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191-TNG Radio – Mike Novak-Smith 9-11-10

Monday, September 13th, 2010

Mike-Novak-Smith

Mike Novak-Smith

REO Agent


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September 17th, 2010, The Norris Group returns with its award winning event I Survived Real Estate 2010. The Norris Group has assembled an incredible line up of industry experts to discuss the state of REO from the inside. Topics will include regulatory intervention and aftermath, bulk buying, myths and facts, and opportunities emerging for real estate professionals. 100 percent of the proceeds support the Orange County affiliate of Susan G. Komen for the Cure. This event would not be possible without generous help from the following platinum partners: Foreclosure Radar and Sean O’Toole, the San Diego Creative Real Estate Investors Association and Bill Tan, Investors Workshops and Shawn Watkins and Angel Bronsgeest, Invest Club for Women and Iris Veneracion and Bobby Alexander, Claudia Buys Houses, The Business Press, Frye Wiles, MVT Productions, and White House Catering.

This week Bruce is joined by Mike Novak-Smith. Mike has been a household name in the REO business since the 90s. He has gained national recognition for his work in the REO industry.

The first REO Mike ever closed was in January of 1991. RT Resolution Trust Corporation was the first REO client he ever had. That company took care of the failed savings and loans assets from the 80s. He thought using that company was a good idea because he sensed a changed in the market at that time. Resolution Trust called and offered him listings that no one else was interested in, and Mike believed he could handle them.

Mike reads a lot and he pays attention to the market. He viewed REOs as a way to survive every month. He knew that if he got 2.5 percent of the deals on the market, then he could make the house and car payment. Once he started doing it, he liked it, because it was more like a business than chasing deals. The audition for the business was hard, but once you have experience, its much less stressful.

There are a few surprises for agents wanting to get into the REO business. First, you have to do a lot of work. Second, you have to put out a lot of money to get properties sold. Third, you get treated rather harshly, because the people you work with are busy and they don’t have time to sugar coat their messages to you. A lot of people can’t wait to be an REO agent, until they become one. You have to be a superior skill level to do REO work in comparison to retail work. It is a very competitive business. If you make a mistake, there are 100 people who want your place.

In the 90s, the peak years for Mike were from 96 to 98. Mike had been in the business for a few years prior to 91 doing retail jobs. All the way through January, 2004, he had a lot of REO deals. From 04 to 05, he did not have any REO deals.

In 2003, Mike closed 110 REO deals. When the REO deals started drying up, Mike was one of the last people his clients were using. When the REO deals came back in 2005, he had 3 REOs within the first month.

Most of the people that Mike knew from the 90s have moved onto bigger things. If they did well during that time period, then they probably moved up to corporate positions.

In the 90s, much of Mike’s inventory consisted of new 4 bedroom, 3 bath houses. Mike gets a lot of new homes as well. He even gets homes that haven’t finished construction.

Currently, Mike’s business is somewhat unpredictable. He might have a several week period where he gets a large number of REO deals, but then the following week he will get zero. This could be a function of the trustee sales changing their bid prices.

The people REO brokers work with do not entirely know the policies of their employees. You hear a lot of rumors, but the only people who really know, are the ones working at the top of the business. Mike occasionally receives calls from corporate leaders in which they ask for his opinion on certain policy changes. Mike does not believe that anyone has complete control over policy changes, because the government makes frequent policy changes as well.

At the peak of this cycle, Mike had over 900 files, and maybe 600 active files in the MLS. Currently, properties spend months in preparation before being listed. Once they are listed, they usually sell fairly quickly.

Properties now require a bit of time before they become vacant. Occupants understand now that they can get money to move out. The magic number for convincing an occupant to move out tends to be between $2,000 to $4,000. Some of these occupants have severe financial problems, but for many of them, its just a game.

The length of time it takes for a property to become an REO after delinquency is 15-18 months. When the property actually goes into foreclosure, the renting tenants are often surprised. Mike advises renters to get their rental property from a broker who manages rentals. Don’t try to just rent a house off of CraigsList. Quite frequently, people will begin renting a house and end up in foreclosure two months later. Bruce was once personally asked by his own potential tenants if he had a loan on the rental house and if it was current. These renters had obviously had this experience in the past.

Most asset managers now communicate through proprietary websites. Offers come in electronically through email. There is not a lot of verbal communication, and fax machines aren’t being used either.

Asset managers have the power to take offers when the asking price is normal, but when an offer is unusual, then the offer must be taken to the next level.

When Mike gets a listing, he often gets the property directly from the lender, but there are also many properties that are outsourced to other companies. Some lenders have received too many REOs for their own labor force, so they have to outsource their work. Outsourcers typically use the same system as the lender.

Mike gets paid back 99 percent of the time if he follows the lenders standards. You cannot do all the work yourself. You must have staff to take on the work load of an REO agent. As an REO broker, you wear many hats, and accountant is one of them.

In 2007, lenders were openly admitting that they would list their properties with the highest broker opinion. Bruce believed that was the perfect system to fail. Lenders have now become more willing to listen to reasonable BPOs, and they often ask for multiple price opinions. Many BPOs today are being performed by inexperienced brokers who will do the work for cheap. Mike thinks this is unwise. When BPOs are done by experienced brokers, the price opinions usually come out fairly similar.

Short sales are becoming more popular right now. Mike closed a couple short sales last year, and he is doing more right now.  He does not prefer short sale deals, because those deals can often take more time than they are worth. Bruce is confounded by the length of time required to do a short sale. Short sales should not take six months to finish. The last short sale Mike finished took six weeks to close. Many short sales involve PMI companies, loan investors, servicers, and possibly an HOA law suit. You have to get all the people involved in the deal to take a loss, and that negotiation takes some time.

