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By Bruce Norris .

204-TNG Radio – Tom Anderson 12-11-10

Friday, December 10th, 2010

Tom Anderson


Tom Anderson

Chairman and Founder of PENSCO Trust Company


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This week Bruce is joined again by Tom Anderson. Tom is the chairman and founder of PENSCO Trust Company. He is considered by many to be the national expert on the topic of self directed IRAs. He focuses on how investors can increase their wealth-building potential with real estate and private equity investments. He has written articles for nearly all the nation’s and financial magazines. He was recently invited to Washington as part of the “Future of Finance Initiative” for the Obama Administration.

You can loan money to your IRA if you attempting to protect the existence of the IRA. You cannot loan money to your IRA to buy new lots. The loan must also be interest free. If it did have an interest rate, the loan would be considered self dealing, because you would be taking profit out of your IRA. Lastly, if the loan extends more than 60 days, you must provide the custodian with a note explaining that the IRA owes you money.

Tom recently spoke to a member of the Department of Labor who created this exemption, and the member confirmed that you could loan money to your IRA to bail it out of mortgage delinquency.

There are some IRA investments which may or may not be considered illegal depending on which government official is reviewing the investment. For example, Tom once heard of a man who used his IRA to buy a classic car. Because the car is a classic, there is good reason to believe the car will appreciate. However, a government official might consider this self dealing, because they may or may not perceive the classic car to be for personal use. If the government perceives the car to be for personal use, then the car purchase would be labeled self dealing. Depending on which day the car purchase was reviewed, and depending on who reviewed the purchase, this may or may not be a legal IRA purchase. You can perform a large variety of transactions within your IRA, but you must be careful not to purchase anything that the government might perceive as self dealing. If the government believes you are self dealing with your IRA, then your IRA will lose its tax-deferred status.

Bruce’s business is set up to buy and sell real estate. Bruce asks Tom if there is a limit on how much money, or how many houses, he could use for his IRA. Tom believes that this is up for interpretation. In Bruce’s case, he owns a real estate business, so if he performs many transactions through his IRA, the government may possibly perceive Bruce to be running a business through his IRA. All businesses must pay taxes, and if the government determined that Bruce was running his business through his IRA, then he might lose the tax-deferred status of his IRA. Tom believes that if Bruce was both working in his IRA for retirement investments, and out of it for business use, then it would be hard for the government to label Bruce’s IRA as a business. However, if Bruce was retired, and he only purchased and sold properties through his IRA, then the government may perceive Bruce to be running a business through his IRA. You should consult with your CPA to determine whether or not you will be subject to taxes.

A disqualified person is a term in the Internal Revenue Code 4975 which defines certain entities as people you cannot perform transactions with. The government does not want you to touch your IRA assets, because they want your assets to be there when you retire. So you cannot buy a condo in a vacation spot with your IRA, and then use that condo on the weekends. Disqualified persons include yourself, your spouse, your children, and the spouses of your children. Most people in your family are considered disqualified persons, except for siblings, nephews and uncles. If you deal with a sibling or nephew, you should not offer them less than market rates. Giving a member of your family the benefit of low payments through an IRA asset could be considered self dealing.

Bruce heard an unusual example of someone who was taxed for self dealing. An investor owned a commercial building, and his IRA owned the let next to it. The investor would park in the lot next door, and that was considered illegal personal use. You are not allowed to gain a personal benefit from your IRA while the IRA is growing. If a mistake like this occurs, you have 14 days to correct it. However, if the custodian was the cause of the mistake, then you can argue in court that the custodian should be held responsible.

Tom’s company will not accept any member that is not a part of a regulated institution. If he did not check to determine whether or not his members were being regulated, many bad people would have the opportunity to deal through them. A non-regulated company may enter into an agreement with a bank who is a custodian. All banks, credit unions and trust companies are automatically qualified to hold IRAs. If you are not one of those institutions, then you must be authorized by the IRS. There are 257 mutual fund companies, insurance companies, and broker dealers that are licensed by the IRS.

It is good business to protect the consumer, and the government supports that mentality. PENSCO will not help someone enter into a prohibited transaction. If a lender was involved in a prohibited transaction on an IRA, then they would be subject to a 15% tax on the amount of the transaction. So a lender that made a $100,000 bill would receive a $15,000 bill. If the lender was not aware of the prohibited transaction, then they may be exempt from the tax.

When an investor is told that he cannot buy a property from himself with his IRA, he may get the idea of having a friend buy his property, and then re-buying from his friend. However, this is still considered an illegal transaction. This is considered a linked transaction by the IRS. You will not go to jail for performing a transaction like this unless you fail to pay the penalty taxes. However, the IRS tends to not inform you of your mistakes until 3 years later, so you can get caught off guard if you are not careful.

If you buy a property through your IRA while using your brother as a lender, you will not be taxed so long as your brother does not receive more than his regular fee.

