The Norris Group Blog

California Real Estate Headline Roundup

Posts Tagged ‘short sale’

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 3/3/10

Wednesday, March 3rd, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

Bruce Norris estimated that lenders may lose up to $2.1 to 3.8 trillion before all the bad loans are taken off their books. According to the MBA, mortgage application volume increased from last week. The FHFA reports that Orange County home values increased by 6.38 percent in 2009. Last year, nearly 1,400 lawsuits were filed against lenders by homeowners in foreclosure.

In The News:

Press Enterprise“Loan losses from home foreclosures could more than double” (3-3-10)

“Lenders who already have realized $1.5 trillion in losses due to home foreclosures could see their losses mount to an estimated $2.1 trillion to $3.8 trillion before all the bad loans are wiped off their books, a Riverside real estate expert told a gathering over the weekend. Bruce Norris, a real estate analyst, investor and principal of the Riverside-based Norris Group, told more than 400 real estate brokers and investors meeting in Costa Mesa Saturday that he had compiled these figures from data and estimates he obtained from ForeclosureRadar.com, Bloomberg Financial, Goldman Sachs, the International Monetary Fund, RGE Monitor and T2Partners.”

Mortgage Bankers AssociationMortgage Refinance Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey” (3-3-10)

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 26, 2010.  The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 14.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.  On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 15.5 percent compared with the previous week.”

Orange County Register – “O.C.: Hottest U.S. housing market?” (3-3-10)

“Orange County home values — by one FHFA index that derives values from purchase records — rose 6.38% in 2009. That’s tops among the 25 major U.S. markets tracked by this methodology. Yes, O.C. is No. 1! We’re followed by Denver (+5.48%); Houston (+3.71%); and Pittsburgh (+3.26%).”

Sign On San Diego“Hefty tax bill may hit those who lost home” (3-3-10)

“With less than six weeks before taxes are due, an estimated 16,000 former homeowners statewide will owe $15 million in extra income taxes this year and $29 million through 2012.”

Mercury News“Increasing numbers of Californians are suing lenders to avoid foreclosures” (3-3-10)

In the last five years, the number of foreclosure lawsuits filed in federal court in California has ballooned — like an exploding adjustable-rate mortgage — from only 29 statewide in 2005 to nearly 1,400 last year.”

Housing WireWinter Weather Slows Residential Real Estate Growth: Beige Book” (3-3-10)

“In the January Beige Book, all but two Fed districts reported increased activity or improved conditions, with Philadelphia and Richmond seeing mixed results. Residential real estate markets remained weak or softened further in the New York, Atlanta, and Chicago districts and there was little change in the San Francisco district, the Federal Reserve Board said.”

Orange County Register – “Why loan mods & short sales take so long” (3-3-10)

“Hard to collect all necessary documents from borrower/owner. This may be because the banks never seem to receive the documents until they’ve been faxed in 5 or 6 times. It may be because it takes the borrower/owner or agent some time to respond to requests for documents.”

Inman - “90% of agents down on HAMP” (3-3-10)

“A mere 10 percent of real estate agents think the Obama administration’s Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) is reducing foreclosures in their market, according to a survey released Wednesday by real estate media and marketing provider Homes and Land. The company’s Market Pulse Survey Report asked more than 100,000 real estate agents nationwide to participate in a 10-question survey to gauge the state of housing in local markets. Nearly 5,800 agents responded; 51 percent had been a Realtor for more than 10 years. The company conducted the survey in February.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, Citigroup developed a plan which allowed unemployed homeowners to decrease their monthly payment to a minimum of $500. The NAR reported that home sales decreased by 7.7 percent within a month’s time. Bernanke claimed that the federal government needed to increase its fiscal involvement in the banking system. The government launched its $1 trillion TALF program.

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 2/22/10

Monday, February 22nd, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

Moody’s reports that commercial property prices increased by 4.1 percent in December. A survey shows that 87 percent of homebuilders expect to lose money due to the new FHA guidelines. According to Campbell Surveys, short sales accounted for 15.9% of home purchases in January. Janet Yellen predicts that the U.S. economy will perform below potential throughout this year and the next.

In The News:

Los Angeles Times“IRS issues new guidelines on obtaining home buyer tax credits” (2-21-10)

“Despite blizzards that shut federal offices for days, the Internal Revenue Service issued new guidance Feb. 12 on the two tax credit programs that are powering the country’s real estate markets — the $6,500 credit for repeat buyers and the $8,000 first-time buyer credit. The new IRS policy clarified documentation that taxpayers need to submit to successfully obtain either credit. When Congress revised the credit programs in November, it ordered the IRS to tighten its rules and monitoring to curtail widespread frauds that had emerged earlier in 2009.”

Sacramento Bee“Schwarzenegger proclaims `the worst is over’ for California” (2-21-10)

“Despite the state’s high unemployment rate, California’s economy is making a slow comeback and ‘the worst is over,’ Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger said today.”

Housing Wire“Commercial Real Estate Prices Up as Foreclosures Threaten Recovery” (2-22-10)

“US commercial real estate prices as measured by Moody’s Investors Service/Real Estate Analytics, Commercial Property Price Indices (CPPI) increased for the second month in a row in December, rising 4.1%, as the commercial real estate (CRE) market continues to face several challenges, such as the rising tide of defaults and subsequent foreclosures.”