There is no compensation for an REO broker until he finishes the short sale. Someone getting into the short sale business could be six months away from a check for every deal they work with. If the broker cannot get someone to help with the paper work, then that short sale is not worth the time.

Mike sees REO levels increasing in 2011. These REOs will come from failed loan modifications and state programs. Short sales will probably increase as well. In the 90s, short sales were very popular, but loan servicers and investors eventually realized that it was easier just to foreclose, because then they could control the process.

Right now, if an inexperience broker attempts to perform a short sale, they often take up to six months to get the deal done. When this happens, the loan servicer will choose to have an REO.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

Thank you for being a Gold Sponsor for I Survived Real Estate 2010: Adrenaline Athletics, Benton Investment Group, Community RE-Invest Group, Delmae Properties, Elite Auctions, Entrust California, Everlast Photography, Inland Empire Investors Forum, Keystone CPA, Landwood Title, Las Brisas Escrow, Leivas Financial Services, Mike Cantu, North San Diego Real Estate Investors Association, Northern California Real Estate Investors Association, Personal Real Estate Investor Magazine, Realty 411 Magazine, San Jose Real Estate Investor Association, Rick and LeeAnne Rossiter, San Jose Real Estate Investor Association, Starz Photography, Summit Solutions, Tony Alvarez, Wealth Point, and Westin South Coast Plaza.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 6/29/10

Tuesday, June 29th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

Standard & Poor claims U.S. home prices rose 0.8 percent in April. According to the MBA, independent mortgage bankers and subsidiaries made an average profit of $1,135 on each loan they originated in 2009.  Congress is still debating over legislation that would eliminate the HVCC in 90 days if passed. The House voted 409-5 to extend the closing deadline for the tax credit to Sept. 30.

In The News:

Los Angeles Times – “Home prices rise in 20 major cities as buyers rush to obtain tax credit” (6-29-10)

“Prices rose 3.8% in April compared with April 2009 and were up 0.8% from March, when the data aren’t adjusted for seasonal fluctuations, according to the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller index of 20 metropolitan areas. California cities continued to appreciate, according to the nonseasonally adjusted index, with Los Angeles and San Diego up 0.7% in April and San Francisco up 2.2%.”

Mortgage Bankers Association – “Production Profits Rebounded in 2009, According to MBA Study of Independent Mortgage Bankers and Subsidiaries” (6-29-10)

“Independent mortgage bankers and subsidiaries made an average profit of $1,135 on each loan they originated in 2009, compared to $305 per loan in 2008, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA)’s Annual 2009 Mortgage Bankers Production Survey released today.”

Housing Wire – “Senator Yanks Financial Reform Support Due to Last Minute Bank Tax Change” (6-29-10)

“Senator Brown sent a letter to sponsors Sen Christopher Dodd (D-CT) and Rep Barney Frank (D-MA) citing the addition of a $19bn bank tax included in the House, but not the Senate versions, as the reason for pulling support. The bill reconciled late last week.”

Housing Wire – “Amendment to Eliminate HVCC Still Alive in Financial Reform Bill” (6-29-10)

“An amendment to the Wall Street Reform Bill that would eliminate the Home Valuation Code of Conduct (HVCC) survived congressional debates last week, according to one representative’s office. A congressional conference last week took place to reconcile both versions of the House and Senate financial reform bills. As it stands now, the HVCC would be eliminated 90 days after the bill is signed.”

Bloomberg - “Volcker Rule May Give Goldman, Citigroup Until 2022 to Comply” (6-29-10)

“Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Citigroup Inc. are among U.S. banks that may have as long as a dozen years to cut stakes in in-house hedge funds and private- equity units under a regulatory revamp agreed to last week. Rules curbing banks’ investments in their own funds would take effect 15 months to two years after a law is passed, according to the bill. Banks would have two years to comply, with the potential for three one-year extensions after that.”

Bloomberg - “U.S. House Extends Closing Deadline for Homebuyer Tax Credit” (6-29-10)

“The U.S. House of Representatives voted to give homebuyers who qualified for a federal tax credit more time to settle on their pending purchases. The House voted 409-5 to extend the deadline for closing home purchases to Sept. 30. The program initially required borrowers who signed contracts before April 30 to complete paperwork by July 1 to get a tax credit of as much as $8,000.”

Orange County Register – “O.C. brokers raking in more cash” (6-29-10)

“Dollars earned by brokers from Orange County home sales jumped 27.3% in May over broker revenues generated the same month a year ago. It was the first May in five years in which broker revenues increased from year-earlier levels, according to new data from the Southern California Multiple Listing Service.”

Orange County Register – “1 in 4 transactions a short sale” (6-29-10)

“Of the 2,778 homes sold through the MLS, 672 or 24.2% of them were so-called ‘short sales.’ By comparison, homes seized by lenders through foreclosure accounted for 13% of all May sales, or one out of every eight. Altogether, ‘distressed sales’ accounted for almost 40% of all homes sold through the MLS in May.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, the House of Representatives passed legislation that required new homes to be built 30 percent more energy efficient than mandated in the 2006 International Energy Conservation Code. The federal regulator for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac claimed that home prices were bottoming.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 1/15/10

Friday, January 15th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

Statistics from 10 primary U.S. cities show that home prices declined by 1 percent. ABA expects economic growth to increase at 3.1 percent through 2010. The U.S. Treasury Department reports that 66,465 permanent modifications were made in December.  Chris Thornberg forecasts that home prices will dip again in 2011.

In The News:

Housing Wire – “JP Morgan Says Sell Mortgage Bonds as Fed Snaps Up Record MBS” (1-15-10)

“The spread of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) bonds yields to Treasuries is tight and likely to remain tight in the near-term, but swap spreads are currently 5-10 bps too narrow to greatly entice private investors, according to a JP Morgan Securities conference call on MBS and asset-backed securities (ABS).While private investors largely hold on the buy side, the government continues to buy up agency MBS as part of its $1.25trn agency MBS-purchase program.”

