The Norris Group Blog

California Real Estate Headline Roundup

Posts Tagged ‘Rick Sharga’

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 10/20/09

Tuesday, October 20th, 2009

Today’s News Synopsis:

RealtyTrac’s Rick Sharga believes that approximately 450,000 to 500,000 repossessed properties have not yet been placed on the market. Default notices in California have decreased by 10.3 percent from the previous quarter and have increased by 18.5 percent from last year. The Commerce Department reports that housing and apartment construction increased by .5 percent from last month.

In The News:

RealtyTrac“The Case of the Missing REO Inventory” (10-20-09)

“With foreclosure activity breaking records nearly every month, where are all the REOs? It’s a fair question. In normal market situations, a bank will repossess a home and usually process it through to a listing agent to put on the MLS within 30 days. In a relatively short period of time, virtually every marketable REO property finds itself listed for sale on the local MLS. Today, that’s simply not the case; it’s likely that between 450,000 and 500,000 properties repossessed over the past year are still not on the market. And with buyers hungry for housing bargains, and agents and brokers champing at the bit ready to sell the properties, it begs for a reasonable answer.”

Broker Universe“FHA Changes May Make HVCC and AMCs Easier to Swallow” (10-20-09)

“However, Mr. Stern believes appraisal management companies are hiring appraisers based on price – appraisers who have little knowledge of local market conditions. ‘I don’t think it’s fair that AMCs are hiring the cheapest appraisers,’ he said. Lenders One, the National Association of Realtors and appraiser groups are hoping new appraisal policies recently adopted by the Federal Housing Administration will correct some of the problems associated with HVCC and AMCs.”

DQNews - “California Mortgage Defaults Trend Down Again” (10-20-09)

“A total of 111,689 default notices were sent out during the July-through-September period. That was down 10.3 percent from 124,562 for the prior quarter, and up 18.5 percent from 94,240 in third quarter 2008, according to San Diego-based MDA DataQuick”

Cleveland - “Feds to probe ‘walkaways’ by some mortgage lenders” (10-20-09)

” Federal investigators will scrutinize the practice of lenders or mortgage companies walking away from homes they have foreclosed on. The U.S. Government Accountability Office plans to delve into these so-called bank walkaways – something some consider an alarming trend in the foreclosure crisis”

Wall Street Journal“Home-Buyer Credit Is Focus of Inquiry” (10-20-09)

“The Internal Revenue Service is examining more than 100,000 suspicious claims for the first-time home-buyer tax break, another sign of potential trouble for the soon-to-expire program. The measure, adopted in February as part of the economic-stimulus bill, gives first-time buyers an $8,000 tax credit in an effort to boost sales and stimulate the moribund housing market. The program is set to end Nov. 30, but housing-industry leaders are lobbying Congress to extend it.”

Washington Post“Small firms, home buyers to get a boost” (10-20-09)

“Under the program, the Treasury, along with mortgage financiers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, will buy the bonds used by housing finance agencies to fund mortgages, which can carry an interest rate that is a percentage point lower than loans made by private lenders. Called HFAs, these agencies have been strapped during the financial crisis because investors have been unwilling to buy their debt. The federal government is now attempting to play the role of the investors.”

Los Angeles Times“Fewer home-building permits signal weakness ahead” (10-20-09)

“At the same time, the Commerce Department said Tuesday that construction of new homes and apartments rose 0.5 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 590,000 units. That was a weaker showing than the 610,000 economists had expected.”

NAR - “Housing Tax Credit Working, So Keep Momentum Going, NAR Urges Congress” (10-20-09)

“‘The data on the present home buyer tax credit show that the credit has had its intended impact—sales have jumped in recent months to a projected 5.1 million for the year and housing inventory has been trimmed, thus stabilizing home prices noticeably,’ Phipps said. He also pointed out that each home sale generates approximately $63,000 in additional economic activity, providing a tremendous economic boost to the national economy”

Mortgage Bankers Association“MBA Testifies on State of Housing Market” (10-20-09)

“Whenever I am asked when the housing market will recover, I explain that the economy and the housing market are inextricably linked. The number of people receiving paychecks will drive the demand for houses and apartments and the recovery will begin when unemployment stops rising. Since September 2008, we have lost 5.8 million jobs in the US, more than five times the number the previous year.”

Housing Wire“Fitch Projects More RMBS Re-Defaults as HAMP Disappoints” (10-20-09)

“Servicers of residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) continue to increase loss mitigation resolutions, including a significant push in the number of loan modifications, according to a report from Fitch Ratings. As of September 2009, roughly 10% of all RMBS loans and 25% of all subprime loans received at least one modification. A year ago, servicers modified only 3% of all loans, and 7% of subprime loans, according to the report.”

Housing Wire“Servicers Prefer Foreclosure, Says NCLC” (10-20-09)

“Mortgage servicers have found it cheaper to foreclose on homeowners than offer loan modifications, according to a new report from the National Consumer Law Center. The report points out servicers in charge of modifying distressed loans are separate from the lenders, who have packaged the loans and sold them in pieces or pools to other banks and investors.”

Housing Wire“HUD Notes Alleged FHA Violations at Lend America” (10-20-09)

“The 12 alleged violations the HUD board said Ideal Mortgage Bankers made against FHA range from submitting false certifications and failing to document the borrower’s income and creditworthiness, to approving loans that did not meet the FHA’s minimum credit requirements and closing a loan with an excessive mortgage broker fee paid to an approved FHA loan correspondent.”

Orange County Register“Investors grab bigger share of auctioned foreclosures” (10-20-09)

“Investors bought 278, or 39%, of the 718 houses and condos sold at auctions, known as trustee’s sales, in Orange County last month, reports ForeclosureRadar.com.”

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 10/19/09

Monday, October 19th, 2009

Today’s News Synopsis:

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger signed SB 94, which prevents prohibits any person from collecting an advance fee from a consumer for loan modification. According to Campbell Surveys, the national average home price rose 6% from August to September. MetroStudy anticipates a total of 562,000 housing starts in 2009.

In The News:

The Business Insider – “The FHA Is A Looming Disaster” (10-17-09)

“The FHA has expanded from guaranteeing just 2% of mortgages to over 20% in just a couple of years, dramatically raising its exposure to the still declining US housing market. The FHA still backs toxic, almost-no-money down mortgages. It will currently guarantee mortgages with as low as 3.5% downpayments.”

Inman – “State bans advance fees for loan mod help” (10-19-09)

“California has joined nearly two dozen other states in prohibiting foreclosure rescue companies from collecting advance fees for helping homeowners negotiate mortgage loan modifications. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger on Oct. 11 signed into law a bill, SB 94, that prohibits any person from demanding or collecting an advance fee from a consumer for loan modification or mortgage loan forbearance services.”

Associated Press – “Government unveils new mortgage help” (10-19-09)

“The administration said the new program would help to support low mortgage rates and expand resources for low and middle income borrowers who want to buy or rent a home. The program will feature two parts – a new bond purchase program to support new lending by housing finance agencies and a temporary credit and liquidity program to improve access by housing agencies to credit sources for their existing bonds.”

Housing Wire – “BarCap Expects $2bn of CMBS TALF Requests” (10-19-09)

“The October 21 Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) for commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) will likely see an increase in subscription volume over last month, BarCap said in a research report Friday. Bid list activity of $4.8bn since the last CMBS-eligible TALF subscription date points to a likely increase in subscription volume over last month. Of this activity, $2.6bn — or 55% — is TALF-eligible, BarCap researchers said.”

