The Norris Group Blog

California Real Estate Headline Roundup

Posts Tagged ‘VA’

By Bruce Norris .

270-TNGRadio – Bill Shipp 3-24-12

Friday, March 23rd, 2012

Bill-Shipp

Bill Shipp

California Investor


(Full Bio)

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This week Bruce Norris is joined by Bill Shipp. Bill has been one of the largest wholesale buyers of real estate in Riverside for many years. He has a unique system that can even be done from a distance, which he proves every day by living in another state.

Bruce interviewed Bill on the show last year, and he was one of the bigger hits. On the show there were a lot of knowledgeable investors who were very enthralled with his system. When you can impress the people who work every day in the field, then that is pretty good. Bill has been buying real estate full-time since 1986, but he has been dabbling in it since the early ‘70s. He bought a five-unit apartment in Long beach as a rental, and he found it he could sell it and make more money than if he had kept it as a rental. Before that, the first property he ever bought was a little lot in Quail Valley outside of Canyon Lake, which he bought from a family member. He had it for a few years when he saw he could sell it and make more money than what he paid for it.

Bruce wondered why there was a gap between the ‘70s and 1986. Bill said during this time he had gone to work for the corporate world where he worked for U.S. Suzuki for about six years. He worked his way up to be distribution manager. He then quit this and went to work for a logistics company down in Long Beach, which was millions of square feet of warehouse and inventory. He was in charge of distribution and trucking. It was at this time his friend told him about real estate. This was in 1986. He took vacation for a week and used this time to attend a real estate boot camp with a gentleman named Alla Peter. He was very heavy into buying the VA repose and the HUD repose back when the VAs were up to 7% commission. At this time you could buy them as an investor with 10% down. After the commission and after buying them, you are in it for a whole 3%. This was what started him in the rental business, which he bought quite a few. At his peak he had 42 rentals; now he has one.

It took him a long time to sell rentals in the 90s when it was really hurting everybody, so he did not like rentals in the 90s. He went through the boot camp for a week, and he was convinced to quit the corporate world. He was not even making six figures at this time, but he was responsible for a lot of people and inventory. He really did not know what the status of his job would be as he could be fired any day, or the company could be bought out and transferred. With the real estate, he really liked the idea of being his own boss and having all the inventory in Southern California that he could get a hold of. Inventory cost was nothing until you owned it.

Bruce wondered if anyone in Bill’s tight circle looked at his decision and wondered if he had made the wrong decision. Bill said yes that indeed people were thinking this, especially the people he worked for. He literally went through the boot camp, went back into his company, and gave his two-week notice. He quit and started selling.

Bruce said it is always interesting to him when people get into the business because it gives them a certain bend on the way you think things work. 1986-1989 was a heck of a run. If you touched a property, it would be tough to make a mistake. The prices were quickly escalating, and interest rates were not reasonable although they were more reasonable than in ’80 and ’81. At this time they were 8%. When Bruce got into the business in 1981, he refinanced his house at 17 ½%. This tainted how he looked at real estate because it was not something where you could cash flow. You had to touch it and let it go. There was no way to finance things like this and make it work.

In 1986 when Bill was getting a 7% commission and only having to put 10% down, he was able to buy a lot of houses. The same thing happened from 2005-2007 when everybody thought the answer was to buy rentals or flip. Back in 1986, people were buying houses, and money was pretty available. This was what Bill did, and he was very excited about it. He was seeing his net worth go up and was having some positive cash flow off of it. Then, when 1990 hit, he had a negative cash flow, and his houses were down $30,000 a house, he lost about $1 million. Fortunately, he had friends who thought this was still a good time to buy. They went in50% as partners with him to take care of his houses, and this was able to keep him alive. They infused him with some liquidity, which helped with the negative cash flow since now instead of the $300-$400 a month; he was down to $150 a month.

This impresses Bruce because this is creative. Not many people would ask how they would extricate themselves and still have properties. Bill Shipp found a way to do this. He probably found money partners who did not exactly have the same skills and used them. Bill found good things. The people who helped Bill out were his corporate friends, people who were accountants of financial planners who say you should buy real estate now since it is down. It was an easy win-win for them. Bill now had good money behind him. His other option was to walk from them, which a lot of people at that time did. Bill didn’t and was glad because he has a great credit score to this day where he can go out and get financing anytime he wants. If he had let them go, he probably still would have received financing but would have been charged a lot.

Bill did hard money loans when he first started flipping. It was back in 1988 and 1989 when he was into full-time flipping. He paid 13% and 3 to 5 points, maybe even 15%; which is still normal. At the time he thought he was high, but it worked. If you have access to money and the profit is there, then it really doesn’t matter what your interest rate is or your points. It is when you look at it and you’re done with it; if you have made money on it, it’s okay.

When he started in 1986, the name Bill Shipp was not the household name that it is now. When he first started in real estate, he went to work for an office in Riverside since this was where the houses were. At the time he was living down in Newport Beach and commuting out to Riverside. He thought he needed to move to Riverside, which he did. He started in real estate by selling to investors. He sold houses to some of his corporate friends, who were buy and hold people rather than buy and sell. He had flipped a couple houses before; then he saw the money they were making and said he was not going to work with clients anymore and started buying full-time for himself. His name got out when he was in Riverside as an agent. He was buying the HUD and VA repose as well as talked to different agents. He started talking to the agents who if they found something, he would buy from them and let them represent him. This was where he started. He started really promoting himself by actually going into real estate offices and giving talks to them.

Bruce said he remembered sending a flyer back in the ‘90s when he was buying a fair amount of properties; he had calculated how much agents had made on commission. It was not an organized plot, but rather had just happened. He decided he needed to do the same kind of thing and sent out a flyer which said how much realtors had made the previous year, and it was ridiculous. It was around $300,000 on his transactions, and he wanted to do more of this. Therefore, 1200 of these flyers went into everybody’s slot. He got no phone calls from any of this. What was interesting about all this was this was not necessarily where realtors were excited to go with their time to work with investors. This may have been because they had an experience with a particular investor who did not do what they said they were going to do. Or the managers of the offices said they should not work with investors. When Bill was an agent, his whole career was only with investors. He never worked with a homeowner. How you get started sometimes really colors what you think is wise to do.

