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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 8/27/10

Friday, August 27th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

Nearly 900,000 loans that were current at the beginning of this year are now over 60 days delinquent or in foreclosure as of July. GDP growth in the U.S. slowed to an annual rate of 1.6% in the second quarter. Commercial property sales totaled $8.7 billion in July.

In The News:

Orange County Register – “Californians feeling a little rosier” (8-27-10)

“Californians are feeling a little better about the economy now, although their optimism about the future has dimmed, according to Chapman University’s August consumer confidence survey. The school’s California Composite Index of Consumer Confidence, conducted the first three weeks of August, rose to 84.2 this month from 82.7 in May — the fourth consecutive increase in the index.”

San Francisco Chronicle – “California foreclosure bill is losing steam” (8-27-10)

“SB1275 would require lenders to provide homeowners with a fully considered decision on a loan modification prior to starting foreclosure. The bill addresses what some say has become a far too common phenomenon for homeowners who are delinquent on their mortgages: While negotiating a loan modification, their lender forecloses. The proposed rules would allow the homeowner to sue if that occurs.”

Housing Wire - “Nearly 1m More Mortgages Go From Current to Delinquent: LPS” (8-26-10)

“Almost 900,000 loans that were current at the beginning of the year are at least 60 days delinquent or in foreclosure as of July, according to the July 2010 month-end report released by Lender Processing Services’(LPS). Although delinquency volume fell 2.3% month-over-month in July to 9.3%, it remains near historically elevated levels — and record high numbers of delinquent loans are still entering the system, according to LPS. The volume of delinquencies increased 1.4% year-over-year.”

Housing Wire – “Q2 GDP revised to annual rate of 1.6% growth, imports rose 32.4%” (8-27-10)

“Second-quarter economic growth in the US slowed to an annual rate of 1.6%, which is slightly better than what analysts were projecting but down from prior Commerce Department estimates.”

Housing Wire – “Bernanke outlines three options for additional economic stimulus” (8-27-10)

“Bernake said that the zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) is unlikely to change in the coming months. He also doesn’t see any short-term risk of deflation. However, federal economic stimulus can only drive recovery temporarily. For a sustained expansion to take hold, growth in consumer spending and business fixed investment needs to come more into focus, he said.”

Housing Wire – “Fitch expects to keep downgrading CMBS through 2012″ (8-27-10)

“Downgrades on commercial mortgage-backed securities are expected throughout the next one to two years, according to Fitch Ratings’ managing director Mary MacNeill. She said this based on the approximately 1,900 bonds, a total of $71bn, that Fitch lists with negative future outlooks.”

Housing Wire – “Commercial real estate gets boost in July from strong office demand: RCA analytics” (8-27-10)

“July was the second most active month in commercial property sales this year, according to a Real Capital Analytics (RCA) report released today. Sales totaled $7.8bn, almost double the volume of July 2009 commercial real estate (CRE) sales.”

Housing Wire – “Fannie Mae July mortgage portfolio up 4.1% from year earlier, prices two-year deal” (8-27-10)

“Fannie Mae’s mortgage portfolio through July is up 4.1% from the year ago yet down somewhat from June, and the GSE issued nearly half the mortgage-backed securities during the month than in did last July. Fannie ended July with gross holdings of nearly $812 billion. That figure stood at $770.4 billion last year and $817.8 billion in June.”

Bloomberg – “Banks Need New Capital on Housing Dip, Whitney Says” (8-27-10)

“U.S. banks need more capital to withstand a renewed drop in the housing market, according to analyst Meredith Whitney. Banks aren’t prepared for a ‘double-dip’ in housing, which ‘it looks like we are having,’ Whitney said today on Bloomberg Radio”

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189-TNG Radio – Christopher Thornberg 8-28-10

Friday, August 27th, 2010

christopher-thornberg

Christopher Thornberg

Founder and Principle of Beacon Economics


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September 17th, 2010, The Norris Group returns with its award winning event I Survived Real Estate 2010. The Norris Group has assembled an incredible line up of industry experts to discuss the state of REO from the inside. Topics will include regulatory intervention and aftermath, bulk buying, myths and facts, and opportunities emerging for real estate professionals. 100 percent of the proceeds support the Orange County affiliate of Susan G. Komen for the Cure. This event would not be possible without generous help from the following platinum partners: Foreclosure Radar and Sean O’Toole, the San Diego Creative Real Estate Investors Association and Bill Tan, Investors Workshops and Shawn Watkins and Angel Bronsgeest, Invest Club for Women and Iris Veneracion and Bobby Alexander, Claudia Buys Houses, The Business Press, Frye Wiles, MVT Productions, and White House Catering.

This week Bruce is joined by Christopher Thornberg. Christopher is the founding principle of Beacon Economics, and is widely considered to be one of California’s leading economic forecasters. He is an expert in economic forecasting, regional development, real estate dynamics and labor markets. He was one of the earliest and most adamant predictors of the housing crash and the recession that followed. In 2008, he was appointed chief economist for the California State Controller as well as the Controller’s Council of Economic Advisors. He serves on the advisor board of Paulson & Company Inc., one of Wall Street’s most successful hedge funds. Dr. Thornberg holds a PhD in business economics from the Anderson school of UCLA, and a BS in business administration from the state university of New York at Buffalo.

Public sentiment tends to wander between optimistic and pessimistic. No one wants to believe that this recovery might be too slow. Instead, people either hope for a rapid recovery, or they panic over a double dip. Earlier in the year, people were far too optimistic about a rapid recovery, and now they are in a state of unwarranted pessimism. Thornberg does not believe that either of those beliefs are true. He believes that slow growth is most likely going to occur.

Expectations can have an economic impact. Forecasters tend to think that the stock market is a leading indicator of the economy. Paul Samuelson once said “The stock market has predicted 9 out of the last 5 recessions.” We must remember that when we see market swings, it has a material impact on the economy. When the market dumps 15 percent, you are literally talking about a couple trillion dollars in wealth disappearing from the U.S. economy. That does have an influence on spending, particularly at the top end of the income scale. From that perspective, unwarranted worries can create a self fulfilling prophecy and slow the economy.

Over the last 20 years, we have seen unprecedented volatility in the equity markets. We would help ourselves by putting in some rules to dampen that volatility. Thornberg describes the problem as “the tail controlling the economic dog”.

GDP growth in the 90s was caused by stocks. In 2000, it was from real estate equity withdrawal and profits. Currently, our limited growth seems to come from stimulus money. Thornberg does not believe there will be any sort of big driver, and that is part of the reason we will have a slow recovery.

