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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 11/12/10

Monday, November 15th, 2010

Resources:
Home Values Near Unprecedented Decline as Hints of Stabilization Wane in Third Quarter
FDIC prepares to crack down on officials of failed banks
FDIC OKs plan to overhaul insurance fund payments
Obama commission considers limits to mortgage interest tax deductions

Today’s News Synopsis:

Freddie Mac reports 30-year loan rates decreased to 2.24%. Freddie Mac economists said bank foreclosure programs could cause housing to drop to a new low. President Obama intends to select Joseph Smith as the new director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency. D.R. Horton expects 2011 to be a weak year for the home-building industry.

USA Today“Stable home prices, low mortgage rates could gas economy” (11-12-10)

“Rates on 30-year fixed loans averaged 4.17%, down from 4.24% a week ago, Freddie Mac reported Thursday. They’ve been below 5% since early May.”

Housing Wire“California Realtors say cutting mortgage interest tax deduction will devastate nation” (11-12-10)

“Home prices in the affluent California county increased roughly 6% to $699,174 in October, according to the association. It’s up 11% from a year ago. The National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform, proposed two options in their efforts to overhaul the tax system. One was to reduce how much homeowners could deduct by 20%, and the other was to exclude second residences, home equity loans or mortgages over $500,000.”

Housing Wire“Excessive risk retention may throttle mortgage finance: ASF” (11-12-10)

“Under the sweeping reforms of Dodd-Frank, federal financial regulators are tasked with defining a qualified residential mortgage to determine which loans will be exempt from new risk-retention requirements. The American Securitization Forum wants the regulators to establish new standards for income and asset verification, minimum borrower equity, and debt-to-income ratios that its members believe significantly strengthen the mortgage pools and ‘ensures appropriate credit can resume flowing to American homebuyers.’”

Housing Wire“Freddie Mac says foreclosure problems may drain recovery” (11-12-10)

“Freddie Mac economists said recent problems in the banks’ foreclosure processes could slow what little momentum the recovery holds, and perhaps send the housing market down to a new low.”

Housing Wire“KBW says market ‘overly pessimistic’ on Fannie, Freddie losses” (11-12-10)

“Analysts at investment bank Keefe, Bruyette & Woods said both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have enough in reserves to absorb losses from legacy portfolios and that market estimates of potential losses are ‘overly pessimistic.’”

Housing Wire“Obama to nominate Joseph Smith as director of FHFA” (11-12-10)

“President Obama will nominate Joseph Smith as the new director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, according to the White House.”

Housing Wire“Barclays Capital expects Fed to buy Treasurys beyond 2Q” (11-12-10)

“Barclays Capital expects the Federal Reserve will continue buying Treasury securities past the second quarter, although it appears investors feel otherwise as there has been considerable sell-off in long-term bonds this week.”

Bloomberg“D.R. Horton Sees `Challenging’ Year as Home Sales May Decline” (11-12-10)

“D.R. Horton Inc., the second-largest U.S. homebuilder by revenue, expects 2011 to be ‘challenging’ for the industry as consumer confidence and employment remain weak, Chief Executive Officer Donald Tomnitz said.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, foreclosure filings were found in approximately one out of every 385 U.S. homes. The MBA reported that mortgage loan application volume increased by 3.2 percent in one week. The jumbo loan limit that was set to expire at the end of 2009 was extended through 2010.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor event calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 200 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 11/1/10

Monday, November 1st, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

Credit Suisse estimates Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will have cumulative losses of $321 billion. Private mortgage servicers modified 119,585 loans in September, over 4 times as many modifications performed through HAMP. Statistics from the Federal Reserve show home equity accounted for 16.2% of net worth in the 2nd quarter.

In The News:

RecordNet.com - “Economic forecast heads south” (10-31-10)

“He previously forecast California’s unemployment rate would drop to 11 percent in 2011 and to less than 10 percent the year after. The October report now has state jobless rates remaining above 10 percent well into 2013. San Joaquin County will remain in the doldrums a while longer, with annual jobless rates hovering above 17 percent for the next two years before easing to 16.4 percent in 2013, according to the Pacific forecast.”

Market Watch“White-collar recession, blue-collar depression” (10-30-10)

“the disparity between white-collar and blue-collar unemployment is stunning: 4.5% among college graduates versus 10.8% for those with a high-school diploma, and 14.3% for those without one.”

Daily Finance“The Foreclosure Mess: It’s Even Worse in ‘Nonjudicial’ States” (10-30-10)

“In 23 states, before a lender can foreclose on a homeowner for defaulting on a mortgage, it must take the homeowner to court. As we’ve seen, even with judicial review that process has still been shot through with problems. But for a troubled homeowner in California, Texas and 25 other ‘nonjudicial’ states, the robo-signing scandal and foreclosure mess are even more dangerous because the lender doesn’t have to go to court to foreclose. Fraudulent paperwork can be used with impunity unless the homeowner is in bankruptcy, which is a judicial process, or unless the homeowner is represented in the foreclosure by an attorney who knows what to look for.”

Housing Wire“SEC reminds banks to disclose impacts of mortgage repurchases, foreclosure reviews” (11-1-10)

“Major banks are struggling to get an accurate estimate on how much agency and private-label mortgage-backed securities losses they will be responsible for repaying to the purchasers of those securities, such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.”