Housing Wire – “REO Demand Pushes Sept. Prices Up: Campbell Survey” (10-19-09)

“National average home prices rose 6% from August to September, driven by an increase in real estate owned (REO) sales prices and transaction counts, according to a monthly real estate market survey conducted by Campbell Surveys. Increased demand REO property increased in September. The average price of distressed REO property was $124,500 in September, up from $106,700 in August. Combined with move-in ready REO, distressed properties accounted for 31% of purchase transactions during the month”

Housing Wire – “Housing Start Projection Falls 37.9% in 2009, Says Metrostudy” (10-19-09)

“While housing start projections for 2009 are down 37.9% from the same period of 2008, research firm Metrostudy expects steady increases in construction starts next year. Metrostudy expects a total 562,000 housing starts for 2009, down 37.9% from 2008. That includes 438,000 single-family starts, which are down 30% from 622,000 in 2008.”

Housing Wire – “59% of New Home Sales Use Government Loans: John Burns” (10-19-09)

“Federally backed mortgages account for 59% of new home sales transactions with 96.5% to 100% loan-to-value (LTV) so far in 2009, according to the latest John Burns Real Estate Consulting homebuilder survey.”

New York Times – “Foreclosures Force Ex-Homeowners to Turn to Shelters” (10-18-09)

“Only three years ago, foreclosure was rarely a factor in how people became homeless. But among the homeless people that social service agencies have helped over the last year, an average of 10 percent lost homes to foreclosure, according to ‘Foreclosure to Homelessness 2009,’ a survey produced by the National Coalition for the Homeless and six other advocacy groups.”

Fort Wayne – “Adjustable mortgage rates to rise, raising foreclosure fears” (10-19-09)

“About 10 percent of all mortgages in this country are scheduled to adjust in the next few years, with the numbers peaking in mid- to late 2011, according to First American CoreLogic. Those loans are worth about $1 trillion, and nearly 20 percent of the borrowers who have them are already seriously behind on their monthly payments.”

DSNews – “California Bank Marks 99th Failure in 2009″ (10-19-09)

“San Joaquin brings the FDIC’s tally of failed banks in 2009 to just one away from the 100-mark. But the single collapse last week follows no bank closures the week prior – the first time that has happened since the week of June 8th. So, does the lull in the FDIC’s closure announcements mean the pace of bank failures is subsiding? Not likely.”

Reuters – “In wake of housing crisis, what lessons learned?” (10-16-09)

“Riverside, part of the thickly populated area known as the Inland Empire east of Los Angeles, has become synonymous with all the worst lending and spending practices of a property boom that busted and pushed the world’s No. 1 economy into its longest slump since the 1930s.”

IBTimesFX – “U.S. housing risks still lurk even as buyers return” (10-12-09)

“Bruce Norris, president of property investment firm The Norris Group, said inventory levels are ‘completely artificial, completely baloney … The delinquency rate (in California) has exploded, but inventory levels have gone down. In many of these cases the banks have simply avoided foreclosure.’”

CREJ – “NSP Funds’ Benefits Limited For California Municipalities” (10-12-09)

“According to Rick Sharga, senior vice president of RealtyTrac, there is a shadow inventory of 400,000 to 500,000 homes taken back by the banks but not yet processed for market sale. ‘Those properties are sitting on the sidelines and God forbid the banks decide one day to flood the market with them – that won’t happen – but they’re there and we’re going to have to get through them,’ Sharga said at a September real estate event hosted by The Norris Group.”

Reuters – “More Rough Times are Ahead for the U.S. Economy, Despite Recent Improvements in Durable…” (9-24-09)

“Thornberg cited real estate as a case in point. While home sales are up in some areas of the country, 6 to 7 percent of home mortgages nationally are 60 to 90 days delinquent. In California alone, 250,000 mortgages are 60 to 90 days late. And there’s more economic trouble on the horizon, he said, with rising unemployment and additional waves of foreclosures.”

144-TNG Radio – I Survived Real Estate 2009 10-17-09

Friday, October 16th, 2009

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I Survived Real Estate 2009

Fundraiser for the Orange County Affiliate for Susan G. Komen for the Cure

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This week The Norris Group Real Estate Radio Show and Podcast presents Part 5 of I Survived Real Estate 2009.

The next speaker for I Survived Real Estate 2009 was Joseph Magdziarz. He is the 2009 Vice President of the Appraisal Institute, and will become president of the Appraisal Institute in 2011. He has been an active member of the Appraisal Institute for 38 years.

The Appraisal Institute is the largest professional appraisal group in the world with 26,000 members. Last year, the Appraisal Institute had 3,900 new members.

The market conditions today are difficult to figure out. When there are complex issues going on, we need to have experts dealing with them, but we are not getting experts to deal with these issues. The reason why this is happening is because the appraisal management companies want reports within a few hours and they pay very little. The best appraisers are starting to leave the industry because of this.

The HVCC expires in July of next year, and people are not happy with it. Moratoriums are not going to help anything. We need long term solutions.

There are 10 large appraisal management companies in the country. Those companies are advertising jobs to people who can do appraisal jobs quickly and cheaply, so people are taking these jobs in areas that they are not familiar with. This is harming consumers, and it harms everyone in the industry. The government is trying to pass a bill which will regulate management companies, so that they work on a state by state basis, and the appraisal management companies do not like that. If this bill passes, perhaps appraisal management companies will start looking for people of quality to do these jobs. Right now, consumers are paying more from lower quality work, and that is wrong. Perhaps if we present this problem as something that is hurting consumers then we can get this problem fixed, because nobody cares about appraisers, Realtors, and mortgage bankers.

One of the problems with current appraisal standards is that appraisers are using distressed sales as comparable sales. Distressed sales do not meet the definition of market value. If you were to use them, you would have to make significant upward adjustments.

People who are not a member of the Appraisal Institute are 7 to 20 times more likely to have complaints filed against them. Joseph hopes to make appraisals more competent by increasing education. Joseph asks that if anyone has an appraiser who is doing work outside of their comfort zone then they need to file a report with the Appraisal Institute. Anyone who does work outside of there are of competency needs to be reported.

Joseph supports the original HVCC because appraisers need to have pressure taken off of them, so that they can make accurate appraisals. Before, some appraisers were pressured to inflate appraisals.

A lot of the Appraisal Institute’s members had relationships with lenders, and they could talk to the lenders when they had problems. They were not being influenced to do unethical things. Right now appraisers have to register with the state, but they do not need a license. Appraisal fraud is beginning to increase again.

People are being discouraged from filing complaints against appraisers. Mortgage lenders do not want to get involved, but they need to. They need to file complaints with the state, because appraisers must have licenses, and file with the Appraisal Institute if the appraiser is a member.

Appraisers were not reporting listing histories or concessions in the past and that can cause over valuing. Also, not knowing those things can cause under valuing issues. If you do not talk with sellers about what caused them to sell, you can come up with a bad appraisal.

Under HVCC, lenders are responsible for paying the appraiser. Brokers are getting bad appraisers because they are not allowed to pick their appraiser. You should have the right to ask for a competent appraiser. If you are not given a competent appraiser, report the appraiser, report the bank, and report the appraisal management company. Ask your appraiser how long they have been in business and if they belong to a professional group. Fannie and Freddie agree that you should look for appraisers that belong to professional associations, because those appraisers have people observing their activity. Professional associations have more strict ethics than the state requirements.

If you have trouble understanding what a comparable sale is, think like this: “If I can’t buy this property that I’m looking at, what other property would I buy first?” That mentality will give you a good idea as to what a comparable sale is. This requires a competent person who can account for repairs that have been done on a house in a neighborhood full of foreclosures. If a repaired house is being compared to a neighborhood full of foreclosures then an upward adjustment must be made on the appraisal. Joseph thinks that many of the problems that we currently have can be blamed on congress, and their lack of enforcement.

The next speaker on I Survived Real Estate 2009 was David Kittle. David began his mortgage banking career in 1978, and is currently vice president of Vision Mortgage Capital. He has served as a past chairman of MBA’s political action committee, board of governors, and he has served on the board of directors since 2004. David Kittle’s mother-in-law is a 21 year breast cancer survivor.

