The Norris Group Blog

Today’s News Synopsis:

According to the NAHB, builder confidence fell for the 3rd straight month. The California Homebuilding Foundation reports the housing industry’s economic output has decreased by nearly 80% since 2005. New rules were released which restrict an originator from receiving compensation based on the interest rate or other loan terms of the mortgage. Michael Carliner of Harvard University believes that the decrease in mortgage rates will not offset the effect of decreasing home values on home buyer pessimism.

In The News:

The Hill – “Banks to benefit most from White House program to help fight foreclosures” (8-15-10)

“‘Giving money to the banks isn’t what the government should be doing right now,’ said Dean Baker, co-founder of the Center for Economic and Policy Research.”

Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis – “Former Bank Regulator William Black: U.S. Using ‘Really Stupid Strategy’ to Hide Bank Losses – Will Produce Japanese Style Lost Decade” (8-15-10)

“we should be upset there are not more bank failures. The industry has used its political muscle to get Congress to extort the financial accounting standards board to gimmick the accounting rules so that banks do not have to recognize their losses.”

USA Money – “Thoughts of real estate double dip deter investors” (8-14-10)

“‘Housing is entering a double dip in prices,’ says Paul Dales, chief economist at the research group, Capital Economics. ‘They are headed down even more over the next 18 months by as much as 5%. Anyone looking for a short term gain by selling a property is heading for trouble.’”

John Burns – “U.S. Housing Market Statistics” (7-31-10)

This article contains a list of economic statistics which influence the housing market.

NAHB - “Builder Confidence Declines In August” (8-16-10)

“Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes edged down for a third consecutive month in August, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today. The HMI declined one point to 13, its lowest level since March of 2009.”

CBIA - “Study Shows Housing Industry’s Economic Output Down 80 Percent Since 2005″ (8-16-10)

“An updated version of The Economic Benefits of Housing report released today by the California Homebuilding Foundation (CHF) in conjunction with the Center for Strategic Economic Research (CSER), confirms that the housing industry’s economic output has fallen approximately 80 percent since 2005, representing a loss of tens of billions of dollars and hundreds of thousands of jobs to the state’s economy.”

Wall Street Journal – “Redfin: Less Than Half of All Home-Sale Attempts Successful in ‘09″ (8-16-10)

“A survey of seven major housing markets found that less than half of all attempts to sell a home in 2009 had, as of last Wednesday, resulted in a sale. The survey looked at how the 500,000 homes that were listed for sale last year in seven of the nation’s biggest counties had fared. Around 47% of those listings had sold by last week, while just 4% of those listings were still active.”

CNBC - “US Banks Get Securities Buy-Back Window” (8-16-10)

“The Dodd-Frank financial reform bill has opened a 90-day window for banks to buy back $118 billion in high-cost securities, a move that would enable them to replace the instruments with cheaper capital but is likely to cause tensions with regulators and investors.”

Housing Wire - “House Price Appreciation Slows in June: CoreLogic” (8-16-10)

“National prices, including distressed sales, rose by 1.4% in June from a year earlier. The yearly appreciation slowed from the 3.7% increase in May from one year earlier. The May increase was revised up from the initial 2.9% estimate.”

Housing Wire – “Fed Publishes Wave of Rules for Mortgage Origination Transparency” (8-16-10)

“The Fed released final rules restricting an originator from receiving compensation based on the interest rate or other loan terms of the mortgage. The new rules apply to mortgage brokers and the companies that employ them, as well as loan officers employed by depository institutions and other lenders.”

Bloomberg - “Your House Might Be Underwater for Years: Michael Carliner” (8-16-10)

“Now we’re seeing the opposite mindset. If a potential buyer believes that housing prices may fall more, then mortgage rates of 4.5 percent won’t attract home buyers. Rates could even drop to zero and it might not outweigh consumers’ negative perceptions. Household expectations of future U.S. home price appreciation aren’t directly measured, and are probably based on recent experience. If expectations reflect changes in home prices over the last three years, for example, consumers seem to anticipate annual house price declines of 3.7 percent to 10.4 percent, depending on which of the various house price indexes is used.”

Orange County Register – “Home closing costs are on the rise” (8-16-10)

“A new survey by Bankrate.com shows closing costs are climbing around the country. The average Good Faith Estimate on a $200,000 mortgage this year is $3,741, up from $2,732 in 2009.”

Orange County Register – “5 O.C. hot spots for home price cuts” (8-16-10)

“According to online home tracker Trulia.com, 32.5% of homes on the O.C. market have seen at least one price reduction as of Aug. 1. That compares to 30% in July. Nationwide, 25% of listings had at least one price trim, with the average reduction 10% off the original asking price.”

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