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254-TNGRadio – I Survived Real Estate 2011 part 7 12-03-11

Friday, December 2nd, 2011

I Survived Real Estate 2011

I Survived Real Estate 2011


(Full Bio)

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On October 14, 2011, The Norris Group returned with its award-winning event I Survived Real Estate. An expert line-up of industry specialists joined Bruce Norris to discuss current industry regulation, head-scratching legislation, and the opportunities emerging for savvy real estate professionals. 100% of the proceeds support the Orange County Affiliate of Susan G. Komen for the Cure. This event would not have been possible without the generous help of the following platinum partners: ForeclosureRadar and Sean O’Toole, Housing Wire, the San Diego Creative Real Estate Investors Association and President Bill Tan, Investors Workshops with President Shawn Watkins and Angel Bronsgeest, Invest Club for Women and Iris Veneracion and Bobbie Alexander, San Jose Real Estate Investors Association and Geraldine Berry, Real Wealth Networks, Frye Wyles, MVT Productions, and White House Catering. The event video can be found on isurvived2011.com.

Bruce continued the discussion on risk-taking. Debra said you have a lot of uncertainty in the lending community right now waiting for regulation and waiting to understand the government’s role. Doug said he had been surveying 1,000 people a month for 16 months and publishes the report on his website, so he asks what their expectation is on interest rates and prices. In the most recent quarter, Fannie Mae also asked them what they thought about stability when it came to unemployment. 26% of the people who were employed were worried about not being able to stay employed. 9% of the people in the workforce are already unemployed, so you have over one-third of the workforce that is concerned about the base ability to pay anything. When you look at their expectation that interest rates are going to be essentially flat for the next two years, they expect house prices to fall during that time period. They are essentially asking, “Why would you tell us that right now is a good time to go out and borrow $200,000 and buy a house?” There is a lot of discussion about the HARP Program and why people are not considering this.

If you think about the practical aspect of what the household faces, you have to consider that they are asked to bring $4-$6,000 to the table. If they are worried about being unemployed in 6 months, they are essentially saying, “If the payback is $200 a month in savings, and it is a couple years before I receive the money back, what if in 6 months I don’t have a job?” So if you say you understand it, it makes sense, and you now need to roll it into the principle; it doesn’t sound like a good deal because you are asking me to take on extra leverage. So to the customer, at the end of the day there is a question of stable employment that is equally big to the supply of properties they have to work off still. That is as much a macroeconomic issue to Debra Still’s point about the uncertainty as it is about housing because the engine for job growth is small business. When small businesses are surveyed, the number one reason they say they are not hiring people is lack of sales. The number two reason is uncertainty about the tax and regulatory environment. Until macro-policy makers get back to focusing on what makes a good investment market for businesses to go into and hire people, we will most likely have a concentric circle between housing and the aforementioned problem. This means we need to reduce regulation and stop making every tax code have to be renewed every two years. We need to make some permanent decisions on whether you are going to advantage or disadvantage investment so that entrepreneurs have a clear view on whether they will be able to retain the capital gains that they make by investing in their business. These kinds of things have to be put in place to give it a strong investment environment, which will then lead to employment.

Eric Janzen reinforced Doug’s point by saying we have a general problem with under-investment in our economy. This means there is not enough capital going into investment versus consumption. The result of that is we are not planting seed corn in the housing market. This is also true in venture capital as is the case with a precipitous drop-off in early-stage companies, which are the companies that provide most of the jobs and all the growth as well as the exports and all the good things that come with it. It really comes down to what Doug said that we have to make investment decisions very clear and stop disadvantaging investment. Bruce wondered what the likelihood was of this happening in the next year. Eric said this was not a good year for these types of decisions, so the safest bet you can make is to assume nothing is going to happen in the next year. Doug said you would not get a better return on a bet than you would on investing.

Bruce asked what was standing in the way of letting investors participate more fully in taking the inventory down. At times in the past we had a 203k loan program that was available as well as more generous loans available to investors, but this ended in about 1995. Debra Still said the Mortgage Bankers Association supports relooking at the 203k program with some incremental safeguards versus the prior program. She said they would support clearing a lot of the inventory. Bruce said this would take care of one level, but there were people at I Survived Real Estate who would not want to go through the journey of that loan but would buy something as a rental; keep it for a long time, and do it in good size quantity. He wondered if there was any discussion on a deed restriction. Debra said one of the recommendations on the RFI that the MBI made was a 3-5 year whole provision. One of the things we have to consider is moving the extra inventory and look at investors to make it happen.

Bruce wondered about how the person who purchases, for example, 20 houses would fix them up and keep them. A company that buys 1,000 will probably try to make them livable, but this is not as helpful as making it nice. This is why the nothing-down program intrigues Bruce. Right now you have a chance to get people in at a very safe payment that is fixed. Later on when we have to pay more taxes, which we will, we will have room in our budget because that payment will seem like a car payment. However, if you don’t let people in, their rent payment is always going to approximate market. We are not going to give somebody a 30-year fixed rent rate. If you had people buying something at no-down at 4%, eventually you would have price support and would get rid of the inventory. Sean said if we could sell every house tomorrow at full-market value, it would crash the system. Doug reiterated saying the big picture problem is that at the end of the day someone will not be paid. It is just like the Greece situation. The political system is good at doling out benefits, but it is poor at doling out costs. A lot of what is happening is instead of the broad-based principle write-downs, which is something that could fix a lot of problems, we have adverse selection and an unfair distribution of results based on decisions made in households. Things are costly politically in addition to financially. There are some discussions of things which are small costs.

For example, some ideas have been floated about tax forgiveness for investors who would get a 3-year abatement of taxes on the rents that they receive if they were to invest in a property today. What this does is raise the rate of return to them, which in turn raises the bid price which they could be willing to put into the market and reduce losses to the institution which holds the loan. There is still a loss, but it is incremental and not as visible. It is actually moving some of the inventory. Therefore, you will most likely see a lot of program proposals and capital gains release. Debra said some of the recommendations are Fannie and Freddie looking at investor properties and making small incremental improvements to the HARP Program, which would include investors owning more than the limit of ten properties. This would also allow for higher LTVs or other loans after 2009. Principle write-downs are very challenging for mortgage lenders. You have to ask whether the tax payer is going to pay, the bank will pay, or will the investor pay. As Doug said, somebody is going to pay the bill.

Bruce wondered about the idea of refinancing owner-occupant or investor over encumbered mortgage. He wondered why we cannot simply refinance them at the current rate, whatever the LTV is. You have the loan anyway, so why can’t you just make it make sense so that people will be able to write out the loan. He wondered what the point was of having a 6% mortgage that is not getting paid when you could have a 3.5% mortgage that would. Debra said this is certainly one of the things on the list to discuss. One of the things we also need to consider is if you think about the capacity of the industry and the fact that the large depositories have a good portion of the properties, it would take the whole industry to participate to help move this big “elephant” through the system. Most lenders who do not already own the mortgage are going to want rep and warrant relief. The question is why a lender who does not already own a loan on an underwater property would make a deal unless they had some kind of rep and warrant relief. This is a big deal for part of the discussion.