A Prohibited Transaction Exemption (PTE) is a request submitted to the Department of Labor when you anticipate that your potential transaction may be prohibited. A PTE is usually granted on the basis that there is no increase or decrease in value because of the transaction. You cannot submit a PTE after the transaction takes place. The exemption comes in writing, so the Good Day rule does not apply.

There are some custodians who offer check book IRAs. Tom believes this practice will probably be extinct soon. There are only two custodians Tom knows of that will do check book IRAs, and PENSCO is one of them.

Tom’s website is www.penscotrust.com

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

169-TNG Radio – Harry Dent 4-10-10

Friday, April 9th, 2010

Harry-Dent

Harry Dent

Author and Economist

(Full Bio)

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This week Bruce Norris is joined once again by Harry Dent. Harry is the president of the H.S. Dent Foundation, which publishes the H.S. Dent forecast. His mission is to help people understand change. He is the author of many books, which include The Great Boom Ahead 1992 and The Roaring 2000s and The Great Depression Ahead.

The title The Great Depression Ahead is gutsy. This book came out in 2009. Harry finished writing the book in the first half of 2008. However, we had some significant events occur at the end of 2008. The only thing that really surprised Harry was the stock market rally. He assumed that the economy would get worse, and as it got worse, the government would stimulate it. Harry predicted the stock market would bounce to 9800 and maybe even 11,800. We are right in the middle of that zone right now. Short term indicators predict that we might go even higher in the near future. However, he thought this stock bounce would begin and end earlier. Harry does not believe the recovery will last, because the baby boomers will go from spending to saving.

Harry defines a depression as an extended downturn in which you also see a deflation in prices. The reason why prices go down is because banks and loans are failing. This destroys credit and money. The deleveraging of credit causes deflation. In a depression, everything goes down. In an inflationary downturn like the 1970s, real estate goes up. Real estate does well during inflation. The failure of the banking system is the biggest shock an economic system can have. Harry believes that later this year and in 2011 we will go into a depression.

Alan Greenspan once said, “I watched my whole intellectual education fall apart in 2008”. That took a lot of guts to say, and it was astonishing to think that someone like Greenspan had studied economics for 50 years but still estimated incorrectly. Economists can look at a chart and come to two completely different conclusions.

Anyone who has studied business cycles throughout history knows that human greed takes over every time. Anytime you have low regulation, low interest rates, and bubbles building, people go nuts. People start thinking that the market will never go down, and the banks will lend to anyone. If bubbles go on for long enough, anyone will buy into a bubble. Its not a matter of intelligence, it’s a matter of understanding human nature, and that is where economists fall short. All economists look at is statistics.

There are no exceptions to the cycle of economics. The economy always goes from summer to fall, from inflation to disinflation. In the fall season is when you get bubbles, and when you get bubbles, the government always claims it can fix the problem, but they cannot and they have proven this over and over again. Bubbles have to deflate. We don’t want real estate to be so expensive that young people cannot afford it.

The bigger the boom the bigger the bust. Fortunately, we have a tool that tells you how long a boom will last approximately, and when it will wind down. Harry predicted how the economy would change by looking at the birth index. Booms always lead to excesses, and excessive lending and business expansion.

Japan had a real estate bubble similar to ours. They had excessive lending and unaffordable real estate prices. They had a demographic boom peak before the rest of the world, because they were the only major country who did not have a baby boom after WWII. Japan went through their downturn while the rest of the world was in the greatest boom of history. They didn’t have as much deflation as we will have, and their export industries can still be working at 120 percent. Japan also entered their crisis as a net creditor to the world. Almost all their debt was financed by their own citizens, so they had more capacity to stimulate and keep stimulating.

The U.S. is entering this downturn, and the whole country is going down with it. Baby boom demographics are down around the world. The world has also had a banking crisis and real estate bubble. We’re dragging people down with us, but they would have gone down anyways. The U.S. is the biggest net debtor in the world. We owe trillions of dollars to other countries. 50 percent of our debt is financed by foreign investors. This is contributing to the world downturn.

In 2011, Harry believes debt will overwhelm the banking system. This will cause the deficit to reach about $22 trillion. Harry thinks the debt will encourage our government to borrow even more, and we will pay for it. Japan tried to do this, and they will be sorry for it. Their debt to GDP ratio is 2.5 times what ours is. The only reason why they are surviving is because they are still paying interest rates on that debt at less than 2 percent. In the next decade, they will have to pay market rates like the rest of the world. Japan never truly deflated their bubble. They deflated their businesses, but they didn’t deflate their financial institutions. They have no way to easily get themselves out of this trouble.

Harry believes that Europe is going to start having debt trouble as well. When this happens, France and Germany will have to pick up the tab, but they won’t want to have any part in that. They will demand that the other countries cut their spending and raise taxes to cover their own debt.

