MORE ROUGH TIMES ARE AHEAD FOR THE U.S. ECONOMY, DESPITE RECENT IMPROVEMENTS IN DURABLE GOODS ORDERS, EXPORTS, AUTO AND REAL ESTATE SALES
The federal government plans to “tinker” with mortgage interest reporting. The $30 billion ticking time bomb of ARMs. First American estimates that California has approximately $30 billion dollars worth of bad home loans. A review of over 24 million credit files showed that people with good credit scores were more likely to ‘strategically default’. The building industry shows improvement, as Lennar Corp. expects a profitable year, despite a bad 3rd quarter.
Laurence Fink, of BlackRock Inc., warns that government programs to help homeowners may slow the recovery in the mortgage market. The FHA announced that its reserves will fall below congressional requirements. MDA DataQuick reports that fifteen percent of the homes sold in August were bought by investors. Statistics from Trulia show that price cuts in Irvine are more likely to occur in the luxurious areas rather than the popular areas.
The U.S. Commerce Department reports that total housing production increased by 1.5 percent, but single unit home production decreased by 3 percent. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, mortgage bankers made an average of $1,088 in profit on each loan originated in the first quarter of 2009. Statistics from MDA DataQuick show that the number of homes and condos that closed escrow last month decreased by 14.3 percent from the month before. A report from the Federal Reserve’s Flow of Funds shows that household wealth increased by $2 trillion in the second quarter.
The National Association of Home Builders reports that builder confidence increased for the third consecutive month. The Mortgage Banker’s Association’s weekly survey shows that the volume of mortgage applications decreased by 8.6 percent from the previous week. John Isakson is pushing an extension of the $8,000 tax credit through the senate. Doug Duncan, of Fannie Mae, warns that if the Federal Reserve stops purchasing agency mortgage-backed securities then mortgage rates could jump by 30 basis points. The UCLA forecast predicts the nation will emerge from the recession this quarter although California will most likely lag in the recovery. The federal reserve is now looking into the vulnerability of small banks with commercial exposure as losses mount.
A survey from the National Association of Home Builders shows that buyers are unwilling to pay more for a new “green” home. DQNews reports that the total sales in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange Counties fell 10.8 percent from the previous month. Both Ben Bernanke and Bank of America believe the U.S. financial downturn is coming to an end. The Coopers Korpacz Real Estate Investor Survey estimates that U.S. commercial property will not recover until 2012. If you watched I Survived Real Estate 2009, it’s interesting to hear what industry experts are saying compared to some of these economists. Also, NAR reports in a recent survey less foreign real estate purchases measured year over year.
The Sacramento Bee reports that the New Home-Buyer Tax Credit extension failed to pass. According to John Burns analysis, investors represent approximately 26 percent of all the sales occurring within the 53 markets that he observes. JPMorgan Chase & Co. chief economist Bruce Kasman believes that the economy will grow by 3.5 percent per quarter during the next year, but wont be enough to bring the GDP back to its $13.42 trillion pre- crisis peak. Realtors will be excited to hear that Docusign just got an iPhone app.
Freddie Mac estimates that sales of new and existing homes will increase by 11 percent from the second quarter. Attorney General Jerry Brown reports that an Orange County loan officer has been arrested for $30 million dollars worth of fraudulent loans. A report from Altera Real Estate shows that million dollar homes in Dana Point, Laguna Beach and San Clemente are losing value. Fraud arrests continue with detention of loan officer. Tonight is also our I Survived Real Estate 2009 event being aired online live from The Business Press. We are very excited to have the panel of experts join us.
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s reports that mortgage applications increased by 17 percent from last week, and delinquency rates rose by 2.04 percent. Michael Williams of Fannie Mae believes that the U.S. housing market is still far from recovery. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. is beginning to invest in distressed U.S. properties. The Wall Street Journal reports that China’s $300 billion dollar investment fund is interested in buying distressed properties in the U.S.
Todays News Synopsis: A recent report shows that 2 out of 5 working-age Californians are unemployed. The Treasury expects to spend over $45 billion dollars in bail out money for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac by September 30th. U.S. regulations are making it considerably more difficult to obtain home loans. Aliso Viejo has been named …