Bruce also wondered about the idea of principle-only payments to get people back to an even level. Debra said if the loan is in a security, then the servicer has to advance principle and interest to the investor. The principle-only is still going to create a negative gap for whoever the servicer is because they are advancing to the investor principle and interest each month. Bruce wondered if the investor can make a new agreement, say he is going to lose a lot of money if the money does not get paid. Doug said he does not think there is anything that prevents two private parties who have a contract from reworking the contract. Sean wondered if it could trigger some CDO risk. You have to talk about the derivative risk and potentially magnifying losses. This was a problem years ago, and people have still not tried to go in and figure out how big the derivative risk is and where it lies. Debra said you have to wonder what you would do with mortgage liquidity if investors have to take the principle write-downs. The question is who is going to invest in mortgage-backed securities in the future, and what do you do to the future liquidity of the industry with some of the dramatic actions. Eric said if you look at the market data, the market has been continuing to decline. It spiked from about $300 billion to $1.2 billion, but the latest numbers show it’s back down to about $400 billion. You can exactly identify the point at which the market started to fall in the financial crisis. That market is probably not coming back for a long time until there is market clearing. There is also a hidden additional cost in forcing homeowners to pay mortgages against inflated home prices, which is that there is a string of payments that is going uneconomically to a home price that really should not have existed in the first place. Personal consumption expenditures are getting absorbed for a non-productive, non-economic purpose.

Bruce asked each one of the panelists if we get together a year from now, what is the one thing they would like to have accomplished for their industry. Debra said she would like for all mortgage lenders to work collaboratively with each other. If you think about the industry, there are large depositories, small community banks, and independent mortgage bankers. They need to work collaboratively with one voice, decide on a way forward, and not be fighting each other. In addition, they need to work collaboratively with regulators and the policy makers to make sure that we don’t overcorrect and make sure the regulators understand the unintended consequences of the massive amount of regulation. They should also make sure they end up in the right place one year from now with the whole regulatory environment.

Doug Duncan agreed with Debra and said a great deal of it is overkill based on evidence that the market is simply adjusting back to what is a sustainable homeownership rate. Underwriting standards have moved back to more traditional levels. If the homeownership rate is going to be lower, then by definition the investor and rental share has to be higher. This is why there is finally a turn to focus on ways that this can be advantaged.

From the appraisal side, Sara Stephens believes one of the most important things going forward and what she would like to see happen coming into 2012 is a real effort on the part of lenders and the people who regulate the appraisal business to take a look at the difference between an appraiser and a qualified appraiser. The difference is huge. She also wants the lenders and regulators to take a look at the expertise and the education that one has as compared to a person who is just simply earning a fee. Working with the appraisal institute and other professional organizations would certainly be important. The Appraisal Institute would like to work with the lending community, the brokers, and everyone who is involved in the mortgage lending process to make an effort to use the most qualified people who can give the most reliable conclusions.

Sean O’Toole said he would like to change the national discussion on what a home is worth. The sales comparable approach to appraisal versus income or cost basis is ridiculous. It certainly was not the cause of the problem, but it didn’t help keep the problem from getting out of control. We also have a poor understanding nationally of what a home or a piece of residential real estate is really worth. Bruce said if you think about the appraisal process, when Bruce was purchasing in Grand Junction Colorado in 1985, there was no taker in sight. The only comp was his comp. If you had three of these, this was the appraisal number. In Moreno Valley, 2-bedroom houses that were going for $300 had company, and the appraiser had all the evidence that this was the right decision. This is what Sean was talking about reconsidering the definition of market value to have some other factor that doesn’t let things get out of control, whether up or down. This would give us to have stability that in turn would allow lending to be a lot saner and change the whole game.

Gary Thomas said he would like to see clarity from the members of his organization on what they’re doing. Are we still going to have mortgage interest deductions? We need to consider all the things that are really holding everybody back because they really do not know what the future is. Buyers don’t know whether you’re going to still be able to write off the interest on a loan. They don’t know whether they are going to have to put 20% down, 10%, 0r 5%. There are so many unknowns out there that everybody feels like they are in quicksand. Having some stability from a regulatory standpoint would go a long ways towards making things better for the industry.

Eric Janszen said within the context of the American political system, the aftermath of bubbles is always predictable. It is the collective punishment of the innocent. We had Sarbanes Oxley after the dot come crash, which is the Accounts Full Employment Act. This time we have overregulation across the board. It needs to be counter cyclical, so at this point we need to as quickly as possible regain a clear, consistent, and unencumbered relationship between buyer and seller.

Bruce Norris ended by saying he wishes that everyone that we elected in any position of public office would set aside whether they are Democrat or Republican and become American for one year so we can get a lot of things resolved.

This is the final segment for I Survived Real Estate. Thank you to everyone who attended and have tuned in to our radio broadcast. The Norris Group would like to thank their gold sponsors for the event: Adrenaline Athletics, Coldwell Banker Pioneer Real Estate, Conaway and Conaway, Delmae Properties, Elite Auctions, Inland Empire Investors Forum, Inland Valley Association of Realtors, Keller Williams of Corona, Keystone CPA, Kucan & Clark Partners, LLC, Las Brisas Escrow, Leivas Associates, Mike Cantu, Northern California Real Estate Investors Association, Northern San Diego Real Estate Investors Association, Pacific Sunrise Mortgage, Personal Real Estate Magazine, Raven Paul and Company, Realty 411 Magazine, Rick and LeaAnne Rossiter, Southwest Riverside County Board of Realtors, Starz Photography, uDirect IRA, Wilson Investment Properties, Tony Alvarez, Tri-Emerald Financial Group, and Westin South Coast Plaza. Visit isurvived2011.com for more details.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 10/19/10

Tuesday, October 19th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

18,091 new and resale homes were sold in Southern California, said MDA DataQuick. Moody’s reports commercial real estate prices fell 3.3% from last month. A survey from American Strategies and Myers Research shows 77% of adults consider buying a home to be a good financial decision in general.

In The News:

DQNews - “Southern California Home Sales Drop Again, Median Price Edges Up” (10-19-10)

“A total of 18,091 new and resale homes were sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties in September. That was down 2.4 percent from 18,541 in August, and down 16.0 percent from 21,539 for September 2009, according to MDA DataQuick of San Diego.”

CNN - “Housing starts jump to 5-month high” (10-19-10)

“Housing starts, or the number of new homes being built, rose 0.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 610,000 in September, up from a revised 608,000 in August, the Commerce Department said.”

Housing Wire – “Barclays estimates banks face $85 billion in mortgage reps and warranties” (10-19-10)

“Barclays Capital estimates over the next five to seven years, banks may end up paying $85 billion in claims, which would result in another $75 billion of more losses to come. Analysts, though, admit the math is ‘highly subjective’ and included many assumptions, and because the claims would be paid out over time, risks of concentrated damage to balance sheets are relatively low.”