One thing about investors is a multiple transaction is possible with each one of them. On the other hand, if somebody buys a house and we don’t see them until five years from now, then that is a big difference. Also, once a real estate agent has worked with a successful investor, they will probably not work with a regular customer. He does not want to deal with them, but rather with someone who makes decisions immediately and makes them for different reasons. You don’t have to look at a house and wish it had a nine-foot ceiling; you just want to know if the numbers make sense. When an agent is working with Bill, he does not have to go get all his family members to look at the property. A decision is made, they like it, and they will not have to have an open house. This was the way Bill created his business by working with real estate agents and passing out the flyers. He then followed up with meetings and talked to the real estate agents in their office meetings and would find one agent out of the forty-fifty there who was interested in talking to him. You can then show them your history, and this gets them excited. You then go into training them.

Bill has trained every agent that he has worked with on how to work with an investor. They already know how to work with a customer as a homeowner, but they don’t know how to work with an investor. Bruce wondered what the difference was between the two between agents who deal with the investors and those who don’t. Bill said for one there really isn’t any emotion, especially for him. He spends more time buying a hat for himself than a house, so there is really not much emotion to it. A lot of the agents probably would not even walk in some of the houses that Bruce and Bill buy. A typical agent who is out there doing their farms, working in a nice neighborhood, dealing with the family, listing the house, and doing their flyers would be afraid to walk in certain houses. It takes a special person to look at a type of house and be able to figure the numbers out with the investor and tell them whether it’s good or not.

Since Bill does his kind of work from a distance in Park City, Bruce wondered if this puts a dent in his buying ability. However, he said his best buying year was 2010 when he was living in Park City full-time. Most people are absolutely enthralled with this because they are trying to do their work really well locally, and Bill is doing the work from a distance with a team. Bill works with the team and is really specific about his areas. He had a call at a house in San Bernardino, and he said it was really not his area because he has to ask a lot of questions such as what it is worth and how the neighborhood is. He does not want to spend the time to do this, and he cannot do it from Park City. He has agents in Park City who he plays tennis with who want him to flip in Salt Lake. He responded saying he has no clue about Salt Lake because when they tell him about a house on the street, he has no idea what the value is or what it is going to cost to fix it. However, when an agent calls and tells him about a house in Riverside, he knows exactly what the value is going to be and how much it is going to cost since he has been dealing with the same contractor for ten years.

Somebody hearing the story may think he is really delegating a lot, but the truth is you really have an awful lot of personal knowledge that gets you 90% there before you have to rely on someone on your team to fill in the gap. With the team and agent that Bill works with, when he calls and tells him a house is worth $185,000, he knows that it is worth $185,000. He never will deal with an agent or somebody who says they think they could get around $190-$200. As soon as they start talking like that, you really need to sit them down and say you don’t need this spread and show them what you think you can sell it for. If you are making $20,000 on a house and they tell you the spread is $10,000, then that is 50% of your profit. You cannot do this. Bill said most of his sales prices are literally within a few thousand of what he thought. It is not $10, $20, or $30,000 off. What is so important about that is this is a competitive market, so your spread cannot be that big because you would have somebody else competitively bidding against you that knew exactly what it was worth and would have a tighter bid than yours. Either this or your profit would disappear completely, which gets old pretty fast.

Bill hears all the time about competition, and he has never worried about it. He has also talked about in the past what people think about the future, about what Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac is going to do, or about Greece. He really does not care. Also, when an agent tells him to hold onto something for a year it should be worth $20,000 more, he really doesn’t care what a year is. His whole time in 2010 was 89 days, so he cared what was happening in the next 90 days. In 2011 he was a little nervous since it went up to about 104 days. It really doesn’t matter six months to a year from now; he just wants to know what the price is today.

Bruce wondered if Bill is typically buying something at this point that is owned by a lender, which Bill said he is. Short sales are not a big part of it as he has only bought two or three short sales in his whole career. There are some short sales when there were not a lot of lender-owned things, such as ’85-’89. Bruce wondered if it was privately owned, to which Bill said privately owned was when he used to have some ladies who worked for him who were like bird dogs who followed the notices of defaults and trusteed sales. This was more in the early ‘90s. The late ‘80s were VA and HUD repos. There were a lot especially from ’87-’89, even at the strength of the market. It was at this time people were paying a 7% commission trying to get rid of them. Bill bought his first VA repo in 1986 at the time when Bruce was running ads in the newspaper saying he bought houses. Bill said he never did anything like running an ad or hanging flyers on a telephone pole, although Bruce said by doing this you can understand trends better because your calls change. Bruce was doing very well between ’86 and ’90, then all of a sudden the calls tripled when no one had equity. Bruce was almost in the counseling business. He owed $130,000 when it was only worth $95,000, so he had to figure out what to do.

When Bill worked in the corporate world in a management position, he really delegated a lot. He used this in his real estate business for going out and knocking on doors. This was something he did about two or three times. He then trained other people to do it, and he had a couple people who all they did was knock on doors. These people would set up the appointments, tell Bill what the people owed, and then have the people fill out a form so Bill knew if they had a first or second trust deed. Bill had done his comps on the properties, figured out what they were worth, then went in and tried to put a deal together. He did not really knock on the doors himself but rather had a team that broke the ice. When dealing with VAs, this other method was fairly successful. The VAs died up around ’89, and this was when he started a new system. He was not going to try to keep doing the same thing if there wasn’t any.

Prior to 2006, there were very few REOs, and Bill was buying out of the MLS. Bill said he has always bought out of the MLS as this has always been there. There are some really good deals here; there are just some people who don’t get it yet. For example, Bill had just come from a long vacation; and while he was gone he told his contractor he was going to be gone and was going to let him buy his deals while he was gone. He bought four while Bill was gone, and one of them was in a great neighborhood in Riverside. He bought a house for $70,000 under market value out of the MLS.

This was at the time when there were no REOs, the market was going up drastically every month, and people were saying there was no way you could buy great deals out of the MLS. However, you can always do two errors by agents. This particular error was about 400 square feet on the square footage of the house. They turned in their BPO, and it was 400 square feet off and priced accordingly. This was the case of a typical builder who had a bonus room that could have been finished or not finished. A lot of times it got finished and was never caught in the building permits and updated with the MLS. This was an example of a great deal just because of input error. When the prices were drastically going up starting in 2003, the errors were made by opinion of value by the real estate agent. Therefore, houses were listed way under what they should have been. This was at the time he was buying houses when they were going up $10,000 a month. Therefore, there are always different reasons why you can always buy in the MLS.