David Kittle has been privileged to represent 3,000 member companies, and over 400,000 individuals that are members of MBA. During the last year and a half, David has spoken in front of congress 14 years. David’s favorite testimony was on November 19, 2008. Senator Whitehouse came out first and screamed at people saying, “Why can’t you modify these loans?” One of the other people there claimed that David was responsible for the entire collapse of the world economy. Last time the bankruptcy laws were changed was 1978. When David got in the business, he could get you an investment loan or a second home loan under the same terms as an owner occupant loan. People at this testimony called David a scrooge, because people were getting kicked out of their homes. David was taught not to talk back to a senator, but he fired back. He said, “Excuse me, Senator. I haven’t drawn a paycheck in 14 months. I’ve layed off 90 percent of my staff, because I can’t afford them. Don’t tell me I don’t know what these people are feeling. I was smart enough to put money away, I protected my credit scores, and I’m making my payments on time.” The senator that was accusing him sat back in his chair and apologized. 95 percent of David’s members are individual business owners who take risk every day. Senators could care less about David’s industry. They care about getting reelected.

MBA has a mortgage action alliance that is free for anyone who wants to make a difference in the mortgage industry. It is free and you do not have to be a member of the MBA. Got to MBA.org, give them your name, email address, and the names of your family. MBA will write your letter to congress, and they will send it to you, so that you may personally send it to congress. If you do not like the letter then you can edit it. A senator may not pay attention to 100 phone calls, but they will pay attention to 15,000 emails. Your opinion does matter.

People sometimes ask mortgage bankers, “Why can’t you modify more loans?” Mortgage bankers cannot modify loans, because borrowers will not call back. When people do ask for modification, they are already 90 days down the road. When bankers modify the loan, they have to retake the loan application, they have to verify assets, and they have to make sure that their borrowers have jobs. Then they have to run a title. The longer those go out, the more taxes are placed against their property.

David predicts that next year there will be a larger wave of foreclosures. All the brokers got FHA approved, and all the loans that were subprime are being placed under FHA. The government is going to have to bail out FHA next. David thinks that the net worth requirements should be higher, and education and licensing requirements need to be higher.

The video of the live event is not being aired online HERE.

You can visit isurvived2009.com to learn more about our sponsors and speakers.

Here are the speakers involved in the event:

Bruce Norris of the Norris Group

Bruce Norris

President

The Norris Group

David Kittle, President of the Mortgage Bankers Association

David Kittle

2009 Chairman

Mortgage Bankers Association

2007 President, National Association of Realtors

Pat Vredevoogd Combs

2007 President

National Association of Realtors

Tommy Williams, 2008 President National Auctioneers Association

Tommy Williams

2008 President

National Auctioneers Association

Christopher Thornberg, Principal and Beacon Economics

Christopher Thornberg

Principal

Beacon Economics

 

John Young

Vice President

California Builders Industry Association

Joseph Magdziarz, VP Appraisal Institute

Joseph Magdziarz

Vice President

Appraisal Institute

Rick Sharga, Senior VP RealtyTrac

Rick Sharga

Senior Vice President

RealtyTrac

To Benefit:

I Survived Real Estate 2009 Sponsors

A huge thank you to all of our sponsors who made this event possible.

Platinum Sponsors

San Diego Creative Investors Association
investClub for Women
Investors Workshop
Frye / Wiles - Web Design in Southern California

Entrust California
MVT Productions - Audio and Video
JK Short Sale
The Business Press
White House Catering
 
National Fix and Flip Network
 

Gold Sponsors

1 m 1 Properties
Appraisal Institute of Southern California
Dalmae
Thank you Elite Auctions for being Gold Sponsors!
Inland Empire Investors Forum
Las Brisas Escrow
Los Angeles Meeting and Event Center
Mortgage Equity Group
Northern California Real Estate Investors Association
Northern San Diego Real Estate Investors Association
Real Wealth Network
RE 411 Magazine
San Jose Real Estate Investors Association
Daniel Dear
Women\'s Council of Realtors - Inland Valley Chapter
Westin South Coast Plaza
Saddleback Valley Communities Petere Apostolos Awesome Limousines
RealtyTrac National Association of Real Estate Investors Far Below Market

143-TNG Radio – I Survived Real Estate 2009 10-10-09

Friday, October 9th, 2009

final_isurvived2009

I Survived Real Estate 2009

Fundraiser for the Orange County Affiliate for Susan G. Komen for the Cure

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This week The Norris Group Real Estate Radio Show and Podcast presents Part 4 of I Survived Real Estate 2009.

This week The Norris Group Real Estate Radio Show presents Tommy Williams segment on I Survived Real Estate 2009. Tommy has over 40 years experience in real estate auctions, land development, and real estate investments. He is the founding partner of Williams and Williams Auctions, and he is the immediate past president of the National Auctioneers’ Association. He has conducted over 10,000 auctions in 48 states, and has even auctioned for Bruce Norris.

We have two economic systems that are flourishing in the world. One is the China system, which is completely government controlled; all individuals and businesses operate on the government’s direction. We once had the exact opposite of that. The U.S. has risen to the place that it is at because it has always placed the individual as number one. It has always placed private business as number one with government interference.

In Tommy’s opinion, when government interferes with the free enterprise system that the U.S. has we develop a bad problem. Every stock sold today, throughout the world, is sold using an open auction. We can speculate about what the real estate market will be like in the future, but if we are going to help real estate recover we need to get the market to reach the price that buyers think that real estate is worth.

There are two ways that real estate comes onto the market. One way is when a property becomes a liability to the owner. Whenever real estate comes into market because of this reason, it needs to be sold in an auction as soon as possible, by a professional auction company. Realtors need to do everything they can to educated buyers on what they need to know for real estate auctions. Auction companies will want to sell properties for as much as possible, and buyers want properties for as cheap as possible.

When a property is sold, families move into them and repair them, and when those homes are repaired the property value of every home in that neighborhood increases. This is the only way the real estate market will recover.

Tomorrow Chrysler will fluctuate based on what Chrysler is worth. Unfortunately, the government is wanting to interfere with what Chrysler is worth. Tommy was told multiple times that if TWA closed down then we would not be able to fly to many places in America, and that it would be the end of American air travel as we know it. It did eventually close down, but a variety of other airline carriers came out of it, and now the air transportation industry is in better shape than it was before. If we let capitalism flourish, it will dig us out of this real estate downturn based on fair market value.

The next speaker for I Survived Real Estate 2009 was Joseph Magdziarz. He is the 2009 vice president of the Appraisal Institute, and will become president of the Appraisal Institute in 2011. He has been an active member of the Appraisal Institute for 38 years.

The Appraisal Institute is the largest professional appraisal group in the world with 26,000 members. Last year, the Appraisal Institute had 3,900 new members.

The market conditions today are difficult to figure out. When there are complex issues going on, we need to have experts dealing with them, but we are not getting experts to deal with these issues. The reason why this is happening is because the appraisal management companies want reports within a few hours and they pay very little. The best appraisers are starting to leave the industry because of this.

The HVCC expires in July of next year, and people are not happy with it. Moratoriums are not going to help anything. We need long term solutions.

There are 10 large appraisal management companies in the country. Those companies are advertising jobs to people who can do appraisal jobs quickly and cheaply, so people are taking these jobs in areas that they are not familiar with. This is harming consumers, and it harms everyone in the industry. The government is trying to pass a bill which will regulate management companies, so that they work on a state by state basis, and the appraisal management companies do not like that. If this bill passes, perhaps appraisal management companies will start looking for people of quality to do these jobs. Right now, consumers are paying more from lower quality work, and that is wrong. Perhaps if we present this problem as something that is hurting consumers then we can get this problem fixed, because nobody cares about appraisers, realtors, and mortgage bankers.