In the mid 70s, there was a consumer let down with the oil shock. Consumers responded to the loss of jobs, high energy prices, and the overall pessimism by cutting back on spending, and that caused a down turn. At the back end of that down turn, consumers who were under-spending started to ramp up their income. They then bought the car they would have bought during the down turn plus another one. That caused a huge surge in consumer spending growth.

Similarly, in the 2001 down turn, we saw a cycle in business spending. Business spending was very high, and then it collapsed. When business spending came back in 2002, we pulled out of the down turn and we got back to normal growth in 2003.

This time, there is no single great source that will cause us to bounce back. The economy was vastly overheated in 2008, and the pain of the down turn was severe, because the pull back occurred in multiple markets at one time. The government got massively involved in both monetary and fiscal policy. In their attempt to stabilize things, they prevented our imbalances from returning to a steady state.

Consumer spending should represent about 80 percent of income, and the other 20 percent should go to savings, taxes and a couple other things. In the midst of the asset bubble, we went from 80 to 84 percent. That extra 4 percent represents approximately half a trillion dollars in excess spending. Savings rates have popped back up in the midst of the crisis, which is good, but the pain of that decline in consumer spending was profound on the economy. As a result, part of the stimulus package was a huge cut in taxes. Right now, Americans are the lowest tax rate in 65 years. This has steadied consumer spending at 82 percent of income. The government is running a deficit of $1.4 trillion per year. At some point, the government will have to raise taxes. When they raise taxes, consumers are going to have to cut back on spending, and that will slow the economy.

We have a lot of deleveraging going on. 23 percent of Riverside is not making a house payment. Because so many people aren’t making their house payments, Bruce believes that people will have plenty of money to spend. Thornberg disagrees, because he does not feel that the money saved from not paying mortgages will amount to that much. Mortgage payments in the U.S. amount to 15 percent of income. Thornberg believes the non-payment of mortgages only adds up to .5 percent of personal income. That is a much smaller number than what happens to personal income as a result of the rise and fall of the unemployment rate.

Bruce explains that in California, a house payment typically represents 40% of someone’s gross. When they don’t make mortgage payments, that saves money, and that fuels GDP. Thornberg understands this, but 1/3 of homeowners in California homeowners own their house free and clear. Of the 2/3rds that are left, the majority are still making their payments. You only have 10 percent of the people in the state that aren’t making their payments. Thornberg does believe that this will make a small difference in the economy, but it is not as significant as people make it out to be.

Bruce asks, “What does seeing a 2.6 10-year T-build tell you?” Thornberg laughs and exclaims that the t-builds are in a bubble. You got to call it as you see it. Sometimes that works and sometimes it doesn’t. A few years ago, Thornberg claimed the housing market was going to crash, and he was right. One of the worst forecasts Thornberg ever made happened 3 months ago when he claimed that interest rates would never go lower. Thornberg has seen some crazy things happen lately. He never could have forecasted this. He believes these things have been driven by worries about sovereign debt in Europe, and a potential for a double dip. This is why Bruce asked his question about Thornberg’s expectations for the t-build, because people’s fears have skewed a lot of categories.

The raw ratio of prices to income will show you that we have not seen a level of retraction that brings us back to the levels we were at in 2000. Prices are still high in comparison to income, but once you adjust for interest rates, affordability levels have never been this great. We have never seen such an affordable housing market when considering current interest rates. Thornberg does not believe that the current interest rates will be maintained. They are going to rise, but he wonders when they will rise and how fast they will rise. If we are on the path to recovery, we could have problems if the credit bubble pops rapidly. If interest rates increase 4.5% to 6.5% in 6 months, then it will severely damage the housing market.

Fannie Mae is planning to hire 1,000 REO agents in Southern California. This tells Bruce that Fannie intends to release inventory; perhaps as soon as the 4th quarter. FHA has 73,000 REOs and 555,000 people that are 90 days late. There are a lot of properties that the bank has not released, but we also have to be concerned about the properties that the banks are not foreclosing on yet. There are probably 4 to 5 million homeowners that are behind on their payments.

Because affordability is so good right now, there will probably be some demand for the shadow inventory. One thing that distinguishes California from states live Nevada, Florida and Arizona is the fact that we did not over build. Nevada and Florida have years of home supply.

Rental vacancies typically stay high after a recession, but vacancies are actually starting to drop quite quickly, especially in California. Thornberg does not believe there will be enough inventory in California, so when the shadow inventory gets released, it will probably be easily picked up. Thornberg believes we will have a stronger housing market over the next couple years because of the inventory levels in relation to the population. It surprised Bruce to hear Thornberg speak so positively about the housing market.

Bruce and Thornberg do not believe we have pent-up demand, but Thornberg does believe that we have a lack of overall supply. When you look at permits over the past 20 years, the numbers show that we have not built enough housing relative to the population growth since 1995. Even in the midst of the bubble, Thornberg believes we were only building an amount that was appropriate for our population growth.

The builders do not have many vacant unsold homes right now, but their competition, which is an REO, is going to be much to competitive. This competition will force them to build smaller houses. Going forward, Bruce believes that vacant homes are going to increase a tremendous amount. Thornberg does not believe prices will come back a lot.

The kind of building going on right now is on the basis of already finished lots. The inventory of finished but unused lots is disappearing rapidly. In the peak of the housing bubble, local economies ramped up fees. Given what people were willing to pay, there were enormous profits to be made in the sale of a new home. Now that the bubble is gone, cities need to reduce their fees, but they probably won’t. Right now, local governments have a lot of pressure placed on them because of the down turn in revenues. Thornberg believes we will have crowded housing, because many people will not be able to purchase new property due to the excessive fees.

In a down turn, people tend to start living together rather than moving out. This is actually starting to change, which is part of the reason why apartment vacancies are going down. We are not in a strong recovery, but it has been a year since the recession ended. Things have stabilized, and fears are beginning to lift.

Overall, jobs are down right now, but that is mainly due to losses in the public sector. Construction jobs actually bounced a decent amount from June to July. Thornberg does not believe the construction industry will come roaring back to what is was like 5 or 6 years ago, but we are seeing more stability in that sector.

Here are the pros and cons of our current situation: On the con side, we still have problems in the housing market. Many people are not making payments and many are underwater. California has some of the worst unemployment rates, which means we have more to recover from. On the pro side, prior to this down turn, this state was driven by internal demand. This means that our demand was coming from consumers with excessive amounts of false housing equity. At the same time, our external sources of growth were getting hammered. The dollar was over-valued and housing was too expensive, which made it hard to run a business here. Those internal sources of demand will not come back. On the other hand, with a weaker U.S. dollar and cheaper housing, other things will begin to improve. Despite our high unemployment rate, people are beginning to migrate back to California.

