I Survived Real Estate 2021 – Part 1

ISRE-2021-Blog-

 

 

The Norris Group’s annual award-winning event, I Survived Real Estate is back! Due to Covid-19, we are virtual. HOWEVER, our 14th annual black-tie gala that benefits Make-A-Wish and St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital will continue. Since 2008, together we’ve raised over $1,000,000 for charity!

Our network will want to pay special attention to The Norris Group Radio Show and Podcast as we will be doing pre-event shows featuring local experts as well as national leaders. There’s a lot at stake in 2021 for real estate investors. Will the real estate market remain scalding hot? Is a crash coming? How will the US handle the disappearance of Covid housing- and employment-related assistance?

I Survived Real Estate was created during a year in crisis and our mission continues to bring thought leaders together for a great cause while preparing our industry for the year ahead.

 

 

PLATINUM PARTNERS:

San Diego Creative Investors Association
Wilson Investment Properties,
uDirect IRA Services

Gold Sponsors:
Inland Empire Board of Real Estate
Keller Williams Corona,
Keystone CPA Inc.
Las Brisas Escrow
Leivas Tax Wealth Management
NorCal REIA
NSDREI
Pasadena FIBI
Realty 411c
ThinkRealty Magazine

 

 

Episode Notes:

 

 

Narrator  This is the Norris group’s real estate investor radio show the award winning show dedicated to thought leaders shaping the real estate industry and local experts revealing their insider tips to succeed in an ever changing real estate market hosted by author, investor and hard money lender, Bruce notice. On November 5 2021, the Norris group proudly presented at our 14th annual I survived real estate charity event, industry experts joined Bruce and Aaron Norris to discuss evolving industry trends, real estate bubbles, inflation and opportunities emerging for real estate professionals. All proceeds from the event benefit make a wish and St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital. We want to thank our Platinum partners San Diego Creative Investors Association, Wilson Investment Properties, uDirect IRA Services visit Isurvivedrealestate.com for speaker bios the uninterrupted video more on our awesome sponsors and links to give 100% is tax deductible.

Aaron Norris  Good evening, everybody and welcome to the 14th annual I survived real estate. My name is Aaron Norris, and I’d like to welcome you this evening and thank you for being here. COVID may have forced us to miss another year at the Nixon library. Don’t worry, we plan to be back next year. But the show is just way too important to miss. So we had to do it. All the money we raised today via sponsorship ticket sales and donation goes to make a wish and St Jude, which are two amazing charities that support children facing life threatening illnesses. Last year we crossed a huge milestone of $1 million raised for the events began in 2008. And this year is a little bit different as we will be doing more promotion after the event in hopes of those enjoying will continue to donate we’ve crossed the 40,000 mark thus far. If you are watching now on the show and been invited from a sponsor and you want to give you can go to I survived real estate calm and the Video tab and you can click the link you’ll find all the links to donate there. I’d like to thank our leading sponsors right now. SDCI a you direct Ira services and Wilson investment properties Inc. Thanks for stepping up. So last minute, I was a little bit behind because of everything going on health wise but it came together we made it all happen. If you are later enjoying on Amazon Prime YouTube or other platforms after the event, please visit isi realestate.com. And again, check out our videos, check out the extended bios of all of our speakers and look for that donate button so you can help us out and of course it’s all a tax deduction. So let’s jump into the action. Welcome to the screen the host for this evening investor builder hard money lender. With almost 40 years of experience. I get the column pops. Bruce Norris.