Housing Wire“Credit Suisse projects $321 billion more losses for Fannie, Freddie” (11-1-10)

“Credit Suisse analysts estimate $321 billion in cumulative losses at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, based on a further 10% decline in home prices over the next year. Under that scenario, prices would flatten over in following year and experience a 3% annual appreciation going forward.”

Housing Wire“TransUnion: delinquent mortgage roll rates highest in month after recession” (11-1-10)

“The number of delinquent mortgages that moved to a more serious status peaked the month after the recession officially ended, according to a study by TransUnion. The credit information company said the level of consumers who rolled their delinquency status to 60 days from 30 and to 90 days from 60 reached its highest point in July 2009. Nearly a quarter of those who were 30-days late on their mortgage payments in June 2009 became 60 days past due in July 2009, according to TransUnion”

Housing Wire“Private mortgage modifications outnumber HAMP 4 to 1 in September” (11-1-10)

“Mortgage servicers modified 119,585 loans through private programs in September, more than four times the 27,840 done through the Treasury’s Home Affordable Modification Program, according to the Hope Now alliance.”

Housing Wire“Monday Morning Cup of Coffee” (11-1-10)

“Fannie Mae directed servicers to work closely with Housing Finance Agencies across the country now that the HFAs received a total $7.6 billion in Hardest Hit Funds from the Treasury Department. The money will be used to provide temporary relief to unemployed mortgage borrowers through the HHF Unemployment Programs and delinquent borrowers through the HHF Reinstatement Programs.”

Bloomberg - “Housing Matters Little to U.S. Consumers’ Wealth: Chart of the Day” (11-1-10)

“home equity accounted for 16.2 percent of net worth at the end of the second quarter, the Fed’s data showed.”

Bloomberg - “JPMorgan Trims Biggest Mortgage Putback Estimate to $90 Billion” (11-1-10)

“JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts lowered their estimate for the cost to sellers of repurchasing soured U.S. mortgages to as much as $90 billion from a range that went as high as $120 billion.”

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor event calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

198-TNG Radio – John Schaub 10-30-10

Friday, October 29th, 2010

John  Schaub

John Schaub

Real Estate Investor, Teacher and Author


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This week Bruce Norris is joined by John Schaub. John has prospered during 3 recessions as an investor. He has 35 years of real estate investing experience. His 2005 best selling book Building Wealth One House At a Time assisted more than 50,000 real estate investors. His 2007 book titled Building Wealth in a Changing Real Estate Market is available in bookstores and online.

In the early 1980s, we had a crash in real estate. We had high unemployment, high interest rates and a low volume of sales. Every down turn is different, and that is what makes real estate challenging. Charles Darwin once said, “It is not the strongest or the most intelligent of the species who survive, it is the ones most adaptable to change.” You have to be able to analyze a market, and adapt your strategy. Having 35 years is experience is important for being able to determine when change is occurring, and how to deal with that change.

Many of the people who have not survived the down turn have a lot of bank debt. Many of the people who did survive own a property free and clear, have cash in the bank, and didn’t refinance as often.

If you talk to an account and tell him/her that you own houses free and clear, they look at you as if you are making a big mistake. They don’t understand that owning a house free and clear helps you sleep at night. There are some days where it is hard to get work to pay the bills.

There was a time in Riverside County when real estate prices were dropping 4 percent per month. During that time, Bruce was happy to be able to sit patiently on the sidelines until opportunity presented itself. The market does not come out of a recession as fast as people expect, so if sales are going slow, be patient.

Right now is a great time to buy. The affordability index is looking great. If the credit market loosens up, we will have many buyers returning to the market. Unfortunately, the real estate market has some scars from the down turn, and those scars take time to heal. In times like these, when people are afraid to enter the market because of the cash they lost in the down turn, you can make a lot of money from conquering your fear.

Every one is trying to catch the bottom of the market, but that is just as difficult as catching the top. You should be happy with just being able to buy a property that cashflows well. There is a good chance that prices will go up in the next ten years. John was able to raise rent on all his properties this year without losing any renters.

John got into investing because he didn’t want a real job. Prior to investing, he had worked in retail and he had worked as a dishwasher in a restaurant. He knew there were jobs that required hard work and less money, but he wanted something that required less work and was more lucrative. He got his real estate license in college, and he sold an apartment building that he was managing. He used the check from that sale to start his investing career.

John prefers to buy and hold over buy and sell. Buying and holding a property does not require as much skill as buying and selling, because selling is a separate skill set. Also, you cannot be greedy with buying and selling; you have to be willing to accept a smaller profit from each property. Buying and holding requires patience. You have to wait for property values to increase over longer periods of time, and you need to have some sort of job to cover the bills while you are waiting. The properties that have made John the most money are the properties that he bought 30 to 40 years ago.

About ¾ of John’s properties are bought from private owners. John uses a variety of advertising methods. He doesn’t believe you can adequately rely on one method. John keeps track of properties for sale in neighborhoods where he owns properties. He lives in a city with a population of about 50,000, and he has about 12 neighborhoods within 10 minutes of his office. On a daily basis, John looks for empty houses and signs of distress within those neighborhoods. He also talks to neighbors about other people who might be interested in selling. John has not used direct mail or newspaper advertising for many years, but he did do this in the beginning of his career to create leads.

