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California Real Estate Headline Roundup

Posts Tagged ‘Tommy Williams’

144-TNG Radio – I Survived Real Estate 2009 10-17-09

Friday, October 16th, 2009

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I Survived Real Estate 2009

Fundraiser for the Orange County Affiliate for Susan G. Komen for the Cure

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This week The Norris Group Real Estate Radio Show and Podcast presents Part 5 of I Survived Real Estate 2009.

The next speaker for I Survived Real Estate 2009 was Joseph Magdziarz. He is the 2009 Vice President of the Appraisal Institute, and will become president of the Appraisal Institute in 2011. He has been an active member of the Appraisal Institute for 38 years.

The Appraisal Institute is the largest professional appraisal group in the world with 26,000 members. Last year, the Appraisal Institute had 3,900 new members.

The market conditions today are difficult to figure out. When there are complex issues going on, we need to have experts dealing with them, but we are not getting experts to deal with these issues. The reason why this is happening is because the appraisal management companies want reports within a few hours and they pay very little. The best appraisers are starting to leave the industry because of this.

The HVCC expires in July of next year, and people are not happy with it. Moratoriums are not going to help anything. We need long term solutions.

There are 10 large appraisal management companies in the country. Those companies are advertising jobs to people who can do appraisal jobs quickly and cheaply, so people are taking these jobs in areas that they are not familiar with. This is harming consumers, and it harms everyone in the industry. The government is trying to pass a bill which will regulate management companies, so that they work on a state by state basis, and the appraisal management companies do not like that. If this bill passes, perhaps appraisal management companies will start looking for people of quality to do these jobs. Right now, consumers are paying more from lower quality work, and that is wrong. Perhaps if we present this problem as something that is hurting consumers then we can get this problem fixed, because nobody cares about appraisers, Realtors, and mortgage bankers.

One of the problems with current appraisal standards is that appraisers are using distressed sales as comparable sales. Distressed sales do not meet the definition of market value. If you were to use them, you would have to make significant upward adjustments.

People who are not a member of the Appraisal Institute are 7 to 20 times more likely to have complaints filed against them. Joseph hopes to make appraisals more competent by increasing education. Joseph asks that if anyone has an appraiser who is doing work outside of their comfort zone then they need to file a report with the Appraisal Institute. Anyone who does work outside of there are of competency needs to be reported.

Joseph supports the original HVCC because appraisers need to have pressure taken off of them, so that they can make accurate appraisals. Before, some appraisers were pressured to inflate appraisals.

A lot of the Appraisal Institute’s members had relationships with lenders, and they could talk to the lenders when they had problems. They were not being influenced to do unethical things. Right now appraisers have to register with the state, but they do not need a license. Appraisal fraud is beginning to increase again.

People are being discouraged from filing complaints against appraisers. Mortgage lenders do not want to get involved, but they need to. They need to file complaints with the state, because appraisers must have licenses, and file with the Appraisal Institute if the appraiser is a member.

Appraisers were not reporting listing histories or concessions in the past and that can cause over valuing. Also, not knowing those things can cause under valuing issues. If you do not talk with sellers about what caused them to sell, you can come up with a bad appraisal.

Under HVCC, lenders are responsible for paying the appraiser. Brokers are getting bad appraisers because they are not allowed to pick their appraiser. You should have the right to ask for a competent appraiser. If you are not given a competent appraiser, report the appraiser, report the bank, and report the appraisal management company. Ask your appraiser how long they have been in business and if they belong to a professional group. Fannie and Freddie agree that you should look for appraisers that belong to professional associations, because those appraisers have people observing their activity. Professional associations have more strict ethics than the state requirements.

If you have trouble understanding what a comparable sale is, think like this: “If I can’t buy this property that I’m looking at, what other property would I buy first?” That mentality will give you a good idea as to what a comparable sale is. This requires a competent person who can account for repairs that have been done on a house in a neighborhood full of foreclosures. If a repaired house is being compared to a neighborhood full of foreclosures then an upward adjustment must be made on the appraisal. Joseph thinks that many of the problems that we currently have can be blamed on congress, and their lack of enforcement.

The next speaker on I Survived Real Estate 2009 was David Kittle. David began his mortgage banking career in 1978, and is currently vice president of Vision Mortgage Capital. He has served as a past chairman of MBA’s political action committee, board of governors, and he has served on the board of directors since 2004. David Kittle’s mother-in-law is a 21 year breast cancer survivor.

David Kittle has been privileged to represent 3,000 member companies, and over 400,000 individuals that are members of MBA. During the last year and a half, David has spoken in front of congress 14 years. David’s favorite testimony was on November 19, 2008. Senator Whitehouse came out first and screamed at people saying, “Why can’t you modify these loans?” One of the other people there claimed that David was responsible for the entire collapse of the world economy. Last time the bankruptcy laws were changed was 1978. When David got in the business, he could get you an investment loan or a second home loan under the same terms as an owner occupant loan. People at this testimony called David a scrooge, because people were getting kicked out of their homes. David was taught not to talk back to a senator, but he fired back. He said, “Excuse me, Senator. I haven’t drawn a paycheck in 14 months. I’ve layed off 90 percent of my staff, because I can’t afford them. Don’t tell me I don’t know what these people are feeling. I was smart enough to put money away, I protected my credit scores, and I’m making my payments on time.” The senator that was accusing him sat back in his chair and apologized. 95 percent of David’s members are individual business owners who take risk every day. Senators could care less about David’s industry. They care about getting reelected.

MBA has a mortgage action alliance that is free for anyone who wants to make a difference in the mortgage industry. It is free and you do not have to be a member of the MBA. Got to MBA.org, give them your name, email address, and the names of your family. MBA will write your letter to congress, and they will send it to you, so that you may personally send it to congress. If you do not like the letter then you can edit it. A senator may not pay attention to 100 phone calls, but they will pay attention to 15,000 emails. Your opinion does matter.

People sometimes ask mortgage bankers, “Why can’t you modify more loans?” Mortgage bankers cannot modify loans, because borrowers will not call back. When people do ask for modification, they are already 90 days down the road. When bankers modify the loan, they have to retake the loan application, they have to verify assets, and they have to make sure that their borrowers have jobs. Then they have to run a title. The longer those go out, the more taxes are placed against their property.

David predicts that next year there will be a larger wave of foreclosures. All the brokers got FHA approved, and all the loans that were subprime are being placed under FHA. The government is going to have to bail out FHA next. David thinks that the net worth requirements should be higher, and education and licensing requirements need to be higher.

The video of the live event is not being aired online HERE.

You can visit isurvived2009.com to learn more about our sponsors and speakers.

Here are the speakers involved in the event:

Bruce Norris of the Norris Group

Bruce Norris

President

The Norris Group

David Kittle, President of the Mortgage Bankers Association

David Kittle

2009 Chairman

Mortgage Bankers Association

2007 President, National Association of Realtors

Pat Vredevoogd Combs

2007 President

National Association of Realtors

Tommy Williams, 2008 President National Auctioneers Association

Tommy Williams

2008 President

National Auctioneers Association

Christopher Thornberg, Principal and Beacon Economics

Christopher Thornberg

Principal

Beacon Economics

 

John Young

Vice President

California Builders Industry Association

Joseph Magdziarz, VP Appraisal Institute

Joseph Magdziarz

Vice President

Appraisal Institute

Rick Sharga, Senior VP RealtyTrac

Rick Sharga

Senior Vice President

RealtyTrac

To Benefit:

I Survived Real Estate 2009 Sponsors

A huge thank you to all of our sponsors who made this event possible.

