RealtyTrac reports foreclosure filings incrased in 75% of the nation’s metro areas during the first 2 quarters. Statistics from the Department of Labor show unemployment insurance claims fell by 11,000 last week. According to Freddie Mac’s weekly survey, the average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage decreased to 4.54%. Fiserv predicts that single-family home prices will fall 4.9 percent during the next 12 months.

In The News:

NAHB - “Remodeling Dips but Shows Signs of Stabilization” (7-29-10)

“The remodeling market slid backward during the second quarter, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB) Remodeling Market Index (RMI). The RMI (combining current and future market indicators) sunk to 40.7 from 43.8 in the first quarter. Current market conditions slid back to 42.6 from 44.5 in the previous quarter. Future indicators of remodeling business declined to 38.9 from 43.1 in the last quarter.”

CNN - “Foreclosures climb in 75% of metro areas” (7-29-10)

“Foreclosure filings climbed in 75% of the nation’s metro areas during the first half of 2010, according to a report issued Thursday. RealtyTrac, an online marketer of foreclosed homes, said that California, Florida, Arizona and Nevada continue to lead the nation in the rate of foreclosures. Las Vegas was the worst-hit city.”

San Francisco Chronicle – “Feds put up $1 billion more for mortgage relief” (7-29-10)

“Congress has just come up with an extra $1 billion to help people who can’t pay their mortgage because of unemployment or a medical problem. Under this new Emergency Mortgage Relief program, eligible homeowners who are at least three months delinquent can get up to $50,000 apiece in federal loans to pay their mortgages.”

Housing Wire – “Weekly Jobless Claims Beat Consensus, Slip to 457,000″ (7-29-10)

“Initial unemployment insurance claims fell 11,000 in the week ending July 24, beating the market consensus of a 4,000-claim drop. Jobless claims slipped to a seasonally adjusted 457,000 from the previous week’s upwardly revised figure of 468,000, according to new data today from the US Department of Labor. The four-week moving average slipped 4,500 to 452,500 this week.”

Housing Wire – “Weekly Mortgage Rates Hit New Lows” (7-29-10)

“The Freddie Mac survey put the average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) at 4.54% with an average 0.7 origination point for the week ending July 29, down from last week’s average of 4.56% and a year ago, when the average was 5.25%. It’s a new record low for the survey, which began in 1971.”

Housing Wire – “Fiserv Sees More Pain Ahead in House Prices, Projects 4.9% Decline” (7-29-10)

“Fiserv (FISV: 49.22 +0.70%), financial services technology provider, found that national average house prices rose 2% in Q110 from a year before — the first yearly gain since 2006. Fiserv projects that single-family house prices are likely to fall another 4.9% over the next 12 months as tight economic circumstances continue. Continued high unemployment and a large number of distressed properties remaining in markets like Florida, Arizona and Nevada are weighing on the housing market.”

Housing Wire – “SEC Charges Citigroup $75m for Misrepresentation of Subprime Assets” (7-29-10)

“The Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) today charged Citigroup Inc. with misleading investors about the company’s exposure to subprime mortgage assets targeting two Citi executives for their roles in the incident that will cost the company $75m. Citigroup will not dispute the fine, the SEC said, and will pay the full amount.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, the MBA reported that mortgage application volume decreased by 6.3 percent within a week. A bill was being supported by 276 members of the House, which would have audited central banks. About $2.2 trillion of U.S. commercial properties bought or refinanced since 2004 became less valuable than their original price, said Real Capital Analytics in 2009.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

MDA DataQuick reports A total of 22,270 new and resale houses and condos closed escrow in Southern California last month. According to the NAHB, builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family decreased this month. Having a home with a view is on the top 10 list of preferences for 44.5 percent of men. Morgan Stanley’s research has lead the company to conclude that low mortgage rates will prevent a double dip in prices.

In The News:

DQNews - “Southland median sale price back over $300K; sales at 4-year high” (6-15-10)

“A total of 22,270 new and resale houses and condos closed escrow in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties last month. That was up 9.7 percent from 20,299 in April, and up 7.2 percent from 20,775 in May 2009, according to MDA DataQuick of San Diego.”

NAHB - “Builder Confidence Declines in June” (6-15-10)

“Snapping a string of two consecutive monthly gains, builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes fell back to February levels, before the beginning of the home buyer tax credit-related surge, according to results of the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today. The HMI dropped five points to 17 in June.”

