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California Real Estate Headline Roundup

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 11/19/10

Monday, November 22nd, 2010

Resources:
Delinquencies and Loans in Foreclosure Decrease
Southland Home Sales Fall, Prices Flat
CoreLogic: Mortgage fraud up 20% from 2009
Freddie Mac survey shows mortgage rates at highest level since August
Freddie Mac survey shows mortgage rates at highest level since August
Home Buying Gets Tougher as Lenders Restrict FHA Loans
FHA Reserves Fall to Lowest on Record as Agency Boosts Capital
MERS to testify it forecloses only by mortgage servicer request
http://banking.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Hearings.LiveStream&Hearing_id=df8cb685-c1bf-4eea-941d-cf9d5173873a
Problems in Mortgage Servicing From Modification to Foreclosure
MERS CEO Defends Technology to Senate Committee
The Consequences of Mortgage Irregularities for Financial Stability… in Plain English
CAI Survey: Associations Hit Hard by Housing, Economic Slump
FTC Issues Final Rule to Protect Struggling Homeowners from Mortgage Relief Scams
Fiserv expects another big drop in home prices next year
S&P predicts more home price declines through 2011

Today’s News Synopsis:

October home sales fell 9.8%, according to RE/MAX. The Federal Trade Commission released a new rule banning companies from accepting fees on mortgage mods before a homeowner’s loan servicer deems the services rendered acceptable. The Federal Housing Finance Administration announced that loan limits on jumbo conforming loans will stay the same for the first nine months of 2011. The Treasury reports borrowers aided by HAMP increased to nearly 520,000 last month.

In The News:

Inman - “Median housing value fell 5.8% in 2009″ (11-19-10)

“Median housing value fell 5.8 percent in 2009, to $185,200 from $196,700 in 2008, the U.S. Census Bureau reported, according to data obtained from the American Community Survey (ACS).”

Housing Wire“Fed chairman disappointed in slow economic recovery” (11-19-10)

“Disappointingly slow. That’s Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s latest assessment of the economic recovery in the U.S. But, he does believe the central bank’s policy changes are helping.”

Housing Wire“Tightening mortgage tax code limits housing recovery: John Burns” (11-19-10)

“John Burns Real Estate Consulting said in a report Friday that government intervention is hurting the housing market, and the firm is growing more concerned that lawmakers will reduce the cap on mortgage interest rates that qualify for tax deductions ‘significantly.’”

Housing Wire“Credit Suisse lists mortgage servicers with highest Ginnie Mae delinquencies” (11-19-10)

“Ally Financial’s (GJM: 22.39 +0.40%) GMAC Mortgage holds the highest serious delinquency rate of Ginnie Mae-backed mortgages for any servicer, according to a report from investment bank Credit Suisse.”

Housing Wire“New FTC rule aimed at mortgage-relief scams” (11-19-10)

“The Federal Trade Commission unveiled a new rule that bans companies from accepting fees for mortgage modifications before a homeowner’s bank or loan servicer deems the services rendered acceptable.”

Housing Wire“Failed HAMP mod short sales increase through September” (11-19-10)

“Top mortgage servicers have completed 91,827 short sales or deeds-in-lieu of foreclosure on canceled trial or declined modifications through the Home Affordable Modification Program as of September, up 27% from the previous month, according to data from the Treasury Department.”

Bloomberg - “U.S. Homeowners Drop Out of Foreclosure Program Amid Record Defaults” (11-19-10)

“Borrowers aided by the Home Affordable Modification Program grew to nearly 520,000 in October, up 23,750 from a month earlier, the Treasury said in its monthly report. The increase was less than five percent. A total of 36,300 borrowers have dropped out of the plan for failing to make their payments, an increase of 24 percent from a month earlier.”

Housing Wire“RE/MAX: October home sales slide as seasonal slowdown hits market” (11-19-10)

“October home sales slid 9.8% from September and 30.2% compared to the year-ago period as seasonal slowdowns and the expired homebuyer’s tax credit took their toll, according to the RE/MAX National Housing Report released Friday.”

Housing Wire“Jumbo loan limits remain the same in 2011″ (11-19-10)

“The loan limits on jumbo conforming loans will remain unchanged for the first nine months of 2011 the Federal Housing Finance Administration said Friday. The agency recently enacted a congressional continuing resolution to maintain the limits.”

Housing Wire - “Failed HAMP mod short sales increase through September” (11-19-10)

“Top mortgage servicers have completed 91,827 short sales or deeds-in-lieu of foreclosure on canceled trial or declined modifications through the Home Affordable Modification Program as of September, up 27% from the previous month, according to data from the Treasury Department.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, an amendment was passed allowing federal regulators to dismantle financial firms considered to be “too big to fail”.  According to PMI Group, new home sales had decreased by 3.6 percent. The NAHB estimated that families earning the national median income could afford 70.1 percent of the new and existing homes sold in Q3 of 2009. First American CoreLogic reported that home prices declined by 9.8 percent in September from the previous year.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor event calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 200 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 11/15/10

Monday, November 15th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

Fed Governor Sarah Raskin expects 2.25 million foreclosures to occur this year and the next. Fiserv believes home prices will drop 7.1% over the next 12 months. According to the CAR, 66% of first time home buyers can afford an entry-level home in California. Josh Levin of Citigroup predicts housing demand may not catch up to supply until 2014.

In The News:

Xinhuanet - “Fed: Projections remain grim for future U.S. home foreclosures” (11-13-10)

“The U.S. Federal Reserve’s projections remain very grim for the foreseeable future, as it expected about 2.25 million foreclosure filings this year and again next year, and about 2 million more in 2012, Fed Governor Sarah Raskin said on Friday.”