Platinum Sponsors

San Diego Creative Investors Association
investClub for Women
Investors Workshop
Frye / Wiles - Web Design in Southern California

Entrust California
MVT Productions - Audio and Video
JK Short Sale
The Business Press
White House Catering
 
National Fix and Flip Network
 

Gold Sponsors

1 m 1 Properties
Appraisal Institute of Southern California
Dalmae
Thank you Elite Auctions for being Gold Sponsors!
Inland Empire Investors Forum
Las Brisas Escrow
Los Angeles Meeting and Event Center
Mortgage Equity Group
Northern California Real Estate Investors Association
Northern San Diego Real Estate Investors Association
Real Wealth Network
RE 411 Magazine
San Jose Real Estate Investors Association
Daniel Dear
Women\'s Council of Realtors - Inland Valley Chapter
Westin South Coast Plaza
Saddleback Valley Communities Petere Apostolos Awesome Limousines
RealtyTrac National Association of Real Estate Investors Far Below Market

143-TNG Radio – I Survived Real Estate 2009 10-10-09

Friday, October 9th, 2009

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I Survived Real Estate 2009

Fundraiser for the Orange County Affiliate for Susan G. Komen for the Cure

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This week The Norris Group Real Estate Radio Show and Podcast presents Part 4 of I Survived Real Estate 2009.

This week The Norris Group Real Estate Radio Show presents Tommy Williams segment on I Survived Real Estate 2009. Tommy has over 40 years experience in real estate auctions, land development, and real estate investments. He is the founding partner of Williams and Williams Auctions, and he is the immediate past president of the National Auctioneers’ Association. He has conducted over 10,000 auctions in 48 states, and has even auctioned for Bruce Norris.

We have two economic systems that are flourishing in the world. One is the China system, which is completely government controlled; all individuals and businesses operate on the government’s direction. We once had the exact opposite of that. The U.S. has risen to the place that it is at because it has always placed the individual as number one. It has always placed private business as number one with government interference.

In Tommy’s opinion, when government interferes with the free enterprise system that the U.S. has we develop a bad problem. Every stock sold today, throughout the world, is sold using an open auction. We can speculate about what the real estate market will be like in the future, but if we are going to help real estate recover we need to get the market to reach the price that buyers think that real estate is worth.

There are two ways that real estate comes onto the market. One way is when a property becomes a liability to the owner. Whenever real estate comes into market because of this reason, it needs to be sold in an auction as soon as possible, by a professional auction company. Realtors need to do everything they can to educated buyers on what they need to know for real estate auctions. Auction companies will want to sell properties for as much as possible, and buyers want properties for as cheap as possible.

When a property is sold, families move into them and repair them, and when those homes are repaired the property value of every home in that neighborhood increases. This is the only way the real estate market will recover.

Tomorrow Chrysler will fluctuate based on what Chrysler is worth. Unfortunately, the government is wanting to interfere with what Chrysler is worth. Tommy was told multiple times that if TWA closed down then we would not be able to fly to many places in America, and that it would be the end of American air travel as we know it. It did eventually close down, but a variety of other airline carriers came out of it, and now the air transportation industry is in better shape than it was before. If we let capitalism flourish, it will dig us out of this real estate downturn based on fair market value.

The next speaker for I Survived Real Estate 2009 was Joseph Magdziarz. He is the 2009 vice president of the Appraisal Institute, and will become president of the Appraisal Institute in 2011. He has been an active member of the Appraisal Institute for 38 years.

The Appraisal Institute is the largest professional appraisal group in the world with 26,000 members. Last year, the Appraisal Institute had 3,900 new members.

The market conditions today are difficult to figure out. When there are complex issues going on, we need to have experts dealing with them, but we are not getting experts to deal with these issues. The reason why this is happening is because the appraisal management companies want reports within a few hours and they pay very little. The best appraisers are starting to leave the industry because of this.

The HVCC expires in July of next year, and people are not happy with it. Moratoriums are not going to help anything. We need long term solutions.

There are 10 large appraisal management companies in the country. Those companies are advertising jobs to people who can do appraisal jobs quickly and cheaply, so people are taking these jobs in areas that they are not familiar with. This is harming consumers, and it harms everyone in the industry. The government is trying to pass a bill which will regulate management companies, so that they work on a state by state basis, and the appraisal management companies do not like that. If this bill passes, perhaps appraisal management companies will start looking for people of quality to do these jobs. Right now, consumers are paying more from lower quality work, and that is wrong. Perhaps if we present this problem as something that is hurting consumers then we can get this problem fixed, because nobody cares about appraisers, realtors, and mortgage bankers.

One of the problems with current appraisal standards is that appraisers are using distressed sales as comparable sales. Distressed sales do not meet the definition of market value. If you were to use them, you would have to make significant upward adjustments.

People who are not a member of the Appraisal Institute are 7 to 20 times more likely to have complaints filed against them. Joseph hopes to make appraisals more competent by increasing education. Joseph asks that if anyone has an appraiser who is doing work outside of their comfort zone then they need to file a report with the Appraisal Institute. Anyone who does work outside of there are of competency needs to be reported.

Joseph supports the original HVCC because appraisers need to have pressure taken off of them, so that they can make accurate appraisals. Before, some appraisers were pressured to inflate appraisals.

A lot of the Appraisal Institute’s members had relationships with lenders, and they could talk to the lenders when they had problems. They were not being influenced to do unethical things. Right now appraisers have to register with the state, but they do not need a license. Appraisal fraud is beginning to increase again.

The video of the live event is not being aired online HERE.

The Susan G. Komen “Walk for the Cure” is this Sunday, September 27th at Newport Beach. Donations both small and large are appreciated. You can visit isurvived2009.com to learn how you can still get involved.

Here are the speakers involved in the event:

Bruce Norris of the Norris Group

Bruce Norris

President

The Norris Group

David Kittle, President of the Mortgage Bankers Association

David Kittle

2009 Chairman

Mortgage Bankers Association

2007 President, National Association of Realtors

Pat Vredevoogd Combs

2007 President

National Association of Realtors

Tommy Williams, 2008 President National Auctioneers Association

Tommy Williams

2008 President

National Auctioneers Association

Christopher Thornberg, Principal and Beacon Economics

Christopher Thornberg

Principal

Beacon Economics

 

John Young

Vice President

California Builders Industry Association

Joseph Magdziarz, VP Appraisal Institute

Joseph Magdziarz

Vice President

Appraisal Institute

Rick Sharga, Senior VP RealtyTrac

Rick Sharga

Senior Vice President

RealtyTrac

To Benefit:

I Survived Real Estate 2009 Sponsors

A huge thank you to all of our sponsors who made this event possible.

Platinum Sponsors

San Diego Creative Investors Association
investClub for Women
Investors Workshop
Frye / Wiles - Web Design in Southern California

Entrust California
MVT Productions - Audio and Video
JK Short Sale
The Business Press
White House Catering
 
National Fix and Flip Network
 

Gold Sponsors

1 m 1 Properties
Appraisal Institute of Southern California
Dalmae
Thank you Elite Auctions for being Gold Sponsors!
Inland Empire Investors Forum
Las Brisas Escrow
Los Angeles Meeting and Event Center
Mortgage Equity Group
Northern California Real Estate Investors Association
Northern San Diego Real Estate Investors Association
Real Wealth Network
RE 411 Magazine
San Jose Real Estate Investors Association
Daniel Dear
Women\'s Council of Realtors - Inland Valley Chapter
Westin South Coast Plaza
Saddleback Valley Communities Petere Apostolos Awesome Limousines
RealtyTrac National Association of Real Estate Investors Far Below Market

142-TNG Radio – I Survived Real Estate 2009 10-3-09

Friday, October 2nd, 2009

final_isurvived2009

I Survived Real Estate 2009

Fundraiser for the Orange County Affiliate for Susan G. Komen for the Cure

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itunes

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This week The Norris Group Real Estate Radio Show and Podcast presents Part 3 of I Survived Real Estate 2009.

This week starts with a continuation of  John Young’s segment. He is the founding partner of Young Homes which is located in Rancho Cucamonga, and he is the Vice President of the California Building Industry Association (CBIA). He has been associated with the real estate business for 30 years.

