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Marsha Norris lost her brave battle with cancer on January 22nd. For the next several weeks, we honor her memory by re-airing three shows she recorded leading up to our I Survived Real Estate events that raised awareness and money for breast cancer.
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September 17th, 2010, The Norris Group returns with its award winning event I Survived Real Estate 2010. The Norris Group has assembled an incredible line up of industry experts to discuss the state of REO from the inside. Topics will include regulatory intervention and aftermath, bulk buying, myths and facts, and opportunities emerging for real estate professionals. 100 percent of the proceeds support the Orange County affiliate of Susan G. Komen for the Cure. This event would not be possible without generous help from the following platinum partners: Foreclosure Radar and Sean O’Toole, the San Diego Creative Real Estate Investors Association and Bill Tan, Investors Workshops and Shawn Watkins and Angel Bronsgeest, Invest Club for Women and Iris Veneracion and Bobby Alexander, Claudia Buys Houses, The Business Press, Frye Wiles, MVT Productions, and White House Catering.
This week Bruce is joined by Peter Wayman. Peter is the Senior REO Sales Director for Freddie Mac. He oversees the design of sales strategies and how those strategies are applied across the REO portfolio. His group oversees the retail sales process, auctions and investor sales. Peter is responsible for the Affordable Housing Strategy: selling homes to organizations engaged in neighborhood stabilization. Peter came to Freddie Mac with 32 years of executive relocation experience. In that position, he has won national awards and is in the hall of fame.
The major product offered by the relocation industry has been the purchase of the transferee’s home. Peter is accustomed to valuing and selling on a cost plus basis. He does not have to foreclose and evict transferees, but he does have to call executives of companies and tell them the value of their homes. The relocation industry operates globally.
Freddie Mac’s primary method for selling homes is to put them in the hands of great brokers. Also, special incentives are offered to owner occupants to encourage purchasing. Freddie Mac’s focus is to make home buying possible, and to do that by positioning their homes fairly for owner occupants. To effectively use this strategy, homes must be conditioned for financing, buyer’s closing costs must be addressed, and home warrantee programs are offered as well. Freddie is biased towards getting owner occupants into homes.
History shows that if an owner occupant lives in a house, their occupancy improves their neighborhood. Freddie Mac is concerned with neighborhood stabilization. When owner occupants invest their money into a house, they connect more with the community and have more pride in their community.
In 2009, Freddie Mac ended the year with 71% of its homes going to owner occupants. This year, we are slightly under that percentage. We are in a prime selling season now, and Freddie Mac is finishing one of their special programs for owner occupants.
The ratio of 70:30 for owner occupants to other types of owners is considered acceptable by Freddie Mac. Freddie realizes that some of their properties are not currently suitable for occupants. Freddie puts the Neighborhood Stabilization funds into the hands of an NSP grantee for properties in bad condition. The NSP grantee uses the funds to renovate the home, add green energy options to it, and then sell it to an affordable buyer. These homes often receive $30,000 in renovations, which is not something that many private investors can do. Most of these funds are targeting extremely hard hit areas and some homes are even being considered for tear down.
Not all investors do a bad job of renovating properties, but Freddie Mac has to deal with a wide scope of investors. Freddie Mac considers responsible investors to be a viable option for getting rid of inventory.
NSP funds are delivered from a city or county. The largest portions of the funds come from the federal government, but state governments, land banks, and non-profit associations are also engaged in neighborhood stabilization. Freddie Mac is open to working with all of these companies.
Companies with NSP funds have an advantage when looking for properties owned by Freddie Mac. Freddie Mac uses an NCST (National Community Stabilization Trust), which provides access to grantees with NSP funds. The NCST works with a large number of grantees and servicers. It creates an interchange which shows all of the servicer’s properties on a google-type map. The grantees may then look to see if there are properties being offered in their designated census tracks for neighborhood stabilization. They then immediately have the opportunity to ask the servicer for a home’s price. All of this happens during the pre-list phase of moving REO inventory, so grantees have the opportunity to view properties while Freddie Mac is still valuing the properties.
Some cities have had trouble spending their funds for damaged properties. This may be due to the difference in reaction time when compared to a private investor. Some of the NSP-1 funds had to be committed as of today, but there are also NSP-2 and NSP-3 funds. Each grantee takes a different approach on assembling their programs. Some of them got started more quickly than others.
Freddie Mac has been heavily involved in the modification process and in foreclosure alternatives. Peter believes those two tools are becoming much more effective, because the servicers and Freddie Mac are developing more effective automation. Also, staff training has improved, and the real estate community is becoming more educated. All of these things have helped make modifications and foreclosure alternatives more effective.
Banks are beginning to address serious delinquencies. At the end of the 4th quarter of 2009, serious delinquencies peaked at 4.13 percent of all mortgages. This percentage has been coming down for 5 months in a row.
We are also seeing the REO inventory increasing. In January 2009, we had 21,000 REO homes, and in January 2010, we had 45,000. At the end of July 1st, we had 62,000 REOs. That 62,000 represents inventory in redemption, eviction, pre-list, listed, sold and going into closing. Generally speaking, over 50 percent of REO inventory is in redemption, eviction, and pre-list. That number is currently closer to 55 percent.
Peter believes it has been proven that losses are lessened by modifications. The sooner you address the problem, the lower the costs are in the process. A foreclosure should be considered a last resort.
Modifications had a 60 percent failure rate. Peter believes that as the modification process has gone to using written verification and careful coaching, the failure rate has gone down.
In September, Peter will be a part of the I Survived Real Estate 2010 panel. He will be speaking in front of about 400 eager investors, who will be trying to figure out how to get their share of Freddie Mac’s properties, and possibly even get a chance at a bulk purchase.
Peter is very excited to work with this charity program. Freddie Mac has to be primarily concerned with getting rid of properties at the lowest cost to the tax payer. Freddie Mac has discovered that nothing works better than listing properties with a great real estate broker, exposing it to the entire market, having a property priced and conditioned right, and allowing that exposure to drive a retail sale within 90 to 120 days. This focus tends to work extremely well. There are some assets that do not sell within that time frame. When assests don’t sell well, Freddie Mac turns to ballroom auctions and online auctions, and finally to bulk sales for investors. Investor bulk sales are not perceived as having the highest potential recovery rate. Less than 0.5 percent goes through bulk investor sales. Freddie Mac is currently developing a better strategy for bulk sales. There should be more bulk sale activity in the future.
Some states have different real estate problems, and there are some problems that necessitate different solutions. In Florida, Freddie Mac has a waver on REO condo requirements, so Florida condos make great candidates for bulk sales. Properties with Chinese drywall, low values, no insurance options, no occupancy certificates, or environmental problems will be more likely to end up in a bulk sale. Lots of investors contact Freddie Mac asking to buy all the $200,000 properties in California and Arizona. Peter responds to those investors saying, “You mean all those properties that I get multiple offers on within the first two weeks of being listed on the market?” Freddie Mac does not need investors to buy those properties.
For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.
