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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 9/15/10

Wednesday, September 15th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

Mortgage applications decreased 8.9% this week, according to the MBA. Fannie Mae predicts 2010 sales will total 7.4% less than sales in 2009. UCLA economists predict the unemployment rate will remain above 10% until the end of 2012. GSEs have lost $226 billion since the end of 2007.

In The News:

Mortgage Bankers Association - “Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey” (9-15-10)

“The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 10, 2010.  The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 8.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.  This week’s results include an adjustment to account for the Labor Day holiday. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 27.4 percent compared with the previous week.”

Reuters - “Fannie Mae now sees US home sales drop, not rise” (9-15-10)

“The company is predicting total U.S. sales of new and existing homes in 2010 will drop 7.4 percent from 2009, compared with expectations for a 0.8 percent rise in its forecast last month. It means sales would fall to about 5.12 million homes from 5.53 million units in 2009.”

The Press Enterprise – “UCLA economists say growth will be hard to notice” (9-15-10)

“Now UCLA’s economists say it’s unlikely there will be enough job growth to drive the state’s unemployment level below 10 percent until the end of 2012.”

Housing Wire – “Barr: GSEs won’t exist once reform takes root” (9-15-10)

“Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac won’t exist in their current state once financial reform takes root, according to a top Treasury Department official. Prior to conservatorship two year ago, the government-sponsored entities operated under a ‘heads I win, tails you lose’ system that is unacceptable, Michael Barr said Wednesday before a subcommittee of the House Committee on Financial Services.”

Housing Wire – “FHFA estimates GSEs final cost to taxpayers could reach $400 billion” (9-15-10)

“Speaking before the House Financial Services Committee today, Edward DeMarco, acting director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency maintains that the government-sponsored enterprises could still cost the taxpayers $400 billion. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were taken into conservatorship by the FHFA in September 2008. Since the end of 2007, the GSEs have lost $226 billion with 73% of that stemming from the single-family credit guarantee business. The Treasury has recorded losses of $148 billion attributable to its bailout of Fannie and Freddie.”

Housing Wire – “New project inquiries at residential architecture firms down 24% in 2Q: AIA” (9-15-10)

“Kermit Baker, the chief economist at AIA, said business conditions at architecture firms hit an all-time low in 2008 but had been making a steady recovery to the first quarter of 2010, when these companies reported the first increase in billings in nearly three years.”

Housing Wire - “Zillow 30-year mortgage rates go up, CEO steps down” (9-15-10)

“The 30-year, fixed-mortgage rate increased last week to 4.32% from a near-record low of 4.27% the week prior, according to the Zillow Mortgage Marketplace weekly update.”

Bloomberg - “U.S. Home Prices Face 3-Year Drop as Inventory Surge Looms” (9-15-10)

“Shadow inventory — the supply of homes in default or foreclosure that may be offered for sale — is preventing prices from bottoming after a 28 percent plunge from 2006, according to analysts from Moody’s Analytics Inc., Fannie Mae, Morgan Stanley and Barclays Plc. Those properties are in addition to houses that are vacant or that may soon be put on the market by owners.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, a survey from the National Association of Home Builders showed that buyers were unwilling to pay more for a new “green” home. DQNews reported that the total sales in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange Counties fell 10.8 percent from the previous month. Both Ben Bernanke and Bank of America believed the U.S. financial downturn was coming to an end. The Coopers Korpacz Real Estate Investor Survey estimated that U.S. commercial property would not recover until 2012.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 6/15/10

Tuesday, June 15th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

MDA DataQuick reports A total of 22,270 new and resale houses and condos closed escrow in Southern California last month. According to the NAHB, builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family decreased this month. Having a home with a view is on the top 10 list of preferences for 44.5 percent of men. Morgan Stanley’s research has lead the company to conclude that low mortgage rates will prevent a double dip in prices.

In The News:

DQNews - “Southland median sale price back over $300K; sales at 4-year high” (6-15-10)

“A total of 22,270 new and resale houses and condos closed escrow in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties last month. That was up 9.7 percent from 20,299 in April, and up 7.2 percent from 20,775 in May 2009, according to MDA DataQuick of San Diego.”

NAHB - “Builder Confidence Declines in June” (6-15-10)

“Snapping a string of two consecutive monthly gains, builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes fell back to February levels, before the beginning of the home buyer tax credit-related surge, according to results of the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today. The HMI dropped five points to 17 in June.”

Los Angeles Times – “California’s economy to see sluggish recovery this year, UCLA economists say” (6-15-10)

“California stands to gain some jobs this year but recovery will be sluggish, and the state’s inland areas will bear the brunt of the continuing economic pain, according to a forecast scheduled to be released Tuesday by UCLA’s Anderson School of Business.”

