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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 11/11/09

Wednesday, November 11th, 2009

Today’s News Synopsis:

The CBIA report shows that September sales for new-home communities have decreased by 11 percent from 2008. Foreclosure activity increased by 5 percent from August to September. According to Trulia, nearly 26 percent of homes were decreased in price from the previous month, and the total value of those price reductions is $28.1 billion.

In The News:

CBIA - “California New-Home Sales Down Again in September, CBIA Announces” (11-11-09)

“The monthly CBIA/Hanley Wood Market Intelligence (HWMI) New-Home Sales and Pricing Report showed that sales in new-home communities of 10 units or more were 11 percent below September 2008, an improvement from the 13 percent year-over-year decline last month and the much higher declines in previous months. During September, 2,310 new homes and condominiums were sold in the subdivisions tracked by Costa Mesa-based HWMI, compared to 2,580 in September 2008. Sales of single-family homes were down by 17 percent, while sales of townhomes and ‘plexes’ – duplexes, triplexes, etc. – were down 11 percent and sales of condominiums were 12 percent higher than a year ago.”

Orange County Register – “Foreclosure notices hit record 8,800″ (11-11-09)

“September’s total was up 5% from August and 90% from a year ago. The chart (click for larger image) shows outstanding auction notices going back to January 2007. Auction notices, also known as notices of trustee’s sale, are a warning that a property will be offered for sale, usually at a local courthouse.”

Los Angeles Times – “Existing-home prices slide in most metropolitan areas” (11-11-09)

“The U.S. median sale price for an existing single-family home was $177,900, an 11.2% drop from the same period a year earlier, according to the National Assn. of Realtors in Washington. Distressed sales continued to weigh on prices despite a popular tax credit fueling the volume of deals. Still, the median was higher than in the second quarter of this year, when it was $174,200.”

Housing Wire – “CMBS TALF May Bring New Issue in November: Sources” (11-11-09)

“Industry reports indicate a number of firms are gearing up to sell the first round of debt under the Fed’s CMBS TALF program for new issuance. The firms include Developers Diversified Realty Corp. (DDR: 9.02 +5.99%), which in October said it obtained new first mortgage financing of $400m from Goldman Sachs Commercial Mortgage Capital, an affiliate of Goldman Sachs & Co.”

Housing Wire – “Loss Severity May Reverse Recent Stability: Amherst” (11-11-09)

“the firm sees ‘temporary’ stabilization of house prices, as 7.5m units or 13.5% of US homeowners are in non-payment status. Amherst previously explained its reasoning for calculating 7m of those are ‘destined’ to liquidate, which hangs a shadow of distressed inventory over the positive signs seen in the US housing market.”

Housing Wire – “Refinancing Interest Boosts MBA’s Weekly Mortgage Apps” (11-11-09)

“MBA’s refinance index increased 14.5% from the previous week. The association’s purchase index decreased 1.8%. Refinance applications took a 66.1% share of all applications, up from 62.3% in the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of all applications decreased to 6.1% from 6.9%.”

Bloomberg - “U.S. Home Sellers Slash Prices by $28.1 Billion, Trulia Says” (11-11-09)

“The average discount was 10 percent, little changed from a month earlier, the San Francisco-based real estate data provider said today. Almost 26 percent of homes for sale were reduced at least once. Luxury properties — those costing $2 million or more — accounted for 25 percent of the dollar value of reductions and less than 2 percent of listings, Trulia said. ”

Inman - “Realogy in the black for Q3″ (11-11-09)

“Real estate franchisor and brokerage Realogy Corp. said it turned a $58 million profit in the third quarter, thanks in part to a debt restructuring that allowed the company to claim a $75 million gain and stay in compliance with agreements governing nearly $3 billion in loans.”

Inman - “GMAC Real Estate unites with Real Living” (11-11-09)

“A major real estate brokerage company merger gives GMAC Real Estate a new name while expanding the Real Living real estate brand and growing the U.S. operations of Canada-based Brookfield Residential Property Services. The merger of GMAC Real Estate and Real Living, which will operate under the Real Living name and under parent company Brookfield, represents the second sizable U.S. expansion of Brookfield operations in the past two years.”

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 11/3/09

Tuesday, November 3rd, 2009

Today’s News Synopsis:

According to Experian, approximately 588,000 borrowers walked away from their homes last year. In Q3 of 2009, California accounted for over 25 percent of the nation’s foreclosure activity. MIT reports that commercial real estate transaction prices rose by 4.4 percent in Q3 of 2009.

In The News:

USA Today – “More walk away from homes, mortgages”
(11-3-09)

“Walking away from a mortgage is serious business — it can knock 100 points off your credit score and make you ineligible for a new mortgage for seven years. Yet, about 588,000 borrowers walked away from homes last year, double the number in 2007, according to a recent study by credit-scoring firm Experian and management consultants Oliver Wyman.”

DSNews - “California AG Calls on Lenders to Outline Option ARM Modification Plans” (11-3-09)

“In the third quarter, California accounted for more than 25 percent of the nation’s foreclosure activity, with 250,000 homes receiving foreclosure filings statewide. California homeowners hold 58 percent of the country’s option ARMs originated between 2004 and 2008, Brown said. Approximately one million of these mortgages will reset nationwide in the next four years, resulting in higher payments and a dramatic increase in foreclosures, he said. ”

Wall Street Journal – “Five Reasons the U.S. Doesn’t Need More Home-Buyer Perks” (11-3-09)

“Subsidies raise prices, and house prices are already too high. The house subsidy has little value as economic stimulus. The benefits of stimulus spending are unproven.”