Thank you for being a Gold Sponsor for I Survived Real Estate 2010: Adrenaline Athletics, Benton Investment Group, Community RE-Invest Group, Delmae Properties, Elite Auctions, Entrust California, Everlast Photography, Inland Empire Investors Forum, Keystone CPA, Landwood Title, Las Brisas Escrow, Leivas Financial Services, Mike Cantu, North San Diego Real Estate Investors Association, Northern California Real Estate Investors Association, Personal Real Estate Investor Magazine, Realty 411 Magazine, San Jose Real Estate Investor Association, Rick and LeeAnne Rossiter, San Jose Real Estate Investor Association, Starz Photography, Summit Solutions, Tony Alvarez, Wealth Point, and Westin South Coast Plaza.
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September 17th, 2010, The Norris Group returns with its award winning event I Survived Real Estate 2010. The Norris Group has assembled an incredible line up of industry experts to discuss the state of REO from the inside. Topics will include regulatory intervention and aftermath, bulk buying, myths and facts, and opportunities emerging for real estate professionals. 100 percent of the proceeds support the Orange County affiliate of Susan G. Komen for the Cure. This event would not be possible without generous help from the following platinum partners: Foreclosure Radar and Sean O’Toole, the San Diego Creative Real Estate InvestorsAssociation and Bill Tan, Investors Workshops and Shawn Watkins and Angel Bronsgeest, Invest Club for Women and Iris Veneracion and Bobby Alexander, San Jose Real Estate Investors Association and Geraldine Barry, Claudia Buys Houses, Frye Wiles, MVT Productions, and White House Catering.
This week Bruce is joined by Tommy Williams. Tommy is the past president of the National Auctioneers Association and cofounder of Williams and Williams Auctions. He has conducted over 10,000 auctions in 48 states and Canada. He is an advisor to auctions conducted in Western Europe, South Africa and New Zealand.
The auction business extends to almost any category. The world’s largest takes place every day in New York, and we call it the New York Stock Exchange. Buyers and sellers meet there and someone is conducting the price.
There are different acceptance levels in different countries toward auctions and different industries. If Tommy was planning to sell livestock, he would sell it through auction. Auctions are the accepted method for selling livestock of any kind. Used cars and used heavy equipment are also commonly sold through auction. Rare collectible items are sold through auctions too. The problem is that people developed a negative mentality of real estate auctions after the Great Depression when foreclosure Sheriff sales were occurring. This has caused people to perceive auctioned real estate as depressed, but in reality, auctioning is one of the best way to determine market value for real estate too.
Bruce read an article about an auction for Pete Rose’s baseball bat. It sold for $156,000 and the auctioneers thought that was too little. You sometimes cannot know what something will sell for, and that is the purpose of an auction; it reveals what a buyer is willing to pay. Tommy believes we get ourselves into trouble when we try to twist the market place, and we need the natural market to determine true value. We tried twisting real estate and we got disastrous results. Bruce feels like we are in the phoniest market he has ever experienced in his life. The government is trying to artificially influence the market.
Six years ago, Tommy started selling homes in the bad areas of Detroit. Those homes were selling for $10,000 to $16,000. The sellers were angry and said that Tommy should not have sold their properties. The city officials even threatened to stop auctions. If you go back to those homes today, you will notice that they have all been bulldozed, because there was no demand to meet the supply. It is difficult for sellers to accept that their homes are no longer as valuable as they once were. If those homes were bulldozed, then that tells Bruce that the value of those homes was not even $10,000 fifteen years later, it was zero.
Tommy has many stories about investors who bought properties at a discount, and then sold through an auction for more than double what they bought those properties for just 90 days before.
Not all auctions are created equal. There is a company in California that buys homes in ballroom auctions, and then re-auctions those homes for a profit. Tommy auctions properties right in front of the house. History has proven to him that this method brings in the greatest net value. All real estate is local. The people within walking distance of your home are the biggest supporters you can have for that neighborhood. When people discover that you can walk down to a property and buy it for what you are willing to give, they become happy bidders. When you move a property to a ballroom auction, the auction may take place hundreds of miles from where the property is. This discourages local buyers, which are the best buyers, from coming.
The real estate market place changes very fast. An auction company as big as Williams and Williams is able to quickly look at trends in different states. Every month, Tommy’s company sells over 1,000 homes throughout the United States. These auctions allow him to determine when a disaster or boom is coming.
If a builder auctions a track of houses, the public will think the builder is in trouble. However, Tommy feels this is irrelevant. Auctioning might still be the best business decision they will ever make. They should go ahead with the auction, and allow their buyers to pay what they are willing to. Bruce can guarantee that in 2005-2006 builders never got full price for a house. The builders could not build fast enough, so they gave their 20 buyers a lottery number and then allowed the winner to buy for full price. If the builders had put those 20 buyers up against each other at an auction, who knows how much more those homes would have sold for. Auctions are incredibly value in an increasing market, because they allow you to see how much people think your house is worth at that moment. If you interfere, you put a sealing on your home value, which could be very low.
Tommy believes buyers often feel that auction results are manipulated. Tommy would blame the auction industry for that buyer mentality, because in the past, auctions have not been conducted in the right manner. If you are going to hire an auction company, check how long they have been in that location, and check their references. Talk to other people who used the company to sell in the past.
Online auctions are becoming more popular, and it can reduce the level of trust that a buyer will have in the auction company, especially if that auction company has a bad history.
Tommy auctions off a lot of privately owned properties. He did not start selling bank owned properties until about six years ago. His company is built around selling private property.
Too many people look at life in the short term. The auction profession has an unlimited amount of potential, and he would encourage any of his children to get into it. However, you have to enter this business with a long term plan. Before this year ends, Williams and Williams will begin to broadcast their auctions live, so anyone in the world can bid. This technology may cause some bidders to feel like they are being tricked, because they will not be able to see all the bidders making offers. Tommy is trying to obtain technology that will allow the bidders at the auction site to see the activity of the online bidders.
Bruce feels it is unfortunate that auction companies too often view each other as nothing more than competitors. Tommy believes there are many ethical auction companies out there, which he is willing to refer people to. We need to have a spirit of good will towards other people. When you are trying to tear down your competitor, you tear down yourself.
Lenders have come to the conclusion that they do not want to take a property back as an REO. These people would make a great team member with an auction company. Lenders are becoming more willing to accept the value given to them at an auction.
Tommy is now getting involved in the Assisted Sales Auction Program. This process involves a person who still owns and occupies a property, but is trying to accomplish a short sale. Bruce thinks that is a trend that makes a lot of sense. Bruce was on a panel with someone who was touting that they could get a sell done within six months through the HAFA program. This made Bruce laugh on the inside, because he wanted to say that he knew someone who could get the job done quicker.
Thank you Tommy for participating in The Norris Group’s radio show. Tommy will be on the panel for I Survived 2010.
For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.
Thank you for being a Gold Sponsor for I Survived Real Estate 2010: Delmae Properties, Elite Auctions, Entrust California, Inland Empire Investors Forum, Keystone CPA, Las Brisas Escrow, Leivas Financial Services, Mike Cantu, North San Diego Real Estate Investors Association, Northern California Real Estate Investors Association, Personal Real Estate Investor Magazine, Realty 411 Magazine, San Jose Real Estate Investor Association, Starz Photography, Tony Alvarez, and Westin South Coast Plaza.