In the United States, healthcare and social security expenses are already at costs above what we can afford, and we are now looking to expand that. Company and government pensions are unrealistically generous. Once we get to the point where we have to cut those pensions, people are going to go nuts. There may be riots. Bruce agrees with Harry on this issue. $46 trillion in unfunded medicare, Medicaid, and social security liabilities have already been promised to people. That is 4 times as much as the current government debt. We can’t afford the healthcare we have, and now they are trying to pass another healthcare bill.

The government will have to confess its inability to pay the baby boom generation its social benefits around 2012 or 2013 when the crisis will be at its worst. We will not get out of the mortgage and housing crisis until 2012. Harry believes that Obama will not be reelected, because he became president at a bad time.

We are going to have an enormous amount of debt in the next couple years, which is part of the reason why Harry does not support the new health reform bill. We will not be able to sustain the cost of this new program, and Bruce doubts that Congress has fully read through this health care bill.

When you have deflation, it exaggerates the current debt level. Harry believes that this will cause the government to scale back on age limits for social security and health care. Private debt will scale down substantially. All the debt ratios will get worse. Many businesses will go under or merge with other businesses. Banks will have to write off trillions in loans. Deflation works to restructure debt, rather than pay it off. If we had to pay all that debt off with deflated dollars, it would be much more difficult. At the end of this deflation period, we will be much stronger. Stronger companies will take over weak companies, costs get cut, and real estate goes down.

There are very few properties for sale in California right now, and it is easy to resale. The default rate has doubled in the last 12 months, but the foreclosure numbers have been cut in half. Banks are not foreclosing on people, because they do not know what to do with so many properties. Despite the 6 percent GDP, which Harry does not believe will last, defaults will continue to increase and foreclosures will continue to hit the market. This will suppress real estate prices. Banks will eventually have to write off a lot of those loans and foreclose. This is what will kill the recovery. Once the banks realize that real estate won’t recover, we will see the next banking crisis.

There is a psychology attached to exaggerated events like booms. When booms occur, people rationalize their decisions and the same thing happens in a down cycle. When things go down, people develop a pessimistic attitude towards the future. Baby boomers have not yet had a major downturn in both the real estate and stock market at the same time. This crash is going to cause retirements to disappear for baby boomers, and this loss will cause them to save even more. They will have to work longer but they may not be able to get jobs, because older people cost more in benefits. Harry is forecasting 15 percent unemployment.

Harry believes interest rates will increase this year. However, the bond market will eventually notice that the economy is slowing and then interest rates will decrease. This is what happened in 1931 when the crisis was building. We had a great boom market in bonds from 1932 to 1940 when interest rates were falling. In the next decade we will see deflation. If you want to buy long term bonds, Harry encourages people to wait until later this year or early next year. If you want to refinance, you may want to wait until interest rates come back down. This downturn in interest rates will happen between 2011 and 2013.

Bruce never thought he would see interest rates go down this low. Bruce began his real estate career in 1981 when he refinanced his house at 17.5 percent. Now we are at sub five percent rates, and we may see rates go even lower. Harry agrees and claims we may see rates go down to 3 to 4 percent.

168-TNG Radio – Harry Dent 4-3-10

Thursday, April 1st, 2010

 

Harry-Dent

Harry Dent

Author and Economist

(Full Bio)

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This week Bruce Norris is joined by Harry Dent. Harry is the president of the H.S. Dent Foundation, which publishes the H.S. Dent forecast. His mission is to help people understand change. He is the author of many books, which include The Great Boom Ahead 1992 and The Roaring 2000s and The Great Depression Ahead.

Before he wrote his books, Harry was working towards a degree in Economics, but then changed to Finance and Accounting. He felt that economics did not teach much, and that most economists were not able to predict anything. He eventually went to Harvard Business School and studied business strategy and marketing. This is probably why he comes to different conclusions than many economists.

Harry has been studying demographics in his consulting work. In 1998, he was sitting in front of the S&P 500 and the Birth Index for Baby Boomers. He looked at those 2 charts and he noticed that they looked a lot alike. Harry knew that the peak in spending was between 45 and 49 for the average economy, and this knowledge led him to conclude that he could predict the economy 50 years in advance with just one indicator. A boom typically starts when a generation is young, and ends when they begin hitting their 40s. Not too long after, he discovered that there were many correlations between different economic factors.

Harry’s business of predictions has been an ongoing learning process. He has extended his studies to real estate and different pieces of the economy. Recently, he had to revise his book The Great Depression, because he got new information about merging markets between countries like Europe and Australia. Emerging countries do not have the same kind of spending habits as that of developed countries. This is why he makes different predictive calculations for merging countries.