CAR - “First-time buyer housing affordability improves slightly in Q3″ (11-15-10)

“The percentage of first-time buyers who could afford to purchase an entry-level home in California stood at 66 percent in the third quarter of 2010, according to C.A.R.’s First-time Buyer Housing Affordability Index (FTB-HAI). In the second quarter of 2010, the Index was a revised 65 percent and was 64 percent in the third quarter of 2009.”

CNBC - “Is It Time to End the Mortgage Tax Deduction?” (11-15-10)

“Home buyer tax credits and mortgage bailouts included, the mortgage-interest deduction is the biggest ongoing boon to the housing market and one of the costliest deductions in the U.S. tax code. It will slice an estimated $131 billion out of tax revenue in 2012.”

Housing Wire“Flagstar closes sale of $474 million non-performing loans” (11-15-10)

“Flagstar Bancorp (FBC: 1.28 -3.03%) completed the sale of about $474 million residential first mortgage, non-insured, non-performing loans, as the largest bank holding company in the Midwest sheds underperforming assets.”

Housing Wire“Fiserv expects another big drop in home prices next year” (11-15-10)

“Despite national gains in home prices through the second quarter, Fiserv, a financial services technology provider, said it expects a 7.1% drop over the next 12 months with some markets falling into a double-dip.”

Housing Wire - “BarCap: US Treasurys holdings increase 23% in 3Q” (11-15-10)

“Holdings of U.S. Treasurys increased 23.2%, or $41.1 billion, at the top 50 bank holding companies in the third quarter, according to investment bank Barclays Capital.”

Housing Wire“S&P predicts more home price declines through 2011″ (11-15-10)

“Standard & Poor’s analysts believe home prices will drop between 7% and 10% through 2011, erasing any improvements prices have recently made.”

Housing Wire“Monday morning cup of coffee” (11-15-10)

“The Council of the District of Columbia approved the Saving DC Homes from Foreclosure provision that requires lenders to engage in a four-month mediation period with delinquent borrowers to discuss payment options before foreclosure.”

Bloomberg - “U.S. Housing Excess Seen Lasting Four More Years: Chart of the Day” (11-15-10)

“So many U.S. homes are unoccupied these days that demand may not catch up with the supply until 2014, according to Josh Levin, an analyst at Citigroup Inc. Last quarter’s vacancy rate was 10.96 percent, near a peak of 11.05 percent in the second quarter.”

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor event calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 200 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 11/12/10

Monday, November 15th, 2010

Resources:
Home Values Near Unprecedented Decline as Hints of Stabilization Wane in Third Quarter
FDIC prepares to crack down on officials of failed banks
FDIC OKs plan to overhaul insurance fund payments
Obama commission considers limits to mortgage interest tax deductions

Today’s News Synopsis:

Freddie Mac reports 30-year loan rates decreased to 2.24%. Freddie Mac economists said bank foreclosure programs could cause housing to drop to a new low. President Obama intends to select Joseph Smith as the new director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency. D.R. Horton expects 2011 to be a weak year for the home-building industry.

USA Today“Stable home prices, low mortgage rates could gas economy” (11-12-10)

“Rates on 30-year fixed loans averaged 4.17%, down from 4.24% a week ago, Freddie Mac reported Thursday. They’ve been below 5% since early May.”

Housing Wire“California Realtors say cutting mortgage interest tax deduction will devastate nation” (11-12-10)

“Home prices in the affluent California county increased roughly 6% to $699,174 in October, according to the association. It’s up 11% from a year ago. The National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform, proposed two options in their efforts to overhaul the tax system. One was to reduce how much homeowners could deduct by 20%, and the other was to exclude second residences, home equity loans or mortgages over $500,000.”

Housing Wire“Excessive risk retention may throttle mortgage finance: ASF” (11-12-10)

“Under the sweeping reforms of Dodd-Frank, federal financial regulators are tasked with defining a qualified residential mortgage to determine which loans will be exempt from new risk-retention requirements. The American Securitization Forum wants the regulators to establish new standards for income and asset verification, minimum borrower equity, and debt-to-income ratios that its members believe significantly strengthen the mortgage pools and ‘ensures appropriate credit can resume flowing to American homebuyers.’”

Housing Wire“Freddie Mac says foreclosure problems may drain recovery” (11-12-10)

“Freddie Mac economists said recent problems in the banks’ foreclosure processes could slow what little momentum the recovery holds, and perhaps send the housing market down to a new low.”

Housing Wire“KBW says market ‘overly pessimistic’ on Fannie, Freddie losses” (11-12-10)

“Analysts at investment bank Keefe, Bruyette & Woods said both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have enough in reserves to absorb losses from legacy portfolios and that market estimates of potential losses are ‘overly pessimistic.’”

Housing Wire“Obama to nominate Joseph Smith as director of FHFA” (11-12-10)

“President Obama will nominate Joseph Smith as the new director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, according to the White House.”

Housing Wire“Barclays Capital expects Fed to buy Treasurys beyond 2Q” (11-12-10)

“Barclays Capital expects the Federal Reserve will continue buying Treasury securities past the second quarter, although it appears investors feel otherwise as there has been considerable sell-off in long-term bonds this week.”

Bloomberg“D.R. Horton Sees `Challenging’ Year as Home Sales May Decline” (11-12-10)

“D.R. Horton Inc., the second-largest U.S. homebuilder by revenue, expects 2011 to be ‘challenging’ for the industry as consumer confidence and employment remain weak, Chief Executive Officer Donald Tomnitz said.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, foreclosure filings were found in approximately one out of every 385 U.S. homes. The MBA reported that mortgage loan application volume increased by 3.2 percent in one week. The jumbo loan limit that was set to expire at the end of 2009 was extended through 2010.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor event calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 200 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

198-TNG Radio – John Schaub 10-30-10

Friday, October 29th, 2010

John  Schaub

John Schaub

Real Estate Investor, Teacher and Author


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This week Bruce Norris is joined by John Schaub. John has prospered during 3 recessions as an investor. He has 35 years of real estate investing experience. His 2005 best selling book Building Wealth One House At a Time assisted more than 50,000 real estate investors. His 2007 book titled Building Wealth in a Changing Real Estate Market is available in bookstores and online.