Housing Wire – “FDIC seeks long-term changes to Deposit Insurance Fund” (10-19-10)

“The board of directors for the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. voted Tuesday to propose a long-term management plan for the Deposit Insurance Fund, which provides monetary insurance to FDIC banks in the event of failure. The two main goals of such a plan, which is required under the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, are to maintain a positive fund balance as well as keep future assessment rates consistent for banks.”

Housing Wire – “KBW: Two-thirds of investors oppose FASB accounting proposal” (10-19-10)

“One of the key changes in the proposal would require banks to report the estimated fair value of most loans on their books alongside the current cost accounting valuations. According to the survey of 62 U.S. institutional investors, only one in five favor the proposed changes.”

Housing Wire – “Fitch: 2006, 2007 subprime RMBS prices improving” (10-19-10)

“Subprime prices within two of the most-maligned vintages of residential mortgage-backed securities are showing signs of stabilizing, according Fitch Ratings. The agency’s total market price index for the RMBS sector through September was 9.85, which is nearly flat with the previous three months, according to analysts. But Fitch said RMBS prices from the beleaguered 2006 and 2007 vintages improved last month, climbing 15% and 10%.”

Bloomberg - “Commercial Property Prices in U.S. Decline to Eight-Year Low, Moody’s Says” (10-19-10)

“The Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Index fell 3.3 percent from the prior month to surpass the post-crash low in October 2009, the company said in a statement today. The measure is 45 percent below its October 2007 peak and is at its lowest since June 2002.”

Inman - “Homeownership losing its appeal?” (10-19-10)

“American Strategies and Myers Research & Strategic Services LLC conducted the 2010 Housing Opportunity Pulse Survey on behalf of the National Association of Realtors, interviewing 1,209 adults by telephone Sept. 12-17, 2010. A quarter were renters and 70 percent were homeowners. Overall, 77 percent of respondents said they thought buying a home was a good financial decision in general; 16 percent said it was not a good decision; and 6 percent said they didn’t know.”

Looking Back:

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger signed SB 94, which prevents prohibits any person from collecting an advance fee from a consumer for loan modification. According to Campbell Surveys, the national average home price rose 6% from August to September. MetroStudy anticipates a total of 562,000 housing starts in 2009.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor event calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 9/16/10

Thursday, September 16th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

According to MDA DataQuick, 6,698 houses and condos closed escrow in the Bay Area last month. Also, 34,239 houses and condos were sold statewide. BarCap expects that of all the subprime mortgages still current and originated in 2005, 70% will default.

In The News:

CBIA - “An Updated, Upgraded Deck Made Easy With Composites” (9-16-10)

“According to a recent study by the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University, remodeling spending is expected to increase on an annual basis by the end of the year with growth accelerating to the double-digits in the first quarter of 2011. Fueled by increased confidence in the economy, more homeowners are investing in their homes again.”

MDA DataQuick – “California August Home Sales” (9-16-10)

“An estimated 34,239 new and resale houses and condos were sold statewide last month. That was down 2.7 percent from 35,202 in July, and down 14.0 percent from 39,811 for August 2009. California sales for the month of July have varied from a low of 29,764 in 1992 to a peak of 73,285 in 2005, while the average is 48,805. MDA DataQuick’s statistics go back to 1988.”

MDA DataQuick – “Bay Area Home Sales Drop to 1992 Level; Median Price Slips Again” (9-16-10)

“A total of 6,698 new and resale houses and condos closed escrow in the nine-county Bay Area last month, down 1.1 percent from 6,773 in July and down 10.9 percent from 7,518 in August 2009, according to MDA DataQuick of San Diego.”

MBA - “MBA Report: Give FHA More Resources and Authority to Strengthen Program” (9-16-10)

“The Federal Housing Authority (FHA) commissioner should be granted the resources to better manage the agency through the current housing market crisis and to allow the agency to continue to thrive when the market recovers, according to new report from the Mortgage Bankers Association. Increasing resources for staffing and technology are among the 12 recommendations to improve the FHA and the Government National Mortgage Association (Ginnie Mae) by the MBA’s Council on the Future of FHA and Ginnie Mae. Convened in November 2009, the council consists of senior executives from 27 companies, representing both large national lenders and small independent mortgage bankers.”

CNN - “Foreclosure rates hold steady” (9-16-10)

“The number of homeowners falling enough behind on their loans to attract initial notices of default was down 30% in August, RealtyTrac said Thursday. Eventually, that should translate into fewer people losing their homes.”

San Diego Union Tribune – “Most oppose walking away from mortgage” (9-16-10)

“A majority of Americans believe it is ‘unacceptable’ for homeowners to stop paying mortgage payments and walk away from their homes, says a Pew Research Center survey. Of the 2,967 adults surveyed during the second half of May, 59 percent said they believed it was wrong for a homeowner to stop making mortgage payments and surrender their home to a lender. Still, 19 percent said it was OK to walk away while another 17 percent said it depended on the homeowner’s circumstances.”

Housing Wire – “CoreLogic sees distressed housing sales rising in coming months” (9-16-10)

“CoreLogic (CLGX: 18.29 -0.76%) said tax credit-induced sales helped push distressed sales to a seven-month low in June, but the share of distressed sales is expected to bounce back in coming months, according to the firm’s inaugural U.S. Housing and Mortgage Trends report. The bi-monthly report will track housing sales, valuation, negative equity and foreclosure activity. In June, the distressed sale share fell to 24% of overall sales, down from a peak of 35% in early 2009, according to CoreLogic.”

Housing Wire – “Mission Capital principal: Banks stoke the economy with distressed sales” (9-16-10)

“Activity has dramatically picked up since the fourth quarter of 2008. This is in large part due to speculation on the part of funds and high net worth individuals in loan assets, as well as in the stock and debt of the underlying financial institutions. As banks have become more healthy and their financial projections more visible, they have stoked the economy by simultaneously lending and selling distressed loans at a discount. This creates a virtuous cycle of investment activity in that investors are investing in credit-impaired assets, rehabilitating them and then refinancing right-sized debt.”

Housing Wire – “BarCap estimates more subprime defaults from troubled vintages” (9-16-10)

“BarCap analysts are predicting high default rates on still-current subprime mortgages originated between 2005 and 2007. Of those subprime mortgages still current and originated in 2005, 70% are expected to default. In 2006, the expected default rate for current subprime is 89%, and 84% of current subprime from the 2007 vintage.”

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor event calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 9/7/10

Tuesday, September 7th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

According to SiteSelection, California is experiencing a loss in total migration. FHA will now permit lenders to give more borrowers refinanced loans backed by the government. Trepp reports the delinquency rate for commercial mortage-backed securities increased to 8.92%. Zillow claims mortgage rates increased to 4.27% last week.