Rick SolisAppraiser and Investor |
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This week Bruce is joined once again by Rick Solis. Rick wears many hats. He is a real estate investor, he is the appraiser for all of TNG’s hard money loans, and he occasionally trains people to appraise in TNG’s REO investing boot camps.
Rick bought his first house a week after his 20th birthday. This house was in Montclair. He sold it at the peak of the market, but then 10-31 exchanged the money from that property into another one, and eventually lost all the profit. He owed approximately $250,000 for the Montclair property in 1988, and he sold it for $450,000. He was paying for the home with the tenant, so they split the profit earning $100,000 each. In 1988, he read the Robert Allen books. Using that information, he found a realtor who helped him get a loan for this house.
The books Rick read helped him to think creatively about investment. However, Rick no longer uses creative investment techniques. Today, Rick is primarily concerned with buying properties below market. When you invest creatively, you usually owe 100 percent of what it is worth, and you do not have an equity option.
Rick and Bruce first met at a Nick Manfredi meeting in which Bruce spoke. Bruce was offering a deal on his product Selling Systems. Rick bought the book, and liked it so much that he came back and bought the rest of Bruce’s books.
Rick had a difficult time building an investment relationship with Bruce. The first time Rick asked Bruce to help him invest in a property, Rick was looking at a 5-unit property in San Bernardino. After describing the property, Bruce simply said, “No, that is not something I would be interested in.” Bruce thinks he might need to do a better job of explaining his decisions in the future. The reason why Bruce was not interested in this property was because he had previously tried buying similar properties in San Bernardino and that experience did not end well. Sometimes investors just get used to a specific niche and choose not to work with anything else.
Bruce bought a lot of 4-plexes in Moreno Valley during the 1990s. He sold these properties for $139,000, and their value peaked at $600,000. One of these properties recently opened for bid at a trustee sale for 1 dollar. This type of property has a tendency to cause a domino effect for other similar properties in the area; when one goes bad the rest usually follow. A lot of towns just tear these properties down.
Rick met Andrea at a book store in 2003. Rick told Andrea about Bruce’s boot camp, and she decided to attend it. At that time, the boot camp was pretty basic, but it told you exactly what you need to know when buying houses.
In the past, Rick advertised through the newspaper. Andrea advertised through letter campaigns. When Rick started working with Andrea, they were doing 1,000 letters per week, and they averaged 4 to 6 houses per month using this method. Their business relationship worked to their advantage, because some people do not want to work with men, and others do not want to work with women. Rick and Andrea have very different selling strategies. Rick’s selling strategy is straight forward; he looks at what you have and gives you an offer. Andrea can sell anything to anyone, even at a discounted price. Andrea’s ability to sell is more than a technique, it is a natural gift.
The longer Rick and Andrea did letter campaigns, the harder it got. When they first started they could find plenty of people with just a couple hundred, but by 2007 the lettering campaign become too expensive to pay for itself.
Most of the properties they bought were flipped in 2006. One of these properties was flipped to Bruce’s auction, and it worked very well for Rick. Unfortunately, the auctioning business did not work well for Bruce. Bruce started an auctioning business with high hopes, but discovered that it was very difficult to attract buyers. Rick tried helping Bruce by wearing TNG t-shirts and posting signs, but he was only able to get a couple people to attend his auction.
At the end of the boom, Rick got cocky because of how easy it was to buy and sell. Rick decided to 10-31 exchange into other properties in order to avoid taxes. Unfortunately, he reinvested too much and he lost a lot of the profit he gained from his California properties. Next time, Rick plans to just sell his properties, pay the taxes, and live happily with that.
Rick finds all his properties through the MLS. Sometimes agents bring deals to Rick. Lots of investors are entering the real estate business. About ¾ of the buyers are investors now. Unfortunately, many investor offers do not close. Some agents are now refusing to accept offers from investors now, because of the bad reputation investors now have for not closing.
Right now, the best-working strategy for Rick seems to be driving around and looking at properties. He does this 1 day per week, and Andrea does this 3 days per week. They both buy 3 properties per month. They hold 2/3 of them as rentals, and they intend to sell them as prices increase. After the next price increase, Rick intends to sell all of his properties and stop.
Rick and Andrea invest in the High Desert area. There are not many resale opportunities in that area, so they are primarily renting there. Many of the people in that area have bad credit, and will probably always be renters. Andrea has a sixth sense for knowing when a person is going to be a good renter. She is able to meet the potential renters, look at their application, call their employers and their landlords to see if they will be good renters for Rick and her.
Rick decided to quit investing in real estate around 2007, but Andrea continued. Andrea got great deals on six houses last year, and she was able to convince Rick to start investing again.
Business is completely different now. It is a much bigger challenge now to deal with owners and resale. Rick thinks this aspect of the business will become easier in the coming years.
Rick has been using his IRA to invest in mortgages since 2000. He began using his IRA to invest in houses since 2003.
Rick’s target rental property is less than half an acre. Properties with lots of land have a tendency to collect lots of junk. He prefers single story houses, and he is completely uninterested in rental properties with pools. Rick does not like investing in houses built before 1978, and he prefers the house’s square feet to be between 1,000 to 1,800.
In the High Desert, Rick typically gets 1 house for every 10 offers he makes. In areas near Fontana and Corona, Rick typically gets 1 house for every 50 offers. Rick does not make offers before he has seen the home and made repair estimates.
Rick likes Tony Alvarez’s business model, because Tony gets properties to cash flow. Rick does not like the buying, fixing, and selling business model right now, because it is very difficult to get to the finish line with a first time buyer, FHA loan, two appraisals and a review appraisal.
For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.
Rick SolisAppraiser and Investor |
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This week Bruce is joined by Rick Solis. Rick wears many hats. He is a real estate investor, he is the appraiser for all of The Norris Group’s California hard money loans, and he occasionally trains people to appraise in The Norris Group’s REO boot camps.
Rick started appraising because his mother was a loan processor when he was a teenager. He was also interested in investing, but he was overpaying for properties. He began appraising to become a better investor. When he first began his appraising career, the only thing you needed to be an appraiser was a clipboard and a tape measurer. However, Rick believes that appraisal qualities were better back then than now with all the education requirements. In the past, appraisers had to be approved by each bank you wanted to appraise for, and you had to submit six work samples to prove you were able to do the job. Once licensing came into play, the banks eased off of those restrictions.
Rick closed escrow on his first house 1 week after his 20th birthday. Rick became attracted to the real estate business because of infomercials from Dave Deldado and Robert Allen.
Rick enjoys working with hard money lenders, because they actually want to know what the property is worth and what is wrong with it. That is the complete opposite of an A-paper appraisal job. All people involved in the A-paper transaction, other than the investor, do not want to know that information, because that information can kill the deals. Information like termite problems cannot be disclosed on an appraisal.
The investor is typically a private person with money, but you can also have a hard money loan with a different kind of intent. Some lenders are pressured to provide lenders with a specific appraisal value. Rick has had this experience with lenders in the past. Those lenders put a lot of pressure on appraisers, but he does not receive that kind of pressure from The Norris Group’s loan processor. Craig, TNG’s loan processor, would rather skip a deal than skew appraisal values.