Housing Wire – “House List Prices Down 1% in December: Altos” (1-15-10)

“Altos Research’s listing price index declined 1% in December and 1.4% during Q409, but for the year, the 10-city composite price index was up 5.2%, the company said, adding it projects asking prices to continue to decline during the winter 2010 months.”

Housing Wire – “ABA Expects Economic Recovery Will Fuel Job Growth in 2010″ (1-15-10)

“High unemployment and constrained consumer spending will keep the speed of recovery in check, but ABA economists indicated real gross domestic product (GDP) will grow at an annualized rate of 3.1% throughout 2010. It’s half the historic rate of GDP growth seen after previous deep recessions, leaving the unemployment rate fairly high – but below 10% – at year-end.”

Housing Wire – “HAMP Servicers Permanently Modify More Than 66,000 Mortgages” (1-15-10)

“Servicers participating in the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) completed 66,465 permanent modifications through December, according to a report from the US Treasury Department. It’s more than double the 31,382 permanent modifications reported through the month of November. More than 40,000 more active modifications need only the borrowers signature to become permanent, totaling 112,521 permanent modifications approved by the servicers.”

Housing Wire – “JP Morgan Posts Q4 Profit Despite Mortgage Losses” (1-15-10)

“JP Morgan said it made approximately 600,000 mortgage modification offers to homeowners and approved 120,000 modifications during 2009.”

Housing Wire – “Treasury Raises Cap on HAMP to $35.5bn” (1-15-10)

“The US Treasury Department raised the total amount of potential capped incentive payments for the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) from $27.7bn to $35.5bn, according to the latest Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) report.”

Bloomberg - “U.S. REITs Poised to Boost Dividends After Raising $33 Billion” (1-15-10)

“A dozen U.S. real estate investment trusts, part of an industry that raised $33 billion last year, likely will increase their next quarterly dividends. Public Storage, Annaly Capital Management Inc., and Inland Real Estate Corp. are among those that may boost payouts, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Vornado Realty Trust said this week it would resume paying its dividend fully in cash after a year of issuing it partially in stock. ”

Inman - “RPR courting MLSs” (1-15-10)

“By promising not to compete with MLSs — and allowing them an opportunity to make a quick exit from RPR if they aren’t satisfied with the results — company executives say they are out to sign up half the nation’s roughly 900 MLSs by the end of the year.”

Orange County Register – “Home sales, prices seen falling in 2011″ (1-15-10)

“Orange County-based homebuilders were told Thursday that the recession may be over, but the future for the economy and the housing industry remains uncertain. As if to underscore that point, economist Chris Thornberg released a forecast projecting that after modest gains this year, home sales and prices will dip again in 2011 because of rising foreclosures and interest rates.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, the NAR announced that sales on homes priced above $750,000 had decreased by nearly 50 percent. The rate for 30-year fixed mortgages dropped below 5 percent. The CBIA claimed that new home sales in California were “glacially slow”. Statistics from the Federal Reserve showed that jobless claims were rising.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 12/21/09

Monday, December 21st, 2009

Today’s News Synopsis:

PMI Insurance Group predicts that 2010 will produce a moderate increase in economic production. According to John Burns Real Estate Consulting, real estate investor activity now exceeds 2005 levels. Moody’s reports that commercial real estate values have decreased by 36 percent from last year. A total of 140 banks have been seized this year.

In The News:

Tennessean - “Glut of shadow properties could hurt housing prices” (12-20-09)

“A supply of 1.7 million homes headed for sale because of foreclosure or delinquency looms over the U.S. housing market, which could dampen progress toward recovery should the Obama administration fail in its efforts to aid struggling homeowners, researchers said.”

Dr. Housing Bubble – “Southern California and the MLS Myth: Why the MLS does not Provide an Accurate Picture of Housing Inventory. Shadow Inventory, Foreclosures, and Fantasy Housing Numbers.” (12-20-09)

“In Southern California last month 20 percent of all buyers went with all cash. Each MLS is geared to local markets but again many argue that the MLS forces membership into the real estate circles.”

San Francisco Chronicle – “Commercial real estate on shaky foundation” (12-20-09)

“while most commercial real estate experts agree that in 2010 there will more loan defaults, scores more bank closures and limited construction lending, many observers do not believe that commercial mortgage defaults will derail the recovery.”

Housing Wire – “Mortgage Insurer Expects Housing Growth in 2010″ (12-21-09)

“PMI Mortgage Insurance Co., of PMI Group (PMI: 2.00 0.00%), does not expect an additional downturn in the US economy in the New Year, and even projects a ‘moderate’ pace of growth in 2010.”

Housing Wire – “Monday Morning Cup of Coffee” (12-21-09)

“According to John Burns Real Estate Consulting, existing home sales volumes are off 30% from the peak and have returned to 1998 levels. Perhaps even more worrying, the research states that existing sales volumes are driven by government initiatives, such as the expanded tax credit, aggressive FHA lending, Freddie and Fannie bailout, and Fed mortgage rate intervention. Additionally, investor activity now exceeds 2005 levels as a percent of total activity.”

Bloomberg - “U.S. Commercial Property Falls to Lowest in 7 Years” (12-21-09)

“Commercial property values in the U.S. declined in October to the lowest level in more than seven years as unemployment reduced demand for apartments, offices and retail space. The Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Indices fell 1.5 percent in October from September to the lowest since August 2002. Prices were down 36 percent from a year ago and are 44 percent below the peak in October 2007, Moody’s Investors Service Inc. said in a statement. ”

DSNews - “Seven New Closures Push 2009 Failures to 140″ (12-21-09)

“The nation’s economic crisis has certainly left its mark on the banking sector this year. These latest institutional seizures push the failed bank tally for 2009 to 140 – an exorbitant increase compared to 25 in 2008, only three in 2007, and none in 2006 and 2005.”

