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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 8/20/10

Sunday, August 22nd, 2010

Video Blog Sources:

Mortgage News Daily – “Mortgage Rates End Losing Streak After Reprices for Better” (8-19-10)

Wall Street Jounral –  “Redfin: Less Than Half of All Home-Sale Attempts Successful in ‘09” (8-16-10)

Housing Wire – “Bankrate: Loan Closing Costs Jump 36.6% Year-Over-Year” (8-17-10)

Housing Wire – “TransUnion: Housing Begins to Stabilize as Delinquent Loans Fall in Q210” (8-17-10)

DQ News – “Southern California Home Sales and Median Price Dip in July” (8-17-10)

Wall Street Journal – “Mortgage Delinquency Runs Slightly Higher in Dems’ Districts″ (8-19-10)

Today’s News Synopsis:

MDA Dataquick’s monthly study shows 6,773 new and resale homes closed escrows in Northern California last month. In the entire state, 35,202 new and resale houses and condos were sold. The California State Assembly approved SB 1178, which will extend anti-deficiency protection for consumers who have refinanced their original mortgage loans. The Census Bureau reports the number of people who own their homes free and clear has decreased, and the number of people in reverse mortgages increased 59 percent.

In The News:

Los Angeles Times – “Professional investors move into flipping foreclosed homes” (8-20-10)

“Hoping there are big profits to be made in the aftermath of California’s housing collapse, professional investors are flocking to the business of buying foreclosed homes at distressed prices. The investors, primarily private equity funds and groups of wealthy individuals, purchase the homes at public auctions, which are held daily on the steps of local courthouses. They refurbish the properties and try to sell them for quick profits.”

DQNews - “Bay Area July Home Sales Down Sharply; Median Price Slips From June” (8-19-10)

“Last month a total of 6,773 new and resale homes closed escrows in the nine-county Bay Area, down 19.1 percent from 8,373 in June and down 22.8 percent from 8,771 in July 2009, according to MDA DataQuick of San Diego.”

DQNews - “California July Home Sales” (8-19-10)

“An estimated 35,202 new and resale houses and condos were sold statewide last month. That was down 19.9 percent from 43,964 in June, and down 21.9 percent from 45,079 for July 2009. California sales for the month of July have varied from a low of 30,596 in 1995 to a peak of 71,186 in 2004, the average is 47,093. MDA DataQuick’s statistics go back to 1988.”

CBIA - “California Housing Affordability Declines in Second Quarter, CBIA Announces” (8-19-10)

“On a statewide basis, the HOI found that a family earning the median income could have afforded 58.4 percent of the new and existing homes that were sold during the second quarter, down from 60.8 percent in the first quarter.”

CAR - “California State Assembly passes SB 1178 protecting homeowners” (8-19-10)

“The California State Assembly today approved SB 1178 (D-Corbett) by a 49 to 14 vote, extending anti-deficiency protection for consumers who have refinanced their original mortgage loans and now are facing foreclosure. The CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) is the sponsor of the consumer-protection legislation.”

Housing Wire - “Commercial Real Estate Hit with 41% Price Drop, Soaring Delinquencies” (8-20-10)

“National property prices on commercial real estate dropped 9.1% in June from last year, according to Moody’s commercial property price index. The rate declined 0.9% over the first half of 2010, and while prices remain 4.2% above the current recession low of October, they are down 41.4% from the peak in October 2007.”

Housing Wire – “Census Bureau Reports 59% Rise in Reverse Mortgages as Overall Ownership Falls” (8-20-10)

“The nation’s homeowners paid a median of $1,000 in monthly housing costs in 2009, while renters paid a median of $808 per month, according to the 2009 American Housing Survey released Thursday by the US Census Bureau and the US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). Compared to 2007, the number of homeowners that owned their home free and clear decreased 1.3% to 24.2m in 2009 from 24.9m. The amount of regular and home-equity mortgages increased 1.4% to 50.3m from 48.7 in 2007. Reverse mortgages increased 59% to 252,000 from 159,000 while line of credit options decreased to 1.7m from 1.8m.”

Housing Wire – “REO Listing Agents – The Helping Hand That Isn’t Always There” (8-20-10)

“In some cases, interested buyers have been ignored (as documented in ’secret shopper’ campaigns). This is not to suggest that all or even most of the REO listing agents are doing a poor job, it is to suggest that as volume levels to some agents has increased there may be a direct correlation to declining service levels that should be understood.”

Inman - “Don’t buy Fannie-Freddie ‘Big Lie’” (8-20-10)

“While the Fed and the Obama administration insist that recovery is moving forward, the pattern of inbound data produces the same, queasy sensation as their denial in the fall of 2007 and the summer of 2008. New unemployment insurance claims hit a one-year high, to 500,000 last week. There was no dramatic spike, just steady deterioration. The Philadelphia Fed index yesterday stunned the remaining optimists: Expected to rise from a weak 5.1 in June, it fell to negative 7.7, weakest in new-order and employment components.”

Inman - “Mortgage rates go lower” (8-20-10)

“Rates on fixed-rate mortgages tracked by Freddie Mac hit new lows this week, with 30-year fixed-rate loans averaging 4.42 percent with an average of 0.7 point. That’s down from 4.44 percent last week and 5.12 percent at the same time a year ago, and is a new low in records dating to 1971.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, the delinquency rate for residential mortgages increased to 9.24%. A home buyer survey showed that 70% of women made up their mind to buy the day they first saw a home for sale, vs. 62% of men. 55% of women place more importance on living closer to extended family than to their job; only 37% of men felt the same way.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor event calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 8/13/10

Friday, August 13th, 2010

 

 

Video Blog Sources:

ABC News – “Housing Summit May Yield Fannie and Freddie Clues” (8-12-10) To air on  Treasury website Tuesday.