In May, HVCC was passed. This new rule requires appraisal management companies to check on all appraisals for accuracies. Unfortunately, appraisal management companies are taking 40 percent of the earnings from appraisals, which means they must work much harder to earn the same income. This has caused many of the veteran appraisers to leave the business. Rick knows an appraiser who has found a way to cope with HVCC and make his job more efficient. This appraiser only takes appraisals that are close to him, and he looks at the properties before he accepts it. If there is anything wrong with the property he is looking at, the appraiser will skip it.
People often think of the appraisal process as being easy, because now they can push a button on Zillow which gives an estimated home value. However, this is very inaccurate. It is very difficult to come up with an accurate appraisal. It is also difficult to make an appraisal which meets all the guidelines of the lender and the investor who the lender is selling to.
FHA significantly loosened their requirements in the early 2000s. FHA once had a 2-page checklist of everything you had to check for on a property. For example, if the crawl space under the house didn’t have 18 inches of clearance the house had to be fixed. If there was any chipped paint on the house it would need to be fixed. However, they will allow some things like dirty carpet. FHA will accept non-permitted home modifications just as long as there are no health hazards. However, many banks and underwriters will not accept that. If non-permitted additions add value to a house, then you are supposed to account for it in an appraisal. It is very difficult to find comparable houses for a house with non-permitted additions.
In the current market, if your house is in average condition, there is not much you can do on repairs which will add a significant amount of value to your house. However, if your house is in bad condition then you can get a decent return on the cost of repairs. Regardless of how much money you’ve spent rehabbing, appraisers will not adjust the price by any more than 10 percent.
Cost basis appraisals are no longer being used. No appraiser who spends half his day looking for land sales is going to come up with an accurate land value.
Bruce Norris brings up an example for when the cost based appraisal may be useful…
Bruce: “If you were making an offer on a custom home, and you wanted the lot value to be emerged from what a custom home would be once it is done, then that would be like a residual value. This could be used to prove to a lot owner that it was once worth x value, but once you subtract the costs and the appraisal then the lot will be worth x. ‘Is that a useful idea?’”
Rick: “Possibly.”
Rick has never done this kind of appraisal, but Bruce wants him to. If you can look at the comps and subtract the costs, then you will have the residual dirt value. Rick thinks that is so simple that you probably wouldn’t need an appraiser to do it.
Around 2006, people were concerned about buying homes with awkward floor plans. Currently, investors no longer seem to be concerned by this. This may be due to the fact that these types of homes represent the largest portion of the current “for sale” market. They are taking a price hit on those homes, but they are still able to make a profit.
Appraisers account for pool values using comps. For example, if an appraiser is looking at two homes that are very similar except for the fact that one has a pool and the other does not, then the pool value will be calculated by subtracting the value of the home without a pool from the value of the home with the pool. If the home without a pool has a value of $200,000, and the value of the home with a pool is $210,000, then the value of the pool is $10,000. The value of a pool can change dramatically depending on where you live. In some areas a pool adds little value to the home, but in other areas a pool can add a lot of value. Rick has noticed that pools typically add up to 0 to 5 percent of the house. Also, the value of a pool can change dramatically depending on what season you sell in. If you sell during a hot season, the pool will be more valuable.
The number of bedrooms within a house does not affect the price much. The square footage of a house is more important the number of rooms within it. Some families like two big bedrooms more than 3 small ones, and vice versa.
If you are appraising a property as an investor, avoid location problems. Stay away from atypical problems, especially problems that cannot be fixed. Old homes surrounded by new homes will not sell well, and dome home styles don’t sell well either.
Investors often make the mistake of assuming that an old remodeled home will sell for the same value as a new home in the same condition. Newer homes will always sell at a higher value.
Mello-roos homes can also be a detriment to home value. However, a lot of first time buyers do not always notice this difference.
For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.
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This week Bruce is joined by Bill Shipp. Bill has been investing in Riverside real estate for many years. Bruce thinks Bill is Riverside’s best kept secret.
Bill believes it is important to be true to your word when doing business. Bill has been working with his contractors for 10 years, and he has never had a bid on a home repair. These contractors know that if Bill hires them, they will get paid at the time he specifies. This is even more important than having people skills.
Bruce has taught many real estate investors. Some of them have great people skills, and that is what gets them business. There are also people that are trustworthy, and that is also attractive to business partners.
In the last segment, Bill said that he is willing to do his job every day, and that attitude has allowed him to accumulate a wealth of knowledge. Bill’s knowledge of his market place allows him to live in Utah while still making good investment decisions in Riverside.
Bill has never closed an escrow with a person in it, and he has never bought a house at the steps. Bill does not want to deal with those hassles. This is why he uses the MLS and agents who know what they are doing. Bill gets over 50 percent of the houses that he makes offers on, because his realtors know not to call him unless a home shows promise. Bill works regularly with two realtors, but he receives calls occasionally from other REO agents as well.
Bill has a specific skew number for the paint which he uses on all his houses. Because he uses the same paint for his houses, it is easier for him to calculate how much repairs will cost when buying a new home. This also makes it much simpler for his repair men, because they know exactly what to do for every new job.
Bill discourages investors from traveling to see their investments. Do it for the first two properties, so you can figure out how to do the job. After the second, you should know what kind of property is worth your time, and trust your contractor to do his job. Traveling to your investment homes will cost you money and time. Also, Bill suggests that investors not bring their wives. His wife always has minor problems with his investments, such as the amount of flowers in the yard.
The typical repair cost for Bill’s investment houses is $15,000 or less. However, he has had home repairs that cost $100,000. In the early 2000s, he bought older homes. The oldest home he ever bought was developed in 1828. The house was so old that the home began to dissolve when the repair man tried to pressure wash it. Bruce once bought a home in 1898. Bruce had a termite investor inspect the home, and the inspector told him that there were no termites because the wood was petrified.
Bill does not have a construction background, but he has learned some things about that trade over time. When you buy a lot of older homes, you have to be creative to find a style that people will want to buy. In the late 1980s, Bill only bought homes that were 5 to 10 years old and did not need work, but Bill now only works with fixers built before the 2000s. Bill does not like to compete with home owners. When you are flipping new homes, you are not creating value. Bill thinks that working in the trustee market requires too much work. This is what Bruce’s company does, and Bruce agrees that the trustee market is too much hassle for Bill’s business model.
When reselling a property, Bill uses the listing agent that found the home for him, and he only uses two agents to keep the process simple. Using a large number of agents makes it difficult to determine whether or not those agents are doing their jobs correctly.
When Bill is selling his properties, he tries to control the escrow, but he never controls which lender is used. Bill’s buyers are always cross checked with the lender. Bill’s agent will not tell him that he has an offer until the buyer has been cross checked, and until he can know if he will get a good offer.
Bill is constantly educating himself in real estate. He reads many books, he has attended Bruce’s seminars, and he has been trained as a certified financial planner. Bill believes that many people know how to make a lot of money, but they do not know how to spend it. People do not often plan for downturns in the market, and their lack of planning ruins their financial health.
In the early 1990s, Bill had 40 rentals. It took 8 years to get those homes sold, and it was very frustrating because the market kept going down.