Los Angeles Times – “California’s economy to see sluggish recovery this year, UCLA economists say” (6-15-10)

“California stands to gain some jobs this year but recovery will be sluggish, and the state’s inland areas will bear the brunt of the continuing economic pain, according to a forecast scheduled to be released Tuesday by UCLA’s Anderson School of Business.”

Inman - “Top 10 sought-after home features” (6-15-10)

“Men and women’s top 10 preferences were largely the same with two exceptions: having a view made it onto the men’s list (and not the women’s list), with 44.5 percent of men saying it was a high priority; and wood floors made it onto the women’s list (and not the men’s), with 40.9 percent of women ranking them highly.”

Housing Wire – “Low Mortgage Rates Help Block Double-Dip Threat: Morgan Stanley” (6-15-10)

“The US economics team at financial firm Morgan Stanley (MS: 25.96 +2.49%) says in their latest research report that recent gains in the nation’s economy point to a remote chance of a so-called double dip — where recent upticks in economic activity are only temporary — citing low mortgage rates as a key driver in drawing this conclusion.”

Housing Wire – “Shadow Inventory to Take 3 Years to Clear: Standard & Poor’s” (6-15-10)

“The shadow inventory of distressed properties that back residential mortgage-backed securities will take nearly three years to clear at the current sales rate, according to the credit rating agency, Standard & Poor’s (S&P). S&P puts the total principal balance of the shadow inventory at $480bn or 30% of the entire non-agency market.”

Housing Wire – “BofA Permanent HAMP Modifications Passes 70,000 in May” (6-15-10)

“Bank of America (BAC: 15.76 +2.27%) pushed its total number of permanent modifications under the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) to roughly 70,000 in May, up from 56,400 in April.”

Housing Wire – “MGIC Writes $800m in Monthly Mortgage Insurance, Denies Hundreds of Claims” (6-15-10)

“Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Corp. (MGIC), the principal subsidiary of MGIC Investment Corp. (MTG: 9.12 +8.19%), wrote $800m of primary new mortgage insurance in May, according to monthly operations data. The company denied or rescinded — or canceled the policy relating to — almost 1,000 mortgage insurance claims in the month, helping to further reduce the number of delinquencies on its books, according to a press release.”

Housing Wire – “More Funds Repaid to TARP than Outstanding in May: Treasury” (6-15-10)

“Treasury noted in the April update on TARP that it expects to spend less than $550bn of the $700bn authorized for the program, and expects to recover all but $117bn — an estimate that was subsequently revised to $105.4bn. Of $384bn in total TARP disbursements, more than half — or $194bn — was repaid through May, leaving only $190bn outstanding. The sale of 1.5bn shares of Citigroup (C: 3.975 +2.45%) pushed the repayments past outstandings for the first time in TARP’s history.”

Housing Wire – “In These Thin Times, House Sizes Also Begin to Shrink” (6-15-10)

“In 2007, the average single-family home in the United States peaked at 2,521 square feet. That number did not vary greatly into 2008. However, according to a 2009 report from the Census Bureau, it’s now at an average of 2,438 square feet.”

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

According to the NAHB, both demand and production of apartments increased from Q1 2009. Freddie Mac reports rates on 30-year fixed mortgages fell to 4.72 percent this week. RealtyTrac claims U.S. foreclosure activity decreased by 3 percent in May. Household net worth rose by 2.1 percent in the first quarter.

In The News:

NAHB - “Multifamily Builders Less Pessimistic” (6-10-10)

“The multifamily market showed signs of moving back toward stability in the first quarter of 2010, according to the latest NAHB’s Multifamily Market Index (MMI).  The current production index for market-rent apartments jumped to 30.6, 14 points higher than a year earlier, while future demand expectations for Class A apartments rose to 49.6 from 34 and for Class B to 53.1 from 43.9.  For lower-rent units and for-sale condominiums, the current production indexes rose to 38.2 and 25.0, respectively, more than 10 points higher than in the first quarter of 2009.”

Freddie Mac – “Freddie Mac: Mortgage rates hit low for year” (6-10-10)

“Rates on 30-year fixed mortgages fell this week to the lowest level of the year and were barely shy of the all-time low. Mortgage finance company Freddie Mac says the average rate sank to 4.72 percent, down from 4.79 percent last week. It was just above the record of 4.71 set last December.”