Housing Wire – “Commercial RE Prices Rise 4.4% in Q309: MIT” (11-3-09)

“Transaction prices rose 4.4% on commercial real estate properties sold in Q309 by major institutional investors, according to the MIT Center for Real Estate (MIT/CRE).”

Housing Wire – “Fannie Raises Lenders’ Net Worth Requirement Ten-Fold” (11-3-09)

“Fannie Mae (FNM: 1.15 +11.65%) updated its eligibility requirements for lenders wanting to sell and service residential first mortgages, according to the new selling guide released Friday. To do business with Fannie Mae, lenders must now have a net worth of at least $2.5m — 10 times the previous required net worth — plus a dollar amount equal to 0.25% of the outstanding principal balance of any Fannie Mae portfolio it services.”

Bloomberg - “Bernanke Housing Plan May Prompt Calls to Extend Aid” (11-3-09)

“Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is gambling that come March, he can stop the purchases of mortgage-backed securities that have propped up the U.S. housing market. Congress may have other ideas. The central bank says it must eventually withdraw its unprecedented economic stimulus to avoid a surge of inflation as a recovery takes hold. Plans to buy $1.25 trillion of housing debt are the centerpiece of its program to pull the nation out of the worst recession since the 1930s.”

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 10/30/09

Friday, October 30th, 2009

Today’s News Synopsis:

The Census Bureau reports that rental vacancy rates for Q3 of 2009 were at 11.1 percent. According to RealtyTrac, Chico, California had a 98 percent increase in foreclosures from Q3 of 2008. The Attorney General claims that 60 percent of the nation’s pay-option ARMs, originated between 2004 and 2008, are located in California. Wilber Ross Jr. believes that commercial real estate is headed for a major collapse.

In The News:

NAR - “NAR Commends Congressional Action to Extend Higher Mortgage Loan Limits” (10-30-09)

“NAR commends both houses of Congress for their quick action in continuing these higher limits during a time for recovery in the housing market and national economy. The higher limits, along with the home buyer tax credit extension, are necessary to keep the markets moving at this critical time”

Inman - “California official warns of loan resets” (10-30-09)

“Economists estimate that about 1 million pay-option ARMs will reset in the next four years, ‘dramatically worsening the foreclosure crisis,’ the attorney general’s office said in a letter to lenders. With 58 percent of all pay-option ARMs originated between 2004 and 2008, California will be the “epicenter of this crisis,” the letter said.”

Housing Wire – “Rental Vancancy Rate Up, Homeowner Rate Steady: Census” (10-30-09)

“The rental vacancy rate was 11.1% in Q309, an increase from 9.9% in Q309 and 10.6% in Q209, according to the latest data released by the Census Bureau. The homeowner vacancy rate held steady at 2.5% from Q209 to Q309, which is lower than Q308’s 2.8%. The homeownership rate was 67.6%, nearly even with the 67.9% in Q309 and 67.4% in Q209.”

Housing Wire - “Foreclosures Growing in Suburbs and Secondary, says RealtyTrac” (10-30-09)

“Foreclosures are beginning to flare up in suburban and secondary metro markets for Q309, according to a report from RealtyTrac. In several states, foreclosure activities drifted toward new focal points, such as smaller towns with previously self-sustaining industries. Chico, California in Sacramento Valley, and agricultural hub, had a 98% increase in foreclosures from Q308, according to the report.”

Housing Wire – “Genworth Earns $45m with Savings on Loan Modifications” (10-30-09)

“Mortgage insurer Genworth Financial (GNW: 10.62 +4.32%) reported a net income of $45m in Q309, compared to a net loss of $258m in Q308. Despite the overall earnings, Genworth registered $116m in net operating losses of its US Mortgage Insurance (US MI) segment, compared to $121m in losses in Q308.”

Housing Wire – “California AG Wants Pay Option ARM Answers” (10-30-09)

“California homeowners hold nearly 60% of the nation’s pay option ARMs originated between 2004 and 2008, the attorney general’s office said. Nationally, about 1m of these loans are schedule to reset in the next four years, creating higher payments for many loans on the brink of negative equity.”

Bloomberg - “Wilbur Ross Sees ‘Huge’ Commercial Real Estate Crash” (10-30-09)

“‘All of the components of real estate value are going in the wrong direction simultaneously,’ said Ross, one of nine money managers participating in a government program to remove toxic assets from bank balance sheets. ‘Occupancy rates are going down. Rent rates are going down and the capitalization rate — the return that investors are demanding to buy a property — are going up.’”

Bloomberg - “Simon Property Says FFO Increased in Third Quarter” (10-30-09)

“Simon Property Group Inc., the biggest U.S. shopping mall owner, said third-quarter earnings excluding items rose as the company cut expenses. Funds from operations climbed to $473.1 million, or $1.38 a share, from $463.9 million, or $1.61, a year earlier, the Indianapolis-based company said in a statement today. This year’s per share earnings were diluted by the sale of more than 40 million common shares. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg predicted FFO of $1.32, according to the average of 16 estimates.”