Sacramento Bee –  “Californias’ Income Falls For First Time Since WWII” (8-11-10)

Los Angeles Times – “Fed to resume buying Treasury bonds” (8-11-10)

Foreclosure Radar Report – www.foreclosureradar.com

Inman – “FHA premium changes pushed to Oct. 4″ (8-12-10) 

Today’s News Synopsis:

Equity from the boom has now disappeared and many homeowners are deciding not to pay what they owe. Builders are shrinking the size of new projects as fewer consumers want McMansions. Moody’s sees increasing weakness in the commercial market and the U.S. government appears not to be sure how to move forward to avoid the much talked about double dip recession.

In The News:

New York Times - “Debts Rise, and Go Unpaid, as Bust Erodes Home Equity” (8-11-10)

“During the great housing boom, homeowners nationwide borrowed a trillion dollars from banks, using the soaring value of their houses as security. Now the money has been spent and struggling borrowers are unable or unwilling to pay it back.”

RisMedia - “Builders Shrink Homes to Fit Buyers’ Newly Modest Tastes” (8-13-10)

“I do believe the younger generation isn’t looking to build mansions anymore,” Palazzolo said. “They are looking at simpler lives. They aren’t looking for the same houses that the baby boomers were.”

AP - “Homes lost to foreclosure up 6 pct from last year” (8-12-10)

“The number of U.S. homes lost to foreclosure surged in July, another sign lenders are moving quicker to take back properties from homeowners behind in payments. Lenders repossessed 92,858 properties last month, up 9 percent from June and an increase of 6 percent from July 2009, foreclosure listing firm RealtyTrac Inc. said Thursday.”

Market Watch - “Monetary policy in a time of deleveraging” (8-11-10)

“The U.S. economy is on the edge of the cliff, threatening to plunge back into ruinous recession, but the worst part is that Washington won’t do anything to stop it. ”

Bloomberg - “Related News:Opinion · Insurance · Retail .U.S. Is Bankrupt and We Don’t Even Know It: Laurence Kotlikoff” (8-10-10)

“Let’s get real. The U.S. is bankrupt. Neither spending more nor taxing less will help the country pay its bills.”

Housing Wire – “Fifth Third Converts 70% of HAMP Trials to Permanent Status” (8-13-10)

“Fifth Third Mortgage Co., the mortgage unit of Fifth Third Bancorp, so far converted 70% of its trial Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) plans into permanent modifications.”

Housing Wire – “Moody’s Sees CMBS Delinquency Poised to Rise 9%-11% in 12 Months” (8-13-10)

“Moody’s Investors Service expects the share of commercial mortgage-backed securities loans that are delinquent or in special servicing to continue to rise over the next year. Analysts expect delinquencies to increase by 9% to 11% during the next 12 months with loans in special servicing climbing to about 20%, which would be up from the current 11.3% and 5% a year ago.”

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

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183-TNG Radio – Tony Alvarez 7-17-10

Friday, July 16th, 2010

Tony-Alvarez

Tony Alvarez

Author and Investor

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This week Bruce is joined by Tony Alvarez. Tony is a successful investor. He now lectures inside and outside California. Tony is the author of Breaking Into The REO Business. How I Went From Bankruptcy to $7.2 Million in 7 Years While Making Friends.

After the Multi-Millionaire event, Tony spent five years writing his book. Some self proclaimed real estate educators are using things like infomercials to rip people off. Tony was speaking in Vegas some time ago, and while he was there, he heard a story from a young man who spent $40,000 on real estate classes. When this young man was later sent the list of all the classes he paid for, he realized that they were taking place in different states, and he had no way to pay for the traveling expenses. Tony has met many people who are paying large sums of money to learn about real estate, and many of them are being scammed.

You do not need to pay $15,000 to learn how to buy a house. Tony’s book is 25 dollars. You can check out Tony and his website at www.tonyalvarez.com. Tony put a lot of effort into writing this book, and if you can get past the first 10 pages of his book without understanding that he really wants to help you, then you are missing the point. Tony only teaches about what he knows, and Tony knows all about the REO business. 95 percent of the houses he has bought were been bought using REO agents.

The third section of Tony’s book is called “14 distinctions for the lazy and incompetent.” Tony works very hard at what he does. Bruce thinks that Tony’s definition of “lazy” can be more easily translated to “efficient.” Tony focuses his attention on what he knows well, and he kicks everything else to the curb. Tony retires when the REO business is not performing well.

Tony was ready to sell his investment houses 3 years before the last peak. Before Tony sold his houses, Bruce advised him to hold on for a little longer. Three years later, near the end of the real estate boom, Bruce advised Tony to sell. Tony made 3 million dollars by taking Bruce’s advice. Tony claims that Bruce Norris makes a millionaire nearly every day he teaches. After Tony sold his houses, he bought two homes near rivers, and spent two and a half years on vacation. Tony works really hard when he works, and when he is done working, he stops completely.

When Bruce speaks at an event, he often gets an ovation afterwards. Bruce has noticed that every time Tony speaks at an event, Tony has a line of people trying to hug him afterwards. That is not a typical response.

Some people might feel intimidated by Tony, because they do not feel that they can compete with his personality. Tony interviewed the REO agents he worked with, and he discovered some of the reasons they chose to work with him. Perhaps the most important reason why these agents chose to work with Tony is because he never lied to them regardless of the consequences. When Tony had a problem with a deal that an agent gave him, he would schedule a meeting with them so that he could personally explain to them why he refused. Tony always explained to his agents what he needed in order to take a deal. Tony does not like telling agents that he does not want a deal; he tells them that he will take the deal when the numbers work for him.

When Tony interviewed 3 of his agents, they told him that they want to be told the truth, and they want investors to treat them pleasantly. An agent’s job is frequently unpleasant, because they have to evict families and they have their asset managers constantly complaining about their inability to sell quickly. Agents receive 30 calls a day from investors who want to buy foreclosures. You need to solve a problem for them. You cannot buy yourself a relationship if you only call for properties that will earn you an easy profit. If you do that, you will only be called for bad deals. You have to care about the agent’s success as much as your own.