Wall Street Journal – “KB Home Buys in Inland Empire” (6-10-10)

“Builder KB Home snapped up 664 partially finished lots in California’s Inland Empire, a sign that one of the nation’s biggest boom-to-bust markets is coming back to life.”

Los Angeles Times – “Foreclosure filings decline 3% in May” (6-10-10)

“Foreclosure activity in the U.S. continued to level off in May with the number of homes caught up in some stage of the process falling 3% from April, a real estate firm said. A total of 322,920 properties received some kind of foreclosure filing last month — either default notices, scheduled auctions or bank repossessions — a 3% drop from April and an increase of less than 1% from May 2009, according to RealtyTrac in Irvine.”

San Francisco Chronicle – “Americans’ wealth rises for 4th straight quarter” (6-10-10)

“The Federal Reserve reported Thursday that household net worth rose by 2.1 percent in the first three months of this year to $54.6 trillion. It marked the fourth consecutive quarter that Americans’ wealth grew.”

Housing Wire – “RealtyTrac: Most Foreclosure Properties Not Underwater” (6-10-10)

“Of all of the foreclosures in the RealtyTrac online database, less than 50% have mortgages worth less than what is owed, said Rick Sharga, senior vice president at RealtyTrac, during a session at REO Expo, which concludes in Dallas Wednesday.”

Housing Wire – “Congress to Consider FHA Reform, Mortgage Insurance Hike” (6-10-10)

“House Resolution (HR) 5072, the FHA Reform Act of 2010, was reported to the House of Representatives Tuesday and could begin facing votes as early as this week. The FHA reform bill would raise the annual mortgage insurance premium to 1.55% from 0.55%.”

Bloomberg - “Subprime Delinquencies Show Clear ‘Positive Shift,’ RBS Says” (6-10-10)

“The proportion of U.S. homeowners turning delinquent on mortgages backing the securities that roiled the global financial system has tumbled in the past three months, even after accounting for a typical seasonal improvement, according to RBS Securities Inc. Of borrowers with subprime loans in 2007-issued bonds who had never missed payments, an average of 2.6 percent fell behind each month, a drop from 3.7 percent in February, representing a 15 percent decline after seasonal adjustments, according to RBS analysts.”

Bloomberg - “Banks Face Short-Sale Fraud as Home ‘Flopping’ Rises” (6-10-10)

“Sergio Natera and Anna McElaney are scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford’s federal court in August after pleading guilty to fraud. Their crime involved persuading lenders to approve the sale of homes for less than the balance owed –known as a short sale — without disclosing that there were better offers. They then flipped the houses for a profit. The Federal Bureau of Investigation, the California Department of Real Estate and mortgage finance company Freddie Mac have warned that such schemes may be spreading after a plunge in values left homeowners owing more than their properties are worth. The scams threaten to deepen losses for lenders that are increasingly agreeing to short sales as an alternative to more costly foreclosures.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, 2,771 new homes and condominiums were sold within one month in the subdivisions tracked by Costa Mesa-based HWMI. The MBA reported that mortgage application volume decreased by 7.2 percent in one week. Steven Kandarian said commercial mortgage defaults will rise in 2011 to 2012.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

NAHB is forecasting 552,000 single-family starts in 2010. The MBA reports mortgage loan application volume decreased by 1.5 percent from last week. The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties increased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 10.06 percent in Q1 2010. U.S. commercial real estate values fell in March by 0.5 percent.

In The News:

NAHB - “Optimistic Outlook for Housing, But Challenges Remain” (5-19-10)

“NAHB is forecasting 552,000 single-family starts in 2010, up 25 percent from last year’s 445,000 level, which was the lowest annual output since 1959 when the government began collecting this data. Suffering from an acute shortage of available financing and a significant shadow inventory of homes lost to foreclosure that are competing against normal inventory, Crowe said that multifamily housing starts are expected to lose further ground this year, falling 18 percent to 93,000 units, before rebounding to 150,000 units in 2011.”

Bloomberg - “Mortgage Purchase Applications Plummet While Refinance Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey” (5-19-10)

“The Refinance Index increased 14.5 percent from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 27.1 percent from one week earlier.  This is the lowest Purchase Index observed in the survey since May of 1997.  The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 27.0 percent compared with the previous week and was 24.1 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 14, 2010.  The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.  On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 3.1 percent compared with the previous week.”