Many home builders have had to reduce staff in this down turn. John Young has always worked in the first time home buyers industry. His business has picked up because these people can get FHA loans, they have good FICA scores, they have a job, and they have decent credit. There are buyers who couldn’t buy a few years ago who can buy today. In the Inland Empire, prices are still going down because of the large volume that is in those markets.

The California Builders Industry Association (CBIA) is working with the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) to address the inappropriate appraisal practices, and also the acquisition, development, and construction lending crisis that is damaging home builders. Additional credit resources could help home builders greatly.

The inappropriate use of distressed and foreclosed sales in determining new home values is driving down home prices and stalling an economic recovery. NAHB has found that twenty-six percent of builders are losing sales because the appraisals are continuously going below the contract sale price. These appraisal practices are contributing to the credit crisis. Falling appraised home values have lead some financial institutions to stop lending to home builders.

The CBIA and NAHB are calling on government regulators to develop clear and concise regulatory guidelines, which will allow appraisers to develop realistic expectations by accurately comparing homes. CBIA and NAHB supports ideas to help resolve issues pertaining to expiring subdivision maps, reducing unsold inventory, and extending the first time buyer tax credit.

New home builders are now focusing on building on smaller lots with less square footage. They are trying to control the amount of standing inventory, and they are controlling costs and demand less waste. Most private home builders have survived because they had some left over cash from the good times.

Young Homes anticipates that this market will stabilize in two years. John admits that home builders are by nature very optimistic, and that sometimes gets them in trouble.

The next speaker on the show is Pat V. Combs. She is a Realtor with Coldwell Banker. She has worked as a Realtor for 35 years, and she was the 2007 President of the National Association of Realtors.

All real estate is local. Pat can give you a national report, but that is about as accurate as a national weather report. The nation has witnessed 4 straight months of rising existing home sales. The national inventory has decreased from a year ago. These statistics show that recovery is occurring on a broad scale, but not necessarily a regional scale.

The federal tax credit has encouraged 350,000 first time home buyers, around the nation, to buy a home. Pat has been encouraging her children without homes to buy houses right now. Pat has noticed, in Michigan, a lot of entry level buyers getting into the home business. She is not encouraging everyone to buy a house, but anyone who has been “sitting on the fence”, who can qualify for a mortgage, should buy.

When Pat holds open houses, around 5 to 10 people come. Of those 5 to 10 people, 75 percent of them have houses to sell.

Pat expects the total impact of the home buyer tax credit to be somewhere between 300,000 and 650,000 additional home sales in 2009. When you consider that each home sale generates roughly 62,000 dollars in economic activity, that means that around $18.6 to $40 billion dollars are being pumped through the national and local economies.

Cash for Clunkers injected roughly $20 million into the economy. Realtors and home builders are encouraging the tax credit to be extended through 2010, and hopefully the credit will be extended to all home buyers, not just first time buyers.

There is some concern that another wave of foreclosures is going to hit the market place. Pat hopes that the other panelists will be able to give us some options for helping with those foreclosures. We need to resolve problems that have come up because of the new appraisal rules. Realtors are concerned by the out of town appraisers being used, and because of the higher costs that consumers must now pay, and because of the loss of transactions that home sellers and buyers are experiencing because of the appraisal problems. NAR has met with New York attorneys to discuss these problems, but little effort has been made to make changes.

Realtors continue to complain that good credit is not available to good buyers. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are still needed because we need to make the increased loan limits permanent. The current limit is capped at $729.750, and this higher limit will expire on December 31, 2009. It is important for people in high costs states to keep these loan limits high.

Two years ago, FHA was used less than 3 percent of the time. Today, FHA is used over 36 percent of the time. NAR submitted a testimony to the House Financial Services Committee expressing support for increased FHA staffing, and for increased resources to meet rising demand.

President Obama’s proposed Consumer Financial Protection Agency offers the potential to protect consumers from fraud and other deceptive practices, but experts in the real estate industry need to work with Congress to make sure that such an agency supports efficient and effect markets, while protecting consumers at the same time.

Realtors are discovering a new way to do business through the internet, social media, and new applications to methods used in the past. The old mantra “location, location, location” is being pushed into “price, location, price”. Our market places are becoming global. Tweets on new listings are sometimes being answered from China.

The next speaker was Tommy Williams. Tommy has over 40 years experience in real estate auctions, land development, and real estate investments. He is the founding partner of Williams and Williams Auctions, and he is the immediate past president of the National Auctioneers’ Association. He has conducted over 10,000 auctions in 48 states, and has even auctioned for Bruce Norris.

We have two economic systems that are flourishing in the world. One is the China system, which is completely government controlled; all individuals and businesses operate on the government’s direction. We once had the exact opposite of that. The U.S. has risen to the place that it is at, because it has always placed the individual as number one. It has always placed private business as number one with government interference.

The video of the live event is not being aired online HERE.

The Susan G. Komen “Walk for the Cure” is this Sunday, September 27th at Newport Beach. Donations both small and large are appreciated. You can visit isurvived2009.com to learn how you can still get involved.

Here are the speakers involved in the event:

Bruce Norris of the Norris Group

Bruce Norris

President

The Norris Group

David Kittle, President of the Mortgage Bankers Association

David Kittle

2009 Chairman

Mortgage Bankers Association

2007 President, National Association of Realtors

Pat Vredevoogd Combs

2007 President

National Association of Realtors

Tommy Williams, 2008 President National Auctioneers Association

Tommy Williams

2008 President

National Auctioneers Association

Christopher Thornberg, Principal and Beacon Economics

Christopher Thornberg

Principal

Beacon Economics

 

John Young

Vice President

California Builders Industry Association

Joseph Magdziarz, VP Appraisal Institute

Joseph Magdziarz

Vice President

Appraisal Institute

Rick Sharga, Senior VP RealtyTrac

Rick Sharga

Senior Vice President

RealtyTrac

To Benefit:

I Survived Real Estate 2009 Sponsors

A huge thank you to all of our sponsors who made this event possible.

Platinum Sponsors

San Diego Creative Investors Association
investClub for Women
Investors Workshop
Frye / Wiles - Web Design in Southern California

Entrust California
MVT Productions - Audio and Video
JK Short Sale
The Business Press
White House Catering
 
National Fix and Flip Network
 

Gold Sponsors

1 m 1 Properties
Appraisal Institute of Southern California
Dalmae
Thank you Elite Auctions for being Gold Sponsors!
Inland Empire Investors Forum
Las Brisas Escrow
Los Angeles Meeting and Event Center
Mortgage Equity Group
Northern California Real Estate Investors Association
Northern San Diego Real Estate Investors Association
Real Wealth Network
RE 411 Magazine
San Jose Real Estate Investors Association
Daniel Dear
Women\'s Council of Realtors - Inland Valley Chapter
Westin South Coast Plaza
Saddleback Valley Communities Petere Apostolos Awesome Limousines
RealtyTrac National Association of Real Estate Investors Far Below Market

141-TNG Radio – I Survived Real Estate 2009 9-26-09

Friday, September 25th, 2009

part1-300x225

I Survived Real Estate 2009

Fundraiser for the Orange County Affiliate for Susan G. Komen for the Cure

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itunes

download

rss

This week The Norris Group Real Estate Radio Show presents Part 2 of I Survived Real Estate 2009.

Rick Sharga joined RealtyTrac in 2004. He is responsible for branch management, corporate positioning, investor relations, and marketing communications. He has appeared on virtually appeared on every TV show in America.