Even an agent’s best investors sometimes cause problems. There are times where an experience agent will back out of a deal in the middle of escrow, because they discovered that a deal was not as good as they thought it was. Once you make a commitment to a deal, you need to stick with it regardless of the outcome. Never complain when a deal does not work out to your benefit.

You do not build relationships at the same speed you perform your business. Building a relationship takes more time. Building a relationship requires you to pay attention to the needs of another individual. Tony does research on the agents he works with. He discovered that some of them had children who belonged to baseball teams, so he donated money to the teams and bought from their candy fundraisers.

If relationships are not getting deeper, they are probably falling away. Realtors are going to first call you with their worst deals. You have to explain to them why you cannot do those deals unless they can get the numbers to work. Doing this will set you up for your first great deal.

When Tony buys a property from an agent, he will come back to that agent when it is time to sell that property. Other agents take notice to this kind of business. When the market peaked last time, Tony’s agents had no idea that he had obtained that many properties from them, and they were blown away. When he asked them to help sell those same properties, some of them were even jealous. Tony explained to them that he could not have obtained these properties without them.

Always thank the agents responsible for your success, both privately and publicly. When other agents notice you doing this, they start asking questions about what you’ve done. One of the agents that Tony worked with gained $500,000 in commissions within weeks, because the properties sold so fast. Tony did not have to do that, but in his mind, that is the only fair way to do business. The 1980s version of Tony would not have done this. Back then, Tony would have been selling his properties on his own, and squeezing every penny from the Realtors he worked with.

Tony states in his book that he is “relentless in loving the people [he] meets.” Tony believes that if he is not doing this, then he is not doing his job. Tony does not feel alive when he is not doing that. When you are kind to someone, it positively affects yourself, the person you are kind to, and the witness. Tony believes in a Creator, and he believes that if the Creator created you with that kind response to love, then you should not ignore it. The love you give others will increase your own happiness, and Tony does not believe that there is any other true recipe for success.

Tony’s book is called Breaking Into The REO Business. How I Went From Bankruptcy to $7.2 Million in 7 Years While Making Friends.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

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177-TNG Radio – Rick Solis 6-5-10

Friday, June 4th, 2010

Rick Solis

Appraiser and Investor

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This week Bruce is joined once again by Rick Solis. Rick wears many hats. He is a real estate investor, he is the appraiser for all of TNG’s hard money loans, and he occasionally trains people to appraise in TNG’s REO investing boot camps.

Rick bought his first house a week after his 20th birthday. This house was in Montclair. He sold it at the peak of the market, but then 10-31 exchanged the money from that property into another one, and eventually lost all the profit. He owed approximately $250,000 for the Montclair property in 1988, and he sold it for $450,000. He was paying for the home with the tenant, so they split the profit earning $100,000 each. In 1988, he read the Robert Allen books. Using that information, he found a realtor who helped him get a loan for this house.

The books Rick read helped him to think creatively about investment. However, Rick no longer uses creative investment techniques. Today, Rick is primarily concerned with buying properties below market. When you invest creatively, you usually owe 100 percent of what it is worth, and you do not have an equity option.

Rick and Bruce first met at a Nick Manfredi meeting in which Bruce spoke. Bruce was offering a deal on his product Selling Systems. Rick bought the book, and liked it so much that he came back and bought the rest of Bruce’s books.

Rick had a difficult time building an investment relationship with Bruce. The first time Rick asked Bruce to help him invest in a property, Rick was looking at a 5-unit property in San Bernardino. After describing the property, Bruce simply said, “No, that is not something I would be interested in.” Bruce thinks he might need to do a better job of explaining his decisions in the future. The reason why Bruce was not interested in this property was because he had previously tried buying similar properties in San Bernardino and that experience did not end well. Sometimes investors just get used to a specific niche and choose not to work with anything else.

Bruce bought a lot of 4-plexes in Moreno Valley during the 1990s. He sold these properties for $139,000, and their value peaked at $600,000. One of these properties recently opened for bid at a trustee sale for 1 dollar. This type of property has a tendency to cause a domino effect for other similar properties in the area; when one goes bad the rest usually follow. A lot of towns just tear these properties down.

Rick met Andrea at a book store in 2003. Rick told Andrea about Bruce’s boot camp, and she decided to attend it. At that time, the boot camp was pretty basic, but it told you exactly what you need to know when buying houses.

In the past, Rick advertised through the newspaper. Andrea advertised through letter campaigns. When Rick started working with Andrea, they were doing 1,000 letters per week, and they averaged 4 to 6 houses per month using this method. Their business relationship worked to their advantage, because some people do not want to work with men, and others do not want to work with women. Rick and Andrea have very different selling strategies. Rick’s selling strategy is straight forward; he looks at what you have and gives you an offer. Andrea can sell anything to anyone, even at a discounted price. Andrea’s ability to sell is more than a technique, it is a natural gift.

The longer Rick and Andrea did letter campaigns, the harder it got. When they first started they could find plenty of people with just a couple hundred, but by 2007 the lettering campaign become too expensive to pay for itself.

Most of the properties they bought were flipped in 2006. One of these properties was flipped to Bruce’s auction, and it worked very well for Rick. Unfortunately, the auctioning business did not work well for Bruce. Bruce started an auctioning business with high hopes, but discovered that it was very difficult to attract buyers. Rick tried helping Bruce by wearing TNG t-shirts and posting signs, but he was only able to get a couple people to attend his auction.

At the end of the boom, Rick got cocky because of how easy it was to buy and sell. Rick decided to 10-31 exchange into other properties in order to avoid taxes. Unfortunately, he reinvested too much and he lost a lot of the profit he gained from his California properties. Next time, Rick plans to just sell his properties, pay the taxes, and live happily with that.

Rick finds all his properties through the MLS. Sometimes agents bring deals to Rick. Lots of investors are entering the real estate business. About ¾ of the buyers are investors now. Unfortunately, many investor offers do not close. Some agents are now refusing to accept offers from investors now, because of the bad reputation investors now have for not closing.