Part of the situation is you know this is true and the agent knows it’s true. There is an expectation that things are going to work, and it comes across to whoever has the listing. If there is expectation that an offer is a stupid one and you are embarrassed to present it, this comes across too. Some people just do not want to submit because they get embarrassed. Even nowadays the property is not owned by a person, but by a bank. One of the things with the cycle is you are usually not dealing with a human being who has a loss at stake, but rather it is a lender. In one example, Bruce had a listing that he gave to someone named Dave Cooley who used to be a bog realtor in Grand Terrace. He had an offer from an investment company; but what he did not realize was within about a week of him getting this listing; Bruce had the chance to buy a big 5-bedroom house for $76 grand. If he sold this house and one other house he owned, he could pay in cash. However, he needed to do it quickly. Dave had an offer from a big company, but he was embarrassed to tell Bruce about it. It took him three days to finally apologize for the offer. Bruce told him he would not only take that offer, but would like the same offer on his residence and would do both of them. Dave almost fell off his chair, but he did not realize Bruce’s circumstances had changed. He had a profit motive to say yes to two discounted deals.

Ben Gay III has a great sales book, but one of the questions he asks is if you would own one and would do the process yourself. Bruce said there are times when he would say yes. He would say yes to the offers he is making that are simple and all cash as opposed to doing what normally has to be done to sell a house. One thing that is not a secret to people like Bruce and Bill is they go through the sales process and know it is not a fun journey to go through the normal retail sale. The reason why you did these was because it was opportunity. On one side you are willing to give up $10-$15,000 because you are making $50,000 on the other side. You cannot be stubborn about the $10 grand. What seemed like a big discount was really a big profit center.

Tune in next week for the second part of Bruce’s interview with Bill Shipp.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 8/5/11

Friday, August 5th, 2011

Sources:
Homeownership Rate Drops to 13-Year Low
June Pending Home Sales Rise
Mortgage Applications Increase, But Still Low in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Job growth slows and layoffs rise to 16-month high, reports say
Home prices edge up in June, but fail to meet 2010 levels
Mortgage Rates Drop to Lowest of the Year
Senate steps toward new mortgage servicing standard
Key US markets with “pending” signs of life
House legislation would launch FDIC investigation
RealtyTrac Tool Provides Targeted Lists of Defaults, Auctions, and REOs
Investors charge ahead with another reps and warranties case against BofA
S&P: Trouble Ahead for PMI Mortage Insurance Co.

Today’s News Synopsis:

This week’s video gives the news of the week in the world of real estate and other big events. PMI Mortgage Insurance Co. has suffered severe financial losses and therefore may have to cut back on writing insurance policies.  DS News reported the unemployment rate is now at 9.1%.  Bank of America has reached a settlement with HUD to give loan modifications to 57,000 borrowers whose loans were not handled properly.

In The News:

Bloomberg- “Debt Restructuring Would Spur Growth: Reinhart” (8-5-11)

“A restructuring of U.S. household debt, including debt forgiveness for low-income Americans, would be most effective in speeding economic growth, said Carmen Reinhart, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.”

Housing Wire“HAMP mortgage mods reaching permanent status faster” (8-5-11)

“Homeowners who entered into a Home Affordable Modification Program trial within the last year were transferred into a permanent workout almost two months faster than those who entered the program earlier.”

DS News“Unemployment Rate Slips to 9.1%” (8-5-11)

“After heading higher for three straight months, the nation’s unemployment rate declined to 9.1 percent in July, down from 9.2 percent in June, according to figures released Friday by the U.S. Department of Labor. The economy added 117,000 jobs last month.”

Inman - “Private mortgage insurers face uncertainty” (8-5-11)

“Cracks are again appearing in the foundations of the private mortgage insurance business, as companies that insure home loans with down payments of less than 20 percent for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac face rising claims and continue to struggle for market share against government-backed FHA and VA programs.”

Realty Times - “Consumers, real estate pros tap shift to rentals” (8-5-11)

“Freddie Mac (OTC: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing mortgage rates dropping sharply amid falling bond yields and signs of a weaker than expected economy.”

Los Angeles Times - “Construction employment hits 15-month high in July” (8-5-11)

“Another reason to not declare the end of the world as we know it, yet: Construction employment climbed last month, hitting a 15-month high, according to the Associated General Contractors of America.”

Housing Wire - “Obama administration July housing scorecard sends mixed signals” (8-5-11)

“The nation’s housing market experienced an uptick in home prices this summer, but remains constrained by declines in home values in foreclosures and distressed real estate, the Obama Administration said in its July Housing Scorecard report.”

San Francisco Chronicle - “Is The Housing Bubble Over?” (8-5-11)

“For most parts of the U.S., the housing bubble peaked in 1996 and prices have steadily declined ever since. The amount of decline has varied by city and state, driven by several factors such as job losses, demographics and the magnitude of run-up in prices.”

Realtor Magazine“S&P: Trouble Ahead for PMI Mortage Insurance Co.” (8-5-11)

“PMI warned that it may have to stop writing insurance policies in 16 states due to the company’s severe financial losses.  On Thursday, Standard & Poor’s downgraded the PMI Group and its subsidiary PMI Mortgage Insurance Co.’s credit and financial strength rating, giving it a negative outlook due to the company’s steep losses in recent months.”

DS News“BofA to Pursue Loss Mitigation Under HUD Settlement” (8-5-11)

“Bank of America and the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) have reached a settlement regarding 57,000 delinquent government-issued mortgages serviced by the bank.”

Looking Back:

Freddie Mac reported 30-year fixed mortgage rates fell below 4.5%. Home prices increased 8.1% from this time in 2009, according to Clear Capital. Statistics from the Department of Labor showed initial unemployment insurance claims rose 19,000 the previous week.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

208-TNG Radio – Norris Group 1-7-11

Friday, January 7th, 2011
Greg Norris

(Full Bio)

(Full Bio)

The Norris Group

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This week Bruce is joined again by Greg Norris and Craig Hill. Greg is the vice president of TNG Auctions. He buys properties and resells them. Craig has been working with Bruce for 15 years, and is responsible for speaking to all potential borrowers for The Norris Group.