Foreclosure activity has increased. Since January 2005, we have had 43 consecutive months in which our foreclosure numbers have increased. In 2009 of July, we had over 361,000 U.S. households received a foreclosure notice. 2005 was the last time we saw anything resembling normal foreclosure activity. In a normal market place, about 1 percent of all first and second loans will end up in foreclosure. In 2005, we had about 500,000 foreclosure notices and 100,000 REOs. In July of 2009, we had 75,000 REOs. We are dealing with foreclosure levels that are six times what they would be in a normal market, and the REO levels are 10 times what they would be in a normal market. The people responsible for managing these assets are overwhelmed, and the rules are frequently changing for them. The legal system is trying to help this problem by creating moratoriums, which do nothing more than delay the inevitable.

Last year, 2.3 million households received a foreclosure notice. California accounts for about 1/3 of that foreclosure activity. Up until the last six months, REO activity was occurring more often than all other forms of foreclosure activity. It is now lagging behind the other types of foreclosure. About 1/3 of the properties scheduled for foreclosure are being delayed at auctions.

In Cleveland, a home owner was arrested for failure to pay taxes on a house that he thought had been foreclosed on six months earlier, because the bank started the process then decided that they did not want any more properties, but by that time the owner had already moved out.

There is a “shadow inventory” of about 400,000 to 500,000 REOs that have not yet been put on the market for sale. We will have to get rid of those homes before things get back to normal.

60 percent of all foreclosure activity is found in 6 states. We are now having a wave of unemployment related foreclosures in places including Idaho, Utah, and Arkansas.

There are about 60 to 100 billion dollars worth of Alt-A and option-ARM loans that are going to reset early this year. They are going to default, and they have been defaulting at numbers worse than sub primes. The big wave of those loans will not hit until around the second quarter of next year.

Unemployment is going to pass 10 percent. There will be 1 foreclosure for every 6 to 10 jobs lost. We have lost 7 million jobs since the beginning of the recession. We are setting records for personal bankruptcy filings. Foreclosure properties today are worth more than they were about 1 year ago. Studies from the NAR and CAR show that as foreclosure numbers increase, prices go down.

The builders have said that if we do not keep new housing starts between 200,000 to 300,000 new units per year, for the next 3 years, then we will not get the inventory balanced. Right now we are at a 500,000 to 600,000 unit rate.

The MBA’s delinquency rates are running faster than RealtyTrac’s foreclosure activity rates. That tells us that there is a lot of pressure coming onto the market.

RealtyTrac believes that there will be 3.4 million homes receiving a foreclosure notice this year. Rick believes that option ARMs are going to reset at record levels next year. Option ARMs are usually on properties that are upside down, so the programs made to prevent these from foreclosing will not work. Rick believes we will stabilize in 2011. We will not see normal churn levels until about 2012.

The next speaker was Jon Young. He has been in the real estate and home building industry for over 30 years. He and his partners are responsible for the building of over 3,500 homes in the Inland Empire. He is the current vice president of the CBIA, and he serves on the board of the NAHB.

Home builders have been hit very hard by the down turn. This year, Jon believes that only 40,000 new units will be built. That is the lowest number of new units since the early 1950s. In 2004, we saw a 15 year high of nearly 213,000 units built. In just five years, new home starts have plummeted 80 percent.

The construction of one singly-family home generates around 2 to 3 jobs, 330,000 in economic benefit, about 16,000 in state tax revenue, and 3,000 in local tax revenue. If the housing market does not get better then the state will not get better.

Jon has focused on 5 goals for this year. These were: extending the expiring map act, develop and fee reforms, solving the credit crunch, reducing unsold inventory, and extending the home buyers tax credit.

CBI sponsored an extension that would require any viable project to the beginning of the entitlement process. Since this bill was signed, hundreds of expiring subdivision maps. Impact fees are a burden on the business. The profit margin has been reduced so much that it makes the cost of building unfeasible. AB1084 will help to make sure that builders are being charged a fair amount, if it is passed. CBIA is supporting a bill which will give the state bank authorization to help home builders get financing for construction. CBIA is also supporting a bill that would require CHFA to provide funding for the purchasing of these homes. CBIA also sponsored the home buyer tax credit which provided incentive for new buyers to buy. The home sales increased dramatically through this program. The program has done so well that the franchise tax board decided to end it, because they have already allocated $100,000,000 dollars. We also had a Federal tax credit for 8,000 dollars, which will end in November of this year.

The video of the live event is not being aired online HERE.

The Susan G. Komen “Walk for the Cure” is this Sunday, September 27th at Newport Beach. Donations both small and large are appreciated. You can visit isurvived2009.com to learn how you can still get involved.

Here are the speakers involved in the event:

Bruce Norris of the Norris Group

Bruce Norris

President

The Norris Group

David Kittle, President of the Mortgage Bankers Association

David Kittle

2009 Chairman

Mortgage Bankers Association

2007 President, National Association of Realtors

Pat Vredevoogd Combs

2007 President

National Association of Realtors

Tommy Williams, 2008 President National Auctioneers Association

Tommy Williams

2008 President

National Auctioneers Association

Christopher Thornberg, Principal and Beacon Economics

Christopher Thornberg

Principal

Beacon Economics

 

John Young

Vice President

California Builders Industry Association

Joseph Magdziarz, VP Appraisal Institute

Joseph Magdziarz

Vice President

Appraisal Institute

Rick Sharga, Senior VP RealtyTrac

Rick Sharga

Senior Vice President

RealtyTrac

To Benefit:

I Survived Real Estate 2009 Sponsors

A huge thank you to all of our sponsors who made this event possible.

Platinum Sponsors

San Diego Creative Investors Association
investClub for Women
Investors Workshop
Frye / Wiles - Web Design in Southern California

Entrust California
MVT Productions - Audio and Video
JK Short Sale
The Business Press
White House Catering
 
National Fix and Flip Network
 

Gold Sponsors

1 m 1 Properties
Appraisal Institute of Southern California
Dalmae
Thank you Elite Auctions for being Gold Sponsors!
Inland Empire Investors Forum
Las Brisas Escrow
Los Angeles Meeting and Event Center
Mortgage Equity Group
Northern California Real Estate Investors Association
Northern San Diego Real Estate Investors Association
Real Wealth Network
RE 411 Magazine
San Jose Real Estate Investors Association
Daniel Dear
Women\'s Council of Realtors - Inland Valley Chapter
Westin South Coast Plaza
Saddleback Valley Communities Petere Apostolos Awesome Limousines
RealtyTrac National Association of Real Estate Investors Far Below Market

140-TNG Radio – I Survived Real Estate 2009 9-19-09

Saturday, September 19th, 2009

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I Survived Real Estate 2009

Fundraiser for the Orange County Affiliate for Susan G. Komen for the Cure

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This week The Norris Group Real Estate Radio Show presents Part 1 of “I Survived Real Estate 2009”. Aaron Norris starts the show by discussing the purpose of the event. I Survived 2009 is a breast cancer fundraiser. All donations received for this event were given to the Susan G. Komen for the Cure foundation. The Norris family has been personally touched by cancer, as Marsha Norris has been fighting cancer for 14 years.

The Susan G. Komen “Walk for the Cure” is September 27th at Newport Beach. Donations both small and large are appreciated. You can visit isurvived2009.com to learn how you can still get involved. The video of the event will be posted later next week.

Play Now

 

 

 

Bruce Norris of the Norris Group

Bruce Norris

President

The Norris Group

David Kittle, President of the Mortgage Bankers Association

David Kittle

2009 Chairman

Mortgage Bankers Association

2007 President, National Association of Realtors

Pat Vredevoogd Combs

2007 President

National Association of Realtors

Tommy Williams, 2008 President National Auctioneers Association

Tommy Williams

2008 President

National Auctioneers Association

Christopher Thornberg, Principal and Beacon Economics

Christopher Thornberg

Principal

Beacon Economics

 

John Young

Vice President

California Builders Industry Association

Joseph Magdziarz, VP Appraisal Institute

Joseph Magdziarz

Vice President

Appraisal Institute

Rick Sharga, Senior VP RealtyTrac

Rick Sharga

Senior Vice President

RealtyTrac

To Benefit:

I Survived Real Estate 2009 Sponsors

A huge thank you to all of our sponsors who made this event possible.