Right now, the best-working strategy for Rick seems to be driving around and looking at properties. He does this 1 day per week, and Andrea does this 3 days per week. They both buy 3 properties per month. They hold 2/3 of them as rentals, and they intend to sell them as prices increase. After the next price increase, Rick intends to sell all of his properties and stop.

Rick and Andrea invest in the High Desert area. There are not many resale opportunities in that area, so they are primarily renting there. Many of the people in that area have bad credit, and will probably always be renters. Andrea has a sixth sense for knowing when a person is going to be a good renter. She is able to meet the potential renters, look at their application, call their employers and their landlords to see if they will be good renters for Rick and her.

Rick decided to quit investing in real estate around 2007, but Andrea continued. Andrea got great deals on six houses last year, and she was able to convince Rick to start investing again.

Business is completely different now. It is a much bigger challenge now to deal with owners and resale. Rick thinks this aspect of the business will become easier in the coming years.

Rick has been using his IRA to invest in mortgages since 2000. He began using his IRA to invest in houses since 2003.

Rick’s target rental property is less than half an acre. Properties with lots of land have a tendency to collect lots of junk. He prefers single story houses, and he is completely uninterested in rental properties with pools. Rick does not like investing in houses built before 1978, and he prefers the house’s square feet to be between 1,000 to 1,800.

In the High Desert, Rick typically gets 1 house for every 10 offers he makes. In areas near Fontana and Corona, Rick typically gets 1 house for every 50 offers. Rick does not make offers before he has seen the home and made repair estimates.

Rick likes Tony Alvarez’s business model, because Tony gets properties to cash flow. Rick does not like the buying, fixing, and selling business model right now, because it is very difficult to get to the finish line with a first time buyer, FHA loan, two appraisals and a review appraisal.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

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176-TNG Radio – Rick Solis 5-29-10

Friday, May 28th, 2010

Rick Solis

Appraiser and Investor

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This week Bruce is joined by Rick Solis. Rick wears many hats. He is a real estate investor, he is the appraiser for all of The Norris Group’s California hard money loans, and he occasionally trains people to appraise in The Norris Group’s REO boot camps.

Rick started appraising because his mother was a loan processor when he was a teenager. He was also interested in investing, but he was overpaying for properties. He began appraising to become a better investor. When he first began his appraising career, the only thing you needed to be an appraiser was a clipboard and a tape measurer. However, Rick believes that appraisal qualities were better back then than now with all the education requirements. In the past, appraisers had to be approved by each bank you wanted to appraise for, and you had to submit six work samples to prove you were able to do the job. Once licensing came into play, the banks eased off of those restrictions.

Rick closed escrow on his first house 1 week after his 20th birthday. Rick became attracted to the real estate business because of infomercials from Dave Deldado and Robert Allen.

Rick enjoys working with hard money lenders, because they actually want to know what the property is worth and what is wrong with it. That is the complete opposite of an A-paper appraisal job. All people involved in the A-paper transaction, other than the investor, do not want to know that information, because that information can kill the deals. Information like termite problems cannot be disclosed on an appraisal.

The investor is typically a private person with money, but you can also have a hard money loan with a different kind of intent. Some lenders are pressured to provide lenders with a specific appraisal value. Rick has had this experience with lenders in the past. Those lenders put a lot of pressure on appraisers, but he does not receive that kind of pressure from The Norris Group’s loan processor. Craig, TNG’s loan processor, would rather skip a deal than skew appraisal values.

In May, HVCC was passed. This new rule requires appraisal management companies to check on all appraisals for accuracies. Unfortunately, appraisal management companies are taking 40 percent of the earnings from appraisals, which means they must work much harder to earn the same income. This has caused many of the veteran appraisers to leave the business. Rick knows an appraiser who has found a way to cope with HVCC and make his job more efficient. This appraiser only takes appraisals that are close to him, and he looks at the properties before he accepts it. If there is anything wrong with the property he is looking at, the appraiser will skip it.

People often think of the appraisal process as being easy, because now they can push a button on Zillow which gives an estimated home value. However, this is very inaccurate. It is very difficult to come up with an accurate appraisal. It is also difficult to make an appraisal which meets all the guidelines of the lender and the investor who the lender is selling to.

FHA significantly loosened their requirements in the early 2000s. FHA once had a 2-page checklist of everything you had to check for on a property. For example, if the crawl space under the house didn’t have 18 inches of clearance the house had to be fixed. If there was any chipped paint on the house it would need to be fixed. However, they will allow some things like dirty carpet. FHA will accept non-permitted home modifications just as long as there are no health hazards. However, many banks and underwriters will not accept that. If non-permitted additions add value to a house, then you are supposed to account for it in an appraisal. It is very difficult to find comparable houses for a house with non-permitted additions.

In the current market, if your house is in average condition, there is not much you can do on repairs which will add a significant amount of value to your house. However, if your house is in bad condition then you can get a decent return on the cost of repairs. Regardless of how much money you’ve spent rehabbing, appraisers will not adjust the price by any more than 10 percent.

Cost basis appraisals are no longer being used. No appraiser who spends half his day looking for land sales is going to come up with an accurate land value.

Bruce Norris brings up an example for when the cost based appraisal may be useful…

Bruce: “If you were making an offer on a custom home, and you wanted the lot value to be emerged from what a custom home would be once it is done, then that would be like a residual value. This could be used to prove to a lot owner that it was once worth x value, but once you subtract the costs and the appraisal then the lot will be worth x. ‘Is that a useful idea?’”

Rick: “Possibly.”

Rick has never done this kind of appraisal, but Bruce wants him to. If you can look at the comps and subtract the costs, then you will have the residual dirt value. Rick thinks that is so simple that you probably wouldn’t need an appraiser to do it.

Around 2006, people were concerned about buying homes with awkward floor plans. Currently, investors no longer seem to be concerned by this. This may be due to the fact that these types of homes represent the largest portion of the current “for sale” market. They are taking a price hit on those homes, but they are still able to make a profit.