Mortgage Bankers Association – “Delinquencies, Foreclosure Starts Increase in Latest” (5-19-10)

“The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties increased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 10.06 percent of all loans outstanding as of the end of the first quarter of 2010, an increase of 59 basis points from the fourth quarter of 2009, and up 94 basis points from one year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey. The non-seasonally adjusted delinquency rate decreased 106 basis points from 10.44 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009 to 9.38 percent this quarter.”

Bloomberg - “Fed in No Rush to Sell Mortgage Assets, Minutes Show” (5-19-10)

“Federal Reserve policy makers last month said they were in no rush to sell $1.1 trillion of mortgage-backed securities, with a majority preferring to wait until after the central bank starts raising interest rates.”

Bloomberg - “Commercial Property Values Drop as Rebound Stalls” (5-19-10)

“U.S. commercial real estate values fell in March, pushed lower by a quarterly drop in retail and office properties in the biggest metropolitan areas, Moody’s Investors Service said. The Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Index fell 0.5 percent from February, the second straight monthly decline, Moody’s Investors Service Inc. said today in a report. Prices slid 25 percent from a year earlier and are down 42 percent from the October 2007 peak.”

Housing Wire – “CoreLogic Index Puts Home Prices Up 1.7% in March” (5-19-10)

“National home prices increased 1.7% in March 2010 compared to the same month one year ago, marking the second month of year-over-year increases in the CoreLogic home price index (HPI). The March results are better than the upwardly revised 0.8% year-over-year increase in February, the first in more than three years, CoreLogic said. In 51 of the country’s 100 largest Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs), prices increased year-over-year in March, up from 42 CBSAs in February.”]

Housing Wire – “New MDA DataQuick Partnership to Map Latest Real Estate Data” (5-19-10)

“The companies will form MDA DataQuick PropertyFinder 2G, a nationwide database of property and ownership information. It will include details on property profiles, history, demographics, nearby schools and businesses. John Walsh, president of MDA DataQuick, said the partnership will help customers visualize the real estate data it already provides.”

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

The NAHB reports U.S. home-builder sentiment rose in May to the highest level in more than 2-1/2 years. The FDIC has shut down 72 banks so far in 2010. Based on a survey of 3,000 Western Union customers, 45% of respondents with a modified mortgage indicated scheduling regular payments will prevent re-default. According to Altera Real Estate, current housing demand has reached 2005 levels, just before the turn in the housing market.

In The News:

North Bay Business Journal – “115 agencies statewide defer impact fees” (5-17-10)

“Assembly Bill 2604 allows local governments to defer until close of escrow the collection of fees used to fund construction of public improvements or facilities. Previously, the fees had to be deferred until issuance of the certificate of occupancy or building permits, unless the funds were needed immediately or within 12 months.”

CNBC - “Homebuilder Confidence Hits 2-1/2 Year High in May” (5-17-10)

“U.S. home-builder sentiment rose in May to the highest level in more than 2-1/2 years, boosted by a homebuyer tax credit and strengthening economy, the National Association of Home Builders said on Monday. ”

Housing Wire – “Monday Morning Cup of Coffee” (5-17-10)

“Regulators shuttered four banks on Friday, located in Georgia, Illinois, Michigan and Missouri. The closures are expected to cost the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) $301.5m. They bring the running 2010 total to 72 banks closed so far this year. By the same week last year, only 33 banks had been shut down.”

Housing Wire – “Western Union Sees Borrowers Take Control of Mortgage Fate” (5-17-10)

“Based on a survey of 3,000 Western Union customers, 45% of respondents with a modified mortgage indicated scheduling regular payments will prevent re-default. Almost one-third believe modifying their mortgage will improve their debt situation. But Western Union noted a need for greater borrower education in terms of loss mitigation options. For example, approximately half of respondents with a mortgage do not fully understand the requirements to qualify for modification or refinance.”

Orange County Register – “Home demand off 5% as tax break ends” (5-17-10)

“Current housing demand has reached 2005 levels, just before the turn in the housing market. Demand, the number of new pending sales over the prior month, decreased by 209 homes over the prior two weeks and now totals 3,770, a 5% drop.”