Housing Wire“Homebuilders Expect FHA Changes to Hurt Sales” (2-22-10)

“However, 87% of builders surveyed said they expect to lose sales due to new FHA guidelines. Half of the builders surveyed expect to lose 10% or more of sales. As HousingWire reported in January, the FHA raised insurance fees and down payments for borrowers with lower credit scores to address the FHA’s capital reserve ratio, which fell below the Congressionally mandated 2% threshold. Borrowers with a FICO score of less than 580 are now required to make a 10% down payment, up from the previous 3.5% down payment. In addition, seller concessions have been cut in half to 3%, from 6% and mortgage insurance fee at closing increased from 175 bps to 226 bps.”

Housing Wire“Governors See Bad Economic Times Getting Worse for States” (2-22-10)

“General fund spending among the states dropped 3.4% in 2009 and 5.4% in 2010, based on enacted budgets. The only other annual decline in state spending occurred in 1983, when it dropped 0.7%.”

Housing Wire“Survey Finds Short Sales Outnumber REO in January Purchases” (2-22-10)

“Short sales accounted for 15.9% of home purchases in January, surpassing the share of other distressed property activity, when real estate owned (REO) properties are measured separately, according to a monthly Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance (IMF) survey of more than 1,500 real estate agents, conducted by Campbell Surveys.”

Bloomberg - “Yellen Says U.S. Economy Will Perform Below Potential” (2-22-10)

“Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Janet Yellen said the U.S. economy will operate below potential this year and next and still needs low interest rates to gain strength. “

Tip of the iceberg by Bruce Norris, An Introduction in Parts

Friday, February 5th, 2010

By request we have broken up the introduction into smaller pieces so viewing is faster.  In these four video sections, Bruce Norris discusses his upcoming California market timing udpate, Tip of the Iceberg. Tip of the Iceberg explores micro trends in California and helps prepare real estate professionals for the years ahead. Some of the conclusions might surprise you!

To register for the seminar, visit our event portion of the website http://www.thenorrisgroup.com/training/tip-of-the-iceberg

Who should attend: investors, Realtors, mortgage professionals, and market timing nerds (you know who you are).

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 1/12/10

Tuesday, January 12th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

The Federal Reserve made $46.1 billion last year. The MBA predicts that mortgage originations will decline by 39 percent in 2010. According to Integrated Asset Services, national home prices fell by 0.3 percent in November of 2009. FHA reports that foreclosure starts on mortgages from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac decreased by 15 percent from the second quarter to the third quarter of 2009.

In The News:

Los Angeles Times“Fed’s reaction to crisis helps deliver record $46.1-billion profit” (1-12-10)

“The Federal Reserve today announced it made a record $46.1-billion profit last year, countering concerns that the central bank has put too much taxpayer money at risk in attempts to stabilize the financial industry.”

Housing Wire“MBA Expects Mortgage Originations to Fall 40% in 2010″ (1-12-10)

“The mortgage finance industry will likely see a continued slow-down in 2010 as unemployment remains high and home sales slide, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said Tuesday at a media briefing over the state of the real estate industry. The MBA projected total mortgage origination on residential one- to four-family properties is likely to plummet to $1.28trn in all of 2010, from $2.11trn in all of 2009. The projection marks a 39% decline in total mortgage origination in 2010.”

Housing Wire“MetLife to Provide Reverse Mortgage Program for ABA Banks” (1-12-10)

“The American Bankers Association (ABA) partnered with MetLife Home Loans to provide member banks a reverse mortgage program. Banks provide reverse mortgages to let homeowners convert their home into cash and can allow older borrowers to supplement social security, meet medical expenses and make home improvements.”

Housing Wire“Tax Refund Gives KB Homes $100m Q4 Profit” (1-12-10)

“A tax return from profits earned during the housing bubble put KB Home (KBH: 15.72 -4.03%) in positive net profit territory in its fiscal year Q409 that ended Nov. 30. Excluding a $191.7m tax refund, KB Home would have lost $91m in the quarter, but instead posted a $100.7m, or $1.31 per share, net profit. With or without the tax refund, the quarter’s results are better than the $307.3m loss in Q408.”

Housing Wire“IAS Price Index Dips on Declines in Northeast, Midwest” (1-12-10)

“The Integrated Asset Services (IAS) index of national house shows prices fell 0.3% in November, the collateral valuation and management services firm said. That’s better than the 0.5% decline in prices the index experienced in October and the 0.6% decrease in September.”

Housing Wire“Sellers Cut Listing Prices on 21% of Homes: Trulia” (1-12-10)

“As of Jan. 1, 2010, sellers cut listing prices on 21% of homes currently on the US market, according to the real estate site, Trulia.com.”

Bloomberg - “U.S. Subpoenas 15 FHA Lenders With High Mortgage Defaults” (1-12-10)

“The U.S. Housing and Urban Development Department said it subpoenaed 15 mortgage companies today to seek out possible fraud in an effort to stem losses on loans insured by the Federal Housing Administration. HUD officials, who oversee the FHA mortgage insurance program, said they haven’t haven’t found any evidence of wrongdoing at the lenders, and were singling out those with the highest default rates.”

Bloomberg - “Life Insurers to Sidestep CMBS Losses, Barclays Says” (1-12-10)

“U.S. life insurers, a group led by MetLife Inc. and Prudential Financial Inc., will sidestep losses on investments tied to commercial mortgages, said Eric Berg, an analyst with Barclays Plc. ”

Bloomberg - “PMI Drops After Goldman Sachs Sell Recommendation” (1-12-10)

“PMI Group Inc., the third-largest U.S. mortgage insurer, fell the most in five months after a Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analyst said he expects more losses as foreclosures increase.”