Housing Wire – “More Servicers Bring HAMP List to 99″ (12-21-09)

“The US Treasury Department added 11 new servicers to the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP), pushing the total number of participants to 99, according to the latest Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) transaction report. Under HAMP, the Treasury allocates capped incentives to servicers for the modification of loans on the verge of foreclosure. Currently, the 99 servicers could receive a potential $27.4bn in capped incentives, but the Treasury plans to spend $50bn on the program.”

Inman - “Short sales show steady growth” (12-21-09)

“National bank and thrift servicers completed 22 percent more short sales during the quarter ending Sept. 30 than during the previous three months, and 127 percent more than the same quarter a year ago, federal bank regulators said today.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, California real estate sales decreased by 24 percent within one month. Governor Schwarzenegger rejected an $18 billion proposal for California expense cuts and tax increases. Barney Frank announced plans to release $350 billion from the bank-rescue package. The Federal Reserve bought $308.5 billion in commercial paper and lent $631.8 billion under eight credit programs.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 11/30/09

Monday, November 30th, 2009

Today’s News Synopsis:

Edward Pinto expects 20 percent of FHA’s mortgage loans to default. The Federal Reserve bought $16 billion worth of mortgage-backed securities last week. According to Michael Barr, Over 650,000 mortgage modifications are currently being processed, and over 375,000 borrowers will receive permanent modifications by the end of this year. A survey from Barclay’s shows that as a U.S. citizen’s net worth increases so does the proportion of their wealth invested in real estate.

In The News:

CNBC - “Fannie Mae to Tighten Lending Standards” (11-26-09)

“Fannie Mae plans to raise minimum credit score requirements next month and limit the amount of overall debt that borrowers can carry relative to their incomes”

The Daily Reckoning – “Federal Housing Administration Encourages More Bad Mortgage Loans” (11-26-09)

“An astounding 20 percent of the Federal Housing Administration’s $725 billion portfolio of mortgage loans will go into default as the result of the agency’s recent campaign to subsidize first-time homebuyers with little cash and weak credit. That prediction comes from an industry insider who has seen it all happen before: former chief credit officer of Fannie Mae, Edward Pinto, who recently testified before a House committee on the gathering storm of FHA mortgage defaults.”

Orange County Register – “Banks forced to buy back more loans” (11-26-09)

“Banks had to buy back $7.1 billion in defaulted single-family loans in the third quarter to reimburse mortgage investors, up from $1.9 billion in the previous quarter. Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Call Report information shows that most of the buyback demands fell on JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America. Chase repurchased $2.7 billion in defaulted loans and BoA repurchased $2.3 billion to satisfy investor demands.”

Finance My Money – “FDIC too broke to Takeover Banks? No Bank Failure Friday on Black Friday. Can 5,300 Employees Deal with $5.3 Trillion in Deposits?” (11-30-09)

“The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) was hammered this week when a third quarter report demonstrated that the FDIC was running in the red to the sum of $8.2 billion. This is troubling since the FDIC protects deposits in member banks up to $250,000 and funds covered by the deposit insurance fund (DIF) are over $5.3 trillion, this amount is over one-third of our nationwide GDP. The FDIC as of Q1 of 2009 has 5,381 employees.”

San Francisco Chronicle – “Gov’t increases pressure on mortgage industry” (11-30-09)

“The Treasury Department said Monday it will withhold payments from mortgage companies that aren’t doing enough to make the changes permanent. Officials will monitor the largest of the 71 participating mortgage companies via daily progress reports. The goal is to increase the rate at which troubled home loans are converted into new loans with lower monthly payments. At the end of October, more than 650,000 borrowers, or 20 percent of those eligible, had signed up for trials lasting up to five months.”

Inman – “Non-investors get Fannie REOs first” (11-27-09)

“Fannie Mae has launched a new program that’s intended to give public entities and buyers looking for a home to live in, rather a property to flip, a first crack at homes Fannie has foreclosed on. Under Fannie Mae’s ‘First Look’ initiative, only offers from buyers who intend to be owner occupants and buyers using public funds will be considered during the first 15 days a property is on the market. Offers from investors will be considered only after the first 15 days have passed.”

Housing Wire – “Fed Continues Slower Agency MBS Purchases” (11-30-09)

“The Federal Reserve continued its slower mortgage bond purchases, buying up $16bn of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) from government-sponsored entities in the week ending November 25. The Fed’s purchases shifted more toward Freddie Mac (FRE: 1.03 -6.36%), with $6.5bn of Freddie MBS purchased this week, from $5.9bn last week. The Fed bought $6bn from Fannie Mae (FNM: 0.88 -6.38%), compared with $4.55bn last week. The Fed also bought $3.5bn from Ginnie Mae this week, according to details released by the New York Fed.”

Housing Wire – “FHA Proposes Lenders Maintain $2.5m Net Worth” (11-30-09)

“Federal Housing Administration (FHA)-approved lenders could be required to hold increased net worth, meet stronger approval criteria and be held responsible for the actions of the mortgage brokers they do business with, if a recently proposed FHA rule is enacted. The rule is designed to reduce risks to the single-family insurance fund, which finances the FHA guarantees of mortgages in case of default. The FHA reported to Congress recently the insurance fund dipped below the Congressional-mandated 2% capital reserve threshold.”

Housing Wire – “375,000 HAMP Trials to Go Permanent, Treasury Says” (11-30-09)

“Under HAMP, the Treasury allocates capped incentives to participating servicers for the modification of loans on the verge of foreclosure. According to the latest report, more than 650,000 trials modifications are underway. Saxon Mortgage Services leads all servicers by providing trials to 44% of its eligible portfolio, according to the report. More than 375,000 borrowers are on track for a permanent modification by the end of the year, according to Michael Barr, assistant secretary for financial institutions at the Treasury.”

