The Norris Group Blog

Today’s News Synopsis:

Research from the Office of Thrift Supervision and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency show that the number of U.S. homes in foreclosure have passed the 1-million mark. The NAR reports that existing homes sales increased by 7.4 percent in November. According to IHS Global Insight, U.S. home prices increased by 0.2 percent during the 3rd quarter of 2009. Barclay’s predicts that the unemployment rate will reduce to 9.1 percent by the end of 2010.

In The News:

Los Angeles Times – “More prime mortgages default in 3rd quarter” (12-22-09)

“For the first quarter ever, the number of homes in foreclosure with mortgages serviced by U.S. national banks and savings and loans topped the 1-million mark, according to figures released Monday by the Office of Thrift Supervision and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. The percentage of prime borrowers whose loans were 60 or more days past due doubled from the July-to-September period a year earlier. And more than half of all homeowners whose payments had been lowered through modification plans defaulted again.”

NAR - “Another Big Gain in Existing-Home Sales as Buyers Respond to Tax Credit” (12-22-09)

“Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – rose 7.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 6.54 million units in November from 6.09 million in October, and are 44.1 percent higher than the 4.54 million-unit pace in November 2008. Current sales remain at the highest level since February 2007 when they hit 6.55 million.”

Housing Wire – “Treasury Spends $4.1bn on Affordable Housing Programs” (12-22-09)

“The amount of American Recovery and Reinvestment Act funds distributed to state agencies to promote affordable housing is running at nearly $4.1bn after the latest round of payouts, the Treasury Department said.”

Press Enterprise – “Local, national retail hiring still sluggish” (12-22-09)

“According to an analysis of Labor Department data by the Chicago-based outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, the U.S. retail sector grew by a net 321,300 jobs in November, for an increase of 37 percent from November 2008. In the Inland region, the California Employment Development Department reported last week, the net gain of 550 retail jobs in November marked a 3.6 percent bump from the prior month, but the total retail workforce of 157,800 was actually down 5.5 percent from a year ago.”

Housing Wire – “Housing Prices End Two-Year Skid, says IHS Global Insight” (12-22-09)

“The two-year slide in US housing prices ended in Q309 and increased 0.2% over the previous quarter, according to a quarterly report form IHS Global Insight, a provider of economic and financial analysis. Although prices increased on a national average, 161 of the top 330 metropolitan areas had declines in prices, but it’s still an improvement from Q408 when prices dropped in 317 metro areas.”

Housing Wire – “FHFA Home Price Index Up 0.6% in October” (12-22-09)

“US housing prices increased 0.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis from September to October, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA) monthly house price index. The increase comes after the FHFA adjusted the index’s August to September reading from no change to a 0.4% decline. For the 12 months ending in October, prices fell 1.9%. The index is 10.8% below its April 2007 peak.”

Housing Wire – “BarCap: Commercial Real Estate Demand to Start Back This Summer” (12-22-09)

“according to Barclay’s report on the 2010 outlook for commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), the labor market is showing encouraging signs in recent months, which is the best indication of growing demand in commercial space. Barclay’s analysts forecast “sustained positive job growth” beginning in Q110 and an addition of 2.3m jobs by the end of the year. This translates to a 9.1% unemployment rate at the end of 2010, which is not yet healthy but a sign of recovery.”

Housing Wire – “Securitization Systematic Risk to Lessen in 2010, Barclays Says” (12-22-09)

“Due to the ‘herculean’ and ‘unprecedented’ efforts of myriad Fed bailouts, Barclays Capital is reporting that, going into the New Year, the systemic risk posed by the securitized markets will be much lower, although the agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market remains a concern.”

Bloomberg - “Mortgage-Bond Yields Jump to 4-Month High, Boosting Loan Rates” (12-22-09)

“Yields on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage securities climbed to the highest in four months, signaling interest rates on new home loans may extend a rebound from record lows this month and blunt a housing recovery.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, policy makers were considering the abolition of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Foresight Analytics estimated that $530 billion in commercial mortgages were due for refinancing over the next three years. CIRB reported that the number of construction permits being pulled increased by 8 percent from the previous month. The pace of existing home sales decreased by 10.6 percent from 2007 to 2008.