Platinum Sponsors

San Diego Creative Investors Association
investClub for Women
Investors Workshop
Frye / Wiles - Web Design in Southern California

Entrust California
MVT Productions - Audio and Video
JK Short Sale
The Business Press
White House Catering
 
National Fix and Flip Network
 

Gold Sponsors

1 m 1 Properties
Appraisal Institute of Southern California
Dalmae
Thank you Elite Auctions for being Gold Sponsors!
Inland Empire Investors Forum
Las Brisas Escrow
Los Angeles Meeting and Event Center
Mortgage Equity Group
Northern California Real Estate Investors Association
Northern San Diego Real Estate Investors Association
Real Wealth Network
RE 411 Magazine
San Jose Real Estate Investors Association
Daniel Dear
Women\'s Council of Realtors - Inland Valley Chapter
Westin South Coast Plaza
Saddleback Valley Communities Petere Apostolos Awesome Limousines
RealtyTrac National Association of Real Estate Investors Far Below Market

136-TNG Radio – Tommy Williams 8-22-09

Friday, August 21st, 2009

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Tommy Williams

2008 President of The National Auctioneers Association

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This week Bruce is joined by Tommy Williams. Tommy is certified by the Auctioneers Institute. He is the founding partner of Williams and Williams Auction Company. He served as president between 1986 and 2000, and he became board chairman in 2001. He has conducted over 10,000 auctions all over the world. Tommy is also part of our I Survived Real Estate 2009 expert panel.

Tommy Williams has done auctions in multiple countries such as Puerto Rico, Canada, and his company is working with companies in South Africa. Bruce thinks that bank owned properties are probably very prevalent in other countries as well so their auction business has probably picked up. What has occurred in the United States has occurred all over the world. Tommy thinks that it is amazing that a country so far removed from the United States, like South Africa, has gone through the same economic swing. The entire world is experiencing the real estate bubble bust.

The United States auctioning business has gotten better. The number of auctions have increased, and auction popularity has increased for many years as well. However, the auctions are not making as much money because the real estate market prices are not doing well.

In 2003-2008, the business for residential real estate went from $11.5 billion to $17 billion. The volume has gone up, but the pricing has gone down very far, so auctioneers have to sell larger numbers of units to achieve the same profit. In many areas of the United States, home prices are down 75 percent from their peak. Bruce recently bought two properties, from a lender, for 15 percent of the owed amount. This is not an unusual occurrence. In many of these cases, the original buyer had a very bad loan. Fraud is involved in many of these cases. A property that may have never been worth 10,000 to begin with may have been given a mortgage of 100,000.

It was common in the lower end of Moreno Valley to have a neighborhood in which each property was selling for $300,000, but now the price for those homes is generally around 100,000. The buyer and lending mindset was very different in 2005.

Bruce asks if the auction business has shifted to making the multi-property owner to be its main customer rather than the individual property owner. Tommy says that he hopes this is not true. He believes that if you want to build a successful auction company then you need to deal specifically with normal “end-user” buyer and seller. The focus of an auction company should always be to deal with private owners/investors. There are very few companies that deal with REOs, and that is not a long range way to build a business.

Deutsche Bank recently said that by 2010 or 2011, 50 percent of the owners in the United States will be upside down. That would have a profound effect on the amount of inventory that would be able to sign up for a one house auction. The most important thing about a house that is upside down is that the seller needs to sell their house. Either they cannot afford their house any more, or they have had a change in lifestyle such as a job transfer or a divorce. People need to sell their properties at the time they become a liability. If they go through a long foreclosure process then their property will deteriorate, and their neighborhood may deteriorate, and they will end up selling a property for less than they could have.

A Campbell Report that came out in which 1,000 agents responded to a questionnaire. These agents claimed that the biggest problem they were dealing with was a lender’s slow response to a short sale offer. It takes months. The auction business could help the lender decide what the value of a property is. Auctions can identity, with nearly absolute certainty, what the market place thinks a property is worth. If multiple people bid on a property, and the highest bid is $100,000 dollars, then you have discovered what the market value for that property is. It is frustrating to see lenders take such a long route to discovering the truth about the value of their property, and take a huge price hit in the process. Lenders have dealt with the problem of over valued homes in the worst way possible. Tommy had a neighbor who went through a divorce and had other life changes. This neighbor bought his property for about $650,000, and he started going delinquent on his payments. Tommy told him his house would sell for about $450 to $500,000 at that time. This neighbor believed Tommy to be correct, but his lender would not negotiate with him, so he went through the foreclosure process, and he eventually walked away from it. This home recently closed for about $370,000 and Tommy could have sold it for much more. Tommy has been trying to tell this story to congressmen and senators, so that these problems may be fixed in the future, but they will not listen.

This is one of the reasons why I Survived Real Estate 2009 is so important to Bruce. Every industry affects other industries. Fortunately for Tommy Williams, he has not had trouble with appraisers arguing with the price that homes have sold for at his auctions, because the value is proven by the market place. One of his colleagues sold their home, and their lender told them that they would not lend money on a home bought at an auction. The National Auctioneers Association immediately contacted them and asked them to explain this policy, but they would not. This problem did not occur with a small lending company.

The word “auction” has a bad meaning in the United States. Here, it means that you have a desperate seller. In 2004 to 2006, Bruce was receiving multiple offers on each of his “for sale” properties. If Bruce had thought to offer those homes in an auction, which would put each of those buyers in direct competition with each other, his selling prices would have definitely been higher. When the market is really over heated, that is when you want to have an auction for sure. Under desperate times, such as right now, the reason why you have an auction is because buyers will not show up if you use any other method.

On September 11, the builders will be attending the real estate event. Bruce thinks it would be a perfect partnership if builders started selling with auctioneers. Tommy has had this opportunity on two different occasions. At the time, everybody thought this was crazy, but the auctions were very successful. If Tommy was in the building business, he would launch his selling process with an auction. Bruce is planning on getting involved in building soon, and he plans on using auctions for selling his houses.

When you participate in the boom market, it is easy to sell, so you do not think about auctioning your home. Also, auctions are typically seen as an option that is only used in a tough market. The auction is viewed different ways in different countries. In New Zealand, auctions are one of the first options used for selling homes. Views towards auctions also vary in different states. States like Tennessee, Ohio, and Missouri have a much more positive view towards auctions than states like California.

Tommy has found it difficult to buy bulk properties within the last six months. There are opportunities out there, but good businessmen would not go after those opportunities.

We look forward to seeing Tommy Williams September 11th at I Survived Real Estate 2009.

Tommy served as President of the National Auctioneers Association in 2008 and is current Chairman of the Board. Tommy also graciously took part in I Survived Real Estate 2008 last year and will also appear on the I Survived Real Estate 2009 panel.

Thomas L. Williams is a graduate of Penn State University (B.S. Animal Science) and the Certified Auctioneers Institute (CAI). Representing the third generation of Williams family auctioneers dating back to the mid-1800s, Williams is also a graduate of the historic Reppert School of Auctioneering. He has over 40 years experience in real estate auctions, land development and real estate investment. He currently serves as President of the National Auctioneers Association.

A founding partner of Williams & Williams, Williams served as president from 1986-2000, and became board chairman in 2001. He also co-founded and served as managing partner of Lowderman & Williams Auctioneers from 1965-85. He has conducted over 10,000 auctions in all 48 of the contiguous United States and Canada, and is an advisor to auctions conducted throughout Western Europe, South Africa, Australia and New Zealand.

An avid cattleman, Williams also owned and operated Bradmar Angus Farms from 1965-85, after which he continued to serve as a herd and genetics consultant for many of the nation’s premier Angus cattle breeders.

Williams is a licensed auctioneer and real estate broker in over 20 states, and an active member of the National Association of Realtors.

