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California Real Estate Headline Roundup

Posts Tagged ‘market value’

197-TNG Radio – I Survived Real Estate 2010 10-23-10

Friday, October 22nd, 2010

I Survived Real Estate 2010

I Survived Real Estate 2010


 

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September 17th, 2010, The Norris Group returns with its award winning event I Survived Real Estate 2010. The video also now available on The Norris Group website.

The Norris Group has assembled an incredible line up of industry experts to discuss the state of REO from the inside. Topics will include regulatory intervention and aftermath, bulk buying, myths and facts, and opportunities emerging for real estate professionals. 100 percent of the proceeds support the Orange County affiliate of Susan G. Komen for the Cure. This event would not be possible without generous help from the following platinum partners: Foreclosure Radar and Sean O’Toole, the San Diego Creative Real Estate Investors Association and Bill Tan, Investors Workshops and Shawn Watkins and Angel Bronsgeest, Invest Club for Women and Iris Veneracion and Bobby Alexander, Claudia Buys Houses, The Business Press, Frye Wiles, MVT Productions, and White House Catering.

This week The Norris Group Real Estate Radio Show is broadcasting I Survived Real Estate 2010.

Investors buy about 1/3 of Freddie Mac’s properties. Freddie Mac does not offer financing for most of those investor purchases, but Fannie Mae does. Fannie Mae has a program called Home Path. Many investors can qualify for Home Path financing on rehab properties. The financing on the rehab program includes the cost of repair. It is somewhat similar to the 203K loan. The problem Bruce has experienced with these programs is they don’t offer enough financing to significantly help investors. Bruce is usually only offered about $4,000 for rehab financing.

It is hard to pull a pool of properties together in a way that is just as attractive for an investor as finding one good property.

Inventory levels are increasing. Freddie Mac started this year with 45,000 properties in inventory, but today we have about 70,000. 55% of those properties are in the redemption, eviction and prelist phase. That phase is taking longer now. Approximately 55% of Freddie’s properties are becoming occupied. Freddie has about 15,000 homes on the market, and the rest are in the closing process.

As inventory levels increase, and as the 90-day strategies fail, then Freddie might move to a ballroom or online auction. However, if a property has had sale fallouts or could use significant improvement, then it may be relisted. Freddie’s goal is to figure out what selling strategy will have the best recovery rate. On day 75 of the listing, Freddie gives the broker a two week notice, and then moves onto the auction process.

Fannie Mae has a web-based portal for investors who desire to qualify for bulk purchases. You must provide information about yourself, provide your tax I.D. number, and allow Fannie Mae to do a background check on you. Once you qualify, you are given access to the web-based portal. This portal contains listings of properties, and it allows investors to submit a bid. This portal is for the larger pools. The properties in the pool are located across the country.

Bruce believes that tax payers could be saved a lot of money if properties were sold to investors rather than being given to NSP programs. Sarah Letts suggests that those investors go to the auctions.

In the last 12 month, Fannie Mae sold 30,000 properties to owner occupants during the first look period, and 5,000 properties to people using NSP funds.

Tommy Williams was the person who suggested that Bruce should read The World Is Flat. One of the most significant quotes in the book says, “No institution will go through fundamental changes, unless it believes it is in deep trouble and must do something different to survive.” Tommy believes that no other country in the world provides us with the same amount of opportunity as the free enterprise system of the U.S. That opportunity is built upon the initiative of the individual. We need to focus on turning that individual initiative loose. When you restrict individuals from making free market decisions, there are greater repercussions.

Tommy believes in the auction process. The stock market is like an auction, and everybody agrees with that auction every day. What if tomorrow morning, the DOW Jones said, “If Microsoft doesn’t bring us 25 dollars, we won’t sell”? It wouldn’t work. This is the problem we are dealing with in our current housing problem. Three years ago, the market told us that we had to rethink what houses were worth. Unfortunately, we have found out how accurate the market was worth. Tommy Williams believes that Sean O’Toole’s estimates are accurate, but he wises it wasn’t true. Tommy believes we have a long road ahead of us before we reach real market value. The quicker we get to that value, the better.