Orange County Register – “More than half H.B. escrows are repos, short sales” (10-30-09)

The article contains 3 charts which include numbers for active listings and escrows in Huntington, CA.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 10/29/09

Thursday, October 29th, 2009

Today’s News Synopsis:

Moody’s estimates that prices will continue to decline until Q3 of 2010. According to Freddie Mac, interest rates on 30-year fixed rate loans have increased to 5.03 percent. The U.S. Census Bureau reports that the number of vacant properties rose to 18.7 million, but the homeownership rate has maintained at 67.6 percent.

In The News:

San Francisco Chronicle – “Economy growing but recovery could be at risk” (10-29-09)

“Federal support for spending on cars and homes drove the economy up 3.5 percent from July through September. But the government aid — from tax credits for home buyers to rebates for auto purchases — is only temporary. Consumer spending, which normally drives recoveries, is likely to weaken without it.”

Housing Wire – “House Price Declines Weigh on Alt-A, Jumbo RMBS Ratings: Moody’s” (10-29-09)

“Moody’s Investors Service on Thursday said it will begin taking ratings actions in Q409 as needed to account for updated assumptions underlying US residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) loss projections. The loss projection revisions come as Moody’s expects house prices to continue to decline to a Q310 trough. Based on recent loan loss severities, the rating agency will increase its projected lifetime loan losses for pools backing US Jumbo, Alt-A, Option ARM and subprime RMBS issued from ‘05 to ‘08.”

Housing Wire – “Sallie Mae To Lose $95M on Mortgage, Real Estate Sale” (10-29-09)

“Student loan giant SLM Corp. (SLM: 10.20 +1.09%) will recognize a loss of as much as $95m on the sale of mortgages and real estate-related assets this quarter, according to a Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filing.”

Housing Wire – “CIT Gets Second Private Capital Bailout” (10-29-09)

“CIT Group Inc. (CIT: 0.9146 -13.72%), a commercial lender offering financing to small and medium businesses, this week expanded an existing $3bn senior secured credit facility to obtain $4.5bn in new credit.”

Housing Wire – “Freddie Sees Weekly 30-Year Fixed Rate Pass 5%” (10-29-09)

“Freddie Mac’s (FRE: 1.2901 +11.22%) weekly survey put the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) interest rate at 5.03% with an average 0.7 point for the week ending Oct. 29, up from 5% in the previous week. A year ago, the rate was 6.46%.”

Bloomberg - “U.S. Home Vacancies Rise to 18.8 Million on Defaults” (10-29-09)

“The number of vacant properties, including foreclosures, residences for sale and vacation homes, rose from 18.4 million a year earlier and 18.7 million in the second quarter, the U.S. Census Bureau said in a report today. The record high was in the first quarter, when 18.95 million homes were vacant. The homeownership rate, meaning households that own their own residence, stood at 67.6 percent.”

Bloomberg - “BlackRock, T. Rowe Price Seek Fed Loans to Buy Bonds” (10-29-09)

“Mutual funds run by companies including BlackRock Inc. and T. Rowe Price Group Inc. have begun buying bonds through a $1 trillion government lending program after a June regulatory ruling cleared the way.”

Bloomberg - “PHH Targets Realogy for Mortgages, Keeps Merrill, New CEO Says” (10-29-09)

“PHH, the fourth-largest U.S. originator of mortgages directly to consumers, can win a greater share of Realogy customers because more than 130 lenders have failed since 2007 and remaining rivals keep changing underwriting rules, Selitto said in an interview Oct. 27. Merrill Lynch contributed 21 percent of 2008 originations at PHH and was sold in January to Bank of America, which has its own mortgage unit.”

Orange County Register – “UCLA sees 16% home-price gain in 2010″ (10-29-09)

“Double-digit housing appreciation will return to Orange County next year, with the median home price rising somewhere from 15.9% to 16.6%, UCLA economists forecast in a report released today.”

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 10/9/09

Friday, October 9th, 2009

Today’s News Synopsis:

The House of Representatives unanimously passed a one-year extension of the first time homebuyer $8,000 tax credit.  A new Wells Fargo report projects big losses due to ALT-A and Option ARM recasts. Congress doubts that Treasury Department’s $50 billion loan-modification program will help 3-4 million foreclosures. The OC Register reports the smallest home-price loss in two years. Keep in mind a number of larger properties are now foreclosing which will make the median price number skewed. This week along we watched at trustee sale as a home worth $1.1 million got sold in the inalnd empire at $400,000.   

In The News:

Housing Wire – “House Extends Homebuyer Tax Credit for Service Members” (10-9-09)

“The House of Representatives unanimously passed a bill that calls for a one-year extension of the first time homebuyer tax credit for service members serving overseas. The bill passed 416-0, and is now in the Senate for consideration.”

Housing Wire – “Wells Sees 60-70% Loss Severity in Option-ARMs” (10-9-09)

“expect heavy losses among Option adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), a product that allowed negative amortization by letting borrowers choose to pay only the minimum monthly payment. Fitch Ratings expects significant payment shocks over the next several years as a wave of Option-ARMs recast from the minimum amount to a fully amortizing principle and interest payment. These recasts are expected to drive substantial losses among the Option-ARM sector.”

Housing Wire – “MBA, CMSA Urge Capital Relief under New Accountancy Rules” (10-9-09)

“The letter raises industry concerns over the Financial Accounting Standards (FAS) 166 and 167, which were drafted by the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) in June. The proposed changes take effect Jan. 1, 2010 and will require assets and liabilities of special purpose entities (SPEs) like mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to come onto the balance sheet of the issuer, servicer or special servicer. The standards will immediately apply to all existing MBS and commercial MBS, as well new MBS and CMBS issued after January 1.”

