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206-TNG Radio – Jon R. Daurio 12-25-10

Friday, December 24th, 2010

Jon Daurio

John R. Daurio

Chairman of Kondaur Capital


 

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This week Bruce is joined by Jon R. Duario. Jon is the chairman and chief exective officer of Kondaur Capital. He founded Park Place Capital in 2001, and sold it to Ameriquest Mortgage Company in 2002. After the sale, the name of the business changed to Sprint Funding Corp, and Jon remained as president through May 2006. He received his Juris doctorate and Masters from UFC, and his BA Cum Laude from Harvard. He is also a fifth degree black belt in Tae Kwon Do.

This week Bruce is joined once again by Jon Daurio.  Mr. Daurio is currently the chairman and chief executive officer of Kondaur Capital.  Previously, Mr. Daurio co-founded Parkplace Capital in 2001, sold that business to Ameriquest Mortgage Company in ’02.  After the sale the name of the business was changed to Sprint Funding Corp.  John remained with Sprint as president, general counsel through May of 06.  John founded Encore Capital Corp., a national wholesale residential mortgage banker.  Mr. Daurio received his juris doctorate and masters from USC and his bachelor of arts degree cum laude from Harvard, and somehow in his spare time managed to get a fifth degree black belt in Tae Kwon Do.

Note pools most frequently involve a competitive bid situation, but not always. When a large pool of loans, or any pool of loans for that matter, is being sold, the seller typically will sell those loans.  Most analogous to what I think people would understand to be a sealed bid, although it’s not literally in a sealed envelope or anything like that, so it is a competitive bid situation.  Many of our sellers that we’ve dealt with repeatedly though will sell or deal with us on a negotiated trade basis, meaning that they’ll deal directly with us, and I believe they do that because we have proven ourselves over the last 3 and a half years that we’ve been in business and buying these loans to be if not the most competitive bidder meaning we’re paying the highest prices for these loans, at least the most experienced and, I’ll use the term easiest, purchaser to deal with because the purchase of these loans is not an easy procedure, and there’s tons of laws and issues that have to be addressed when a loan is purchased and servicing is transferred.

Its hard to imagine the infrastructure you have to have to do diligence on for a pool of loans, especially if it’s all over the country. That’s one of the reasons Daurio’s company has almost 500 employees and growing.

The way the market works, which is the majority, on a competitive basis, a pool of loans is given with information about the loans, the address of the house, the credit history of the borrower, the terms of the existing loan, the payment history, especially since I focus on non-performing loans, when the last payment was made, where those payments were made and you get what’s called an indicative bid.  We at Kondaur as well as others give an indicative bid stating, “If all of the information that you’ve provided to us is true, this is what our price would be.  However, we need to conduct a due diligence review of the loans in order to A. verify that the data that you’ve given us is true, and B. determine what other types of compensating factors or issues that could change what we offer for loans.  I will note that Kondaur Capital Corporation is unique and has a reputation as being the nation’s only true loan level bidder, meaning when we receive a pool of loans; let’s say 1,000 loans, we give 1,000 individual loan prices and allow the seller to cherry pick us. Bruce was surprised to hear this.

Many of Daurio’s competitors are surprised when Daurio explains to them which loans he doesn’t like out of a pool of 1,000. For example, I might say, “Okay, well I like your prices on these 820 loans, but I don’t like it on this 180 loans.”  Many of our competitors in that situation will say, “Well wait a second, we’ve gotta re-price because we assumed we were going to purchase all the loans.”  And that’s in essence the difference.  It’s that we do a meticulous, an extensive review of each individual loan to the point that each individual price stands on its own.  So in answer to your question, ‘How long does that take?’  Typically that takes us between two and three weeks to complete.

This is not for the purpose of getting the indicative bid. The indicative bid is something that we do on a macro basis or a modeling basis that would give a price.  And then the final price takes us about two or three weeks.

The value of a loan I would say is what a ready, willing and able buyer would pay for that loan, and because I am a ready, willing and able buyer, my purchase price is an accurate depiction of what the value of that loan is.  And in turning the value of that loan, we spend a tremendous amount of efforts analyzing both what the expected sale price would be of the home securing the loan assuming that we’re going to take title to the house as part of the resolution effort which we do approximately 75% of the time.  The (indistinguishable) majority by paying for a deed in lieu of foreclosure as opposed to foreclosing on the loan, as well as an analysis of what is the current credit situation of the borrower, which we determine with very little information available to us because during that bidding process we’re not allowed to contact the borrower.  We have to rely on existing servicing and collection notes and the origination file that might or might not be available.

For every 100 loans purchases, Kondaur eventually owns the house as an REO about 75% of the time. For the other 25% of loan purchases, Kondaur is selling the loan on a one-by-one basis or refinancing it.  With the available FHA programs, Kondaur could successfully do a refinance of the loan about 4% of the time.  About 1% of the time the borrower’s actually able to come up with funds to give me a short payoff where Kondaur will forgive a fairly significant amount of the principle balance but they’ll be able to pay me.  Or Kondaur will modify the note either by principle forgiveness and/or payment reduction, but in that situation Kondaur won’t hold it; it’ll still sell the note or it’ll sell it as is.

Kondaur sells 100% of the REOs that it takes title on, even after we’ve taken property back.  As Jon said in the past segment, when Kondaur takes title to a house as REO it is very, very quick if there are people still in the house to go through any of the cash for keys process.  Or, if the occupant won’t cooperate, an eviction process, and then Kondaur rehabilitates the property to put it in turn-key condition, meaning that whoever buys the house doesn’t have to put any money into the house in order to live in it, and then sell it.  Typically, Kondaur has a REO off the books within about 3 months.

There are some opportunities for investors willing to come in and pay at a lesser price and close these things in a week.  This prevents Daurio from taking the 3 month journey. But again, we don’t take cash because we have a need for liquidity.  I’m very, very fortunate in this sense that my company is very well capitalized.  We have access to well over a billion dollars of capital.  But the reason why we do it is I am very pessimistic on a national basis and especially in the Inland Empire as to home prices in 2011 and 2012.  So if there is an expected, which I think in the Inland Empire could be as high as another 1% per month decrease in the value of the homes.  If I get cash today, it’s better than trying to get under contract in 3 months.  This is a side note:  we, with rare exception, will ever accept a purchase offer where the close of escrow is beyond 30 days.

FHA has about 555,000 people 90 days late or more, and they only have 50,000 current REOs.  Daurio is interested in getting pools of loans that are able to be purchased from the Department of Housing and Urban Development.  He is currently dealing with members of HUD.  He is trying to figure out how we might be able to buy and/or service their loans.

Another thing that makes Kondaur Capital somewhat unique in this market, especially relative to other people that are buying these loans, is I require only two representations and warranties on behalf of the seller: that they own the loan, and that they can sell it.  Meaning that if they breech either of those representations or warranties; they didn’t own the loan or they didn’t have the ability to sell it, I can mandate under contract that they have to buy it back.  Things like title, what leans are on the property, I take upon myself the responsibility for determining that, and the way we determine it is rarely by a full-blown title insurance policy, but there’s a product that many of the title companies make available called an ownership and encumbrance, or ONE report, and that’s what we rely on for trying to determine what leans exist against the property or what the situation is with who really owns the property and how title is held.