Bloomberg – “Wealthy Investors Plan to Buy More Real Estate, Barclays Says” (11-30-09)

“Twice as many people plan to raise their investment in commercial and residential property as intend to reduce it, the Barclays Wealth unit said in an e-mailed statement today. The richer the individual, the greater the proportion of wealth is placed in real estate, the survey found.”

Orange County Register – “Irvine home listings drop along with temps” (11-30-09)

“As of last Wednesday, there were 461 active homes for sale in Irvine, with an expected market time of 2.06 months, according to a biweekly report done by Steven Thomas of Altera Real Estate. That’s a benchmark tracking how many months it theoretically takes to sell all the inventory in the local MLS for-sale listings at the current pace of pending deals being made.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, the CIRB reported that the value of non-residential building in 2008 had reached a total of $1.3 billion. Evan Gentry of G8 Capital predicted that Orange County would need another five years before real estate began to appreciate again. New home sales decreased by 18 percent in the West during October of 2008.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 11/13/09

Friday, November 13th, 2009

Today’s News Synopsis:

The FHA told Congress that its cash reserve fund has decreased to $3.6 billion. According to Move.com, the number of consumers displaying interest in purchasing a home has doubled since March of 2009.  Realtors and mortgage brokers are expressing dissatisfaction with HVCC because of its poor use of appraisal management companies.

In The News:

DSNews - “FHA Audit Shows Reserve Funds Below Mandated Limit” (11-13-09)

“The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) told Congress and reporters Thursday that its cash reserve fund has deteriorated to $3.6 billion – the lowest it’s been in the agency’s 75-year history.”

DSNews - “Low-Cost Foreclosures Attract Investors” (11-13-09)

“According to a homeownership survey released Wednesday by Move.com, the number of consumers interested in investing in real estate has doubled since March 2009. The number of buyers planning to purchase a home as an investment property increased to 12.1 percent, compared to 5.6 percent just seven months ago.”

DSNews - “Trade Group Challenges Critics’ Claims of ‘Out-of-Town’ Appraisers” (11-13-09)

“Realtors and mortgage brokers have voiced the most opposition to the HVCC rule, with one of their primary criticisms being that appraisal management companies (AMCs) assign properties to appraisers regardless of their geographic competency, resulting in low-quality and low-ball appraisals that impede home sales.”

Housing Wire – “FDIC Asks Banks for $45Bn of Prepaid Assessments” (11-13-09)

“FDIC expects to collect around $45bn in prepaid assessments, which will strengthen the cash position of the Deposit Insurance Fund at a time when weekly bank failures take substantial hits on the fund. Institutions must prepay their estimated risk-based assessments for Q409 through Q412 along with the assessment for Q309, FDIC said in a financial institution letter. This prepayment, due December 30, will not immediately affect bank earnings, FDIC said, as the industry’s liquid reserve balances totaled more than $1.3trn as of June 30.”

Bloomberg - “Central Plains Recovery to Outpace Rest of U.S., Moody’s Says” (11-13-09)

“Central Plains states and cities are showing signs of recovery sooner than the rest of the U.S., thanks to strong commodities prices, lower unemployment and more stable housing, Moody’s Investors Service said.”

Inman - “MLSCloud.com looms larger” (11-13-09)

“An online network of public-facing multiple listing Web sites, launched six months ago, now features dozens of participating associations and MLSs that together represent about 612,000 Realtors, according to an announcement Thursday, which is more than half of the U.S. Realtor population. MLSCloud.com serves as a consumer portal to its participants’ individual public-facing property-search Web sites, and features a clickable U.S. map to bring consumers to the most relevant sites.”

Orange County Register – “Home prices, sales up in 20 O.C. ZIPs” (11-13-09)

“37 of O.C.’s 83 ZIP codes had gains in their respective median selling price. Overall, prices were +4.8% vs. a year ago. 6 of 83 O.C. ZIPs had median sales prices above $1 million in the period vs. 11 million-dollar ZIPs when the county median price peaked in June 2007.”

Orange County Register – “Best homebuying October in 4 years?” (11-13-09)

“Shoppers bought 3,082 residences — that is +9.2% vs. year-ago buying activity. (From 1997-2006, monthly sales averaged 4,304 per month.) Assuming the month finished at the last reported sale space, this would be the most active October for local homebuying since 2005!”

Realty Times – “Challenges for Sales Professionals” (11-13-09)

“The proper screening of calls by an effective gatekeeper can save hours weekly. Too often, issues, problems, and challenges that could be handled by another penetrate the walls and enter our world. These problems could be minor or major in nature, but granting unfiltered access creates large amounts of lost time for many sales people. There should be a limit in terms of time and people who have access to you. Successful people have a short list of people who have unfiltered access to them. They do not deviate from this short list of people. These people on the short list can interrupt the schedule any hour of the day based on their importance. ”

Realty Times – “Sixteen Ways to Keep Your Seller Happy” (11-13-09)

“1) Notify him as soon as the listing hits the MLS and send him a copy of the listing. 2) Send him links to all your online advertising (Realtor.com, Craigslist, Postlets, your virtual tour, your own blog, etc.). 3) Send him a copy of the home brochure before it goes to print and ask for feedback.”

Looking Back:

Last year, CitiGroup eliminated 50,000 jobs. Goldman Sachs was accused of attempting to make a profit at the expense of their clients by naked short selling. Housing starts were expected to hit a half-century low.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 10/20/09

Tuesday, October 20th, 2009

Today’s News Synopsis:

RealtyTrac’s Rick Sharga believes that approximately 450,000 to 500,000 repossessed properties have not yet been placed on the market. Default notices in California have decreased by 10.3 percent from the previous quarter and have increased by 18.5 percent from last year. The Commerce Department reports that housing and apartment construction increased by .5 percent from last month.