San Francisco Chronicle – “Banks help Habitat for Humanity buy empty homes” (10-9-09)

“Habitat for Humanity Greater San Francisco said Thursday that three banks had stepped up to help fund its plans to acquire and renovate foreclosed homes for use as low-income housing.”

CNN - “Predatory-lending lawsuits on the rise” (10-9-09)

“To be sure, banks have faced unfair lending lawsuits for years and have paid millions of dollars in settlements. But the recent housing boom was fueled by questionable and exotic loans that many borrowers had no hope of repaying. Some of the cases involve the classic predatory lending schemes, where certain borrowers were given mortgages with high interest rates, while other suits are combating loans that are ultimately unaffordable.”

Bloomberg - “TARP Oversight Group Says Treasury Mortgage Plan Not Effective” (10-9-09)

“The group Congress created to oversee the U.S.’s $700 billion financial bailout said the government needs to increase its efforts to help struggling homeowners modify their mortgages. A split Congressional Oversight Panel said in a report issued today that it has doubts that the Treasury Department’s $50 billion loan-modification program will help prevent an estimated 3 million to 4 million foreclosures. The group’s two Republican members dissented from the Democratic appointees’ findings.”

Bloomberg - “Goldman Sachs Seeks to Restart Commercial-Backed Debt” (10-9-09)

“Goldman Sachs Group Inc. may sell the first commercial-mortgage bond since June 2008, taking advantage of an untapped Federal Reserve program. The five-year, $400 million loan to Developers Diversified Realty Corp. made by a unit of the New York-based bank is secured by 28 shopping centers. Developers Diversified Realty Corp. It will be used to repay debt on those properties and others, and to reduce the outstanding amounts of credit facilities, Developers Diversified said yesterday in a statement.”

Orange County Register – “O.C. home-price loss smallest in 2 years” (10-9-09)

“Current median is -33% below June 2007’s peak of $645,000 but 17% above the cyclical low hit in January 2009. Single-family homes resell for 32% less than their peak pricing (June ‘07) while condos sell 37% below their peak in March 2006. Builder prices for new homes are 43% below their February ‘05 top.”

Inman - “Real estate Twitter tips” (10-9-09)

“DemandSpot is a Twitter real estate search tool designed to help folks find buyers (and sellers). Simply enter a geographic area, a search radius up to 200 miles, and select a real estate keyword from a list. DemandSpot will return tweets that contain those keywords, together with the link to the person who tweeted it.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 9/21/09

Monday, September 21st, 2009

Today’s News Synopsis:

The federal government plans to “tinker” with mortgage interest reporting. The $30 billion ticking time bomb of ARMs. First American estimates that California has approximately $30 billion dollars worth of bad home loans. A review of over 24 million credit files showed that people with good credit scores were more likely to ‘strategically default’. The building industry shows improvement, as Lennar Corp. expects a profitable year, despite a bad 3rd quarter.

In The News:

Los Angeles Times – “Feds plan to tinker with mortgage interest reporting” (9-20-09)

“The Government Accountability Office wants lenders to add more details about mortgages on Form 1098, which would make it easier for the IRS to determine whether taxpayers are complying with the rules.”

San Francisco Chronicle – “$30 billion home loan time bomb set for 2010″ (9-20-09)

“Next year, many option ARM payments will begin to readjust, slamming borrowers with dramatically higher monthly mortgage bills. Analysts say that could unleash the next big wave of foreclosures – and home-loan data show that the risky loans were heavily used in the Bay Area.”

Los Angeles Times – “Homeowners who ‘strategically default’ on loans a growing problem” (9-20-09)

“Research using a massive sample of 24 million individual credit files has found that homeowners with high scores when they apply for a loan are 50% more likely to ‘strategically default’ — abruptly and intentionally pull the plug and abandon the mortgage — compared with lower-scoring borrowers.”

Bearish News – “FHA: Bailout Waiting to Happen?” (9-19-09)

“The FHA has effectively replaced sub-prime lenders who went bust. They’re under pressure to prop-up housing prices, and are insuring heaps of risky loans in an effort to do so. Their guidelines are slipping and loan-volumes are skyrocketing. Delinquencies are skyrocketing too, reaching 14.4% in the 2nd quarter of 2009, according to the NYT (borrowers at least one payment late).”

Bloomberg - “Lennar Predicts Fiscal 2010 Profit, Purchases Land” (9-21-09)

“Lennar Corp., the third-largest U.S. homebuilder, expects to turn a profit in fiscal 2010 even after reporting a wider third-quarter loss, President and Chief Executive Officer Stuart Miller said today.”

Bloomberg - “Housing Risking Relapse Confronts Bernanke Conundrum” (9-21-09)

“The Obama administration is studying whether to let a first-time home buyers’ tax credit expire as scheduled at the end of November. Bernanke and his Fed colleagues may continue talking this week about how to wind down purchases of mortgage- backed securities, according to Peter Hooper, chief economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York. The two programs have helped stabilize real-estate demand, with new-house sales rising 9.6 percent in July from the prior month, the most since 2005.”