 

118-TNG Radio – Tommy Williams 4-18-09

Saturday, April 18th, 2009

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Tommy Williams

2008 President of The National Auctioneers Association

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Bruce Norris is joined once again by past President and current Chairman of the Board for the National Auctioneers Association and co-founder of Williams and Williams Auctions, Tommy Williams.

Bruce starts by asking if there is a different process in selling real estate and cattle. Tommy says there is a slight difference but he’s hoping the audience will still understand. He says cattle auction goes a little faster and is a little more entertaining.

Auto auctions generate close to 50% of the proceeds for auctions. The end buyers are typically dealers. There are both dealer and public auctions but some are only available to dealers.

July 13-18th is an auction reunion in Kansas and Bruce asks who attends. Tommy says over 1,000 auctioneers will attend and bring families. It is the best and main time of year to attend education for the auction industry. Over 60 seminars will be available.

Bruce asks about Tommy’s family history in the auctions business. Tommy says there was a little family history but he fell into it on his own. Tommy’s son Dean is an attorney and didn’t plan to be in the auction industry. Tommy moved the business from Illinois to Oklahoma and Dean visited while in school and ended up later partnering. Tommy says he has six grandkids and he thinks a few might be interested in the business.

Bruce talks about the model Williams and Williams has chosen and how it is different from other auction houses. Tommy says online auctions are a very viable way to sell items and Williams and Williams does conduct online auctions. However, Tommy says a property will earn 10% more on the lawn then it will bring online or in a ballroom setting. It’s significant and matters. There is more expense in having these types of auctions.

Tommy describes the difference between absolute and seller reserve auctions. Tommy says the absolute auction is by far the best and motivates the buyer to the ultimate level of bidding. It also attracts the most attendance which is key for the best price. Tommy says many can’t stomach absolute so more are sold with reserve.

Tommy says it not impossible for very experienced auctioneers make mistakes. It’s complicated and not as easy it may look. Advertising has definitely changed over the years. The newspaper has dropped in value each and every day and online advertising has gotten more important. The auction companies track the marketing process very carefully to see where most people are seeing the information.

Tommy says when the word “sold” is uttered, in an absolute auction, it is the most binding contract you can enter into. It is different in a seller reserve. Bruce talks about dealing with deposits in real estate now and how difficult closing can become. Tommy says he thinks 10% down should be at stake to make sure the buyers are truly qualified. Tommy says he doesn’t like the current way real estate is sold because of these issues as buyers can tie up your property will no ramifications if they don’t come through.

Tommy describes how the auction business is commissioned. Williams and Williams gets commissioned directly from the seller. Some lenders require, however, a buyer’s premium. Many more auctions are charging buyers but Tommy actually likes charging the seller. He thinks the buyers see the auction in a more positive light and the premium isn’t seen as a tax on their purchase.

Bruce asks about Tommy dealing with lower priced areas. Tommy says there are minimum fees that must be charged. There does become a point where auctions can’t sell a property because it doesn’t cover the fees.

Bruce talks about lenders not foreclosing on properties because there is more owned on the property then it is worth so lenders don’t do anything with it. Tommy says this issue is really serious and most people aren’t hearing about. Tommy says he’s seen some neighborhoods where 80% of the neighborhood is vacant. There’s almost no choice but to tear them down as they become magnets for vandalism, squatters, and drug labs. Bruce says it doesn’t even have to be an old areas and Tommy sounds surprised. Tommy says that’s why these homes have to be given occupants whether they are investors or owner occupants. Empty properties are not good for neighborhoods.

Bruce talks about Orange County and the FDIC leasing space to set up shop to deal with assets. He asks if Tommy has heard of that and if Williams and Williams were involved in the RTC situation. Tommy says they were slightly involved with the RTC but dealing with government is difficult. Tommy had not heard of the offices being rented in Orange County. Tommy is worried the FDIC will warehouse the properties and it will make the problem worse.

Bruce brings up a new term he saw on the Williams and Williams website called “auction referral cooperative.” Tommy says this is a way to establish a network of like-minded auctioneers that refer one another. There’s no financial obligation and they are simply looking for other auctioneers of the same mind and there’s a referral fee involved.

Thank you Tommy as always for joining us on the show. We look forward to seeing you again this year on September 11th, 2009 for I Survived Real Estate 2009. See more on Williams and Williams at Williamsauction.com.

Tommy served as President of the National Auctioneers Association in 2008 and is current Chairman of the Board. Tommy also graciously took part in I Survived Real Estate 2008 last year.

Thomas L. Williams is a graduate of Penn State University (B.S. Animal Science) and the Certified Auctioneers Institute (CAI). Representing the third generation of Williams family auctioneers dating back to the mid-1800s, Williams is also a graduate of the historic Reppert School of Auctioneering. He has over 40 years experience in real estate auctions, land development and real estate investment. He currently serves as President of the National Auctioneers Association.

A founding partner of Williams & Williams, Williams served as president from 1986-2000, and became board chairman in 2001. He also co-founded and served as managing partner of Lowderman & Williams Auctioneers from 1965-85. He has conducted over 10,000 auctions in all 48 of the contiguous United States and Canada, and is an advisor to auctions conducted throughout Western Europe, South Africa, Australia and New Zealand.

An avid cattleman, Williams also owned and operated Bradmar Angus Farms from 1965-85, after which he continued to serve as a herd and genetics consultant for many of the nation’s premier Angus cattle breeders.

Williams is a licensed auctioneer and real estate broker in over 20 states, and an active member of the National Association of Realtors.

 

117-TNG Radio – Tommy Williams 4-11-09

Friday, April 10th, 2009

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Tommy Williams

2008 President of The National Auctioneers Association

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Bruce Norris is joined this week by past President and current Chairman of the Board for the National Auctioneers Association and co-founder of Williams and Williams Auctions, Tommy Williams.

Bruce starts the interview by asking what auction companies miss out on when they aren’t members of the National Auctioneers Association. Tommy says non members miss out of networking, best practices, and education which furthers their professional endeavors. April 18th is national auction day and Tommy would like auctioneers to make communities aware of the benefit that auctions bring to the community. Auctions have the huge benefit of establishing market value on a certain day for numerous products and assets. They also might highlight their charity work in the community through charity auctions. Tommy feels the media picks up too much negative information about auctions and doesn’t highlight all the positives.

Bruce says he read that auctions raise as much money for charities that is sold in real estate and Tommy says that is true. Tommy says auctioneers bring a very important piece of expertise to nonprofit organizations.

Bruce asks if Realtors view auctions as competitors or partners and Tommy thinks too many see auctions as competitors. Tommy says there is fear that auctions establish market value and sometimes people don’t want to really know that actual value. The real estate community wants to not take the hit. Bruce says he’s baulked at final bids before and most times he paid for not selling at that time. Tommy says all of us have been in that situation. Usually, the public will tell the truth and auctions are the best barometer for prices and it will also tell you where price trends are going.

Bruce asks if women are getting more involved in auctions. Tommy says this is a growing trend as it used to be a male dominated field. Tommy says 20-30% of classes for auctions are now women.

Bruce asks about legislative issues that are affecting auctions in general. Tommy says that when legislation postpones the sale of assets it usually means there will be net price deterioration. Real estate is very fragile and unattended and vacant homes tend to lose value.

Bruce says Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac postponed auctions for their properties but in April have started back up. Doing this moratorium cost them money. Tommy says their unwillingness to accept market value has cost them millions. The more they postpone, the worse it will get.

Bruce says he read the auction magazine that in the last few years $270 billion worth of assets were sold. Tommy says this is not a record but getting close. There’s been steady growth in the total dollar sold at auction. 2008 saw prices for assets decline so volume went up but prices were down due to devaluation. So in volume, 2007 and 2008 were record setting years.