We never buy a loan that’s in the MERS system.   One of the things that we require before we close on the purchase of any loans is that the loans are out of MERS before we purchase them. From the day I started the company and built it we wanted it out of MERS.  I won’t say I anticipated these kinds of issues, but I always want to try to minimize the number of parties that are involved and the resolution of the loan.  One of the reasons why we do very few short sales is because typically in a short sale the borrower’s going to vacate the house by selling it, and we’d rather just pay them for a deed in lieu of foreclosure and then sell the house ourselves.

Daurio has noticed some attitude changes of the occupants in the 3 years that he has been doing this. This is because of the media making borrowers more aware that owners of loans, like myself, would be willing to pay them for a deed in lieu of foreclosure despite the fact that they haven’t made payments for months or even years.  We’ve seen some people that are more amiable to take that because they didn’t even know it was available.  Then we have some borrowers that because of the publicity of issues on litigation with respect to issues like modifications or MERS or the robo-signer issues or things like that they’re holding out.  I guess there’s actually a third thing, and the third thing is that people are just making economic decisions that unlike what we offer at Kondaur Capital Corporation to a borrower to vacate, the borrowers are making economic decisions saying, “Okay, you’re willing to give me X dollars, but I could stay in my house rent-free for X number of months,” and the two don’t equate.  So therefore it’s economically better for them to remain in their house rent-free than it is to accept what so many of my competitors offer which is simply a nominal amount of money.

There are many failed loan modifications within these pools. Potentially half of the loans I buy today are failed modifications. Bruce is very surprised by this. Bruce doesn’t understand why a lender would choose the pool method of selling as opposed to making it one at a time.  He would think they would net more by doing this. Daurio thinks it’s more ignorance or purposeful sticking your head in the sand to avoid the issue.  Let’s recall that there is a separation of the owner of the loan and the servicer of the loan.  Many servicers of these loans are the same servicers that were granted the right to service these loans when these were performing loans and therefore the amount of money that the servicers are being paid to service the loans is woefully inadequate for the servicer to properly staff both in terms of quantity and quality of people.  Quite frankly these servicers aren’t staffed to be able to service these loans on a one-by-one basis; and the owner of the loans, even if they get smart enough to realize that this is an issue, is unwilling to pay the servicers to adequately staff.  This is not that bad of a decision because so many of the relationships are adversarial in the sense that a servicer typically makes money on servicing fees and therefore liquidating the loan is not in their best interest.  But it may be for the owner of the loan.  That’s why at Kondaur, we’re an owner servicer.  We do third-party service for some, but those are the entities that understand and we actually make our self obligated to take the route that is the best for the owner of the loan and not necessarily for us.  Daurio tries to align those interests in the contracts he has with them.

This round of foreclosures and not receiving payments is probably creating a lot more overhead for the servicers than they were anticipating. At Kondaur Capital Corporation, when we service with third party service, in our servicing agreements we really retain a tremendous amount of flexibility and authority to do what we think is best.  In fact, I have not taken on third party servicing assignments where the owner of the loan wants to inject their opinion.  In other words, they want to put a limit on how much I could offer for a cash for keys or for a deed in lieu of foreclosure based on things like a percentage of what the loan is worth or a percentage of what the house is worth or a percentage of the unpaid principle balance, all things which I think are irrelevant in determining how much should be offered to a borrower for cash for keys.  What should be offered to a borrower for cash for keys should be the subject of two analyses.  One, if the borrower were to make an economic decision and continue to live rent-free, what is that value relative to what is being offered?  And then secondly, what is the benefit to getting the house quickly, especially when you are like I am where you think housing prices are still going to depreciate fairly significantly in the upcoming months and years.

Bruce just did some research on not just the pricing of California in terms of what homes are selling for, but the cost per month. Cal Poly Pomona does a report and has for several decades, and twice a year they reappraise the same address in many different cities in California.  I went back to 1990 level pricing and compared it to 2010, and I’ll just pick Lancaster/Palmdale.  The actual price is -11% for that 20 year period, dollar for dollar, not inflation adjusted.  Interest rates were 10.2% in 1990, and interest rates now are say 4 and a half.  So you have a 55% discount on the cost of a loan and you have income that’s increased.   So it’s interesting that the market is so unwilling to buy a product that’s virtually on sale at an all-time level monthly.

Daurio agrees, but there are other situations in which, for an owner of a loan such as himself, getting ownership of that house can be faster and better.  It’s not just because he expects housing prices to continue to deteriorate, but also because rent-free borrowers in the house are not expending money on maintenance, and so there is an increased amount of what we call deferred maintenance, which is a great cost.  Thirdly, when we take title to a house by paying a borrower for a deed in lieu of foreclosure, the borrowers are not vindictive as we have heard borrowers have been in other foreclosures where they rip out the piping or cabinetry or plumbing or things like that.  Most of Kondaur’s borrowers, nobody happy about the fact that they’ve lost their home, but they feel like they’re definitely treated better and better off than with their previous servicer.

Bruce feels that is a good point, because somebody can do an awful lot of damage in a bad mood in one day, no doubt about that. Daurio considers this sort of property damage to be criminal. Bruce has found it very hard for anyone to acknowledge that this might be true.  We buy at the trustees sales, and we have sometimes people very blatantly doing things that were detrimental to the property.   You can call the police; you can even go to the extent of a lawsuit and it would be very tough to justify the activity just because it doesn’t seem like you have too many people on your side.

Daurio believes there will be some different occurrences in 2011 from 2010. He see more loans going to default. Also, he see more loss severities, because he believes housing prices will depreciate more in 2011 than 2010.

Kondaur Capital Corporation will begin purchasing commercial loans. Daurio started a subsidiary company called Kondaur Commercial; and it is going to both third-party service and purchase initially small balance commercial loans. By small balance he means 5 million or less.

Kondaur Capital has purchased quite a number of land loans.  It’s just not as large a market as one to four family or small balance commercial. Bruce thinks this would probably entail holding it at this point.  Daurio disagrees saying, “No actually, again, it’s all of a function of so many things in real estate:  you make money on the buy.  We buy land loans when we think we have an exit strategy that is profitable.”

For m ore information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 12/07/10

Tuesday, December 7th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

UCLA economists expect unemployment to remain above 10% until the end of 2012. TransUnion predicts the national mortgage delinquency rate could fall below 5% in 2011. A survey from RealtyTrac shows 60% of Americans believe housing will not recover for another 2 years. According to HOPE NOW, 1.54 million permanent mortgage modifications were completed in the first 3 quarters of this year.

In The News:

The Press Enterprise“Economic recovery to stay muted” (12-7-10)

“Unemployment in California should start to decline next year but is likely to remain above 10 percent until the end of 2012, an economic forecast released today found. The quarterly forecast from UCLA’s Anderson School of Management suggests that the state will see something in 2011 that has been lacking for more than two years: job growth.”

Wall Street Journal“U.S. Mortgage Delinquency Rate Could Fall to 5% in ’11″ (12-7-10)

“The percentage of U.S. consumers who are delinquent on their mortgages could fall to about 5% by the end of 2011, from an expected 6.2% at the end of this year, according to a leading credit bureau. Even so, the proportion of consumers who are 60 or more days overdue on their mortgages would still be sharply higher than the historical range of 1.5% to 2%, according to TransUnion LLC, which analyzed about 27 million randomly selected consumer records from its database.”