John’s ideal rental property is located within a well established neighborhood, has nice landscaping and is near to good schools. These neighborhoods tend to be more pricy. In order to buy that kind of property, you have to buy far below market value, or you must have a large down payment to decrease your monthly payments. John will not buy a house unless he can gain a positive cash flow from it. John’s ideal home typically sells for $300,000 to $400,000, and he tries to buy them for about $200,000. Those homes usually rent for about $1,550 per month.

If John was a beginning investor, he would look for a less expensive house. It is harder to make an expensive house cash flow, and they require larger down payments. Cheaper homes are sometimes not very pretty, but every house is someone’s dream house. For someone who lives under a bridge or inside a trailer, an ugly house may seem wonderful. There is money to be made even on less desirable properties. Generally, the people selling those homes are anxious to get rid of them, and the people who are interested in buying those homes are really happy to just have a house. John has sold hundreds of houses like this to young families who were willing to put in some sweat equity. John has been involved with Habitat for Humanity for years. Habitat for Humanity helps people get into a house with a small down payment. Because those people have to work their way into those homes, they value their homes more and they are more likely to be successful.

John was mentored by Warren Harding. He was a real estate salesman and a great teacher. When John first started taking classes, he couldn’t imagine that he would get his money’s worth out of the classes he was taking. He eventually realized that the $200 dollars he spent on his education gave him ideas that were worth millions. John still enjoys taking and teaching classes. The excitement of being able to learn new ideas to make money with keeps John motivated.

One of the benefits of being a teacher is that you have a bank of students that come up with their own investing ideas. Some of John’s students have come up with ideas that they have been able to use profitably.

John and his friend Jack Miller began teaching real estate in the 1970s. He was teaching a real estate law class at a local college for people interested in getting their real estate license. Later, he started teaching classes on investing in classes. He currently teaches about 4 times every year. He enjoys seeing people “light up” when he shows them how to make money. John teaches to a repetitive group. He teaches with Peter Fortunato and Jim Napier.

The first time Bruce taught, a man approached him saying, “I really need to figure this out, because my wife has cancer and I can’t afford the treatment.” Education can make a big difference in someone’s life.

When John’s father was in his 60s, he got his retirement benefit statement, and discovered that it wasn’t enough to retire. John was able to help him buy 4 houses. They sold one, and his father kept the other 3. That significantly improved his retirement income. John believes he teaches life changing material. If you follow good advice and find good teachers, you can not only help yourself but other people as well.

The title of John’s course is Making it Big on Little Deals. There are many seminars that try to teach people how to retire on one big deal. Those seminars are very popular, but they are impractical. The slow route has a much higher rate of success. Big deals have big risk. When you buy a highly valuable piece of property, there is a good chance that you will be negotiating with someone smarter than you. You have a major negotiating advantage when you are buying from homeowners, and when you are selling to people who want your house. If you are selling and buying from wealthy people, you need to be very good.

You can buy a house with a relatively small amount of money, but if you buy a bigger property like an apartment, then you had better have a reserve of cash, because something will probably go wrong along the way. If a house is empty for a couple months, you can probably survive. If an apartment is empty for a couple months, there is a good chance you won’t survive. One of the lessons Bruce has learned is to always have a reserve of cash. Having monthly cash flow and a reserve of money allows him to make sane investing decisions. When you have extra cash, you can analyze the market and determine whether or not it is a good time to buy or sell. Also, having extra money puts you into a good negotiating position, because you don’t have to buy or sell. You can just make deals that are good for you, rather than being forced into a deal because you need some quick cash.

Bruce knows some people that lost a lot during the down turn. Some of those people are in make up mode during a time that is difficult to make money. That is dangerous. John believes you need to have a good long term plan. If you buy today and don’t plan to sell for 10 years, then you don’t care about price drops that might occur within the next couple years. This allows you to patiently wait until prices come back to a desirable selling point.

Bruce and John will be teaching together for the first time on November 5th and 6th. Jon will be focusing on how to buy in today’s market. One thing that John does differently from Bruce is he uses a lot of owner financing. He will be teaching people how to buy properties without going to banks and hard money lenders. You cannot cash flow with a hard money loan, because you need a better interest rate, but hard money loans are good for buying and selling. With interest rates this low, owner financing is vey reasonable. John is getting loans for 15 years at 4%.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 10/13/10

Wednesday, October 13th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

Mortgage application volume increased 14.6% this week. All 50 state attorney generals are now involved in an investigation into lenders that filed faulty foreclosure affidavits. The FHFA is urging GSEs to accelerate the foreclosure process once the AG reviews are over. Foreign investors are planning to purchase large amounts of commercial property.

In The News:

Mortgage Bankers Association“Mortgage Refinance Applications Jump as Rates Continue to Fall in Latest MBA Weekly Survey” (10-13-10)

“The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 8, 2010. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 14.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 14.8 percent compared with the previous week.”

NAR - “NAR Says Families Will Suffer if Foreclosure Freeze Continues” (10-13-10)

“Thousands of first-time and move-up buyers who hoped to make a foreclosed property their new home now face uncertainty, anxiety and possibly remorse as they worry that closing on their desired property could be in jeopardy. For many, the dream of homeownership could turn into agony if their home purchase is indefinitely delayed by a moratorium on foreclosures declared by some banks, the National Association of Realtors® said today.”