In the early 1980s, we had a crash in real estate. We had high unemployment, high interest rates and a low volume of sales. Every down turn is different, and that is what makes real estate challenging. Charles Darwin once said, “It is not the strongest or the most intelligent of the species who survive, it is the ones most adaptable to change.” You have to be able to analyze a market, and adapt your strategy. Having 35 years is experience is important for being able to determine when change is occurring, and how to deal with that change.

Many of the people who have not survived the down turn have a lot of bank debt. Many of the people who did survive own a property free and clear, have cash in the bank, and didn’t refinance as often.

If you talk to an account and tell him/her that you own houses free and clear, they look at you as if you are making a big mistake. They don’t understand that owning a house free and clear helps you sleep at night. There are some days where it is hard to get work to pay the bills.

There was a time in Riverside County when real estate prices were dropping 4 percent per month. During that time, Bruce was happy to be able to sit patiently on the sidelines until opportunity presented itself. The market does not come out of a recession as fast as people expect, so if sales are going slow, be patient.

Right now is a great time to buy. The affordability index is looking great. If the credit market loosens up, we will have many buyers returning to the market. Unfortunately, the real estate market has some scars from the down turn, and those scars take time to heal. In times like these, when people are afraid to enter the market because of the cash they lost in the down turn, you can make a lot of money from conquering your fear.

Every one is trying to catch the bottom of the market, but that is just as difficult as catching the top. You should be happy with just being able to buy a property that cashflows well. There is a good chance that prices will go up in the next ten years. John was able to raise rent on all his properties this year without losing any renters.

John got into investing because he didn’t want a real job. Prior to investing, he had worked in retail and he had worked as a dishwasher in a restaurant. He knew there were jobs that required hard work and less money, but he wanted something that required less work and was more lucrative. He got his real estate license in college, and he sold an apartment building that he was managing. He used the check from that sale to start his investing career.

John prefers to buy and hold over buy and sell. Buying and holding a property does not require as much skill as buying and selling, because selling is a separate skill set. Also, you cannot be greedy with buying and selling; you have to be willing to accept a smaller profit from each property. Buying and holding requires patience. You have to wait for property values to increase over longer periods of time, and you need to have some sort of job to cover the bills while you are waiting. The properties that have made John the most money are the properties that he bought 30 to 40 years ago.

About ¾ of John’s properties are bought from private owners. John uses a variety of advertising methods. He doesn’t believe you can adequately rely on one method. John keeps track of properties for sale in neighborhoods where he owns properties. He lives in a city with a population of about 50,000, and he has about 12 neighborhoods within 10 minutes of his office. On a daily basis, John looks for empty houses and signs of distress within those neighborhoods. He also talks to neighbors about other people who might be interested in selling. John has not used direct mail or newspaper advertising for many years, but he did do this in the beginning of his career to create leads.

John’s ideal rental property is located within a well established neighborhood, has nice landscaping and is near to good schools. These neighborhoods tend to be more pricy. In order to buy that kind of property, you have to buy far below market value, or you must have a large down payment to decrease your monthly payments. John will not buy a house unless he can gain a positive cash flow from it. John’s ideal home typically sells for $300,000 to $400,000, and he tries to buy them for about $200,000. Those homes usually rent for about $1,550 per month.

If John was a beginning investor, he would look for a less expensive house. It is harder to make an expensive house cash flow, and they require larger down payments. Cheaper homes are sometimes not very pretty, but every house is someone’s dream house. For someone who lives under a bridge or inside a trailer, an ugly house may seem wonderful. There is money to be made even on less desirable properties. Generally, the people selling those homes are anxious to get rid of them, and the people who are interested in buying those homes are really happy to just have a house. John has sold hundreds of houses like this to young families who were willing to put in some sweat equity. John has been involved with Habitat for Humanity for years. Habitat for Humanity helps people get into a house with a small down payment. Because those people have to work their way into those homes, they value their homes more and they are more likely to be successful.

John was mentored by Warren Harding. He was a real estate salesman and a great teacher. When John first started taking classes, he couldn’t imagine that he would get his money’s worth out of the classes he was taking. He eventually realized that the $200 dollars he spent on his education gave him ideas that were worth millions. John still enjoys taking and teaching classes. The excitement of being able to learn new ideas to make money with keeps John motivated.

One of the benefits of being a teacher is that you have a bank of students that come up with their own investing ideas. Some of John’s students have come up with ideas that they have been able to use profitably.

John and his friend Jack Miller began teaching real estate in the 1970s. He was teaching a real estate law class at a local college for people interested in getting their real estate license. Later, he started teaching classes on investing in classes. He currently teaches about 4 times every year. He enjoys seeing people “light up” when he shows them how to make money. John teaches to a repetitive group. He teaches with Peter Fortunato and Jim Napier.

The first time Bruce taught, a man approached him saying, “I really need to figure this out, because my wife has cancer and I can’t afford the treatment.” Education can make a big difference in someone’s life.

When John’s father was in his 60s, he got his retirement benefit statement, and discovered that it wasn’t enough to retire. John was able to help him buy 4 houses. They sold one, and his father kept the other 3. That significantly improved his retirement income. John believes he teaches life changing material. If you follow good advice and find good teachers, you can not only help yourself but other people as well.