Bruce Norris  Take 40 years. That doesn’t sound good. Guys, thank you for the support that you’ve given there and it’s been awesome. And partly why he’s gained weight is he he provides muffins every time he every time he shows up to the hospital and my wife sent pizza. So that’s where some of the calories come from. Tonight we’re going to have five contributors. Aaron is going to be interviewing Cornelius Burke and Casey Ricker. In the first segment I’m going to be speaking with Jim Park, Sean O’Toole and Doug Duncan, and I’m going to introduce them each first and then we’ll join join in. Jim Park is the Executive Chairman CEO and founder of the mortgage collaborative where he provides day to day oversight of TMCs business initiatives and works closely with TMC board of directors with nearly 30 years in the housing and mortgage banking field. Park has held various positions in the corporate sector started several businesses worked in federal and local governments and helped to launch a number of prominent nonprofit organizations. Mark has served on various corporate government and nonprofit boards including carrying the last Federal Reserve’s Consumer Advisory Board, along with past Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke key. Sean O’Toole is CEO and founder property radar. The property data and owner information platform real estate pros have trusted since 2007, to drive billions and deals, Sean purchased and flipped over 150 residential and commercial properties using rudimentary tools at the time before selling everything sensing a market shift in 2005. He then built his dream application foreclosure radar, which changed the game for 1000s of small, independent investors, agents and other pros and that empowered them to compete and succeed in a market that was otherwise devastated. In 2013. Sean launched relaunched foreclosure radar as property radar as foreclosures cooled off, and as the industry saw demand for usable public records with enhanced owner information, property rights went national in 2020. And last but certainly not least, Doug Duncan been a friend of the Norris group for a long time. Douglas is Fannie Mae, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. He’s responsible for providing all forecasts and analysis on the economy, housing, and mortgage markets for Fannie Mae. He also oversees corporate strategy and is responsible for strategic research regarding external factors and their potential impact on the company and the housing industry. Name one of Bloomberg Business week’s 50 most powerful people in real estate, Duncan is Fannie Mae source for information analysis of the external business and economic environment, the implications of changes in the economic environment to the company’s strategy and execution, and forecasting for housing activities, demographics, overall economic activity and mortgage market activity. Ah, you know, in 2021, this is just so easy to predict what’s next, isn’t it? It’s been one of the craziest 18 months I’ve ever seen. And I’m excited to get some of these people with a lot of information behind them and experience what their take is. Jim, I’m going to start with you. You’ve got a couple of events that housing renaissance and also 12 days of TNC. Can you give me a little bit of what that is for and who it’s for?

Jim Park  Sure. First, thanks for having me back on I do miss the Nixon library, seeing every all of you. And Aaron. No, we’re proud of the progress you’re making. And we’re with you. So thank you for still kind of keeping us together, like this. The housing Renaissance, it’s actually similar to what you did with this program, you know, in the height of the foreclosure crisis, when the market was sort of melting down. A handful of folks, just a couple of friends of mine, Gary Costa, Phil bracken. And I thought about bringing together some people from the, from the industry together, but not just real estate or mortgage. But people from the consumer group, people from the building community, people who are regulators, who are academics, thought leaders, Doug Duncan has been a regular on that program as well, without, actually it’s a half that half the people in that room seem to be PhDs from different universities. And, and so we try to bring people together to kind of think about where the housing market is going similar to what you do. And to just create a kind of a unique environment where people who typically don’t talk to each other. And I think sometimes, that’s a challenge that we face in this industry is we were sort of sort of Mano line in terms of the way we think about it. Builders think about the building community, realtors, think about the realtor community, and so on and so forth. And what we try to do is to bring people from multiple discipline, new tech providers, to people who are advocates on the ground, bring them all together to talk about what issues really are impacting consumers throughout the country. And we try to come up with some solutions. But most importantly, it’s about relationships and kind of making sure people have connections that going that are going to help them improve the housing market. So that’s been around for 14 years similar to you this program. And we’ll be having it later next month, actually, this year, in terms of the 12 days, 12 days is a part of a program of my day job. By the way, Bruce, thank you for that very kind intro, I might have to borrow that and make sure everyone else uses it. So but that that is part of the the mortgage collaborative mortgage collaborative is a is a national network. It’s a co op of independent mortgage banks, community banks and credit unions. We have about I think, right now we’re gonna keep adding the numbers, but we I think we’re at about 253 members right now nationwide, representing the aggregate origination volume kind of goes back and forth between 10 to 15%, of the US origination volume. So our members originate a quite a large chunk of the business. So we try to provide education, networking, as well as other ways to support their business growth. We just recently launched. I will answer 12, the 12 days as a program, it’s a 12 days long program. I think it’s too long, but my staff says it’s, you know, perfect, yes. Perfect. So, so we’re going with the 12 days. But we recently launched this one thing that I’m very excited about is we recently launched this year a venture capital fund within the collaborative and because the mortgage folks, all of us are our users, a lot of mortgage technology, created by a lot of smart people in Silicon Valley. and elsewhere. And a lot of them don’t have any mortgage experience, right? They kind of it’s, it’s, it sounded good on paper, they’re trying to figure it out as you go along. But a lot of times, it’s sort of the tail wagging the dog scenario. And so we said, You know what, we as an organization, we as members, mortgage lenders are going to be venture capitalists, and we’re gonna bet on certain technology and put money in it, we actually help them pilot it, and we help them scale it. So it’s been a fun, fun year for us. And it’s been a great year, obviously, for the mortgage lender community. This year, obviously, not as good as last year, but still a solid year.