Los Angeles Times“California to join multistate inquiry of foreclosures by banks” (10-13-10)

“California will join a multistate investigation into whether banks violated laws by cutting corners while foreclosing on homes as the Obama administration made clear Tuesday that it would not support a nationwide moratorium.”

Housing Wire“Jaime Dimon: ‘Almost no chance we made a mistake’ with foreclosures” (10-13-10)

“JPMorgan Chase said new processes are being put in place to ensure it fulfills all procedural requirements going forward. ‘There’s almost no chance we made a mistake,’ Jaime Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, said during the conference call.”

Housing Wire“It’s official: All 50 state AGs to review foreclosures” (10-13-10)

“Alabama Attorney General Troy King announced Wednesday he is joining the other 49 AG offices in a nationwide investigation into lenders that filed faulty foreclosure affidavits.”

Housing Wire“St. Louis Fed economist questions wisdom of more quantitative easing” (10-13-10)

“An economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis wonders if additional large-scale securities purchases by the Fed will produce the desired effects of driving down interest rates, boosting employment, and preventing deflation.”

Housing Wire“FHFA urges GSE servicers to accelerate foreclosure process after reviews” (10-13-10)

“On Oct. 1, DeMarco said Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are working with their third-party servicers to identify any loans that may be have been foreclosed improperly. On Wednesday, FHFA urged servicers to proceed on foreclosures as quickly as possible after all foreclosure alternatives have been exhausted.”

Bloomberg - “Investors Target U.S. Commercial Properties After Drop in Values, DTZ Says” (10-13-10)

“Commercial-property investors are preparing to spend more in the U.S. next year after more than two years of declining values, DTZ Group Plc said. Funds and investment companies increased the capital available for deals in the Americas by 54 percent since December to $97 billion, the London-based real-estate broker said in a report today. Most of this will be used for U.S. transactions.”

Bloomberg - “Banks to Shift From `Extend and Pretend’ in Real Estate Loans, Survey Says” (10-13-10)

“Lenders will shift toward amending commercial mortgages next year instead of extending maturities, leading to increased sales of distressed real estate, according to a survey of almost 900 property professionals. More than 63 percent of those surveyed said they expect maturing loans to be modified, while 7.1 percent said loans will continue without changes to defer losses, a practice known as ‘extend and pretend.’ About 16 percent of respondents said real estate with maturing loans will be foreclosed on and put on the market, and almost 14 percent said properties will be sold by borrowers, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP said in a report today.”\

Looking Back:

One year ago, Fitch reported that 60 percent of borrowers from 06 to 07 had negative equity and owed more than their homes are worth. Interthinx’s Mortgage Fraud Index estimated that fraud decreased by 4 percent from Q1 to Q2 of 2009, but increased by 7 percent from Q2 of 2008. Statistics from MDA DataQuick showed that Southern California home sales increased by 5 percent from October of 2008.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor event calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

195-TNG Radio – I Survived Real Estate 2010 10-09-10

Friday, October 8th, 2010

I Survived Real Estate 2010

I Survived Real Estate 2010


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September 17th, 2010, The Norris Group returns with its award winning event I Survived Real Estate 2010. The video also now available on The Norris Group website.

The Norris Group has assembled an incredible line up of industry experts to discuss the state of REO from the inside. Topics will include regulatory intervention and aftermath, bulk buying, myths and facts, and opportunities emerging for real estate professionals. 100 percent of the proceeds support the Orange County affiliate of Susan G. Komen for the Cure. This event would not be possible without generous help from the following platinum partners: Foreclosure Radar and Sean O’Toole, the San Diego Creative Real Estate Investors Association and Bill Tan, Investors Workshops and Shawn Watkins and Angel Bronsgeest, Invest Club for Women and Iris Veneracion and Bobby Alexander, Claudia Buys Houses, The Business Press, Frye Wiles, MVT Productions, and White House Catering.

This week The Norris Group Real Estate Radio Show is broadcasting I Survived Real Estate 2010.

We are in a bond bubble. This is what concerns Thornberg the most right now. We had a recent GDP revision. Savings rates are close to where they should be. Employment is flat, but incomes are growing. The panic over a double dip this summer was ridiculous. We are on a path to recovery, but we have created so much fear that we now have a bond bubble. We have ridiculously low rates. The spreads between returns on equities and returns on bonds have never been this wide. Either equities are severely underpriced or bonds are severely overpriced. Thornberg believes the bonds are overpriced, and eventually people will figure that out. If rates shoot up quickly, then we will have a big problem.

Real estate affordability is incredible right now. If interest rates went up to normal levels then affordability would go back to normal levels as well. Interest rates could spike from inflation, fears over the federal deficit, or if a sovereign debt crisis in Europe causes risk rates to increase. The problem is that we are relying too much on low interest rates right now.

Joseph Magdziarz spoke next. Despite the problems Joseph’s industry has had with appraisal companies, his industry has experienced growth. Appraisers had some success with getting legislation passed, such as bill 4173. When October 18th passes, AMCs will have to pay appraisers reasonable fees. Traditionally, when the AMCs have been used, they took all the money from the appraisers. Not all AMCs are bad, but some of them took advantage of people. AMCs were a risk to consumers, because consumers weren’t receiving the best appraisers.

