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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 5/4/11

Wednesday, May 4th, 2011

Today’s News Synopsis:

A survey shows that 45% of homebuyers think they should always buy mortgage discount points. Freddie Mac ended the first three months of the year with a positive net worth of $1.2 billion, and will need no additional funding from Treasury for the first quarter. Automatic Data Processing Inc said the private sector added 179,000 jobs in April.

In The News:

Mortgage Bankers Association – “Latest MBA Weekly Survey Shows Increase in Mortgage Applications, Driven by Refinances” (5-4-11)

“Mortgage applications increased 4.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association”

Washington Post – “House GOP set to move ahead with legislation to limit new consumer bureau” (5-4-11)

“The political tug of war over the new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau will enter another round Wednesday, when House Republicans forge ahead with legislation aimed at curbing the fledgling watchdog’s powers even before it officially opens its doors in July.”

Sign On San Diego – “Quiz: Homebuyers lack mortgage know-how” (5-4-11)

“Forty-five percent of those surveyed think they should always buy mortgage discount points, which are prepaid interest. The fact is, the decision hinges on how long you plan to own the property. It would not be worthwhile to buy them in certain cases.”

Bloomberg - “U.S. May Pursue More Lenders After Suing Deutsche Bank on Faulty Mortgages” (5-4-11)

“The U.S. Department of Justice may pursue claims against other lenders after suing Deutsche Bank AG for more than $1 billion, alleging the firm lied while arranging federal insurance on faulty mortgages.”

DSNews - “Trepp Reports Jump in CMBS Delinquencies to New Record-High” (5-4-11)

“The New York-based research firm says the percentage of loans 30-plus days delinquent, in foreclosure, or REO climbed 23 basis points last month to hit 9.65 percent. That number is, once again, the highest reading in the history of the CMBS market, according to Trepp.”

DSNews - “Freddie Mac Turns $676M Profit in Q1, Needs No Taxpayer Funding” (5-4-11)

“The nation’s second largest mortgage company reported Wednesday that it pulled in net income of $676 million during the first three months of this year. Freddie Mac closed the quarter with positive net worth of $1.2 billion. As a result, no additional funding from Treasury was required for the first quarter of 2011.”

Housing Wire – “Private sector added 179,000 jobs in April” (5-4-11)

“Automatic Data Processing Inc. reported the private sector tacked on 179,000 jobs last month. The payroll giant conducts the monthly survey, which excludes federal jobs, in conjunction with Macroeconomic Advisers.”

Housing Wire – “FDIC study blames mortgage servicing mess on big banks” (5-4-11)

“The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. took a look into the foreclosure operations at the largest mortgage servicers and found significant breakdowns at almost every stage of the process. However, these issues are largely isolated to the servicers that hold the largest share of the mortgage finance business.”

Housing Wire – “Revival in commercial real estate, mortgage finance needs more jobs” (5-4-11)

“absent strong improvement in U.S. job markets and demand for business space, the nation’s commercial real estate sector will likely continue its slow, bifurcated recovery over the coming year — with top urban markets outpacing recovery in secondary, non-gateway markets.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, pending home sales increased by 5.3 percent in February. Statistics from PMI indicated the home price reduction risk was significantly decreasing across most U.S. regions. The percentage of loans 30+ days delinquent, in foreclosure or real estate owned (REO) status increased to 8.02 percent in March 2010. McGraw-Hill reports the residential sector is up 35% in the first three months of 2010 compared to the same time one year ago.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 3/21/11

Monday, March 21st, 2011

Today’s News Synopsis:

Existing home sales dropped 9.6%, according to the NAR. A San Joaquin County investor pleaded guilty to rigging foreclosure auctions, and is now facing a federal prison sentence and $1 million in fines. LPS claims the current mortgage delinquency rate is 8.8%.

In The News:

NAR - “February Existing-Home Sales Decline following Sustained Gains” (3-21-11)

“Existing-home sales1, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, dropped 9.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.88 million in February from an upwardly revised 5.40 million in January, and are 2.8 percent below the 5.02 million pace in February 2010.”

Housing Wire – “California pending home sales spike in February” (3-21-11)

“The California Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index rose 20.6% in February to 112.1 from 93 in January. The index uses 2008 housing market activity as a baseline because it represents a more normal level of purchases and sales. An index reading of 100 corresponds with activity in 2008.”

Recordnet.com – “Guilty plea in home auction rigging” (3-21-11)

“A San Joaquin County investor pleaded guilty Friday in federal court to charges he illegally rigged bids with others at home foreclosure auctions in Stockton, the U.S. Attorney’s Office in Sacramento reported. Gregory L. Jackson is the sixth defendant so far to plead guilty in the federal probe. He faces a federal prison sentence and $1 million in fines under terms of the negotiated plea deal.”