Inman - “6 ways agents avoid ‘clunker’ clients” (5-17-10)

“One of the most important steps you can take to attract more high-quality new business is to know who is a good fit for your business and who is not. Because we are still experiencing a sluggish market in most areas, it’s tempting for agents to take almost any customer who wants to buy or sell a piece of real estate. This is a poor strategy in the long run, and here’s why: When you’re willing to work with almost anyone, you often say “yes” to clients who will never close a transaction.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, the months of unsold, Bay Area inventory of existing single-family homes priced above $1 million reached 14 months. The government considered lifting the $729,750 conforming loan limit in place for high-cost markets. Builder confidence increased for two straight months in May 2009.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

The NAHB reports that builder confidence increased from Q1 2009, but is still low. The MBA’s weekly survey shows that mortgage application volume increased by 3.4 percent. According to Freddie Mac, of all borrowers who had 30-year FRMs, 75% refinanced into a new 30-year FRM. Barclays estimates that foreclosure shadow inventory should peak during the summer of 2010.

In The News:

NAHB - “Active Adult Home Builder Activity, Confidence Remain Low” (5-12-10)

“The 55+ single-family HMI measures builder sentiments based on current sales, prospective buyer traffic and anticipated six-month sales for the 55+ single-family market.  A number greater than 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor. Although the index recorded a slight rise in the first quarter of 2010 – moving up two points to 19 from its 2009 Q1 level of 17 – the level of confidence remains low.”

Mortgage Bankers Association – “Refinance Applications Surge, Purchase Applications Drop in Latest MBA Weekly Survey” (5-12-10)

“The Refinance Index increased 14.8 percent from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 9.5 percent from one week earlier.  The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 8.9 percent compared with the previous week and was 0.6 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 7, 2010.  The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 3.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.  On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 3.4 percent compared with the previous week.”

Inman - “More U.S. residents on the move” (5-12-10)

“The percentage of U.S. residents who moved between 2008 and 2009 jumped to 12.5 percent (37.1 million people), according to a report by the U.S. Census Bureau. That increase comes after a record-low move rate between 2007 and 2008: 11.9 percent, or 35.2 million people. The bureau’s data comes from the 2009 Current Population Survey conducted between February and April every year at about 100,000 U.S. addresses. It includes residents who are at least 1 year old.”

Housing Wire – “Freddie Mortgage Refinancing Dominated by Fixed-Rate Products” (5-12-10)

“Of borrowers who had 30-year FRMs, 75% refinanced into a new 30-year FRM, while 15% opted for a 15-year FRM and the remaining 10% chose a 20-year FRM. Freddie said the combined 25% of 30-year borrowers that refinanced into a shorter-term loan is the most since Q304, when 30% of 30-year borrowers refinanced into a balloon mortgage or shorter-term FRM.”

Housing Wire – “Shadow Inventory To Peak in Summer of 2010: Barclays” (5-12-10)

“The shadow inventory of foreclosures should peak in the summer of 2010 before falling gradually in the later months, according to a new report from Barclays Capital. Barclays defines the shadow inventory of foreclosures as loans in 90-plus day delinquency or already in the foreclosure process. According to the report, there are currently 2.4m loans in 90-plus day delinquency and another 2.1m in foreclosure, totaling 4.5m in the shadow inventory.”

Housing Wire – “End in Sight for General Growth Bankruptcy” (5-12-10)

“The end is in sight, as a plan is in place for General Growth Properties (GGP: 14.96 +0.20%) to emerge from bankruptcy as early as this summer. The judge overseeing the case approved bidding procedures and the issuance of warrants to a group of investors led by Brookfield Asset Management (BAM: 25.49 +1.03%).”

Bloomberg - “‘Perfect Quarter’ at Four U.S. Banks Shows Fed-Fueled Revival” (5-12-10)

“Bank of America Corp., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the first, second and fifth-biggest U.S. banks by assets, all said in regulatory filings that they had zero days of trading losses in the first quarter. Citigroup Inc., the third-largest, doesn’t break out its daily trading revenue by quarter. It recorded a profit on each trading day, two people with knowledge of the results said.”

Bloomberg - “Morgan Stanley’s Gorman Denies Bank Misled CDO Buyers” (5-12-10)

“Morgan Stanley Chief Executive Officer James Gorman denied allegations the U.S. bank misled investors about mortgage derivatives it sold them. The firm is being probed by U.S. prosecutors over whether the bank misled clients when it sold them collateralized debt obligations as its own traders bet that the value of the securities would drop, the Wall Street Journal reported today. The New York-based firm hasn’t been contacted by the Justice Department, Gorman told reporters in Tokyo today.”