Housing Wire“JPMorgan sees GSE prepayment rates slowing in January” (12-7-10)

“The prepayment speeds on Fannie 15-year mortgages increased 5% last month from October, while Freddie prepayments climbed 8%, according to JPMorgan.”

Housing Wire“Private mortgage modifications reach 1.5 million to date, 125,000 in October” (12-7-10)

“Hope Now, a private sector mortgage alliance, said the mortgage industry has completed more than 1.54 million permanent loan modifications for homeowners from January through October, as foreclosure suspensions affected foreclosure sales and starts.”

Housing Wire“American homebuyers suffer from a crisis of faith: survey” (12-7-10)

“A housing conference call organized by real estate listing websites, Trulia and RealtyTrac, revealed 48% of potential homebuyers in America have lost faith in the ability of the mortgage industry and 24% percent lost faith in the ability of the government to manage said market.”

Bloomberg“Half of Americans Say Home Recovery at Least Two Years Away” (12-7-10)

“Almost six in 10 U.S. adults say a housing recovery is at least two years away, and more than a third say flawed lender practices are partially to blame, according to a survey by Trulia Inc. and RealtyTrac Inc.”

Orange County Register – “Chapman says prospects dim for housing” (12-7-10)

“Although Chapman University foresees modest price gains and increased homebuilding in Orange County next year, lingering problems from the housing bust will continue to dog the market. The number of homes for sale will be large, defaults and foreclosures will grow and consumer anxiety will be high, according to Chapman University’s 2011 economic forecast.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, the MBA reported that delinquency rates increased during the third quarter for most mortgage investor groups. Bernanke claimed the recovery would continue for at least a year, but that the U.S. still had  some trouble to overcome. Six banks were shut down Friday, which would cost the FDIC a total of $2.384billion.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor event calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 200 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 12/03/10

Friday, December 3rd, 2010

Resources:
Foreclosure Freeze Chills Home Buying
Jobless claims continue bouncing around with 6.3% rise last week
Consumer confidence in Nov. hits 5-month high
Freddie Mac to suspend foreclosure evictions this holiday season
Fed made $9 trillion in emergency overnight loans
Fed data reveal wide scope of loan action during financial crisis
Fannie, Freddie Defend Foreclosures Amid Criticism

Today’s News Synopsis:

New Federal regulations on real estate appraisals have been released. FHA has chosen to leave the loan limit at $729,750 for 2011. Some builders are experiencing a 15 to 25 percent decrease in construction costs. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the unemployment rate increased to 9.8%.

In The News:

Wall Street Journal“Deficit Plan Fails to Win Panel Support” (12-3-10)

“The president’s U.S. deficit commission received the backing of a majority of its 18-strong panel, but fell short of the 14 votes needed to possibly trigger congressional votes on its recommendations.”

Housing Wire“Regulators set final guidance on appraisals” (12-3-10)

“Federal regulatory agencies released final guidance Thursday on how financial institutions will conduct real estate appraisals, the first nationwide update since 1994.”

Housing Wire“Nonfarm payrolls add 39,000 jobs in November,unemployment rate up to 9.8%” (12-3-10)

“Nonfarm payroll employment rose slightly last month but considerably lower than most analysts were projecting adding just 39,000 jobs, and the unemployment level increased to 9.8%. The Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said employment in most industries changed little during November although temporary workers and the health care sectors continue to see jobs gains while retailing shed another 28,0000 jobs during the month.”

Housing Wire“FHA loan limit ceiling unchanged for 2011″ (12-3-10)

“The Federal Housing Administration released approved loan limits on mortgages it would insure in 2011, leaving the ceiling unchanged at $729,750. The Economic Stimulus Act of 2008 and the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008 raised the FHA loan-limit ceiling to help stabilize a shaky housing market. The national floor remains unchanged as well at $271,050.”

Housing Wire“Bair wants mortgages modified to mitigate losses before starting foreclosure” (12-3-10)

“Bair said servicing agreements need to give servicers the authority to attempt to mitigate losses in a timely manner and modify loans to address reasonably foreseeable defaults before putting the mortgage into the foreclosure process.”

Bloomberg - “Toll Brothers Deposits Rise 10% as Mortgage Rates Increase, Chairman Says” (12-3-10)

“Toll Brothers Inc., the largest U.S. luxury-home builder, saw deposits increase 10 percent compared with a year earlier in the past two weeks as mortgage rates began to rise, Chairman Robert Toll said.”

Orange County Register“Builders benefit from cost savings” (12-3-10)

“Builders say construction costs are down 15 to 25 percent. That translates into an average cost of $100,000 to $140,000 for just the ‘sticks and bricks’ (without land) for a modest, 2,000-square-foot house.”

Realty Times“Let it Shine, It’s Not Just Paint Color That Counts” (12-3-10)

“Many new tract homes are painted using a flat paint. While that may look nice at first, it can be very difficult to clean and instead of wiping off walls, you may find you have to touch them up with paint more frequently. Thankfully there are some other paint finishes that look great and are a bit more durable and easy to clean. The eggshell and low-sheen finishes put off a higher shine but they seem to last longer, stay cleaner, and are all around easier to maintain.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, Fannie Mae increased its minimum borrower credit score to 620. According to Lender Processing Services, loans were deteriorating 3 times faster than they are being approved. The average interest rate for 30-year, fixed rate mortgages declined to 4.7%

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor event calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 200 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 11/23/10

Tuesday, November 23rd, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

The CBIA reports housing production decreased 28% in October. National existing home sales declined 2.2%, and California home sales declined 3.5%, according to data from the NAR and CAR. Zillow claims interest rates fell again after last weeks sudden gain. Statistics from Lender Processing show foreclosures fell 36% in October.

In The News:

CBIA - “California Housing Production Continues Decline in October, CBIA Announces” (11-23-10)

“According to statistics compiled by the Construction Industry Research Board (CIRB), permits were pulled for 2,108 total housing units in October, down 28 percent from the same month a year ago and down 28 percent from September. Permits for single-family homes totaled 1,364, down 37 percent from October 2009 and down 21 percent from the previous month, while multifamily permits totaled 744, down 3 percent from a year ago and down 39 percent from September.”

NAR - “Existing-Home Sales Decline in October Following Two Monthly Gains” (11-23-10)

“Existing-home sales1, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, declined 2.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.43 million in October from 4.53 million in September, and are 25.9 percent below the 5.98 million-unit level in October 2009 when sales were surging prior to the initial deadline for the first-time buyer tax credit.”

CAR - “California home sales decline from previous month, year” (11-23-10)

“Statewide home resale activity declined 3.5 percent in October to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 450,360, down from September’s revised pace of 466,930, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations statewide. The October pace was down 19.6 percent from the revised 560,390 sales pace recorded in October 2009. The statewide sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2010 if sales maintained the September pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.”

Housing Wire“Zillow: 30-year mortgages head back down after one-week increase” (11-23-10)

“After a one-week turn around in mortgage rates, the 30-year, fixed-mortgage rate fell again to 4.27%, according to the Zillow Mortgage Marketplace weekly update.”