Inman - “Top 10 sought-after home features” (6-15-10)

“Men and women’s top 10 preferences were largely the same with two exceptions: having a view made it onto the men’s list (and not the women’s list), with 44.5 percent of men saying it was a high priority; and wood floors made it onto the women’s list (and not the men’s), with 40.9 percent of women ranking them highly.”

Housing Wire – “Low Mortgage Rates Help Block Double-Dip Threat: Morgan Stanley” (6-15-10)

“The US economics team at financial firm Morgan Stanley (MS: 25.96 +2.49%) says in their latest research report that recent gains in the nation’s economy point to a remote chance of a so-called double dip — where recent upticks in economic activity are only temporary — citing low mortgage rates as a key driver in drawing this conclusion.”

Housing Wire – “Shadow Inventory to Take 3 Years to Clear: Standard & Poor’s” (6-15-10)

“The shadow inventory of distressed properties that back residential mortgage-backed securities will take nearly three years to clear at the current sales rate, according to the credit rating agency, Standard & Poor’s (S&P). S&P puts the total principal balance of the shadow inventory at $480bn or 30% of the entire non-agency market.”

Housing Wire – “BofA Permanent HAMP Modifications Passes 70,000 in May” (6-15-10)

“Bank of America (BAC: 15.76 +2.27%) pushed its total number of permanent modifications under the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) to roughly 70,000 in May, up from 56,400 in April.”

Housing Wire – “MGIC Writes $800m in Monthly Mortgage Insurance, Denies Hundreds of Claims” (6-15-10)

“Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Corp. (MGIC), the principal subsidiary of MGIC Investment Corp. (MTG: 9.12 +8.19%), wrote $800m of primary new mortgage insurance in May, according to monthly operations data. The company denied or rescinded — or canceled the policy relating to — almost 1,000 mortgage insurance claims in the month, helping to further reduce the number of delinquencies on its books, according to a press release.”

Housing Wire – “More Funds Repaid to TARP than Outstanding in May: Treasury” (6-15-10)

“Treasury noted in the April update on TARP that it expects to spend less than $550bn of the $700bn authorized for the program, and expects to recover all but $117bn — an estimate that was subsequently revised to $105.4bn. Of $384bn in total TARP disbursements, more than half — or $194bn — was repaid through May, leaving only $190bn outstanding. The sale of 1.5bn shares of Citigroup (C: 3.975 +2.45%) pushed the repayments past outstandings for the first time in TARP’s history.”

Housing Wire – “In These Thin Times, House Sizes Also Begin to Shrink” (6-15-10)

“In 2007, the average single-family home in the United States peaked at 2,521 square feet. That number did not vary greatly into 2008. However, according to a 2009 report from the Census Bureau, it’s now at an average of 2,438 square feet.”

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 5/12/10

Wednesday, May 12th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

The NAHB reports that builder confidence increased from Q1 2009, but is still low. The MBA’s weekly survey shows that mortgage application volume increased by 3.4 percent. According to Freddie Mac, of all borrowers who had 30-year FRMs, 75% refinanced into a new 30-year FRM. Barclays estimates that foreclosure shadow inventory should peak during the summer of 2010.

In The News:

NAHB - “Active Adult Home Builder Activity, Confidence Remain Low” (5-12-10)

“The 55+ single-family HMI measures builder sentiments based on current sales, prospective buyer traffic and anticipated six-month sales for the 55+ single-family market.  A number greater than 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor. Although the index recorded a slight rise in the first quarter of 2010 – moving up two points to 19 from its 2009 Q1 level of 17 – the level of confidence remains low.”

Mortgage Bankers Association – “Refinance Applications Surge, Purchase Applications Drop in Latest MBA Weekly Survey” (5-12-10)

“The Refinance Index increased 14.8 percent from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 9.5 percent from one week earlier.  The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 8.9 percent compared with the previous week and was 0.6 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 7, 2010.  The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 3.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.  On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 3.4 percent compared with the previous week.”

Inman - “More U.S. residents on the move” (5-12-10)

“The percentage of U.S. residents who moved between 2008 and 2009 jumped to 12.5 percent (37.1 million people), according to a report by the U.S. Census Bureau. That increase comes after a record-low move rate between 2007 and 2008: 11.9 percent, or 35.2 million people. The bureau’s data comes from the 2009 Current Population Survey conducted between February and April every year at about 100,000 U.S. addresses. It includes residents who are at least 1 year old.”