Attempting to accurately predict the future can be exhausting, because every time you think you’ve accounted for all the factors, you discover there is something missing. Harry has to account for political cycles, commodity cycles, urbanization and other factors which affect the merging of countries. Bruce feels that Harry’s non-arrogant mentality lends credibility to Harry’s work. The fact that Harry is open to new information, and to the idea of revising his own theories, is why Bruce pays attention to him.

Harry’s first book was named The Power to Predict. This book is about indicators like “the spending wave”, “the 46 year lag,” and “the inflation indicator.” This book also contained the “S-curve,” which describes the 4-stage business and economic cycle. Harry predicted that DOW would hit 10,000 by the early 2000s, and that the boom would end by about 2007. This book accounted for new technologies like the internet and new car models. When new technologies develop, they cause bubbles.

Japan was mentioned in this first book as well. Harry claimed that Japan was going to slow, and that the United States and Europe would improve. People thought he was crazy for making that claim, because at that time, Japan was booming with growth. In 1992, people thought the U.S. had seen its best days, but Harry claimed that there would be a boom around the year of 1998 to 2000, which would result in a government surplus. Harry also predicted at that time that inflation and interest rates would decrease around that time.

Bruce feels that the legitimacy of Harry’s predictions is confirmed by his ability to predict both bad times and good times. Also, Harry uses very specific terms when describing the future of economics. Harry doesn’t use moderate language in his predictions. He has noticed that economies tend to either be bullish or bearish. The good times don’t last forever, and he thinks that people who make predictions about never-ending prosperity are foolish. When markets go up, they tend to increase for 25 to 27 years. When markets go down, the downturn typically lasts 12 to 14 years. Harry currently believes that we will have a period of demographic weakness from 2008 to 2023.

Every 40 years we get a major downturn and the government tries to fix it, but they cannot do this because they cannot fight demographics. When you’re in a demographic boom, the government can stimulate because you have a generation that needs to spend and borrow a larger amount of money. Harry is claiming that the current government stimulus program will fail, because it is simply causing the younger generation to buy earlier when they would have bought a home in the future. Also, Harry does not believe the baby boom generation will be affected by the stimulus, because they are done with the home buying part of their lives.

Most people only study one theme of economics. This means that if they are bullish, then they will selectively read bullish material. These people have already come to a conclusion before studying the evidence.

In the early 70s, Bruce read a book from Howard Ruff named The Coming Bad Year. At that time, Bruce did not have much knowledge of economics, so he read this book as if it came from God. One of the suggestions that Howard made in this book was to buy 200 pounds of wheat. At that time, Bruce had two kids and he didn’t want to run out, so he bought 1000 pounds. This experience taught Bruce that you cannot believe everything you read from proclaimed experts.

Economists don’t have tools to project 50 years in advance, but Harry believes that demographics can do this. Harry predicts that the value of gold will decrease in value during the downturn, because this is a deflation season not an inflation season. This is contrary to the opinions of many people, but Bruce actually tends to lean in favor of Harry’s opinion on this matter.

The more popular you are as an economic writer, the more people respect your opinions, and the more likely they are to plan their lives according to your predictions. This is something that Harry thinks about frequently. Harry actually encourages people to read other authors who think contrary to his opinions, so they can have a fully educated opinion.

A long-term boom prediction is bound to have some down cycles mixed in. Bruce asks how one can know the difference between an anomaly downturn and a downturn which leads to a depression. If demographic trends are still up when downturns occur, then the market will eventually recover. Baby boomers are moving into their 50s and 60s. During this time, they will be saving more and spending less. This tells Harry that the government stimulus will not work.

It is easier to predict long trends than it is to predict precise downturn points. For example, during the past crash, our indicators led us to believe that the DOW wouldn’t go past 7200, but it actually went down to 6440.

Harry claims there is an 80-year new economic cycle. This 80-year cycle is described as the 4 seasons model. There are always 4 seasons that occur in economics just like summer, spring, winter, and fall. We had the spring boom during the 1940s to 1960s. From 68 to 82 we had the summer downturn in which we experienced inflation and low spending. From 1980 to we went through the fall boom in which the baby boom generation began to spend a lot. We are going from high inflation to low inflation, which causes lower interest rates. The stock market does well when interest rates are low and this causes a bubble. Now we are up against the winter season, in which all our bubbles will decrease and cause deflation.

This 80-year cycle occurs over two generation booms which last around 38 to 40 years each. This cycle is repetitive going backwards, but there is an exception. If you go back into the 1800s, we still had a similar cycle system, but the two generation cycles only lasted about 28 to 30 years. This is because we were more of a farming society at that time. We did not have so many powerful middle class consumers. Right now, the commodity cycle is less important to our countries cycle. Commodities only represent about 10 percent of our economy.