The percentage of homeownership is probably headed down. Thornberg does not believe that this is a real concern. He does not believe there are any particular benefits for owning vs renting.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 8/26/10

Thursday, August 26th, 2010

 

 

Today’s News Synopsis:

The MBA’s second quarter survey shows the delinquency rate for mortgage loans on residential properties dropped to 9.85 percent. Freddie Mac reports that interest rates have dropped AGAIN to 4.36%. According to CoreLogic, 23 percent of residential homes with mortgages were in negative equity at the end of the 2nd quarter. Barclays Capital claims existing home sales decreased 30% last month.

In The News:

NAR - “Commercial Real Estate Remains Soft but Favors Business Expansion” (8-26-10)

“The SIOR index, measuring 10 variables, rose 2.8 percentage points to 41.0 in the second quarter, but remains well below a level of 100 that represents a balanced marketplace.  This is the third consecutive quarterly improvement after nearly three years of decline; the last time the commercial market was in equilibrium at the 100 level was in the third quarter of 2007.”

MBA - “Delinquencies and Foreclosure Starts Decrease in Latest MBA National Delinquency Survey” (8-26-10)

“The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties dropped to a seasonally adjusted rate of 9.85 percent of all loans outstanding as of the end of the second quarter of 2010, a decrease of 21 basis points from the first quarter of 2010, and an increase of 61 basis points from one year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey. The non-seasonally adjusted delinquency rate increased two basis points to 9.40 percent this quarter from 9.38 percent last quarter.”

Los Angeles Times – “Home loan rates drop yet again to record low” (8-26-10)

“Freddie Mac said rates for both 30-year and 15-year fixed mortgages dropped for the ninth time in the past 10 weeks. The mortgage giant’s weekly survey said the average rate that lenders were offering on the 30-year loan was 4.36% during the week that ended Thursday, down from 4.42% a week earlier and 5.14% a year ago. Borrowers would have paid 0.7% of the loan amount in upfront lender fees.”

Housing Wire – “Ranks of Underwater Borrowers Decline, Thanks to Foreclosure” (8-26-10)

“The number of Americans that owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth declined during the second quarter of 2010, but not because home prices have improved. Instead, according to a new report, increased foreclosures have helped flush underwater borrowers out of the nation’s housing markets. According to a report from information services provider CoreLogic (CLGX: 17.77 +0.28%) released Thursday morning, 11 million — or 23% — of all residential properties with mortgages were in a negative equity position at the end of the second quarter.”

Housing Wire – “Amherst Sees HARP Failing Over Fees” (8-26-10)

“The Home Affordable Refinance Program, which started early last year, was supposed to ’solve the key inhibitor to many borrowers refinancing in our current housing market – negative equity,’ the research firm’s MBS strategy group said in its most-recent mortgage insight report. However, high levels of due diligence and onerous fees for borrowers mean that those who should get the refi, likely won’t.”

Housing Wire – “Fed Buys $1.41bn of Treasuries” (8-26-10)

“The Federal Reserve purchased $1.41 billion of Treasury debt Thursday, including $1.14 billion of notes maturing in November 2021.”

Housing Wire – “Freddie Mac Mortgage Purchases and Issuances Fall in July, 2010 Total Pushes $207bn” (8-26-10)

“Mortgage purchases and issuance at government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) Freddie Mac fell to nearly $28.4bn, from $30.9bn in June — bringing the year-to-date totally to $207.4bn so far in 2010. Refinance-loan purchase and guarantee volume at Freddie fell to $18.1bn in July, from $19.1bn in June, according to the firm’s monthly volume summary (download here). The aggregate unpaid principal balance of the GSE’s mortgage-related investments decreased by $13.6bn.”

Housing Wire – “Barclays Capital Expects Home Prices to Dip Another 7%” (8-26-10)

“Existing home sales plummeted 30% in July after the homebuyer tax credit brought forward 300,000 to 600,000 of housing demand, assuming 4 million homes sell annually, according to research today from Barclays Capital.”

Housing Wire – “Weekly Initial Jobless Claims Down 6.1% to 473,000″ (8-26-10)

“The Labor Department said Thursday that seasonally-adjusted initial claims slid to 473,000 last week, down from an upwardly revised 504,000 for the previous week. Briefing.com consensus had expected claims to drop to 485,000.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, the NAR reported nearly one-third of all existing homes sales were either short sales or foreclosures. Home sales in July 2009 increased by 30 percent from January 2009. Office space availability increased in the second quarter of 2009 in Orange County.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor event calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 8/24/10

Tuesday, August 24th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

Existing home sales experienced a dramatic decrease of 27.2 percent in July, according to the NAR. Housing production decreased by 10 percent in June. The CAR reports California home sales decreased 20.8 percent in July. Statistics from the California Employment Development Department show that 7,100 jobs were lost from July 2009.

In The News:

NAR - “July Existing-Home Sales Fall as Expected but Prices Rise” (8-24-10)

“Existing-home sales1, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, dropped 27.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.83 million units in July from a downwardly revised 5.26 million in June, and are 25.5 percent below the 5.14 million-unit level in July 2009.”

CBIA - “California Housing Production Increases in July, CBIA Announces” (8-24-10)

“According to statistics compiled by the Construction Industry Research Board (CIRB), permits were pulled for 4,165 total housing units in July, up 35 percent from the same month a year ago but down 10 percent from June. Permits for single-family homes totaled 1,951, down 9 percent from July 2009 and down 31 percent from the previous month, while multifamily permits totaled 2,214, up 134 percent from a year ago and up 25 percent from May.”

Mortgage Bankers Association – “Wells Fargo Tops U.S. Commercial/Multifamily Servicers in MBA Mid-Year Rankings Report” (8-24-10)

“The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its mid-year ranking of commercial and multifamily mortgage servicers as of the end of June 30, 2010. Topping the list of firms is Wells Fargo with $462.8 billion in U.S. master and primary servicing, followed by PNC Real Estate/Midland Loan Services with $307.9 billion, Berkadia Commercial Mortgage with $202.6 billion, Bank of America Merrill Lynch with $133.4 billion and KeyBank Real Estate Capital with $124.7 billion.”

CAR - “July sales and price report” (8-24-10)

“California home sales decreased 20.8 percent in July compared with the same period a year ago, while the median price of an existing home rose 10.4 percent from July 2009, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) reported today.”

Housing Wire – “Disappointing Homes Sales Unlikely to Reverse Course” (8-24-10)

“Predictions that home prices may drop into double digits continue to drag down sales. Bill Gross, managing director of the world’s biggest bond fund, PIMCO remarked that the idea of a rebound anytime soon is ‘ludicrous.’ In a meeting at the US Treasury last week, Gross called for combining the government-sponsored entities into one entity that insures the majority of current and future originations.”