Housing Wire – “Freddie Mortgage Refinancing Dominated by Fixed-Rate Products” (5-12-10)

“Of borrowers who had 30-year FRMs, 75% refinanced into a new 30-year FRM, while 15% opted for a 15-year FRM and the remaining 10% chose a 20-year FRM. Freddie said the combined 25% of 30-year borrowers that refinanced into a shorter-term loan is the most since Q304, when 30% of 30-year borrowers refinanced into a balloon mortgage or shorter-term FRM.”

Housing Wire – “Shadow Inventory To Peak in Summer of 2010: Barclays” (5-12-10)

“The shadow inventory of foreclosures should peak in the summer of 2010 before falling gradually in the later months, according to a new report from Barclays Capital. Barclays defines the shadow inventory of foreclosures as loans in 90-plus day delinquency or already in the foreclosure process. According to the report, there are currently 2.4m loans in 90-plus day delinquency and another 2.1m in foreclosure, totaling 4.5m in the shadow inventory.”

Housing Wire – “End in Sight for General Growth Bankruptcy” (5-12-10)

“The end is in sight, as a plan is in place for General Growth Properties (GGP: 14.96 +0.20%) to emerge from bankruptcy as early as this summer. The judge overseeing the case approved bidding procedures and the issuance of warrants to a group of investors led by Brookfield Asset Management (BAM: 25.49 +1.03%).”

Bloomberg - “‘Perfect Quarter’ at Four U.S. Banks Shows Fed-Fueled Revival” (5-12-10)

“Bank of America Corp., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the first, second and fifth-biggest U.S. banks by assets, all said in regulatory filings that they had zero days of trading losses in the first quarter. Citigroup Inc., the third-largest, doesn’t break out its daily trading revenue by quarter. It recorded a profit on each trading day, two people with knowledge of the results said.”

Bloomberg - “Morgan Stanley’s Gorman Denies Bank Misled CDO Buyers” (5-12-10)

“Morgan Stanley Chief Executive Officer James Gorman denied allegations the U.S. bank misled investors about mortgage derivatives it sold them. The firm is being probed by U.S. prosecutors over whether the bank misled clients when it sold them collateralized debt obligations as its own traders bet that the value of the securities would drop, the Wall Street Journal reported today. The New York-based firm hasn’t been contacted by the Justice Department, Gorman told reporters in Tokyo today.”

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 4/29/10

Thursday, April 29th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

Freddie Mac claims the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages was 5.06 percent this week. Zillow estimates that home inventory will increase in the near future. The California Housing Finance Agency is proposing a plan to spend $699.6m from the Hardest Hit Fund. According to Morgan Stanley, about 12 percent of all mortgage defaults in February.

In The News:

Sign On San Diego – “Mortgage rates stay above 5 pct” (4-29-10)

“The mortgage financier Freddie Mac said Thursday that the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages was 5.06 percent this week, down a tick from 5.07 percent last week. A year ago, Freddie Mac says 30-year fixed rate mortgages averaged 4.84 percent.”

Inman - “Watch for inventory rise despite tax credit’s sales boost” (4-29-10)

“Although the most recent numbers out for home sales — both new and existing — showed a surge, inventory may yet continue to rise past the summer, according to an analysis by property search and valuation site Zillow.”

Housing Wire – “California Releases $699m Hardest Hit Fund Proposal” (4-29-10)

“The California Housing Finance Agency (CalHFA) is the latest to release its proposal sent to the Treasury Department, laying out a plan to spend $699.6m from the Hardest Hit Fund. In March, the Treasury cleared HFAs of five states where house prices dropped 20% from the peak to submit proposals to use the funds from the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). Florida, Michigan and Arizona were the first to release their proposals, while Nevada has still not released its plan to spend $102.8m from the fund.”

Bloomberg - “‘Strategic’ Mortgage Defaults Jump to 12% of Total” (4-29-10)

“Decisions by U.S. homeowners to walk away from mortgages they can afford account for an increasing share of defaults, according to Morgan Stanley. About 12 percent of all mortgage defaults in February were ‘strategic,’ up from 4 percent in mid-2007, New York-based Morgan Stanley analysts led by Vishwanath Tirupattur wrote in a report today. Borrowers are more likely to stop paying their mortgages the higher their credit scores and the larger their loans, the analysts said.”

Inman - “5 ways to give Gen X, Gen Y what they want” (4-29-10)

“Today’s buyers and sellers are stalking agents online for as much as 18 months before they will feel comfortable enough to do business with an agent. The question is: Once potential clients find you, how can you keep them engaged long enough that they will do business with you, especially when you don’t know who they are?”