Orange County Register – “‘Normal’ new-home market is 3-5 years off” (3-19-21)

“We decided to add Southern California (especially the O.C. market) into our business plan since we believe this market has bottomed. In today’s home building market, there is an imbalance between used and new homes in Orange County as a limited amount of new homes have been built over the last five years.”

Orange County Register – “Demand for O.C. homes at 7-month high” (3-21-11)

“Demand, the number of new pending sales over the past month, increased by 225 in just two weeks and now totals 2,982. At the beginning of the year, demand was at 1,856 pending sales. Since then, it has increased by 61%. Last year at this time there were 288 additional pending sales, propped up by the $8,000 first time homebuyer tax credit.”

Housing Wire – “Mortgage delinquency rate drops 18.4% annually: LPS” (3-21-11)

“Out of the 40 million loans evaluated by LPS last month, 8.8% qualified as delinquent (30 days or more overdue). That delinquency rate is down 1.2% from January and 18.4% from February 2010.”

Housing Wire – “Stress tests suggest economy may slide back into crisis: IRA” (3-21-11)

“Recent stress tests conducted by the Federal Reserve suggest the banking industry and economy ‘may be sliding back into crisis’ because of deflation in the housing sector, according to a new report from Institutional Risk Analytics.”

Housing Wire – “Moody’s expects temporary GSE exemption from mortgage risk rules” (3-21-11)

“Analysts at Moody’s Investors Service said Monday regulators may exempt Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from upcoming mortgage risk retention rules – at least temporarily.”

Housing Wire – “Distressed property sales decline on foreclosure issues facing servicers” (3-21-11)

“Overall, investors stepped up their homebuying game last month even as distressed property sales fell, according to the latest Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Tracking Survey. The report shows the HousingPulse Distressed Property Index — a barometer of distressed home sales — fell to 47.3% in February from 49.6% in January.”

Bloomberg – “Treasury to Sell Mortgage-Backed Holdings at Up to $10 Billion Per Month” (3-21-11)

“The U.S. Treasury Department plans to wind down its $142 billion portfolio of mortgage bonds guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac by selling as much as $10 billion per month.”

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

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217-TNG Radio – Leslie Appleton-Young 3-19-11

Friday, March 18th, 2011

Leslie Appleton-Young

Vice President of C.A.R.

(Full Bio)


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This week Bruce is joined by Leslie Appleton-Young. She is the Vice President and Chief Economist for the California Association of Realtors; a statewide trade organization with over 165,000 members. Leslie directs the activities of the association’s member information groups, she oversees the analysis of housing markets and broker industry trends, member communications and member development activities.  She is well known as a speaker in the California real estate community.

Leslie started with CAR in 1984. At that time, California was in the middle of a bad cycle. The biggest difference between our recent downturn and downturns of the past was the change in median home prices. In the early 80s, the median home price flattened when transactions dropped over 60%. In the early 90s, the market contracted 25% and home prices did drop, but the biggest single annual decline was less than 5%. In our recent downturn, the statewide median home price dropped 59% within one year.

In earlier cycles, sellers had equity, so if the market was doing poorly, they would rely on their equity to help them through the bad times. This time around, the flood of non-discretionary sellers overwhelmed the market, and caused the sharp descent in prices.

Surveys from ThinkTank and Fannie Mae show that homeownership is still sought after. The demand for housing from first time buyers and investors is still robust. The idea of owning a home has not been too badly damaged, however, the buyer’s ability to gauge market timing has. People are too worried that prices have not bottomed, so they are waiting until prices stabilize. Leslie also thinks people now realize that buying a home is not going to make them rich quickly.

In 2006, a lot of people were buying homes because they wanted more room, nicer neighborhood, and better school districts. Leslie believes most home buyers are not buying for these reasons any more.

1 in 4 mortgages are underwater today. Leslie believes this will impact the strength of the housing market over the next couple years.

In 2005, net cash to seller was a median of $220,000. Last year it was $35,000. In the distressed sales market, the net cash to seller was around negative $143,000. This means many of those people will not have the necessary cash to buy a home in the near future. A survey showed that only 33% of sellers were planning on re-buying a home in the near future.

When we released 500,000 home sales in 2010, that means we have to manufacture 250,000 buyers that aren’t showing up out of natural causes. Leslie is very glad we have investors to help create buyers for those sales.

Approximately 23% of California home sales are bought for cash. In the luxury markets, those numbers are significantly higher. Bruce read a survey stating that 60% of Beverly Hills homebuyers use all cash in their purchase. Many of the people buying in that area are global home buying clients, and California looks very attractive and affordable to them.