One of the problems with current appraisal standards is that appraisers are using distressed sales as comparable sales. Distressed sales do not meet the definition of market value. If you were to use them, you would have to make significant upward adjustments.

People who are not a member of the Appraisal Institute are 7 to 20 times more likely to have complaints filed against them. Joseph hopes to make appraisals more competent by increasing education. Joseph asks that if anyone has an appraiser who is doing work outside of their comfort zone then they need to file a report with the Appraisal Institute. Anyone who does work outside of there are of competency needs to be reported.

Joseph supports the original HVCC because appraisers need to have pressure taken off of them, so that they can make accurate appraisals. Before, some appraisers were pressured to inflate appraisals.

A lot of the Appraisal Institute’s members had relationships with lenders, and they could talk to the lenders when they had problems. They were not being influenced to do unethical things. Right now appraisers have to register with the state, but they do not need a license. Appraisal fraud is beginning to increase again.

The video of the live event is not being aired online HERE.

The Susan G. Komen “Walk for the Cure” is this Sunday, September 27th at Newport Beach. Donations both small and large are appreciated. You can visit isurvived2009.com to learn how you can still get involved.

Here are the speakers involved in the event:

Bruce Norris of the Norris Group

Bruce Norris

President

The Norris Group

David Kittle, President of the Mortgage Bankers Association

David Kittle

2009 Chairman

Mortgage Bankers Association

2007 President, National Association of Realtors

Pat Vredevoogd Combs

2007 President

National Association of Realtors

Tommy Williams, 2008 President National Auctioneers Association

Tommy Williams

2008 President

National Auctioneers Association

Christopher Thornberg, Principal and Beacon Economics

Christopher Thornberg

Principal

Beacon Economics

 

John Young

Vice President

California Builders Industry Association

Joseph Magdziarz, VP Appraisal Institute

Joseph Magdziarz

Vice President

Appraisal Institute

Rick Sharga, Senior VP RealtyTrac

Rick Sharga

Senior Vice President

RealtyTrac

To Benefit:

I Survived Real Estate 2009 Sponsors

A huge thank you to all of our sponsors who made this event possible.

Platinum Sponsors

San Diego Creative Investors Association
investClub for Women
Investors Workshop
Frye / Wiles - Web Design in Southern California

Entrust California
MVT Productions - Audio and Video
JK Short Sale
The Business Press
White House Catering
 
National Fix and Flip Network
 

Gold Sponsors

1 m 1 Properties
Appraisal Institute of Southern California
Dalmae
Thank you Elite Auctions for being Gold Sponsors!
Inland Empire Investors Forum
Las Brisas Escrow
Los Angeles Meeting and Event Center
Mortgage Equity Group
Northern California Real Estate Investors Association
Northern San Diego Real Estate Investors Association
Real Wealth Network
RE 411 Magazine
San Jose Real Estate Investors Association
Daniel Dear
Women\'s Council of Realtors - Inland Valley Chapter
Westin South Coast Plaza
Saddleback Valley Communities Petere Apostolos Awesome Limousines
RealtyTrac National Association of Real Estate Investors Far Below Market

142-TNG Radio – I Survived Real Estate 2009 10-3-09

Friday, October 2nd, 2009

final_isurvived2009

I Survived Real Estate 2009

Fundraiser for the Orange County Affiliate for Susan G. Komen for the Cure

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This week The Norris Group Real Estate Radio Show and Podcast presents Part 3 of I Survived Real Estate 2009.

This week starts with a continuation of  John Young’s segment. He is the founding partner of Young Homes which is located in Rancho Cucamonga, and he is the Vice President of the California Building Industry Association (CBIA). He has been associated with the real estate business for 30 years.

Many home builders have had to reduce staff in this down turn. John Young has always worked in the first time home buyers industry. His business has picked up because these people can get FHA loans, they have good FICA scores, they have a job, and they have decent credit. There are buyers who couldn’t buy a few years ago who can buy today. In the Inland Empire, prices are still going down because of the large volume that is in those markets.

The California Builders Industry Association (CBIA) is working with the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) to address the inappropriate appraisal practices, and also the acquisition, development, and construction lending crisis that is damaging home builders. Additional credit resources could help home builders greatly.

The inappropriate use of distressed and foreclosed sales in determining new home values is driving down home prices and stalling an economic recovery. NAHB has found that twenty-six percent of builders are losing sales because the appraisals are continuously going below the contract sale price. These appraisal practices are contributing to the credit crisis. Falling appraised home values have lead some financial institutions to stop lending to home builders.

The CBIA and NAHB are calling on government regulators to develop clear and concise regulatory guidelines, which will allow appraisers to develop realistic expectations by accurately comparing homes. CBIA and NAHB supports ideas to help resolve issues pertaining to expiring subdivision maps, reducing unsold inventory, and extending the first time buyer tax credit.

New home builders are now focusing on building on smaller lots with less square footage. They are trying to control the amount of standing inventory, and they are controlling costs and demand less waste. Most private home builders have survived because they had some left over cash from the good times.

Young Homes anticipates that this market will stabilize in two years. John admits that home builders are by nature very optimistic, and that sometimes gets them in trouble.

The next speaker on the show is Pat V. Combs. She is a Realtor with Coldwell Banker. She has worked as a Realtor for 35 years, and she was the 2007 President of the National Association of Realtors.

All real estate is local. Pat can give you a national report, but that is about as accurate as a national weather report. The nation has witnessed 4 straight months of rising existing home sales. The national inventory has decreased from a year ago. These statistics show that recovery is occurring on a broad scale, but not necessarily a regional scale.

The federal tax credit has encouraged 350,000 first time home buyers, around the nation, to buy a home. Pat has been encouraging her children without homes to buy houses right now. Pat has noticed, in Michigan, a lot of entry level buyers getting into the home business. She is not encouraging everyone to buy a house, but anyone who has been “sitting on the fence”, who can qualify for a mortgage, should buy.

When Pat holds open houses, around 5 to 10 people come. Of those 5 to 10 people, 75 percent of them have houses to sell.

Pat expects the total impact of the home buyer tax credit to be somewhere between 300,000 and 650,000 additional home sales in 2009. When you consider that each home sale generates roughly 62,000 dollars in economic activity, that means that around $18.6 to $40 billion dollars are being pumped through the national and local economies.

Cash for Clunkers injected roughly $20 million into the economy. Realtors and home builders are encouraging the tax credit to be extended through 2010, and hopefully the credit will be extended to all home buyers, not just first time buyers.

There is some concern that another wave of foreclosures is going to hit the market place. Pat hopes that the other panelists will be able to give us some options for helping with those foreclosures. We need to resolve problems that have come up because of the new appraisal rules. Realtors are concerned by the out of town appraisers being used, and because of the higher costs that consumers must now pay, and because of the loss of transactions that home sellers and buyers are experiencing because of the appraisal problems. NAR has met with New York attorneys to discuss these problems, but little effort has been made to make changes.

Realtors continue to complain that good credit is not available to good buyers. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are still needed because we need to make the increased loan limits permanent. The current limit is capped at $729.750, and this higher limit will expire on December 31, 2009. It is important for people in high costs states to keep these loan limits high.

Two years ago, FHA was used less than 3 percent of the time. Today, FHA is used over 36 percent of the time. NAR submitted a testimony to the House Financial Services Committee expressing support for increased FHA staffing, and for increased resources to meet rising demand.

President Obama’s proposed Consumer Financial Protection Agency offers the potential to protect consumers from fraud and other deceptive practices, but experts in the real estate industry need to work with Congress to make sure that such an agency supports efficient and effect markets, while protecting consumers at the same time.

Realtors are discovering a new way to do business through the internet, social media, and new applications to methods used in the past. The old mantra “location, location, location” is being pushed into “price, location, price”. Our market places are becoming global. Tweets on new listings are sometimes being answered from China.