In The News:

Telegraph - “No defence left against double-dip recession, says Nouriel Roubini” (9-5-10)

“Dr Roubini said the US growth rate was likely to fall below 1pc in the second half of the year, despite the biggest stimulus in history: a cut in interest rates from 5pc to zero, a budget deficit of 10pc of GDP, and $3 trillion to shore up the financial system.”

Philly - “U.S. housing value down at least $4 trillion” (9-5-10)

“Since the real estate boom ground to a painful close about 31/2 years ago, the nation’s housing stock has shed from about $4 trillion to $7.1 trillion in value. The amount depends on who’s counting. A study by Equifax Inc. and Moody’s Analytics Inc. says the downturn began in early 2007 and cost $4 trillion through March. The Federal Reserve says the downturn began in the fourth quarter of 2006 and cost $7.1 trillion through March.”

CNBC - “Housing Woes Bring New Cry: Let Market Crash” (9-5-10)

“When prices are lower, these experts argue, buyers will pour in, creating the elusive stability the government has spent billions upon billions trying to achieve. ‘Housing needs to go back to reasonable levels,’ said Anthony B. Sanders, a professor of real estate finance at George Mason University.”

Orange County Register – “More people leave California than arrive” (9-5-10)

“In California, the number of outbound moves by the 700 or so moving companies in the movers.com network increased 10.3%, while incomers rose 9.4%. In terms of population changes, New York lost 33% more people than it gained, while Texas gained 50% more people than moved out, SiteSelection says.”

San Francisco Chronicle – “Gov’t launches plan to help ‘underwater’ borrowers” (9-7-10)

“Starting Tuesday, the Federal Housing Administration will permit lenders to give these borrowers refinanced loans backed by the government. The lenders will be required to forgive at least 10 percent of the original mortgage amount. Investors who have control over the mortgages as part of their large portfolios will select which borrowers are invited to participate.”

Housing Wire - “Bank deposit balances shrink for first time since ’92″ (9-7-10)

“For the first time since 1992, bank deposit balances fell in the first half of the year. Deposits decreased 0.4% for the six months between January and June to $7.69 trillion from nearly $7.7 trillion, and the yields on the deposits fell to less than 1%, according to analysis from Market Rates Insight.”

Housing Wire – “Credit score gaps narrow for FHA loans: Quality Mortgage Services” (9-7-10)

“The credit score gap for 2010 loans through the Federal Housing Administration fell 43 points from 2006 levels, according to Quality Mortgage Services. The mortgage quality-control services firm said its data show the average credit score of FHA loans ranked as excellent in 2006 was 665 whereas the average score of a loan ranked fair was 603 for a gap of 62 points. For FHA loans originated so far this year, the firm’s data show excellent loans have average credit scores of 707 while fair loans average scores are 688 for a difference of 19 points.”

Housing Wire – “New Fed limits on yield spread premium protects mortgage servicers from defaults: Moody’s” (9-7-10)

“The new restriction prohibits a loan originator’s compensation (similar to a commission) from being based on a yield spread premium; effectively, the difference between the interest rate required by a lender and the rate the borrower actually accepts. It is essentially another another step towards borrower protection, just as Fannie Mae’s prohibition on appraisal cutting became effective last week.”

Housing Wire – “CMBS delinquencies accelerate toward 9% in August: Trepp” (9-7-10)

“After two months of moderated growth in delinquent loans backing commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), the delinquency rate in August increased 21 basis points to 8.92%, according to the analytics firm Trepp. It’s an increase from the 8.71% measured in July and another new record. The August delinquency rate is more than double the 4.03% rate a year ago. Since the beginning of 2010, the delinquency rate has increased more than 200 bps.”

Housing Wire – “Zillow: 30-year, fixed rate inched up to 4.27% last week” (9-7-10)

“The 30-year, fixed mortgage rate inched up last week to 4.27% from its nadir of 4.26% the week prior, according to the Zillow Mortgage Marketplace weekly update. California’s current rate of 4.26% is down from 4.28% last week and 4.3% the week prior.”

Orange County Register – “O.C. on track for fewest mortgages in a decade” (9-7-10)

“The Pomona-based Real Estate Research Council of Southern California reported that the number of loans issued to buy or refinance Orange County homes fell 23% to 46,195 during the first half of 2010. In the first half of 2009, lenders recorded just over 60,000 ‘trust deeds,’ or home loans.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, nearly one-third of those who obtained home loans during the boom years of 2005 and 2006 couldn’t get one. The eight-county Sacramento region counted more than 42,000 foreclosures from 2007 to 2009. A report showed that 20 percent of Californians were unemployed.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor event calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 9/3/10

Friday, September 3rd, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

Fannie Mae will fine loan servicers who take too long to complete foreclosures after a borrower fails to qualify for a modification. The total value of all California properties fell 1.8% this year to $4.4 trillion. The Labor Department reports the federal employment got rid of 121,000 jobs in August.

In The News:

Housing Wire – “Most GSE capital reductions due to single-family credit guarantee” (9-3-10)

“The first Conservator’s Report on the Enterprises’ Financial Condition from the Federal Housing Finance Agency showed the single-family credit guarantee programs accounted for 73% of the capital reduction. Although declines in housing prices and prolonged economic weakness have hurt credit performance of traditional mortgages, as well, the FHFA said.”

Inman - “Fannie cracks the foreclosure whip” (9-3-10)

“Fannie Mae says it will begin fining loan servicers who take too long to complete foreclosures once it’s been determined that delinquent borrowers don’t qualify for a loan modification or other alternatives like short sales”

Los Angeles Times – “Value of California’s properties falls 1.8% to $4.4 trillion” (9-3-10)

“The value of all types of properties fell 1.8% this year to $4.4 trillion, the California Board of Equalization reported Thursday. The total value fell 2.4% last year.”

Housing Wire - “Another homebuyer tax credit won’t solve economic crisis” (9-3-10)

“Whether a policy is deemed a success or not depends on what it intends to achieve. If the Obama administration hoped that the first homebuyer tax credit, which ran from January 2009 to April this year, would provide a temporary kick to home sales, then let’s break out the ticker tape. Over this period, total home sales increased by 27%, from an annualized 4.9 million to 6.2 million. Of course, not all of these extra sales were due to the tax credit; some homes were brought without the credit while others would have been purchased regardless. Nonetheless, the credit did temporarily boost sales.”

Housing Wire – “August nonfarm payrolls shed 54,000 jobs” (9-3-10)

“Nonfarm payroll employment for August came in below analysts’ estimates, as 54,000 jobs were lost during the month, and the unemployment level rose slightly to 9.6%. The Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported federal employment shed another 121,000 jobs in August, including 114,000 temporary Census workers many of whom continue to trudge back to the ranks of the unemployed.”

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor event calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 9/2/10

Thursday, September 2nd, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

Servicers made over 120,000 proprietary loan modifications in July, and 36,695 HAMP modifications. Pending home sales increased 5.2 percent in July, according to the NAR. MBA reports 30+ day commercial delinquencies increased to 8.22 percent in the second quarter. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey shows mortgage rates dropped again to a rate of 4.32%.