Bruce talks about trustee sales and how the lack of advertising doesn’t help the cause. Bruce asks if the National Auctioneers Association has any intent to try and get involved in the trustee sale process. Tommy says that was one of his main goals as President was to do away with the traditional foreclosure process. If the home was sold at the trustee sale to an end user it would save the mortgage holder at least $15,000 in transaction fees. This is not including price declines. This would be of huge benefit to the mortgage industry as a new loan with a new end user would immediately take the property.

Bruce talks about current laws and issues of cities hiring people solely to write fines to homes that are considered blight and that are violating codes. Tommy worries that these types of laws only makes lenders not excited to loan which further exacerbates the lending policies we currently face. No one will want to lend in these areas.

Bruce asks Tommy if he’s nervous about a shift in the American perspective. Tommy says he is concerned that capitalism and private enterprise is something that Americans are now wondering if they should be in favor of. Bruce says he’s concerned as well for some of the things that he’s seen and hopes we can solve some of these issues soon. At “I Survived Real Estate 2008” several solutions were presented but none have been implemented. Bruce things banks could save themselves so much time and money by doing so.

Tommy talks about his pre-foreclosure auction concept. Some Realtors are doing something very similar without approval. Tommy says they’ve implemented something very similar in their company and they’ve tried it out with consumers. As soon as a consumer was falling behind, Williams and Williams worked with the consumer to present the property to the public as well as possible. The final offer was presented to the lender. However, the loan servicer is typically the decision maker and is far removed from the actual decision maker. The goal needs to be lenders getting rid of this stuff as soon as possible to get things moving. This particular solutions gets a new person in the home right away.

For more information visit williamsauction.com or thenorrisgroup.com. Join us next week for part two with Tommy Williams.

Tommy served as President of the National Auctioneers Association in 2008 and is current Chairman of the Board. Tommy also graciously took part in I Survived Real Estate 2008 last year.

Thomas L. Williams is a graduate of Penn State University (B.S. Animal Science) and the Certified Auctioneers Institute (CAI). Representing the third generation of Williams family auctioneers dating back to the mid-1800s, Williams is also a graduate of the historic Reppert School of Auctioneering. He has over 40 years experience in real estate auctions, land development and real estate investment. He currently serves as President of the National Auctioneers Association.

A founding partner of Williams & Williams, Williams served as president from 1986-2000, and became board chairman in 2001. He also co-founded and served as managing partner of Lowderman & Williams Auctioneers from 1965-85. He has conducted over 10,000 auctions in all 48 of the contiguous United States and Canada, and is an advisor to auctions conducted throughout Western Europe, South Africa, Australia and New Zealand.

An avid cattleman, Williams also owned and operated Bradmar Angus Farms from 1965-85, after which he continued to serve as a herd and genetics consultant for many of the nation’s premier Angus cattle breeders.

Williams is a licensed auctioneer and real estate broker in over 20 states, and an active member of the National Association of Realtors.

 

91-TNG Radio – I Survived Real Estate 10-11-08

Friday, October 10th, 2008

isurvived2008

I Survived Real Estate 2008

Part Nine

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Part nine of “I Survived Real Estate 2008” is the final portion of the radio segments for the event. The show picks up with a bit of a rerun from last week. All new discussions around minute 14.

We pick up where Tommy Williams chimes in and says there are other states that had the same inventory for half the price of the states that got overheated. Overheated states have to come back to “normal.”

Bruce says he agrees but says that’s part of the reason he loves California real estate. California wins so many tie breakers. There’s exciting volatility you don’t get in other states.

Bruce talks about Fannie and Freddie and if we’ll see them stay in private ownership.

Christopher Thornberg says they are clearly insolvent and he doesn’t know what they will do or how they will react. Typically they overact.

Bruce asks the panel if the government writing these big checks will increase inflation and if we’ll see much different interest rates three years from now.

Christopher describes the two ways our government pays the bills; issue debt or printing money. Christopher says our government assumes that investors have confidence in the system. If investors see the bottom drop out of the public bond market and the treasuries go crazy then there’s a problem but he says we’re far from that. Christopher says interest rates are now adjusting for the increased risk. Eventually they’ll come down when this crisis passes.

Bruce talks about when he became an investor he refinanced his house at 17% interest. Many people were telling him at the time he’d never see single digit interest rates again. Bruce says interest rates can be very high as long as the income to median price ratio makes sense. There could still be a healthy market.

Rick talks about market psychology and how nervous buyers and lenders are at the moment.

Bruce talks about the velocity of price drops in the market being historical and some are unaware. 35-50% price declines are shocking.

Joel discusses a Zillow study where 7 out of 10 people thought their home was still appreciating. Christopher Thornberg calls that homo-illucination and what it stands for.

Bruce asks Phil Tirone if lenders are skewing too conservative and not making loans at all. The automated underwriting was such a blessing at the time because it made things ease and now it’s making it worse. Phil describes people putting 50% down and he still can’t get financing because his client’s credit score is low.

Christopher says those automated systems were a disaster and that lenders knew how to manipulate the systems. Philip says these systems did help cause the problem. Christopher says once the price gets down low everyone will qualify.

Bruce touches on affordability. Bruce describes affordability and what it solves and does not solve. He describes past cycles and what he looks for in a turned around market. Bruce looks for migration coming back as the true indicator as the decline for foreclosures. We’ve gone from 16 months of inventory to under 7 months but sees it as a false indicator. Those that didn’t have to sell left the market.

Joel Singer disagrees. He’s assuming 85% of homes are owner occupied. He doesn’t see too many rentals occurring for those pulling out of the market since they don’t have to sell, especially in coastal regions. Inland Empire is where most of the vacancies are occurring. He agrees that people who don’t have to sell don’t and pull out of the market. He said it was like this in the 90s. Affordability tells you about first time buyers but not the trade up market. We still have to consider unemployment rate. Affordability is not perfect but decent indicator of first time buyers. Psychology is important too.

Joel says 50% more sales are occurring on top of tight lending so things could be changing. He thinks more investors are going to be needed for a certain period of time. He thinks a few of Bruce’s ideas could be sold but others could not. He does think from a policy point of view that affordability going up is a good thing.

The vacancy rate is getting close to the national average but it’s always different here in California. Joel thinks the loan assumptions idea won’t work. 90 day seasoning period for investors should be able to work with some sort of certification that the repairs have been done.

Bruce asks Christopher which chart he’s looking at for an end of the downturn. He says when prices stop dropping. Joel says that seasonally prices are sure to fall in the coming months as they typically do. Christopher rephrases his original comment to seasonally adjusted.

Joel feels prices in some areas are already improving and multiple bidding is occurring. Joel feels a bottom floor is starting to appear in some areas. The overall economy will be important in deciding the outcome as will the outcome for Fannie and Freddie.

Christopher says we have way too many 4,000 square foot houses. He also brings up unemployment so there are still other things to consider before he calls it over.

Joel reminds the audience that markets are local and that San Bernardino and South Bay are very different. He says most people will miss the bottom.

Bruce beings up the list of properties the Norris Group purchased. Homes The Norris Group purchased for $110k are now being bought for $85k. These properties often also have multiple bids but our offers are stronger. Bruce is worried about twice as many trustees deeds then sales in Riverside County. That ratio is much worse then last time.

Joel says statewide though it’s different and there’s still more sales than foreclosures. He’s actually surprised. If you go up to 400,000 foreclosures then there’s a much more serious problem.

Philip says there are portfolio lenders that are stepping up with non-owner occupied with low 7%-high 6%, 30% down, with no limit for investors. So there is financing out there.

Bruce thanks the panel and the evening ends. See also the video on YouTube or Google video.