Inman - “More loans going bad, but more get help” (1-12-10)

“More homeowners fell behind on their payments during the third quarter of 2009, but fewer were funneled into the foreclosure process as loan servicers engaged in more loan workouts, modifications and short sales, according to a new report. Foreclosure starts on loans guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac fell 15 percent from the second quarter to the third quarter, the Federal Housing Finance Agency said in its quarterly Foreclosure Prevention and Refinance Report.”

Orange County Register“Housing market warming up in south coast?” (1-12-10)

“In a typically slow quarter for real estate, all three south coast cities saw their expected market time speed up a bit, according to a biweekly report by Steven Thomas of Altera Real Estate. Two weeks ago, it would have taken an expected 6.86 months to sell all of Dana Point’s active home stock, which has sped up slightly to an expected 5.16 months.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, some economists estimated that the Modesto, Stockton, Bakersfield, Riverside and Sacramento housing markets would take the longest to recover. President Bush requested the remaining $350 billion of the financial rescue, and handed his economic authority to Barack Obama. Distressed home sales in Orange County decreased by 7.2 percent.

156-TNG Radio – Randy Grigg 1-9-10

Friday, January 8th, 2010

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Elite Auctions

Randy Grigg

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This week Bruce is joined by Randy Grigg. Randy is the president of Elite Auctions. He spent 30 years as a pest management consultant, and gained a large portfolio of rental properties during that time.

Bruce begins by asking how Randy’s auction properties get purchased, and what the sellers’ perspective is towards their property values. Randy is soon going to have his largest auction. He has two trustee sale buyers that his company is working with. These two people have 50 unsold properties in their inventory. Most of their properties are lower quality houses. Right now, nice properties in nice areas have more demand. Bruce has noticed that trustee sale properties are typically cleaner than REOs, but the trustee properties that Randy will soon sell are in moderate condition. Some of them are beat up, but their landscaping is still in decent condition.

Many trustee sales are still occupied when the sale takes place. Bruce has noticed there is a common perception that these occupants are beating up the property, but he does not believe this is generally the truth.

Randy has typically been a low volume auctioneer. There are 4 nice properties that he will be selling at his next auction. His two clients will be selling 22 properties with him. This auction will be taking place at the end of January.

The trustee sale business is a highly competitive market, and most of the competitors are educated investors. There is also a much smaller range of profit to be gained in a trustee sale, and this profit can easily be lost in overhead costs. Trustee investors will often buy at 80 to 85 percent of market value with all cash. This is the model that The Norris Group uses, but in order to do that, you must be very good at minimizing expenses. Sometimes a trustee buyer has access to a property on the day he buys it. This allows trustee buyers to quickly plan for selling through methods like auctions.

Advertising has changed since Randy began his auction business. In the past, Randy had to spend $8,000 per house, because the print advertising is very expensive. Recently, people have started searching for properties through the internet. This has made it much cheaper for Randy’s business. His business posts properties to about 100 websites, and then sends emails to 100,000 Realtors.

Bruce once tried selling his properties through auctions, but he discovered that it took a lot of effort. He tried advertising his properties using street signs, and it did not work well. Bruce thinks that he has never worked harder than the 45 day period he spent trying to set up his real estate auction.

When Randy heard that The Norris Group was going to try doing real estate auctions, he was worried at first. Fortunately for his business, it is not as easy as most people think to begin an auction business, and most people eventually fail. There is a costly learning curve that is required for setting up a good auctioning business model. Randy lost 20 percent on his properties when he first started, but that process of trying and failing helped him to learn. There are many ways in which an auction can fail to have a good result. The first phone call that a potential buyer makes can completely lose their interest if they do not receive the proper response. Many people call on auction ads, and they receive a recording.

Bruce attended an auction one year ago in which 93 stilted duplexes were being sold. The sellers had placed their ads in the wrong place of the L.A. Times. Bruce tried calling the company, but all he got was a recording. By the time he arrived at the auction, the seller was closing the gates. Bruce talked to the seller and he discovered that he was the only person who had ever showed up to this auction.

Randy’s auctions are held in front of the home being auctioned. He has to analyze each house individually in order to understand what kind of buyer he wants to attract. If he wants an owner occupant buyer, he always advertises the phrase “45 days to close”. He also tells buyers that if they can close within 30 days then the sellers will agree to pay their escrow fees. The escrow fees are $400, but the cost of holding the home for two weeks is much more. Randy offers a 45 day closing, a free home warranty, and a guaranteed clear title. A home warranty does not cover foundation problems, but it does help relieve some of the buyer’s concerns. People often worry that they will not have a clear title when they buy a property from an auction, so Randy always mentions that they will.

Randy does not invest much time in open houses for his auctions, because he has discovered that establishing urgency is the key. He has a two hour, two day open house which takes place on the weekend. The auctions always take place within the working week.

The key to getting a potential buyer to come to an auction is to make them feel comfortable with the process. Randy usually has a mortgage broker present at the sale. If the buyer has not been prequalified, he encourages them to do so. He tells them that an auction sale is just like a normal transaction except they get to choose their price. You have to make people believe that they can get a good deal at an auction. Randy also offers a cash prize for people who guess what the final auctioning price will be. Their guesses allow Randy to more adequately gauge a property’s true market value. Randy does not hold auctions on the weekend, because holding auctions during the week attracts more serious buyers.