In The News:

The Press Enterprise – “New ways of viewing the housing meltdown” (9-1-10)

“At a meeting last night of the Inland Empire Investors, Norris said the federal government’s apparent agreement to allow banks to delay foreclosing on homes where the owners have ceased paying their mortgages for months on end is probably helping to hold up the economy. After all, the money that isn’t paying mortgages is going into the homeowners’ pockets and being spent on goods and services. Ironic, huhn?”

Mortgage Orb – “Proprietary Mods More Than Triple HAMP Mods” (8-31-10)

“Servicers completed more than 120,000 proprietary loan modifications in July – more than three times the number of mods completed through the federal Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP), HOPE NOW reports. As reported by U.S. Treasury Department, servicers executed 36,695 HAMP modifications in July.”

Mortgage News Daily – “HUD Secretary Tiptoes Around Another Tax Credit, Pushes Balanced Housing Policy” (8-30-10)

“Donovan said that the dip in house sales in July was not unexpected because it would mark the end of the homebuyers’ tax credit that had been successful in spurring those sales. But, he said, the numbers were clearly worse than expected. The Secretary said, in response the Administration would be launching two additional critical tools in the next few weeks. The first will be an FHA refinancing effort to help borrowers who are underwater in their homes, the second is an emergency homeowners’ loan program to help unemployed borrowers to in their homes.”

NAR - “Pending Home Sales Rise” (9-2-10)

“The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator, rose 5.2 percent to 79.4 based on contracts signed in July from a downwardly revised 75.5 in June, but remains 19.1 percent below July 2009 when it was 98.1. The data reflects contracts and not closings, which normally occur with a lag time of one or two months.”

Mortgage Bankers Association – “MBA: Commercial Delinquencies Up for CMBS, Flat for Banks in Second Quarter” (9-2-10)

“Between the first quarter and second quarter 2010, the 30+ day delinquency rate on loans held in CMBS rose 1.39 percentage points to 8.22 percent. The 60+ day delinquency rate on loans held in life company portfolios decreased 0.02 percentage points to 0.29 percent. The 60+ day delinquency rate on multifamily loans held or insured by Fannie Mae rose 0.01 percentage points to 0.80 percent. The 60+ day delinquency rate on multifamily loans held or insured by Freddie Mac increased 0.03 percentage points to 0.28 percent. The 90+ day delinquency rate on loans held by FDIC-insured banks and thrifts remained unchanged at 4.26 percent. ”

Inman - “Communities get ‘First Look’ at many REOs” (9-2-10)

“Federal housing officials have reached an agreement with mortgage lenders that will give nonprofit organizations and state and local governments right of first refusal to purchase foreclosed homes in certain targeted neighborhoods. Lenders participating in the ‘National First Look Program’ represent about 75 percent of the real estate owned (REO) marketplace, the Department of Housing and Urban Development announced Wednesday.”

Housing Wire – “Weekly jobless claims down 1.25% to 472,000″ (9-2-10)

“The Department of Labor said Thursday seasonally-adjusted initial claims fell to 472,000 for the week ended Aug. 28, down from an upwardly revised 478,000 for the previous week. The consensus estimate of analysts surveyed by Briefing.com expected claims to drop to 475,000 last week.”

Housing Wire – “Freddie 30-year FRMs set record low at 4.32%” (9-2-10)

“The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported the average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) at 4.32% with an average 0.7 origination point for the week ending Sept. 2, down from last week’s average of 4.36% and a year ago, when the average was 5.08%. This is the lowest rate the survey has recorded since its inception in 1971.”

Housing Wire – “Bernanke says stopping housing bubble was not an option” (9-2-10)

“Speaking before the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission this morning in Washington, Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke said if steps could have been taken three years ago to stop the bubble in the economy, which eventually lead to today’s recession, it would not have been a prudent decision to do so.”

Housing Wire – “OCC: lending standards loosen somewhat from year earlier” (9-2-10)

“The 2010 survey of credit underwriting practices by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency showed 65% of banks tightened standards for commercial products and 74% tightened up retail lending. The survey measures the most-common types of credit offered by 51 of the largest national banks for the 12 months ended March 31. The value of the loans surveyed was $4 trillion, or more than 93% of all outstanding loans in the national banking system, according to the OCC.”

Housing Wire – “Serious HFA delinquencies decline in Q110: S&P” (9-2-10)

“Overall delinquency rates for HFA loans remained high, increasing 1.67% between Q409 and Q110 to 6.05%; however, seriously delinquent HFA loans decreased to 6.05% from 6.57%.”

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor event calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

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189-TNG Radio – Christopher Thornberg 8-28-10

Friday, August 27th, 2010

christopher-thornberg

Christopher Thornberg

Founder and Principle of Beacon Economics


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September 17th, 2010, The Norris Group returns with its award winning event I Survived Real Estate 2010. The Norris Group has assembled an incredible line up of industry experts to discuss the state of REO from the inside. Topics will include regulatory intervention and aftermath, bulk buying, myths and facts, and opportunities emerging for real estate professionals. 100 percent of the proceeds support the Orange County affiliate of Susan G. Komen for the Cure. This event would not be possible without generous help from the following platinum partners: Foreclosure Radar and Sean O’Toole, the San Diego Creative Real Estate Investors Association and Bill Tan, Investors Workshops and Shawn Watkins and Angel Bronsgeest, Invest Club for Women and Iris Veneracion and Bobby Alexander, Claudia Buys Houses, The Business Press, Frye Wiles, MVT Productions, and White House Catering.

This week Bruce is joined by Christopher Thornberg. Christopher is the founding principle of Beacon Economics, and is widely considered to be one of California’s leading economic forecasters. He is an expert in economic forecasting, regional development, real estate dynamics and labor markets. He was one of the earliest and most adamant predictors of the housing crash and the recession that followed. In 2008, he was appointed chief economist for the California State Controller as well as the Controller’s Council of Economic Advisors. He serves on the advisor board of Paulson & Company Inc., one of Wall Street’s most successful hedge funds. Dr. Thornberg holds a PhD in business economics from the Anderson school of UCLA, and a BS in business administration from the state university of New York at Buffalo.

Public sentiment tends to wander between optimistic and pessimistic. No one wants to believe that this recovery might be too slow. Instead, people either hope for a rapid recovery, or they panic over a double dip. Earlier in the year, people were far too optimistic about a rapid recovery, and now they are in a state of unwarranted pessimism. Thornberg does not believe that either of those beliefs are true. He believes that slow growth is most likely going to occur.

Expectations can have an economic impact. Forecasters tend to think that the stock market is a leading indicator of the economy. Paul Samuelson once said “The stock market has predicted 9 out of the last 5 recessions.” We must remember that when we see market swings, it has a material impact on the economy. When the market dumps 15 percent, you are literally talking about a couple trillion dollars in wealth disappearing from the U.S. economy. That does have an influence on spending, particularly at the top end of the income scale. From that perspective, unwarranted worries can create a self fulfilling prophecy and slow the economy.