Bruce Norris  Okay, let’s go forward. Because what’s interesting about charts that I pay attention to, I kind of got into the real estate fray prior to 1980. But since 1980, interest rates have gone down for 40 years. And so that’s helped the mortgage industry out, there’s always been a refi. So what going forward? Well, first of all, what percentage of refi? Is makeup? The of the current loan business? What do you say? What percentage?

Jim Park  Revise? What was about 60? I think Doug would know the exact numbers.

Bruce Norris  It’s almost Yeah.

Jim Park  Yeah, it’s actually in our organization with our members, it’s actually slightly flipped. So we have more purchase money than reifies. In my network. It’s kind of it’s kind of sort of a strange scenario. But but it’s I think, yeah, I think you know, refi numbers, who knows how many, how much more we can be five folks out there, probably we’re running out of people. purchase money, I think is where the action is, I think even particularly in a rate environment, that’s probably going to move up. I suspect we’ve been we’ve been saying that for I don’t know how many years now. So I don’t think it comes out of my mouth. But then I go, I don’t believe myself when I talk about it. So

Bruce Norris  Are there discussions about okay, when, when the refi business isn’t the dominant player? What What products do we have that might take their place?

Jim Park  Well, it’s a purchase money business, you know, and that’s kind of what people are really focused on. That’s why a lot of our members, if you look at the members overall, they are focused on new channels of bringing in business. So if they were a distributed retail business, primarily, they’re looking at Consumer Direct, or they’re looking at potential, even wholesale business ways. business back in to the organization. One thing that’s happened, you know, obviously, last year was, you know, people pay tons of money to bring in staff, operational staff, I’m obviously layered on top of that technology. So the capacity of many of our members quite strong, right, they can handle a decent amount of volume, as the market as the volume, overall service trended down, you have to do something with the organization that does involve layoff. I do think people have relied on more technology now so that you don’t have that volatility in layoffs. But But still, it is. It is. There’s probably some excess capacity out there for folks. Community banks, our members, if you look at our members, 60% of our members are independent IMDs independent banks. 20 40% are either credit unions or community banks. They’re not, they’re not able to move us quite as fast in terms of layoff and all that stuff like an IMD, right, the Ivy’s can hire fast, they can lay off fast. So half of our group is doing that other half is not. But in terms of products, I think, you know, people are just you know, focused on sort of more channels and trying to get more business in.

Bruce Norris  Okay. Sean, welcome. How are you doing? Are you Are you kidding me? Your sound is off. I thought you’re,

Aaron Norris  You’re on mute. That was really funny.

Jim Park  We’ve all heard out a few times.

Bruce Norris  Yeah. Sean is worse than I thought.

Sean O’Toole Recovering from strep throat, so my voice is gonna crack a little.

Bruce Norris  Okay, well, we’ll try to make this as easy as possible. Since the conversion from foreclosure radar to property radar, can you briefly go over what resources are available at your website? And how your scope of concern customers have X has expanded?

Sean O’Toole  Yeah, um, so I mean, we’re primarily public records, data aggregator and provider. But we’d like to say we make public records usable, unlike what you get from your title company or from your MLS. So rather than just being data, we’re taking that data and making it easy to search, look things up, see it in context, explore, etc. We also enhance it with demographics, data, phone, email, and the rest. So For most of the folks that are in this audience, you know, they’re using it to source listings, to source mortgage prospects to source deals for investors, and using it to build a list of Prospect customers, or using it for due diligence on those deals.

Bruce Norris  I’m just curious, kind of late in the game, as far as the cycle and prices going up, are you still seeing a lot of new entries into the investor world?

Sean O’Toole  Yeah, um, you know, I think, I think generally, you know, the big thing, you know, that’s happened kind of through the pandemic is a lot of people don’t want to go to a jail B anymore. And they want to do their own thing. And they want to go pursue that dream and, you know, maybe the stimulus money or, or how well their stocks have done, or, you know, some of those things have given folks the courage to go out maybe where they haven’t before. Although, you know, certainly there are folks that have an outlook of this is a terrible time they think prices are going to go down or whatever. So you get a mix of those two things. But yeah, we certainly seen plenty of new entrants in the investor space.

Bruce Norris  In 2005, the hair on your neck went up. And you said, I think I’m going to get out of here. How’s, how’s the hair on your neck doing these days?