A study from USC shows that immigrants are more attracted to mid-size cities. Goodman claims HAMP is bound to fail because of its failure to address negative equity. According to Realpoint, the delinquency rate among commercial mortgage-backed securities reached 6 percent last month. First American CoreLogic estimates the average home experiencing negative equity will not obtain positive equity until late 2015.

In The News:

NAHB - “New CRE Limits Could Jeopardize Housing and Economic Recovery” (3-29-10)

“Proposals by federal banking regulators to tighten restrictions on commercial real estate (CRE) lending could further exacerbate a severe acquisition, development and construction (AD&C) credit crisis that is choking off new home building activity and threatening the fragile housing recovery now under way, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB).”

Orange County Register – “317,000 properties to get tax-cut review” (3-29-10)

“The Orange County Assessor’s office has announced plans to review the taxable value of 317,000 parcels this year to determine if their owners are eligible for further property tax cuts. That’s 35% of the nearly 900,000 real estate parcels in the county.”

Los Angeles Times – “Consumer spending up, sign of decent recovery” (3-29-10)

“The Commerce Department reported Monday that consumers boosted their spending by 0.3 percent in February. That was a tad slower than the 0.4 percent increase registered in January and marked the smallest increase since September. Still, the increase in spending was considered a respectable showing, especially given the snowstorms that slammed the East Coast and kept some people away from the malls. It marked the fifth straight month that consumer spending rose.”

Inman - “Study: Mid-size cities attract immigrants” (3-29-10)

“A growing number of immigrants are attracted to mid-size cities with lower housing costs, less competition for jobs, and increasing numbers of other immigrants, according to a recent study by the University of Southern California Lusk Center for Real Estate.”

Housing Wire – “Monday Morning Cup of Coffee” (3-29-10)

“Goodman criticized the first incarnation of the Making Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) because it did not address negative equity. According to her analysis, as long as borrowers are deeply underwater, they are unlikely to pay in the long term. Thus, the re-default rate will be very high, and the dead weight costs of foreclosure have not been avoided.”

Housing Wire – “New CMBS Projections Push 2010 Delinquencies into Double Digits” (3-29-10)

“In February 2010, the delinquency rate among commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) pools reached 6%, up from 5.7% in January and, according to the analytics firm Realpoint, could be possibly heading toward 11-to-12% by the end of the year. Realpoint tracked delinquency data on $797bn of CMBS pools for the report. The total delinquent unpaid balance for CMBS increased $1.8bn in February, up to $47.8bn. It’s an almost 300% increase from one-year ago when $11.9bn was reported for February 2009 and is now 21 times more than the trough of $2.2bn in March 2007.”

Housing Wire – “Positive Equity Won’t Return For Most Underwater Borrowers Until 2015″ (3-29-10)

“First American CoreLogic estimates that the typical US homeowner who is in negative equity will not experience positive equity until late 2015 to early 2016. In severely depressed markets, the typical borrower in negative equity may not experience positive equity until 2020 or later. CoreLogic projects more than 11.3m — or 24% — of all residential properties with mortgages had negative equity at the end of the Q409. While the largest decreases in home prices appear to have already happened, it remains to be seen when borrowers will return to positive equity.”

Bloomberg - “Goldman Capitulation on Dollar Shows Reversal on U.S.” (3-29-10)

“The strengthening U.S. economy, subdued inflation and rising stock prices are propelling the dollar rally into its fifth month as traders seek refuge from Europe’s fiscal crisis and Japanese deflation. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Citigroup Inc. ended bets on a falling dollar last week after the trades lost 2.8 percent. Strategists are raising greenback forecasts at the fastest pace since last March, just before U.S. stimulus efforts that poured as much as $12.8 trillion into the economy ended the currency’s strongest rally in 28 years. Median predictions for the dollar against 47 currencies tracked in Bloomberg surveys rose an average of 1.4 percentage points in the month to March 24.”

Builder confidence decreased by over 10 percent since the beginning of March. Sacramento home sales decreased by 26 percent from last year. According to LPS, the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate is currently at 10.25%. California contributed $2.6trn to the total $5.7trn of US housing wealth lost since the peak of 2006.

In The News:

NAHB - “Foreclosures Weigh on Builder Confidence in March” (3-15-10)

“Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes fell back two points to 15 in March as poor weather conditions and distressed property sales posed increasing challenges to both builders and buyers, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today.”