Housing Wire“FHFA: 30-year mortgages drop to new low of 4.46% in October” (11-23-10)

“The average interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 4.46% in October, a drop of 12 basis points from September when the rate was 4.58%, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency.”

Housing Wire“Freddie Mac delinquencies increase for first time since February” (11-23-10)

“Freddie Mac’s 90-plus day delinquency rate increased for the first time since February, according to the government sponsored enterprise’s monthly summary. The delinquency rate for single-family residences was 3.82% in October, up from 3.8% in September.”

Housing Wire“Bank earnings skyrocket in 3Q as FDIC problem list nears 17-year high” (11-23-10)

“Third-quarter earnings at institutions insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. continue to get stronger even as the number of banks on the regulator’s problem list nears the highest level in 17 years.”

Bloomberg - “U.S. Office Rebound to Be Delayed by `Shadow’ Space, Berkeley’s Rosen Says” (11-23-10)

“Unoccupied ‘shadow inventory’ accounts for 3 percent to 5 percent of total business leases, and that space will be filled before firms sign new rental agreements, Rosen, chairman of Berkeley’s Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics, said at a conference in San Francisco. Cloud computing and other tech advances let employees work away from offices, further reducing space needs, he said.”

Bloomberg - “Foreclosures of U.S. Homes Fell 36% After Freeze, Lender Processing Says” (11-23-10)

“Banks seized 79,886 homes, down 36 percent from a record 124,051 in September and the lowest number since May 2009, the Jacksonville, Florida-based real estate data company said in a report today. Lender Processing bases its figures on information collected from loan servicers at the time of foreclosure.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, the NAR reported that existing-home sales increased by 10.1 percent in October. Statistics showed that California workers, who earned the national median income, could afford 59.1 percent of the new and existing homes during the 3rd quarter of 2009. Multifamily lenders provided $88 billion in new financing for apartment buildings with 5 or more units during 2008.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor event calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 200 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 11/19/10

Monday, November 22nd, 2010

Resources:
Delinquencies and Loans in Foreclosure Decrease
Southland Home Sales Fall, Prices Flat
CoreLogic: Mortgage fraud up 20% from 2009
Freddie Mac survey shows mortgage rates at highest level since August
Freddie Mac survey shows mortgage rates at highest level since August
Home Buying Gets Tougher as Lenders Restrict FHA Loans
FHA Reserves Fall to Lowest on Record as Agency Boosts Capital
MERS to testify it forecloses only by mortgage servicer request
http://banking.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Hearings.LiveStream&Hearing_id=df8cb685-c1bf-4eea-941d-cf9d5173873a
Problems in Mortgage Servicing From Modification to Foreclosure
MERS CEO Defends Technology to Senate Committee
The Consequences of Mortgage Irregularities for Financial Stability… in Plain English
CAI Survey: Associations Hit Hard by Housing, Economic Slump
FTC Issues Final Rule to Protect Struggling Homeowners from Mortgage Relief Scams
Fiserv expects another big drop in home prices next year
S&P predicts more home price declines through 2011

Today’s News Synopsis:

October home sales fell 9.8%, according to RE/MAX. The Federal Trade Commission released a new rule banning companies from accepting fees on mortgage mods before a homeowner’s loan servicer deems the services rendered acceptable. The Federal Housing Finance Administration announced that loan limits on jumbo conforming loans will stay the same for the first nine months of 2011. The Treasury reports borrowers aided by HAMP increased to nearly 520,000 last month.

In The News:

Inman - “Median housing value fell 5.8% in 2009″ (11-19-10)

“Median housing value fell 5.8 percent in 2009, to $185,200 from $196,700 in 2008, the U.S. Census Bureau reported, according to data obtained from the American Community Survey (ACS).”

Housing Wire“Fed chairman disappointed in slow economic recovery” (11-19-10)

“Disappointingly slow. That’s Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s latest assessment of the economic recovery in the U.S. But, he does believe the central bank’s policy changes are helping.”

Housing Wire“Tightening mortgage tax code limits housing recovery: John Burns” (11-19-10)

“John Burns Real Estate Consulting said in a report Friday that government intervention is hurting the housing market, and the firm is growing more concerned that lawmakers will reduce the cap on mortgage interest rates that qualify for tax deductions ‘significantly.’”

Housing Wire“Credit Suisse lists mortgage servicers with highest Ginnie Mae delinquencies” (11-19-10)

“Ally Financial’s (GJM: 22.39 +0.40%) GMAC Mortgage holds the highest serious delinquency rate of Ginnie Mae-backed mortgages for any servicer, according to a report from investment bank Credit Suisse.”

Housing Wire“New FTC rule aimed at mortgage-relief scams” (11-19-10)

“The Federal Trade Commission unveiled a new rule that bans companies from accepting fees for mortgage modifications before a homeowner’s bank or loan servicer deems the services rendered acceptable.”

Housing Wire“Failed HAMP mod short sales increase through September” (11-19-10)

“Top mortgage servicers have completed 91,827 short sales or deeds-in-lieu of foreclosure on canceled trial or declined modifications through the Home Affordable Modification Program as of September, up 27% from the previous month, according to data from the Treasury Department.”

Bloomberg - “U.S. Homeowners Drop Out of Foreclosure Program Amid Record Defaults” (11-19-10)

“Borrowers aided by the Home Affordable Modification Program grew to nearly 520,000 in October, up 23,750 from a month earlier, the Treasury said in its monthly report. The increase was less than five percent. A total of 36,300 borrowers have dropped out of the plan for failing to make their payments, an increase of 24 percent from a month earlier.”

Housing Wire“RE/MAX: October home sales slide as seasonal slowdown hits market” (11-19-10)

“October home sales slid 9.8% from September and 30.2% compared to the year-ago period as seasonal slowdowns and the expired homebuyer’s tax credit took their toll, according to the RE/MAX National Housing Report released Friday.”

Housing Wire“Jumbo loan limits remain the same in 2011″ (11-19-10)

“The loan limits on jumbo conforming loans will remain unchanged for the first nine months of 2011 the Federal Housing Finance Administration said Friday. The agency recently enacted a congressional continuing resolution to maintain the limits.”

Housing Wire - “Failed HAMP mod short sales increase through September” (11-19-10)

“Top mortgage servicers have completed 91,827 short sales or deeds-in-lieu of foreclosure on canceled trial or declined modifications through the Home Affordable Modification Program as of September, up 27% from the previous month, according to data from the Treasury Department.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, an amendment was passed allowing federal regulators to dismantle financial firms considered to be “too big to fail”.  According to PMI Group, new home sales had decreased by 3.6 percent. The NAHB estimated that families earning the national median income could afford 70.1 percent of the new and existing homes sold in Q3 of 2009. First American CoreLogic reported that home prices declined by 9.8 percent in September from the previous year.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor event calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 200 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 11/1/10

Monday, November 1st, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

Credit Suisse estimates Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will have cumulative losses of $321 billion. Private mortgage servicers modified 119,585 loans in September, over 4 times as many modifications performed through HAMP. Statistics from the Federal Reserve show home equity accounted for 16.2% of net worth in the 2nd quarter.