Bill began investing in Texas during 1989. He bought homes for $10,000 each and he owned them free and clear, but he was receiving negative cashflow every month because of property taxes. Repairing one roof could wipe out your positive cashflow for a year. In the end, he only made money on one of those homes. Do not buy real estate in other cities and states if you do not know what you are doing.
In 1986 Bruce was asked to speak on a panel of real estate experts. There were two well known attorneys on the panel, and all of their claims regarding out-of-state property ownership contradicted Bruce’s practical experience. When Bruce asked those attorneys how they came to their conclusions, he discovered that they had no out-of-state investment experience and were relying on theoretical knowledge. When people come from other states and tell you to buy homes in their areas, be careful. Why would someone travel across the United States to encourage you to buy their property if they cannot even get the people from their own state to buy?
If there are more listings in a region than sells, you should be nervous. On the other hand, if there are more sells than listings, then you should be happy. This is all Bill looks at when predicting whether or not he should be investing. Bill does not pay much attention to economic forecasts. He only pays attention to Riverside’s market, so he does not have to worry about general market forecasts.
The best deal Bill ever had was a wholesale in Corona. The property sold in 2 weeks and he earned over $100,000. If you want to find deals, you need to be watching the market every day. You never know why a seller might want to get rid of their property quickly. An agent once called Bill and told him that the seller was offering five houses and two lots on one street. The seller was the chairman of a bank who had stock options which were about to expire. The banker needed the money for those properties quickly, so that he could buy his stock. This deal shows that you never know why and when a great deal is going to show up. Bruce once bought a house from an agent once who was getting into the plastic extrusion business. The agent needed to buy an extrusion machine for $10,000, so Bruce bought two of his homes for that amount.
Bill has been approached with bulk buying opportunities over the last few months. The people offering these bulk buy deals told Bill that they have had bulk buys in the past that sold quickly. When Bill asked for an example of one of these bulk deals, he never received a response and he still hasn’t. Bill received a bulk buy opportunity from a company in Los Angeles as well. Because the company seemed professional, Bill had his agent check out the properties. The agent discovered that all 20 of the properties for bulk sale were short sales.
Bruce will be a moderator for Fannie and Freddie in June. These companies are putting together bulk sale divisions, so perhaps bulk sale opportunities will be available in the future.
For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.
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This week Bruce is joined by Bill Shipp. Bill has been investing in Riverside real estate for many years. Bruce thinks Bill is Riverside’s best kept secret.
Bill began flipping homes in 1986. He did his first flip deal when he was 18 years old. He had a family member who had bought the lot but could not afford it, so Bill agreed to buy it for 2,600 dollars and he sold it a couple years later for $6,000.
Before his first real estate investment, Bill was an airforce brat. He moved around a lot which made him wish he could own a house. Prior to 1986, Bill was working a corporate job and strongly disliked it. He had a good friend who was a real estate investor in the Long Beach area. This friend encouraged Bill to learn real estate. Bill’s friend explained that Bill would most likely not become very wealthy if he continued to work in the corporate world, and he would always have to worry about his job security. If you own your own business of buying and selling real estate you can never get fired. This encouraged Bill to quit his job and begin working as a real estate agent.
Bill did learn some important lessons from the corporate world. He learned to run his real estate business the same way as if he was working a corporate job. He did not sleep in just because he owned his own business. He would begin working at 8, and he worked normal hours.
Bill’s mentor taught him how to buy homes, and how to figure out prices and fixing costs. His mentor was very regimented. If Bill was even a minute late, his mentor would leave him. Bill listened to all of his mentor’s phone calls, and he learned how he conducted business with other visitors.
Bill’s mentor never got into educating people. He simply picked a few people that he new personally to work with him. Bill thinks he was the lucky person to be picked by this mentor because he showed good discipline.
Bill has bought and sold 360 houses. He does not have make many deals in which he personally speaks to the home owners he buys from; he probably only talks about 10 percent of these home owners. He never used mailers or signs.
If Bill was beginning to invest in Riverside with all his current knowledge, he would first call his agent and show them his accomplishments. Agents hear from many people who claim to be real estate investors but are not truly serious. For this reason, Bill keeps a portfolio of every house he has bought and sold. He shows this portfolio to agents during interviews. He then tries to persuade these agents that working with him is a good idea. He interviews multiple agents until he finds a couple of agents who are willing to be trained for his specific style of work.
Bill has not tried to develop relationships with people who control the most popular sources of REOs, but his name is somewhat well known by these people because of the business he does.
A typical investor will receive a call from an agent in which the agent explains what kinds of new inventory have recently come up. This agent might tell the investor that 20 new listings showed up. The agent and the investor would then look at many of those houses and attempt to narrow down their options. The kind of calls that Bill receives from his agents is very different. Bill’s agents will tell him which one of those 20 properties he would most likely be interested in. Bill would then ask who is listing the home, and the realtor would be able to tell him whether or not he had done business with that person previously. His Realtor would also be able to tell him what kind of neighborhood it is in, and whether or not he has done business in that area before. This Realtor would also give him a description of the other houses on sale in that area, the price they are listed at, and a description of the property Bill wants to buy. He would then make an offer slightly below the typical asking price of that neighborhood, and his offer would be made within just a few hours of being listed. This is how you beat the competition. You have to be able to make offers and close deals before the competition arrives.
What really gives Bill an advantage over his competition is the ability of his realtors to identify houses within specific streets of his city. Bill’s realtors are so familiar with their areas that they can look at a specific street, compare the prices of the other properties for sale on that street, and quickly determine whether or not a specific house is a good deal.
Agents are often skeptical of whether or not there are whole sale deals on the market. Part of the problems is that they are not disciplined, they are not experienced, and they are not accustomed to doing their job every day. It takes time for agents to spot a good deal quickly. Bill can buy properties out of the MLS even when the market is going up, and people claim there is no way to find a deal. When Bill told Bruce this in 2004, Bruce was very surprised and it taught him something.
During the real estate boom, everyone was an investor; you did not need to be good at investing during that time to make money. During that time, Bill was not worried about competition because there was so much business.
Name familiarity is very important when dealing with people who control the source of inventory. People who know Bill know that he has only backed out of 1 offer in his entire real estate career. If people know you are going to go through with your offers, they will be more willing to do business with you.
Bill typically puts a $5,000 deposit on his offers regardless of the home price. Bill recently lost an offer to someone who gave an offer for 100 percent of the purchase price. This was an investor trained by Bruce Norris.
Bill usually offers a 10 day close, or the seller’s preference. He has actually lost offers in the past because the bank felt the closing time was too quick, so allowing the seller to choose the closing time is best.
When Bill discovers that he has made an offer on a property with multiple offers, he simply responds by giving them his highest and best offer. Bill doesn’t have a problem with making only $20,000 on a property which gives him an advantage when making offers. Some investors will not bother making a deal if they cannot buy it for 62 percent of the price.
Bill may be one of the biggest investors in California, but he actually lives in Utah. He has developed a business model which does not need him to make full time deals. Bill cannot think of anyone with a business model like this, and that is why he sticks to one city. Having all his properties within a very specific region allows him to easily manage all his properties. Bill does not invest at all in Utah.