Inman - “Figuring out new RESPA rules: lenders report delays, confusion” (4-29-10)

“Many lenders haven’t yet fully implemented technology to comply with new rules that took effect this year under the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act (RESPA), and most are taking longer to provide disclosures when borrowers submit loan applications, according to a survey by Equifax. The Equifax survey of 105 lenders who use its employment and income verification service found 79 percent are taking longer to take an application and provide disclosures to borrowers since the RESPA rule change went into effect Jan. 1. About 72 percent of lenders said borrowers were confused about the multiple disclosure documents they receive.”

Realty Times – “30-yr Fixed Mortgages Available at 4.875%, Rates Stable” (4-29-10)

“FreeRateUpdate.com research of wholesale lenders’ rate sheets shows conventional 30-yr fixed mortgages available today at 4.875% to well-qualified consumers paying a standard origination fee of .07 to 1 point. 15-year fixed mortgages remain available at 4.25, and the 5/1 ARM is available at 3.625%.”

Realty Times – “Real Estate Outlook: Signs of Recovery” (4-29-10)

“Fannie Mae’s economics department issued its forecast for the balance of the year last week – and the tone was moderately optimistic. Fannie projects national economic growth – as measured by the gross domestic product or GDP – to gain about 3.1 percent this year. That won’t be enough to make a major dent in the jobless rate, said the economists, but it should reflect a slow but steady improvement in key employment sectors, including manufacturing.”

Looking Back:

The U.S. Treasury Department made plans to spend $50 billion to pay off mortgage investors and reduce monthly payments for millions of borrowers. A CNN poll showed that Americans were becoming significantly more optimistic about the future of the economy. California regulators authorized 600 brokers to negotiate loan modifications. Gross domestic product dropped to a 6.1 percent rate in the first quarter of 2009.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 3/23/10

Tuesday, March 23rd, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

According to the NAR, existing home sales decreased by 0.6 percent last month. The California senate has approved of a new homebuyer tax credit, which awaits approval from Governor Schwarzenegger. Nothaft claims the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will reach 5.6 percent by the end of 2010.  The Los Angeles-based home builder, KB Homes, experienced a profit loss beyond which was previously expected.

In The News:

NAR - “February Existing-Home Sales Ease with Mixed Conditions Around the Country” (3-23-10)

“Existing-home sales, which are finalized transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, slipped 0.6 percent nationally to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.02 million units in February from 5.05 million in January, but are 7.0 percent higher than the 4.69 million-unit pace in February 2009.”

CBIA - “Legislature Approves New Homebuyer Tax Credit” (3-23-10)

“The committee quickly acted on the proposal and sent it to the full Senate, where it passed by a 29-1 vote. It moved immediately to the Assembly, which approved the legislation minutes later by a 67-2 vote. It now awaits the Governor’s signature, which is expected Thursday since the proposal came from Schwarzenegger during his January State of the State address. Since then, he has made several public pitches for the tax credit, and last week sent a stern letter to legislative leaders seeking action on the tax credit and other proposals in his economic package.”

Bloomberg - “KB Home Reports Loss on Lower Revenue; Shares Fall” (3-23-10)

“KB Home, the Los Angeles-based homebuilder that sells to first-time buyers, reported a wider fiscal first-quarter loss than analysts expected as revenue declined and order growth slowed. The net loss in the quarter ended Feb. 28 was $54.7 million, or 71 cents a share, KB Home said in a statement today. It narrowed from a loss of $58.1 million, or 75 cents, a year earlier because of fewer inventory writedowns. Analysts predicted a loss of 41 cents a share, according to the average of 11 estimates in a Bloomberg survey. Revenue fell 14 percent to $264 million, the company said.”

Realty Times – “Real Estate Outlook: Freddie Mac Predicts Positive Recovery” (3-23-10)

“Notehalf’s econometric models point to expansion of the U.S. economy in the 3.3 to 3.5 percent range, as measured by the Gross Domestic Product (or GDP) through 2011. In economic terms, that’s sort of a ‘not too hot, not too cold’ scenario that helps keep interest rates low and inflation under control. Nothaft forecasts average 30-year mortgage rates around 5.6 percent by the end of the year – up from today’s rates but still in historically low territory and not high enough to seriously constrain housing demand or sales.”

Housing Wire – “Morgan Stanley Raises $370m to Invest in Private Equity Real Estate Funds” (3-23-10)

“Investment bank Morgan Stanley (MS: 29.53 -0.24%) is looking to seize opportunities in investing in private equity real estate funds with its recently created Phoenix Global Real Estate Secondaries platform. And so far, Phoenix is seeing success as the initial $250m capital-raising target exceeded the mark with an additional $120m raised.”