The title of John’s course is Making it Big on Little Deals. There are many seminars that try to teach people how to retire on one big deal. Those seminars are very popular, but they are impractical. The slow route has a much higher rate of success. Big deals have big risk. When you buy a highly valuable piece of property, there is a good chance that you will be negotiating with someone smarter than you. You have a major negotiating advantage when you are buying from homeowners, and when you are selling to people who want your house. If you are selling and buying from wealthy people, you need to be very good.

You can buy a house with a relatively small amount of money, but if you buy a bigger property like an apartment, then you had better have a reserve of cash, because something will probably go wrong along the way. If a house is empty for a couple months, you can probably survive. If an apartment is empty for a couple months, there is a good chance you won’t survive. One of the lessons Bruce has learned is to always have a reserve of cash. Having monthly cash flow and a reserve of money allows him to make sane investing decisions. When you have extra cash, you can analyze the market and determine whether or not it is a good time to buy or sell. Also, having extra money puts you into a good negotiating position, because you don’t have to buy or sell. You can just make deals that are good for you, rather than being forced into a deal because you need some quick cash.

Bruce knows some people that lost a lot during the down turn. Some of those people are in make up mode during a time that is difficult to make money. That is dangerous. John believes you need to have a good long term plan. If you buy today and don’t plan to sell for 10 years, then you don’t care about price drops that might occur within the next couple years. This allows you to patiently wait until prices come back to a desirable selling point.

Bruce and John will be teaching together for the first time on November 5th and 6th. Jon will be focusing on how to buy in today’s market. One thing that John does differently from Bruce is he uses a lot of owner financing. He will be teaching people how to buy properties without going to banks and hard money lenders. You cannot cash flow with a hard money loan, because you need a better interest rate, but hard money loans are good for buying and selling. With interest rates this low, owner financing is vey reasonable. John is getting loans for 15 years at 4%.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 10/13/10

Wednesday, October 13th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

Mortgage application volume increased 14.6% this week. All 50 state attorney generals are now involved in an investigation into lenders that filed faulty foreclosure affidavits. The FHFA is urging GSEs to accelerate the foreclosure process once the AG reviews are over. Foreign investors are planning to purchase large amounts of commercial property.

In The News:

Mortgage Bankers Association“Mortgage Refinance Applications Jump as Rates Continue to Fall in Latest MBA Weekly Survey” (10-13-10)

“The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 8, 2010. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 14.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 14.8 percent compared with the previous week.”

NAR - “NAR Says Families Will Suffer if Foreclosure Freeze Continues” (10-13-10)

“Thousands of first-time and move-up buyers who hoped to make a foreclosed property their new home now face uncertainty, anxiety and possibly remorse as they worry that closing on their desired property could be in jeopardy. For many, the dream of homeownership could turn into agony if their home purchase is indefinitely delayed by a moratorium on foreclosures declared by some banks, the National Association of Realtors® said today.”

Los Angeles Times“California to join multistate inquiry of foreclosures by banks” (10-13-10)

“California will join a multistate investigation into whether banks violated laws by cutting corners while foreclosing on homes as the Obama administration made clear Tuesday that it would not support a nationwide moratorium.”

Housing Wire“Jaime Dimon: ‘Almost no chance we made a mistake’ with foreclosures” (10-13-10)

“JPMorgan Chase said new processes are being put in place to ensure it fulfills all procedural requirements going forward. ‘There’s almost no chance we made a mistake,’ Jaime Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, said during the conference call.”

Housing Wire“It’s official: All 50 state AGs to review foreclosures” (10-13-10)

“Alabama Attorney General Troy King announced Wednesday he is joining the other 49 AG offices in a nationwide investigation into lenders that filed faulty foreclosure affidavits.”

Housing Wire“St. Louis Fed economist questions wisdom of more quantitative easing” (10-13-10)

“An economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis wonders if additional large-scale securities purchases by the Fed will produce the desired effects of driving down interest rates, boosting employment, and preventing deflation.”

Housing Wire“FHFA urges GSE servicers to accelerate foreclosure process after reviews” (10-13-10)

“On Oct. 1, DeMarco said Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are working with their third-party servicers to identify any loans that may be have been foreclosed improperly. On Wednesday, FHFA urged servicers to proceed on foreclosures as quickly as possible after all foreclosure alternatives have been exhausted.”

Bloomberg - “Investors Target U.S. Commercial Properties After Drop in Values, DTZ Says” (10-13-10)

“Commercial-property investors are preparing to spend more in the U.S. next year after more than two years of declining values, DTZ Group Plc said. Funds and investment companies increased the capital available for deals in the Americas by 54 percent since December to $97 billion, the London-based real-estate broker said in a report today. Most of this will be used for U.S. transactions.”

Bloomberg - “Banks to Shift From `Extend and Pretend’ in Real Estate Loans, Survey Says” (10-13-10)

“Lenders will shift toward amending commercial mortgages next year instead of extending maturities, leading to increased sales of distressed real estate, according to a survey of almost 900 property professionals. More than 63 percent of those surveyed said they expect maturing loans to be modified, while 7.1 percent said loans will continue without changes to defer losses, a practice known as ‘extend and pretend.’ About 16 percent of respondents said real estate with maturing loans will be foreclosed on and put on the market, and almost 14 percent said properties will be sold by borrowers, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP said in a report today.”\

Looking Back:

One year ago, Fitch reported that 60 percent of borrowers from 06 to 07 had negative equity and owed more than their homes are worth. Interthinx’s Mortgage Fraud Index estimated that fraud decreased by 4 percent from Q1 to Q2 of 2009, but increased by 7 percent from Q2 of 2008. Statistics from MDA DataQuick showed that Southern California home sales increased by 5 percent from October of 2008.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor event calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

195-TNG Radio – I Survived Real Estate 2010 10-09-10

Friday, October 8th, 2010

I Survived Real Estate 2010

I Survived Real Estate 2010


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September 17th, 2010, The Norris Group returns with its award winning event I Survived Real Estate 2010. The video also now available on The Norris Group website.