Bill typically buys under the $200,000 price range. Many of his buyers are FHA buyers, and many of them are conventional. When the market gets slow, Bill does not fight it, he just quits and waits until things pick up. Bill did have some trouble getting back into the market not long ago, because many rules had changed since his last transaction. When Bill re-entered the market, the 90 day FHA rule was still in place, and Bill did not know about it. His first offer was an FHA and the appraisal came in $15,000 low. He chose to be satisfied with the $10,000 dollars he made off the property and move on. Bill encourages people to not fall in love with their properties, so they will make smart selling decisions. Bill decided to leave the market in 2007 because he was receiving multiple offers on all his homes, and the offers were too high. Things were getting too crazy. When Bill looked at the loan documents, his buyers would have a 10 percent interest rate with a 700 FICO score. Bill wanted to tell these people, “What are you thinking?”
Bill does not buy and hold rentals. Bruce thinks that is interesting because many people think that is the best way to invest. Bill believes that if you are a full time investor, flipping houses will be more profitable then renting. However, renting is a good option for passive investors. Passive investing is what Bill did when he first started investing. When he first starting buying properties, he bought 45 rentals and he eventually ended up with negative cash flow. When times get tough, people start moving which leaves you with vacant rentals.
For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.
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This week Bruce is joined by Chief Econ0mist for the California Association of Realtors, Leslie Appleton-Young.
The peak of the median home price in May 2007 was almost $600,000. Bruce believes there were indications that we were no longer in the peak in May 2007 despite the fact that median prices reached that level. Transactions slowed in the 4th quarter of 2005. In Sacramento, there was a lot of new construction, affordable housing, and subprime borrowing. In areas like Sacramento, homes were purchased in 2003 and 2004, but they began adjusting in 2006. These properties started faltering for a full year before they showed up in the data. Sales at the moderate and low end shrunk, but sales at the high end were doing fine, so the median home price became skewed. Prices went down in 2007 and 2008, but at the same time, sales were increasing by over 25 percent.
We have never experienced a price decline like this recent one. However, the San Fernando Valleys had a significant drop in 1990’s when there were fires, floods and riots. At that time, the median went from $225,000 to $165,000 in that area.
There are many owners who put down 20 percent on their home, but now owe more than their house is worth. There were people with good jobs and good mortgages, but got in trouble once prices decreased. In the future, we need to be more aware of cash-out refis. People who had equity would use it for vacations and toys rather than investment. We had such a long run –up in price that people began to think that real estate could not hurt them. They thought that pulling out equity now would be replaced by more equity later, and that was not true.
There are many people who are defaulting strategically presently, because they don’t want to pay for a property which won’t return to its previous value in many years. However, you have to weigh this benefit against the damage done to your credit. Strategic defaults are becoming more prevalent, and it is becoming more socially acceptable. It was once considered bad to choose to stop paying on a mortgage, but now people find it acceptable. Fannie Mae just came out with a statement which allows people to get financing within 2 years if you will give a deed-in-lieu of foreclosure. This new rules will come into affect July 1st. The new mortgage you get in 2 years will likely require 20 percent down.
Distressed sales have never been this high. ForeclosureRadar.com provides a tremendous educational opportunity for those interested in learning about the distressed sales market. In areas like Riverside, distressed sales represent nearly 80 percent of all sales. Short sales are also beginning to increase.
Distressed sales have been more common in the lower end of the market. However, now that the downturn has been going on for so long, foreclosures are becoming more common in the upper end of the market.
In Riverside County, there are approximately 3,000 homes with over 3,000 square feet which are pending for sale. Bruce doubts that we have buyers for all those homes, and the loan balance for many of those homes is probably over $1 million. Bruce thinks that we are going to have a price hit and glut of inventory in the upper end of the market.
Leslie thinks that first time buyers are in good shape with the stimulus package, but the trade-up buyers are having trouble. When you have a median price of $600,000 and the government programs are specifically designed to help people that owe less than the Fannie Mae maximum loan balance, then you are probably missing 35 percent of the market. People who owe $1 million dollars have no encouragement to buy again. Bruce thinks that having a home above 3,500 sq. feet will be less meaningful in appraisal values than ever before.
The spread in the jumbo loan market has come down to 1 percent. Many of these borrowers are putting down 30 to 40 percent down for jumbo loans. To get those loans, you need to have a large down payment and a strong FICO score. Many loans are being held in portfolio by the lender, because they want to have a cushion going forward.
People have different reasons for buying now than they did in 2006. People are not buying homes expecting to get rich off of their homes. They thought they could sell their homes once the interest adjusts or refinance, and when the adjustment time came, neither of those options were available. Now people realize that they are not going to get rich over night just because they own a house, and they are looking for a place to raise a family.
There is a strong disconnect in the mind of a person in congress between the word investor and speculator. In this market, the speculator has gone home, but investors are working to fix up houses and they are needed. Banks do not have the resources to rehab and get homes onto the market in a timely fashion.
Bruce will be a moderator on an interestingly panel coming up in June for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. These two companies are starting bulk divisions. Bruce wonders what size of bulk deals they are planning for, and whether or not there will be restrictions on detaining those properties. Bruce is not sure when Fannie and Freddie will finalize their decision on this subject. Bruce is also trying to get Sean O’toole from ForeclosureRadar.com to be a moderator as well. REO agents can benefit from listing homes ten at a time, rather than 1 at a time. There is a huge chunk of negative equity properties that need to get through the process, and anything that speeds that process up in a reasonable manner is a good thing.
There are many people in California who are showing tremendous character by paying for an upside down property. The best way to reward these people is to show them that there is hope for equity replacement in the near future.
60 percent of people are not buying homes, yet very few are renters. Leslie thinks many of these people are moving in with their parents and children. The housing downturn has affected very aspect of the economy, so people need to save.
There is a statistic showing that 200,000 homes are built every year. Builders are looking at this statistic and thinking they need to build more houses, but you have to be more realistic than that. The reason why builders aren’t building homes is because nobody is willing to buy. However, all these people that have moved in with their families to save money will someday want to move out. We are artificially skewing our building to the low side right now. There will be a day when builders will be behind the curve, and demand will accelerate far faster than the inventory.
Many jobs have been lost in the California construction industry, but these jobs are starting to return. Leslie thinks that this industry will make a comeback in a few years. We need to make jobs from new products and services. We usually expect construction to provide jobs at the end of a downturn, but that will probably not happen this time. Consumer confidence increased in March, but it is still only half of what it was one year ago. The opportunity for builders lies in creating multigenerational housing.
A report was just made on the demographics of California through 2050. The numbers show that we are very different from the other states, and that we will probably grow. Our growth will cause more demand for housing, but it will not happen over the next few years because of the problems we’ve had.
In Riverside, unemployment is close to 15 percent, but that probably translates to around 20 percent because many people have stopped looking for jobs. Riverside County used to be the leading county in California in regards to employment growth. People will always migrate to places with more jobs. California is currently losing people to other states with better employment. Uhaul recently came up with a report on moving destinations, and one of the top destinations was Sacramento. People are moving there because housing is more affordable and they have been able to find some sort of employment. It will take time to work through California’s negative equity position, but we will improve eventually.