The next speaker was Tommy Williams. Tommy has over 40 years experience in real estate auctions, land development, and real estate investments. He is the founding partner of Williams and Williams Auctions, and he is the immediate past president of the National Auctioneers’ Association. He has conducted over 10,000 auctions in 48 states, and has even auctioned for Bruce Norris.

We have two economic systems that are flourishing in the world. One is the China system, which is completely government controlled; all individuals and businesses operate on the government’s direction. We once had the exact opposite of that. The U.S. has risen to the place that it is at, because it has always placed the individual as number one. It has always placed private business as number one with government interference.

The video of the live event is not being aired online HERE.

The Susan G. Komen “Walk for the Cure” is this Sunday, September 27th at Newport Beach. Donations both small and large are appreciated. You can visit isurvived2009.com to learn how you can still get involved.

Here are the speakers involved in the event:

Bruce Norris of the Norris Group

Bruce Norris

President

The Norris Group

David Kittle, President of the Mortgage Bankers Association

David Kittle

2009 Chairman

Mortgage Bankers Association

2007 President, National Association of Realtors

Pat Vredevoogd Combs

2007 President

National Association of Realtors

Tommy Williams, 2008 President National Auctioneers Association

Tommy Williams

2008 President

National Auctioneers Association

Christopher Thornberg, Principal and Beacon Economics

Christopher Thornberg

Principal

Beacon Economics

 

John Young

Vice President

California Builders Industry Association

Joseph Magdziarz, VP Appraisal Institute

Joseph Magdziarz

Vice President

Appraisal Institute

Rick Sharga, Senior VP RealtyTrac

Rick Sharga

Senior Vice President

RealtyTrac

To Benefit:

I Survived Real Estate 2009 Sponsors

A huge thank you to all of our sponsors who made this event possible.

Platinum Sponsors

San Diego Creative Investors Association
investClub for Women
Investors Workshop
Frye / Wiles - Web Design in Southern California

Entrust California
MVT Productions - Audio and Video
JK Short Sale
The Business Press
White House Catering
 
National Fix and Flip Network
 

Gold Sponsors

1 m 1 Properties
Appraisal Institute of Southern California
Dalmae
Thank you Elite Auctions for being Gold Sponsors!
Inland Empire Investors Forum
Las Brisas Escrow
Los Angeles Meeting and Event Center
Mortgage Equity Group
Northern California Real Estate Investors Association
Northern San Diego Real Estate Investors Association
Real Wealth Network
RE 411 Magazine
San Jose Real Estate Investors Association
Daniel Dear
Women\'s Council of Realtors - Inland Valley Chapter
Westin South Coast Plaza
Saddleback Valley Communities Petere Apostolos Awesome Limousines
RealtyTrac National Association of Real Estate Investors Far Below Market

141-TNG Radio – I Survived Real Estate 2009 9-26-09

Friday, September 25th, 2009

part1-300x225

I Survived Real Estate 2009

Fundraiser for the Orange County Affiliate for Susan G. Komen for the Cure

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This week The Norris Group Real Estate Radio Show presents Part 2 of I Survived Real Estate 2009.

Rick Sharga joined RealtyTrac in 2004. He is responsible for branch management, corporate positioning, investor relations, and marketing communications. He has appeared on virtually appeared on every TV show in America.

Foreclosure activity has increased. Since January 2005, we have had 43 consecutive months in which our foreclosure numbers have increased. In 2009 of July, we had over 361,000 U.S. households received a foreclosure notice. 2005 was the last time we saw anything resembling normal foreclosure activity. In a normal market place, about 1 percent of all first and second loans will end up in foreclosure. In 2005, we had about 500,000 foreclosure notices and 100,000 REOs. In July of 2009, we had 75,000 REOs. We are dealing with foreclosure levels that are six times what they would be in a normal market, and the REO levels are 10 times what they would be in a normal market. The people responsible for managing these assets are overwhelmed, and the rules are frequently changing for them. The legal system is trying to help this problem by creating moratoriums, which do nothing more than delay the inevitable.

Last year, 2.3 million households received a foreclosure notice. California accounts for about 1/3 of that foreclosure activity. Up until the last six months, REO activity was occurring more often than all other forms of foreclosure activity. It is now lagging behind the other types of foreclosure. About 1/3 of the properties scheduled for foreclosure are being delayed at auctions.

In Cleveland, a home owner was arrested for failure to pay taxes on a house that he thought had been foreclosed on six months earlier, because the bank started the process then decided that they did not want any more properties, but by that time the owner had already moved out.

There is a “shadow inventory” of about 400,000 to 500,000 REOs that have not yet been put on the market for sale. We will have to get rid of those homes before things get back to normal.

60 percent of all foreclosure activity is found in 6 states. We are now having a wave of unemployment related foreclosures in places including Idaho, Utah, and Arkansas.

There are about 60 to 100 billion dollars worth of Alt-A and option-ARM loans that are going to reset early this year. They are going to default, and they have been defaulting at numbers worse than sub primes. The big wave of those loans will not hit until around the second quarter of next year.

Unemployment is going to pass 10 percent. There will be 1 foreclosure for every 6 to 10 jobs lost. We have lost 7 million jobs since the beginning of the recession. We are setting records for personal bankruptcy filings. Foreclosure properties today are worth more than they were about 1 year ago. Studies from the NAR and CAR show that as foreclosure numbers increase, prices go down.

The builders have said that if we do not keep new housing starts between 200,000 to 300,000 new units per year, for the next 3 years, then we will not get the inventory balanced. Right now we are at a 500,000 to 600,000 unit rate.

The MBA’s delinquency rates are running faster than RealtyTrac’s foreclosure activity rates. That tells us that there is a lot of pressure coming onto the market.

RealtyTrac believes that there will be 3.4 million homes receiving a foreclosure notice this year. Rick believes that option ARMs are going to reset at record levels next year. Option ARMs are usually on properties that are upside down, so the programs made to prevent these from foreclosing will not work. Rick believes we will stabilize in 2011. We will not see normal churn levels until about 2012.

The next speaker was Jon Young. He has been in the real estate and home building industry for over 30 years. He and his partners are responsible for the building of over 3,500 homes in the Inland Empire. He is the current vice president of the CBIA, and he serves on the board of the NAHB.

Home builders have been hit very hard by the down turn. This year, Jon believes that only 40,000 new units will be built. That is the lowest number of new units since the early 1950s. In 2004, we saw a 15 year high of nearly 213,000 units built. In just five years, new home starts have plummeted 80 percent.

The construction of one singly-family home generates around 2 to 3 jobs, 330,000 in economic benefit, about 16,000 in state tax revenue, and 3,000 in local tax revenue. If the housing market does not get better then the state will not get better.

Jon has focused on 5 goals for this year. These were: extending the expiring map act, develop and fee reforms, solving the credit crunch, reducing unsold inventory, and extending the home buyers tax credit.

CBI sponsored an extension that would require any viable project to the beginning of the entitlement process. Since this bill was signed, hundreds of expiring subdivision maps. Impact fees are a burden on the business. The profit margin has been reduced so much that it makes the cost of building unfeasible. AB1084 will help to make sure that builders are being charged a fair amount, if it is passed. CBIA is supporting a bill which will give the state bank authorization to help home builders get financing for construction. CBIA is also supporting a bill that would require CHFA to provide funding for the purchasing of these homes. CBIA also sponsored the home buyer tax credit which provided incentive for new buyers to buy. The home sales increased dramatically through this program. The program has done so well that the franchise tax board decided to end it, because they have already allocated $100,000,000 dollars. We also had a Federal tax credit for 8,000 dollars, which will end in November of this year.

The video of the live event is not being aired online HERE.

The Susan G. Komen “Walk for the Cure” is this Sunday, September 27th at Newport Beach. Donations both small and large are appreciated. You can visit isurvived2009.com to learn how you can still get involved.