When Joseph is asked to appear before congress, they usually have specific issues they want addressed. These issues are usually related to consumers.

Sean O’Toole was asked to give his perspective on whether or not we’ve done a good job of solving the real estate problem. The Fed has kept a balance sheet on the U.S. and it’s households. We went from $4.5 trillion of mortgage debt in the year 2,000 to $10.5 trillion at the peak. If you look at the number of new homes added, and the increases in income, we should not have gone about $6.5 trillion. That means there is $4 trillion in excess mortgage debt. Sean believes that in the best case, we have only dealt with $0.5 trillion of that excess debt. We have a long way to go before real estate is healthy again.

Sean wrote an article called Foreclosure Roulette: A Game of Extend and Pretend. Sean does not believe that the current levels of REO inventory accurately reflect the delinquency levels. We had foreclosures moving equally with delinquencies until 2008. That was when Paulson said that we shouldn’t force banks to sell these assets in distressed markets.

Currently, our REO statistics do not mean a lot. We have been bouncing around in a range that has nothing to do with delinquencies. The FDIC has loosened up on forcing lenders to get bad assets off their books. Since we changed these rules, foreclosures have stalled.

The treasury has admitted that their strategy for dealing with foreclosures was to not allow them to come out at once. They wanted to slow the process down. A new program is coming out in Fall, which will incentivize banks to write down principals on mortgages. That may have some success. Thornberg believes there will be 3 to 4 million foreclosures coming out. Sean O’Toole believes there will be more than 4 million.

Sean believes these new programs are causing problems. These programs are meant to continue the “extend and pretend” strategy. The government is telling us “hold on, we have HAMP to solve the problem”. HAMP had design flaws from the beginning, and Sean does not believe it was intended to be successful. The government then came out and said, “Hold on, we have HAFA”. HAFA also had design flaws. It was not intended to be successful. Sean will not be fooled by HAMP’s new principal balance reduction. Fannie Mae claimed it would damage people that strategically default.

The average foreclosure in California is $150,000 dollars upside down on a $250,000 house by the time it reaches the courthouse steps. The banks and the government do not want people making the right decision for themselves by walking away. This is why Fannie Mae recently encouraged banks to push through foreclosures. The banks are not actually going to push through foreclosures, but they want people to think they will, so that they won’t strategically default.

Tommy Williams does not understand how we can give principal reductions to people who were irresponsible, but give nothing to the people who were responsible. This will not work in a capitalistic society. Tommy believes that Bruce’s idea was fantastic. Right now, the average American can afford a $150,000 home. However, people are trying to sell their home for over $300,000. All the mortgages in the United States that were selling for over $300,000 equate for 5% of the market. Right now, they are still selling homes for above affordable rates, and they are building homes that are still too big.

After 1992, we built 75% of what we needed for our population growth. The biggest problem is that we’ve been building big homes in the Inland Empire, but what we really need is lower rent apartments closer to urban areas. We are going to need more housing in 2011 and 2012, but not bigger homes. If builders still to smaller town houses, then they could make a living. However, if they do that, the builders will have to deal with zoning boards, local governments who are cashed strapped who want you to fix their streets, sewers, power lines and their pensions.

In 2008, there was very little capital available for commercial properties and there was little liquidity. In 2009, some of those capital sources started coming back. We have more capital available to us today, than we have had over the last 2 years. The problem is that many properties do not qualify for financing. Some properties have leasing issues, and no one will finance those. Most of those nonperforming properties are still in the hands of the owners. The banks will not foreclose on those properties, because they do not have the ability to write those properties down. We are starting to see the banks make progress now, because the Fed is giving the banks 0% interest rates on loans. The 0% interest allows the banks to make a small profit, which allows them to then foreclose on those properties. Dealing with this extended process is going to take even longer, because no one is putting a gun to the banks’ heads.

In the 90s, the rules were different. The FDIC forced lenders to give a notice of default if someone is 100 days delinquent.

In 2012, many commercial maturities will come due. A lot of that debt is from commercial mortgage backed securities. That debt is being held by bond holders. That debt will not be refinanced. A lot of non-refinancable loans are being pushed out for 2 years. CMBS is coming back, but values are not coming back. In 2006 -2007, we made 80% loans on an inflated value. Those properties may be 60 to 70% of what it was in 2007, but it still has a loan worth 110% to value. Just because we have money available to refinance doesn’t mean we can, because we don’t have the values we need.

Thornberg believes that if the people who own this debt just “close their eyes and hold their nose” until 2014, then they will be ok. Daniel says that is just the game that these debt holders are hoping on, but it may not work.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 10/6/10

Wednesday, October 6th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

The National League of Cities expects city property-tax revenues to decrease 1.8% in 2010. The IMF still believes a double-dip in real estate is possible. A new program from HUD allows delinquent borrowers, who are unemployed or suffering from a severe medical condition, to receive up to $50,000 at a 0% interest rate. The monthly ADP National Employment Report shows the private sector lost 39,000 jobs in September.