Unemployment is usually an instigator of foreclosure, but this time unemployment has lagged from foreclosure yet is increasing the problem. There are areas that were not subprime focused that are being dragged into the overall problem because prices have gone down.
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This week Bruce is joined by Chief Econ0mist for the California Association of Realtors, Leslie Appleton-Young.
Leslie has had a tough job for the past few years, but things have changed for the better this year. Leslie can see the light at the end of the tunnel, and people’s expectations of the market have become more realistic. People are not as afraid of the downturn. However, she does not feel that this is true in all price bands. Over the next 24 months, the upper end of the market will experience many more price reductions. In the moderate to low end of the distressed market, Leslie predicts that prices will remain flat, and possibly increase slightly. The upper end of the market has seen some adjustment, but nothing like the lower end of the market. As the economic turmoil hits upper end markets, sellers will have to be more realistic about what they expect to get for their homes. In Riverside, there are some great homes with loans on them worth $1.5 million, but they cannot even sell for $700,000.
The lower price, subprime inventory has been absorbed, and that part of the market seems to be coming back. The stimulus for first time buyers and the decreased rates have had a significant influence on home purchases.
Every area in California is unique and different, but the dichotomy in today’s housing market has more to do with price than location. Part of the problem is that people are having trouble qualifying for loans. Demand for homes at the low end of the market exceeds the supply, but the opposite is true for the high end.
In the past, Bruce has found that inventory levels are pretty accurate leading statistics. When you are below a certain months level of inventory, you can often reasonably assume that things will turn around. There are a lot of lenders with properties that are not on the market. Default rates have also exploded, but the lenders will not file NODs. There is a penned up group of buyers, and there may also be a penned up group of buyers. Leslie thinks that government intervention will determine how this problem is rectified. It is difficult to predict how the government will deal with this problem.
California has benefited from the stimulus programs. We are starting to see more green shoots, and Leslie thinks that the iPad may have positively affected our economy. The state deficit has decreased over the last few months. California is an outlier. We boom harder, we sell more, and we improve quicker. However, our recovery is generally rather flat. We had a 5.9 percent GDP growth in the 4th quarter of 2009, and 4 percent of that was inventory restocking. Leslie wonders how much of our retail sales growth is tied to all those homes that are behind on their mortgages. We are not out of this downturn yet, but we are improving. The government stimulus is going away, and that is why there is some uncertainty about the outcome of the second half of this year. We will likely see interest rates increase. They have already increased a bit, but only by a quarter point. If interest rates climbed above 6 percent, Leslie thinks that there would be a strong negative reaction in the market.
Sometimes when rates increase, people feel encouraged to buy before rates become unreasonable. It is important for people to remember that it is not clear that prices have bottomed in all categories, but it is pretty clear that rates will be higher in a year than they are now. People need to measure the tradeoff between the cost of increased rates and decreased prices.
When Bruce became an investor, he refinanced his home in 1981 at 17.5 percent. One year later, he was delighted to refinance at 12.5. Very smart people told him that rates would never go below 10 percent, but now many people would feel jipped if they bought at a rate above 6 percent even though that is a historically incredible rate.
One thing that is really different this time around is the role of equity, or the lack of it, has played in the cycle. If you don’t have equity, you are not a homeowner. The policies for home buying and selling during the boom caused many of our current problems. When you have to pony up 20 percent, and you have equity in your home, you treat home buying and selling very differently than someone who is buying without documentation and zero down. In 2006, 40 percent of Realtors working with first time home buyers said that the buyers did not put down any money.
Bruce thinks the timing of the no down program was atrocious, because the price to income level was absurd. However, Bruce actually thinks we should have a no-down program in our current market. We have to create households that are fit to own. We have just taken back hundreds of thousands of homes from people that wanted to be owners, which are now credit damaged and cannot re-enter the market. We could make a no-down payment program, but when somebody doesn’t make a payment, we could let the loan go forward to the next owner without qualifying just like how the FHA once operated. The other option is to let the opening bid for the next 5 years to consist of just the late payment. If we used this program, there would never be an REO. The nothing down program would create a lot of interest in new owners, and we might retain the current percentage of homeownership that we already have. Bruce fears that we will have a national decline in the 62 percent range, and California will have another downturn in homeownership. Bruce loves the statistics that Leslie puts out.
There is a big difference between the net dollar amount coming to the seller now in comparison to the past. It was once around $200,000, but now its only about $50,000. One-third of these sellers sold at a lost. This creates a negative perspective on real estate which discourages people from investing in a home in the future. In a recent survey, 60 percent of past homebuyers claimed to have no future interest in buying again.
California homes are very affordable right now, because of the price decrease and the low interest rates. However, we are still feeling that it is necessary to encourage potential buyers to enter the market. The tax credit was truly a present to first time buyers. First time buyers are now approximately 50 percent of the volume of current home buyers.
We now have a healthy volume of sells. For 19 consecutive months, we have had a pace of over 500,000. We never even passed the 500,000 pace until 1999. The accumulative dollars are very different now from the peak. Commissions earned by realtors are very different from 2006 and 2007. Incomes have changed the membership of CAR, but not as much as Leslie was expecting. In 2007, there were 211,000 realtors in California. This year, we will probably have around 172,000. That is a significant drop, but considering the significant drop in profit volume, that is a rather small drop. This isn’t surprising though because the economy has not left with people with many other job options. If you work hard enough, you can still be successful. This market works well for the first time agent because there are a lot of first time buyers.
Website presence is critical right now. A recent buyers’ survey asked, “Did you look in the newspaper during your home search?” The results showed that only 10 percent of people were using the paper as a reference. People are searching for homes using very different methods, but it is actually very cheap to advertise online. All of the brokerages have cut back on overhead and expenses. A realtor may not have an office, but they can still be visible online if they have a laptop.
The internet has allowed the consumer to shop around without spending the realtor’s time. However, Leslie has found that 85 percent of home buyers were shown their current home by an agent. Perhaps the internet is presenting too much information for uneducated buyers. Also, in a market where properties are selling quickly, you need to have an agent helping you to be the first potential buyer in line.
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This week Bruce is joined again this week by Robert J. Samuelson. Robert is an award winning columnist and author. He has been writing a column for The Washington Post since 1977, and for Newsweek since 1984. He has recently published a book named The Great Inflation and Its Aftermath: The Past and Future of American Influence.
One of the main claims in Samuelson’s recent book is that the rise and fall of inflation was the most significant event in the past 50 years. When most people think of the fall of inflation, they think of a very short time. One of Samuelson’s key points is that there was nothing usual about the last 25 years. Samuelson thinks the fall of inflation was even more important than the rise of inflation.
In the early 80s, inflation was reaching 15 percent, mortgage rates were around 15 percent, and the prime rate for good bank customers was over 20 percent. When inflation came down, interest rates came down slowly, because no one believed that inflation would come down. Asset prices, beginning with the stock market, began to increase during this time. The Dow Jones industrial average was between 800 and 900. There was an explosion in the stock market over the next 20 years. By 2000, the Dow was over 10,000. Stock market wealth within households went from about $1 trillion in the 80s to over $11 trillion at the end of the 90s.