“Unfortunately, it has been too long since America had a leader ready to call on our nation to do something hard. To give something up, not to get something more, and to sacrifice for a great national cause for the future, rather than live for today.” – The World Is Flat

Tommy believes that if a politician actually had the courage to stand up and tell America the truth, the citizens would elect that person instantly. Unfortunately, we have been given so much bs that we aren’t accustomed to politicians being honest.

A crisis is a terrible thing to waste. We’ve had two in the last decade – 9/11 and the current financial crisis. Bruce has been to baseball games where everyone stood up after the 9/11 crisis. When we have a crisis, we can make changes, but we have to have someone that we can support in the government.

Thornberg is worried about where our fiscal debt is going. We are borrowing $1.3 trillion this year. We do not currently have that much debt, because most of it is in social security. Our net debt represents about 50% of the economy right now. That seems high, but Christopher doesn’t believe that is actually extremely high. However, if you are borrowing $1.3 trillion per year, that debt percentage will quickly turn into a number over 95%. Unlike Japan, we are a nation relying on external capital. If we keep borrowing, there will come a time where the world bond market will say “enough is enough”.

Thornberg does not believe that household, and local debt is that bad. We do not have that big of a debt problem. Our pensions are in trouble, but other than that, Christopher thinks we are fine. Consumer debt spiked in proportion to asset values. It also fell significantly when the asset bubble popped, and Americans realized they had too much debt. Most of American debt is in mortgage debt from Fannie and Freddie. Non-mortgage debt didn’t really rise at all. Overall, that debt is not too significant.

Stock investments have nothing to do with GDP. When we spend stock profits, that money does not get counted into GDP. When you pay taxes on your stock portfolio, those taxes are recorded in GDP statistics, but then they have to subtract your capital gains income from the total.

Thornberg is worried about where our fiscal debt is going, but he is not sure at what point he would say “enough is enough”. We’ve never had an unmanageable amount of debt, but we’ve also never had a government that is so unwilling to acknowledge the reality of our problem. The government claims it wants to fix the deficit, but it won’t raise taxes. Thornberg is a proponent of paying taxes, and he thinks all the Bush tax cuts should be taken out. He doesn’t enjoy paying taxes, but if the citizens of the U.S. actually have to pay, then we will finally stop the government from spending it. We have developed the delusion that the Federal debt is not our debt. If the government is borrowing $1.3 trillion dollars, a lot of that money will come from the citizens. It would take $4,500 from every citizen to pay that debt.

Thornberg does not believe that deleveraging is deflationary, because leveraging is not inflationary. In the middle of the leveraging binge, Alan Greenspan was worried about deflation. When you pay debt off instead of spend, you can decrease demand somewhat. Reducing demand can reduce the velocity of money, which can cause deflationary pressure. That is why Greenspan went through quantitative easing, and he did a pretty good job.

If you have a willing buyer and seller that come to a fair price together, then you have market value. That definition of market value will never be able to stop a real estate bubble. The Norris Group built homes in Rosamond. In Rosamond, the market should have been $150,000, but Bruce was selling those homes for $280,000. In the commercial world, the appraisal has multiple pieces. You have to calculate for comps, cost of building and income generated. Bruce asks Joseph Magdziarz if he thinks we should change the structure of how we come to the proper value. Joseph believes the definition does need to be looked at. During the boom, California prices escalated quickly, but rental prices didn’t change much. So prices changed a lot, but the underlying value didn’t. Unfortunately, the government created too much artificial demand in the market, and that helped cause the market. We created programs for people who couldn’t afford a home.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

Thank you for being a Gold Sponsor for I Survived Real Estate 2010: Adrenaline Athletics, Benton Investment Group, Community RE-Invest Group, Delmae Properties, Elite Auctions, Entrust California, Everlast Photography, Inland Empire Investors Forum, Keystone CPA, Landwood Title, Las Brisas Escrow, Leivas Financial Services, Mike Cantu, North San Diego Real Estate Investors Association, Northern California Real Estate Investors Association, Personal Real Estate Investor Magazine, Realty 411 Magazine, San Jose Real Estate Investor Association, Rick and LeeAnne Rossiter, San Jose Real Estate Investor Association, Starz Photography, Summit Solutions, Tony Alvarez, Wealth Point, and Westin South Coast Plaza.