Housing Wire – “House Republicans Want to Wind Down GSEs” (3-23-10)

“Republicans in the House of Representatives, led by Financial Services Committee ranking member Rep. Spencer Bachus (R-AL), authored a list of principals they wish to see as part of ‘immediate’ legislative efforts to plan for the future of the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs).”

Looking Back:

One year ago, the NAR reported a 5.1 percent increase in existing home sales within 1 month. Commercial and multifamily mortgage debt increased by $23 billion during the 4th quarter of 2008. The country’s 10 largest banks owned a total of $327.6 billion in commercial mortgages.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 1/20/10

Wednesday, January 20th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

The MBA’s Market Composite Index shows that loan application volume increased by 9.1 percent. Policy changes for FHA will consequently cause borrowers to pay more on their FHA-insured mortgages. HUD reports that housing starts declined 4% in December. Regional housing inflation rose 0.2% in Southern California.

In The News:

Mortgage Bankers Association – “Refinance Applications Increase as Mortgage Rates Fall in Latest MBA Weekly Survey” (1-20-10)

“The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 15, 2010. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 9.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 10.4 percent compared with the previous week and decreased 52.3 percent compared with the same week one year earlier.”

Mortgage Bankers Association – “MBA Comments on Changes to FHA Credit Policy” (1-20-10)

“Borrowers may have to pay a little more for their FHA-insured mortgages or certain borrowers will have to put more money down for their home, but these changes are necessary given the stress that the housing downturn has put on the FHA program.”

Housing Wire – “Commercial Real Estate Investor Demand to Grow in 2010″ (1-20-10)

“The start of 2010 is showing signs of growing investor demand in US commercial real estate, and potentially in related secondary markets, despite the lagging performance of underlying collateral. The pick-up is also predicted to be mirrored in similar markets in Europe and Asia; areas expected to see comparatively better performance. In a report from the rating agency Moody’s, analysts project some pick-up in commercial real estate (CRE) demand after Q409, which would help markets after little movement for much of the year.”

Housing Wire – “Housing Starts Drop, Permits Up in December” (1-20-10)

“After jumping up 8.9% one month earlier, housing starts declined 4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 557,000 in December, according to the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau.”

Housing Wire - “BofA Posts $5.2bn Loss in Q409 After TARP Repayment” (1-20-10)

“In the same quarter of 2008, BofA posted a net less of $2.4bn, or $0.48 per diluted share. Excluding the $4bn TARP repayment, BofA had a net loss of $194m in Q409, which narrowed from the $1.8bn loss from a year earlier. For all of 2009, BofA reported a net income of $6.3bn, an improvement from $4bn in 2008.”

Housing Wire – “Morgan Stanley Posts $413m Q409 Profit as Real Estate Gains” (1-20-10)

“Firm-wide results for the full year reflected $1.9bn of net losses on real estate investments ‘amidst the ongoing industry-wide decline in this market,’ Morgan Stanley said in the earnings statement.”

Housing Wire – “Wells Fargo Posts Record $12.3bn Annual Net Income” (1-20-10)

“Wells Fargo said mortgage originations and servicing revenue was $3.4bn in the quarter, and its total mortgage banking noninterest income accounted for 15% of the company’s consolidated Q409 revenue. The bank had $1.2bn in income from mortgage origination and sales activities on $94bn of residential mortgage originations and $144bn of applications.”

Bloomberg - “‘Tranche Warfare’ Erupts as Property Owners Slide Into Default” (1-20-10)

“Infighting among lenders with different classes of debt, called tranches, is on the rise in the hotel industry and throughout the $3.5 trillion market for commercial real estate loans after property prices fell more than 40 percent from their peak in 2007. Commercial mortgage defaults more than doubled to 3.4 percent in last year’s third quarter from a year earlier.”

Bloomberg - “Property Bonds Beat Corporates as Simon Sells: Credit Markets” (1-20-10)

“Real estate borrowers are leading the rally in U.S. corporate bonds as investors add to bets property companies will weather an increase in commercial mortgage defaults. Bonds sold by real-estate investment trusts, shopping-mall owners and office landlords have gained 3.27 percent this month, exceeding 3.18 percent for all of the fourth quarter, and BBB rated commercial mortgage bonds returned 3.59 percent, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes. The gains are the biggest among investment-grade issuers, which returned 1.65 percent so far in 2010, the indexes show.”