Randy has discovered that his quality buyers in Bakersfield discover his auctions through paper advertisements, because there are a lot of people who read the news there. However, buyers from other areas typically discover Randy’s auctions through the internet. Knowing where your audience comes from will help you to know how to advertise.

Bruce asks Randy what he considers to be a safe number of bidders in each auction. Randy has found that his auctions do better when there are not a lot of bidders. When lots of bidders come, they become more competitive and over price the property. Unfortunately, the high bidder often realizes 3 weeks later that he does not want the property, because he will pay too much. Randy’s typical preference for an auction is 5 to 10 buyers. Having fewer bidders will cause the property to sell closer to market value, and it will more likely be a successful sale. High bids might make clients happy, but if their property does not finish the selling process, then the selling value does not matter.

When Bruce has sold his properties through auction, most of his failures came as a result of defects in the property’s location and condition. Sometimes Bruce’s own selling expectations have brought about his auction failures. Sellers must have reasonable expectations for their selling prices.

There have been occasions when Bruce though his house would sell at a low value, but ended up selling for a much higher value. It is hard to predict what will happen at an auction.

When Bruce tried to hold his own auction, the only house that sold was the one in the worst condition. Two of his houses were priced very highly, and one of his potential buyers could not get financing. Bruce asks Randy if the property’s condition is a major factor in whether or not a house will sell. Randy usually makes minor repairs on his auction properties. He tries to make his properties better than the average REOs in that area. Bruce thinks that is a very smart decision. Bruce made many repairs and upgrades to his properties, but this caused trouble with appraisals, because his homes were in much better condition than the comps in his market.

Randy’s son Mike enjoys working as the president of the California Auction Association. He is still on the board for the CAA. Mike won the bid-calling contest this year for the CAA. He prefers doing charity auctions, because there are a lot of items, and that makes his job more fun.

If you are interested in doing auctions with Randy, his website is www.sellwithauction.com, and his office number is 661-325-6500.

The number for Elite Auction is 661-325-6500, and their website is www.sellwithauction.com

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 1/7/10

Thursday, January 7th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

Home equity delinquencies increased to 4.3 percent of all accounts. Many construction companies reported an increase in profit during the 4th quarter of 2009. REIS Inc. reports that U.S. apartment vacancies rose to 8 percent last quarter. According to Freddie Mac, mortgage rates decreased to 5.09 percent from last week.

In The News:

Housing Wire“Lennar Posts Quarterly Profit, Expects $320M Tax Refund” (1-7-09)

“Miami-based homebuilder Lennar (LEN: 15.70 +14.60%) reported net earnings of $35.6m, $0.19 per share, for its fiscal year fourth quarter that ended Nov. 30 and said it will receive a tax refund of $320m as a result of legislation that temporarily allowed companies to recoup losses from taxes paid in profitable years.”

Housing Wire“Invesco Mortgage Capital Planning Another Share Sale” (1-7-09)

“Seeing a growing appetite for deals from investors, Invesco Mortgage Capital (IVR: 22.37 -2.10%), a real estate investment trust (REIT), plans to offer 7m shares of its common stock for sale in order to fund the acquisition of residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities (RMBS and CMBS) and leveraged mortgage loans.”

Housing Wire“Delinquency Grows in Home Equity Loans, Lines of Credit: ABA” (1-7-09)

“Housing-related loans continued to show stress. Home equity loan delinquencies hit another record in the quarter, jumping 29 bps to 4.3% of all accounts. Home equity lines of credit rose 20 bps to 2.12% of all accounts. Mobile home delinquencies increased to 3.63% of all accounts, from 3.53% the previous quarter.”

Housing Wire“Beazer to Offer 18m Shares, $50m in Convertible Debt” (1-7-09)

“Beazer Homes (BZH: 5.06 +6.08%) will issue new common stock and convertible subordinate debt, the Atlanta-based homebuilder said in a pair of Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filings. According to the filings, Beazer will issue 18m shares of common stock and $50m in convertible subordinate debt which will convert to stock shares in 2013.”

Bloomberg - “Job Growth Erodes as Housing Bust Pushes Mobility to Record Low” (1-7-09)

“Some households are staying put because they owe more on their mortgages than their properties are worth; others have trouble selling houses in depressed areas, economists say. The S&P/Case-Shiller composite index of home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas was down 29 percent in October from its July 2006 peak.”

Bloomberg - “Principal Cuts on Lender Menus as Foreclosures Rise” (1-7-09)

“While interest-rate reductions or extending loan terms reduce homeowners’ monthly payments, they don’t give much comfort to borrowers who owe more on their homes than their properties are worth. Borrowers who don’t have equity in their homes are more likely to hand over the keys when they run into trouble.”

Bloomberg - “Lennar Leads Builders Higher on Report of Unexpected Profit” (1-7-09)

“Lennar Corp. led U.S. homebuilders higher after the company reported an unexpected quarterly profit as it took advantage of a tax change in the way it accounts for land sales. A Standard & Poor’s measure of 12 home construction companies rose as much as 5.4 percent, the most since November. Lennar climbed as much as 13 percent. KB Home, M/I Homes Inc., Toll Brothers Inc. and D.R. Horton Inc. all gained.”