In The News:

Wall Street Journal - “Lower Property Values Hit City Revenues” (10-6-10)

“Cities are starting to see lower property values translate into weaker property-tax collections, according to a report from the National League of Cities. In 2010, city property-tax revenues are projected to decrease 1.8% in fiscal year 2010, the first decline since the recession began, according to the report. That is expected to get much worse.”

Mortgage Bankers Association“Sharp Jump in Purchase Activity Led by Applications for FHA Loans in Latest MBA Weekly Survey” (10-6-10)

“The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 1, 2010.  The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.  On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 0.3 percent compared with the previous week.”

Housing Wire“California Democrats ask federal regulators to investigate foreclosures” (10-6-10)

“thousands of unwarranted foreclosures only amplify our concerns that systemic problems exist in the ways many financial institutions have dealt with homeowners who are seeking to avoid foreclosures.”

Housing Wire - “IMF sees dismal real estate sector providing little help to economic recovery” (10-6-10)

“In the U.S., the IMF said a double-dip decline in the real estate sector is possible and would expose pockets of vulnerability in the banking system. There are multiple issues within the space that remain ‘threats to the fragile stabilization’ of the economy, according to the IMF analysts.”

Housing Wire“New HUD program offers up to 24 months of mortgage assistance to unemployed” (10-6-10)

“A new program run by the Department of Housing and Urban Development allows delinquent borrowers who are unemployed or suffering from a severe medical condition to receive assistance with mortgage payments for up to 24 months. The Emergency Homeowners Loan Program offers up to $50,000 to eligible borrowers at a 0% interest rate.”

Housing Wire“Private sector lost 39,000 jobs in September: ADP” (10-6-10)

“The private sector shed 39,000 jobs in September negating gains of the past seven months and confirming ‘a pause in the economic recovery already evident in other data,’ according to the monthly ADP National Employment Report.”

Housing Wire“HUD bans JPMorgan Chase branch from originating FHA mortgages” (10-6-10)

“HUD terminates approvals if enough FHA-insured loans originated at one branch no longer perform. If a branch’s FHA defaults exceed 200 within two years, the approval can be stripped. Lenders who lose origination approval can still purchase, hold, or service the loans. A terminated lender can apply for reinstatement after six months if it has maintained certain requirements.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, Reis Inc. reported that the U.S. apartment vacancy rate rose to 7.8 percent from the previous season. The US Treasury Department increased the cap of HAMP by $4.7 billion. Hayman Advisors LP bought mortgage bonds worth 50 percent of their assets. Altera Real Estate estimated the average home in Laguna Beach would take 11.03 months to sell.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor event calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 9/15/10

Wednesday, September 15th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

Mortgage applications decreased 8.9% this week, according to the MBA. Fannie Mae predicts 2010 sales will total 7.4% less than sales in 2009. UCLA economists predict the unemployment rate will remain above 10% until the end of 2012. GSEs have lost $226 billion since the end of 2007.

In The News:

Mortgage Bankers Association -Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey” (9-15-10)

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 10, 2010.  The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 8.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.  This week’s results include an adjustment to account for the Labor Day holiday. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 27.4 percent compared with the previous week.”

Reuters - Fannie Mae now sees US home sales drop, not rise” (9-15-10)

The company is predicting total U.S. sales of new and existing homes in 2010 will drop 7.4 percent from 2009, compared with expectations for a 0.8 percent rise in its forecast last month. It means sales would fall to about 5.12 million homes from 5.53 million units in 2009.”

The Press Enterprise“UCLA economists say growth will be hard to notice” (9-15-10)

“Now UCLA’s economists say it’s unlikely there will be enough job growth to drive the state’s unemployment level below 10 percent until the end of 2012.”

Housing Wire“Barr: GSEs won’t exist once reform takes root” (9-15-10)

“Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac won’t exist in their current state once financial reform takes root, according to a top Treasury Department official. Prior to conservatorship two year ago, the government-sponsored entities operated under a ‘heads I win, tails you lose’ system that is unacceptable, Michael Barr said Wednesday before a subcommittee of the House Committee on Financial Services.”

Housing Wire“FHFA estimates GSEs final cost to taxpayers could reach $400 billion” (9-15-10)

“Speaking before the House Financial Services Committee today, Edward DeMarco, acting director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency maintains that the government-sponsored enterprises could still cost the taxpayers $400 billion. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were taken into conservatorship by the FHFA in September 2008. Since the end of 2007, the GSEs have lost $226 billion with 73% of that stemming from the single-family credit guarantee business. The Treasury has recorded losses of $148 billion attributable to its bailout of Fannie and Freddie.”

Housing Wire“New project inquiries at residential architecture firms down 24% in 2Q: AIA” (9-15-10)

“Kermit Baker, the chief economist at AIA, said business conditions at architecture firms hit an all-time low in 2008 but had been making a steady recovery to the first quarter of 2010, when these companies reported the first increase in billings in nearly three years.”

Housing Wire - “Zillow 30-year mortgage rates go up, CEO steps down” (9-15-10)

“The 30-year, fixed-mortgage rate increased last week to 4.32% from a near-record low of 4.27% the week prior, according to the Zillow Mortgage Marketplace weekly update.”