Bruce asks if Harry has a process to determine whether or not false predictions are based on something unforeseen. Harry assumes that when bad predictions are made, that something was missed. Most people assume that the markets just aren’t getting something, and those people will be vindicated. The automobile industry correlated with a technology bubble from 1912 to 1919, and then a big crash occurred in the 1920s. We assumed another bubble would happen in 2006, but we did not see this. Harry tried to find an explanation for this by searching through history. He found a commodity cycle and a geopolitical cycle. During the boom of 2006, we had oil prices dramatically increasing which affected our ability to accurately predict the effect of the boom. Also, we had war problems which affected Harry’s predictions.

Harry Dent’s website is www.hsdent.com

You can find his books there and other activities which his company is involved with.  Join us for part two with harry Dent next week.

154-TNG Radio – Cantu and Alvarez 12-26-09

Wednesday, December 23rd, 2009

Mike-Cantu

Mike Cantu

Investor

 

Tony-Alvarez

Tony Alvarez

Investor

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This week Bruce is joined by Mike Cantu and Tony Alvarez. Both of them are very successful California real estate investors.

At the end of 2006, Mike made a list of people that he thought would be out of business in a short period of time. Later he discovered that his predictions were true. Bruce asks what was wrong with their business plan that caused them to fail. Mike said that these people did not know how to adapt to market change. They had unsustainable lifestyles. They were spending between $10,000 to $20,000 dollars per month, and that lifestyle ultimately brought them down during the rough times. Many had negative cash flow on their investments, they were too optimistic, and they were speculating too much. Some people have a hard time understanding the difference between speculators and investors. Mike labels himself an investor in the rental market, and he labels himself a real estate entrepreneur in the buy/sell business. In the late 1980s, people were speculating how high prices would go, and they thought prices were going to keep going up, and many of them were hurt badly. Mike has a much more conservative business plan than those people.

When Bruce and Tony met in 2003, he was considering leaving the real estate market. Bruce made a list of similarities and differences between Tony and Mike. Tony chose to unload his properties, but Mike did not, and both of them are very happy with their outcomes. Tony had a variety of properties, and he felt that his assets would be more difficult to manage. He was also facing high taxes, so he chose to 1031 exchange into commercial property. He had a good friend who was involved in the building of shopping centers, so he had the right relationships to make good commercial deals.

When Mike saw properties go up in 2006, he chose to hold onto his properties, and he is still proud of his decision. Mike wanted to have enough rental income to live life on his terms. After he made his big mistake, he just wanted to have one more chance to achieve his goal of freedom, and he didn’t want to take the risk of losing it. He realized that he had everything he had hoped to obtain, so he felt no need to trade his properties for more money. He also realized that if he decided to sell his properties then he would eventually choose to reinvest that money back into real estate. He already had all the real estate he needed, so he just decided to keep it. However, he has made upgrades on the properties that he owns. He traded his lower quality houses for good houses in good neighborhoods. These houses take care of him, and now he feels that the rest of his life is an open book because those homes take care of all his expenses.

Bruce has watched people made desperate decisions over the last few years. He met one man who had $16 million worth in real estate, $12 million of debt, and $30 thousand dollars of negative cash flow. Bruce knew that this man had $4 million in equity, but he was very glad that he was not in the same position. That man lost a lot of what he had. Decisions made in desperation don’t work out very well. The philosophy of buying, holding and paying off assets saves you from making desperate decisions.

Bruce asks Tony what he would do if he had lost everything and he had to restart from scratch. Tony did a little experiment in which he asked himself, “What would I do if I was starting from nothing in San Diego.” It took him 2 days to analyze everything in the MLS, and use the same concepts he teaches in his books. He called agents and did not tell him that he was an investor. The agents quickly decided to work with him.

Tony received a negative response from an investor who had attended his classes. This investor told Tony that he had been working in San Diego, because there was no opportunity there. He told Tony that he could not get a deal. Not long after that, Tony got an email from two men in their twenties. They had done 8 deals within the last 12 months and gained about $200,000. Tony discovered that they only $1,000 dollars to start out with.

Tony tells Bruce that if he had to start over, he would take whatever resources he had and go back to the Antelope Valley. He would use his knowledge about real estate to do exactly what he had done before. He would look for inventory that would provide him with positive cash flow.

Bruce noted that both Mike and Tony have a sense of humor. Bruce thinks that Mike’s humor has been a big part of his success. Mike has zero expectations from his close friends, but he wants to have a good laugh every day. He does not want to take life too seriously. Bruce’s business involves taking peoples’ expectations down from the sky, and bringing it to earth.  Bruce and Tony both enjoy a show call “The Pawn Shop.” Bruce noticed that there are three negotiating types displayed in the three characters. There is one character with a good sense of humor, and he easily gets people to reduce their prices by making sellers laugh.

If Mike was starting from scratch, he would hunt for a partner with money and credit. He would present a detailed plan to this partner, and continue learning about the investment that he wants to get involved in. He would do his best to become an asset to his partner rather than a liability.