TNG gets many calls from new investors who tend to have some misconceptions. One of the biggest misconceptions these investors have is that they don’t need to use personal cash when using hard money loans. Craig suggests that borrowers have $30,000 for every $100,000 you desire to borrow. Also, many people believe that having credit issues will disqualify them, but credit issues can be ignored if they have an appropriate amount of cash. On the other hand, there are some investors with 800 credit scores and minimal cash reserves who will probably be disqualified.

If a house is worth $100,000, $75,000 should be the total between the purchase price and repairs. People do not understand that you cannot effectively invest in a house with very little money.

There are many lenders who will make a loan regardless of whether or not it will be profitable for the investor. The Norris Group offers investors another level of protection, because we have an appraiser with an investor background. Craig estimates that TNG’s appraiser prevents 2 to 3 investors every week from getting a bad deal. Once someone gets a deal, Craig prefers that the investor send him the property info immediately. There are many people who overlook details like “year built” or “lot size”. People treat investing in real estate like people who gamble in Vegas; they believe they cannot lose.

Sometimes investors start with something that is above their level of experience. In Bruce’s bootcamp, he takes his students to a home that is above their experience level, and asks them to estimate repairs, so they can learn to stay away from those homes. Craig has noticed that many investors tend to undervalue the cost of repairs and overvalue the sale price. People have come to Craig with an interest in buying property, but he can easily tell whether or not those properties are profitable by seeing who is selling them. If Craig notices that the seller is an experienced investor, that gives him a clue the property is not selling undervalued.

Relying on other people to give you all your buying, repairing and selling numbers is probably not a good idea, especially if those people are on commission. If an agent claims he can sell a property for a certain price which is contrary to Craig’s judgment, Craig suggests the realtor should not charge for the purchase of the property, and only take commission after the sale.

Appraisals have gotten better, in Greg’s opinion. This is partly because of a more stable market. Many short sales are pristine. To determine whether or not a property’s value is accurate, you need to look at all the properties sold within the last 3 months and pending sales. Sometimes you will see houses pending at a high number, but are also short sales; that is obviously not the right number. Sometimes the sold properties in the MLS are not actually sold. You need to know when to speak to a Realist about whether or not a sale occurred.

One of Greg’s most difficult jobs is to appraise a property for the future. He has to take into account which season he will be selling in. This winter has been odd for TNG, because half our properties are pending. Usually properties take longer to sell in the winter. Greg attributes this to the lack of inventory. There are not an overwhelming number of REOs on the market, so sellers still have some power. Also, TNG probably has the only fully repaired product. Greg has gotten better at pricing as well.

It is still hard to know what an appraiser will appraise a TNG house for. Currently, Greg’s least likeable appraisers work for VA, and FHA appraisers are now better to deal with, because FHA allows Greg to use appraisers that understand how to properly appraise a fully repaired house. Appraisers have recently taken a cut in their pay, so they may not look closely at your property unless you get their attention.

Getting a hard money loan is very costly. Craig has received calls from investors who hung up immediately after hearing his hard money interest rates. However, using hard money over a regular, cheaper loan gives you more freedom to do more and make more. One benefit of using hard money loans is that you don’t have to fear not finding necessary cash. When you have a business relationship with someone who is counting on your closing, you cannot go knocking around the neighborhood to find a quick $100,000.

There are some occasions where people receive a “yes” from a lender, but later get cancelled on. If TNG says yes to a deal, the deal is done and funded. TNG only gives borrowers a hard time during the initial process, so that we can know the deal is going to be profitable. This is why agents and escrows like working with TNG, because they know that if TNG gives a commitment, then the deal is going to work.

People might think that TNG’s business model is very simple and easy to replicate, but it isn’t. We have built good relationships with our business partners, which allows us to do business with ease. TNG even passes on a few deals just to maintain respect from its partners. Building a team that trusts you can take years.

When Bruce and Craig first met, the common idea of value was what someone paid for it. If a piece of property was said to be worth $90,000 but was sold for $60,000, then the value was believed to be $60,000. Bruce and Craig disproved this idea, but it was very difficult for Craig to approve Bruce’s loan.

All of Bruce’s seminars make it easier for Craig to do business, because many of TNG’s new clients know a lot about the company. Many of TNG’s clients have had the opportunity to hear Bruce speak, and they’ve researched TNG through our website. This helps Craig as a lender because not only do his clients know how TNG conducts its business, but they also know that we are trustworthy. Some of Craig’s clients trust TNG’s decision making ability more than their own, and that is why they work with him.

Greg’s favorite type of inventory are standard track homes. Greg does not like properties on large lots. Anything over 20,000 square feet is usually bad inventory. Also, he does not like areas that are poorly planned. For example, there are some neighborhoods where there may be one property built in 1960 next to another property built in the 1970s. There are exceptions to this, but Greg prefers to buy safer inventory with more mass appeal. Newer homes are typically more attractive, and they require fewer repairs. Greg has been surprised by how many people are still more attracted to larger homes. He does not mind buying properties on small lots so long as that kind of inventory is selling well in its area.

When Greg is estimating a property’s value, he tries to think of what a property’s resale value will be after 30 days. He has to consider what it will take to attract a buyer within 30 days. There are occasions when he must cut his values, because 5 REOs drop into the market at one time. Greg reviews his asking price once a week for every property TNG owns.

Greg has had a lot of trouble with pool homes. He has spent $25,000 on pool repairs, which wiped out his profit. However, pool homes are not always problematic, and Greg has profited from buying them.

Greg prefers to rely on his own knowledge at a trustee sale. Sometimes he receives friendly advice from other people, but not often.

For m ore information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

194-TNG Radio – I Survived Real Estate 2010 10-02-10

Friday, October 1st, 2010

I Survived Real Estate 2010

I Survived Real Estate 2010


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September 17th, 2010, The Norris Group returns with its award winning event I Survived Real Estate 2010. The video also now available on The Norris Group website.