Orange County Register – “SoCal housing inflation lowest in 32+ years” (1-20-10)

“Overall regional housing inflation rose 0.2% for the year, lowest since they started this data series in 1977. Household energy costs fell 8.8% last year, biggest drop in the series that dates to 1977.”

Orange County Register – “408 south coast homes in default on loans” (1-20-10)

“There are hundreds of homes in Dana Point, Laguna Beach and San Clemente that are in default on their mortgages and in danger of being foreclosed. According to Trulia.com, a total of 408 homes in these south coastal communities have received a notice of default from their bank, which typically follows one or often a series of missed mortgage payments and a late notice.”

Inman - “Zillow, Trulia slip in Hitwise ratings” (1-20-10)

“Realtor.com remained the dominant Web site in the real estate category, with 6.79 percent market share. Rounding out the top 10 Web sites were Yahoo! Real Estate (3.8 percent), Zillow (3.5 percent), ZipRealty (2.91 percent), eBay’s Rent.com (2.57 percent), Service Magic (2.27 percent), Trulia.com (2.16 percent), Homes.com (1.99 percent), MSN Real Estate (1.78 percent) and Apartments.com (1.32 percent).”

Inman - “Google, RPR and the future” (1-20-10)

“Marty Frame, president of NAR’s Realtors Property Resource, which seeks to create a national database of property information and a new property-valuation system for Realtors to access, discusses RPR plans with Dale Ross, RPR CEO.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, congress voted to use the second half of the $700 billion TARP bailout. FHA was offering 3.5%-down mortgages to qualified buyers. Nouriel Roubini predicted that the U.S. financial crisis may reach $3.6 trillion. Dataquick reported that foreclosures made up just 6 percent of resales in August 2007.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 1/11/10

Monday, January 11th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

The national unemployment rate remained at 10 percent during December. LPS reports that 1 in every 7.5 fell into foreclosure or delinquency during November. According to Fitch Ratings, 2009 commercial delinquency rates ended at 4.71%.

In The news:

Bloomberg - “Shrinking U.S. Labor Force Keeps Unemployment Rate From Rising” (1-9-09)

“An exodus of discouraged workers from the job market kept the U.S. unemployment rate from climbing above 10 percent in December, economists said.”

Housing Wire – “More than 13% of Mortgages Delinquent or Foreclosed in November: LPS” (1-11-09)

“One in every 7.5 homeowners either fell into delinquency or foreclosure as of November 30, 2009, according to the December mortgage monitor report from Lender Processing Services (LPS), a mortgage data provider. The total amount of delinquencies reached a record high 9.97%, a 5.46% increase from the previous month and a 21.29% increase from November 2008. In a sign that homeowners continue their struggle to meet their monthly mortgage payments, loans falling into more severe delinquent categories reached 5.01% through November, compared to 1.52% of loans improved toward a current status.”

Housing Wire – “$47bn of Interest-Only RMBS Loans to Recast This Year, Fitch Says” (1-11-09)

“More than $47bn of collateral backing prime and Alt-A residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) is scheduled to recast over the next 12 months from an interest-only (IO) payment to a fully amortizing payment, Fitch Ratings said in market commentary Monday.”

Housing Wire – “Financial, Mortgage Hirings Up as Overall Employment Dips” (1-11-09)

“The DOL’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Friday said the national unemployment rate was 10% in December, unchanged from November. Despite the overall loss, the financial-activities sector gained a net 4,000 jobs in December, the first gain since summer 2007, according to a search of the Bureau of Labor Statistics online database. Jobs increased from November (7,691,000) to 7,695,00 in December.”

Housing Wire – “Q409 Losses on the Way for Banks: Citi” (1-11-09)

“Citigroup (C: 3.63 +1.11%) analysts expect Q409 losses for Morgan Stanley (MS: 32.04 -0.65%), Goldman Sachs (GS: 171.56 -1.58%), Bank of America (BAC: 16.93 +0.89%) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM: 44.53 -0.34%) due to a “substantial” decline in fixed-income, commodities and currencies (FICC) trading, according to a 2010 Outlook report.”

Housing Wire – “CMBS Delinquencies May Double by 2012, Says Fitch” (1-11-09)

“An increase in defaults across property types pushed total commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) delinquencies 42 bps higher, closing 2009 at 4.71% delinquent, according to credit-rating agency Fitch Ratings. The rate of growth in delinquent CMBS looks set to continue in coming years, with a potential peak at 12% in 2012.”

Housing Wire - “Redefault Rates ‘Tragic’, Says Amherst” (1-11-09)

“According to Amherst Securities Group, default and prepayment rates on non-agency, private-label mortgage-backed securities (MBS) were constant in November. However, re-performance rates, where payments return to less than two months delinquent, were down and re-default rates “tragic” in November, according to market commentary provided by the firm.”