Bloomberg - “Moody’s Property Index Resumes ‘Steep’ Fall in July” (9-21-09)

“The Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Indices fell 5.1 percent in July from the month before, Moody’s said today in a statement. The index is down almost 39 percent from its October 2007 peak. The decline in June was 1 percent.”

Orange County Register – “Surf City’s high-end homes mirror trend: They sit” (9-21-09)

“Huntington Beach is somewhere in the middle ranges of Orange County cities in the ratio of distressed properties. Highest is Anaheim at 67.5%. Lowest is Seal Beach, at 1.5%. Other coastal neighbors: Newport Beach, 10.3%; Corona del Mar, 3.4%; Newport Coast, 9.7%.”

Orange County Register – “Buyers pay 3% premium for foreclosures” (9-21-09)

“Steve Thomas at Altera Real Estate in Aliso Viejo reports that the number of O.C. distressed properties (homes listed by agents as foreclosures or short sales) was 2,384 last week, -132 vs. two weeks earlier or a -5.2% change.”

Inman - “Facebook dos and don’ts for agents” (9-21-09)

“Regardless of which social media platform you use, your ultimate goal is to engage in conversations that lead to online friendships or that produce followers for your business. Some participants at a recent Real Estate BarCamp conference said that they don’t even mention their real estate business when they’re on Twitter and Facebook. Others mention their business only occasionally. Virtually everyone who is succeeding online agreed on this point; however, 90-95 percent of your posts should be contributing to the online conversation by helping others. Only 5-10 percent should be about what you are doing.”

Inman - “Rehabbing habitat” (9-21-09)

“While each of the 1,500 Habitat for Humanity affiliates in the United States sets its own strategies, purchasing foreclosures has been gaining traction this year. In a typical year, Habitat affiliates complete about 6,000 homes, and about 10 percent are foreclosures. This year, Seidel expects that figure to jump to as high as 25 percent.”

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111-TNG Radio – Ward Hanigan 2-28-09

Friday, February 27th, 2009

Ward_Hanigan

Ward Hanigan

Foreclosure Specialist

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Bruce Norris is joined once again by California trustee sale and foreclosure expert and educator, Ward Hanigan.

Bruce talks about Ward’s reputation that is so important in this business. Ward talks about why it’s so important to stay on top of current trends and how his students help him do that.

Bruce talks about the foreclosure problem and all the new “solutions” the government is throwing at the issue. Bruce brings up SB1137. Ward says this bill just delayed the inevitable and now they are coming back on the market. Bruce talks about fines being given out by the cities and how lenders are taking additional huge hits by way of code fines. Bruce met with a Southern California city that says they hired four employees that get paid only when they write code violations. He talks about a recent boot camp and a fine that was levied on the house for something silly. He sees fines upwards of $20,000 on some of these lender-owned California properties.

The quantity of foreclosures is making it difficult for lenders to handle it all. Bruce talks about the cities and counties that are now getting money. Ward likes the programs because a fair amount of the money is going towards the first time buyer assistance programs which help us. There’s also an $8,000 tax credit for certain buyers.

Ward’s view on the new Foreclosure Prevention Act won’t do much as there are plenty of investments that it won’t help. Ward talks about a large number of non-owner occupied homes that will be let go from speculators. Bruce asks where those stats come from because when he looks at County Records Research, Bruce finds that around 70% are owner occupied and 100% financed. Ward says some people coming to him say they were able to finance investments 100%.

Bruce talks about how quickly people went from a positive equity position to negative. Bruce asks Ward how he prepared for the downturn. Ward said he lined up lines of credit in 2006 but did not borrow on them. He owned several homes free and clear. He did a little spec building that worked out well at the peak. Now he’s in a great position.

Bruce asks Ward what he tells people who are having start over. Ward tells them to be a survivor and not a victim. They got caught up in the euphoria, don’t blame yourself, pick yourself up and start over. You have to get over it and get started on something new.

Bruce hears every quarter that now is the best time to buy real estate. Ward says as Option ARMs adjust it will only get better. Ward likes to eat every day and he feels the same way about investing. He makes money in all times of markets. It’s about the deal considering the market you in. Trying to time bottom is not important.

Bruce asks Ward how important it is to him to have his basic needs being taken care of automatic pilot. Ward’s “Dingbat Retirement” program has made him very happy. It’s important for him to have his keepers paying him every month. He has retirement section 8 that’s done quite well. Putting himself in this position allows him to make much more calm and wise decisions.

Ward rents to a very unique group of people. Ward rents to retired individuals. Ward learned early on he wanted to rent to those in their last 20 years of life. He wants people with no job and people who were settled. Retirees want peace and quite, individual units away from other people, don’t have to have a garage, no need for a yard, and overall just want something that’s simple to maintain and is cheap. Bruce asks what the age of these homes are and he says they are typically from the 20s.

Bruce asks about neighborhood safety. Ward says that it’s not too important. They want level ground for safety reasons and they, of course, don’t want heavy crime areas.

Bruce asks how Ward advertises his homes and gets the right people there. The inventory he has helps with that. Ward’s average turnover is 17 years. Ward is looking forward to picking up more.