Appraisers account for pool values using comps. For example, if an appraiser is looking at two homes that are very similar except for the fact that one has a pool and the other does not, then the pool value will be calculated by subtracting the value of the home without a pool from the value of the home with the pool. If the home without a pool has a value of $200,000, and the value of the home with a pool is $210,000, then the value of the pool is $10,000. The value of a pool can change dramatically depending on where you live. In some areas a pool adds little value to the home, but in other areas a pool can add a lot of value. Rick has noticed that pools typically add up to 0 to 5 percent of the house. Also, the value of a pool can change dramatically depending on what season you sell in. If you sell during a hot season, the pool will be more valuable.

The number of bedrooms within a house does not affect the price much. The square footage of a house is more important the number of rooms within it. Some families like two big bedrooms more than 3 small ones, and vice versa.

If you are appraising a property as an investor, avoid location problems. Stay away from atypical problems, especially problems that cannot be fixed. Old homes surrounded by new homes will not sell well, and dome home styles don’t sell well either.

Investors often make the mistake of assuming that an old remodeled home will sell for the same value as a new home in the same condition. Newer homes will always sell at a higher value.

Mello-roos homes can also be a detriment to home value. However, a lot of first time buyers do not always notice this difference.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

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175-TNG Radio – Bill Shipp-Young 5-22-10

Friday, May 21st, 2010

Bill Shipp

Bill Shipp, California Real estate Investor

(Full Bio)

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This week Bruce is joined by Bill Shipp. Bill has been investing in Riverside real estate for many years. Bruce thinks Bill is Riverside’s best kept secret.

Bill believes it is important to be true to your word when doing business. Bill has been working with his contractors for 10 years, and he has never had a bid on a home repair. These contractors know that if Bill hires them, they will get paid at the time he specifies. This is even more important than having people skills.

Bruce has taught many real estate investors. Some of them have great people skills, and that is what gets them business. There are also people that are trustworthy, and that is also attractive to business partners.

In the last segment, Bill said that he is willing to do his job every day, and that attitude has allowed him to accumulate a wealth of knowledge. Bill’s knowledge of his market place allows him to live in Utah while still making good investment decisions in Riverside.

Bill has never closed an escrow with a person in it, and he has never bought a house at the steps. Bill does not want to deal with those hassles. This is why he uses the MLS and agents who know what they are doing. Bill gets over 50 percent of the houses that he makes offers on, because his realtors know not to call him unless a home shows promise. Bill works regularly with two realtors, but he receives calls occasionally from other REO agents as well.

Bill has a specific skew number for the paint which he uses on all his houses. Because he uses the same paint for his houses, it is easier for him to calculate how much repairs will cost when buying a new home. This also makes it much simpler for his repair men, because they know exactly what to do for every new job.

Bill discourages investors from traveling to see their investments. Do it for the first two properties, so you can figure out how to do the job. After the second, you should know what kind of property is worth your time, and trust your contractor to do his job. Traveling to your investment homes will cost you money and time. Also, Bill suggests that investors not bring their wives. His wife always has minor problems with his investments, such as the amount of flowers in the yard.

The typical repair cost for Bill’s investment houses is $15,000 or less. However, he has had home repairs that cost $100,000. In the early 2000s, he bought older homes. The oldest home he ever bought was developed in 1828. The house was so old that the home began to dissolve when the repair man tried to pressure wash it. Bruce once bought a home in 1898. Bruce had a termite investor inspect the home, and the inspector told him that there were no termites because the wood was petrified.

Bill does not have a construction background, but he has learned some things about that trade over time. When you buy a lot of older homes, you have to be creative to find a style that people will want to buy. In the late 1980s, Bill only bought homes that were 5 to 10 years old and did not need work, but Bill now only works with fixers built before the 2000s. Bill does not like to compete with home owners. When you are flipping new homes, you are not creating value. Bill thinks that working in the trustee market requires too much work. This is what Bruce’s company does, and Bruce agrees that the trustee market is too much hassle for Bill’s business model.

When reselling a property, Bill uses the listing agent that found the home for him, and he only uses two agents to keep the process simple. Using a large number of agents makes it difficult to determine whether or not those agents are doing their jobs correctly.

When Bill is selling his properties, he tries to control the escrow, but he never controls which lender is used. Bill’s buyers are always cross checked with the lender. Bill’s agent will not tell him that he has an offer until the buyer has been cross checked, and until he can know if he will get a good offer.

Bill is constantly educating himself in real estate. He reads many books, he has attended Bruce’s seminars, and he has been trained as a certified financial planner. Bill believes that many people know how to make a lot of money, but they do not know how to spend it. People do not often plan for downturns in the market, and their lack of planning ruins their financial health.

In the early 1990s, Bill had 40 rentals. It took 8 years to get those homes sold, and it was very frustrating because the market kept going down.

Bill began investing in Texas during 1989. He bought homes for $10,000 each and he owned them free and clear, but he was receiving negative cashflow every month because of property taxes. Repairing one roof could wipe out your positive cashflow for a year. In the end, he only made money on one of those homes. Do not buy real estate in other cities and states if you do not know what you are doing.

In 1986 Bruce was asked to speak on a panel of real estate experts. There were two well known attorneys on the panel, and all of their claims regarding out-of-state property ownership contradicted Bruce’s practical experience. When Bruce asked those attorneys how they came to their conclusions, he discovered that they had no out-of-state investment experience and were relying on theoretical knowledge. When people come from other states and tell you to buy homes in their areas, be careful. Why would someone travel across the United States to encourage you to buy their property if they cannot even get the people from their own state to buy?

If there are more listings in a region than sells, you should be nervous. On the other hand, if there are more sells than listings, then you should be happy. This is all Bill looks at when predicting whether or not he should be investing. Bill does not pay much attention to economic forecasts. He only pays attention to Riverside’s market, so he does not have to worry about general market forecasts.