The Norris Group has assembled an incredible line up of industry experts to discuss the state of REO from the inside. Topics will include regulatory intervention and aftermath, bulk buying, myths and facts, and opportunities emerging for real estate professionals. 100 percent of the proceeds support the Orange County affiliate of Susan G. Komen for the Cure. This event would not be possible without generous help from the following platinum partners: Foreclosure Radar and Sean O’Toole, the San Diego Creative Real Estate Investors Association and Bill Tan, Investors Workshops and Shawn Watkins and Angel Bronsgeest, Invest Club for Women and Iris Veneracion and Bobby Alexander, Claudia Buys Houses, The Business Press, Frye Wiles, MVT Productions, and White House Catering.

This week The Norris Group Real Estate Radio Show is broadcasting I Survived Real Estate 2010.

We are in a bond bubble. This is what concerns Thornberg the most right now. We had a recent GDP revision. Savings rates are close to where they should be. Employment is flat, but incomes are growing. The panic over a double dip this summer was ridiculous. We are on a path to recovery, but we have created so much fear that we now have a bond bubble. We have ridiculously low rates. The spreads between returns on equities and returns on bonds have never been this wide. Either equities are severely underpriced or bonds are severely overpriced. Thornberg believes the bonds are overpriced, and eventually people will figure that out. If rates shoot up quickly, then we will have a big problem.

Real estate affordability is incredible right now. If interest rates went up to normal levels then affordability would go back to normal levels as well. Interest rates could spike from inflation, fears over the federal deficit, or if a sovereign debt crisis in Europe causes risk rates to increase. The problem is that we are relying too much on low interest rates right now.

Joseph Magdziarz spoke next. Despite the problems Joseph’s industry has had with appraisal companies, his industry has experienced growth. Appraisers had some success with getting legislation passed, such as bill 4173. When October 18th passes, AMCs will have to pay appraisers reasonable fees. Traditionally, when the AMCs have been used, they took all the money from the appraisers. Not all AMCs are bad, but some of them took advantage of people. AMCs were a risk to consumers, because consumers weren’t receiving the best appraisers.

When Joseph is asked to appear before congress, they usually have specific issues they want addressed. These issues are usually related to consumers.

Sean O’Toole was asked to give his perspective on whether or not we’ve done a good job of solving the real estate problem. The Fed has kept a balance sheet on the U.S. and it’s households. We went from $4.5 trillion of mortgage debt in the year 2,000 to $10.5 trillion at the peak. If you look at the number of new homes added, and the increases in income, we should not have gone about $6.5 trillion. That means there is $4 trillion in excess mortgage debt. Sean believes that in the best case, we have only dealt with $0.5 trillion of that excess debt. We have a long way to go before real estate is healthy again.

Sean wrote an article called Foreclosure Roulette: A Game of Extend and Pretend. Sean does not believe that the current levels of REO inventory accurately reflect the delinquency levels. We had foreclosures moving equally with delinquencies until 2008. That was when Paulson said that we shouldn’t force banks to sell these assets in distressed markets.

Currently, our REO statistics do not mean a lot. We have been bouncing around in a range that has nothing to do with delinquencies. The FDIC has loosened up on forcing lenders to get bad assets off their books. Since we changed these rules, foreclosures have stalled.

The treasury has admitted that their strategy for dealing with foreclosures was to not allow them to come out at once. They wanted to slow the process down. A new program is coming out in Fall, which will incentivize banks to write down principals on mortgages. That may have some success. Thornberg believes there will be 3 to 4 million foreclosures coming out. Sean O’Toole believes there will be more than 4 million.

Sean believes these new programs are causing problems. These programs are meant to continue the “extend and pretend” strategy. The government is telling us “hold on, we have HAMP to solve the problem”. HAMP had design flaws from the beginning, and Sean does not believe it was intended to be successful. The government then came out and said, “Hold on, we have HAFA”. HAFA also had design flaws. It was not intended to be successful. Sean will not be fooled by HAMP’s new principal balance reduction. Fannie Mae claimed it would damage people that strategically default.

The average foreclosure in California is $150,000 dollars upside down on a $250,000 house by the time it reaches the courthouse steps. The banks and the government do not want people making the right decision for themselves by walking away. This is why Fannie Mae recently encouraged banks to push through foreclosures. The banks are not actually going to push through foreclosures, but they want people to think they will, so that they won’t strategically default.

Tommy Williams does not understand how we can give principal reductions to people who were irresponsible, but give nothing to the people who were responsible. This will not work in a capitalistic society. Tommy believes that Bruce’s idea was fantastic. Right now, the average American can afford a $150,000 home. However, people are trying to sell their home for over $300,000. All the mortgages in the United States that were selling for over $300,000 equate for 5% of the market. Right now, they are still selling homes for above affordable rates, and they are building homes that are still too big.

After 1992, we built 75% of what we needed for our population growth. The biggest problem is that we’ve been building big homes in the Inland Empire, but what we really need is lower rent apartments closer to urban areas. We are going to need more housing in 2011 and 2012, but not bigger homes. If builders still to smaller town houses, then they could make a living. However, if they do that, the builders will have to deal with zoning boards, local governments who are cashed strapped who want you to fix their streets, sewers, power lines and their pensions.

In 2008, there was very little capital available for commercial properties and there was little liquidity. In 2009, some of those capital sources started coming back. We have more capital available to us today, than we have had over the last 2 years. The problem is that many properties do not qualify for financing. Some properties have leasing issues, and no one will finance those. Most of those nonperforming properties are still in the hands of the owners. The banks will not foreclose on those properties, because they do not have the ability to write those properties down. We are starting to see the banks make progress now, because the Fed is giving the banks 0% interest rates on loans. The 0% interest allows the banks to make a small profit, which allows them to then foreclose on those properties. Dealing with this extended process is going to take even longer, because no one is putting a gun to the banks’ heads.