Bruce and Ward talk about Fannie Mae raising their loans to investor back to 10. Bruce talks about the confusion between speculator and true investors. Investors need to be part of the market. We will need more than 10. foreclosureforum.com

Ward Hanigan is a full-time foreclosure specialist and trainer in San Diego County. He brings you over 37 years of real estate experience, with a degree in Economics and a Doctorate in Law. He has worked in California’s foreclosure market exclusively since 1982, and as a consequence he has extensive experience finding cash, researching title, handling evictions, rehabbing, reselling, consulting, and is a “one-on-one” trainer and mentor to some of the most successful foreclosure practitioners in the Western United States.

Next week is Tony Alvarez.

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88-TNG Radio – I Survived Real Estate 10-4-08

Friday, October 3rd, 2008

isurvived2008

I Survived Real Estate 2008

Part Six

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Part six of “I Survived Real Estate 2008” picks up with review from last week. Since this is the solution portion it’s very important. Later in the interview the Q&A with all panelists begins.

Bruce shows the audience a list of 20 homes The Norris Group purchased in the past 45 days through auction or out of the MLS and the huge price hits lenders are taking. On 20 transactions, the banks took a $4.6 million dollar loss. Bruce says he’s worried about the domino effect. Too many people owe more than their property is worth.

Bruce says there are three ways to solve a vacancy. We can tear down houses and create an artificial housing shortage. We can leave it vacant and wait for till household formation catches up with supply. Or, we could make it possible for investors to have financing to hold them.

Four solutions that are needed to get us back on track. The 203k loan program from FHA should be made available to investors. It was available to investors until 1996 and then FHA discontinued because it had done its job of getting rid of foreclosures. FHA doesn’t have a ton of foreclosures because they didn’t make a ton of loans. However, the loan program needs to be made available for investors to expedite the foreclosure problem.

Fannie and Freddie need to increase the number of loans they will give to investors. Both want to open offices in California to help unload inventory more quickly and investors are likely candidates. At the same time, they are cutting back on financing available. Both are in a dire situation. Fannie and Freddie hold a huge amount of the foreclosures.

Option Arms are the next wave and these loans represent 50% of Fannie and Freddie losses. Bruce shows the Option Arm reset chart. The chart shows the expected resets and what’s currently happening now. A huge number of these Option Arm loan holders are making teaser payments. Once the loan balance hits a certain percentage, the loan resets. 90% of the borrowers of these loans made the minimum payment. Many won’t walk until the reset because the payment is cheaper than rent.

The foreclosure process is now taking longer because the banks are so slammed but because of the new regulations as well. The bulk of these are set to land in 2009. The loan amounts were typically more than subprime and the lenders will have to recalculate what they made because of how they were writing things off.

Bruce says a due on sale moratorium would make it possible for investors to buy properties that would undoubtedly become foreclosures, it would allow Realtors and auctioneers to make commission on properties with no equity but favorable financing, allow a consumer to move on with credit intact, and improve liquidity in the system.

In the 1980s, foreclosures exploded but price deterioration wasn’t bad. Assumptions of loans saved the market. When interest rates were 17%, people were able to assume better financing. Bringing back the simple assumption could really help.

Bruce also suggests the 90 day seasoning period on properties to be removed so investors can fix houses and sell them more quickly. Bruce shows the audience the picture of one of The Norris Group’s fixed up properties. Bruce describes why our fixed up inventory is so important for the market. The assumption that investors are committing fraud is completely wrong and is actually causing more problems. The creation of the two levels of comps is necessary to keep prices stable.

Bruce also wants to see long-term financing for investors so we can get the market cranking again.

Bruce then starts the second part of event. All eight guests appear on the stage to discuss the solutions brought forward.

Tommy Williams starts off by speaking on the point that there are some properties that should be bulldozed as some neighborhoods would actually be better off.

Christopher Thornberg brings up the political ramifications and complications of solutions and the difficulty of getting people to listen. Christopher also brings up the myth where some people renting must mean that person’s life is a complete wash. Christopher also brings up how investors were blamed for the current market.

Bruce brings up the fact that all the solutions he proposed are not new and that they had existed at one time in the past. It’s nothing new and they worked before.

Rick Sharga says the number of properties in foreclosure that are not owner occupied have not gone up that much. The myth that the investor caused it is not correct. Rick points out that many of the solutions would have to be implemented one piece at a time and it would take time. Rick also talks about non profits getting involved. Habitat for Humanity is taking REOs and rehabbing them instead of starting from scratch. Rick also talks about how numerous investors are coming in with large pools of money ready to take down portfolios of notes.

Bruce talks about how he gets called by Wall Street often and how they are putting together multi-million dollar pools to do that and they want to know when bottom is. Bruce is not excited about the thought that the very companies that helped get us into this mess will be the ones who also take advantage of the current situation. More to come.

The following partners and sponsors without whom the event would not have been possible:

Platinum Sponsors:

The San Diego Creative Investors Association (SDCIA): sdcia.com

Investors Workshops: investorsworkshops.com

Frye Wiles: fryewiles.com

Proxibid: proxibid.com

White House Catering: whcatering.com

MVT Productions: mvtproductions.tv

Pechanga Resort and Casino: pechanga.com

The Denver Nuggets: nba.com nuggets

The Chicago Bulls: nba.com bulls

The Cleveland Cavaliers: nba.com cavaliers

Gold Sponsors:

7 Steps to a 720 Credit Score and Philip X. Tirone – 7stepsto720.com

Chicago Title – ctic.com

Elite Auctions – sellwithauction.com

Foreclosure Trackers – foreclosuretrackers.com

Investors Resource Center of America LA and Steve and Robyn Love – irca-losangeles.com