The best deal Bill ever had was a wholesale in Corona. The property sold in 2 weeks and he earned over $100,000. If you want to find deals, you need to be watching the market every day. You never know why a seller might want to get rid of their property quickly. An agent once called Bill and told him that the seller was offering five houses and two lots on one street. The seller was the chairman of a bank who had stock options which were about to expire. The banker needed the money for those properties quickly, so that he could buy his stock. This deal shows that you never know why and when a great deal is going to show up. Bruce once bought a house from an agent once who was getting into the plastic extrusion business. The agent needed to buy an extrusion machine for $10,000, so Bruce bought two of his homes for that amount.

Bill has been approached with bulk buying opportunities over the last few months. The people offering these bulk buy deals told Bill that they have had bulk buys in the past that sold quickly. When Bill asked for an example of one of these bulk deals, he never received a response and he still hasn’t. Bill received a bulk buy opportunity from a company in Los Angeles as well. Because the company seemed professional, Bill had his agent check out the properties. The agent discovered that all 20 of the properties for bulk sale were short sales.

Bruce will be a moderator for Fannie and Freddie in June. These companies are putting together bulk sale divisions, so perhaps bulk sale opportunities will be available in the future.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

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174-TNG Radio – Bill Shipp-Young 5-15-10

Friday, May 14th, 2010

Bill Shipp, California Real estate Investor

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This week Bruce is joined by Bill Shipp. Bill has been investing in Riverside real estate for many years. Bruce thinks Bill is Riverside’s best kept secret.

Bill began flipping homes in 1986. He did his first flip deal when he was 18 years old. He had a family member who had bought the lot but could not afford it, so Bill agreed to buy it for 2,600 dollars and he sold it a couple years later for $6,000.

Before his first real estate investment, Bill was an airforce brat. He moved around a lot which made him wish he could own a house. Prior to 1986, Bill was working a corporate job and strongly disliked it. He had a good friend who was a real estate investor in the Long Beach area. This friend encouraged Bill to learn real estate. Bill’s friend explained that Bill would most likely not become very wealthy if he continued to work in the corporate world, and he would always have to worry about his job security. If you own your own business of buying and selling real estate you can never get fired. This encouraged Bill to quit his job and begin working as a real estate agent.

Bill did learn some important lessons from the corporate world. He learned to run his real estate business the same way as if he was working a corporate job. He did not sleep in just because he owned his own business. He would begin working at 8, and he worked normal hours.

Bill’s mentor taught him how to buy homes, and how to figure out prices and fixing costs. His mentor was very regimented. If Bill was even a minute late, his mentor would leave him. Bill listened to all of his mentor’s phone calls, and he learned how he conducted business with other visitors.

Bill’s mentor never got into educating people. He simply picked a few people that he new personally to work with him. Bill thinks he was the lucky person to be picked by this mentor because he showed good discipline.

Bill has bought and sold 360 houses. He does not have make many deals in which he personally speaks to the home owners he buys from; he probably only talks about 10 percent of these home owners. He never used mailers or signs.

If Bill was beginning to invest in Riverside with all his current knowledge, he would first call his agent and show them his accomplishments. Agents hear from many people who claim to be real estate investors but are not truly serious. For this reason, Bill keeps a portfolio of every house he has bought and sold. He shows this portfolio to agents during interviews. He then tries to persuade these agents that working with him is a good idea. He interviews multiple agents until he finds a couple of agents who are willing to be trained for his specific style of work.

Bill has not tried to develop relationships with people who control the most popular sources of REOs, but his name is somewhat well known by these people because of the business he does.

A typical investor will receive a call from an agent in which the agent explains what kinds of new inventory have recently come up. This agent might tell the investor that 20 new listings showed up. The agent and the investor would then look at many of those houses and attempt to narrow down their options. The kind of calls that Bill receives from his agents is very different. Bill’s agents will tell him which one of those 20 properties he would most likely be interested in. Bill would then ask who is listing the home, and the realtor would be able to tell him whether or not he had done business with that person previously. His Realtor would also be able to tell him what kind of neighborhood it is in, and whether or not he has done business in that area before. This Realtor would also give him a description of the other houses on sale in that area, the price they are listed at, and a description of the property Bill wants to buy. He would then make an offer slightly below the typical asking price of that neighborhood, and his offer would be made within just a few hours of being listed. This is how you beat the competition. You have to be able to make offers and close deals before the competition arrives.

What really gives Bill an advantage over his competition is the ability of his realtors to identify houses within specific streets of his city. Bill’s realtors are so familiar with their areas that they can look at a specific street, compare the prices of the other properties for sale on that street, and quickly determine whether or not a specific house is a good deal.

Agents are often skeptical of whether or not there are whole sale deals on the market. Part of the problems is that they are not disciplined, they are not experienced, and they are not accustomed to doing their job every day. It takes time for agents to spot a good deal quickly. Bill can buy properties out of the MLS even when the market is going up, and people claim there is no way to find a deal. When Bill told Bruce this in 2004, Bruce was very surprised and it taught him something.

During the real estate boom, everyone was an investor; you did not need to be good at investing during that time to make money. During that time, Bill was not worried about competition because there was so much business.

Name familiarity is very important when dealing with people who control the source of inventory. People who know Bill know that he has only backed out of 1 offer in his entire real estate career. If people know you are going to go through with your offers, they will be more willing to do business with you.

Bill typically puts a $5,000 deposit on his offers regardless of the home price. Bill recently lost an offer to someone who gave an offer for 100 percent of the purchase price. This was an investor trained by Bruce Norris.

Bill usually offers a 10 day close, or the seller’s preference. He has actually lost offers in the past because the bank felt the closing time was too quick, so allowing the seller to choose the closing time is best.

When Bill discovers that he has made an offer on a property with multiple offers, he simply responds by giving them his highest and best offer. Bill doesn’t have a problem with making only $20,000 on a property which gives him an advantage when making offers. Some investors will not bother making a deal if they cannot buy it for 62 percent of the price.