In The News:

RecordNet.com - “Economic forecast heads south” (10-31-10)

“He previously forecast California’s unemployment rate would drop to 11 percent in 2011 and to less than 10 percent the year after. The October report now has state jobless rates remaining above 10 percent well into 2013. San Joaquin County will remain in the doldrums a while longer, with annual jobless rates hovering above 17 percent for the next two years before easing to 16.4 percent in 2013, according to the Pacific forecast.”

Market Watch“White-collar recession, blue-collar depression” (10-30-10)

“the disparity between white-collar and blue-collar unemployment is stunning: 4.5% among college graduates versus 10.8% for those with a high-school diploma, and 14.3% for those without one.”

Daily Finance“The Foreclosure Mess: It’s Even Worse in ‘Nonjudicial’ States” (10-30-10)

“In 23 states, before a lender can foreclose on a homeowner for defaulting on a mortgage, it must take the homeowner to court. As we’ve seen, even with judicial review that process has still been shot through with problems. But for a troubled homeowner in California, Texas and 25 other ‘nonjudicial’ states, the robo-signing scandal and foreclosure mess are even more dangerous because the lender doesn’t have to go to court to foreclose. Fraudulent paperwork can be used with impunity unless the homeowner is in bankruptcy, which is a judicial process, or unless the homeowner is represented in the foreclosure by an attorney who knows what to look for.”

Housing Wire“SEC reminds banks to disclose impacts of mortgage repurchases, foreclosure reviews” (11-1-10)

“Major banks are struggling to get an accurate estimate on how much agency and private-label mortgage-backed securities losses they will be responsible for repaying to the purchasers of those securities, such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.”

Housing Wire“Credit Suisse projects $321 billion more losses for Fannie, Freddie” (11-1-10)

“Credit Suisse analysts estimate $321 billion in cumulative losses at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, based on a further 10% decline in home prices over the next year. Under that scenario, prices would flatten over in following year and experience a 3% annual appreciation going forward.”

Housing Wire“TransUnion: delinquent mortgage roll rates highest in month after recession” (11-1-10)

“The number of delinquent mortgages that moved to a more serious status peaked the month after the recession officially ended, according to a study by TransUnion. The credit information company said the level of consumers who rolled their delinquency status to 60 days from 30 and to 90 days from 60 reached its highest point in July 2009. Nearly a quarter of those who were 30-days late on their mortgage payments in June 2009 became 60 days past due in July 2009, according to TransUnion”

Housing Wire“Private mortgage modifications outnumber HAMP 4 to 1 in September” (11-1-10)

“Mortgage servicers modified 119,585 loans through private programs in September, more than four times the 27,840 done through the Treasury’s Home Affordable Modification Program, according to the Hope Now alliance.”

Housing Wire“Monday Morning Cup of Coffee” (11-1-10)

“Fannie Mae directed servicers to work closely with Housing Finance Agencies across the country now that the HFAs received a total $7.6 billion in Hardest Hit Funds from the Treasury Department. The money will be used to provide temporary relief to unemployed mortgage borrowers through the HHF Unemployment Programs and delinquent borrowers through the HHF Reinstatement Programs.”

Bloomberg - “Housing Matters Little to U.S. Consumers’ Wealth: Chart of the Day” (11-1-10)

“home equity accounted for 16.2 percent of net worth at the end of the second quarter, the Fed’s data showed.”

Bloomberg - “JPMorgan Trims Biggest Mortgage Putback Estimate to $90 Billion” (11-1-10)

“JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts lowered their estimate for the cost to sellers of repurchasing soured U.S. mortgages to as much as $90 billion from a range that went as high as $120 billion.”

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor event calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 10/4/10

Monday, October 4th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

GMAC Mortgage, JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America may have to reconsider past evictions due to poor foreclosure processing procedures. According to the NAR, pending home sales rose 4.3% in August. The CAR expects 2010 home sales to be 10% lower than the total number of sales in 2009. 10.2% of all mortgages in the nation’s top-100 most populated areas are over 90 days delinquent.

In The News:

New York Times“Flawed Paperwork Aggravates a Foreclosure Crisis” (10-3-10)

“The flawed practices that GMAC Mortgage, JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America have recently begun investigating are so prevalent, lawyers and legal experts say, that additional lenders and loan servicers are likely to halt foreclosure proceedings and may have to reconsider past evictions.”

Wall Street Journal“Number of the Week: 41.7 Million Spend Too Much on Housing” (10-2-10)

“As of 2009, some 41.7 million U.S. households, or 36.7% of the total, faced housing costs that exceeded 30% of their pretax income — a level typically defined as the threshold of affordability. That’s an increase of 1.5 million from 2007, despite a sharp drop in house prices and policy makers’ extraordinary efforts to bring down mortgage payments.”

Washington Post“Paperwork storm hits nation’s biggest bank” (10-2-10)

“A Bank of America executive, Renee Hertzler, said in a February deposition in Massachusetts that she signed as many as 8,000 foreclosure documents a month without reviewing them.”

Orange County Register“When real estate riches turn to rags” (10-4-10)

“Bankruptcy court records show that nearly 700 mostly elderly investors entrusted their savings in PPA, as the firm is known. Attorneys estimate that they lost $80 million to $90 million – most, if not all, the money that investors put in. PPA raised cash from investors with plans to buy apartment buildings, fix them up and sell them for a profit, promising returns of up to 15 percent a year.”

NAR - “Pending Home Sales Show Another Gain” (10-4-10)

“The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator, rose 4.3 percent to 82.3 based on contracts signed in August from a downwardly revised 78.9 in July, but is 20.1 percent below August 2009 when it was 103.0. The data reflects contracts and not closings, which normally occur with a lag time of one or two months.”

CAR - “C.A.R. 2011 California Housing Market Forecast” (10-4-10)

“California home sales for 2010 are forecast to decline 10 percent from the 2009 sales figure of 546,500 homes sold. Sales in 2011 are projected to increase a lackluster 2 percent to 502,000 units compared with 492,000 units (projected) in 2010. After two consecutive years of record-setting price declines, the median home price in California will climb 11.5 percent in 2010 to $306,500 and increase another 2 percent in 2011 to $312,500, according to the forecast.”

Housing Wire - “Study shows one in 10 mortgages seriously delinquent” (10-4-10)

“Working with the Local Initiatives Support Corp., and the Urban Institute gathered and analyzed delinquency data on 366 U.S. metro areas. Seriously delinquent mortgages are behind on payments by 90-plus days or in foreclosure. According to the study 10.2% of all mortgages in the top-100 populated areas were in this category, up from 7.7% in March 2009.”

Housing Wire“New FHA data requirements for sponsored origination effective today” (10-4-10)

“New data requirements for loans originated by sponsored originators for securities backed by the Federal Housing Administration take effect today. If a lender plans to use a sponsored originator, they must be registered in the FHA database and included on all loan application documents.”

Housing Wire“Fed official hints at second round of quantitative easing” (10-4-10)

“Federal Reserve Bank of New York Executive Vice President Brian Sack is dropping hints that the Fed will soon begin to purchase mortgage-backed securities as part of quantitative easing and larger economic stimulus.”