Bloomberg - “U.S. Home Prices Face 3-Year Drop as Inventory Surge Looms” (9-15-10)

“Shadow inventory — the supply of homes in default or foreclosure that may be offered for sale — is preventing prices from bottoming after a 28 percent plunge from 2006, according to analysts from Moody’s Analytics Inc., Fannie Mae, Morgan Stanley and Barclays Plc. Those properties are in addition to houses that are vacant or that may soon be put on the market by owners.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, a survey from the National Association of Home Builders showed that buyers were unwilling to pay more for a new “green” home. DQNews reported that the total sales in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange Counties fell 10.8 percent from the previous month. Both Ben Bernanke and Bank of America believed the U.S. financial downturn was coming to an end. The Coopers Korpacz Real Estate Investor Survey estimated that U.S. commercial property would not recover until 2012.

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 9/10/10

Friday, September 10th, 2010

Sources:
http://www.mortgageorb.com/e107_plugins/content/content.php?content.6632
http://portal.hud.gov/portal/page/portal/HUD/press/press_releases_media_advisories/2010/HUDNo.10-189
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/09/09/irs-needs-strategy-to-recoup-home-buyer-tax-credit/
http://realtytimes.com/rtpages/20100907_political.htm
http://www.dsnews.com/articles/shadow-inventory-shrinks-for-fifth-consecutive-month-barclays-2010-09-03
http://www.dsnews.com/articles/real-estate-investment-firm-acquires-stake-in-760m-fdic-loan-portfolio-2010-09-07
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/retro-HOUSINGM08.html
http://realtytimes.com/rtpages/20100907_political.htm
http://jan.ocregister.com/2010/09/05/more-people-leave-california-than-arrive/44597/
http://www.siteselection.com/issues/2010/jul/North-American/
http://www.housingwire.com/2010/09/07/bank-deposit-balances-shrink-for-first-time-since-92

Today’s News Synopsis:

Real Capital Analytics reports distressed commercial properties rose $5.1 billion in July. President Barack Obama appointed Austan Goolsbee as leader of the Council of Economic Advisors. Mortgage servicers completed 65% more permanent modifications on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans through HAMP in the 2nd quarter. According to Harris Trifon, average losses on loans packaged into U.S. CMBS totaled $501 million last month.

In The News:

Housing Wire“Troubled commercial loans may be near the peak: Real Capital” (9-10-10)

“Distressed commercial properties increased $5.1 billion in July, the lowest addition since October 2008, according to the research firm Real Capital Analytics. The July additions were also less than half the monthly average for all of 2009 and through 2010 so far. The total amount of distressed commercial loans stands at $189.1 billion.”

Housing Wire“Obama names Goolsbee leader of Council of Economic Advisors” (9-10-10)

“President Barack Obama announced today the appointment of Austan Goolsbee as leader of the Council of Economic Advisors. He will be one of four principal members of the team who’s duties include finding ways to add more jobs to the economy and lower the unemployment rate.”

Housing Wire - “Securities industry takes a beating in 2Q” (9-10-10)

“Issuance of mortgage-related securities in the second quarter totaled $356.5 billion; down 8.4% from the first quarter and 45.7% from the year earlier. Issuance from the government sponsored entities Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac still dominate the space with Ginnie Mae.”

Housing Wire - “CMBS delinquencies pass 8% despite record loan mods” (9-10-10)

“Special servicers modified a record $2.1 billion in loans backing commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) in August, but delinquencies continue to grow, according to the credit-rating agency Fitch Ratings. The delinquency rate on CMBS loans reached 8.48%, a 23 basis point increase from July. There were $3.1 billion in new delinquencies, driven mostly by five loans recent defaults of loans worth more than $100 million.”

Housing Wire“HAMP modifications on Fannie, Freddie loans up 65% in 2Q” (9-10-10)

“Mortgage servicers completed 88,551 permanent modifications on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans through the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) in the second quarter, a 65% increase from the previous quarter, according to a report from the Federal Housing Finance Agency.”

Housing Wire - “Moody’s: banks to write off another $286 billion in loans through 2011″ (9-10-10)

“Moody’s Investors Service expects continued trouble in the domestic banking industry with another $286 billion of loan losses yet to hit the books. Earlier this week, analysts said U.S. banks rated by Moody’s have incurred $476 billion of charge offs since 2008.”

Housing Wire“ACUMA holds high expectations for credit union mortgage originations” (9-10-10)

“The American Credit Union Mortgage Association expects mortgage volumes for this year to rise above the $90 billion in originations its members completed in 2009.”

Bloomberg“Commercial Property Losses Mount as Loan Servicers Triage Real Estate Debt” (9-10-10)

“Average losses on loans packaged into U.S. commercial mortgage-backed securities totaled $501 million in August compared with $245 million in April, according to Harris Trifon, a Deutsche Bank analyst in New York who based the estimate on a three-month average. In August 2009, the number was $41 million.”

Inman - “‘Just let housing go’” (9-10-10)

“The Fed’s Beige Book said the obvious: ‘Continued growth … mid-July through the end of August, but with widespread signs of a deceleration.’ Not double-dip, not yet. In the absence of fearful dippers buying bonds, the 10-year T-note rose to a one-month high 2.8 percent, although doing no particular damage to mortgage rates, still near 4.5 percent. The new rage: ‘Just let housing go.’ These people do not seem to remember the benefits of letting Lehman go, the simple life without banks and their deposits.”