Here are the speakers involved in the event:

Bruce Norris of the Norris Group

Bruce Norris

President

The Norris Group

David Kittle, President of the Mortgage Bankers Association

David Kittle

2009 Chairman

Mortgage Bankers Association

2007 President, National Association of Realtors

Pat Vredevoogd Combs

2007 President

National Association of Realtors

Tommy Williams, 2008 President National Auctioneers Association

Tommy Williams

2008 President

National Auctioneers Association

Christopher Thornberg, Principal and Beacon Economics

Christopher Thornberg

Principal

Beacon Economics

 

John Young

Vice President

California Builders Industry Association

Joseph Magdziarz, VP Appraisal Institute

Joseph Magdziarz

Vice President

Appraisal Institute

Rick Sharga, Senior VP RealtyTrac

Rick Sharga

Senior Vice President

RealtyTrac

To Benefit:

I Survived Real Estate 2009 Sponsors

A huge thank you to all of our sponsors who made this event possible.

Platinum Sponsors

San Diego Creative Investors Association
investClub for Women
Investors Workshop
Frye / Wiles - Web Design in Southern California

Entrust California
MVT Productions - Audio and Video
JK Short Sale
The Business Press
White House Catering
 
National Fix and Flip Network
 

Gold Sponsors

1 m 1 Properties
Appraisal Institute of Southern California
Dalmae
Thank you Elite Auctions for being Gold Sponsors!
Inland Empire Investors Forum
Las Brisas Escrow
Los Angeles Meeting and Event Center
Mortgage Equity Group
Northern California Real Estate Investors Association
Northern San Diego Real Estate Investors Association
Real Wealth Network
RE 411 Magazine
San Jose Real Estate Investors Association
Daniel Dear
Women\'s Council of Realtors - Inland Valley Chapter
Westin South Coast Plaza
Saddleback Valley Communities Petere Apostolos Awesome Limousines
RealtyTrac National Association of Real Estate Investors Far Below Market

140-TNG Radio – I Survived Real Estate 2009 9-19-09

Saturday, September 19th, 2009

part1-300x225

I Survived Real Estate 2009

Fundraiser for the Orange County Affiliate for Susan G. Komen for the Cure

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This week The Norris Group Real Estate Radio Show presents Part 1 of “I Survived Real Estate 2009”. Aaron Norris starts the show by discussing the purpose of the event. I Survived 2009 is a breast cancer fundraiser. All donations received for this event were given to the Susan G. Komen for the Cure foundation. The Norris family has been personally touched by cancer, as Marsha Norris has been fighting cancer for 14 years.

The Susan G. Komen “Walk for the Cure” is September 27th at Newport Beach. Donations both small and large are appreciated. You can visit isurvived2009.com to learn how you can still get involved. The video of the event will be posted later next week.

Play Now

 

 

 

Bruce Norris of the Norris Group

Bruce Norris

President

The Norris Group

David Kittle, President of the Mortgage Bankers Association

David Kittle

2009 Chairman

Mortgage Bankers Association

2007 President, National Association of Realtors

Pat Vredevoogd Combs

2007 President

National Association of Realtors

Tommy Williams, 2008 President National Auctioneers Association

Tommy Williams

2008 President

National Auctioneers Association

Christopher Thornberg, Principal and Beacon Economics

Christopher Thornberg

Principal

Beacon Economics

 

John Young

Vice President

California Builders Industry Association

Joseph Magdziarz, VP Appraisal Institute

Joseph Magdziarz

Vice President

Appraisal Institute

Rick Sharga, Senior VP RealtyTrac

Rick Sharga

Senior Vice President

RealtyTrac

To Benefit:

I Survived Real Estate 2009 Sponsors

A huge thank you to all of our sponsors who made this event possible.

Platinum Sponsors

San Diego Creative Investors Association
investClub for Women
Investors Workshop
Frye / Wiles - Web Design in Southern California

Entrust California
MVT Productions - Audio and Video
JK Short Sale
The Business Press
White House Catering
 
National Fix and Flip Network
 

Gold Sponsors

1 m 1 Properties
Appraisal Institute of Southern California
Dalmae
Thank you Elite Auctions for being Gold Sponsors!
Inland Empire Investors Forum
Las Brisas Escrow
Los Angeles Meeting and Event Center
Mortgage Equity Group
Northern California Real Estate Investors Association
Northern San Diego Real Estate Investors Association
Real Wealth Network
RE 411 Magazine
San Jose Real Estate Investors Association
Daniel Dear
Women\'s Council of Realtors - Inland Valley Chapter
Westin South Coast Plaza
Saddleback Valley Communities Petere Apostolos Awesome Limousines
RealtyTrac National Association of Real Estate Investors Far Below Market

90-TNG Radio – I Survived Real Estate 10-11-08

Friday, October 10th, 2008

isurvived2008

I Survived Real Estate 2008

Part Eight

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Part eight of “I Survived Real Estate 2008” picks up with Rick Sharga of RealtyTrac talking about a discussion he had with a man who handled the REO assets at a credit union. The man was wondering if RealtyTrac could supply him a list of who owned the firsts on a list properties. Rick was surprised since he thought that would have been information that was gathered. The man said they did not have the information as little information was gathered on the first mortgage and little was taken on the homebuyer.

Rick says this downturn is different from others in that other downturns were preceded by an economic downturn. RealtyTrac feels this kicked in first quarter of 2006. Unemployment was historically low as were interest rates. Rick sees we saw capitalism at its worst. We saw Realtors and mortgage brokers getting greedy along with Wall Street. Tools were being used in ways they never should have been used. The wheels this time all came off at once.

Bruce says there are a lot of new people in business. The greatest bull run got more and more people in and they rationalized that it would continue. Bruce talks about the discussions people make in a boom market and why it’s unwinding. Bruce also mentions a bet with a friend he made where he thought oil prices would be at $50 before they hit $150. This was when the price was $142.

Bruce asks Richard Lambros how the building industry looks at this market and the possibility of building. Richard talks about the builder journey through the last few years. This is a housing crisis combined with a credit crisis. Richard brings up how most people don’t like the solutions being presented but feels the solutions may be less painful then letting it correct on its own. He says builders are really in a position of waiting and the core issues are still an issue. California homes are very expensive to create and the government doesn’t seem to realize that.

Bruce asks Richard if when building resumes if the size of the homes will decline. Richard says the average went from 2,200 to 2,500 square feet and builders were looking at demand.

Bruce says he thinks this is an unusual event and this might never been happen again in our lifetime. Prices might skew so low that it will eventually attract mass migration. Once our home prices dip below those of neighboring states, we win the climate and coast battle and win migration. Once we get the migration, building will really be up and running again.

Tommy chimes in and says there are other states that had the same inventory for half the price of the states that got overheated. Overheated states have to come back to “normal.”

Bruce says he agrees but says that’s part of the reason he loves California real estate. California wins so many tie breakers. There’s exciting volatility you don’t get in other states.

Bruce talks about Fannie and Freddie and if we’ll see them stay in private ownership.

Christopher Thornberg says they are clearly insolvent and he doesn’t know what they will do or how they will react. Typically they overact.

Bruce asks the panel if the government writing these big checks will increase inflation and if we’ll see much different interest rates three years from now.

Christopher describes the two ways our government pays the bills; issue debt or printing money. Christopher says our government assumes that investors have confidence in the system. If investors see the bottom drop out of the public bond market and the treasuries go crazy then there’s a problem but he says we’re far from that. Christopher says interest rates are now adjusting for the increased risk. Eventually they’ll come down when this crisis passes.

Bruce talks about when he became an investor he refinanced his house at 17% interest. Many people were telling him at the time he’d never see single digit interest rates again. Bruce says interest rates can be very high as long as the income to median price ratio makes sense. There could still be a healthy market.