Housing Wire – “60% of Delinquent Mortgages Not in Loss Mitigation” (8-24-10)

“According to a study from the State Foreclosure Prevention Working Group (SFPWG), 60% of borrowers with mortgages delinquent by 60 days or more are not being forwarded to the servicer’s loss mitigation department.”

Bloomberg - “Purchases of Existing Homes in U.S. Probably Slumped in July” (8-24-10)

“Sales of U.S. previously owned homes probably plunged in July to the lowest level since March 2009, evidence the market is restrained by foreclosures and limited job growth, economists said before a report today. Purchases dropped 13.4 percent from June to a 4.65 million annual rate, according to the median of 73 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. A decline would be the third in a row.”

Orange County Register – “Corona del Mar is O.C.’s ‘coldest’ market” (8-24-10)

“The pricier the town, the harder it is to sell a home there right now, the latest O.C. home inventory report from Steve Thomas at Altera Real Estate shows. Corona del Mar, for example, was Orange County’s ‘coldest’ market in the past 30 days. In theory, it would take 11 1/2 months to sell all the homes on the market there at the current sales pace, the highest ‘market time’ for any O.C. community in the 30 days ending on Aug. 19. Other ‘cold’ markets likewise tend to be home to some of O.C.’s most expensive housing.”

Orange County Register – “Real estate, building jobs down 5% in July” (8-24-10)

“Indeed, construction suffered the largest year-over-year decline among every employment category, the state Employment Development Department reported. Construction jobs fell by 7,100 positions from July 2009, down nearly 10%. Construction jobs totaled 65,700 in July, state figures show.”

Orange County Register – “Broker: No tsunami of repo’d homes to hit market” (8-24-10)

“This shadow inventory has to be worked through, but is not going to occur as a tsunami of distressed properties to hit the market all at once. Instead, we are going to witness slow increases and drops over the next few years. This slow absorption will not pull down values like it did at the beginning of this downturn and it will keep a lid on any substantial appreciation. Once employment improves, the pathway to an eventual healthy and stable recovery will occur.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, 45,079 new and resale houses and condos were sold statewide in one month. Home sales in the Bay Area hit a 4 year high. The Federal Reserve accepted $2.3 billion in investor requests for financing to purchase legacy commercial mortgage-backed securities.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor event calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 8/23/10

Monday, August 23rd, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

The CBIA reports 2,454 new homes and condominiums were closed statewide in June, compared to 3,848 a year earlier. A survey from Trulia shows that 68% of renters believe they will have to wait at least two years before even considering buying a home. According to HUD, 616,839 HAMP modifications have been canceled and 434,716 modifications have been made permanent since the program began. The Congressional Budget Office expects the Troubled Asset Relief Program to cost a total of $66bn.

In The News:

Daily Bulletin - “Uncertain times” (8-19-10)

“Norris said a larger number of expensive homes thrown into the mix of homes sold this year may be skewing the median price up, rather than an overall price increase in homes. Norris also said home affordability is ‘off the charts’ but it does not necessarily translate to a greater demand to buy homes. Because of the real estate crash, more people are afraid to go to the finish line with home purchases, he said.”

CBIA - “California New-Home Market Continues Struggle in June, CBIA Announces” (8-23-10)

“The monthly CBIA/Hanley Wood Market Intelligence (HWMI) New-Home Sales and Pricing Report showed that statewide new-home closings in June were off 36 percent from a year ago. During the month, 2,454 new homes and condominiums were closed across the state, compared to 3,848 a year earlier. Closings of single-family homes were down by 17 percent, while sales of townhomes were off by 57 percent and sales of condominiums were 67 percent lower than a year ago.”

Orange County Register – “Landlords pray for jobs” (8-21-10)

“I’m still concerned about future job growth and global market conditions that we don’t have control over. Unfortunately, our improvement is a condition of the housing and credit markets and reduced multifamily inventory, not significant job growth. Would-be home buyers who are no longer able to qualify to purchase a home, former home owners who lost their homes and new wage earners are sustaining our improved fundamentals. We will need consistent and sustainable job growth going forward.”

Orange County Register – “A good time to be a landlord?” (8-22-10)

“A new survey by Trulia.com shows that 1 in 4 renters say they’ll never purchase a home, and of those who will, 68% say it’ll take more than a couple of years to happen.”

Housing Wire – “Housing’s Second Leg Down” (8-23-10)

“Home prices have fallen 34% from their peak in the middle of 2006, according to Standard & Poor’s HPI data — but is that enough? Or is there further to go? How much further could we fall?”

Housing Wire – “HAMP Trial Cancelations Catching up to Permanent Modifications” (8-23-10)

“The Making Home Affordable Program (HAMP) initiated 1.3m trials as of July 2010, but is having difficulty retaining program participants through the process of making their modifications permanent. According to the July Servicer Performance Report released by the US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), 616,839 modifications have been canceled while 434,716 modifications have been made permanent throughout the program’s lifetime.”

Housing Wire – “TARP Losses Recalculated to $66bn as GSE Outlook Improves” (8-23-10)

“The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected Friday the total cost of Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) over its lifetime would be $66bn. This is down from the $109bn lifetime cost projected in March. Outlays for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will fall from $96bn in 2009 to $41bn this year, the CBO estimates, mostly because the two entities are expected to recognize fewer losses on their mortgage investments and guarantees.”

Housing Wire – “Econoday Reports Swings in Housing Starts Due To Multifamily Volatility” (8-23-10)

“July housing starts rose 1.7% to 546,000 from June’s revised figure of 537,000, which is the lowest level since October. The June revision and volatility in the multifamily component led to the monthly gain, according to Mark Rogers, senior economist at the Calif.-based research firm.”

Housing Wire – “Monday Morning Cup of Coffee” (8-23-10)

“The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) released Friday a list of Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) performance evaluations for 39 national banks and insured federal branches of foreign banks. Of the banks, nine received an outstanding rating, 30 received a satisfactory rating and none needed to improve. None were of substantial noncompliance.”

Housing Wire – “Strengthening CRE Market Pushes Defeasance Levels Up: Moody’s” (8-23-10)

“Moody’s said loans originally secured by multi-family properties saw the highest level of defeasance during the first six months, accounting for 46% of total defeasance. Retail properties represented 22% of all defeasance for the period with lodging properties at 17%. And 61% of all defeased loans during the period had two years or less remaining on the loan. Defeasance activity is when a borrower in a commercial real estate securitization substitutes some type of capital-generating collateral – often Treasury securities – in lieu of a hard payment.”

Bloomberg - “Bernanke Must Raise Benchmark Rate 2 Points, Rajan Says” (8-23-10)

“Raghuram Rajan accurately warned central bankers in 2005 of a potential financial crisis if banks lost confidence in each other. Now the International Monetary Fund’s former chief economist says the Federal Reserve should consider raising rates, even as almost 10 percent of the U.S. workforce remains unemployed.”