188-TNG Radio – Joseph Magdziarz 8-21-10

Friday, August 20th, 2010

Joseph Magdziarz

2011 President,
The Appraisal Institute


(Full Bio)

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This week Bruce is joined by Joseph Magdziarz. He is the current Vice President of the Appraisal Institute and he will become the President Elect in 2010 and President in 2011. He has been associated with the Appraisal Institute for 38 years.

Bruce begins by asking if Joseph if he considers business nowadays to be usual or unusual. Joseph has seen similar conditions in the late 80s and early 90s, but for many people, this is a new experience.

Bruce asks Joseph to explain what is similar about our current market and the market of the late 80s. The declining prices of real estate but the cause of these declines is significantly different.

Something radically changed a few months ago in the appraisal business. The Home Valuation Code of Conduct (HVCC) agreement between the Attorney General Cuomo and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac caused this change. A few years before the HVCC came out, Joseph was lobbying with Congress about the pressure being put on appraisers to make inflated home appraisals. People were happy with many appraisers, because they received high appraisals, but this problem put ethical appraisers out of business, because they would not cooperate with people who wanted their home values inflated. Some of the new people coming into the business may have given into the pressure to make bad appraisals because they did not have the established relationships with lenders that some of the well known appraisers had.

The goal number for an appraiser is market value. Bruce asks if that is still the goal that appraisers are shooting for. Joseph says that is what appraisers are trying to estimate but some of the values coming out are closer to distressed asset value rather than market value.

Bruce asks if something has changed in the appraising process or if the changes are coming in after the appraiser states a market value and someone attempts to correct them. The definition of market value has not changed since 1989. The methodology has not changed either. Joseph thinks that many appraisers have not experienced a distressed market such as the market we are currently in. The HVCC, and the lenders’ choice to move much of their business to appraisal management companies, have caused a lot of problems.

This is one of the first markets we have had in 10 years in which we have declining prices. It is legitimate to have a 90 day old comp that is worth less today than it was when you first got it. Bruce asks if the big problem is that we do not have enough fully repaired homes as comps in comparison to vacant REOs. Jospeh says it’s very localized. Joseph says this is a big problem in some parts of the country, but the real problem occurs when all the occurring sales are foreclosures and short sales.

The definition of market value is the meeting of the minds between a buyer and a seller, each equally motivated and knowledgeable, and without undue pressure. If you have a bank with many foreclosures, they are more motivated than a typical seller would be. They will often dispose of those assets at a lower price which makes none of those properties a valid comp. The motivation of the buyer and seller is important when evaluating market value.

TNG’s business is buying and fixing properties that need work. TNG typically puts $35,000 dollars into a repair job, and they typically end up with a property that is worth about $140,000. It is very hard to get $35 grand worth of credit. There seems to be a rule which only allows a ten percent credit limit for the kind of properties that TNG deals with. Bruce asks Joseph to explain this issue. Joseph explains that this issue relates back to a Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac guideline that says when you have an adjustment greater than 10 percent, you need to explain it. As the percent of adjustment increases, the sale becomes less comparable. There is no ten percent requirement. This is just a guideline, but unfortunately, some of the underwriters believe it to be a rule.

Bruce has had trouble with this guideline. For example, Bruce had 6 offers on a property being sold at 122,000, but then the appraisal came at 102,000, and then the review appraisal came in at 85,000. That is far from what 6 buyers thought the market value was. In the end, Bruce did not sell this property and he kept it as a rental home. If an appraiser is not able to honor the market decision of a buyer, then the market price in some areas will go down further for no good reason. Part of this problem goes back to the HVCC stating that there needs to be a firewall between people originating a loan and people doing appraisals. At this time, that firewall is the appraisal management company. One of the main complaints that Joseph is getting is that many appraisals are being done by appraisers who are not experienced enough in their geographic region.