Bill may be one of the biggest investors in California, but he actually lives in Utah. He has developed a business model which does not need him to make full time deals. Bill cannot think of anyone with a business model like this, and that is why he sticks to one city. Having all his properties within a very specific region allows him to easily manage all his properties. Bill does not invest at all in Utah.

Bill typically buys under the $200,000 price range. Many of his buyers are FHA buyers, and many of them are conventional. When the market gets slow, Bill does not fight it, he just quits and waits until things pick up. Bill did have some trouble getting back into the market not long ago, because many rules had changed since his last transaction. When Bill re-entered the market, the 90 day FHA rule was still in place, and Bill did not know about it. His first offer was an FHA and the appraisal came in $15,000 low. He chose to be satisfied with the $10,000 dollars he made off the property and move on. Bill encourages people to not fall in love with their properties, so they will make smart selling decisions. Bill decided to leave the market in 2007 because he was receiving multiple offers on all his homes, and the offers were too high. Things were getting too crazy. When Bill looked at the loan documents, his buyers would have a 10 percent interest rate with a 700 FICO score. Bill wanted to tell these people, “What are you thinking?”

Bill does not buy and hold rentals. Bruce thinks that is interesting because many people think that is the best way to invest. Bill believes that if you are a full time investor, flipping houses will be more profitable then renting. However, renting is a good option for passive investors. Passive investing is what Bill did when he first started investing. When he first starting buying properties, he bought 45 rentals and he eventually ended up with negative cash flow. When times get tough, people start moving which leaves you with vacant rentals.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

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Important Notice: New EPA Lead-Based Paint Rules

Friday, April 23rd, 2010
Hi %$firstname$%,
I wanted to quickly inform you of new lead-based paint guidelines
released by the EPA and enforceable as of April 22nd.
This will be important for Realtors, contractors, investors, and
property managers. Please spread the word. According to the EPA:
“Beginning April 22, 2010, federal law will require that contractors
performing renovation, repair and painting projects that disturb
more than six square feet of paint in homes, child care facilities,
and schools built before 1978 must be certified and trained to
follow specific work practices to prevent lead contamination.”
http://www.epa.gov/lead/pubs/leadinfo.htm#remodeling
Removal of lead paint is similar to mold removal. There do not
appear to be any new disclosure forms but there is potential
risk/liability including a large fine if caught violating these
guidelines.
The onus ultimately resides on contractors that are trained and
certified in new mediation practices.  Please take the time to
read the EPA’s website and take a look at the National Association
of Realtors website below and get informed.
National Association of Realtors Videos and Resources on the New
Lead-Based Paint Rules:
http://www.realtor.org/government_affairs/lead_paint_main
EPA Info for Contractors:
http://www.epa.gov/lead/pubs/renovation.htm#contractors
EPA List of Certified Prfessionals
http://cfpub.epa.gov/flpp/searchrrp_firm.htm
I will also post this on our blog.
Thanks,
Aaron Norris

I wanted to quickly inform you of new lead-based paint guidelines released by the EPA and enforceable as of April 22nd.

This will be important for Realtors, contractors, investors, and property managers. Please spread the word. According to the EPA:

“Beginning April 22, 2010, federal law will require that contractors performing renovation, repair and painting projects that disturb more than six square feet of paint in homes, child care facilities, and schools built before 1978 must be certified and trained to follow specific work practices to prevent lead contamination.”

http://www.epa.gov/lead/pubs/leadinfo.htm#remodeling

Removal of lead paint is similar to mold removal. There do not appear to be any new disclosure forms but there is potential risk/liability including a large fine if caught violating these guidelines.

The onus ultimately resides on contractors that are trained and certified in new mediation practices.  Please take the time to read the EPA’s website and take a look at the National Association of Realtors website below and get informed.

National Association of Realtors Videos and Resources on the New Lead-Based Paint Rules:

http://www.realtor.org/government_affairs/lead_paint_main

EPA Info for Contractors

http://www.epa.gov/lead/pubs/renovation.htm#contractors

EPA List of Certified Professionals

http://cfpub.epa.gov/flpp/searchrrp_firm.htm

Hope you find this helpful.

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169-TNG Radio – Harry Dent 4-10-10

Friday, April 9th, 2010

Harry Dent

Harry Dent

Harry Dent, Economist

(Full Bio)

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This week Bruce Norris is joined once again by Harry Dent. Harry is the president of the H.S. Dent Foundation, which publishes the H.S. Dent forecast. His mission is to help people understand change. He is the author of many books, which include The Great Boom Ahead 1992 and The Roaring 2000s and The Great Depression Ahead.

The title The Great Depression Ahead is gutsy. This book came out in 2009. Harry finished writing the book in the first half of 2008. However, we had some significant events occur at the end of 2008. The only thing that really surprised Harry was the stock market rally. He assumed that the economy would get worse, and as it got worse, the government would stimulate it. Harry predicted the stock market would bounce to 9800 and maybe even 11,800. We are right in the middle of that zone right now. Short term indicators predict that we might go even higher in the near future. However, he thought this stock bounce would begin and end earlier. Harry does not believe the recovery will last, because the baby boomers will go from spending to saving.

Harry defines a depression as an extended downturn in which you also see a deflation in prices. The reason why prices go down is because banks and loans are failing. This destroys credit and money. The deleveraging of credit causes deflation. In a depression, everything goes down. In an inflationary downturn like the 1970s, real estate goes up. Real estate does well during inflation. The failure of the banking system is the biggest shock an economic system can have. Harry believes that later this year and in 2011 we will go into a depression.

Alan Greenspan once said, “I watched my whole intellectual education fall apart in 2008”. That took a lot of guts to say, and it was astonishing to think that someone like Greenspan had studied economics for 50 years but still estimated incorrectly. Economists can look at a chart and come to two completely different conclusions.

Anyone who has studied business cycles throughout history knows that human greed takes over every time. Anytime you have low regulation, low interest rates, and bubbles building, people go nuts. People start thinking that the market will never go down, and the banks will lend to anyone. If bubbles go on for long enough, anyone will buy into a bubble. Its not a matter of intelligence, it’s a matter of understanding human nature, and that is where economists fall short. All economists look at is statistics.