Leslie believes the homebuyer tax credits were the most beneficial of the real estate programs to come from the government. The $8,000 tax credit was very effective at encouraging buyers to enter the market. It also encouraged investors to get their properties ready for potential buyers.

Leslie believes the home market will not receive much federal aid in 2011. Also, the reduction in the $729,000 loan limit will occur this year. She believes the government will go back to a $625,000 loan limit. The government’s efforts to wind-down Fannie and Freddie means financing will be more expensive. However, Fannie and Freddie are not currently expected to be taken away quickly, because the government believes that would negatively impact the economy. Because financing will become more expensive once Fannie and Freddie leave, people will be encouraged to buy sooner rather than later.

Leslie cannot imagine a scenario where interest rates will ever be lower than they are now. Bruce does not think monthly payments for housing will ever be lower. Down payment requirements are going up as well as credit score requirements. This should make people rush to buy.

In January of 2011, there was a 6.7 months supply of homes in the California market. This means that at the pace in which homes were selling during January, it would take over six months to get rid of the entire inventory. The typical average for inventory supply is 6 and 7 months, so that is actually fairly balanced. However, when you break the inventory down by price category, properties priced above 1 million have a 13.8 months supply, $750,000 to $1 million properties have a 9 month supply, $500 to $750 properties have a 7 month supply, $300 to $500 properties have a 6.5 month supply, and under $300,000 is 6.3 months supply. This is a critical piece of information for buyers and sellers.

The most expensive prices have the most discretionary sellers. The more expensive the home, and the more expensive the community, the lower number of distressed sales there will be. Many higher priced sellers also have a lot of equity in their home.

If sellers are discretionary then they are not being forced out of their home. Short sales are considered to be non-discretionary sales. That category is expected to grow considerably. Realtors are hoping lenders will be encouraged to look at short sales in a more positive light. Lenders typically get a higher price for short sales than if the sale goes through foreclosure.

The 6.7 months of inventory does not account for inventory that should be on the market but is not. We have a large number of delinquent properties that should be in foreclosure and entering the market, but are not.

Leslie’s website is www.car.org

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 2/25/11

Friday, February 25th, 2011

Today’s News Synopsis:

The NAR has been caught inflating home sales statistics, and the Commerce Department says new home sales decline 13% in January. FHA REO Inventory has increased 47% from last year. First time homebuyers who received the $7,500 tax credit will be expected to pay it back.

In The News:

Bloomberg - “Home Prices in U.S. Decline 4% on Foreclosures, FHFA Says” (2-24-11)

“U.S. home prices fell 4 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier as record foreclosures sapped the confidence of homebuyers, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency.”

Bloomberg - “Sales of New U.S. Homes Dropped More Than Economists Forecast in January” (2-24-11)

“Sales declined 13 percent to a 284,000 annual pace, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected a decrease to a 305,000 rate. Demand dropped 37 percent in the West and 13 percent in the South.”

Housing Wire – “FHA REO inventory up 47% from one year ago” (2-22-11)

“The Federal Housing Administration held 60,739 properties repossessed through foreclosure on its books as of December 2010, up 47% from the year before.”

Housing Wire – “MERS rights upheld in largest foreclosure state” (2-23-11)

“An appellate judge in California last week upheld the rights of the Mortgage Electronic Registration Systems to the deed of trust, giving MERS the right to foreclose, according to court documents.”

Time - “Did Realtors Inflate Home Sales by 1.6 million in 2010?” (2-22-11)

“The National Association of Realtors said that existing home sales rose 2.7% in January from December, and were up 5.3% from a year ago. It was the first time in seven months that sales rose from the same month a year before. But before you put your home on the market, consider this: It appears the NAR may be inflating homes sales numbers, and not just for this January, but for years.”

Wall Street Journal – “Realtors’ Former Top Economist Says Don’t Blame the Messenger” (2-12-09)

“Mr. Lereah, who says he left NAR voluntarily, says he was pressured by executives to issue optimistic forecasts — then was left to shoulder the blame when things went sour.”

Yahoo - “Obama pushes multibillion-dollar mortgage pact: report” (2-23-11)

“The Obama administration is trying to push a settlement that could force the largest U.S. banks to pay for reductions in loan principal worth billions of dollars following breakdowns in mortgage servicing”

Bloomberg - “U.S. House Republicans Move to End Foreclosure Aid Programs” (2-24-11)

“U.S. House Republicans plan to move forward with bills that would end anti-foreclosure programs put in place by the administration of President Barack Obama, saying they are doing more harm than good.”

New York Daily News – “Payback time for first-time homeowners who took advantage of 2008 tax credit” (2-23-11)

“It sounded like a great deal: become a first-time homebuyer and pocket up to $7,500 in a tax credit. But if you bought that house in 2008 and received the credit, you’re required to start paying it back – now.”

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

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