The Norris Group has assembled an incredible line up of industry experts to discuss the state of REO from the inside. Topics will include regulatory intervention and aftermath, bulk buying, myths and facts, and opportunities emerging for real estate professionals. 100 percent of the proceeds support the Orange County affiliate of Susan G. Komen for the Cure. This event would not be possible without generous help from the following platinum partners: Foreclosure Radar and Sean O’Toole, the San Diego Creative Real Estate Investors Association and Bill Tan, Investors Workshops and Shawn Watkins and Angel Bronsgeest, Invest Club for Women and Iris Veneracion and Bobby Alexander, Claudia Buys Houses, The Business Press, Frye Wiles, MVT Productions, and White House Catering.

This week The Norris Group Real Estate Radio Show is broadcasting I Survived Real Estate 2010.

You must have 2 different criteria for Bruce’s no down payment program in order to prevent foreclosures. The reason why this program will work is because it is set up to serve 3 borrowers simultaneously. Yes, you are going to have a failure rate with a no-down mortgage, but you pick the percentage. When your payment is less than rent, is it going to be 20 percent? Bruce doubts it. But for the sake of argument, let’s say that foreclosure rates are at 20 percent under this program. If 2 million people sign up for the no-down program, and 400,000 people walk away, then let that loan get assumed by the next buyer without qualification. The likely target buyer will be the person who lost their house in foreclosure during the past 3 years. They can’t get new credit, but they might want to return to those “pride of ownership” homes. They will write a check, and save the system from 1 more foreclosure. The original intent of the program is to get first time buyers  into a house. The secondary benefit is it will get homes back to the people that lost their homes.

Have you ever noticed that if you have great financing, then you can get more for a property? You could probably get a premium for financing on Bruce’s program.

A secondary feature of this program is that when it goes to trustee sale, the opening bid would be just the back payments. Example: Lets say you have a loan amount of $150,000 at 4.5% interest. 3 months behind, people begin the foreclosure process. 4 months later, the foreclosure sale begins. You’re 7 months behind on the property’s payment, with $1,000 dollars of payment per month. If the opening bid at the trustee sale was only $9,000, how many do you think would revert to the lender? None of them. We would fight over them. At 4.5% financing, that is an amazing deal. Not a large percentage of the sales would get to that point, but they would provide financing to investors; the group that no one wants to finance. Investors would overbid on a situation as competitive as that.

What would we do with the excess money being raised from these properties? Lets not reward people who do not do what they sign up to do. Let’s build a fund for something that does good. It doesn’t even have to be a government program. Bruce frequently sees ads in the newspaper in which wealthy people are encouraged to donate their money. We should donate this money to a nonprofit company who can make this loan. Doing this will cause no losses, and it will end in a yield. Bruce cannot see this program losing money.

Over the next few weeks we will be broadcasting the speeches given by the rest of panelists. These panelists are Peter Wayman, Christopher Thornberg, Joseph Magdziarz, Sean O’Toole, Tommy Williams, Daniel Phelan, and Sarah Letts.

Peter Wayman joined Freddie Mac in January 2010 as Sr. REO Sales Director.  In this position, he oversees the design of sales strategies and how they are applied across REO portfolios.  His group oversees the retail sales process as well as auction and investor sales.  Peter is also responsible for the affordable strategies selling homes to organizations engaged in neighborhood stabilization.

Wayman came to Freddie Mac with 32 years of executive relocation experience working with various organizations including Cartus, Prudential and Citigroup.  He was recognized for a lifetime industry achievement and inducted into the Hall of Leaders by Worldwide ERC.  Peter is a graduate of Cornell University with a BS in Hotel Administration.

Christopher Thornberg is an expert in the study of regional economies, real estate dynamics, labor markets and business forecasting. In 2006 he co-founded Beacon Economics, an economic research and consulting firm that specializes in real estate markets, local economic development, and public and private policy issues.

Dr. Thornberg has established a reputation as one of the state’s leading economic forecasters. In December 2007, he was appointed to California State Controller John Chiang’s Council of Economic Advisors – the body that advises the state’s chief fiscal officer about critical economic issues facing California. Dr. Thornberg also serves on the advisory board of Paulson & Co. Inc., one of Wall Street’s most successful hedge funds. He has been involved in a number of special studies measuring the effect of important events on the economy.

Joseph C. Magdziarz, MAI, SRA is the President Elect of the Appraisal Institute. Magdziarz has been an active member of the Appraisal Institute for 38 years. He has served in a variety of capacities at all levels of the organization.

At the regional level, Magdziarz has served two terms as Regional Vice Chair and two terms as Region III Chair. He has also been a regional representative for many years. On the national level, Magdziarz served two terms on the Appraisal Institute’s National Board of Directors. He has served as Chair of the Education Committee for five years and has also chaired the National Audit Committee, Instructor and Faculty Committees, and Education and Publications Committees. In addition, he has served on a number of project teams.

Mr. Phelan is President and CEO, charged with the day-to-day leadership of Pacific Southwest Realty Services mortgage operations. Pacific Southwest Realty Services is an investment firm focused on commercial real estate, representing and advising both real estate clients and institutional investors in debt and equity placement, strategic planning, property sales and loan administration. Pacific Southwest Realty Services brings competence and integrity to helping Investors and Owners meet their capital needs.

Mr. Phelan joined Pacific Southwest Realty Services in September 1973 after graduating with a B.S. from Creighton University and has been working in the mortgage banking industry ever since. He is both a Certified Mortgage Banker (CMB) and a Charter Realty Investor (CRI) and has been very active and has held various positions in the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), California Mortgage Bankers Association (CMBA), local building industry trade groups and the CRI Society Board.

Thomas L. Williams is a graduate of Penn State University (B.S. Animal Science) and the Certified Auctioneers Institute (CAI). Representing the third generation of Williams family auctioneers dating back to the mid-1800s, Williams is also a graduate of the historic Reppert School of Auctioneering. He has over 40 years experience in real estate auctions, land development and real estate investment. He currently serves as Immediate Past President of the National Auctioneers Association.

A founding partner of Williams & Williams, Williams served as president from 1986-2000, and became board chairman in 2001. He also co-founded and served as managing partner of Lowderman & Williams Auctioneers from 1965-85. He has conducted over 10,000 auctions in all 48 of the contiguous United States and Canada, and is an advisor to auctions conducted throughout Western Europe, South Africa, Australia and New Zealand.