Las Brisas Escrow – lasbrisasescrow.com

National Club of Real Estate Investors and Sam Saddat – ncrei.com

Northern California Real Estate Investors Association (Norcalreia) and David Granzella – norcalreia.com

North San Diego Real Estate Investors and Linda Wessels – nsdrei.org

RealtyTrac – realtytrac.com

RE Ventures and Michael Pines – reventuresrealty.com

Real Estate Investors Club of Los Angeles and Phyllis Rockower – realestateclubla.com

Real Wealth Investor and Scott Whaley – realwealthinvestor.com

Saddleback Valley Communities – svc4.com

Silverstar Finance and Janet French – silverstarfinance.com

Sunset Hills Memorial Park and Mortuary – sunsethills.cc

The Mission Inn – missioninn.com

The Mortgage Equity Group – http: themeg.net

The Naked Real Estate Investor Club – Rosie Nieto – nakedrealestateinvestorsclub.com

The Short Sale Processor and Nick Manfredi – theshortsaleprocessor.com

Virtual Real Estate Tour and Layla Tusko – 1wealthcreation.com

Wholesale Capital Corporation – wccmtg.com

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87-TNG Radio – I Survived Real Estate 9-27-08

Friday, September 26th, 2008

isurvived2008

I Survived Real Estate 2008

Part Five

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Part five of “I Survived Real Estate 2008” picks up with Bruce Norris introducing Tommy Williams, president of the National Auctioneers Association and co-founder of Williams and Williams Auction Company. Tommy has been involved in over 10,000 real estate transactions in his very lengthy career.

Tommy starts right away with his solution. Tommy brings to the table an idea he’s been passionate about for many years. Reality in the market place is what it is and there’s no way around it. The entire world sets prices by the auction process and not just real estate.

Instead of having a foreclosure process, Tommy suggests we skip foreclosures all together. The foreclosure process leaves an empty house and starts a very expensive process for the bank. The neighboring homes next door to the foreclosure see house values go down because of blight, the bank goes the a long and expensive process, and the foreclosed consumer leaves with damaged credit.

Tommy suggests a short sale auction hybrid. The consumer about to foreclosure would still be in the home when the auction took place and the home would be handed to someone ready to fill the home and at true market price. After the auction, the foreclosed consumer and the bank would need to deal with the deficiency but at the least the property would never be vacant.

The free market needs to work and the auction process needs to be involved. It would help us get back on track more quickly.

Bruce is the last speaker of the evening and starts talking about the cycles we go through and how we as humans often repeat the same mistakes. Solutions can also be from the past.

Bruce says that when we have a euphoric period there’s an exuberance that gets people in the market that should not be. The last to get in are usually the ones that are least capable. Emotions come into play and typically they cannot afford the home they purchased. This cycle we saw a record number of home owners but maybe we should never have got to such a high number.

Bruce shows a vacancy chart and how it climbed since 1985. Now it’s declining and rightfully so. Bruce thinks about 6% of homes will end up being vacant.

Tightening loan standards are creating issues. Bruce reads an article about lenders tightening programs. It makes it harder for people hard to qualify and refi what the already have which will make it worse.

We now have to deal with the largest foreclosure issue in history. Foreclosures are already at an all time high and will continue. These foreclosures have caused huge price erosions.

Bruce shows the audience a list of 20 homes The Norris Group purchased in the past 45 days through auction or out of the MLS and the huge price hits lenders are taking. On 20 transactions, the banks took a $4.6 million dollar loss. Bruce says he’s worried about the domino effect. Too many people owe more than their property is worth.

Bruce says there are three ways to solve a vacancy. We can tear down houses and create an artificial housing shortage. We can leave it vacant and wait for till household formation catches up with supply. Or, we could make it possible for investors to have financing to hold them.

Four solutions that are needed to get us back on track. The 203k loan program from FHA should be made available to investors. It was available to investors until 1996 and then FHA discontinued because it had done its job of getting rid of foreclosures. FHA doesn’t have a ton of foreclosures because they didn’t make a ton of loans. However, the loan program needs to be made available for investors to expedite the foreclosure problem.

Fannie and Freddie need to increase the number of loans they will give to investors. Both want to open offices in California to help unload inventory more quickly and investors are likely candidates. At the same time, they are cutting back on financing available. Both are in a dire situation. Fannie and Freddie hold a huge amount of the foreclosures.

Option Arms are the next wave and these loans represent 50% of Fannie and Freddie losses. Bruce shows the Option Arm reset chart. The chart shows the expected resets and what’s currently happening now. A huge number of these Option Arm loan holders are making teaser payments. Once the loan balance hits a certain percentage, the loan resets. 90% of the borrowers of these loans made the minimum payment. Many won’t walk until the reset because the payment is cheaper than rent.

The foreclosure process is now taking longer because the banks are so slammed but because of the new regulations as well. The bulk of these are set to land in 2009. The loan amounts were typically more than subprime and the lenders will have to recalculate what they made because of how they were writing things off.

Bruce says a due on sale moratorium would make it possible for investors to buy properties that would undoubtedly become foreclosures, it would allow Realtors and auctioneers to make commission on properties with no equity but favorable financing, allow a consumer to move on with credit intact, and improve liquidity in the system.

In the 1980s, foreclosures exploded but price deterioration wasn’t bad. Assumptions of loans saved the market. When interest rates were 17%, people were able to assume better financing. It saved the system.