Bloomberg - “Housing Slide in U.S. Threatens to Drag Economy Into Recession” (8-23-10)

“‘If foreclosures continue to mount and depress home prices, that could send the economy back into a recession,’ said Celia Chen, an economist who tracks the industry for Moody’s Analytics Inc.”

Orange County Register – “‘How to torpedo your short sale’” (8-23-10)

“Many of the lenders won’t pay past due HOA dues, and the short sale can’t be closed without bringing the HOA dues current. If you can, keep your HOA dues current or plan to bring money to close to pay for them.  Sometimes the lender will pay them, sometimes the buyer will, and sometimes we need can succesfully negotiate the amount, but late HOA dues can torpedo a short sale on your Orange County home.”

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor event calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 8/18/10

Wednesday, August 18th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

HAMP’s permanent loan modifications increased 5.9% by the Bank of America, while the number of applications for mortgages increased 13%.  On the same note, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association the number fo refinancings for mortgages increased 17.1% in the previous week, while the amount of people filing for bankruptcy increased 20%.  Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac began searching for any bad loans or dishonest loan applications, while in other news Barney Frank believes Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac should no longer be allowed to operate.  However, there are no current plans for this to happen as the White House is trying to fix the problems.  Also, as the demand on homes decreases, the merging and aquisition of homebuilders may rise.  On a similar note, Veri-tax is now owned by  Blue Horizon Capital.  Finally, the Fed’s have come up with a plan to prepare for an increasing decline in the economy by using money made from securities to buy Treasuries.

In The News:

Housing Wire – “Bank of America Permanent HAMP Modifications Increase 5.9% in July” (8-18-10)

“Bank of America (BAC: 13.4305 +1.67%) pushed its total number of permanent mortgage workouts under the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) to 76,300 in July, a 5.9% increase from June.”

Bloomberg - “U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index Rose 13% Last Week on Refinancing” (8-18-10)

“The number of mortgage applications in the U.S. increased last week, propelled by a surge in refinancing as borrowing costs hovered near record lows.  The Mortgage Bankers Association’s index rose 13 percent in the week ended Aug. 13, the Washington-based group said today. Refinancing jumped 17 percent to reach the highest level since May 2009, while purchases fell 3.4 percent.”

DSNews -“MIT Commercial Property Price Index Posts 17% Gain in Q2″ (8-18-10)

“Transaction prices of commercial properties sold by major institutional investors surged over 17 percent in the second quarter of 2010, according to an index developed and published by the Center for Real Estate at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).”

CNBC - “Phase Out Fannie & Freddie Over Time: Rep. Frank” (8-18-10)

“Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac should be abolished but this has to be done over a period of time, Rep. Barney Frank, chairman of the House Financial Services committee, told CNBC on Tuesday.  Frank agreed that phasing out the housing behemoths would help bolster private mortgage financing, but stressed that the process would take time.”

Bloomberg - “Homebuilder Mergers Loom as `Elephant in Room,’ Citigroup Says” (8-18-10)

“Homebuilder takeovers may increase as tumbling demand for new houses and a faltering U.S. economic recovery spur companies to consolidate to gain market share, according to Citigroup Inc.”

RisMedia - “The Real Estate Book Introduces New Search Tool for House Hunters on the Go, Launches App for iPhone, iTouch, iPad” (8-18-10)

“For on-the-go home buyers, The Real Estate Book / RealEstateBook.com, the leading publisher of real estate information online and in print in North America, launches a new application that provides iPhone, iPod Touch and iPad users with access to all its listings – millions of homes for sale across the U.S. and around the world.”

DSNews - “Private Investment Firm Acquires Veri-tax” (8-18-10)

“Blue Horizon Capital, a private investment firm based in Los Angeles, California, acquired Tustin, California-headquartered Veri-tax LLC late last month.  A provider of tax verification and fraud management solutions for the mortgage lending and consumer credit industry, Veri-tax clients include two of the nation’s top four banks, as well as a slew of other lenders, originators, and financial institutions.”

Wall Street Journal - “Banks Face Fight Over Mortgage-Loan Buybacks” (8-18-10)

“While mortgage delinquencies are easing, banks are facing a new round of losses from loans made just before the financial crisis, and the fight to keep them off their balance sheets is intensifying.  Leading the charge to make originators repurchase their loans are Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two government-owned finance agencies that guaranteed the mortgages. The firms are sorting through delinquent loans for signs of any violations of the representations and warranties, known as “reps and warranties.” In essence, they are looking for lies made by borrowers or lenders in loan applications.”

DSNews - ”Industry Stakeholders Descend on Washington to Debate GSE Reform” (8-18-10)

“Will Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac still be here in three years? Or will they be replaced by a new federal mortgage agency? Will the government begin a grand exodus from the housing market and leave the American Dream to the private sector?”

Orange County Register - “Realogy CEO Takes Part in U.S. Government Conference on the Future of Housing Finance” (8-18-10)

“Lenders seized fewer homes in July for a third straight month, repossessing nearly 10% fewer homes than in June.  Meanwhile, default notices filed against homeowners who have missed three or more house payments increased 9% last month from June’s levels.”

DSNews - “Rapidly Rising Inventory, Home Price Pressures in Store: Altos Research” (8-18-10)

“Real estate data provider Altos Research says its newest housing market report confirms what the company has been saying for some time: the mini “boom” of this spring was created by seasonal demand, with some extra help from the federal homebuyer tax credits.”

Housing Wire – “Falling Housing Prices Drag Down Consumer Spending for 3rd Straight Month: Deloitte” (8-18-10)

“The Deloitte Consumer Spending Index, which tracks consumer cash flow to predict future spending, declined for the third straight month in July due to weaknesses in the post-tax credit housing market.”

DSNews - “TransUnion: Mortgage Delinquencies Drop for Second Straight Quarter” (8-18-10)

“The national mortgage loan delinquency rate – measuring the ratio of borrowers 60 or more days behind on their home loan payments – fell again in the second quarter of 2010, suggesting the credit conditions in the housing sector have begun to stabilize, according to TransUnion.”

RisMedia - “Builders Shrink Homes to Fit Buyers’ Newly Modest Tastes” (8-18-10)

“Realogy Corporation, a global provider of real estate and relocation services, announced that its chief executive officer Richard A. Smith traveled to Washington, D.C., today to participate in the Conference on the Future of Housing Finance. The invitation-only event is being hosted by Secretary of the Treasury Timothy Geithner and Secretary of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Shaun Donovan.”

“The Fed’s move to begin buying long-term Treasuries with proceeds from maturing mortgage-backed securities opens up the possibility of quantitative easing if the economy declines further, according to Deutsche Bank.”