Rick talks about market psychology and how nervous buyers and lenders are at the moment.

Bruce talks about the velocity of price drops in the market being historical and some are unaware. 35-50% price declines are shocking.

Joel discusses a Zillow study where 7 out of 10 people thought their home was still appreciating. Christopher Thornberg calls that homo-illucination and what it stands for.

Bruce asks Phil Tirone if lenders are skewing too conservative and not making loans at all. The automated underwriting was such a blessing at the time because it made things ease and now it’s making it worse. Phil describes people putting 50% down and he still can’t get financing because his client’s credit score is low.

Christopher says those automated systems were a disaster and that lenders knew how to manipulate the systems. Philip says these systems did help cause the problem. Christopher says once the price gets down low everyone will qualify.

Bruce touches on affordability. Bruce describes affordability and what it solves and does not solve. He describes past cycles and what he looks for in a turned around market.

More in the last and final show. See also the video on YouTube or Google video.

The following partners and sponsors without whom the event would not have been possible:

Platinum Sponsors:

The San Diego Creative Investors Association (SDCIA): sdcia.com

Investors Workshops: investorsworkshops.com

Frye Wiles: fryewiles.com

Proxibid: proxibid.com

White House Catering: whcatering.com

MVT Productions: mvtpro.com

Pechanga Resort and Casino: pechanga.com

The Denver Nuggets: nba.com nuggets

The Chicago Bulls: nba.com bulls

The Cleveland Cavaliers: nba.com cavaliers

Gold Sponsors:

7 Steps to a 720 Credit Score and Philip X. Tirone – 7stepsto720.com

Chicago Title – ctic.com

Elite Auctions – sellwithauction.com

Foreclosure Trackers – foreclosuretrackers.com

Investors Resource Center of America LA and Steve and Robyn Love – irca-losangeles.com

Las Brisas Escrow – lasbrisasescrow.com

National Club of Real Estate Investors and Sam Saddat – ncrei.com

Northern California Real Estate Investors Association (Norcalreia) and David Granzella – norcalreia.com

North San Diego Real Estate Investors and Linda Wessels – nsdrei.org

RealtyTrac – realtytrac.com

RE Ventures and Michael Pines – reventuresrealty.com

Real Estate Investors Club of Los Angeles and Phyllis Rockower – realestateclubla.com

Real Wealth Investor and Scott Whaley – realwealthinvestor.com

Saddleback Valley Communities – svc4.com

Silverstar Finance and Janet French – silverstarfinance.com

Sunset Hills Memorial Park and Mortuary – sunsethills.cc

The Mission Inn – missioninn.com

The Mortgage Equity Group – http: themeg.net

The Naked Real Estate Investor Club – Rosie Nieto – nakedrealestateinvestorsclub.com

The Short Sale Processor and Nick Manfredi – theshortsaleprocessor.com

Virtual Real Estate Tour and Layla Tusko – 1wealthcreation.com

Wholesale Capital Corporation – wccmtg.com

89-TNG Radio – I Survived Real Estate 10-4-08

Friday, October 3rd, 2008

isurvived2008

I Survived Real Estate 2008

Part Seven

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Part seven of “I Survived Real Estate 2008” picks up with the panel interview from the last session where Bruce talks about how Wall Street keeps calling to find out when bottom is so they can profit even though they are part of the reason we’re in this current situation.

Rick talks about large pools of money purchasing these loans at deep discounts and then fixing the principles of the people in the homes.

Bruce then responds by talking about HR3221 about how HUD can buy first trust deeds at a discount and how the new structure would allow them to alter the loan of the person in the property. Bruce worries about the ramifications of this program. It is limited in who can apply since it applies to adjustable mortgages only. The people who really get burned are those next door who qualified for a fixed loan and are making the payments. They did everything correctly but they don’t apply for the principle reduction. With California being a non recourse state, Bruce worries the dominos that might fall. Bruce then asks Philip Tirone if bailing from mortgages is becoming more acceptable.

Philip says clients don’t care about the moral issue of walking away; they are more concerned about the credit ramification. Philip talks about the raised loan limits and how everyone thought it would make a difference. They think things are going to help but when you get into the legislation, it doesn’t.

Bruce agrees with Christopher in that the median price has to become more reasonable. Christopher thinks another 6 months and everyone will qualify.

Tommy Williams brings up the very important point of moral hazard in letting something like a bailouts occur. Not holding consumers accountable sets up a larger problem for the future.

Bruce asks Christopher about Merrill Lynch taking .22 cents on the dollar for a $30 billion package of CDOs . He says they actually got 5% in cash and carried back a note and guaranteed the pile. Bruce asks whose money was actually lost. Christopher says it was the consumer investing in their company. Christopher says this buyout is another instrument and accounting mechanism. The financial system, Christopher says, is an absolute mess. All banks are having a difficult time. We’re having an issue with cash because of it.

Bruce asks Christopher about how FDIC can handle writing these sort of checks and if the government will just keep writing checks. Christopher says that they’ll have to be bailed out as well. Bruce asks if stagflation will be a problem. Christopher says he doesn’t think it will be an issue.

Bruce asks Rick Sharga about the difference between a bank owning a loan and the individual owner. Rick explains how the process works. Banks can accept the losses but the private investors can’t as easily take the hit. These loans are not as flexible as the securitized loans. Bruce talks about HR3221 and how the second must be wiped out first.

About 10% of the foreclosures list in Riverside being non-owner occupied but 70% out of the 90% that are owner occupied have simultaneous first and second at the time of purchase. Almost 100% of these properties are 100% financed.

Joel Singer brings up refinancing. The number of first payment defaults is huge because of bad credit and no skin in the game. The good news, he says, 2 out of 3 will stay in their home most likely. However, he is much more concerned about price drops then the mortgage resets. He thinks more people will walk if the prices get too low.

Bruce also brings up unemployment and how it will continue to go up. He says out migration will then probably force more to leave.

Bruce asks Annemaria if loan tightening happens during every cycle. Annemaria talk about how there’s a cycle and she thinks that this will never happen on this scale again. Lenders are in sheer panic because of what’s gone on and all the legislation now being presented. It’s a little late to implement since everyone has already got in. Bruce feels once we get into a safe market, the next person will dream up the next special mortgage.

Christopher says financial investors are always slipping in risk and hiding it. Incentives from Wall Street are bazaar and we need to not trust them so this doesn’t happen.

Bruce sees the foreclosures coming as being a huge problem and much worse then the 90s. In the 90s we had two times as many sales as we had foreclosures. This year, we’ll have two times as many foreclosures to sales.

Joel Singer says the 90s downturn was caused by unemployment. There were 7 years where prices were flat. Joel is curious to see if the market will clear faster because of the steep price drop. He thinks we have to make the market clear and he feels that it really already has. Joel is stunned at how many sales are currently being made and he doesn’t think it’s investor purchases. It’s cheaper to buy then rent in some places. Builders are having a hard time competing because homes are being bought below replacement costs.

Bruce talks about his Grand Junction, Colorado experience buying all of HUD’s condos. Bruce set all the costs at $8,000 a condo but no one would buy because the market was too scary. Emotions definitely play a role.

Rick says he talked to a man who handled the REO assets at a credit union and the man was wondering if RealtyTrac could supply him a list of who owned the first. Rick was surprised since he thought that would have been information that was gathered. The man said they did not have the information as little information was gathered on the first mortgage and little was taken on the homebuyer. More next week or see YouTube or Google video for the entire program. Next week is the final week of the audio.