Tony made a partner out of a hard money lender. He was just coming out of bankruptcy, but he was able to show the lender what he had going for him. He showed the lender his knowledge and ability to find deals. He had a mindset that he was going to walk out of the lender’s office with money.

Bruce asks Mike who his important mentors have been, because he has spent a lot of time getting an education. Mike feels fortunate that his first mentor was Mick Blackwell. He was not an easy man to do business with, or getting along with, but he pushed Mike very hard to do his best. Mick’s usual response to anything Mike did for him was, “Is that the best you can do?” This made Mike want to do his best to impress Mick. Mick also lived very conservatively. His wife has a lot of nice things, but Mick could be satisfied with a trailer in his backyard.

Tony considers his first two mentors to be his mom and dad. His dad encouraged Tony to integrate into American society. His dad taught him to be persistent and to do hard work. His mother taught him how to negotiate and build relationships. They did not have money to go to Catholic school, but Tony’s mother negotiated the school leader to let them in for free. Tony’s first business mentor was Victor Ayela. Victor told Tony that appraisers were making a fortune, and that he would be crazy not to learn about that business. Tony learned negotiating skills from a liquor buyer named Al Rudolph. Tony learned a lot about business integrity from a man named Joe Germaine. Many of his mentors were not in real estate. Most of the people that Tony enjoys doing business with are people who are true to their word, and they look for solutions to problems rather than let themselves be absorbed by problems.

Bruce believes that Tony, Mike and himself are going to be some of the main trainers for the next generation, and he takes that very seriously, because he was given the opportunity to learn from people like Jack Miller. Bruce remembers that he is the example for the next generation. Mike has always felt that he has an obligation to give back because of the help he received from other people. Mike wants to leave the better place than the way he entered it. He feels that it is very rewarding to help other people, and he enjoys the notes he gets in the mail about the way he has affected other peoples’ lives.

It was not easy for Mike to transition into his role as a teacher. The first time he was going to give a public speech, he threw up from his jitters and he considered bolting, but he felt very good after he gave his speech.

Thank you Mike and Tony for taking the time to do the interview. Happy holidays for those reading. Look forward to more interviews in 2010!

153-TNG Radio – Cantu and Alvarez 12-19-09

Friday, December 18th, 2009

Mike-Cantu

Mike Cantu

Investor

 

Tony-Alvarez

Tony Alvarez

Investor

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This week Bruce is joined by real estate investors Mike Cantu and Tony Alvarez.

Tony started working in the real estate industry in 1981. He became an appraiser, and then started buying houses in Burbank. He eventually went on to invest in apartments and other types of real estate. Tony believes that what really gave him an edge in the business was his training as an appraiser. If you look at the front part of an appraisal form, it gives you all the information you need to focus your attention on.

Mike Cantu became attracted to the real estate business after watching a late night infomercial. The infomercial was about a surfer who claimed that he went from being a 20-year-old loser to a millionaire in a year. Mike Cantu believed the infomercial and decided to pursue real estate as a career. That night he took some notes and he created a list of goals. He and his friend Chuck went to a free promotional seminar. After going to the seminar, he revised those goals substantially upwards. His first goal was very modest; it was to pay the 40 dollar balance on his retread tires at J&J Tires.

People being trained by Bruce are viewing his finished project and it is very intimidating, because they cannot even imagine owning one of his properties. Bruce asks Mike how important it is to escape reality and set goals for future desires. Mike believes that goal-setting is the most important part of investment. Without a plan and goals you will wander aimlessly. Mike is a very goal oriented person. He has a stack of goal labeled cards which he reviews daily. Mike described a Harvard study in which a graduating class was interviewed. They tracked down that graduating class 20 years later, and they found that 3 percent of the graduates had set long term goals, and that 3 percent had a combined net worth that was greater than the other 97 percent.

Bruce asks Tony when he began to set goals for becoming wealthy, and actually believed he could do it. Tony began to set goals after his first bad experience in the 80s. His initial goal, after coming out of bankruptcy in 1993, was to get to 1 million dollars and 10,000 dollars a month in income. That was a big deal for him because he did not even have a car at that time, and he was working at Shakeys. His income eventually reached 55,000 dollars a month. He made all that money by working with REO agents.

Freedom is what defines wealth for Mike. Wealth gives him the freedom to do what he wants and live life on his terms. Mike obtained his first level of freedom in 2000. He realized then that he had all the things he needed to pay of some of his debts. Mike once thought he was invincible and that he could avoid the mistakes that many other people made, and he was wrong. He often found himself taking three steps forward and two steps back, but he does not regret the mistakes he made, because he learned from them.

