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196-TNG Radio – I Survived Real Estate 2010 10-15-10

Saturday, October 16th, 2010

I Survived Real Estate 2010

I Survived Real Estate 2010


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September 17th, 2010, The Norris Group returns with its award winning event I Survived Real Estate 2010. The video also now available on The Norris Group website.

The Norris Group has assembled an incredible line up of industry experts to discuss the state of REO from the inside. Topics will include regulatory intervention and aftermath, bulk buying, myths and facts, and opportunities emerging for real estate professionals. 100 percent of the proceeds support the Orange County affiliate of Susan G. Komen for the Cure. This event would not be possible without generous help from the following platinum partners: Foreclosure Radar and Sean O’Toole, the San Diego Creative Real Estate Investors Association and Bill Tan, Investors Workshops and Shawn Watkins and Angel Bronsgeest, Invest Club for Women and Iris Veneracion and Bobby Alexander, Claudia Buys Houses, The Business Press, Frye Wiles, MVT Productions, and White House Catering.

This week The Norris Group Real Estate Radio Show is broadcasting I Survived Real Estate 2010.

Last year we went through a major change in the auto industry. Many dealerships are closed. Tommy believes we do not face the reality of major changes in America. No longer having a need for a car dealer, a drug store, or a shoe store is not necessarily a bad thing. New forms of business are not bad things, but they change the paradigm of the economy. We have to restructure the way we think. Tommy asks the other panelists a solution to the problem.

We have lost 8 million jobs in the U.S. 2 million came from construction, 2 million came from manufacturing, and 1 million came from retail. Those 5 million people will not find jobs any time soon. Its awful to say, but this economy can grow with the burden of those people for a while. This is a social problem, but this is not an economic problem.

Bruce Norris asks Thornberg if he has read the book “The World is Flat”. Thornberg claims the author is completely wrong. The author is not an economist, and Thornberg wishes people wouldn’t treat the author as if he was an economist. U.S. incomes have been rising at the same pace for the last 45 years. The developed world has not been influenced much by China. Our lives have been made better because of the cheap products we get on a daily basis. There are some casualties, but for the majority of us, our lives have been made better by the rise of China. Mexico, on the other hand, got hurt by China. The world is not flat, but Mexico did not get flattened. Our real income has gone up, on average, over the last ten years. The bottom 20 percent have been struggling forever, but the majority of us are doing well.

Poverty in the U.S. means having an apartment, car, free education and a decent amount of health care. Go live in Somalia if you want to talk about tough times.

When you have inflation, but you don’t have the ability to ask for more for the car you were going to build because somebody has a cheaper import, how does that not have an impact? You have to make a change. The change can come from trade or technology. A lot of candle makers lost their jobs when the light bulb came out. Are you going to hold back the progress, and not use light bulbs? Thornberg is not concerned with their pensions, he wants progress.

Bruce asks if there are any collateralized debt obligations against commercial mortgage backed securities. Thornberg claims there are.

There are two different issues at hand: the real world and Wall Street. When everything went bad in 2007, it was because we had problems in both worlds. In the real world, people were spending too much money on homes they couldn’t afford. They weren’t saving and they were creating a huge trade deficit. On Wall Street, investors were playing Russian Roulette with leveraged money. When all the problems blew up, they said “thank you for our millions”, and they walked away. That was the biggest train robbery in the history of the U.S.

We have to do something to control the volatility in Wall Street. We have a problem with side bets and millisecond trading. Millisecond trading causes flash crashes.

On top of that, we have a problem with CMBS. We never had that before, and Thornberg believes that CMBS should go away. One of the other speakers disagrees. CMBS came in during 1995. We lost a lot of life companies and the banks weren’t lending. We didn’t have any debt available to us at that time, and that is when CMBS came out. Throughout the end of the 1990s and through 2003, CMBS was a good thing. This was before the CDOs came into play. Prior to CDOs, investors were actually taking a risk in their investment. Once CDOs came out, nobody had any risk in their investments. Too much debt came in, which created too much value, and it eventually exploded.

We repealed glassed eagle. We let federally insured banks start playing games is mortgage-backed securities. Then another commodities act allowed them to pretend that they had insurance. This allowed them to create as many risky products as they wanted without risk.

The three biggest losses to the American tax payer are not insured banks. The 3 biggest losses are from Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and AIG. Those banks have interest free money. One of the panelists believes that we should allow those banks to generate profit and take losses.

If you look at the size of Fannie and Freddie, they are enormous. They have trillions of dollars of debt. They make the commercial banks look like dwarves. Even a 2% loss on a Fannie or Freddie is equal to wiping out half the commercial system. Thornberg believes that allowing Fannie and Freddie to take a loss would still cause the tax payers to pick up the tab.

A derivative is a side bet in the financial system. For example, if you buy a bond, but you want to insure yourself against the bond’s failure, you can buy a CDS. If the bond fails, you are balanced in another area. The problem is that too many people were doing that, and there were too many cross bets in the system. Doing deals like this allowed people to have a 100% guarantee of profit.