Sean O’Toole is Founder & CEO of ForeclosureRadar.com, the only company that tracks every foreclosure in California with daily updates on all foreclosure auctions. Prior to ForeclosureRadar Sean spent 15 years building and launching software companies before entering the foreclosure business in 2002 where he has successfully bought and sold more than 150 foreclosure properties.

Sarah Letts is responsible for implementing Fannie Mae’s neighborhood stabilization strategies including pool sales of REO to government entities, land banks, and nonprofits. She joined Fannie Mae in 1999, and prior to her current position, she specialized in debt financing and equity investments for affordable housing. Before joining Fannie Mae, Sarah developed affordable housing on behalf of community development corporations in Los Angeles and Chicago. Sarah received bachelor’s degrees from Stanford University in economics and political science and a masters degree from UCLA’s graduate school of architecture and urban planning.

Thornberg was the next speaker for the event.

Thornberg begins by disagreeing with Bruce over his zero down program. He explains that FHA loans have been spiking over the last 10 years. Bruce asks, “What about the first 35 years?” Thornberg believes that the activity over the last 5 years is the most relevant, but Bruce believes it is the pricing structure that is most important.

Paul Romer from Stanford University once said, “A crisis is a terrible thing to waste.” Thornberg believes we have wasted our most recent crisis. We keep hearing how the consumer has taken over too much debt, but this is not the case. We learned in the Great Depression that banks should not be allowed to leverage up. Leveraging up turns a small problem into a huge one.

In 1960, of all private sector debt in the U.S., 10% was from the financial sector. In 2007, the financial sector represented 43% of outstanding private sector debt. Consumers didn’t really leverage that much.

We still haven’t really addressed the problem of leveraging. After Lehman Bros fell, they created TARP, and handed money to the organizations causing the problem.

Bruce has a hard time understanding how inflation emerges when it is difficult for wages to increase, and when it is difficult for businesses to ask for product increases. Because Bruce read a book given to him by Thornberg, he now understands that inflation actually drives both of those things. Inflation occurs when the quantity of money rises more rapidly than output. This is known as real GDP. The more rapid the rise in the quantity of money per unit of output, the greater the rate of inflation.

Bruce asks, “If Milton Freedman was looking at Japan’s growth of money over the last 20 years, haven’t they created a lot of money?” Thornberg replies, “no”. Economists agree that the problem with Japan’s central bank is that they have been unwilling to poor liquidity into the economy. Japan went through a period of quantitative easing. All their cash sat in banks as a form of excess reserves. Japan’s banks refused to let money leave their reserves, and so their money supply did not expand.

In Argentina, the government prints money and they spend it directly. That is automatically inflationary, because it is instantly being put into the economy.

Ben Bernanke was once known as “Helicopter Ben”, because he had an interesting proposition. If you quantitave ease with the banks, they may not lend it out. If they don’t lend it out, you can give the money to the government to spend, or you can fly around in helicopters and throw the money out in bags. Thornberg does not think that this is a bad idea. One might even argue that this is a better idea than giving the money to the banks or letting the government spend it.

Right now, we are going through a period of quantitative easing. Our government poured money into the banks, and most of it is sitting in the reserves. However, some of the money has gotten into the money supply. As a result, we are staying in the 1 to 2 percent growth range, which is not deflationary.

Thornberg believes price levels can be effectively controlled by policy, if you are willing to go far enough. Ben Bernanke has stood in front of congress, and has announced that he will go far enough. If he sees any hint of deflation, he will pour more money into the system. If he has to go up in a helicopter and throw it out, he will. Ben Bernanke has an incredible amount of control over the price level. The biggest potential problem is that if he fights it too dramatically, then he could set off inflation. At this point in time, Thornberg thinks Bernanke has done a great job with keeping things balanced. Inflation might be a little too low, but we haven’t gone into an unhealthy range of inflation or deflation.

If Bernanke had not poured trillions of dollars into the system, we may have gone into a deflationary situation. That would have lead to deeper problems inside the economy. Bruce worries that we may be mortgaging our future, but Thornberg is not concerned about this, so long as Bernanke is willing to pull the money out at the right time.

Thornberg is not concerned about what Bernanke is doing with the Fed’s cash, but he is concerned about the fiscal problems that may develop. Fiscal changes occur when congress chooses to spend $4 trillion, but only tax $2.7 trillion. In this case, they would have to borrow the extra $1.3 trillion from the rest of the world. That $1.3 trillion must be paid back. When Bernanke moves money around, he doesn’t cause any future liabilities, because he can withdraw that money.

When Bernanke chooses to withdraw that money, it will have a significant effect on the real estate business and the entire economy. Bruce owns a book named An Antique Book of Interest Rates, which was made in 1955. The lowest interest rate in the book is 4.5%. This is not as low as the rates we have right now. This is what Thornberg is most worried about right now. We are in a bond bubble.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

Thank you for being a Gold Sponsor for I Survived Real Estate 2010: Adrenaline Athletics, Benton Investment Group, Community RE-Invest Group, Delmae Properties, Elite Auctions, Entrust California, Everlast Photography, Inland Empire Investors Forum, Keystone CPA, Landwood Title, Las Brisas Escrow, Leivas Financial Services, Mike Cantu, North San Diego Real Estate Investors Association, Northern California Real Estate Investors Association, Personal Real Estate Investor Magazine, Realty 411 Magazine, San Jose Real Estate Investor Association, Rick and LeeAnne Rossiter, San Jose Real Estate Investor Association, Starz Photography, Summit Solutions, Tony Alvarez, Wealth Point, and Westin South Coast Plaza.

193-TNG Radio – I Survived Real Estate 2010 9-24-10

Friday, September 24th, 2010

I Survived Real Estate 2010

I Survived Real Estate 2010


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September 17th, 2010, The Norris Group returns with its award winning event I Survived Real Estate 2010. The video also now available on The Norris Group website.

The Norris Group has assembled an incredible line up of industry experts to discuss the state of REO from the inside. Topics will include regulatory intervention and aftermath, bulk buying, myths and facts, and opportunities emerging for real estate professionals. 100 percent of the proceeds support the Orange County affiliate of Susan G. Komen for the Cure. This event would not be possible without generous help from the following platinum partners: Foreclosure Radar and Sean O’Toole, the San Diego Creative Real Estate Investors Association and Bill Tan, Investors Workshops and Shawn Watkins and Angel Bronsgeest, Invest Club for Women and Iris Veneracion and Bobby Alexander, Claudia Buys Houses, The Business Press, Frye Wiles, MVT Productions, and White House Catering.