Bruce asks how appraisers are assigned properties to appraise. Some companies broadcast assignments to everyone on their approved list, so the first person to sign up for the job gets it. The problem with the AMC is that they are not giving these jobs to experienced appraisers. The AMC is focused on getting these jobs done quickly rather than effectively. Better appraisers are missing out on jobs because they cost more. They are hiring people with not enough experience.

The Appraiser’s Institute company has 26,000 members. Each one of these members receives notifications saying that they need to have the proper experience necessary to get jobs done properly, otherwise the Appraisers Institute will take aggressive enforcement against any member who accepts a job that they are not qualified for. These members are also given information on how to turn in unqualified appraisers.

In July, the current president of the Appraisal Institute met with Congress to discuss this issue. He also reminded them a few years before that these problems were occurring, and they failed to act on those problems back then. These problems do not look like they will be dealt with until some time next year. A few bill are pending but nothing will be done until next year.

Bruce asks if the Appraisal Management Companies has to be run by someone with an appraisal background. This is a problem that the Appraisal Institute has been lobbying for as well. There are appraisers who have had their licenses revoked that are now supervising other appraisers. Joseph thinks it would be better if appraisers were required to be licensed within their state.

Bruce asks if communication is allowed between agents and appraisers who are working for Fannie or Freddie. Joseph says this is not forbidden. The loan officer is not allowed to communicate with the appraiser, but Realtors and management companies can communicate with appraisers. Appraisers have an obligation to verify information given to them about a sale. This is a misunderstood rule that Bruce has had difficulty with. Bruce has called appraisers who told him that he was not allowed to talk to them.

Bruce asks Joseph about what the fee was for an appraiser before HVCC and what that fee is now. This is one of the five biggest problems that the Appraisals Institute currently has. Not all appraisal management companies are the same. In Chicago, GAMCO uses Appraisal Institute members, and they give designated members 90 percent of the fee, and they give non designated members 80 percent of the fee. What Joseph has heard nowadays is that management companies are starting to take 50 to 60 percent of the fees. When that happens, the better appraisers refuse to work for those companies. That leaves the new appraisers with the ability to get into the business, and they may not be qualified. Joseph fears that these rules may cause some very knowledgeable people leaving the business. Another problem with management companies is that they require a 24 to 48 hour turn around time. This does not allow appraisers to get to know the market value of a specific market.

We now have the ability to use automated appraisals (AVM), but these automated appraisals are trumping appraisals made by actual appraisers. These automated appraisals are done on a statistical basis. The problem with these reports is that they do not use comparable sales. These automated appraisals essentially come up with a median value rather than a market value. These mechanical appraisers are not capable of looking next door to a certain property in order to obtain a better understanding of the value of the home being examined.

Joseph is can be seen September 11th at our I Survived Real Estate 2009 event.

Joseph C. Magdziarz, MAI, SRA is the 2009 vice president of the Appraisal Institute. He will become the president elect in 2010 and president of the Appraisal Institute in 2011.

Magdziarz has been an active member of the Appraisal Institute for 38 years. He has served in a variety of capacities at all levels of the organization.

At the regional level, Magdziarz has served two terms as Regional Vice Chair and two terms as Region III Chair. He has also been a regional representative for many years. On the national level, Magdziarz served two terms on the Appraisal Institute’s National Board of Directors. He has served as Chair of the Education Committee for five years and has also chaired the National Audit Committee, Instructor and Faculty Committees, and Education and Publications Committees. In addition, he has served on a number of project teams. Presently, he is serving on the ADAPT (MAI demonstration report alternative) project team and the International Education and Designation project team.

Magdziarz has been President of Appraisal Research, Inc. in Rockford, Illinois for 38 years. He resides in Rockford, Illinois with his wife Sandra of 41 years and his bulldog Bella.

Magdziarz is an approved Appraisal Institute instructor for 26 courses in the Appraisal Institute’s QE, AE, CE, and USPAP curriculums. He has also had international assignments in Naples, Italy; Istanbul, Turkey; Seoul, South Korea; and Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai, China.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.