Bloomberg - “Mortgage Rates on 30-Year U.S. Loans Fall to 5.09%” (1-7-09)

“Mortgage rates in the U.S. fell for the first time in five weeks, lowering borrowing costs and offering a boost to potential buyers. The rate for 30-year fixed U.S. home loans fell to 5.09 percent for the week ended today from 5.14 percent, mortgage finance company Freddie Mac said. Rates hit a record low 4.71 percent the week of Dec. 3. This week’s average 15-year rate was 4.50 percent, Freddie Mac said in today’s statement. ”

Bloomberg - “Record U.S. Apartment Vacancies Force Landlords to Cut Rents” (1-7-09)

“U.S. apartment vacancies rose to a record 8 percent in the fourth quarter and rents fell the most in three decades as unemployment cut demand, according to Reis Inc.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported that mortgage applications were decreasing. Statistics from Default Research showed that foreclosures and defaults had significantly increased across California. Apartment rents fell and vacancy rates increased to a 4 year high. Freddie Mac reported that mortgage rates fell for the 9th week in a row.

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 1/4/09

Monday, January 4th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

Forty percent of national home sales in 2009 were foreclosures or short sales. Economists and real estate experts are complaining that Obama’s $75 billion foreclosure prevention program has damaged the market. The CIRB reports that builder permits for single-family houses fell 3.5 percent. According to The Institute for Supply Management, most companies showed an increased rate of expansion in December.

In The News:

San Francisco Chronicle“Foreclosures weigh on home appraisals” (1-4-09)

“Roughly 40 percent of all home sales this year were foreclosures or short sales, meaning the property sold for less than the mortgage. In some markets, like Las Vegas and Phoenix, they’ve hit more than 50 percent.”

New York Times“U.S. Loan Effort Is Seen as Adding to Housing Woes” (1-4-09)

“The Obama administration’s $75 billion program to protect homeowners from foreclosure has been widely pronounced a disappointment, and some economists and real estate experts now contend it has done more harm than good.”

Market Watch“Low rates didn’t cause bubble, Bernanke says” (1-3-09)

“it was lax supervision of toxic mortgages by the Fed and other bank regulators — along with excessive flows of capital around the globe — that inflated the bubble, setting up the world economy for what may have been the worst economic crisis in modern history, Bernanke said.”

Bloomberg - “GMAC Said to Discuss U.S. Aid Package of $3 Billion or More” (1-4-09)

“GMAC Inc., the home and auto lender that counts the U.S. government as the largest stakeholder, is discussing with the Obama administration a third bailout of $3 billion to $4 billion, said a person familiar with the matter.”

Bloomberg - “Companies in U.S. Expand at Fastest Pace Since 2006″ (1-4-09)

“Companies in the U.S. expanded in December at the fastest pace in almost four years, signaling the economic recovery is gaining speed heading into 2010. The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc. said today its barometer rose to 60, exceeding the most optimistic estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and the highest level since January 2006. The gauge, in which readings greater than 50 signal expansion, showed companies boosted production and employment as orders climbed.”

Orange County Register“Did housing’s troubles double?” (1-4-09)

“Well, things don’t look so harsh when your spyglass is 10 years long and short-run bumps and bruises are smoothed out. The median selling price for all residences in Orange County in the Zeros was $431,000, roughly double the pricing of the 1990s.”

Orange County Register“O.C. builders near worst year since WW II” (1-4-09)

“Through November, local building permits for single-family homes filed by developers fell 3.5% from what had been the slowest year since World War II, the Construction Industry Research Board reports.”

155-TNG Radio – Randy Grigg 1-2-10

Saturday, January 2nd, 2010

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Elite Auctions

Randy Grigg

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This week Bruce is joined by Randy Grigg. Randy is the president of Elite Auctions. He spent 30 years as a pest management consultant, and gained a large portfolio of rental properties during that time.

Bruce begins by asking Randy what gave him the idea that real estate was a good investment. Randy read a book by Mark Hearld which persuaded him that he could make big money in real estate. Bruce also owns Mark’s book, and he believes Mark did a good job at marketing it. Randy also received some training from Jack Miller in 1983. He started buying a couple properties in 1976.

Randy had a very slow method for buying real estate. He had a career when he started, and he continued investing as he continued his education. His beginning goal was simply to break even on his net cash flow. He always used the seller to produce the financing, because he did not want to frequently use the bank. That is very different from how Bruce got financing. Bruce thinks that, in the future, sellers will have to be more willing to carry paper for financing.

When he first started, Randy attracted offers through Realtors. Randy would make approximately 20 offers per week. Doing this, he would get one to three properties every year. Later on, he started using ads as his primary source for getting deals. Eventually, he also used letters to neighborhoods he wanted to buy in.

Bruce also used ads for quite some time, and it gave him a great education in dealing with people. He eventually learned what kinds of people were or were not worth his time. He also learned some patience, as he had to sit through 100 calls before he would get the 1 call he wanted. At one time, Bruce would not make deals unless he could personally meet the seller. He only had so much time for doing this, so he became very efficient.

What is interesting about Randy’s and Bruce’s philosophy is that Randy kept his, and Bruce sold his. Bruce believes that Randy’s philosophy for buying worked better. Bruce sold properties for profit, but Randy kept his properties for income. Randy learned this philosophy because the area he invests in (Bakersfield) does not have much price inflation. Mike Cantu has a similar buying philosophy and he is also happy about his outcome. Bruce has learned from Mike and Randy, and now he also keeps properties as rentals. Bruce feels that having rental properties helps his decision making process. People who have cash flow above their expenses do not have to make risky decisions. If you own 15 rental properties, you will be provided with a nice and steady lifestyle.