In the 90s, the rules were different. The FDIC forced lenders to give a notice of default if someone is 100 days delinquent.

In 2012, many commercial maturities will come due. A lot of that debt is from commercial mortgage backed securities. That debt is being held by bond holders. That debt will not be refinanced. A lot of non-refinancable loans are being pushed out for 2 years. CMBS is coming back, but values are not coming back. In 2006 -2007, we made 80% loans on an inflated value. Those properties may be 60 to 70% of what it was in 2007, but it still has a loan worth 110% to value. Just because we have money available to refinance doesn’t mean we can, because we don’t have the values we need.

Thornberg believes that if the people who own this debt just “close their eyes and hold their nose” until 2014, then they will be ok. Daniel says that is just the game that these debt holders are hoping on, but it may not work.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 9/30/10

Thursday, September 30th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

The loan limit guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Housing Administration will stay at the current level until the end of 2011. The average rate for 30-year fixed loans fell to 4.32 percent, according to Freddie Mac. The Labor Department’s weekly survey shows jobless claims fell 3.5%. RealtyTrac reports foreclosure sales increased 4.9% in the 2nd quarter.

In The News:

Mortgage Bankers Association“Commercial/Multifamily Real Estate Fundamentals Show Firmer Stabilization in Second Quarter 2010″ (9-30-10)

“The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Commercial Real Estate/Multifamily Finance Quarterly DataBook for the second quarter of 2010. The analysis shows that commercial real estate fundamentals are showing signs of a firmer stabilization as businesses eased job cuts and started to hire, consumers began to re-open their pocketbooks and as households increasingly looked to rent rather than own their homes.”

Mercury News“Mortgages: Congress holds conforming loan limits at nearly $730,000″ (9-30-10)

“Congress has extended a policy that allows homeowners in pricey real estate markets to secure government-backed mortgages of nearly $730,000. Lawmakers have voted to keep the maximum size of loans guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and the Federal Housing Administration at the current level through the end of 2011.”

Mortgage Bankers Association“MBA Commends Extension of Loan Limits and Increase in FHA Multifamily Commitment Authority” (9-30-10)

“Extending the existing limits is essential to helping borrowers continue to have access to affordable long-term, fixed-rate mortgage credit in today’s struggling economy.  The current limits have been a key component of keeping the mortgage market functioning, helping keep mortgage interest rates low for consumers who want to purchase a home or refinance an existing mortgage.”

San Francisco Chronicle“Mortgage rates match low of 4.32 percent” (9-30-10)

“Mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday the average rate for 30-year fixed loans fell to 4.32 percent, the lowest on records dating back to 1971. That’s down from 4.37 percent the previous week and equal to the average rate reached four weeks ago.”

Los Angeles Times“Prices rise for homes in foreclosure or sold by banks” (9-30-10)

“In the second quarter, 248,534 U.S. properties were sold by banks or by owners who had fallen into foreclosure, RealtyTrac of Irvine said. That was an increase of 4.9% from the previous quarter, but a 20.1% decline from the same quarter last year, when discounted bank-owned homes flooded the market.”

Housing Wire“Weekly jobless claims down 3.5%” (9-30-10)

“Initial jobless claims fell 3.5% last week to 453,000, which is at the level last seen at the beginning of the month and lower than most analysts’ estimates. The Labor Department said the unadjusted figure of actual initial claims for the week ended Sept. 25 decreased by 16,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 469,000.”

Housing Wire“GDP growth softens to 1.7% in 2Q” (9-30-10)

“The U.S. real gross domestic product, which is the output of goods and services by labor and property, increased at an annual rate of 1.7% in the second quarter, according to the third estimate from the Commerce Department.”

Housing Wire“Senate confirms Yellen as Fed vice chairman” (9-30-10)

“Janet Yellen is the new vice chairman of the Federal Reserve board, as the Senate unanimously confirmed her appointment Wednesday.”

Bloomberg - “JPMorgan Asks Judges to Delay Rulings as It Reviews Foreclosure Documents” (9-30-10)

“JPMorgan Chase & Co., the third- biggest U.S. mortgage servicer, said it’s asking courts to delay judgments in pending foreclosure cases while the bank reviews and possibly resubmits statements. JPMorgan began to ‘systematically re-examine’ foreclosure filings after learning that employees may have signed affidavits without personally reviewing underlying records, relying instead on other personnel”

Looking Back:

One year ago, Experian and Wyman estimated that the number of strategic defaults in 2008 were up to 600,000. Senators were supporting legislation to lend 200 million dollars for the prosecution of mortgage and real estate fraud cases.  The MBA reported that the mortgage loan application volume decreased by 2.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis. Freddie Mac announced that it would work with Titanium Solutions to do door-to-door loan modifications.

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 9/29/10

Wednesday, September 29th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

The MBA’s weekly survey shows mortgage application volume decreased 0.8%. Fannie Mae’s mortgage portfolio increased 3.8% year over year. Harvey Rosenblum of the Dallas Fed predicts the recovery will be long and slow. Witten Advisors reports more people are moving to multifamily housing.

In The News:

NAHB - “Housing Tax Incentives Benefit Younger Households the Most, According to Recent NAHB Research” (9-28-10)

“New research from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reveals that the benefits of housing-related tax deductions, such as the mortgage interest deduction, generally decline in value as individuals age.”

Mortgage Bankers Association“Mortgage Refinance Applications Decrease Despite Decline in Rates in Latest MBA Weekly Survey” (9-29-10)

“The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 24, 2010.  The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 0.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.  On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1.0 percent compared with the previous week.”