This week The Norris Group Real Estate Radio Show is broadcasting the first segment of I Survived Real Estate 2010.

This is our 3rd I Survived Real Estate event. Over the last few years we have covered the reasons for the meltdown, ever changing legislation, government stimulus, and possible industry solutions. That is part of the conversation for I Survived Real Estate 2010, but this year we are focusing on “the state of REO from a multi-sector viewpoint.” We are proud of the ensemble we have put together for this event. Thank you for listening online. We appreciate your support.

The benefactor for this event is Susan G. Komen. Susan G. Komen is the world’s largest grass roots network of breast cancer survivors and activists, which works to save lives, empower people, ensure quality care for all, and aid science in finding the cure. As of 2pm on September 23, 2010, our sponsors raised $63,000 for Susan G. Komen. That brings our 3 year total to over $160,000.

I Survived Real Estate 2010 would not be possible without out platinum sponsors, who allowed us to dedicate 100% of the ticket sales to Komen. Those sponsors include Foreclosure Radar and Sean O’Toole, San Diego Creative Investors Association and Bill Tan, The Investors Workshop, Shawn Watkins, Angel Bronsgeest, Frye Wiles, Invest Club for Women and Iris Veneracion, Bobi Alexander, The Business Press, MVT Productions, San Jose Real Estate Investors Association and Geraldine Barry, Claudia Buy’s Houses, White House Catering, and The Nixon Library. Thank you as well to all our gold sponsors. Their information can be found on www.isurvived2010.com. We are grateful to all who have participated.

We would like to thank two heroes. First, we would like to thank Marsha Norris. Her 17 year fight with cancer has been nothing less than spectacular. Its not just about strength, but its also about attitude. “Surviving is important, but thriving is elegant.” Second, we would like to thank Bruce Norris. Thank you for giving us an incredible example of what it means to be a great partner through thick and thin, and through better or worse. You show incredible grace when under fire.

Our host for this evening is Bruce Norris. He has been in real estate for almost 30 years as a builder, money partner, and investor. He has over 2,000 transactions under his belt. He is most known for his market timing predictions and his research.

This event would never have occurred if Aaron Norris had not developed our radio show. When Aaron originally told Bruce that The Norris Group should have its own radio show, Bruce asked, “Why in the world would we do a radio show?” Aaron responded saying, “I think it would be a great service to our industry.” It has been on of the best things Bruce has ever done in his life. Every week Bruce is challenged to interview someone who is an expert in their field. He has to read and work a lot to prepare for those interviews. We now have the opportunity to put a panel of those interviewees in front of you, and discuss solutions for our industry. Two of the panelists gave Bruce home work assignments. He bought those books and did his homework, so we will be discussing some of the issues in those books. Christopher Thornberg is back. When Bruce recalled memories of last year’s event with Thornberg, he decided to buy head gear just in case Thornberg’s speech gets rough again.

Bruce wants to be able to share good ideas for good questions during this event. Bruce has been a part of panels in which he did not feel like anything was accomplished, because no one was willing to cross a line or two. With this group of panelists, we may need more than one set of head gear. One of the hardest things for Bruce to do is disagree with a conclusion that is probably correct but not understood. Tonight, Bruce is going to do that. Bruce is going to be asking questions about issues that he does not fully understand.

Are we going to inflate or deflate? That is a very important question, because investors do something very different if they expect one or the other. Thornberg and Bruce will be discussing that issue. Thornberg gave Bruce a book to read, but Bruce still doesn’t agree with him. This event is about getting answers to important questions for real estate investors. Bruce would like to develop his business plan for the next few years based on what is said during this event.

Bruce would like to thank his company for the hard work they put into preparing this event. Aaron and Diana did as much work for this event as most people do for a wedding. Bruce gets to show and get a standing ovation because of their work. It doesn’t get any better than that.

Bruce and Marsha recently moved after living in the same home for 25 years. One of the first problems that came up during the move was what to do with the wheat? For those who have not heard that story, Bruce would like to tell it again. In 1975, Bruce got married and bought his first house. During that time, he read a book called The Coming Bad Years. The book claimed that if you are concerned for your financial future, then you need to buy 200 pounds of wheat per person in your family, so that you will have food to make it through the coming rough times. Bruce only had 4 people in his family at that time, but he bought 1,000 pounds to make sure he had plenty. So 35 years later, Bruce had to decide what to do with what is left of the wheat. He sill has a bucket of about 5 pounds of wheat, and he doesn’t want to give it up, because that wheat taught him something. First of all, it taught him that wheat lasts a long time. The second lesson was that when you get input from somebody else, listen to them, but don’t just let their input determine your opinion on the issue. Your informer may not be right. Bruce managed to build a house in a very nice neighborhood during a time in which he falsely expected a depression.

We have an important year coming up. We’ve experienced the great recession of real estate, and we are now in its aftermath. Just 24 months ago, Lehman Bros failed and set off catastrophic losses on Wall Street. Just like the wheat example, we now have groups of people overreacting. Policy changes are about to be made that could have very negative outcomes. The title for a recent article in the Los Angeles Times read, “Rethinking Homeownership: Why Owning A Home May No Longer Make Economic Sense”. That is not the mentality we want to have as a country. The little house purchase that Bruce started with was a “subject to” deal before Bruce knew what a “subject to” deal was. He bought the home with 500 dollars down, and he probably couldn’t have qualified for the financing on his own. Many good things happened in his life because he bought that property.

In the article titled “Rethinking Homeownership: Why Owning A Home May No Longer Make Economic Sense”, the author claimed we should take all tax benefits away from real estate. The article said, “there is only one affect that seems consistently caused by homeownership. Owners invest more time and money in the physical upkeep of their homes. They are more likely to make repairs and guard it.” Isn’t that called pride of ownership?

Tommy Williams once said that whenever he auctions off a house, that house stops being loved by somebody. An auction finds somebody that will love it next. We all want to live in a neighborhood that is well kept. Society is better off when the majority of us have a chance to own a house.