Over the last 20 years, we have seen unprecedented volatility in the equity markets. We would help ourselves by putting in some rules to dampen that volatility. Thornberg describes the problem as “the tail controlling the economic dog”.

GDP growth in the 90s was caused by stocks. In 2000, it was from real estate equity withdrawal and profits. Currently, our limited growth seems to come from stimulus money. Thornberg does not believe there will be any sort of big driver, and that is part of the reason we will have a slow recovery.

In the mid 70s, there was a consumer let down with the oil shock. Consumers responded to the loss of jobs, high energy prices, and the overall pessimism by cutting back on spending, and that caused a down turn. At the back end of that down turn, consumers who were under-spending started to ramp up their income. They then bought the car they would have bought during the down turn plus another one. That caused a huge surge in consumer spending growth.

Similarly, in the 2001 down turn, we saw a cycle in business spending. Business spending was very high, and then it collapsed. When business spending came back in 2002, we pulled out of the down turn and we got back to normal growth in 2003.

This time, there is no single great source that will cause us to bounce back. The economy was vastly overheated in 2008, and the pain of the down turn was severe, because the pull back occurred in multiple markets at one time. The government got massively involved in both monetary and fiscal policy. In their attempt to stabilize things, they prevented our imbalances from returning to a steady state.

Consumer spending should represent about 80 percent of income, and the other 20 percent should go to savings, taxes and a couple other things. In the midst of the asset bubble, we went from 80 to 84 percent. That extra 4 percent represents approximately half a trillion dollars in excess spending. Savings rates have popped back up in the midst of the crisis, which is good, but the pain of that decline in consumer spending was profound on the economy. As a result, part of the stimulus package was a huge cut in taxes. Right now, Americans are the lowest tax rate in 65 years. This has steadied consumer spending at 82 percent of income. The government is running a deficit of $1.4 trillion per year. At some point, the government will have to raise taxes. When they raise taxes, consumers are going to have to cut back on spending, and that will slow the economy.

We have a lot of deleveraging going on. 23 percent of Riverside is not making a house payment. Because so many people aren’t making their house payments, Bruce believes that people will have plenty of money to spend. Thornberg disagrees, because he does not feel that the money saved from not paying mortgages will amount to that much. Mortgage payments in the U.S. amount to 15 percent of income. Thornberg believes the non-payment of mortgages only adds up to .5 percent of personal income. That is a much smaller number than what happens to personal income as a result of the rise and fall of the unemployment rate.

Bruce explains that in California, a house payment typically represents 40% of someone’s gross. When they don’t make mortgage payments, that saves money, and that fuels GDP. Thornberg understands this, but 1/3 of homeowners in California homeowners own their house free and clear. Of the 2/3rds that are left, the majority are still making their payments. You only have 10 percent of the people in the state that aren’t making their payments. Thornberg does believe that this will make a small difference in the economy, but it is not as significant as people make it out to be.

Bruce asks, “What does seeing a 2.6 10-year T-build tell you?” Thornberg laughs and exclaims that the t-builds are in a bubble. You got to call it as you see it. Sometimes that works and sometimes it doesn’t. A few years ago, Thornberg claimed the housing market was going to crash, and he was right. One of the worst forecasts Thornberg ever made happened 3 months ago when he claimed that interest rates would never go lower. Thornberg has seen some crazy things happen lately. He never could have forecasted this. He believes these things have been driven by worries about sovereign debt in Europe, and a potential for a double dip. This is why Bruce asked his question about Thornberg’s expectations for the t-build, because people’s fears have skewed a lot of categories.

The raw ratio of prices to income will show you that we have not seen a level of retraction that brings us back to the levels we were at in 2000. Prices are still high in comparison to income, but once you adjust for interest rates, affordability levels have never been this great. We have never seen such an affordable housing market when considering current interest rates. Thornberg does not believe that the current interest rates will be maintained. They are going to rise, but he wonders when they will rise and how fast they will rise. If we are on the path to recovery, we could have problems if the credit bubble pops rapidly. If interest rates increase 4.5% to 6.5% in 6 months, then it will severely damage the housing market.

Fannie Mae is planning to hire 1,000 REO agents in Southern California. This tells Bruce that Fannie intends to release inventory; perhaps as soon as the 4th quarter. FHA has 73,000 REOs and 555,000 people that are 90 days late. There are a lot of properties that the bank has not released, but we also have to be concerned about the properties that the banks are not foreclosing on yet. There are probably 4 to 5 million homeowners that are behind on their payments.

Because affordability is so good right now, there will probably be some demand for the shadow inventory. One thing that distinguishes California from states live Nevada, Florida and Arizona is the fact that we did not over build. Nevada and Florida have years of home supply.

Rental vacancies typically stay high after a recession, but vacancies are actually starting to drop quite quickly, especially in California. Thornberg does not believe there will be enough inventory in California, so when the shadow inventory gets released, it will probably be easily picked up. Thornberg believes we will have a stronger housing market over the next couple years because of the inventory levels in relation to the population. It surprised Bruce to hear Thornberg speak so positively about the housing market.

Bruce and Thornberg do not believe we have pent-up demand, but Thornberg does believe that we have a lack of overall supply. When you look at permits over the past 20 years, the numbers show that we have not built enough housing relative to the population growth since 1995. Even in the midst of the bubble, Thornberg believes we were only building an amount that was appropriate for our population growth.

The builders do not have many vacant unsold homes right now, but their competition, which is an REO, is going to be much to competitive. This competition will force them to build smaller houses. Going forward, Bruce believes that vacant homes are going to increase a tremendous amount. Thornberg does not believe prices will come back a lot.

The kind of building going on right now is on the basis of already finished lots. The inventory of finished but unused lots is disappearing rapidly. In the peak of the housing bubble, local economies ramped up fees. Given what people were willing to pay, there were enormous profits to be made in the sale of a new home. Now that the bubble is gone, cities need to reduce their fees, but they probably won’t. Right now, local governments have a lot of pressure placed on them because of the down turn in revenues. Thornberg believes we will have crowded housing, because many people will not be able to purchase new property due to the excessive fees.

In a down turn, people tend to start living together rather than moving out. This is actually starting to change, which is part of the reason why apartment vacancies are going down. We are not in a strong recovery, but it has been a year since the recession ended. Things have stabilized, and fears are beginning to lift.

Overall, jobs are down right now, but that is mainly due to losses in the public sector. Construction jobs actually bounced a decent amount from June to July. Thornberg does not believe the construction industry will come roaring back to what is was like 5 or 6 years ago, but we are seeing more stability in that sector.