Housing Wire“It’s time: House opens the floor for testimony on future of GSEs” (9-29-10)

“Written testimony started to be released yesterday evening, with Michael Heid, Co-President of Wells Fargo Home Mortgage and Michael Farrell, CEO of Annaly Capital Management providing previews of their written testimony. Both will argue for a highly diminished role of the GSEs in the secondary markets.”

Housing Wire“Fannie Mae mortgage portfolio continues expansion, up 3.8% in August” (9-29-10)

“While Fannie Mae issuance declined in August, the government-sponsored enterprise’s gross mortgage portfolio increased 3.8% from a year ago. The Fannie Mae gross mortgage portfolio reached $809.1 billion in August, up 3.8% from $779.4 billion a year ago. It did drop at a compound annualized rate of 4.1% in August.”

Housing Wire“Dallas Fed: Economy still at tender stage with low inflation a concern” (9-29-10)

“‘It is going to be a long, slow recovery,’ said Harvey Rosenblum, executive vice president and director of research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. In fact, it doesn’t yet feel like the recession has ended for many because of the slow growth. Rosenblum spoke at a real estate symposium sponsored by the North Dallas Chamber of Commerce.”

Housing Wire - “US Treasury plans to sell Citi preferred stock” (9-29-10)

“The U.S. Department of the Treasury announced today intentions to sell trust preferred securities (TRUPS) it acquired from Citigroup (C: 3.92 +0.97%) during the bailout in 2009. The sale will constitute a complete net profit gain under the Asset Guarantee Program. Citi will not receive any of the proceeds.”

Housing Wire“Witten Advisors: Multifamily sector gets boost as move-ins rise” (9-29-10)

“If there is a beneficiary in the real estate downturn, it has been the multifamily sector, according to a market firm that studies the space. Net move-ins, nationally, in the second quarter, are higher than they have been in the past 15 years when comparing on a second-quarter basis, said Ron Witten, president of Witten Advisors, a Dallas-based consultancy that serves apartment developers, investors and lenders nationally with a focus on 40 major apartment markets.”

Orange County Register“Forecast: O.C. home prices up 2.2% in year” (9-29-10)

“Orange County home prices will rise 2.2% in the year ended September 2011, according to the latest forecast from housing tracker Veros from Santa Ana.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, C.A.R.’s sales and price report showed that single-family home sales increased 9 percent in August. The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home price index showed that prices were down 13.3 percent from 2008, but declines have slowed. Fannie Mae announced that the number of homes behind on payment or in foreclosure had increased by 4.17 percent. Also, FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair proposed that the agency should get banks to prepay three years of fees to help cover the cost of bank failures, expecting a $100-billion cleanup bill through 2013.

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 9/13/10

Monday, September 13th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

Many predictions are being made regarding the economy and the housing market. Most of the articles have an overall positive outlook on the economy, while most had a negative outlook for the housing market. New delinquencies decreased 8.5% in August. The FDIC said 119 banks failed so far this year.

In The News:

CNBC - “No Double Dip, Stimulus Did Help: IMF Chief” (9-13-10)

“There is unlikely to be a double-dip recession, while the fact that stimulus spending was helpful in containing the crisis is undisputable, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), told CNBC Monday.”

Housing Wire“Economist calls latest Basel 3 timeline ‘nonsense’” (9-13-10)

“The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision adopted new standards for the capital requirements of the world’s largest financial firms, mandating the banks hold capital equal to 7% of assets. As HousingWire reported in the Monday Morning Cup of Coffee, the committee increased the minimum common-equity requirement to 4.5% from 2% and stipulated banks hold a capital conservation buffer of 2.5% to withstand potential stress, raising the total common-equity requirement to 7%.”

Housing Wire“Radian’s new delinquencies drop 8.5% in August” (9-13-10)

“Mortgage servicers reported 9,084 in new delinquent loans insured by Radian Group (RDN: 7.865 +3.49%), a mortgage insurer based in Philadelphia. It’s an 8.5% drop from the 9,930 of newly delinquent loans for Radian in July. Radian’s primary inventory of delinquent mortgages did fall to 137,374 in August, too, down from 138,015 delinquent mortgages in July.”

Housing Wire“REITs outperform Barclays expectations, long term outlook positive” (9-13-10)

“Real estate investment trusts (REITs) outperformed analyst expectations in the first quarter of 2010, according to a weekly report released today by Barclays Capital. Week-over-week, the National Association of Realtors’ (NAR) composite REIT return index dropped 0.9% to 3,153.3. Despite the decrease, the index is 0.9% higher than one month ago and 33.7% higher than one year ago. The composite return index year-to-date is up 17.2% from 2,690.1 for the same period last year.”

Housing Wire“JPMorgan analysts bearish on housing recovery” (9-13-10)

“JPMorgan Chase (JPM: 41.20 +3.62%) analysts lowered estimates for a recovery in the housing market between next year and 2014 because the expiration of the homebuyer tax credit slowed demand and overall economic malaise pushed some indicators lower in July.”

Housing Wire“BofA’s Moynihan see 25% chance of double dip recession” (9-13-10)

“The discussion now is whether we might have a so-called double dip recession – although our experts think the chance of that is low… we’re now putting the chances of a double-dip at around 25%.”

Housing Wire“Monday Morning Cup of Coffee” (9-13-10)

“At June 30, Horizon Bank had total assets of $187.8 million total deposits of $164.6 million. The FDIC said 119 bank have failed this year, including 23 in Florida. The FDIC recently said the number of banks on its “problem list” is at the highest level since 1993.”