Tony was born in Cuba and his family immigrated to the New England area. He grew up very differently than the other people in his area, and the struggles he faced helped him to develop certain personality traits which he believes greatly helped him in his business. Tony never felt that he was poor even though he was not able to buy some of the things that other people had. Tony describes the wealth he has as his piece of mind. He does not have to get up and go to a job. He is not being forced to work for someone else every day without being able to control his destiny.

Bruce explains that feeling of control of his destiny and his family’s destiny. It does not feel good knowing that you do not have control of your family’s destiny, and to know that you cannot let them experience all the things you wanted them to. Tony warns that investors must be careful when they start feeling like they are free and clear. Mike tells everyone that there is always a way to screw up your plans. He has tried to dumb-proof his plans, which has lead him to investing in well located single-family houses with good schools and no debt on it.

Mike agrees with Tony’s definition of wealth. Mike believes there are three life currencies, which he calls money, time, and serenity. You can have the first two, but if you don’t have the third then the money and time is not very valuable. Once Mike gained his serenity, he realized that it was something he never wanted to let go of, and he works every day to maintain it.

In 1985 to 1989, people gained a great amount of equity. Bruce asks Mike how well they were doing during that time.  In the 80s, Mike was still learning to invest. He started his business in 1982. When the real estate market picked up, he started building houses and developing them. In 1987, he developed plans to become a big-time real estate developer. At that time, he did not understand that real estate has different cycles, and eventually he lost a lot of what he had gained.

Tony did very well during this same time period. He started as an appraiser because he wanted to invest. He learned a lot from banks, because he was able to look through all their files. He studied how banks qualified people, and he studied their top clients. He took that knowledge into his investing business. He also gained a lot of money by appraising for other investors. By the end of this cycle, he felt like quitting both sides of the business, because his work was all about the money and he was worn out. When he gained a large sum of money, he allowed someone else to handle his money for him, and he lost it all. When he went bankrupt, he had to walk home from the L.A. courthouse to Burbank. This gave him a lot of time to think about what he would not do the next time around.

After Mike’s bad run in building, he owned a lot of land, unfinished houses, a big subdivision, and a couple of unfinished condo projects. He learned from that experience that no matter how well you do, you can lose everything. Unfortunately, at that time he did not realize that you could also go negative, and dig a hole that takes time to get out of.

Not everyone chooses to dig themselves out of those sorts of problem. Some choose to walk away from their debts. Bruce has had people brag to him about how they own a rental that they haven’t made a payment on for 15 months. Mike considered the possibility of a corporate bankruptcy, but his partner encouraged him to pay off his debts. Bankruptcy decisions can hurt a lot of people other than the one declaring bankruptcy. It took Mike two years to take care of his debts, but everyone he was working with gained from his work, and he feels good about the decision he made.

It is very important to choose who you do business with. Mike suggests that you approach your search for a partner with the same seriousness that you would approach your search for a spouse. Mike has been approached for many partnership deals, but he accepts very few of them. He always asks his potential partners about how they are doing financially, because you do not want to let someone else’s bad decisions affect you.

The main less Tony learned from the down market in the early 90s was that he did not have to go into bankruptcy. Unfortunately, he did not realize this until later. Tony was given bankruptcy advice from an attorney, and he encouraged Tony to do it because he gained a fee from that decision. Tony warns that if you are chasing after deals out of fear for something, then you will eventually lose whatever you are making. When Toney came out of bankruptcy he learned to set goals. He was not so concerned with just making money, but with gaining his piece of mind. After he experienced bankruptcy, he came out with a better sense of who he was and what the ultimate purpose of his real estate business was.

Mike’s primary lesson from his downturn was that the bad times will not last forever. Everything will pass in time. He also learned the power of goals. He gained the determination to clean up the mess he had made. He also realized how important it is to figure out what you are really pursuing in life. Mike views real estate as a means to an end.

Bruce’s real estate experience has lead him to his passion, which is teaching. He enjoys the experience of calculating statistics that can be used to help other people. This discussion will continue next week. Mike and Tony will be back next week.

116-TNG Radio – David Rosnick 4-4-09

Friday, April 3rd, 2009

David-Rosnick

David Rosnick

Economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research

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Bruce Norris is joined this week by David Rosnick, Economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research.

Bruce talks about reading several years back that the Baby Boom generation was worth trillions and in great position to retire. David says the Baby Boomers have a fair amount of wealth and every generation typical has grown in wealth over the years. Baby Boomers, however, have been recently hit by the stock market and housing bubble that has caused some great losses.

In a recent report written by David and his team on this very issue, it says the Baby Boom situation looks much bleaker than 8 months ago. Bruce asks how they are coping with this fact. David says the Baby Boom generation has been witnessing the trend for two years. Last summer the savings rate started to increase and consumption has really slowed. The full effects of this contraction in spending and consumption has yet to fully hit the market. David says he’d like to see the government continue the money stimulus and look into subsidizing shorter work weeks, vacation, and sick leave.