Here are the pros and cons of our current situation: On the con side, we still have problems in the housing market. Many people are not making payments and many are underwater. California has some of the worst unemployment rates, which means we have more to recover from. On the pro side, prior to this down turn, this state was driven by internal demand. This means that our demand was coming from consumers with excessive amounts of false housing equity. At the same time, our external sources of growth were getting hammered. The dollar was over-valued and housing was too expensive, which made it hard to run a business here. Those internal sources of demand will not come back. On the other hand, with a weaker U.S. dollar and cheaper housing, other things will begin to improve. Despite our high unemployment rate, people are beginning to migrate back to California.

The percentage of homeownership is probably headed down. Thornberg does not believe that this is a real concern. He does not believe there are any particular benefits for owning vs renting.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

Thank you for being a Gold Sponsor for I Survived Real Estate 2010: Adrenaline Athletics, Benton Investment Group, Community RE-Invest Group, Delmae Properties, Elite Auctions, Entrust California, Everlast Photography, Inland Empire Investors Forum, Keystone CPA, Landwood Title, Las Brisas Escrow, Leivas Financial Services, Mike Cantu, North San Diego Real Estate Investors Association, Northern California Real Estate Investors Association, Personal Real Estate Investor Magazine, Realty 411 Magazine, San Jose Real Estate Investor Association, Rick and LeeAnne Rossiter, San Jose Real Estate Investor Association, Starz Photography, Summit Solutions, Tony Alvarez, Wealth Point, and Westin South Coast Plaza.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 8/24/10

Tuesday, August 24th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

Existing home sales experienced a dramatic decrease of 27.2 percent in July, according to the NAR. Housing production decreased by 10 percent in June. The CAR reports California home sales decreased 20.8 percent in July. Statistics from the California Employment Development Department show that 7,100 jobs were lost from July 2009.

In The News:

NAR - “July Existing-Home Sales Fall as Expected but Prices Rise” (8-24-10)

“Existing-home sales1, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, dropped 27.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.83 million units in July from a downwardly revised 5.26 million in June, and are 25.5 percent below the 5.14 million-unit level in July 2009.”

CBIA - “California Housing Production Increases in July, CBIA Announces” (8-24-10)

“According to statistics compiled by the Construction Industry Research Board (CIRB), permits were pulled for 4,165 total housing units in July, up 35 percent from the same month a year ago but down 10 percent from June. Permits for single-family homes totaled 1,951, down 9 percent from July 2009 and down 31 percent from the previous month, while multifamily permits totaled 2,214, up 134 percent from a year ago and up 25 percent from May.”

Mortgage Bankers Association – “Wells Fargo Tops U.S. Commercial/Multifamily Servicers in MBA Mid-Year Rankings Report” (8-24-10)

“The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its mid-year ranking of commercial and multifamily mortgage servicers as of the end of June 30, 2010. Topping the list of firms is Wells Fargo with $462.8 billion in U.S. master and primary servicing, followed by PNC Real Estate/Midland Loan Services with $307.9 billion, Berkadia Commercial Mortgage with $202.6 billion, Bank of America Merrill Lynch with $133.4 billion and KeyBank Real Estate Capital with $124.7 billion.”

CAR - “July sales and price report” (8-24-10)

“California home sales decreased 20.8 percent in July compared with the same period a year ago, while the median price of an existing home rose 10.4 percent from July 2009, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) reported today.”

Housing Wire – “Disappointing Homes Sales Unlikely to Reverse Course” (8-24-10)

“Predictions that home prices may drop into double digits continue to drag down sales. Bill Gross, managing director of the world’s biggest bond fund, PIMCO remarked that the idea of a rebound anytime soon is ‘ludicrous.’ In a meeting at the US Treasury last week, Gross called for combining the government-sponsored entities into one entity that insures the majority of current and future originations.”

Housing Wire – “60% of Delinquent Mortgages Not in Loss Mitigation” (8-24-10)

“According to a study from the State Foreclosure Prevention Working Group (SFPWG), 60% of borrowers with mortgages delinquent by 60 days or more are not being forwarded to the servicer’s loss mitigation department.”

Bloomberg - “Purchases of Existing Homes in U.S. Probably Slumped in July” (8-24-10)

“Sales of U.S. previously owned homes probably plunged in July to the lowest level since March 2009, evidence the market is restrained by foreclosures and limited job growth, economists said before a report today. Purchases dropped 13.4 percent from June to a 4.65 million annual rate, according to the median of 73 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. A decline would be the third in a row.”

Orange County Register – “Corona del Mar is O.C.’s ‘coldest’ market” (8-24-10)

“The pricier the town, the harder it is to sell a home there right now, the latest O.C. home inventory report from Steve Thomas at Altera Real Estate shows. Corona del Mar, for example, was Orange County’s ‘coldest’ market in the past 30 days. In theory, it would take 11 1/2 months to sell all the homes on the market there at the current sales pace, the highest ‘market time’ for any O.C. community in the 30 days ending on Aug. 19. Other ‘cold’ markets likewise tend to be home to some of O.C.’s most expensive housing.”

Orange County Register – “Real estate, building jobs down 5% in July” (8-24-10)

“Indeed, construction suffered the largest year-over-year decline among every employment category, the state Employment Development Department reported. Construction jobs fell by 7,100 positions from July 2009, down nearly 10%. Construction jobs totaled 65,700 in July, state figures show.”

Orange County Register – “Broker: No tsunami of repo’d homes to hit market” (8-24-10)

“This shadow inventory has to be worked through, but is not going to occur as a tsunami of distressed properties to hit the market all at once. Instead, we are going to witness slow increases and drops over the next few years. This slow absorption will not pull down values like it did at the beginning of this downturn and it will keep a lid on any substantial appreciation. Once employment improves, the pathway to an eventual healthy and stable recovery will occur.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, 45,079 new and resale houses and condos were sold statewide in one month. Home sales in the Bay Area hit a 4 year high. The Federal Reserve accepted $2.3 billion in investor requests for financing to purchase legacy commercial mortgage-backed securities.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor event calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 8/23/10

Monday, August 23rd, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

The CBIA reports 2,454 new homes and condominiums were closed statewide in June, compared to 3,848 a year earlier. A survey from Trulia shows that 68% of renters believe they will have to wait at least two years before even considering buying a home. According to HUD, 616,839 HAMP modifications have been canceled and 434,716 modifications have been made permanent since the program began. The Congressional Budget Office expects the Troubled Asset Relief Program to cost a total of $66bn.

In The News:

Daily Bulletin - “Uncertain times” (8-19-10)

“Norris said a larger number of expensive homes thrown into the mix of homes sold this year may be skewing the median price up, rather than an overall price increase in homes. Norris also said home affordability is ‘off the charts’ but it does not necessarily translate to a greater demand to buy homes. Because of the real estate crash, more people are afraid to go to the finish line with home purchases, he said.”

CBIA - “California New-Home Market Continues Struggle in June, CBIA Announces” (8-23-10)

“The monthly CBIA/Hanley Wood Market Intelligence (HWMI) New-Home Sales and Pricing Report showed that statewide new-home closings in June were off 36 percent from a year ago. During the month, 2,454 new homes and condominiums were closed across the state, compared to 3,848 a year earlier. Closings of single-family homes were down by 17 percent, while sales of townhomes were off by 57 percent and sales of condominiums were 67 percent lower than a year ago.”