Bruce also suggests the 90 day seasoning period on properties to be removed so investors can fix houses and sell them more quickly. More to come next week. Thenorrisgroup.com

Special thanks to the following partners and sponsors without whom the event would not have been possible:

Platinum Sponsors:

The San Diego Creative Investors Association (SDCIA): sdcia.com

Investors Workshops: investorsworkshops.com

Frye Wiles: fryewiles.com

Proxibid: proxibid.com

White House Catering: whcatering.com

MVT Productions: mvtproductions.tv

Pechanga Resort and Casino: pechanga.com

The Denver Nuggets: nba.com nuggets

The Chicago Bulls: nba.com bulls

The Cleveland Cavaliers: nba.com cavaliers

Gold Sponsors:

7 Steps to a 720 Credit Score and Philip X. Tirone – 7stepsto720.com

Chicago Title – ctic.com

Elite Auctions – sellwithauction.com

Foreclosure Trackers – foreclosuretrackers.com

Investors Resource Center of America LA and Steve and Robyn Love – irca-losangeles.com

Las Brisas Escrow – lasbrisasescrow.com

National Club of Real Estate Investors and Sam Saddat – ncrei.com

Northern California Real Estate Investors Association (Norcalreia) and David Granzella – norcalreia.com

North San Diego Real Estate Investors and Linda Wessels – nsdrei.org

RealtyTrac – realtytrac.com

RE Ventures and Michael Pines – reventuresrealty.com

Real Estate Investors Club of Los Angeles and Phyllis Rockower – realestateclubla.com

Real Wealth Investor and Scott Whaley – realwealthinvestor.com

Saddleback Valley Communities – svc4.com

Silverstar Finance and Janet French – silverstarfinance.com

Sunset Hills Memorial Park and Mortuary – sunsethills.cc

The Mission Inn – missioninn.com

The Mortgage Equity Group – http: themeg.net

The Naked Real Estate Investor Club – Rosie Nieto – nakedrealestateinvestorsclub.com

The Short Sale Processor and Nick Manfredi – theshortsaleprocessor.com

Virtual Real Estate Tour and Layla Tusko – 1wealthcreation.com

Wholesale Capital Corporation – wccmtg.com

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84-TNG Radio – I Survived Real Estate 9-6-08

Saturday, August 30th, 2008

isurvived2008

I Survived Real Estate 2008

Part Two

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The airing of I Survived Real Estate 2008 continues to air. Video is also available on thenorrisgroup.com.

Part two picks up with Bruce Norris introducing Christopher Thornberg who represents the economics part of the equation. Christopher is a self proclaimed bear and was one of the few that predicted the downturn was coming. Christopher discusses employment, housing starts and how they can only go to zero, consumer sales, exports, his thought on recession and the varying views that exist, if the worst is yet to come, and where he stands.

Christopher talks about the housing market and the false indicator of increases in home sales. Christopher says homes prices got too ridiculous and that prices did not match what people were making. Increases in incomes did not keep up with home price appreciation. The only reason prices got that high was of the crazy financing that took place.

Christopher says the pace of home price declines look to be around 30% per year and the mix of foreclosures to home sales is not looking good. Christopher addresses how far prices will fall.

Christopher believes financial losses will total over $1 trillion and that several institutions will fail because of overexposure. The leverage of some institutions is 100 to 1 such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Christopher reviews some of the new features of the newly passed housing bill and how little it will actually accomplish. With the money that the government will release to California alone, doing the math it means California will only be able to purchase around 4,000 homes which is a very small piece of the large REO pie. Allowing banks to revise certain consumers loans. The government actually foots the bill. $140 billion lent to banks but they are still a big mess.

Christopher talks about the tax rebate and how it didn’t increase spending enough. He says the consumers are dealing with two bubbles. Savings rates have gone from 8% to 0% and that a great amount of net wealth disappear. Consumers will be forced to save for the first time and will also be bad for the short run. With contraction in spending, it means a slow down in retail and other consumer-driven sectors. Cocktail statement: Keep you’re eye on 2010.

Bruce introduces Rick Sharga who is the VP of marketing for RealtyTrac. Rick talks about foreclosures and the implication of the current glut on the market. Rick talks about the media obsession with foreclosures and the huge interest in foreclosure data.

Rick talks about how we got into the position we’re in; lending. What drove some of the behavior was Fed policy and that money became practically free. People who should never have been able to get a loan got one in the boom. Wall Street securitized these loans and had a voracious appetite to do so. Due diligence was practically thrown out the window. Bankers went from buy and hold strategy to buy, package and sell and do it again.

RealtyTrac captures foreclosure data from 2,200 counties nationwide. 1.2 million foreclosure filings occurred in 2006 and over 2.3 million in 2007. In California the numbers were much worse as a percentage compared to other states. 2008 will be far worse. Rick discusses the areas hit the hardest. He mentions 7 of the top 12 markets hit hardest are in California. In Stockton, 1 in 25 receives a foreclosure notice. Foreclosure homes are outselling the resale of homes at this point. Existing homes sales aren’t increasing like most would think. The resets for subprime will continue. 32 months of foreclosure data increases thus far with no end in sight. Alt A and Option Arms will cause more problems in 2009.

While the market is sure to continue its decline, Rick points out there will be plenty of opportunities for investors in the coming years.

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