Housing Wire - “2010 consumer bankruptcy filings hit highest level since 2005″ (10-4-10)

“Consumer bankruptcy filings increased 3.3% from August, to 130,329. Chapter 13 filings accounted for 30% of those, also a slight increase from the month previous. The American Banking Institute it expects the number of bankruptcy filings to steadily increase.”

Housing Wire“Home prices drop for fourth straight month: Altos Research” (10-4-10)

“Home prices in the Altos Research 10-city composite index dropped 1.5% to an average median price of $465,968 in September after a 1% drop the month before.”

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor event calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

194-TNG Radio – I Survived Real Estate 2010 10-02-10

Friday, October 1st, 2010

I Survived Real Estate 2010

I Survived Real Estate 2010


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September 17th, 2010, The Norris Group returns with its award winning event I Survived Real Estate 2010. The video also now available on The Norris Group website.

The Norris Group has assembled an incredible line up of industry experts to discuss the state of REO from the inside. Topics will include regulatory intervention and aftermath, bulk buying, myths and facts, and opportunities emerging for real estate professionals. 100 percent of the proceeds support the Orange County affiliate of Susan G. Komen for the Cure. This event would not be possible without generous help from the following platinum partners: Foreclosure Radar and Sean O’Toole, the San Diego Creative Real Estate Investors Association and Bill Tan, Investors Workshops and Shawn Watkins and Angel Bronsgeest, Invest Club for Women and Iris Veneracion and Bobby Alexander, Claudia Buys Houses, The Business Press, Frye Wiles, MVT Productions, and White House Catering.

This week The Norris Group Real Estate Radio Show is broadcasting I Survived Real Estate 2010.

You must have 2 different criteria for Bruce’s no down payment program in order to prevent foreclosures. The reason why this program will work is because it is set up to serve 3 borrowers simultaneously. Yes, you are going to have a failure rate with a no-down mortgage, but you pick the percentage. When your payment is less than rent, is it going to be 20 percent? Bruce doubts it. But for the sake of argument, let’s say that foreclosure rates are at 20 percent under this program. If 2 million people sign up for the no-down program, and 400,000 people walk away, then let that loan get assumed by the next buyer without qualification. The likely target buyer will be the person who lost their house in foreclosure during the past 3 years. They can’t get new credit, but they might want to return to those “pride of ownership” homes. They will write a check, and save the system from 1 more foreclosure. The original intent of the program is to get first time buyers  into a house. The secondary benefit is it will get homes back to the people that lost their homes.

Have you ever noticed that if you have great financing, then you can get more for a property? You could probably get a premium for financing on Bruce’s program.

A secondary feature of this program is that when it goes to trustee sale, the opening bid would be just the back payments. Example: Lets say you have a loan amount of $150,000 at 4.5% interest. 3 months behind, people begin the foreclosure process. 4 months later, the foreclosure sale begins. You’re 7 months behind on the property’s payment, with $1,000 dollars of payment per month. If the opening bid at the trustee sale was only $9,000, how many do you think would revert to the lender? None of them. We would fight over them. At 4.5% financing, that is an amazing deal. Not a large percentage of the sales would get to that point, but they would provide financing to investors; the group that no one wants to finance. Investors would overbid on a situation as competitive as that.

What would we do with the excess money being raised from these properties? Lets not reward people who do not do what they sign up to do. Let’s build a fund for something that does good. It doesn’t even have to be a government program. Bruce frequently sees ads in the newspaper in which wealthy people are encouraged to donate their money. We should donate this money to a nonprofit company who can make this loan. Doing this will cause no losses, and it will end in a yield. Bruce cannot see this program losing money.

Over the next few weeks we will be broadcasting the speeches given by the rest of panelists. These panelists are Peter Wayman, Christopher Thornberg, Joseph Magdziarz, Sean O’Toole, Tommy Williams, Daniel Phelan, and Sarah Letts.

Peter Wayman joined Freddie Mac in January 2010 as Sr. REO Sales Director.  In this position, he oversees the design of sales strategies and how they are applied across REO portfolios.  His group oversees the retail sales process as well as auction and investor sales.  Peter is also responsible for the affordable strategies selling homes to organizations engaged in neighborhood stabilization.

Wayman came to Freddie Mac with 32 years of executive relocation experience working with various organizations including Cartus, Prudential and Citigroup.  He was recognized for a lifetime industry achievement and inducted into the Hall of Leaders by Worldwide ERC.  Peter is a graduate of Cornell University with a BS in Hotel Administration.

Christopher Thornberg is an expert in the study of regional economies, real estate dynamics, labor markets and business forecasting. In 2006 he co-founded Beacon Economics, an economic research and consulting firm that specializes in real estate markets, local economic development, and public and private policy issues.

Dr. Thornberg has established a reputation as one of the state’s leading economic forecasters. In December 2007, he was appointed to California State Controller John Chiang’s Council of Economic Advisors – the body that advises the state’s chief fiscal officer about critical economic issues facing California. Dr. Thornberg also serves on the advisory board of Paulson & Co. Inc., one of Wall Street’s most successful hedge funds. He has been involved in a number of special studies measuring the effect of important events on the economy.

Joseph C. Magdziarz, MAI, SRA is the President Elect of the Appraisal Institute. Magdziarz has been an active member of the Appraisal Institute for 38 years. He has served in a variety of capacities at all levels of the organization.

At the regional level, Magdziarz has served two terms as Regional Vice Chair and two terms as Region III Chair. He has also been a regional representative for many years. On the national level, Magdziarz served two terms on the Appraisal Institute’s National Board of Directors. He has served as Chair of the Education Committee for five years and has also chaired the National Audit Committee, Instructor and Faculty Committees, and Education and Publications Committees. In addition, he has served on a number of project teams.

Mr. Phelan is President and CEO, charged with the day-to-day leadership of Pacific Southwest Realty Services mortgage operations. Pacific Southwest Realty Services is an investment firm focused on commercial real estate, representing and advising both real estate clients and institutional investors in debt and equity placement, strategic planning, property sales and loan administration. Pacific Southwest Realty Services brings competence and integrity to helping Investors and Owners meet their capital needs.

Mr. Phelan joined Pacific Southwest Realty Services in September 1973 after graduating with a B.S. from Creighton University and has been working in the mortgage banking industry ever since. He is both a Certified Mortgage Banker (CMB) and a Charter Realty Investor (CRI) and has been very active and has held various positions in the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), California Mortgage Bankers Association (CMBA), local building industry trade groups and the CRI Society Board.

Thomas L. Williams is a graduate of Penn State University (B.S. Animal Science) and the Certified Auctioneers Institute (CAI). Representing the third generation of Williams family auctioneers dating back to the mid-1800s, Williams is also a graduate of the historic Reppert School of Auctioneering. He has over 40 years experience in real estate auctions, land development and real estate investment. He currently serves as Immediate Past President of the National Auctioneers Association.

A founding partner of Williams & Williams, Williams served as president from 1986-2000, and became board chairman in 2001. He also co-founded and served as managing partner of Lowderman & Williams Auctioneers from 1965-85. He has conducted over 10,000 auctions in all 48 of the contiguous United States and Canada, and is an advisor to auctions conducted throughout Western Europe, South Africa, Australia and New Zealand.