Orange County Register – “Landlords pray for jobs” (8-21-10)

“I’m still concerned about future job growth and global market conditions that we don’t have control over. Unfortunately, our improvement is a condition of the housing and credit markets and reduced multifamily inventory, not significant job growth. Would-be home buyers who are no longer able to qualify to purchase a home, former home owners who lost their homes and new wage earners are sustaining our improved fundamentals. We will need consistent and sustainable job growth going forward.”

Orange County Register – “A good time to be a landlord?” (8-22-10)

“A new survey by Trulia.com shows that 1 in 4 renters say they’ll never purchase a home, and of those who will, 68% say it’ll take more than a couple of years to happen.”

Housing Wire – “Housing’s Second Leg Down” (8-23-10)

“Home prices have fallen 34% from their peak in the middle of 2006, according to Standard & Poor’s HPI data — but is that enough? Or is there further to go? How much further could we fall?”

Housing Wire – “HAMP Trial Cancelations Catching up to Permanent Modifications” (8-23-10)

“The Making Home Affordable Program (HAMP) initiated 1.3m trials as of July 2010, but is having difficulty retaining program participants through the process of making their modifications permanent. According to the July Servicer Performance Report released by the US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), 616,839 modifications have been canceled while 434,716 modifications have been made permanent throughout the program’s lifetime.”

Housing Wire – “TARP Losses Recalculated to $66bn as GSE Outlook Improves” (8-23-10)

“The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected Friday the total cost of Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) over its lifetime would be $66bn. This is down from the $109bn lifetime cost projected in March. Outlays for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will fall from $96bn in 2009 to $41bn this year, the CBO estimates, mostly because the two entities are expected to recognize fewer losses on their mortgage investments and guarantees.”

Housing Wire – “Econoday Reports Swings in Housing Starts Due To Multifamily Volatility” (8-23-10)

“July housing starts rose 1.7% to 546,000 from June’s revised figure of 537,000, which is the lowest level since October. The June revision and volatility in the multifamily component led to the monthly gain, according to Mark Rogers, senior economist at the Calif.-based research firm.”

Housing Wire – “Monday Morning Cup of Coffee” (8-23-10)

“The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) released Friday a list of Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) performance evaluations for 39 national banks and insured federal branches of foreign banks. Of the banks, nine received an outstanding rating, 30 received a satisfactory rating and none needed to improve. None were of substantial noncompliance.”

Housing Wire – “Strengthening CRE Market Pushes Defeasance Levels Up: Moody’s” (8-23-10)

“Moody’s said loans originally secured by multi-family properties saw the highest level of defeasance during the first six months, accounting for 46% of total defeasance. Retail properties represented 22% of all defeasance for the period with lodging properties at 17%. And 61% of all defeased loans during the period had two years or less remaining on the loan. Defeasance activity is when a borrower in a commercial real estate securitization substitutes some type of capital-generating collateral – often Treasury securities – in lieu of a hard payment.”

Bloomberg - “Bernanke Must Raise Benchmark Rate 2 Points, Rajan Says” (8-23-10)

“Raghuram Rajan accurately warned central bankers in 2005 of a potential financial crisis if banks lost confidence in each other. Now the International Monetary Fund’s former chief economist says the Federal Reserve should consider raising rates, even as almost 10 percent of the U.S. workforce remains unemployed.”

Bloomberg - “Housing Slide in U.S. Threatens to Drag Economy Into Recession” (8-23-10)

“‘If foreclosures continue to mount and depress home prices, that could send the economy back into a recession,’ said Celia Chen, an economist who tracks the industry for Moody’s Analytics Inc.”

Orange County Register – “‘How to torpedo your short sale’” (8-23-10)

“Many of the lenders won’t pay past due HOA dues, and the short sale can’t be closed without bringing the HOA dues current. If you can, keep your HOA dues current or plan to bring money to close to pay for them.  Sometimes the lender will pay them, sometimes the buyer will, and sometimes we need can succesfully negotiate the amount, but late HOA dues can torpedo a short sale on your Orange County home.”

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor event calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 7/22/10

Thursday, July 22nd, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

CAR reports California home sales decreased 4.2 percent in June. Statistics from the NAR show existing home sales 5.1 percent in June. Ascension Capital Group predicts total bankruptcy filings will top 1.63m in 2010, and increase nearly 10% in 2011. Eight million homeowners are currently not paying their mortgage.

In The News:

CAR - “June sales and price report” (7-22-10)

“Home sales decreased 4.2 percent in June in California compared with the same period a year ago, while the median price of an existing home rose 13.6 percent, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) reported today.”

NAR - “Existing-Home Sales Slow in June but Remain Above Year-Ago Levels” (7-22-10)

“Existing-home sales1, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, fell 5.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.37 million units in June from 5.66 million in May, but are 9.8 percent higher than the 4.89 million-unit pace in June 2009.”

Housing Wire – “Servicers Dissect HAMP, Short Sales at Loss Mit Conference” (7-22-10)

“While Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) often gets a bad rap in the press, panelists at the loss mitigation conference in Dallas Thursday were less inclined to call the program a failure although they pointed to some weaknesses.”

Housing Wire - “HUD to Probe Claims of Mortgage Discrimination” (7-22-10)

“The US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) announced Wednesday that it will launch a series of investigations to determine if the lending practices used by certain mortgage lenders violated the Fair Housing Act. Questions arose after the New York Times published an article demonstrating that firms may have illegally denied mortgages to expectant mothers and families experiencing short-term disability.”

Housing Wire – “Bankruptcy Creates Many Problems in Mortgage Loss Mit” (7-22-10)

“Total bankruptcy filings are projected to top 1.63m in 2010, and increase nearly 10% and nearly 9% in 2011 and 2012, respectively, according John Griggs, chief operating officer of Fort Worth-based Ascension Capital Group. Griggs said the rate of bankruptcy filings closely follows rates of foreclosure, unemployment and strategic default. Ascension projects unemployment will remain high through the end of 2010, then flatten out and reduce and hover around 8% by late 2011 or early 2012.”

Inman – “Record low rates spur refis but not sales” (7-22-10)

“The survey showed 30-year fixed-rate loans averaging 4.56 percent with 0.7 point, essentially unchanged from last week’s 4.57 percent reading, but down from 5.2 percent a year ago and a new low in records dating to 1971. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage also hit a low in records dating to 1991, falling from 4.06 percent last week to 4.03 percent with an average 0.7 point. At this time a year ago, those loans averaged 4.68 percent.”

Inman - “A view on 62% homeownership” (7-22-10)

“Eight million homeowners are currently not paying their mortgage, and we believe 6 million of them will lose their home to the bank in the next two years. This will reduce the homeownership rate to 62 percent”

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

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