Randy and Mike started their auction company 8 years ago. It was easy for Randy to buy homes, but he did not like the unpredictable aspect of selling. Randy attended a public auction in his neighborhood, in which he tried to buy a property, but the people attending out bid him. This taught Randy that auctioning was an effective tool for determining a property’s market value, so he decided to sell his homes in auctions. He had a lot of trouble using auctions when he first started. He sometimes lost 20 percent of his equity on a sold property. He slowly learned how to better set up his auctions, and he discovered new ways to attract the buyers he was looking for. In 2004 to 2006, Randy’s typical seller was someone who wanted to capitalize on the appreciation that occurred during that time.

Bruce feels that most people do not think of auctions as a good way to maximize your selling price, but it is. When you sell homes in an auction, you place all of your potential buyers in direct competition with each other.

In 2004 to 2006, Randy’s typical buyer was either a speculator who thought that prices would increase forever, or an owner occupant. At that time, Bruce noticed that people were desperate to buy property. People were not concerned as much with appraisal values.

In 2009, Randy’s selling clients were people who had a better understanding of the cost of selling. During the downturn, some people felt that if they did not sell their home quickly, then they would lose the opportunity to.

Selling a property is not an easy or guaranteed to happen. Being in escrow does not mean that your sale will surely finish. In 2007 to 2008, if you had a 60 day escrow that didn’t finish, then somebody made you lose 5 percent. In 2009, selling was not as problematic, but it was still difficult for people to qualify for a purchase.

When people put money down in an auction, there is a better chance that the sale will close. If buyers cannot finish a sale, then Randy splits that down payment with his selling client.

In 2009, 25 percent of auction buyers paid with cash, and 75 percent paid with conventional loans with large down payments. Randy only had one FHA buyer in 2009. Sixty percent of his buyers are long term investors, and about forty percent are parents who are buying homes for their children or owner occupants. Bruce thinks that is amazing. Randy’s auctions sell for an average of 107 percent of comp value.

In 2010, conventional loan providers may change their policies to match FHA. Wells Fargo changed their seasoning policies, not long ago.

2009 ended much differently than Bruce envisioned, because many rules changed. The HVCC and the 91 day FHA selling rule made it difficult for Bruce to sell. Because of this, his business shifted from FHA inventory to conventional inventory. At the beginning of the year, Bruce was buying properties for 60 grand in the beginning of the year, but after June, he started buying properties for 250 grand, and selling them for 350 grand. Those more expensive properties were much cleaner properties, and they were easier to sell. This change made Bruce feel like he had died and gone to heaven. This experience has taught Bruce to have flexibility. When rule changes force you to change your business plan, there is always another way to make money.

In 2010, Bruce estimates there will be “big dollar” foreclosures. Randy is beginning to see Bruce’s estimation come to life more and more. For example, in Riverside, an 8,000 sq. ft. home, in a nice area, was being sold with $1.7 million worth of financing. The owner lost this property at a trustee sale. The opening bid at the trustee sale was 608 grand but there were no bidders. This property is now listed for 525 grand. It is $1,100,000 less than any other property on that street, and it is not pending. The problem is that people cannot get financing for these homes. This may be the next market for Randy, and he would be happy to deal with these expensive properties, because he earns a lot more per sale with expensive homes. His income has decreased dramatically because home prices have greatly decreased. Realtors have also experienced a great decrease in their income because of these price decreases.

Randy bought properties in 2009. 85 percent of these homes were bought through other auction companies who do not have selling models which maximize sale prices. The rest of them have been bought from private sellers and banks. These low-price auction companies deal with large sums of properties, so they do not spend as much time properly valuing them. Randy’s company sells fewer properties, so he has more time to properly maximize his sale values.

The number for Elite Auction is 661-325-6500, and their website is www.sellwithauction.com

154-TNG Radio – Cantu and Alvarez 12-26-09

Wednesday, December 23rd, 2009

Mike-Cantu

Mike Cantu

Investor

 

Tony-Alvarez

Tony Alvarez

Investor

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This week Bruce is joined by Mike Cantu and Tony Alvarez. Both of them are very successful California real estate investors.

At the end of 2006, Mike made a list of people that he thought would be out of business in a short period of time. Later he discovered that his predictions were true. Bruce asks what was wrong with their business plan that caused them to fail. Mike said that these people did not know how to adapt to market change. They had unsustainable lifestyles. They were spending between $10,000 to $20,000 dollars per month, and that lifestyle ultimately brought them down during the rough times. Many had negative cash flow on their investments, they were too optimistic, and they were speculating too much. Some people have a hard time understanding the difference between speculators and investors. Mike labels himself an investor in the rental market, and he labels himself a real estate entrepreneur in the buy/sell business. In the late 1980s, people were speculating how high prices would go, and they thought prices were going to keep going up, and many of them were hurt badly. Mike has a much more conservative business plan than those people.

When Bruce and Tony met in 2003, he was considering leaving the real estate market. Bruce made a list of similarities and differences between Tony and Mike. Tony chose to unload his properties, but Mike did not, and both of them are very happy with their outcomes. Tony had a variety of properties, and he felt that his assets would be more difficult to manage. He was also facing high taxes, so he chose to 1031 exchange into commercial property. He had a good friend who was involved in the building of shopping centers, so he had the right relationships to make good commercial deals.

When Mike saw properties go up in 2006, he chose to hold onto his properties, and he is still proud of his decision. Mike wanted to have enough rental income to live life on his terms. After he made his big mistake, he just wanted to have one more chance to achieve his goal of freedom, and he didn’t want to take the risk of losing it. He realized that he had everything he had hoped to obtain, so he felt no need to trade his properties for more money. He also realized that if he decided to sell his properties then he would eventually choose to reinvest that money back into real estate. He already had all the real estate he needed, so he just decided to keep it. However, he has made upgrades on the properties that he owns. He traded his lower quality houses for good houses in good neighborhoods. These houses take care of him, and now he feels that the rest of his life is an open book because those homes take care of all his expenses.