In The News:

RealtyTrac – “The Case of the Missing REO Inventory” (10-20-09)

“With foreclosure activity breaking records nearly every month, where are all the REOs? It’s a fair question. In normal market situations, a bank will repossess a home and usually process it through to a listing agent to put on the MLS within 30 days. In a relatively short period of time, virtually every marketable REO property finds itself listed for sale on the local MLS. Today, that’s simply not the case; it’s likely that between 450,000 and 500,000 properties repossessed over the past year are still not on the market. And with buyers hungry for housing bargains, and agents and brokers champing at the bit ready to sell the properties, it begs for a reasonable answer.”

Broker Universe – “FHA Changes May Make HVCC and AMCs Easier to Swallow” (10-20-09)

“However, Mr. Stern believes appraisal management companies are hiring appraisers based on price – appraisers who have little knowledge of local market conditions. ‘I don’t think it’s fair that AMCs are hiring the cheapest appraisers,’ he said. Lenders One, the National Association of Realtors and appraiser groups are hoping new appraisal policies recently adopted by the Federal Housing Administration will correct some of the problems associated with HVCC and AMCs.”

DQNews - “California Mortgage Defaults Trend Down Again” (10-20-09)

“A total of 111,689 default notices were sent out during the July-through-September period. That was down 10.3 percent from 124,562 for the prior quarter, and up 18.5 percent from 94,240 in third quarter 2008, according to San Diego-based MDA DataQuick”

Cleveland - “Feds to probe ‘walkaways’ by some mortgage lenders” (10-20-09)

” Federal investigators will scrutinize the practice of lenders or mortgage companies walking away from homes they have foreclosed on. The U.S. Government Accountability Office plans to delve into these so-called bank walkaways – something some consider an alarming trend in the foreclosure crisis”

Wall Street Journal – “Home-Buyer Credit Is Focus of Inquiry” (10-20-09)

“The Internal Revenue Service is examining more than 100,000 suspicious claims for the first-time home-buyer tax break, another sign of potential trouble for the soon-to-expire program. The measure, adopted in February as part of the economic-stimulus bill, gives first-time buyers an $8,000 tax credit in an effort to boost sales and stimulate the moribund housing market. The program is set to end Nov. 30, but housing-industry leaders are lobbying Congress to extend it.”

Washington Post – “Small firms, home buyers to get a boost” (10-20-09)

“Under the program, the Treasury, along with mortgage financiers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, will buy the bonds used by housing finance agencies to fund mortgages, which can carry an interest rate that is a percentage point lower than loans made by private lenders. Called HFAs, these agencies have been strapped during the financial crisis because investors have been unwilling to buy their debt. The federal government is now attempting to play the role of the investors.”

Los Angeles Times – “Fewer home-building permits signal weakness ahead” (10-20-09)

“At the same time, the Commerce Department said Tuesday that construction of new homes and apartments rose 0.5 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 590,000 units. That was a weaker showing than the 610,000 economists had expected.”

NAR - “Housing Tax Credit Working, So Keep Momentum Going, NAR Urges Congress” (10-20-09)

“‘The data on the present home buyer tax credit show that the credit has had its intended impact—sales have jumped in recent months to a projected 5.1 million for the year and housing inventory has been trimmed, thus stabilizing home prices noticeably,’ Phipps said. He also pointed out that each home sale generates approximately $63,000 in additional economic activity, providing a tremendous economic boost to the national economy”

Mortgage Bankers Association – “MBA Testifies on State of Housing Market” (10-20-09)

“Whenever I am asked when the housing market will recover, I explain that the economy and the housing market are inextricably linked. The number of people receiving paychecks will drive the demand for houses and apartments and the recovery will begin when unemployment stops rising. Since September 2008, we have lost 5.8 million jobs in the US, more than five times the number the previous year.”

Housing Wire – “Fitch Projects More RMBS Re-Defaults as HAMP Disappoints” (10-20-09)

“Servicers of residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) continue to increase loss mitigation resolutions, including a significant push in the number of loan modifications, according to a report from Fitch Ratings. As of September 2009, roughly 10% of all RMBS loans and 25% of all subprime loans received at least one modification. A year ago, servicers modified only 3% of all loans, and 7% of subprime loans, according to the report.”

Housing Wire – “Servicers Prefer Foreclosure, Says NCLC” (10-20-09)

“Mortgage servicers have found it cheaper to foreclose on homeowners than offer loan modifications, according to a new report from the National Consumer Law Center. The report points out servicers in charge of modifying distressed loans are separate from the lenders, who have packaged the loans and sold them in pieces or pools to other banks and investors.”

Housing Wire – “HUD Notes Alleged FHA Violations at Lend America” (10-20-09)

“The 12 alleged violations the HUD board said Ideal Mortgage Bankers made against FHA range from submitting false certifications and failing to document the borrower’s income and creditworthiness, to approving loans that did not meet the FHA’s minimum credit requirements and closing a loan with an excessive mortgage broker fee paid to an approved FHA loan correspondent.”

Orange County Register – “Investors grab bigger share of auctioned foreclosures” (10-20-09)

“Investors bought 278, or 39%, of the 718 houses and condos sold at auctions, known as trustee’s sales, in Orange County last month, reports ForeclosureRadar.com.”

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 9/28/09

Monday, September 28th, 2009

Today’s news Synopsis:

The Federal Reserve has printed $860 billion in mortgage-backed securities. Under the new U.S. Treasury Department program,  states that provide  mortgages to low-income borrowers may receive up to 35 billion dollars in Federal aid. According to SoCal MLS, distressed sales accounted for 40 percent of all Orange County sales in July.