Later, this increase in stock values lead to an increase in real estate values. For many years, consumers spent more of their income and borrowed more. There were only 2 modest recessions during this time in 1991 and 2001. This increase in wealth made people very careless. It conditioned them to take risks which they should not have taken, because they believed the economy had entered into a state of prolonged prosperity.
If you have a feeling of preordained success about an investment, you are probably ignoring a lot of the risk factors you would normally pay attention too. People thought that risk had gone down because of lower inflation. They also felt that they understood risk better. People then began to take more risks because of these two false assumptions. Lenders began to lend money to people with high levels of debt, and they did it with silly and destructive interest rates. People assumed that stock prices would increase forever. For many years, Samuelson warned people that things would not continue to increase forever. Some of those people looked at Samuelson with pity, because he wasn’t taking part in the stock market increase.
Great gains inspire perverse behavior. There were people who owned 50 and 60 homes, who did not have a normal job, with a $30,000 negative cash flow per month. They would show you their list of properties with pride, because they were worth $4 million. They assumed they would be able to sell all their properties to people who were even dumber than they were. These kinds of people were sure that their investments couldn’t go wrong.
Before the bubble burst, people had high expectations for success, which allowed them to grumble about things not being good enough. The paradox at that time was that they could only have grumbled if they expected themselves to be heading towards paradise. The fact that things had been so good for them allowed them to criticize the actual conditions. When historians look back at this time, they will likely conclude that the times were not that good, even thought they really were; the times just weren’t as good as people thought they should be.
Roughly 2/3 of today’s population are too young in 1980. They were either not alive, or they were in their pre-adult years. They were not aware of the 70s and the high inflation, but even the people who lived during that time forgot about it.
Samuelson knows a columnist who wrote about Reagan’s leadership qualities. Samuelson does think that Reagan was a good leader, but the columnist did not address inflation at all. This history is the lost history. Professional historians and economists have engaged in an act of amnesia. This is scary because people will be more likely to make the same mistakes in the future. Samuelson thinks it is good to have the truth for the sake of truth, but also because if we don’t know the truth we will likely repeat our mistakes. There are prominent economists who are claiming that a little more inflation would be okay. Samuelson believes that if we encourage a little inflation, we will end up with a lot of it.
When society is used to good times, it can be difficult to ask for sacrifices, depending on what sacrifice you are asking for and why. Today, we have made more promises to people than we can afford to keep. Most of these promises are to retirees through social security, Medicare, and Medicaid. The cost of paying for those programs, when the baby boomers retire, will be staggering. Our children will be saddled with very high taxes, high budget deficits, or great cuts in other services. If we explain this to people, perhaps they would be willing to make some sacrifices. They may have to cut back on benefits for retirees, and raise the eligibility age for those programs. There may also be some sort of tax increase. None of our political leaders have made the case for sacrificing for our own interest. They seem to be waiting for a crisis to happen, which will force them to do things they should have done on their own.
There seems to be a popular conception that hyperinflation will likely occur in the next 20 years. However, based on our current scenario, Bruce does not see this occurring any time soon. Bruce and Samuelson are more considered with short term deflation. Samuelson doesn’t understand how you get higher inflation when you have empty shopping malls, 10 percent unemployment, and surplus factory capacity. As long as the people running economic policy in this country don’t come to the conclusion that higher inflation is better, we shouldn’t have it in the near future. When Samuelson says near future, he means 3 to 5 years.
In the long term, some people say that we will have to inflate because we have so much debt. The problem is that it is not easy to inflate your way out of debt. Forty percent of inflation turns over in a year or two. If you raise the inflation rate, you don’t really erode the debt, because you just have to refinance it at higher interest rates. In theory it seems like a practical choice, but in reality, it is not realistic.
Economists make the mistake of assuming that the economy responds in a mechanical way to credit, interest rates, government spending, and taxes. These things are significant, but Samuelson doesn’t think they are everything.
What happened in Japan was that they had an economic model, from the 50s to the middle 80s, which worked well for them. They had an export led economy, and they had an undervalued exchange rate. Their domestic economy was not very dynamic, but their exports kept growth and investment high. That model didn’t work in 80s because the exchange rate appreciated dramatically, and their exports became less competitive. This caused the Japanese to settle into a low growth mode, and they haven’t found a different economic model that works better. Contrary to what people learn in college economics, monetary and fiscal policy cannot change that kind of problem. The Japanese efforts to expand their economy through large budget deficits and loose monetary policy didn’t work. Their policy was dynamic internationally, but not domestically, and Samuelson thinks that is the problem in Japan.
If deflation became anticipated, it would be very destructive. Samuelson doesn’t think that modest price decreases would be that bad for a little while. However, if people think that prices will decrease forever, then they won’t borrow money, because their debt burdens will rise. They will postpone buying because the car they could buy today will be expected to fall even more in the future. This mentality will reduce demand, and then unemployment will increase.
Bruce asks Samuelson about what has changed in the baby boom generation’s expectation for retirement. Samuelson claims that this question is a little above his competence, because he is at the very edge of the baby boom generation. Samuelson feels that his retirement has become much less certain. He has saved a fair amount of money, but one thing he has learned is that markets don’t always increase. For example, if you have $100,000 on Thursday, six months from Thursday you may only have $100,000 minus 30 percent of its value. If you thought that money amount would be adequate to supply you through retirement, you may discover later on that it isn’t. That whole generation is probably feeling that same way about their retirement savings. Bruce thinks this mentality will cause a scenario that will not be inflationary. The economists that Samuelson talks to claim that people have short memories, so if we get into a fast growing economy for a few years, then their mentality of fear will disappear. However, Samuelson tends to agree with Bruce in his belief that these setbacks will leave people with a scarred mentality.
Samuelson wrote that the baby boom generation was the benefactor of large chunks of profit. They had the stock market increase, and then they had the real estate increase. This caused the baby boom generation to accumulate a lot of equity. Most of the GDP growth after 2002 came from equity growth and the extraction of it. Bruce wonders what is going to fuel the GDP growth going forward. This makes Bruce think, “How will we get inflation if we will have difficulty obtaining a moderate GDP growth?” Samuelson says that in an ideal world, the source of growth for the next 10 years would come from higher exports, fewer imports, and investment related to those thins. Also, more investment into our energy infrastructure might help as well. Specifically, natural gas could help us a lot now that we know we have more than we previously thought. Also, oil production can make a big difference for our potential economic growth.
After the Great Depression, a pact was made between the government and big business. Bruce asks if Samuelson sees another pact being made today. Samuelson does not see another pact being made today. The pact that occurred in the past was informal and unstable. After World War II, businesses did not want to be reviled in the same way they had been during the Great Depression. Because of this, businesses submitted to social and economic regulation in return for continued market freedom. What we should have today is a generational pact in which the baby boomers agree to reduce their benefits, so that we can take those burdens off of the young. This will allow them to start businesses, have children, and live in such a way so that a significant chunk of their income isn’t being drained to support their grandparents. Bruce completely agrees with this. There are plenty of people who can afford to pay for their own retirement, instead of having their grandchildren be taxed for it.
Robert Samuelson has created one heck of a book: The Great Inflation and Its Aftermath: The Past and Future of American Influence.