Sacramento Bee – “A typical slow February for Sacramento home sales” (3-15-10)

“The Sacramento Association of Realtors reports this morning that home sales continue in their sluggish winter pattern, with 1,156 homes closing escrow during February in Sacramento County and the City of West Sacramento. February sales of existing homes were essentially flat from January, and down 26 percent from Feb. 2009, SAR reported. The median price of $179,900 was up from $170,000 in January and up 7.7 percent from Feb. 2009.”

Wall Street Journal – “Mortgage Fraud Declines but Remains Virulent” (3-15-10)

“First American CoreLogic, a real estate information supplier, compiles an index of the rate of fraud on home mortgages. A version of the index that excludes subprime loans peaked in 2007 at about 112 (on a scale that equates the early-2005 level to 100). It has since dropped to 84.”

Housing Wire – “Housing Recovery is Spelled R-E-O” (3-15-10)

“According to data from Lender Processing Services (LPS: 40.02 -1.43%), a whopping 7.4m loans are now non-current, compared to just 4.1m on average between January and June of 2008.”

Housing Wire - “Pace of Mortgage Delinquency Slowing: LPS” (3-15-10)

“The total loan delinquency rate of US mortgages is 10.25% as of January 2010 — a 2% increase from December 2009 and a 22.1% increase from January 2009, according to mortgage performance data and analytics provider Lender Processing Services (LPS: 40.02 -1.43%). Another 3.3% of foreclosure inventory brings the total non-current rate to 13.5% in January.”

Housing Wire – “In California, a Unique State of Mortgage Borrower Behavior” (3-15-10)

“The state contributed $2.6trn to the total $5.7trn of US housing wealth lost since the peak of the housing market in Q2 2006, according to US asset-backed securities research this week from Deutsche Bank.”

Bloomberg - “Housing Real-Estate Recovery Signaled as Fed Unwinds” (3-15-10)

“The U.S. housing market is poised to withstand the removal of government and Federal Reserve stimulus programs and rebound later in the year, contributing to annual economic growth for the first time since 2006. Increases in jobs, credit and affordable homes will help offset the end of the Fed’s purchases of mortgage-backed securities this month and the expiration of a federal homebuyer tax credit in April. Sales will rise about 6 percent this year, and housing will account for 0.25 percentage point of the 3.6 percent growth, according to forecasts by Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist for Barclays Capital in New York.”

Based on results from a recent poll, 68 percent of U.S. citizens support the government’s involvement in the housing market. Fannie Mae announced plans to buy 150,000 to 200,000 delinquent loans from MBS trusts this month. Economist Jan Hatzius believes that we will not see an interest rate increase any time in the near future. Realtors advise that staging is a critical component of selling a home.

In The News:

NAHB – “Poll Shows Strong Support for Government Housing Initiatives” (3-1-10)

“Americans remain strongly committed to federal support for home buyers, according to a recent survey of U.S. households. Roughly 68 percent of those polled said the government should continue to support housing, and 65 percent believe the government should be doing more to keep families from losing their homes to foreclosure.”

Press Enterprise – “New Homes sip, don’t gulp, water” (3-2-10)

“The study found that homes built in 2009 consume 20 percent less water than homes built in 1990, with each house saving on average over 15,000 gallons a year. Also homes built to 2011 standards will further lower indoor water use by 21 percent, saving another 12,000 gallons a year.”

Housing Wire - “Fannie to Buy up to 200,000 Delinquent Mortgages in March” (3-2-10)

“Government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) Fannie Mae (FNM: 1.00 +1.01%) said Monday it expects to purchase from 150,000 to 200,000 delinquent loans out of single-family mortgage-backed security (MBS) trusts during March.”

Bloomberg – “Home-Price Drop in U.S. Supports Low-Rate Outlook: Chart of Day” (3-2-10)

“A possible relapse in home prices that had Fed policy makers concerned late last year may now be coming to pass, underscoring forecasts by economists such as Jan Hatzius that an interest-rate increase is a long way off.”

Inman – “Real estate Darwinism” (3-2-10)

“Today’s brokers and agents who survive and lead us out of this current mess are going to be those most willing to change. They will share three key attributes: they will be the most competent in their craft, utilize all available technology, and be the most dedicated to customer service. Undoubtedly, these changes will be fundamental. Externally, technology will continue to drive our industry change, and internally, change will be in the form of technology and reduced commissions. Sounds simple, but the transformation to the brokerage of 2020 will be drastic.”

