrator  For more information on hard money, loans and upcoming events with The Norris Group, check out For information on passive investing with trust deeds, visit

Aaron Norris  The Norris Group originates and services loans in California and Florida under California DRE License 01219911, Florida Mortgage Lender License 1577, and NMLS License 1623669.  For more information on hard money lending, go and click the Hard Money tab.


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