Bruce asks if the wealth members of the Baby Boom generation would be harder hit by stock prices and the poorer be more affected by the real estate declines. David says the wealthiest are indeed more likely to own stock but are also more likely to be home owners. The bottom 1/5 of households could get completely wiped out with foreclosure.

Bruce asks David how he feels about recent solutions presented by the government such as the cramdown. David says he’s not so concerned but would like to see the homes go back to the bank and perhaps the individuals getting to stay in their homes and pay market rent. David says the bank doesn’t want to try to take it over and sell the property in this market. By keeping the homeowner in the home, it’s a win-win situation. Bruce brings up that the prices are very skewed in California. David says the bank just needs to decide how they want to take the loss. By not making this mandatory the banks would not participate as they are being a stubborn. Bruce asks how the lenders would react if this was made mandatory. How much would then be available for lending? David says there will always be solid prospects and that it wouldn’t really matter.

Bruce asks David about people stating their income and if they should be held responsible for that. David says that lenders were more responsible for that as he understands it. When real estate was headed up, it didn’t matter and no one cared. This is an example of an unsustainable home bubble that people refused to acknowledge.

David created a housing cost calculator which compares owning vs. renting the same home. Bruce asks if the price to own is much more than renting. David says historically it hasn’t been that different. David says when it went way out of whack that it was almost guaranteed that there would be loss.

Bruce asks if bubbles ultimately benefit people. David says bubbles that are uncontrolled is a problem. Bruce says many were refinancing and spending the money. There must have been a short-term streak of wealth. David says people thought they were very wealthy and savings rates went way down.

Bruce asks if there should be some acceptance of risk when any investment is made. David says experts gave people a lot of bad advice and since there was a lack of an alternative voice, it wasn’t very fair. People were told that real estate was the way to wealth. Bruce asks if people should absorb that risk or if there is a backstop to save them. David says Social Security and defined benefit plans act as that backstop. Personal savings is only one alternative. David explains the difference between defined benefit plans versus defined contribution plan. Bruce says that guarantees of payout were as good as investments made. David says the bubble market really hurt these potential retirement funds. When things get so out of line, people make bad planning decision.

Bruce asks if defined benefit plans for cities like Vallejo that just declared bankruptcy will ever see that money. David says in California he’s not sure who is getting what. Bruce says that defined benefit programs typically have a projected return rate and almost all have seen losses. David says that those promises will most likely not be able to be upheld because of the economy.

Bruce asks David is he is afraid for seniors as they retire. The Baby Boomers encompasses the 45-64 age range. The older baby boomers are about to retire so there’s a little more concern there. The younger Baby Boomers have a little more time to get back on track. Overall, they aren’t looking good so far. He says the lower 1/5 could be completely wiped out because of foreclosure.

Bruce asks if we should be worried about the Social Security Program since the baby Boomers will have less population paying for benefits as they retire. He says it’s nothing urgent but today the health care costs are getting worse and are more of an issue as Medicare and Medicaid need to be helped. David says socialized medicine might be a possibility since it’s worked in other countries. We have the best medicine but the worst delivery system.

In David’s report entitled “The Wealth of the Baby Boom Cohorts After the Collapse of the Housing Bubble,” David says the net worth of Baby Boomers that owned a home was less than those that were renters in 2009 which is surprising. David says wealth isn’t just in equity and the housing and stock bubble real caused a problem.

More on this report at the Center for Economic and Policy Research at cepr.net. Next week join us as we welcome back Tommy Williams, co-founder of Williams and Williams auction company.

David Rosnick is an Economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, DC. He has a Ph.D. in Computer Science from North Carolina State University and an M.A. in Economics from George Washington University. He has written numerous policy papers including “The Burden of Social Security Taxes and the Burden of Excessive Health Care Costs” with Dean Baker, March 2005; “Poor Numbers: The Impact of Trade Liberalization on World Poverty”, with Mark Weisbrot and Dean Baker, November 2004; “NAFTA at Ten: The Recount,â€� with Mark Weisbrot and Dean Baker, March 2004; and “Black Swans, Conspiracy Theories, and the Quixotic Search for Fraud: A Look at Hausmann and Rigobon’s Analysis of Venezuela’s Referendum Vote” with Mark Weisbrot and Todd Tucker, September 2004; and “The Forty-Four Trillion Dollar Deficit Scare,” with Dean Baker, September 2003.

He is the architect of a growing number of calculators including CEPR’s Accurate Benefits Calculator which compares current-law Social Security benefits to the Bush Plan based on “Progressive Indexing.” He also created the Housing Cost Calculator, which compares the cost of owning a home relative to renting for a potential new homeowner. It gives homebuyers a sense of how the current bubble in the housing market might affect them. Prior to joining CEPR, he worked as a Research Associate (postdoc) at the North Carolina State University at Raleigh Department of Computer Science.