In The News:

Los Angeles Times – “Don’t bank on your home as an ATM” (9-27-09)

“The economic fundamentals that drove home values up in the 20th century — sustained growth in incomes, population and household wealth — have been sputtering for decades. Though the future isn’t necessarily bleak, economists say there’s no reason Americans should continue to see a home purchase as a path to wealth.”

San Francisco Chronicle – “Be wary of buying into homeowner association” (9-27-09)

“While there are advantages to living in a place where all the owners share the cost of operating and maintaining amenities individual owners couldn’t afford on their own, it’s also true that condo and homeowner associations obligate all members with substantial financial and legal liabilities.”

Los Angeles Times – “Beyond Fannie and Freddie” (9-27-09)

“Homeownership may be the American dream, but lately it has been an expensive one for taxpayers. The deduction for mortgage interest cost about $80 billion in lost revenue in 2009, and a tax credit for home buyers in this year’s stimulus bill will add $15 billion to the tab. Taxpayers have provided Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, two giant, troubled mortgage finance companies, nearly $100 billion that they have little chance of recouping. Mounting defaults also threaten the Federal Housing Administration, the agency that guarantees many home mortgages, raising the odds for yet another multibillion-dollar federal bailout. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has effectively been printing money to reduce mortgage interest rates, using the new dollars to buy more than $860 billion in mortgage-backed securities.”

Bloomberg - “Housing Agencies May Get $35 Billion in Treasury Aid” (9-28-09)

“State housing agencies in the U.S. that provide mortgages to low-income borrowers would get as much as $35 billion in federal aid under a new U.S. Treasury Department program, people familiar with the matter said. The program would provide up to $15 billion in fresh funding for as long as three years and would purchase as much as $20 billion in tax-exempt mortgage bonds issued by state- sponsored housing finance agencies through the end of this year, a person familiar with the matter said. The program may be announced as early as Sept. 30, said the person, who didn’t want to be named because the plans haven’t been made public.”

Bloomberg - “Negative Bond Returns Converge With Mortgage Miracle” (9-28-09)

“Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has some good news for investors: Treasury bondholders will lose money for the first time in 10 years amid an unprecedented decline in the gap between the interest rate on 30-year mortgages and government notes, signaling an end to the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.”

Orange County Register – “Calif. has nation’s highest mortgage burdens” (9-28-09)

“Do we need a Census Bureau survey to tells us how costly it is to own a home in California? Well, the 2008 edition of the American Community Survey does deeply detail California’s steep homeowning costs.”

Orange County Register – “Buying non-foreclosed homes surges in O.C.” (9-28-09)

“But the Southern California Multiple Listing Service estimated that short sales accounted for around 18% of all Orange County resales from February through July. Overall, “distressed” sales (foreclosures and short sales combined) accounted for four out of every 10 sales in July, by SoCal MLS’s math.”

Inman - “Loan shoppers: their own worst enemy?” (9-28-09)

“The proposed new disclosures will be required at the point of application. This is a great idea, if it is properly implemented. Proper implementation means that the information lenders must submit at the point of application will help consumers select from among loan providers. Stated somewhat differently, the information must reveal differences between lenders that will cause borrowers to prefer one over another.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, Citigroup chose to buy Wachovia’s banking business.  Morgan Stanley sold 21 percent of its stock to Japan’s Misubishi UFJ. Permits for new housing construction in Orange County dropped by 94 percent in one month.

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124-TNG Radio – Elite Auctions 5-30-09

Friday, May 29th, 2009

elite-auctions

Elite Auctions

Randy Grigg and Mike Grigg

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This week, Bruce is joined again by Randy and Mike Grigg who head Elite Auctions. Randy Grigg is President of Elite Auctions and Mike Grigg is the Chief Auctioneer.

Last week, Bruce, Randy, and Mike discussed a Riverside auction in which a man bought a home out of the MLS. Because of the price deterioration in the market, Bruce said that the man should flip the property via auction. In the end, the buyer earned a large profit after the property sold. Bruce asks about the costs to market.

Randy and Mike Grigg discuss marketing and advertising and what the auction company does to attract attention. They are also able to show all their results to their clients, so that they know where their money is being spent. Bruce asks Mike and Randy how many people showed up to a particular open house they had. They had approximately 60 to 80 people come in to view their property. They typically have a successful auction when there are that many people attending their open house.

Whenever someone attends one of their auctions, they always ask the attendees how they heard about their auction. Only about 30 percent of their attendees go to the open house. In this case, the winning bidder did not go to the open house. The winning bidder owned rental properties in that same area, and he was attracted to the property from a post card advertisement. Altogether, 38 bidders showed up at the auction, and they all had $5,000 dollar cashiers checks. The home being sold needed paint, carpet, and the kitchen was in bad shape. Just down the street from their auction, REDC was selling similar inventory for $98,000. The final sale price for this house was $147,400. The investor bought the home for $75,000. What a fantastic deal. They closed the property in 12 days.

Bruce goes on to discuss what people consider to be a “deal”. Bruce believes that if that buyer owned homes in that same neighborhood then he might have paid more for every house that he owns than that particular one. People are used to thinking that real estate is so cheap, that they have forgotten that real estate used to be 2 or 3 times the current price. Sarah, Bruce’s daughter, bought a house very recently. From Bruce’s perspective, her deal was the interest rate she received. The market was at 5%. The man who bought this property knew the area he was buying in, so the purchase worked well for him.

Auctioning properties is challenging right now, because buyers are very cautious. In a market where prices are escalating quickly, the auctioneer will be ahead of the prices in the MLS. The consumers prove how much the auctioned property is worth when there is competition. Bruce believes that his properties in Rosamond would have sold better if they had been auctioned. Bruce is surprised builders don’t use this method instead.