Bloomberg - “U.S. Accelerates in 2011 as Demise of Consumer Is Exaggerated” (9-13-10)

“Debt payments as a share of disposable income fell to 12.46 percent in the first quarter from a peak of 13.96 percent in 2008 and are about in line with the 12.09 percent average of the last 30 years, based on Federal Reserve data. Berner sees the ratio falling to what he considers a sustainable range of 11 percent to 12 percent by year-end. This improvement will help the U.S. economy avoid a relapse into recession and put it on course for 3 percent growth next year, he said. The economy grew 1.6 percent in the second quarter.”

Bloomberg - “Fannie, Freddie Regulator Blames Mortgage-Loan Pools for Poor Performance” (9-13-10)

“Mortgage pools purchased as investments by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac during the housing boom included more risky and poor-performing loans than those guaranteed by the government-backed firms, their regulator said. So-called private-label securities bought by the two firms from 2001 through 2008 had a bigger share of mortgages with adjustable interest rates and more borrowers with credit scores below 660, two indicators of loans at higher risk of default, the Federal Housing Finance Agency said in a report today.”

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor event calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 6/14/10

Monday, June 14th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

Christopher Cagan from First American predicts a dip in housing prices in the near future. A study from Harvard University seems to show that high unemployment is fueling the foreclosure crisis. Christopher Thornberg of Beacon Economics believes the recession is currently over, but he expects economic conditions to get worse over the next two years. REIS Inc predicts U.S. apartments may lead a rebound in commercial real estate.

In The News:

Orange County Register – “‘Double dip’ decline seen for housing” (6-13-10)

“In the short to near term, I expect a double dip.  This is the logical aftermath of the sugar shot from the Federal first time buyer tax credit.  It borrowed buyers from the future, and we are now going into that future.  Also we are not too far from the end of the traditional SoCal buying season.  I have already seen asking prices reduced 5% or so in May from April.”

Wall Street Journal“Trading Down: Can It Still Bankroll Your Retirement?” (6-13-10)

“Trading down to a smaller home is a retirement-planning staple. According to an April study by the Society of Actuaries, 20% of not-yet retirees say they plan to downsize after the last child leaves the nest.”

Los Angeles Times - “Home shortages could develop as recovery unfolds” (6-13-10)

“A housing deficiency isn’t a sure thing, but the potential is certainly there, says David Crowe, chief economist at the National Assn. of Home Builders, who paints a rather ominous scenario in which house and apartment builders won’t be able to keep up with the demand. Wherever the new households come from — adult children moving out for the first time or leaving the nest a second or third time after returning to Mom and Dad’s to weather the economic storm, roommates uncoupling and going their separate ways or young couples starting families — most of them are typically renters. Therefore, the multifamily sector is apt to feel the pinch first, if only because it takes so much longer to build apartments than houses.”

Bloomberg - “U.S. Housing Market Recovery Dependent on Jobs Growth, Harvard Report Says” (6-14-10)

“Job growth will be the key factor in whether the U.S. real estate market can extend a recovery after the end of the federal homebuyer tax credit, according to a Harvard University study. High unemployment is fueling the foreclosure crisis and discouraging the household formation that drives property demand, according to the State of the Nation’s Housing report issued today by Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies.”

Housing Wire“Monday Morning Cup of Coffee” (6-14-10)

“The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) is preparing a nationwide crackdown on mortgage fraud, with arrests expected to count in the hundreds, beginning as early as this week, the Financial Times reported.”

Housing Wire“Negative GDP Growth in Q3? Really?” (6-14-10)

“Thornberg essentially noted in his speech that while the recession is over, for now, we’re not there yet in terms of a sustainable economic recovery. He exhorted attendees to enjoy 2010, as he expects the year to be a relatively good one compared to what we may see in 2011 and 2012.”

Housing Wire“Subprime Mortgage Performance Improving as Delinquencies Drop” (6-14-10)

“The performance of historical subprime mortgages is improving according to two separate reports from Moody’s Investors Service and the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS). And the rate of homeowners behind on their subprime mortgage is lower across all levels of days past due, albeit at different speeds.”

Housing Wire“Fiserv Sees Buyer ‘Optimism’ Behind Home Price Increases” (6-14-10)

“Home prices trended up in more than 40% of metropolitan areas (155 of 384 markets) in Q409, including markets in California, Ohio, Michigan and Washington DC, according to analysis of price trends by financial data services provider Fiserv. On average, home prices were down 2.5% in Q409 from the year-ago quarter, which Fiserv noted could be due to continued high unemployment levels, rising interest rates and a high volume of distressed property in markets like Florida, Arizona and Nevada. The data studied for the quarterly report is based on the Fiserv Case-Shiller Indexes.”

Bloomberg - “Equity Residential May Start California Project Within a Year” (6-14-10)

“Equity Residential, the largest publicly traded U.S. apartment landlord, may start building a new development in California within the next year, Chief Executive Officer David Neithercut said. U.S. apartments may lead a rebound in commercial real estate as the economy adds jobs, property research firm Reis Inc. said in May. Vacancies probably will peak at 8.2 percent in 2010 and start to decline in 2011.”

Orange County Register“Portola Hills homes quickest to sell” (6-14-10)

“The ‘hardest’ O.C. town to find a home to buy in terms of ‘market time’ (supply of homes for sale vs. new purchase deals inked in past month) is Portola Hills at 1.3 months to theoretically sell all for-sale homes at the current buying pace. Or, looking at it another way: quickest to sell. A year ago, this town was at 0.6 months.”

Orange County Register“Home demand off 20% without tax break” (6-14-10)

“March and April’s surge due to the housing credit robbed May and June of normal activity. There is nothing cyclical about the recent swings in demand, but it is making its way back to normal. It should be back on track by July. Demand, the number of new pending sales over the prior month, decreased by 136 in the past two weeks and now totals 3,167. That is after a 603 home drop two weeks ago. For the first time since March 2008, demand is less than the prior year with 485 fewer pending sales.”

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.