CNBC - “Call for Careful Overhaul of US Mortgage Lending” (8-18-10)

“The US does not intend to wind down completely Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the large government-sponsored mortgage companies that are eating up billions of taxpayer dollars, given the fragile state of the housing market.”

CNBC - “White House Taking Steps to Fix Fannie and Feddie” (8-18-10)

WebCPA - Bankruptcy Filings Jump 20 Percent (8-18-10)

“Bankruptcy filings rose 20 percent in the 12-month period ending June 30, 2010, the highest number of bankruptcy filings for any period since many of the provisions of the Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005 took effect.”
For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 8/16/10

Monday, August 16th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

According to the NAHB, builder confidence fell for the 3rd straight month. The California Homebuilding Foundation reports the housing industry’s economic output has decreased by nearly 80% since 2005. New rules were released which restrict an originator from receiving compensation based on the interest rate or other loan terms of the mortgage. Michael Carliner of Harvard University believes that the decrease in mortgage rates will not offset the effect of decreasing home values on home buyer pessimism.

In The News:

The Hill – “Banks to benefit most from White House program to help fight foreclosures” (8-15-10)

“‘Giving money to the banks isn’t what the government should be doing right now,’ said Dean Baker, co-founder of the Center for Economic and Policy Research.”

Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis – “Former Bank Regulator William Black: U.S. Using ‘Really Stupid Strategy’ to Hide Bank Losses – Will Produce Japanese Style Lost Decade” (8-15-10)

“we should be upset there are not more bank failures. The industry has used its political muscle to get Congress to extort the financial accounting standards board to gimmick the accounting rules so that banks do not have to recognize their losses.”

USA Money – “Thoughts of real estate double dip deter investors” (8-14-10)

“‘Housing is entering a double dip in prices,’ says Paul Dales, chief economist at the research group, Capital Economics. ‘They are headed down even more over the next 18 months by as much as 5%. Anyone looking for a short term gain by selling a property is heading for trouble.’”

John Burns – “U.S. Housing Market Statistics” (7-31-10)

This article contains a list of economic statistics which influence the housing market.

NAHB - “Builder Confidence Declines In August” (8-16-10)

“Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes edged down for a third consecutive month in August, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today. The HMI declined one point to 13, its lowest level since March of 2009.”

CBIA - “Study Shows Housing Industry’s Economic Output Down 80 Percent Since 2005″ (8-16-10)

“An updated version of The Economic Benefits of Housing report released today by the California Homebuilding Foundation (CHF) in conjunction with the Center for Strategic Economic Research (CSER), confirms that the housing industry’s economic output has fallen approximately 80 percent since 2005, representing a loss of tens of billions of dollars and hundreds of thousands of jobs to the state’s economy.”

Wall Street Journal – “Redfin: Less Than Half of All Home-Sale Attempts Successful in ‘09″ (8-16-10)

“A survey of seven major housing markets found that less than half of all attempts to sell a home in 2009 had, as of last Wednesday, resulted in a sale. The survey looked at how the 500,000 homes that were listed for sale last year in seven of the nation’s biggest counties had fared. Around 47% of those listings had sold by last week, while just 4% of those listings were still active.”

CNBC - “US Banks Get Securities Buy-Back Window” (8-16-10)

“The Dodd-Frank financial reform bill has opened a 90-day window for banks to buy back $118 billion in high-cost securities, a move that would enable them to replace the instruments with cheaper capital but is likely to cause tensions with regulators and investors.”

Housing Wire - “House Price Appreciation Slows in June: CoreLogic” (8-16-10)

“National prices, including distressed sales, rose by 1.4% in June from a year earlier. The yearly appreciation slowed from the 3.7% increase in May from one year earlier. The May increase was revised up from the initial 2.9% estimate.”

Housing Wire – “Fed Publishes Wave of Rules for Mortgage Origination Transparency” (8-16-10)

“The Fed released final rules restricting an originator from receiving compensation based on the interest rate or other loan terms of the mortgage. The new rules apply to mortgage brokers and the companies that employ them, as well as loan officers employed by depository institutions and other lenders.”

Bloomberg - “Your House Might Be Underwater for Years: Michael Carliner” (8-16-10)

“Now we’re seeing the opposite mindset. If a potential buyer believes that housing prices may fall more, then mortgage rates of 4.5 percent won’t attract home buyers. Rates could even drop to zero and it might not outweigh consumers’ negative perceptions. Household expectations of future U.S. home price appreciation aren’t directly measured, and are probably based on recent experience. If expectations reflect changes in home prices over the last three years, for example, consumers seem to anticipate annual house price declines of 3.7 percent to 10.4 percent, depending on which of the various house price indexes is used.”

Orange County Register – “Home closing costs are on the rise” (8-16-10)

“A new survey by Bankrate.com shows closing costs are climbing around the country. The average Good Faith Estimate on a $200,000 mortgage this year is $3,741, up from $2,732 in 2009.”

Orange County Register – “5 O.C. hot spots for home price cuts” (8-16-10)

“According to online home tracker Trulia.com, 32.5% of homes on the O.C. market have seen at least one price reduction as of Aug. 1. That compares to 30% in July. Nationwide, 25% of listings had at least one price trim, with the average reduction 10% off the original asking price.”

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 8/13/10

Friday, August 13th, 2010

 

 

Video Blog Sources:

ABC News – “Housing Summit May Yield Fannie and Freddie Clues” (8-12-10) To air on  Treasury website Tuesday.

Sacramento Bee –  “Californias’ Income Falls For First Time Since WWII” (8-11-10)

Los Angeles Times – “Fed to resume buying Treasury bonds” (8-11-10)

Foreclosure Radar Report – www.foreclosureradar.com

Inman – “FHA premium changes pushed to Oct. 4″ (8-12-10) 

Today’s News Synopsis:

Equity from the boom has now disappeared and many homeowners are deciding not to pay what they owe. Builders are shrinking the size of new projects as fewer consumers want McMansions. Moody’s sees increasing weakness in the commercial market and the U.S. government appears not to be sure how to move forward to avoid the much talked about double dip recession.

In The News:

New York Times - “Debts Rise, and Go Unpaid, as Bust Erodes Home Equity” (8-11-10)

“During the great housing boom, homeowners nationwide borrowed a trillion dollars from banks, using the soaring value of their houses as security. Now the money has been spent and struggling borrowers are unable or unwilling to pay it back.”

RisMedia - “Builders Shrink Homes to Fit Buyers’ Newly Modest Tastes” (8-13-10)

“I do believe the younger generation isn’t looking to build mansions anymore,” Palazzolo said. “They are looking at simpler lives. They aren’t looking for the same houses that the baby boomers were.”