Bloomberg - “Fed’s Bullard Says Asset-Purchase Adjustments Main Policy Issue” (1-11-09)

“Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said the main challenge for U.S. policy makers will be to adjust the asset-purchase program so as to continue supporting economic growth without stoking inflation. ”

Looking Back:

One year ago, some Realtors forecasted that condo prices would not bottom in 2009. Congressional budget analysts anticipated a $1.2 trillion deficit for 2009.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 11/24/09

Tuesday, November 24th, 2009

Today’s News Synopsis:

The CIRB reports that homebuilders pulled 6 percent less permits from September. American banks decreased lending by 2.8 percent in the third quarter. The FOMC suspects that the economy will take 5 years to return to an acceptable rate of growth.  According to First American CoreLogic, 23 percent of all US homes are less valuable than the mortgages owed on them.

In The News:

CBIA - “California Housing Starts Continue Decline in October, CBIA Announces” (11-24-09)

“According to statistics compiled by the Construction Industry Research Board (CIRB), homebuilders pulled permits for 2,815 total housing units in October, down 6 percent from September, and down 33 percent from October 2008. Permits for single-family homes totaled 2,017, down 9 percent from the previous month and down 14 percent from same period last year, while multifamily permits totaled 798, up 5 percent from September but down 57 percent from a year ago.”

Los Angeles Times – “Index shows moderate gain in home prices in September” (11-24-09)

“Home prices in 20 U.S. cities ticked up modestly in September, marking the fifth consecutive month of improvement, according to a closely watched national index released this morning. The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller index increased 0.3% from the prior month on a seasonally adjusted basis, after a 1.1% rise in August. The index fell 9.4% from September 2008 and marked the narrowest year-over-year decline since the end of 2007.”

The Washington Post – “Decline in lending is largest since 1984″ (11-24-09)

“Lending by American banks plunged by 2.8 percent in the third quarter, the largest drop since at least 1984 and the fifth consecutive quarter in which banks have reduced lending, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. reported Tuesday morning.”

Housing Wire - “BarCap Acquires Commercial Real Estate Holdings Firm” (11-24-09)

“Barclays Capital, in a joint venture with Goff Capital, acquired Crescent Real Estate Equities Limited Partnership, or Crescent, from Morgan Stanley Real Estate Funding II.”

Housing Wire – “FOMC Sees Sustained Growth Five Years Away” (11-24-09)

“It will be at least five years before the economy experiences a sustainable rate of growth and levels of unemployment and inflation acceptable to the Federal Reserve, the Federal Open Market Committee said in its Nov. 4 meeting.”

Housing Wire – “FHFA Quarterly HPI Up Slightly in Q309″ (11-24-09)

“US house prices inched slightly higher in Q309 compared to Q209 in the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA) seasonally adjusted purchase-only house price index (HPI). The HPI uses sales price information from mortgages acquired by the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs), which increased 0.2% quarter-over-quarter. Year-over-year, the purchase-only HPI decreased 3.8% in the third quarter.”

Housing Wire – “Negative Equity, Not Job Loss, Primary Driver of Defaults” (11-24-09)

“if coming defaults are caused by unemployment, then the relevant response, says Goodman, would be to subsidize mortgage payments. On the other hand, if negative equity triggers defaults, then principal reduction must receive a higher priority in modification program waterfalls.”

Bloomberg - “Almost One in Four U.S. Homeowners Are ‘Underwater’” (11-24-09)

“The number of U.S. homes worth less than the debt owed on them reached almost 10.7 million, or 23 percent of all mortgaged properties, at the end of the third quarter, according to a report from First American CoreLogic.”

Orange County Register – “The biggest home seller mistakes” (11-24-09)

“Learn about your local market. What is selling and how long is it taking to sell? Find out what the trends are in your neighborhood. Is the market rising, falling or flat? How are local inventory levels?”

Looking Back:

One year ago, existing home sales decreased by 3.1 percent in October. The U.S. government announced a plan to spend 7.7 trillion dollars to ease credit problems. Downey Financial said it would file for bankruptcy.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 10/21/09

Wednesday, October 21st, 2009

Today’s News Synopsis:

The MBA reports that mortgage applications decreased by 13.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one weak earlier. According to Altos Research, asking prices increased by 1.5 percent in Los Angeles. The Federal Reserve believes that commercial real estate will not begin to recover for at least 9 more months. Lehman has announced that it intends to begin funding home loans again.