Sean O’Toole is Founder & CEO of ForeclosureRadar.com, the only company that tracks every foreclosure in California with daily updates on all foreclosure auctions. Prior to ForeclosureRadar Sean spent 15 years building and launching software companies before entering the foreclosure business in 2002 where he has successfully bought and sold more than 150 foreclosure properties.

Sarah Letts is responsible for implementing Fannie Mae’s neighborhood stabilization strategies including pool sales of REO to government entities, land banks, and nonprofits. She joined Fannie Mae in 1999, and prior to her current position, she specialized in debt financing and equity investments for affordable housing. Before joining Fannie Mae, Sarah developed affordable housing on behalf of community development corporations in Los Angeles and Chicago. Sarah received bachelor’s degrees from Stanford University in economics and political science and a masters degree from UCLA’s graduate school of architecture and urban planning.

Thornberg was the next speaker for the event.

Thornberg begins by disagreeing with Bruce over his zero down program. He explains that FHA loans have been spiking over the last 10 years. Bruce asks, “What about the first 35 years?” Thornberg believes that the activity over the last 5 years is the most relevant, but Bruce believes it is the pricing structure that is most important.

Paul Romer from Stanford University once said, “A crisis is a terrible thing to waste.” Thornberg believes we have wasted our most recent crisis. We keep hearing how the consumer has taken over too much debt, but this is not the case. We learned in the Great Depression that banks should not be allowed to leverage up. Leveraging up turns a small problem into a huge one.

In 1960, of all private sector debt in the U.S., 10% was from the financial sector. In 2007, the financial sector represented 43% of outstanding private sector debt. Consumers didn’t really leverage that much.

We still haven’t really addressed the problem of leveraging. After Lehman Bros fell, they created TARP, and handed money to the organizations causing the problem.

Bruce has a hard time understanding how inflation emerges when it is difficult for wages to increase, and when it is difficult for businesses to ask for product increases. Because Bruce read a book given to him by Thornberg, he now understands that inflation actually drives both of those things. Inflation occurs when the quantity of money rises more rapidly than output. This is known as real GDP. The more rapid the rise in the quantity of money per unit of output, the greater the rate of inflation.

Bruce asks, “If Milton Freedman was looking at Japan’s growth of money over the last 20 years, haven’t they created a lot of money?” Thornberg replies, “no”. Economists agree that the problem with Japan’s central bank is that they have been unwilling to poor liquidity into the economy. Japan went through a period of quantitative easing. All their cash sat in banks as a form of excess reserves. Japan’s banks refused to let money leave their reserves, and so their money supply did not expand.

In Argentina, the government prints money and they spend it directly. That is automatically inflationary, because it is instantly being put into the economy.

Ben Bernanke was once known as “Helicopter Ben”, because he had an interesting proposition. If you quantitave ease with the banks, they may not lend it out. If they don’t lend it out, you can give the money to the government to spend, or you can fly around in helicopters and throw the money out in bags. Thornberg does not think that this is a bad idea. One might even argue that this is a better idea than giving the money to the banks or letting the government spend it.

Right now, we are going through a period of quantitative easing. Our government poured money into the banks, and most of it is sitting in the reserves. However, some of the money has gotten into the money supply. As a result, we are staying in the 1 to 2 percent growth range, which is not deflationary.

Thornberg believes price levels can be effectively controlled by policy, if you are willing to go far enough. Ben Bernanke has stood in front of congress, and has announced that he will go far enough. If he sees any hint of deflation, he will pour more money into the system. If he has to go up in a helicopter and throw it out, he will. Ben Bernanke has an incredible amount of control over the price level. The biggest potential problem is that if he fights it too dramatically, then he could set off inflation. At this point in time, Thornberg thinks Bernanke has done a great job with keeping things balanced. Inflation might be a little too low, but we haven’t gone into an unhealthy range of inflation or deflation.

If Bernanke had not poured trillions of dollars into the system, we may have gone into a deflationary situation. That would have lead to deeper problems inside the economy. Bruce worries that we may be mortgaging our future, but Thornberg is not concerned about this, so long as Bernanke is willing to pull the money out at the right time.

Thornberg is not concerned about what Bernanke is doing with the Fed’s cash, but he is concerned about the fiscal problems that may develop. Fiscal changes occur when congress chooses to spend $4 trillion, but only tax $2.7 trillion. In this case, they would have to borrow the extra $1.3 trillion from the rest of the world. That $1.3 trillion must be paid back. When Bernanke moves money around, he doesn’t cause any future liabilities, because he can withdraw that money.

When Bernanke chooses to withdraw that money, it will have a significant effect on the real estate business and the entire economy. Bruce owns a book named An Antique Book of Interest Rates, which was made in 1955. The lowest interest rate in the book is 4.5%. This is not as low as the rates we have right now. This is what Thornberg is most worried about right now. We are in a bond bubble.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

Thank you for being a Gold Sponsor for I Survived Real Estate 2010: Adrenaline Athletics, Benton Investment Group, Community RE-Invest Group, Delmae Properties, Elite Auctions, Entrust California, Everlast Photography, Inland Empire Investors Forum, Keystone CPA, Landwood Title, Las Brisas Escrow, Leivas Financial Services, Mike Cantu, North San Diego Real Estate Investors Association, Northern California Real Estate Investors Association, Personal Real Estate Investor Magazine, Realty 411 Magazine, San Jose Real Estate Investor Association, Rick and LeeAnne Rossiter, San Jose Real Estate Investor Association, Starz Photography, Summit Solutions, Tony Alvarez, Wealth Point, and Westin South Coast Plaza.

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 9/28/10

Tuesday, September 28th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

Property values in 20 U.S. cities increased 3.2% from last year, according to the S&P index. FHFA reports 30-year, fixed mortgage rates decreased to 4.7% in August. The House of Representatives has proposed a new bill which may allow 30 million homeowners to refinance at current interest rates.

In The News:

Mortgage Bankers Association - “Paper Examines Persistent Biases in Analyses of Mortgage Market Discrimination and Credit Risk” (9-28-10)

“False assumptions introduce systematic biases into the estimates that make the models fail in ways that are particularly troubling. Discrimination tests tend to produce false positive indications of discrimination where none exists and tests for default risk are particularly bad at detecting instances where future default rates are likely to rise significantly.”

Bloomberg - “Case Says Housing Will Grow Slowly After Free-Fall: Tom Keene” (9-28-10)

“The U.S. housing market has reached its lows and will expand slowly as the economic recovery remains subdued, said the S&P/Case-Shiller index co-creator Karl Case. The index of property values in 20 U.S. cities increased 3.2 percent in July from 12 months earlier, the smallest year- over-year gain since March.”

Inman - “Report: Don’t give up on ‘nonprime’ lending” (9-28-10)

“With so many people now saddled with poor credit, reestablishing ‘nonprime’ lending is increasingly important to the future of homeownership, researchers at Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies argue in a new report.”

Housing Wire“FHFA: August average contract mortgage rate fell to 4.7%” (9-28-10)

“The average contract rate for 30-year, fixed mortgages in August fell 14 basis points to 4.7% from 4.84% (or 3% overall) from the month earlier, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency.”