AP - “Homes lost to foreclosure up 6 pct from last year” (8-12-10)

“The number of U.S. homes lost to foreclosure surged in July, another sign lenders are moving quicker to take back properties from homeowners behind in payments. Lenders repossessed 92,858 properties last month, up 9 percent from June and an increase of 6 percent from July 2009, foreclosure listing firm RealtyTrac Inc. said Thursday.”

Market Watch - “Monetary policy in a time of deleveraging” (8-11-10)

“The U.S. economy is on the edge of the cliff, threatening to plunge back into ruinous recession, but the worst part is that Washington won’t do anything to stop it. ”

Bloomberg - “Related News:Opinion · Insurance · Retail .U.S. Is Bankrupt and We Don’t Even Know It: Laurence Kotlikoff” (8-10-10)

“Let’s get real. The U.S. is bankrupt. Neither spending more nor taxing less will help the country pay its bills.”

Housing Wire – “Fifth Third Converts 70% of HAMP Trials to Permanent Status” (8-13-10)

“Fifth Third Mortgage Co., the mortgage unit of Fifth Third Bancorp, so far converted 70% of its trial Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) plans into permanent modifications.”

Housing Wire – “Moody’s Sees CMBS Delinquency Poised to Rise 9%-11% in 12 Months” (8-13-10)

“Moody’s Investors Service expects the share of commercial mortgage-backed securities loans that are delinquent or in special servicing to continue to rise over the next year. Analysts expect delinquencies to increase by 9% to 11% during the next 12 months with loans in special servicing climbing to about 20%, which would be up from the current 11.3% and 5% a year ago.”

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

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187-TNG Radio – Sean O’Toole 8-14-10

Friday, August 13th, 2010

Sean O'Toole from Foreclosure Radar

 

Sean O’Toole

Founder and CEO of ForeclosureRadar


 

 

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September 17th, 2010, The Norris Group returns with its award winning event I Survived Real Estate 2010. The Norris Group has assembled an incredible line up of industry experts to discuss the state of REO from the inside. Topics will include regulatory intervention and aftermath, bulk buying, myths and facts, and opportunities emerging for real estate professionals. 100 percent of the proceeds support the Orange County affiliate of Susan G. Komen for the Cure. This event would not be possible without generous help from the following platinum partners: Foreclosure Radar and Sean O’Toole, the San Diego Creative Real Estate InvestorsAssociation and Bill Tan, Investors Workshops and Shawn Watkins and Angel Bronsgeest, Invest Club for Women and Iris Veneracion and Bobby Alexander, San Jose Real Estate Investors Association and Geraldine Barry, Claudia Buys Houses, Frye Wiles, MVT Productions, and White House Catering.

This week Bruce is joined by Sean O’Toole. Sean is the Founder and CEO of ForeclosureRadar.com. ForeclosureRadar is the only company that tracks every foreclosure in California, Arizona, Nevada, Washington and Oregon. It makes updates daily on all foreclosure auctions. Prior to ForeclosureRadar, Sean spent 15 years building and launching software companies. In 2002, Sean entered the foreclosure business, and bought and sold over 150 properties.

Bruce thinks everyone who is a trustee sale buyer should be a member of ForeclosureRadar. When Sean started Foreclosure Radar, there were only about 40 trustee sale buyers who bought the majority of the deals within the state, but now there are thousands. The invention of the lower bid has created activity. We wish they would drop their opening bids even lower.

5 to 10 billion dollars worth in properties go to the courthouse steps every month. 80 percent of those properties go back to the bank as REOs. The number of REOs have decreased 50 percent from July 2008. However, there are still a huge number of properties being taken back by banks. From a historical perspective, we still have an outrageously high number of REOs.

People tend to have this mentality that nothing bad can happen from here on out, because they don’t think the lenders will unload a bunch of inventory into the market. However, in 2007 and 2008, that is exactly what they did. Up until the end of 2008, regulations required you to file a notice of default after 60 to 90 days of delinquency. In September of 2008, Paulson changed the rules, and since then, they have changed the rules to mark to market. Lenders now have this mentality that discourages them from foreclosing so long as there is some hope of receiving payment at some point in the future.

People are wondering when all the shadow inventory is going to show up and ruin everyone’s day. Shadow inventory has a few different holding tanks. The banks are holding it and not releasing it. In 2008, there was growing evidence that banks had inventory that were not being listed. In 2009, banks started selling more foreclosures than they were taking back. In the mean time, we had delinquencies that were over 90 days delinquent and were not going into foreclosure. Some properties are as much as 180 days delinquent. We have 1 million homeowners in California that are not making payment, but only 200,000 in foreclosure, and only 15,000 to 20,000 being foreclosed on per month.

There is a report claiming that “once a person is behind, the odds of them making that payment current again without a loan modification is 1%”. Sean thinks that may be true historically, but right now, the situation is worse than that. In the past, people went delinquent because of job problems, but this time, they are going late because we had a massive credit bubble that doubled home prices fictitiously. We have now corrected those prices, but we have 4 trillion dollars in excess mortgage debt. People are realizing that they are never going to get that money back, and paying the interest doesn’t help them.

ForeclosureRadar noticed an increase in investor activity in 2009. Subscriptions increased slightly around that time. Right now, people are concerned that the economy and housing might double-dip. Bruce thinks that a double-dip will probably occur.

A lot of ForeclosureRadar’s growth has come from builders and commercial real estate brokers. The court house steps have become much more competitive because of these two groups. They can’t just stop working because their niche isn’t doing well.

From 2002 to 2006, good investors could get a 50 to 75 percent return on capital. In 2007, the market went away because the banks weren’t dropping the bids. In 2008 and 2009, Sean heard plenty of stories about investors getting an 80 percent return on capital. It got really good for a little while, but over the past six months, the market got a lot more competitive. There are plenty of risks with buying at auctions. Bruce believes that someone makes a mistake every day at the courthouse that alters their financial life for a while.

The government has decided that it is better to avoid taking a property back to the lender. ForeclosureRadar is tracking the lenders who are willing to work problems out. Investor short sales concern Sean, especially if the deal is being bought to be flipped. Some people are claiming you can make a lot of money by doing a short sale through a double escrow. Sean thinks people who do that are going to get themselves into trouble. Bruce interviewed the FBI on this subject, and the FBI described the people who do double escrows as perpetrators. There are short sale opportunities out there, but there is a lot of risk involved. It can be difficult to convince lenders that you have added a significant amount of value to a recent short sale.

Lenders understand that auctioned properties are being sold at a discount. On a short sale, lenders believe that a market sale is being made, and they will not like the idea of selling a short sale at $100,000 below market.