There are no exceptions to the cycle of economics. The economy always goes from summer to fall, from inflation to disinflation. In the fall season is when you get bubbles, and when you get bubbles, the government always claims it can fix the problem, but they cannot and they have proven this over and over again. Bubbles have to deflate. We don’t want real estate to be so expensive that young people cannot afford it.

The bigger the boom the bigger the bust. Fortunately, we have a tool that tells you how long a boom will last approximately, and when it will wind down. Harry predicted how the economy would change by looking at the birth index. Booms always lead to excesses, and excessive lending and business expansion.

Japan had a real estate bubble similar to ours. They had excessive lending and unaffordable real estate prices. They had a demographic boom peak before the rest of the world, because they were the only major country who did not have a baby boom after WWII. Japan went through their downturn while the rest of the world was in the greatest boom of history. They didn’t have as much deflation as we will have, and their export industries can still be working at 120 percent. Japan also entered their crisis as a net creditor to the world. Almost all their debt was financed by their own citizens, so they had more capacity to stimulate and keep stimulating.

The U.S. is entering this downturn, and the whole country is going down with it. Baby boom demographics are down around the world. The world has also had a banking crisis and real estate bubble. We’re dragging people down with us, but they would have gone down anyways. The U.S. is the biggest net debtor in the world. We owe trillions of dollars to other countries. 50 percent of our debt is financed by foreign investors. This is contributing to the world downturn.

In 2011, Harry believes debt will overwhelm the banking system. This will cause the deficit to reach about $22 trillion. Harry thinks the debt will encourage our government to borrow even more, and we will pay for it. Japan tried to do this, and they will be sorry for it. Their debt to GDP ratio is 2.5 times what ours is. The only reason why they are surviving is because they are still paying interest rates on that debt at less than 2 percent. In the next decade, they will have to pay market rates like the rest of the world. Japan never truly deflated their bubble. They deflated their businesses, but they didn’t deflate their financial institutions. They have no way to easily get themselves out of this trouble.

Harry believes that Europe is going to start having debt trouble as well. When this happens, France and Germany will have to pick up the tab, but they won’t want to have any part in that. They will demand that the other countries cut their spending and raise taxes to cover their own debt.

In the United States, healthcare and social security expenses are already at costs above what we can afford, and we are now looking to expand that. Company and government pensions are unrealistically generous. Once we get to the point where we have to cut those pensions, people are going to go nuts. There may be riots. Bruce agrees with Harry on this issue. $46 trillion in unfunded medicare, Medicaid, and social security liabilities have already been promised to people. That is 4 times as much as the current government debt. We can’t afford the healthcare we have, and now they are trying to pass another healthcare bill.

The government will have to confess its inability to pay the baby boom generation its social benefits around 2012 or 2013 when the crisis will be at its worst. We will not get out of the mortgage and housing crisis until 2012. Harry believes that Obama will not be reelected, because he became president at a bad time.

We are going to have an enormous amount of debt in the next couple years, which is part of the reason why Harry does not support the new health reform bill. We will not be able to sustain the cost of this new program, and Bruce doubts that Congress has fully read through this health care bill.

When you have deflation, it exaggerates the current debt level. Harry believes that this will cause the government to scale back on age limits for social security and health care. Private debt will scale down substantially. All the debt ratios will get worse. Many businesses will go under or merge with other businesses. Banks will have to write off trillions in loans. Deflation works to restructure debt, rather than pay it off. If we had to pay all that debt off with deflated dollars, it would be much more difficult. At the end of this deflation period, we will be much stronger. Stronger companies will take over weak companies, costs get cut, and real estate goes down.

There are very few properties for sale in California right now, and it is easy to resale. The default rate has doubled in the last 12 months, but the foreclosure numbers have been cut in half. Banks are not foreclosing on people, because they do not know what to do with so many properties. Despite the 6 percent GDP, which Harry does not believe will last, defaults will continue to increase and foreclosures will continue to hit the market. This will suppress real estate prices. Banks will eventually have to write off a lot of those loans and foreclose. This is what will kill the recovery. Once the banks realize that real estate won’t recover, we will see the next banking crisis.

There is a psychology attached to exaggerated events like booms. When booms occur, people rationalize their decisions and the same thing happens in a down cycle. When things go down, people develop a pessimistic attitude towards the future. Baby boomers have not yet had a major downturn in both the real estate and stock market at the same time. This crash is going to cause retirements to disappear for baby boomers, and this loss will cause them to save even more. They will have to work longer but they may not be able to get jobs, because older people cost more in benefits. Harry is forecasting 15 percent unemployment.

Harry believes interest rates will increase this year. However, the bond market will eventually notice that the economy is slowing and then interest rates will decrease. This is what happened in 1931 when the crisis was building. We had a great boom market in bonds from 1932 to 1940 when interest rates were falling. In the next decade we will see deflation. If you want to buy long term bonds, Harry encourages people to wait until later this year or early next year. If you want to refinance, you may want to wait until interest rates come back down. This downturn in interest rates will happen between 2011 and 2013.

Bruce never thought he would see interest rates go down this low. Bruce began his real estate career in 1981 when he refinanced his house at 17.5 percent. Now we are at sub five percent rates, and we may see rates go even lower. Harry agrees and claims we may see rates go down to 3 to 4 percent.

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The Norris Group Vlog – Mold Featuring Julie Crittenden

Wednesday, April 7th, 2010

It’s finally here! The first Norris Group video blog featuring mold expert Julie Crittenden.

The Norris Group is dedicated to continued education through our radio show, news blog, and now the newest feature to our website, our video blog. These short segments will explore basic concepts and important topics not often understood and/or covered from the point of view of the real estate investor. We look forward to your feedback as we grow this new feature and resource. We hope you find it helpful.

Special thank you to Julie for being our first guest and Rich Durant for editing!

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