Some people are in positions were they can make policies. Raphael Bostic is the Secretary for Policy Development and Research for HUD. This is a statement from HUD: “There is this notion that being housed well is synonymous with being a home owner. That narrative has got to change.” That is an interesting statement coming from people who provide a lot of houses. The Chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation said, “Clearly there is a strong correlation between the amount of skin in the game a borrower puts up front and how that loan performs. Its only common sense. If you put 20 percent down, you are committed to that house. If you walk away from that house, you are going to lose a lot of money.” Her solution would be to go to a 20 percent mortgage, but Bruce does not feel that is necessary.

In the mailing business, there is something called a control piece. A control piece is something that gets a known result when used. People in advertising use control pieces all the time. They send mailers designed to get a specific response repetitively. If they want to change something, they do the changes one at a time. If the change improves their control piece, then they add the changes to their mix.

We already have a control piece that has worked for 40 years. This control piece is called low down payment purchases. We have statistics showing that the damages caused by low down payment purchases have not been consistent over the past few years. Giving someone a VA loan with no down payment does not cause society big losses. Look at 1970 through 2002. During that time, we had FHA loans with only 3% down, but we did not have many foreclosures. Foreclosures were between 5 to 10% during that time. Foreclosures did not significantly increase until after 2003. The low down payment deals did not cause the problem. The subprime, low qualification, and option-ARM deals that caused the problems. We already know what works. We don’t need to reinvent our control piece, and we don’t have to practice over kill.

From 1975 to 2005, you did not have significant price decreases. If low down payment programs were causing the problem, why don’t the statistics show it? Bruce thinks that changing the low down payment policy would be a big mistake. Right now, a decline of ownership is occurring, and that is probably healthy. If the Chairman of the FDIC has her proposition in place, then homeownership will probably dip below 60%. Sellers are not netting very much when they sell properties. It would be difficult to crank up 20% from this price.

If we get rid of low down payment programs, you will have a lot more vacant properties. There is not enough financing for investors to absorb this inventory. You will have less stable housing costs for people who don’t own. When you buy a home, it can be rough at first, but once you’ve owned for a few years, you adjust to the cost, and it becomes easy. If we have more vacant homes, then we will also have lower quality neighborhoods with more unkempt houses. We will also have less equity to access other investments with.

Right now, Bruce believes that a zero down payment program would work perfectly. Warren Buffet believes that when other people are greedy, you should be fearful. If he had been in the loan business during 2006, he would have gotten out. In 2010, he would probably suggest making a lot of loans, because the payment on these loans is probably less than rent. If you are ever going to take a risk, you should take it in 2010 and 2011, because interest rates are at all time lows. Right now, people between the ages of 20 to 30 are underserved in the mortgage industry. Under Bruce’s proposed program, people would still have to qualify, but they wouldn’t need a down payment. Some people think this is crazy, but if you think about it, we’ve already done this for people with the $8,000 tax credit. We were giving homebuyers tax credits, so that they could make an $8,000 down payment. 48 percent of the 2 million people who received the tax credits will have to pay the $8,000 back.

People over the age of 35 have a homeownership rate of over 60 percent. People from the ages of 20 to 30 are underserved, and they probably did not receive the credit damage that many of their elders received from losing their houses. What is wrong with giving these younger adults a shot at homeownership? You must have 2 different criteria for Bruce’s no down payment program in order to prevent foreclosures. The reason why this program will work is because it is set up to serve 3 borrowers simultaneously. Yes, you are going to have a failure rate with a no-down mortgage, but you pick the percentage. When your payment is less than rent, is it going to be 20 percent? Bruce doubts it. But for the sake of argument, let’s say that foreclosure rates are at 20 percent under this program. If 2 million people sign up for the no-down program, and 400,000 people walk away, then let that loan get assumed by the next buyer without qualification. The likely target buyer will be the person who lost their house in foreclosure during the past 3 years. They can’t get new credit, but they might want to return to those “pride of ownership” homes. They will write a check, and save the system from 1 more foreclosure.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

Thank you for being a Gold Sponsor for I Survived Real Estate 2010: Adrenaline Athletics, Benton Investment Group, Community RE-Invest Group, Delmae Properties, Elite Auctions, Entrust California, Everlast Photography, Inland Empire Investors Forum, Keystone CPA, Landwood Title, Las Brisas Escrow, Leivas Financial Services, Mike Cantu, North San Diego Real Estate Investors Association, Northern California Real Estate Investors Association, Personal Real Estate Investor Magazine, Realty 411 Magazine, San Jose Real Estate Investor Association, Rick and LeeAnne Rossiter, San Jose Real Estate Investor Association, Starz Photography, Summit Solutions, Tony Alvarez, Wealth Point, and Westin South Coast Plaza.

56-TNG Radio – Gary Watts 2-23-08

Friday, February 22nd, 2008

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Gary Watts

Real Estate Economist

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Bruce Norris is joined this week by economist Gary Watts. Bruce and Gary discuss Gary’s long history of forecasting in California, what surprised him in 2007, how the financing industry put the breaks on the low and high end inventory in California, psychology playing a role in the California real estate market, how this cycle was different from previous cycles, renting versus buying in the mind of a buyer, how much of the loan pool is subprime, how much of the subprime is really a problem, collateralized debt and the mess it has created, FHA and VA loans, how the new loan limits for FHA will hopefully help, how the change might hurt the median price, pent-up demand in certain parts of California, who make up these new buyers, the FED and the solutions they’ve tried to implement, how freezing the subprime might help or hurt the market, foreign markets and lending practices, which foreign country buys the most real estate in the United States, foreigners betting on a short-term weak dollar and a good potential for a rebound, and how the election could effect real estate.

Gary Watts has long been recognized as a forecasting expert by the real estate industry. His long-term analysis has also drawn the attention of the media due to his consistent accuracy. His Economic Outlook has been spotlighted in regional newspapers, including the Orange County Register and the Los Angeles Times. He has been seen on the PBS TV program Real Orange, he has been heard on the radio at KNX Money Talk and was featured in Fortune magazine. He holds a degree in economics with advanced studies in psychology from California State University at Sacramento. Gary’s economic forecast and lecture notes are among the information pieces most widely circulated by real estate agents in Orange County. Gary’s last speaking season drew over 17,000 real estate agents. His talks are also available in DVD and an English or Spanish CD format