The following partners and sponsors without whom the event would not have been possible:

Platinum Sponsors:

The San Diego Creative Investors Association (SDCIA): sdcia.com

Investors Workshops: investorsworkshops.com

Frye Wiles: fryewiles.com

Proxibid: proxibid.com

White House Catering: whcatering.com

MVT Productions: mvtpro.com

Pechanga Resort and Casino: pechanga.com

The Denver Nuggets: nba.com nuggets

The Chicago Bulls: nba.com bulls

The Cleveland Cavaliers: nba.com cavaliers

Gold Sponsors:

7 Steps to a 720 Credit Score and Philip X. Tirone – 7stepsto720.com

Chicago Title – ctic.com

Elite Auctions – sellwithauction.com

Foreclosure Trackers – foreclosuretrackers.com

Investors Resource Center of America LA and Steve and Robyn Love – irca-losangeles.com

Las Brisas Escrow – lasbrisasescrow.com

National Club of Real Estate Investors and Sam Saddat – ncrei.com

Northern California Real Estate Investors Association (Norcalreia) and David Granzella – norcalreia.com

North San Diego Real Estate Investors and Linda Wessels – nsdrei.org

RealtyTrac – realtytrac.com

RE Ventures and Michael Pines – reventuresrealty.com

Real Estate Investors Club of Los Angeles and Phyllis Rockower – realestateclubla.com

Real Wealth Investor and Scott Whaley – realwealthinvestor.com

Saddleback Valley Communities – svc4.com

Silverstar Finance and Janet French – silverstarfinance.com

Sunset Hills Memorial Park and Mortuary – sunsethills.cc

The Mission Inn – missioninn.com

The Mortgage Equity Group – http: themeg.net

The Naked Real Estate Investor Club – Rosie Nieto – nakedrealestateinvestorsclub.com

The Short Sale Processor and Nick Manfredi – theshortsaleprocessor.com

Virtual Real Estate Tour and Layla Tusko – 1wealthcreation.com

Wholesale Capital Corporation – wccmtg.com

88-TNG Radio – I Survived Real Estate 10-4-08

Friday, October 3rd, 2008

isurvived2008

I Survived Real Estate 2008

Part Six

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Part six of “I Survived Real Estate 2008” picks up with review from last week. Since this is the solution portion it’s very important. Later in the interview the Q&A with all panelists begins.

Bruce shows the audience a list of 20 homes The Norris Group purchased in the past 45 days through auction or out of the MLS and the huge price hits lenders are taking. On 20 transactions, the banks took a $4.6 million dollar loss. Bruce says he’s worried about the domino effect. Too many people owe more than their property is worth.

Bruce says there are three ways to solve a vacancy. We can tear down houses and create an artificial housing shortage. We can leave it vacant and wait for till household formation catches up with supply. Or, we could make it possible for investors to have financing to hold them.

Four solutions that are needed to get us back on track. The 203k loan program from FHA should be made available to investors. It was available to investors until 1996 and then FHA discontinued because it had done its job of getting rid of foreclosures. FHA doesn’t have a ton of foreclosures because they didn’t make a ton of loans. However, the loan program needs to be made available for investors to expedite the foreclosure problem.

Fannie and Freddie need to increase the number of loans they will give to investors. Both want to open offices in California to help unload inventory more quickly and investors are likely candidates. At the same time, they are cutting back on financing available. Both are in a dire situation. Fannie and Freddie hold a huge amount of the foreclosures.

Option Arms are the next wave and these loans represent 50% of Fannie and Freddie losses. Bruce shows the Option Arm reset chart. The chart shows the expected resets and what’s currently happening now. A huge number of these Option Arm loan holders are making teaser payments. Once the loan balance hits a certain percentage, the loan resets. 90% of the borrowers of these loans made the minimum payment. Many won’t walk until the reset because the payment is cheaper than rent.

The foreclosure process is now taking longer because the banks are so slammed but because of the new regulations as well. The bulk of these are set to land in 2009. The loan amounts were typically more than subprime and the lenders will have to recalculate what they made because of how they were writing things off.

Bruce says a due on sale moratorium would make it possible for investors to buy properties that would undoubtedly become foreclosures, it would allow Realtors and auctioneers to make commission on properties with no equity but favorable financing, allow a consumer to move on with credit intact, and improve liquidity in the system.

In the 1980s, foreclosures exploded but price deterioration wasn’t bad. Assumptions of loans saved the market. When interest rates were 17%, people were able to assume better financing. Bringing back the simple assumption could really help.

Bruce also suggests the 90 day seasoning period on properties to be removed so investors can fix houses and sell them more quickly. Bruce shows the audience the picture of one of The Norris Group’s fixed up properties. Bruce describes why our fixed up inventory is so important for the market. The assumption that investors are committing fraud is completely wrong and is actually causing more problems. The creation of the two levels of comps is necessary to keep prices stable.

Bruce also wants to see long-term financing for investors so we can get the market cranking again.

Bruce then starts the second part of event. All eight guests appear on the stage to discuss the solutions brought forward.

Tommy Williams starts off by speaking on the point that there are some properties that should be bulldozed as some neighborhoods would actually be better off.

Christopher Thornberg brings up the political ramifications and complications of solutions and the difficulty of getting people to listen. Christopher also brings up the myth where some people renting must mean that person’s life is a complete wash. Christopher also brings up how investors were blamed for the current market.

Bruce brings up the fact that all the solutions he proposed are not new and that they had existed at one time in the past. It’s nothing new and they worked before.

Rick Sharga says the number of properties in foreclosure that are not owner occupied have not gone up that much. The myth that the investor caused it is not correct. Rick points out that many of the solutions would have to be implemented one piece at a time and it would take time. Rick also talks about non profits getting involved. Habitat for Humanity is taking REOs and rehabbing them instead of starting from scratch. Rick also talks about how numerous investors are coming in with large pools of money ready to take down portfolios of notes.

Bruce talks about how he gets called by Wall Street often and how they are putting together multi-million dollar pools to do that and they want to know when bottom is. Bruce is not excited about the thought that the very companies that helped get us into this mess will be the ones who also take advantage of the current situation. More to come.

The following partners and sponsors without whom the event would not have been possible:

Platinum Sponsors:

The San Diego Creative Investors Association (SDCIA): sdcia.com

Investors Workshops: investorsworkshops.com

Frye Wiles: fryewiles.com

Proxibid: proxibid.com

White House Catering: whcatering.com

MVT Productions: mvtproductions.tv

Pechanga Resort and Casino: pechanga.com

The Denver Nuggets: nba.com nuggets

The Chicago Bulls: nba.com bulls

The Cleveland Cavaliers: nba.com cavaliers

Gold Sponsors:

7 Steps to a 720 Credit Score and Philip X. Tirone – 7stepsto720.com

Chicago Title – ctic.com

Elite Auctions – sellwithauction.com

Foreclosure Trackers – foreclosuretrackers.com

Investors Resource Center of America LA and Steve and Robyn Love – irca-losangeles.com

Las Brisas Escrow – lasbrisasescrow.com

National Club of Real Estate Investors and Sam Saddat – ncrei.com

Northern California Real Estate Investors Association (Norcalreia) and David Granzella – norcalreia.com

North San Diego Real Estate Investors and Linda Wessels – nsdrei.org

RealtyTrac – realtytrac.com

RE Ventures and Michael Pines – reventuresrealty.com

Real Estate Investors Club of Los Angeles and Phyllis Rockower – realestateclubla.com

Real Wealth Investor and Scott Whaley – realwealthinvestor.com

Saddleback Valley Communities – svc4.com

Silverstar Finance and Janet French – silverstarfinance.com

Sunset Hills Memorial Park and Mortuary – sunsethills.cc

The Mission Inn – missioninn.com

The Mortgage Equity Group – http: themeg.net

The Naked Real Estate Investor Club – Rosie Nieto – nakedrealestateinvestorsclub.com

The Short Sale Processor and Nick Manfredi – theshortsaleprocessor.com

Virtual Real Estate Tour and Layla Tusko – 1wealthcreation.com

Wholesale Capital Corporation – wccmtg.com