In The News:

Los Angeles Times – “Feared flood of foreclosures in California may be averted” (10-21-09)

“Signs are emerging that a much-feared escalation of California home foreclosures may not happen, as banks respond to government pressure and scale back their repossessions of troubled properties. Statewide, the number of homes taken back by lenders dropped sharply in the three months ended Sept. 30, falling 37% over the same period a year earlier, when foreclosures were at an all-time high.”

Wall Street Journal – “Housing Starts Post Anemic Rise” (10-21-09)

” Housing starts increased 0.5% in September to a 590,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate, the latest piece of data to show the housing market is slowly stabilizing with help from low prices and government tax credits. Separately, the Labor Department reported wholesale prices for finished goods fell 0.6% in September, while the ‘core’ measure that excludes volatile food and energy prices fell 0.1%, a sign that despite the tepid economic recovery, producers still have little leeway to raise prices.”

Mortgage Bankers Association – “Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey” (10-21-09)

“The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 16, 2009. This week’s results include an adjustment to account for the Columbus Day holiday. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 13.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 22.4 percent compared with the previous week.”

Housing Wire – “Mortgage Revenue Boosts US Bancorp Q309 Earnings” (10-21-09)

“The bank experienced a $215m increase in mortgage banking revenue compared to Q308 that it credited to loan production volume of $14.8bn and loan applications totaling $15.5bn. Residential mortgage lending increased 1.8% from Q209 to Q309.”

Housing Wire – “Home Prices Tick Down 0.5% in September, Says Altos” (10-21-09)

“Of the 26 markets Altos Research examines, asking prices increased in only five, including Los Angeles, which experienced a 1.5% increase, the largest of the 26 markets. Phoenix had the largest monthly decrease of 3.7%.”

Housing Wire – “Little Chance of CRE Recovery Until 2H10: Beige Book” (10-21-09)

“While residential real estate and manufacturing sectors of the economy are reporting positive improvements, commercial real estate remains one of the weakest sectors. According to the Federal Reserve Beige Book, any evidence of a recovery in the sector is unlikely for at least nine more months”

Housing Wire – “Mortgage Insurer OKs 93% of HARP Requests” (10-21-09)

“PMI Mortgage Insurance Co. approved 93% of its requests for a mortgage workout through the Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP). HARP allows nearly 5m homeowners with loans owned or guaranteed by Fannie Mae (FNM: 1.23 +9.82%) or Freddie Mac (FRE: 1.39 +12.10%) the opportunity to refinance into more affordable monthly payments.”

Housing Wire – “Morgan Stanley Posts Profit on Strong Investment Banking” (10-21-09)

“Morgan Stanley (MS: 34.08 +4.80%) posted a net $757m profit, or $0.38 per share, in Q309 — its first quarterly profit in a year — as a 74% increase in investment banking profit neutralized $400m in real estate-related losses.”

Housing Wire – “KeyCorp Loses Net $438m, Raises Loan Loss Allowance” (10-21-09)

“KeyCorp (KEY: 6.28 -3.98%), parent company of Key Bank, recorded a net loss of $438m in Q309, compared to a $48m loss in Q308, as the bank increased its provision for loan losses, write-downs of certain real estate related investments, higher costs associated with other real estate owned (REO) assets, and the write-off of certain intangible assets.”

Housing Wire – “UFA Calls Foreclosure Drop in 2010″ (10-21-09)

“After a 30% climb over the last four years, foreclosures will decline in 2010, according to research from University Financial Associates (UFA), a risk management firm based in Ann Arbor, Mich”

Bloomberg – “Lehman Said to Return to U.S. Mortgages Through Unit” (10-21-09)

“Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., the investment bank brought down by the U.S. mortgage crash after 158 years, is set to return to funding home loans through its Aurora Loan Services unit, people familiar with the matter said.”

Bloomberg – “Bank of America Sells First Republic to Buyout Group” (10-21-09)

“Bank of America Corp., which is raising capital after getting $45 billion in U.S. rescue funds, agreed to sell First Republic Bank to a group led by private- equity-firms General Atlantic LLC and Colony Capital LLC.”

Orange County Register – “Brightwater builder skips more loan payments” (10-21-09)

“California Coastal Communities, the homebuilder that’s developing 356 homes overlooking the Bolsa Chica wetlands, announced that it has missed $759,000 in loan payments due this month, an event that could trigger bankruptcy unless its lenders restructure its debt. It’s the second time this month that the Irvine-based homebuilder said it has missed loan payments. The firm behind the Brightwater development announced three weeks ago that it skipped a $1.7 million debt payment due at the end of September.”

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