Deutsche Bank recently made a report on mortgage servicers and how long it takes to do a short sale. With prime mortgages, GMAC took six months on average, CitiGroup took 7.5 months, Wells Fargo took 8 months, and Countrywide took 13 months. There is a buyer attached to the end of these deals, and no one is going to wait 13 months.

People involved with HAFA brag about their ability to sell within six months, and Bruce thinks that is ridiculous. The problem is that people are not coming to terms with the losses they are going to take. The government also has a few policies that are affecting speed. If Bruce was attached to that business, he would be very frustrated.

Mortgage insurance companies know they will have a better income and have less of a loss with a short sale, but if they have that loss right now, then they’ve got a payout to make. If they do not approve a short sale, and force a property into foreclosure, they may not have to payout for 8 or 9 months.

Sean believes that companies are moving away from principal reductions. Freddie claimed that they are not going to do principal reductions, because they have been tasked with protecting tax payer funds and they cannot just give out principal. If GSEs, who hold a lot of the mortgage debt, start giving out principal reductions, then that comes directly at the cost of the taxpayers. Freddie has a deed-in-lieu lease back program with a lease option. If someone does a deed-in-lieu under this program, they have a two year waiting period before they get to buy a property, and Bruce has the feeling that the property they will buy is that same property they were previously in. That would cause less volatility in the market, because it would discourage buyers from moving around.

Sean recently did some research for American Banker Magazine on jumbo loans. Loans under $417,000 are the fastest to be foreclosed on. Mini jumbos, which range from $417,000 to $729,000, take 30 days longer to foreclose on, and it takes even longer to foreclose on big jumbos. If lenders are struggling to deal with reality anywhere, it is at the high end of the market. Lenders sometimes try to aggressively foreclose with the hope of scaring the borrower into paying, but when they don’t get scared, the borrowers will simply vacate and move, and then the foreclosure gets cancelled. When lenders do not foreclose because they do not want the house, they are usually cancelling foreclosure by the masses. These lenders are often working to get people into the HAFA program, so that they can get a short sale or deed-in-lieu. Sean thinks the HAFA program is just like HAMP last year. It is not meant to conclude a bunch of short sales, it is meant to put people through another six months of delay only to tell them that they do not qualify.

Sean O’Toole’s website is www.foreclosureradar.com

Sean will be on the I Survived Real Estate 2010 panel in September.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

Thank you for being a Gold Sponsor for I Survived Real Estate 2010: Delmae Properties, Elite Auctions, Entrust California, Inland Empire Investors Forum, Keystone CPA, Las Brisas Escrow, Leivas Financial Services, Mike Cantu, North San Diego Real Estate Investors Association, Northern California Real Estate Investors Association, Personal Real Estate Investor Magazine, Realty 411 Magazine, San Jose Real Estate Investor Association, Tony Alvarez, and Westin South Coast Plaza.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 8/12/10

Thursday, August 12th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

Freddie Mac’s claims the average rate for 30-year fixed loans this week fell to 4.44 percent. RealtyTrac reports that national foreclosures increased 3.6% from last month. Initial unemployment insurance claims increased this week by 2,000 to 484,000, according to the Department of Labor. Foreclosure Radar announced notices of default filings in California slipped 4.8% from June, and notices of trustee sale fell 18.9%.

In The News:

NAHB - “Active Adult Home Builder Activity, Confidence Drop” (8-12-10)

“Builder confidence in the mature-housing market retreated during this year’s second quarter, according to data from the National Association of Home Builders’ 55+ Housing Market Index (55+ HMI) – a quarterly survey of the association’s builder members engaged in the production of mature-market housing. This past quarter’s index values dropped for all areas surveyed, compared to the previous year’s second quarter.”

Associated Press – “Mortgage rates hit low of 4.44 pct.” (8-12-10)

“Mortgage buyer Freddie Mac says the average rate for 30-year fixed loans this week was 4.44 percent, down from 4.49 percent last week. That’s the lowest since Freddie Mac began tracking rates in 1971.”

Inman - “FHA premium changes pushed to Oct. 4″ (8-12-10)

“FHA Commissioner David Stevens announced last week that upfront premiums for FHA mortgage insurance would be rolled back from 2.25 percent to 1 percent on Sept. 7, while annual premiums would nearly double. FHA had raised upfront premiums from 1.75 percent to 2.25 percent in April, to cope with rising losses on FHA-guaranteed loans. The Obama administration promised to reduce upfront premiums if Congress gave it the authority to raise annual premiums beyond their statutory limit of 0.55 percent.”

CNN - “Foreclosures rise in July” (8-12-10)

“The latest foreclosure numbers carried a mixed message: They’re up 3.6% from the month before but down 9.7% from 12 months earlier. In July there were more than 325,000 foreclosure filings — including notices of default, auctions notices and bank repossessions. That is the 17th month in a row total filings exceeded 300,000, said RealtyTrac’s CEO, James Saccacio.”

Sacramento Bee – “42,000 of California’s jobless will get help with mortgages” (8-12-10)

“More than 42,000 laid-off California homeowners are about to get a break. Starting Nov. 1, the government will help them make mortgage payments while they look for another job. Wednesday, the U.S. Treasury Department added $476.2 million to a $64 million state program that will pay jobless homeowners up to $1,500 a month.”

Housing Wire – “Weekly Jobless Claims Swell to 484,000″ (8-12-10)

“The number of initial unemployment insurance claims grew by 2,000 to 484,000 in the week ending August 7, swelling more than expected after last week’s initial figure was revised upward. The four-week moving average rose to 473,500, from the previous week’s revised average of 459,250, according to new data today from the US Department of Labor (DOL).”

Housing Wire - “California Foreclosure Activity Remains Mixed in July” (8-12-10)

“California mortgage defaults and foreclosure activity remained mixed in July, according to ForeclosureRadar, which tracks filings across the state. Foreclosure filings and cancellations dropped in July after rising in June while foreclosure sales rose after dropping last month. Notices of default filings slipped 4.8% from June and 47% from the same month last year. Notices of trustee sale fell 18.9% from June and 30.5% from July 2009″

Housing Wire – “Freddie Mac Economist Finds Growing Investor Preference for Hard Cash” (8-12-10)

“In Freddie Mac’s report, ‘Where Have All the Originations Gone?’ released Wednesday, the government sponsored entity (GSE) said that 25% of 2010 existing home sales are all-cash transactions. This proves to be a growing trend in home buying as the percentage of cash transactions was between 5% and 10% just a few years ago.”

Wall Street Journal - “Foreclosed On—By the U.S.” (8-12-10)

“The Federal Reserve Bank of New York is facing the prospect of foreclosing on a number of properties in the coming months, from homes to commercial buildings, a result of a souring mortgage portfolio it took over when it helped bail out Bear Stearns in 2008.”

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

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