Today’s News Synopsis:

One year ago, the Federal Reserve announced the economy was stabilizing. U.S. homebuyers paid 3.3 percent less than listing price in July 2009. Bankruptcy filings increased 22% year over year. Foreclosure filings in the U.S. exceeded 300,000 for sixth straight months.

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 9/9/10

Thursday, September 9th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

Mortgage rates increased to 4.35 percent after weeks of record-breaking lows. Jobless claims fell 5.6% last wek, according to the Labor Department. Callahan & Associates reports credit unions originated $31.4 billion in mortgages during the first 2 quarters. Statistics from Real Capital Analytics show hotel purchases increased 136% during the first two quarters.

In The News:

Mercury News“Mortgage rates edge up this week from decades low” (9-9-10)

“Mortgage buyer Freddie Mac says the average rate for a 30-year fixed loan was 4.35 percent, up from 4.32 percent the week before. It was only the second rise in the past 12 weeks. Last week’s was the lowest number since Freddie Mac began tracking rates in 1971.”

Orange County Register - “Real estate licenses fall for 30th month” (9-9-10)

“California real estate licenses dropped to 479,518 as of July, down by nearly 70,000 from an all-time high of 549,244 in November 2007.”

Housing Wire“Weekly jobless claims fall 5.6% to 451,000″ (9-9-10)

“Initial jobless claims fell 5.6% for the week ended Sept. 4, coming in well below analysts’ estimates and marking the third-consecutive week of declines in the number of people filing for unemployment. The Labor Department said seasonally adjusted initial claims decreased by 27,000 to 451,000 from the previous week’s revised figure.”

Housing Wire“Credit union mortgage originations down 43% from last year” (9-9-10)

“Credit unions originated $31.4 billion in mortgages through the first half of 2010, down 43% from the $55.3 billion completed in the same time last year, according to data compiled for HousingWire from research firm Callahan & Associates.”

Housing Wire“Despite popular belief, research finds the US is not in double dip recession” (9-9-10)

“An expected decline in housing prices notwithstanding, academics are now arguing that the U.S. economy is not seeing another downturn, although that is the way it feels since recovery is so slow. During the latest recession, the U.S. shed 4.1% of gross domestic product from peak to trough. The unemployment rate more than doubled, rising to 10.% in October from 5% in December 2007, according to statistics from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.”

Bloomberg - “Hotels Lure Investors as Lodging Surpasses U.S. Offices, Retail” (9-9-10)

“Sales of hotels jumped 136 percent in the first half of 2010 from a year earlier, the biggest gain among five commercial real estate categories tracked by New York-based Real Capital Analytics Inc. Those deals were based on transactions of at least $5 million and exclude hotels attached to casinos.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, mortgage loan application volume increased 17% in one week. Mortgages with 30+ days of delinquency increased to 3.89% in the 2nd quarter. Fitch Ratings estimated that 70 percent of the option ARMs would reset by 2011. Bankruptcy declarations from wealthy families increased 73% from 2008 to 2009.

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 9/3/10

Friday, September 3rd, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

Fannie Mae will fine loan servicers who take too long to complete foreclosures after a borrower fails to qualify for a modification. The total value of all California properties fell 1.8% this year to $4.4 trillion. The Labor Department reports the federal employment got rid of 121,000 jobs in August.

In The News:

Housing Wire“Most GSE capital reductions due to single-family credit guarantee” (9-3-10)

“The first Conservator’s Report on the Enterprises’ Financial Condition from the Federal Housing Finance Agency showed the single-family credit guarantee programs accounted for 73% of the capital reduction. Although declines in housing prices and prolonged economic weakness have hurt credit performance of traditional mortgages, as well, the FHFA said.”

Inman - “Fannie cracks the foreclosure whip” (9-3-10)

“Fannie Mae says it will begin fining loan servicers who take too long to complete foreclosures once it’s been determined that delinquent borrowers don’t qualify for a loan modification or other alternatives like short sales”

Los Angeles Times – “Value of California’s properties falls 1.8% to $4.4 trillion” (9-3-10)

“The value of all types of properties fell 1.8% this year to $4.4 trillion, the California Board of Equalization reported Thursday. The total value fell 2.4% last year.”

Housing Wire - “Another homebuyer tax credit won’t solve economic crisis” (9-3-10)

“Whether a policy is deemed a success or not depends on what it intends to achieve. If the Obama administration hoped that the first homebuyer tax credit, which ran from January 2009 to April this year, would provide a temporary kick to home sales, then let’s break out the ticker tape. Over this period, total home sales increased by 27%, from an annualized 4.9 million to 6.2 million. Of course, not all of these extra sales were due to the tax credit; some homes were brought without the credit while others would have been purchased regardless. Nonetheless, the credit did temporarily boost sales.”

Housing Wire“August nonfarm payrolls shed 54,000 jobs” (9-3-10)

“Nonfarm payroll employment for August came in below analysts’ estimates, as 54,000 jobs were lost during the month, and the unemployment level rose slightly to 9.6%. The Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported federal employment shed another 121,000 jobs in August, including 114,000 temporary Census workers many of whom continue to trudge back to the ranks of the unemployed.”

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor event calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.