Housing Wire“CDS drags commercial banks, as trade revenue slips 20%: OCC” (9-28-10)

“Commercial banks reported trading revenue of $6.6 billion in the second quarter of 2010, down 20% from the first quarter, but up 28% from one year prior, according to a report released by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.”

Housing Wire“New House bill would clear refinancing on 30 million GSE mortgages” (9-28-10)

“A new bill before the House of Representatives aims to allow up to 30 million homeowners with mortgages held or backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to refinance with rates locked in at the current historical lows.”

Housing Wire“Business Roundtable: Big company CEOs cautious about economy” (9-28-10)

“The CEOs of the country’s largest companies plan to boost capital spending over the next six months, but have lower sales and employment expectations, according to the Business Roundtable’s third-quarter CEO index. The survey showed 49% of CEOs expect higher capital spending over the next six months, up from 43% who said they expectetd increased capital outlays in the previous quarter’s survey.”

Housing Wire“43% of Bank of America HAMP trial cancellations pending action” (9-28-10)

“Of the 148,129 Home Affordable Modification Program trials Bank of America has canceled through August, more than 63,000, or 43%, still await additional loss mitigation action, according to Treasury Department data.”

Housing Wire“JPMorgan finds delinquencies in prime RMBS increasing slightly” (9-28-10)

“Month-on-month, the numbers do not vary greatly with 60-day delinquencies up to 11.2% across prime indices, 30.9% across Alt-A, 42.7% for option ARM, and 41.5% for subprime.”

Bloomberg - “Ally Financial Asked to Halt Evictions in Colorado” (9-28-10)

“Ally Financial Inc., the lender that stopped evictions in 23 states amid concern that its foreclosure process may be illegal, was asked by Colorado’s attorney general to extend the freeze by its GMAC Mortgage unit to his state.”

CNN - “FDIC faces costly WaMu claim” (9-28-10)

“The FDIC, busy cleaning up after the biggest run of bank failures in 20 years, now faces a costly legal battle with perhaps the biggest beneficiary of the financial meltdown of 2008, JPMorgan Chase (JPM). The bank wants the FDIC to cover the cost of defending lawsuits facing JPMorgan following its September 2008 fire sale acquisition of Washington Mutual, the Seattle thrift whose collapse ranks as the biggest-ever U.S. bank failure.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, the Federal Reserve printed $860 billion in mortgage-backed securities. Under a U.S. Treasury Department program,  states that provided  mortgages to low-income borrowers received up to 35 billion dollars in Federal aid. According to the SoCal MLS, distressed sales accounted for 40 percent of all Orange County sales in July 2009.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor event calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 9/27/10

Monday, September 27th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

California air-quality regulators adopted 10- and 25-year targets for reducing greenhouse gases. Fannie Mae is developing a loan forbearance program for military families. Nearly 33% of Americans have credit scores below 620. John Burns predicts that sales of distressed properties will peak in 2011 at 2.3 million transactions.

In The News:

San Francisco Chronicle“Top 1% of earners get 20% of the money” (9-26-10)

“Former Clinton administration labor secretary Robert Reich, now a public policy professor at UC Berkeley, argues that working class incomes have stagnated for so long that ordinary consumers – who account for about 70 percent of all economic activity – have lost the buying power to pull the country out of recession.”

Los Angeles Times“Trashing the dollar to save the economy” (9-25-10)

“If something’s got to be sacrificed to put the domestic economy on the road to a sustainable recovery, the dollar’s value against other currencies seems a good candidate. That’s what the Federal Reserve signaled this week — and what Congress, in no uncertain terms, is telling the Chinese.”

Mortgage Bankers Association“Study Examines the Variety of Alternative Mortgage Loan Products Around the World” (9-27-10)

“The study entitled, ‘International Comparison of Mortgage Product Offerings’, which was conducted by Dr. Michael Lea, Director of the Corky McMillin Center for Real Estate at San Diego State University and sponsored by MBA’s Research Institute for Housing America (RIHA), examines the predominant mortgage designs and characteristics that exist in different international markets and how they have performed prior to and during the crisis. The study examined 12 developed countries with distinctly different mortgage market and product configurations.”

North Bay Business Journal“Business groups object to greenhouse gas targets” (9-27-10)

“State air-quality regulators late last week adopted 10- and 25-year targets for reductions in greenhouse gases in the major metropolitan areas in the state over the objections of some business groups and certain policy planners that the targets for the Los Angeles and greater San Francisco Bay areas will result in high fuel and transportation costs and more environmental-impact lawsuits for real estate developers.”

Sacramento Bee“Fannie Mae offers housing aid to military families” (9-27-10)

“Mortgage giant Fannie Mae plans to give military families a break on their home loan payments if they are struggling because of the death or injury of a service member.”

Orange County Register“1 in 3 unlikely to qualify for mortgage” (9-27-10)

“Borrowers with credit scores under 620 who requested purchase loan quotes for 30-year fixed, conventional loans were unlikely to get even a single loan quote on Zillow Mortgage Marketplace, even if they offered a relatively high down payment of 15 to 25%, Zillow says. According to myFICO.com, nearly one-third of Americans, or 29.3%, has a credit score that low.”

Housing Wire“DebtX August CRE loan value up to 81%” (9-27-10)

“The value of commercial loans priced in August by The Debt Exchange that collateralize commercial mortgage-backed securities rose to 81% of the original balance, the loan sale advisor said. DebtX priced 57,586 commercial real estate loans last month worth a combined $679.1 billion that collateralize 626 CMBS trusts. The aggregate August value is up from 79.4% in July and higher than the 77% a year earlier.”

Housing Wire“Fannie Mae EarlyCheck looks to reduce future repurchase risk” (9-27-10)

“Between 2005 and 2007, many of the loans originated did not meet crucial standards set by the GSEs. Banks are now being forced to repurchase those loans. But director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, Edward DeMarco, said in his congressional speech two weeks ago that the GSEs had more than $11 billion in outstanding repurchase requests at the end of the second quarter. Fitch Ratings predicted in August that the buyback amount for just the big four banks could reach $180 billion.”

Housing Wire“Rating agencies disregarded mortgage quality risks, former Clayton exec says” (9-27-10)

“Between the first quarter of 2006 and the second quarter of 2007, Clayton reviewed more than 911,000 mortgages for its clients, such as Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs, that sold them as security pools. Johnson told the FCIC only half of them, 54%, met the kinds of standards these Wall Street firms were advertising to investors. The other 46% were “bad loans” written on unchecked information such as borrower stated income.”

Housing Wire“Monday Morning Cup of Coffee” (9-27-10)

“Sales of distressed properties will peak in 2011 at 2.3 million transactions before falling to more normal levels at 850,000 in 2016, according to a report from John Burns Real Estate Consulting.”

Press Enterprise - “2010 real estate survivors celebrate and look at market” (9-27-10)

“Bruce Norris, who hosted the Sept. 17 reception, dinner and panel discussion, took a minute to inform the panelists, including representatives from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, that the audience would love the chance to buy and fix up foreclosed houses in bulk. Several times the panelists, who also included outspoken economist Christopher Thornberg and experts in the appraisal, mortgage banking and auctioning sectors, pointed to the discrepancy between high mortgage delinquency rates and a limited number of bank-owned homes available for purchase.”

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor event calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.