Bruce has watched people made desperate decisions over the last few years. He met one man who had $16 million worth in real estate, $12 million of debt, and $30 thousand dollars of negative cash flow. Bruce knew that this man had $4 million in equity, but he was very glad that he was not in the same position. That man lost a lot of what he had. Decisions made in desperation don’t work out very well. The philosophy of buying, holding and paying off assets saves you from making desperate decisions.

Bruce asks Tony what he would do if he had lost everything and he had to restart from scratch. Tony did a little experiment in which he asked himself, “What would I do if I was starting from nothing in San Diego.” It took him 2 days to analyze everything in the MLS, and use the same concepts he teaches in his books. He called agents and did not tell him that he was an investor. The agents quickly decided to work with him.

Tony received a negative response from an investor who had attended his classes. This investor told Tony that he had been working in San Diego, because there was no opportunity there. He told Tony that he could not get a deal. Not long after that, Tony got an email from two men in their twenties. They had done 8 deals within the last 12 months and gained about $200,000. Tony discovered that they only $1,000 dollars to start out with.

Tony tells Bruce that if he had to start over, he would take whatever resources he had and go back to the Antelope Valley. He would use his knowledge about real estate to do exactly what he had done before. He would look for inventory that would provide him with positive cash flow.

Bruce noted that both Mike and Tony have a sense of humor. Bruce thinks that Mike’s humor has been a big part of his success. Mike has zero expectations from his close friends, but he wants to have a good laugh every day. He does not want to take life too seriously. Bruce’s business involves taking peoples’ expectations down from the sky, and bringing it to earth.  Bruce and Tony both enjoy a show call “The Pawn Shop.” Bruce noticed that there are three negotiating types displayed in the three characters. There is one character with a good sense of humor, and he easily gets people to reduce their prices by making sellers laugh.

If Mike was starting from scratch, he would hunt for a partner with money and credit. He would present a detailed plan to this partner, and continue learning about the investment that he wants to get involved in. He would do his best to become an asset to his partner rather than a liability.

Tony made a partner out of a hard money lender. He was just coming out of bankruptcy, but he was able to show the lender what he had going for him. He showed the lender his knowledge and ability to find deals. He had a mindset that he was going to walk out of the lender’s office with money.

Bruce asks Mike who his important mentors have been, because he has spent a lot of time getting an education. Mike feels fortunate that his first mentor was Mick Blackwell. He was not an easy man to do business with, or getting along with, but he pushed Mike very hard to do his best. Mick’s usual response to anything Mike did for him was, “Is that the best you can do?” This made Mike want to do his best to impress Mick. Mick also lived very conservatively. His wife has a lot of nice things, but Mick could be satisfied with a trailer in his backyard.

Tony considers his first two mentors to be his mom and dad. His dad encouraged Tony to integrate into American society. His dad taught him to be persistent and to do hard work. His mother taught him how to negotiate and build relationships. They did not have money to go to Catholic school, but Tony’s mother negotiated the school leader to let them in for free. Tony’s first business mentor was Victor Ayela. Victor told Tony that appraisers were making a fortune, and that he would be crazy not to learn about that business. Tony learned negotiating skills from a liquor buyer named Al Rudolph. Tony learned a lot about business integrity from a man named Joe Germaine. Many of his mentors were not in real estate. Most of the people that Tony enjoys doing business with are people who are true to their word, and they look for solutions to problems rather than let themselves be absorbed by problems.

Bruce believes that Tony, Mike and himself are going to be some of the main trainers for the next generation, and he takes that very seriously, because he was given the opportunity to learn from people like Jack Miller. Bruce remembers that he is the example for the next generation. Mike has always felt that he has an obligation to give back because of the help he received from other people. Mike wants to leave the better place than the way he entered it. He feels that it is very rewarding to help other people, and he enjoys the notes he gets in the mail about the way he has affected other peoples’ lives.

It was not easy for Mike to transition into his role as a teacher. The first time he was going to give a public speech, he threw up from his jitters and he considered bolting, but he felt very good after he gave his speech.

Thank you Mike and Tony for taking the time to do the interview. Happy holidays for those reading. Look forward to more interviews in 2010!

153-TNG Radio – Cantu and Alvarez 12-19-09

Friday, December 18th, 2009

Mike-Cantu

Mike Cantu

Investor

 

Tony-Alvarez

Tony Alvarez

Investor

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This week Bruce is joined by real estate investors Mike Cantu and Tony Alvarez.

Tony started working in the real estate industry in 1981. He became an appraiser, and then started buying houses in Burbank. He eventually went on to invest in apartments and other types of real estate. Tony believes that what really gave him an edge in the business was his training as an appraiser. If you look at the front part of an appraisal form, it gives you all the information you need to focus your attention on.

Mike Cantu became attracted to the real estate business after watching a late night infomercial. The infomercial was about a surfer who claimed that he went from being a 20-year-old loser to a millionaire in a year. Mike Cantu believed the infomercial and decided to pursue real estate as a career. That night he took some notes and he created a list of goals. He and his friend Chuck went to a free promotional seminar. After going to the seminar, he revised those goals substantially upwards. His first goal was very modest; it was to pay the 40 dollar balance on his retread tires at J&J Tires.