Sean O’Toole  Well, I think we’re just starting to see kind of the same thing we saw in 2005, from the standpoint of prices have reached a point where it’s starting to slow sales. And you know, what you heard from everybody at 2005? Was it’s not a bubble. You know, it’s just a lack of inventory. Right. And we’re hearing a lot about lack of inventory right now. That said, I do think that there are things that are fundamentally different between now and 2005, specifically, the likely regulatory response, we’re not going to see a lot of foreclosures, that’s really at the end of the day, you know, forcing banks to offload assets at any price. At the same time, you remove credit from the market was just a really bad plan. And I don’t think we’ll, we’ll do that again.

Bruce Norris  Do you see established investors already, let’s say 1031, exchanging to what they consider safer havens?

Sean O’Toole  You know, you see some of that, and a lot of times that, you know, usually when I see that that’s more because of a hate to go here. But it’s more of a political bent, right, like, California Sox, I’m going to get out of here, doesn’t matter that California is outperformed all those other states most years, you know, it doesn’t matter what the facts on the ground are. But, you know, unfortunately, we’re starting to see, we’re starting to see a lot of things that are based in that, you know, in that kind of thing, as well. So, we definitely see some, you know, there are people that have very strong opinions that it’s time to be out of California, or time to be someplace else or time to be out of this asset class into that asset class. And we support all that, if that’s what you want to do, we’re happy to give you the data to help you make that move.

Bruce Norris  You feel you’ll feel confident in California’s you know, future in the next couple year

Sean O’Toole  There’s there’s a number of things I don’t like about California, but they are well overwhelmed by the things I do like about California being in California and born and raised. So. And I expect to Texan born and raised to say the same thing.

Bruce Norris  Okay, do you have a particular chart that you like to look at and say, Okay, that’s, that’s concerning me?

Sean O’Toole  Um, so, what’s the? Um, no, because I don’t think we are in a free market economy, or in a free market housing environment. So, you know, whereas in the past, you could look at charts and say, here’s what’s going to happen. There’s so much more going on that is, you know, policy and, you know, actions on the ground and other things that I think, I think right now, it’s unprecedented enough times, that it’s, it’s really hard to draw conclusions about the future. But the only clear conclusion that I have, right, is we’ve seen after 2001, we saw a particular monetary, fiscal regulatory response. So the same thing after 2005, we saw the same thing, but each time larger right after the pandemic. So I think that’s the thing we can count on. Right? I think we can count on increasingly outsized responses to crisis and that doesn’t mean You shouldn’t worry about crisis. But you know, and that, you know, I think the the system as a whole is bad at fairly distributing, you know, its response and does a very poor job. And we can point to a lot of that in this last crisis where we overly hurt certain things like certain small businesses and overly helped others. And I expect that will continue. So you need to think about, you know, whether you’re in the group of likely to be helped or likely to be hurt in these responses. But I mean, for now, most of my adult life, you know, the economy has been driven far more by, quote unquote, black swan events than it has been by much else.

Bruce Norris  About four years ago, I sent you an email. Okay, about for about four years, I sent you an email, say, I’m going to put, I think we’re gonna have 2% mortgage rates on a on a cover of a report. You think I’m crazy? And you responded back? He said, No, I think you’re right. So I had to, I have to ask, do you think we’re going to see pretty sizable hikes and interest rates? So do you think that’s not true?

Sean O’Toole  I think it’s more likely we will have another crisis and see 1% mortgage rates than it is that we’ll see 6% mortgage rates.

Bruce Norris  Interesting. And that’s recorded. You know, what, by the way, everybody hear that takes the has the guts to put something in writing. I respect so much, because you’re stuck with it forever. So, you know, that’s a big deal. It is. It’s a big deal because I’ve certainly been on the wrong side of that on occasion. So, but I respect people that write things down.

Joey Romero  Alright, everybody that’s gonna do it for part one of ici real estate 2021.

Narrator  We’d also like to thank our gold sponsors, Inland Empire Board of Real Estate, Keller Williams Corona, Keystone CPA, Inc. Los Brisas Escrow, Leivas Tax Wealth Management, NorCal REIA, NSD Rei Pasadena FIBI, Realty 411 and ThinkRealty Magazine. See, Isurvivedrealestate.com for Event Details information on all our generous sponsors, watch the video uninterrupted and to connect with our speakers. For more information on hard money, loans and upcoming events with the Norris group, check out the Norris group.com. For more informa tion on passive investing with trust deeds, visit tngtrustdeeds.com

Aaron Norris  The Norris group originates and services loans in California and Florida under California D R E license 01219911. Florida mortgage lender license 1577 and NMLS license 1623669. For more information on hard money, lending go to the Norris group.com and click the hard money tab.

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