Realty Times – “Focusing on the Median Price Can Be Misleading” (3-2-10)

“Many observers have noted that the rise in the median does not necessarily indicate a rise in prices in general. Rather, it is reflective of more activity at higher price ranges than had been experienced in the recent past. In many market areas, for the past year to year and-a-half the greatest activity – practically frenzy in some areas – has been at the bottom of the price ranges. This is not a surprise. Smaller condominiums and starter homes were generally what constituted the first wave of foreclosures on loans that never should have happened. More recently, though, the number of sales has increased in higher price ranges. As the effects of high unemployment and a staggering economy spread throughout the land, there are more sales – many of them distressed sales – of larger homes, ones that people expected to live in a long time.”

Realty Times – “Sellers: Staging is a Must” (3-2-10)

“As a seller, you want your home to make a positive first impression. In order to do this, you repair, clean, and strategize marketing for your open houses, but home staging takes it one step further. It allows the buyer both the mental space to imagine their own belongings in the rooms and the ability to get excited about the life they could have in your home.”

 CBIA announced that housing affordability has decreased in 22 of California’s 28 metropolitan areas. The Commerce Department reports that housing and apartment construction increased by 2.8 percent last month. According to SFAR, there is a 3.5 month supply of housing inventory in the San Francisco market. A survey shows that large investment companies are spending more on REIT investments.

In The News:

CBIA – “California Housing Affordability Continues Slide in Fourth Quarter, CBIA Announces” (2-17-10)

“Housing affordability in California continued to fall throughout most of the state during the fourth quarter of 2009, the California Building Industry Association said today. The quarterly National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index found that homes were less affordable in 22 of the state’s 28 metro areas included in the report.”

Mortgage Bankers Association – “Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey” (2-17-10)

“The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 12, 2010.  The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.  On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 0.5 percent compared with the previous week.”

Los Angeles Times – “Housing construction rises 2.8 percent in Janury” (2-17-10)

“The Commerce Department said Wednesday that construction of new homes and apartments rose 2.8 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 591,000 units. That was better than the 580,000 annual pace that economists were forecasting.”

Housing Wire – “Continental Conflicts Arising Over Banker Pay” (2-17-10)

“The majority of banking executives oppose government intervention in setting bank compensation parameters, according to a bank executive survey conducted from Nov. 17-Dec. 3, 2009 by US audit firm Grant Thornton. The sentiment, however, is not as greatly embraced abroad. The survey found 96% of 246 respondents do not agree the government should play a role in determining compensation, while 61% do not think a requirement to evaluate compensation will reduce excessive risk-taking.”

Housing Wire – “San Francisco Inventory at 3.5 Month Supply” (2-17-10)

“Despite a lull in luxury home sales, prices are up and inventory is down in the San Francisco market, according to a joint research report released by the Rosen Consulting Group and the San Francisco Association of Realtors. The report said there is a 3.5-month supply of single-family homes on the market, down from 5.8 months in January 2009. Condo inventory was at a 4.1-month supply, down from 9.5 months in January 2009.”

Housing Wire – “FHFA Proposes New Performance Goals for Fannie, Freddie” (2-17-10)

“The FHFA required, as the first goal for single-family housing, that 27% of the total number of mortgages purchased by Fannie and Freddie be of low-income family housing. The FHFA defined low-income as not exceeding 80% of the area median income.”

Inman - “5 arguments for open houses” (2-17-10)

“Want to pick a fight in a roomful of real estate agents? Ask them whether they think open houses are worthwhile. We did the virtual equivalent of that, sending out an online request for comments from real estate agents about the effectiveness of open houses — and they responded by filling up the old inbox faster than we could clean it out. Their responses range from passionate conviction that open houses are ‘a must,’ to cynical observations that they’re of benefit to no one other than to agents who are trolling for new clients.”

Realty Times – “Investor Report: REITs” (2-17-10)

“New York and London-based research firm Preqin reports that 62 percent of the large investment companies it surveyed said they plan to buy into – or add to their holdings – of private equity REITs, or real estate investment trusts. That’s up from 45 percent in a similar survey Preqin conducted in early 2009.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, the NAHB reported that builder confidence reached an all-time low. CBIA claimed that the pace of new home sales was continuing on a decreasing trend. The California government ended 20,000 jobs. S&P estimated that commercial real estate defaults would reach 3.5 percent by the end of 2009.