People being trained by Bruce are viewing his finished project and it is very intimidating, because they cannot even imagine owning one of his properties. Bruce asks Mike how important it is to escape reality and set goals for future desires. Mike believes that goal-setting is the most important part of investment. Without a plan and goals you will wander aimlessly. Mike is a very goal oriented person. He has a stack of goal labeled cards which he reviews daily. Mike described a Harvard study in which a graduating class was interviewed. They tracked down that graduating class 20 years later, and they found that 3 percent of the graduates had set long term goals, and that 3 percent had a combined net worth that was greater than the other 97 percent.

Bruce asks Tony when he began to set goals for becoming wealthy, and actually believed he could do it. Tony began to set goals after his first bad experience in the 80s. His initial goal, after coming out of bankruptcy in 1993, was to get to 1 million dollars and 10,000 dollars a month in income. That was a big deal for him because he did not even have a car at that time, and he was working at Shakeys. His income eventually reached 55,000 dollars a month. He made all that money by working with REO agents.

Freedom is what defines wealth for Mike. Wealth gives him the freedom to do what he wants and live life on his terms. Mike obtained his first level of freedom in 2000. He realized then that he had all the things he needed to pay of some of his debts. Mike once thought he was invincible and that he could avoid the mistakes that many other people made, and he was wrong. He often found himself taking three steps forward and two steps back, but he does not regret the mistakes he made, because he learned from them.

Tony was born in Cuba and his family immigrated to the New England area. He grew up very differently than the other people in his area, and the struggles he faced helped him to develop certain personality traits which he believes greatly helped him in his business. Tony never felt that he was poor even though he was not able to buy some of the things that other people had. Tony describes the wealth he has as his piece of mind. He does not have to get up and go to a job. He is not being forced to work for someone else every day without being able to control his destiny.

Bruce explains that feeling of control of his destiny and his family’s destiny. It does not feel good knowing that you do not have control of your family’s destiny, and to know that you cannot let them experience all the things you wanted them to. Tony warns that investors must be careful when they start feeling like they are free and clear. Mike tells everyone that there is always a way to screw up your plans. He has tried to dumb-proof his plans, which has lead him to investing in well located single-family houses with good schools and no debt on it.

Mike agrees with Tony’s definition of wealth. Mike believes there are three life currencies, which he calls money, time, and serenity. You can have the first two, but if you don’t have the third then the money and time is not very valuable. Once Mike gained his serenity, he realized that it was something he never wanted to let go of, and he works every day to maintain it.

In 1985 to 1989, people gained a great amount of equity. Bruce asks Mike how well they were doing during that time.  In the 80s, Mike was still learning to invest. He started his business in 1982. When the real estate market picked up, he started building houses and developing them. In 1987, he developed plans to become a big-time real estate developer. At that time, he did not understand that real estate has different cycles, and eventually he lost a lot of what he had gained.

Tony did very well during this same time period. He started as an appraiser because he wanted to invest. He learned a lot from banks, because he was able to look through all their files. He studied how banks qualified people, and he studied their top clients. He took that knowledge into his investing business. He also gained a lot of money by appraising for other investors. By the end of this cycle, he felt like quitting both sides of the business, because his work was all about the money and he was worn out. When he gained a large sum of money, he allowed someone else to handle his money for him, and he lost it all. When he went bankrupt, he had to walk home from the L.A. courthouse to Burbank. This gave him a lot of time to think about what he would not do the next time around.

After Mike’s bad run in building, he owned a lot of land, unfinished houses, a big subdivision, and a couple of unfinished condo projects. He learned from that experience that no matter how well you do, you can lose everything. Unfortunately, at that time he did not realize that you could also go negative, and dig a hole that takes time to get out of.

Not everyone chooses to dig themselves out of those sorts of problem. Some choose to walk away from their debts. Bruce has had people brag to him about how they own a rental that they haven’t made a payment on for 15 months. Mike considered the possibility of a corporate bankruptcy, but his partner encouraged him to pay off his debts. Bankruptcy decisions can hurt a lot of people other than the one declaring bankruptcy. It took Mike two years to take care of his debts, but everyone he was working with gained from his work, and he feels good about the decision he made.

It is very important to choose who you do business with. Mike suggests that you approach your search for a partner with the same seriousness that you would approach your search for a spouse. Mike has been approached for many partnership deals, but he accepts very few of them. He always asks his potential partners about how they are doing financially, because you do not want to let someone else’s bad decisions affect you.

The main less Tony learned from the down market in the early 90s was that he did not have to go into bankruptcy. Unfortunately, he did not realize this until later. Tony was given bankruptcy advice from an attorney, and he encouraged Tony to do it because he gained a fee from that decision. Tony warns that if you are chasing after deals out of fear for something, then you will eventually lose whatever you are making. When Toney came out of bankruptcy he learned to set goals. He was not so concerned with just making money, but with gaining his piece of mind. After he experienced bankruptcy, he came out with a better sense of who he was and what the ultimate purpose of his real estate business was.

Mike’s primary lesson from his downturn was that the bad times will not last forever. Everything will pass in time. He also learned the power of goals. He gained the determination to clean up the mess he had made. He also realized how important it is to figure out what you are really pursuing in life. Mike views real estate as a means to an end.

Bruce’s real estate experience has lead him to his passion, which is teaching. He enjoys the experience of calculating statistics that can be used to help other people. This discussion will continue next week. Mike and Tony will be back next week.