Bruce asks what Mike’s duties are as the president of the California Auction Association. Mike’s main duty is following California government legislation in regards to real estate auctions. He also assists other auctioneers by showing them what they need to do to be a legitimate auctioneer. Mike arranges conferences where speakers come and talk about their specialties. The main goal is to better California’s auctioneers, so that they can offer better service to their clients.

Bruce asks Mike if there are California rules that trump national rules and vice versa. Mike says that auctioning rules vary greatly state to state, and that California is actually very lenient. Mike would like to see more legislation to stop people from holding deposits for lengthy amounts of time after the bid is rejected from the lender. Bidding on behalf of auctioneers is also something that needs to be addressed by legislation. Instead of an auctioneer having to be licensed like a realtor, there should be a separate real estate auction test. It’s very different.

Bruce asks Mike what C.A.R. thinks of real estate auctioning. Mike does not think that C.A.R. views auctions as a bad thing. There are some Realtors that view auctions as a threat to their business, but it is not . Mike and Randy pay Realtors if they bring in buyers and sellers.

Approximately 10 percent of the time a Realtor represents a client for his auctions. Occasionally, Realtors get confused by the process because they are not used to that method, but Mike does not feel that this has affected his ability to close a deal.

In the United States people have viewed auctioning as a necessary evil. Bruce asks Mike if he thinks that auctioning will have a strong foot hold in the real estate business in the future. Mike thinks that auctioning will become more important for real estate sales in the future. California seems to be far behind the rest of the United States in regards to understanding the value in auction sales.

Bruce believes that the key going forward is to have repetitive clients. If investors get the idea that they can efficiently sell houses in auctions then it would be constantly viewed by retail people as a respectable selling method. Mike believes that as the real estate market returns many of the big auction houses will go back to land auctions, but Mike and Randy’s business will stay as a local California business.

Bruce asks Randy what kind of perception change has taken place in the auction industry. Randy thinks that much of the public still view auctions as a fire sale, but many investors believe that it is an effective way to sale inventory. It depends on who you talk to.

Bruce discusses how variable the results can be when selling properties through auctions. The right person for the sale may or may not be attending. Often the problem with auction sales lies within the seller’s expectations. When people own properties, which they have assigned a feeling of value to, it can distort one’s perception of whether or not a property is being sold at the right price. Randy believes that houses sold through auctions are priced properly about 80 to 90 percent of the time.

Bruce asks Mike how different it is to auction real estate in comparison to other auctions. In real estate you do not get paid immediately. You have to go through escrow, and you have to understand how to deal with Realtors. An antique seller is not going to understand real estate, just as a real estate auctioneer will not understand antiques. In the rest of the auctioneer industry, you usually get paid immediately after the sale. Online auctions are also much different than the on site real estate auctions that Mike and Randy handle.

The number for Elite Auction is 661-325-6500, and their website is www.sellwithauction.com

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104-TNG Radio – Rick Solis 1-10-09

Friday, January 9th, 2009

Rick Solis

Appraiser and Investor

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Bruce Norris is joined this week by appraiser and investor, Rick Solis.

Rick has been appraising properties since 1989. Rick says it was a perfect time to start because he got to see both cycles. In 1989, you didn’t even need a license. Education, Rick says, has not improved appraisals. Bruce talks about how he got his appraisers license and why. They both say much of the business is street smarts.

Rick got into the business because he purchased a Dave Delgado seminar. He started buying a lot of houses. He realized he needed to know how to evaluate properties.

Bruce asks if appraisers are under pressure to come in at a certain number. Rick says pressure is coming from several sources including agents, buyers, sellers, and banks. From 2004-2006 the pressure was for the appraisers to come in high. Today, banks put appraiser reports through many more hoops. They are looking for something wrong with it and they have review appraisals done. They also use an automated valuation model (AVM) to check numbers. In a down market, the AVM is not an issue. It’s a real problem in an up market. Everyone is just being much more conservative.

Bruce asks Rick how he compares this downturn from the 90s. Rick says this downturn is much worse. There was a more gradual decline over several years in the 90s. Prices are much more erratic in the current market and it varies from month to month.

Rick says areas with lots of new houses, where there are lots of first-time homebuyer inventory, and far out areas seem to have gotten pummeled. Sometimes 60% of the value disappeared. Rick tries to turn down appraisals for irregular products (dirt roads, manufactured homes, etc). It’s very difficult to find comps and arrive at a number.

Rick says in 2009 he expects to see drops in pricing every month for the Inland Empire. Rick says in his area in LA, sales seem to have dropped by 75%. Prices are still coming down there too. Bruce asks Rick what percentage of sales in Victorville were REO. Bruce says 92% of all sales in the area were REO. Reselling in that area would be very difficult. It would be very difficult to get an appraisal too. When 98% are vacant and need work and almost all sales are REO, it’s very difficult to get comps to substantiate a higher price.

Bruce asks what Rick is running into when working with investors. Rick says too many investors are going off the sales price in the MLS. The numbers are incorrect at times because of bad data entry or concessions. Some of the busy REO agents are having assistants enter in the data and they aren’t being careful.

Rick says he uses the MLS but confirms those prices with public record. He uses Real Quest and Dataquick to make sure his numbers are correct. Luckily, data is getting a little better and more complete.

Rick says listings aren’t so much calculated into his appraisals but he does spend more time on pending sales.

Bruce asks if the goal for appraising properties for an investor is different then doing to for retail buyers. Rick says working with buyers is different because the buyer is dictating the price. It becomes its own comp. The investor purchase is more difficult.

Tune in next week as the conversation continue.

Rick is the senior appraiser at Ace Appraisals. Rick has been a full time real estate appraiser since 1989 and a HUD approved appraiser since 1993. He has extensive investor and appraisal experience in residential real estate in the Los Angeles, San Bernardino, Riverside, and Orange County areas.

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