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This week Bruce is joined again by Leslie Appleton-Young. She is the Vice President and Chief Economist for the California Association of Realtors; a statewide trade organization with over 165,000 members. Leslie directs the activities of the association’s member information groups, she oversees the analysis of housing markets and broker industry trends, member communications and member development activities. She is well known as a speaker in the California real estate community.
UCLA’s business school has projected that California’s unemployment will remain in the double digits until 2013. This does not surprise Leslie. We are experiencing cyclical job losses, because there are few sectors that have not been impacted. To some extent, our problem is structural. Sending jobs over seas to lower wage countries has been occurring for a long time.
During the downturn of the 90s, there were job losses concentrated in California due to a loss of migration. Leslie does not believe this is our main problem though. Our biggest issues are coming from the restructuring of corporations and businesses. 70% of costs are directly tied to labor, so the easiest way to become more efficient is to use fewer workers.
Leslie is uncertain of the impact that gas prices will have on real estate. Gas affects real estate because it impacts the overall economy. High prices means there will be less discretionary income available for purchasing. The cost of gas also impacts the ability of people to move further out. The UCLA forecast assumed there would be no significant long term reductions in gas supply, and that we would be able to weather the increases, but we do not know that.
Affordability is close to an all time high. The gap between California’s affordability and the U.S.’s affordability is much closer now as well. The California median home price peaked at $594,000, and the U.S. peaked at $230,000, so we were still over twice as expensive. California’s current median is $300,000, and the U.S. median is $170,000, so there is still a big gap between the two.
Bruce believes this all time low for housing affordability is going to give us a boost in migration. The challenge will be to provide job opportunities for the migration.
In a county like Riverside, where it is common to develop 250 to 300 subdivisions every year, there is going to be a huge increase in demand. The inventory that has been bought from lower priced years will be able to increase in value. Bruce notes that Riverside has only developed 10 subdivisions this year.
There has been a significant increase in household size over the last couple years, because families have been moving in with each other to weather the bad economy. Many people who chose to move in with their family will be looking to move once the economy improves, and that will create demand.
In another five years, Leslie believes down payment requirements and interest rates will be significantly higher. Getting rid of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will affect us for many years. The private sector will be demanding higher risk premiums to originate.
A number of surveys from Fannie Mae and others show that many people still aspire to own a home. Leslie does not believe this will change. However, financing will become a bigger burden. Leslie does not believe 30 year mortgages will be very popular in the future. Bruce believes that we must be heading towards a lower percentage of home ownership.
In business, when you have an advertising campaign that you know will work, that is called a control piece. The only way you change that control piece is by changing one thing at a time to see if something emerges as better or worse. We had a control piece called a zero down VA loan. This program produced less than 1% foreclosures, and FHA did the same thing for a long time. Unfortunately, we changed everything about how we performed loans within 5 years, and we got a bad result. Bruce does not understand why we won’t go back to the way things were before.
In 2005, the GSE delinquency rate was 7.8%, and the private label delinquency rate was 28.6%. In 2006, GSEs had a delinquency rate of 23.3%, and the private label delinquency rate was 45.1%. For loans originated in 2007, the GSE rate was 14.9%, and the private label rate was 42%. This information must have been overlooked by the people discussing what to do with our financial system in the future. Fannie and Freddie worked until 2005 and 2006 when then decided to get into the subprime and Alt-A market. Bruce is not sure if our sufferings would have been eased much had Fannie and Freddie not gotten involved in subprime lending. If they had not touched subprime, there still would have been a large amount of inventory being overpriced because of the easy financing available at that time. What we did wrong was pretend that it was okay to loan people money based on a stated income and without a down payment.
39% of defaults between 2006 and 2008 were due to home equity borrowing. Leslie does not believe it is healthy for people, as well as the real estate market, to borrow in such a way that they owe more on their home after a year of ownership. Bruce does not totally agree with that, because in the past that behavior was not as simple. Leslie believes it is bad for people to leave themselves no cushion. Bruce agrees with this statement.
In 1934, FHA did 80% LTV loans with 20 year terms. Gradually we went to 30 year terms, and the down payment requirements went to 10, to 5, to even 3%.
Bruce is concerned that if we lower loan limits, it will cause a significant price drop, and then you will have a continuous negative equity position. Bruce and Leslie hopes the government does not restrict the market too much in this manner. Leslie has noticed that the government’s decisions tend to be imbalanced.
When Bruce bought his first home and mowed the grass for the first time, it made him feel like a man. Being an owner changed the way he felt about himself. It is a big deal, and it is one of the big reasons for why people come to California.
Bruce was very frustrated when the president of MERS was questioned in front of the senate, because not one of the senators read his deposition. If you are going to make a huge decision against a very influential company like MERS, why not take an hour to try and understand the problem?
CAR’s website is www.car.org
For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.