The following partners and sponsors without whom the event would not have been possible:

Platinum Sponsors:

The San Diego Creative Investors Association (SDCIA): sdcia.com

Investors Workshops: investorsworkshops.com

Frye Wiles: fryewiles.com

Proxibid: proxibid.com

White House Catering: whcatering.com

MVT Productions: mvtpro.com

Pechanga Resort and Casino: pechanga.com

The Denver Nuggets: nba.com nuggets

The Chicago Bulls: nba.com bulls

The Cleveland Cavaliers: nba.com cavaliers

Gold Sponsors:

7 Steps to a 720 Credit Score and Philip X. Tirone – 7stepsto720.com

Chicago Title – ctic.com

Elite Auctions – sellwithauction.com

Foreclosure Trackers – foreclosuretrackers.com

Investors Resource Center of America LA and Steve and Robyn Love – irca-losangeles.com

Las Brisas Escrow – lasbrisasescrow.com

National Club of Real Estate Investors and Sam Saddat – ncrei.com

Northern California Real Estate Investors Association (Norcalreia) and David Granzella – norcalreia.com

North San Diego Real Estate Investors and Linda Wessels – nsdrei.org

RealtyTrac – realtytrac.com

RE Ventures and Michael Pines – reventuresrealty.com

Real Estate Investors Club of Los Angeles and Phyllis Rockower – realestateclubla.com

Real Wealth Investor and Scott Whaley – realwealthinvestor.com

Saddleback Valley Communities – svc4.com

Silverstar Finance and Janet French – silverstarfinance.com

Sunset Hills Memorial Park and Mortuary – sunsethills.cc

The Mission Inn – missioninn.com

The Mortgage Equity Group – http: themeg.net

The Naked Real Estate Investor Club – Rosie Nieto – nakedrealestateinvestorsclub.com

The Short Sale Processor and Nick Manfredi – theshortsaleprocessor.com

Virtual Real Estate Tour and Layla Tusko – 1wealthcreation.com

Wholesale Capital Corporation – wccmtg.com

89-TNG Radio – I Survived Real Estate 10-4-08

Friday, October 3rd, 2008

isurvived2008

I Survived Real Estate 2008

Part Seven

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Part seven of “I Survived Real Estate 2008” picks up with the panel interview from the last session where Bruce talks about how Wall Street keeps calling to find out when bottom is so they can profit even though they are part of the reason we’re in this current situation.

Rick talks about large pools of money purchasing these loans at deep discounts and then fixing the principles of the people in the homes.

Bruce then responds by talking about HR3221 about how HUD can buy first trust deeds at a discount and how the new structure would allow them to alter the loan of the person in the property. Bruce worries about the ramifications of this program. It is limited in who can apply since it applies to adjustable mortgages only. The people who really get burned are those next door who qualified for a fixed loan and are making the payments. They did everything correctly but they don’t apply for the principle reduction. With California being a non recourse state, Bruce worries the dominos that might fall. Bruce then asks Philip Tirone if bailing from mortgages is becoming more acceptable.

Philip says clients don’t care about the moral issue of walking away; they are more concerned about the credit ramification. Philip talks about the raised loan limits and how everyone thought it would make a difference. They think things are going to help but when you get into the legislation, it doesn’t.

Bruce agrees with Christopher in that the median price has to become more reasonable. Christopher thinks another 6 months and everyone will qualify.

Tommy Williams brings up the very important point of moral hazard in letting something like a bailouts occur. Not holding consumers accountable sets up a larger problem for the future.

Bruce asks Christopher about Merrill Lynch taking .22 cents on the dollar for a $30 billion package of CDOs . He says they actually got 5% in cash and carried back a note and guaranteed the pile. Bruce asks whose money was actually lost. Christopher says it was the consumer investing in their company. Christopher says this buyout is another instrument and accounting mechanism. The financial system, Christopher says, is an absolute mess. All banks are having a difficult time. We’re having an issue with cash because of it.

Bruce asks Christopher about how FDIC can handle writing these sort of checks and if the government will just keep writing checks. Christopher says that they’ll have to be bailed out as well. Bruce asks if stagflation will be a problem. Christopher says he doesn’t think it will be an issue.

Bruce asks Rick Sharga about the difference between a bank owning a loan and the individual owner. Rick explains how the process works. Banks can accept the losses but the private investors can’t as easily take the hit. These loans are not as flexible as the securitized loans. Bruce talks about HR3221 and how the second must be wiped out first.

About 10% of the foreclosures list in Riverside being non-owner occupied but 70% out of the 90% that are owner occupied have simultaneous first and second at the time of purchase. Almost 100% of these properties are 100% financed.

Joel Singer brings up refinancing. The number of first payment defaults is huge because of bad credit and no skin in the game. The good news, he says, 2 out of 3 will stay in their home most likely. However, he is much more concerned about price drops then the mortgage resets. He thinks more people will walk if the prices get too low.

Bruce also brings up unemployment and how it will continue to go up. He says out migration will then probably force more to leave.

Bruce asks Annemaria if loan tightening happens during every cycle. Annemaria talk about how there’s a cycle and she thinks that this will never happen on this scale again. Lenders are in sheer panic because of what’s gone on and all the legislation now being presented. It’s a little late to implement since everyone has already got in. Bruce feels once we get into a safe market, the next person will dream up the next special mortgage.

Christopher says financial investors are always slipping in risk and hiding it. Incentives from Wall Street are bazaar and we need to not trust them so this doesn’t happen.

Bruce sees the foreclosures coming as being a huge problem and much worse then the 90s. In the 90s we had two times as many sales as we had foreclosures. This year, we’ll have two times as many foreclosures to sales.

Joel Singer says the 90s downturn was caused by unemployment. There were 7 years where prices were flat. Joel is curious to see if the market will clear faster because of the steep price drop. He thinks we have to make the market clear and he feels that it really already has. Joel is stunned at how many sales are currently being made and he doesn’t think it’s investor purchases. It’s cheaper to buy then rent in some places. Builders are having a hard time competing because homes are being bought below replacement costs.

Bruce talks about his Grand Junction, Colorado experience buying all of HUD’s condos. Bruce set all the costs at $8,000 a condo but no one would buy because the market was too scary. Emotions definitely play a role.

Rick says he talked to a man who handled the REO assets at a credit union and the man was wondering if RealtyTrac could supply him a list of who owned the first. Rick was surprised since he thought that would have been information that was gathered. The man said they did not have the information as little information was gathered on the first mortgage and little was taken on the homebuyer. More next week or see YouTube or Google video for the entire program. Next week is the final week of the audio.

The following partners and sponsors without whom the event would not have been possible:

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The San Diego Creative Investors Association (SDCIA): sdcia.com

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7 Steps to a 720 Credit Score and Philip X. Tirone – 7stepsto720.com

Chicago Title – ctic.com

Elite Auctions – sellwithauction.com

Foreclosure Trackers – foreclosuretrackers.com

Investors Resource Center of America LA and Steve and Robyn Love – irca-losangeles.com

Las Brisas Escrow – lasbrisasescrow.com

National Club of Real Estate Investors and Sam Saddat – ncrei.com

Northern California Real Estate Investors Association (Norcalreia) and David Granzella – norcalreia.com

North San Diego Real Estate Investors and Linda Wessels – nsdrei.org

RealtyTrac – realtytrac.com

RE Ventures and Michael Pines – reventuresrealty.com

Real Estate Investors Club of Los Angeles and Phyllis Rockower – realestateclubla.com

Real Wealth Investor and Scott Whaley – realwealthinvestor.com

Saddleback Valley Communities – svc4.com

Silverstar Finance and Janet French – silverstarfinance.com

Sunset Hills Memorial Park and Mortuary – sunsethills.cc

The Mission Inn – missioninn.com

The Mortgage Equity Group – http: themeg.net

The Naked Real Estate Investor Club – Rosie Nieto – nakedrealestateinvestorsclub.com

The Short Sale Processor and Nick Manfredi – theshortsaleprocessor.com

Virtual Real Estate Tour and Layla Tusko – 1wealthcreation.com

Wholesale Capital Corporation – wccmtg.com