When Lehman failed, it sucked down a huge part of the derivative market. This caused a complete lock down of the financial market, and no one could get a loan.

Another speaker tries to give an example of how derivatives work: Bruce can buy fire insurance on his house. If everyone knows that Bruce loves starting fires, every one else can take insurance against him burning down his own house. Thornberg tries to make a better example: If Thornberg knows that Bruce lives in a dry house made of straw, he can buy insurance against Bruce’s house, and then light Bruce’s house on fire.

Bruce learned about credit default swaps after his daughter got married. When his daughter got married, Bruce got the bill, and then he was sent an insurance deal allowing him to insure the wedding just in case it didn’t happen. He discovered that many people were allowed to be involved in the insurance. This insurance company will allow you to cash a thousand checks for one wedding. This is what Wall Street did, except they purposefully put bad assets into the insurance system, and then bet against it. When the assets failed, they made a lot of money. Some of the commissioned workers were making bad bets with other people’s money, knowing that those people would lose.

The net worth of the audience for I Survived Real Estate 2010 was around $500 million. Many of the people attending the event were interested in bulk buys. Some of them aren’t even sure if bulk buys even happen. Sarah Letts claims they really happen. There is a bid for bulk deals.

There is one apartment in Fannie Mae that is doing bulk sales. In a traditional pool, with properties that didn’t sell in retail execution or auction, properties are usually sold in numbers ranging from 100 to 300. You are not allowed to pick which properties you want from the pool; you must bid on the entire pool. There is a program available for smaller quantities, but that is a mission oriented program. That program partners with cities to identify properties that achieve the goals of their neighborhood stabilization strategy. This program is not offered to private investors very often. Private investors hoping to use this program must have a good relationship with the local government, and is using government resources like redevelopment or NSP money. They should be using some sort of public financing to accomplish the city’s goal.

Peter has mentioned that he does not prefer to sell his inventory to investors. Less than 0.5% of Freddie Mac’s inventory will go through bulk purchases. Freddie Mac gives the first buying chance to neighborhood stabilization and companies using NSP funds. Freddie Mac prefers to give properties to people who will be using public funds. Freddie Mac wants to put owner occupants into it’s properties. 85% of all Freddie Mac properties will sell and close within 90 to 120 days, and they have a high retail recovery rate. Freddie Mac’s goal is to maximize recovery through best execution. Investors will not be given Freddie’s finest properties, but they can buy properties that have failed retail sales and auctions.

Investors buy about 1/3 of Freddie Mac’s properties. Freddie Mac does not offer financing for most of those investor purchases, but Fannie Mae does. Fannie Mae has a program called Home Path. Many investors can qualify for Home Path financing on rehab properties.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

Thank you for being a Gold Sponsor for I Survived Real Estate 2010: Adrenaline Athletics, Benton Investment Group, Community RE-Invest Group, Delmae Properties, Elite Auctions, Entrust California, Everlast Photography, Inland Empire Investors Forum, Keystone CPA, Landwood Title, Las Brisas Escrow, Leivas Financial Services, Mike Cantu, North San Diego Real Estate Investors Association, Northern California Real Estate Investors Association, Personal Real Estate Investor Magazine, Realty 411 Magazine, San Jose Real Estate Investor Association, Rick and LeeAnne Rossiter, San Jose Real Estate Investor Association, Starz Photography, Summit Solutions, Tony Alvarez, Wealth Point, and Westin South Coast Plaza.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 10/1/10

Friday, October 1st, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

9 of the nation’s top 20 most stressed housing markets are in California. The Commerce Department reports construction spending increased 0.4 percent in August. Multiple housing analysts predict evictions to decrease dramatically. President Obama signed the bill to extend higher-loan limits for GSEs.

In The News:

Inman - “Bill targets private transfer fees” (10-1-10)

“Private transfer fee covenants typically allow a third party, such as a developer, to collect a fee equal to 1 percent of a property’s sale price every time its sold. The covenants are often in place for as long as 99 years.”

Wall Street Journal “Which Cities Face Biggest Housing Risks?” (10-1-10)

“Within more than 500 metro areas, the top 20 most stressed include nine in California and six in Florida, where the housing bust has been particularly acute. Among the most populous cities, Miami tops the list, followed by California’s Inland Empire, Los Angeles and San Diego.”

Sacramento Bee – “August construction spending up 0.4 percent” (10-1-10)

“Construction spending edged up 0.4 percent in August following a 1.4 percent drop in July, the Commerce Department reported Friday. While spending on government projects rose 2.5 percent, spending on private construction projects dropped to the lowest level in 12 years.”

New York Times – “Foreclosures seen slowing as document flaws emerge” (10-1-10)

“Evictions are expected to slow sharply, housing analysts said, as state and national law enforcement officials shine a light on questionable foreclosure methods revealed by two of the country’s biggest home lenders in the last two weeks.”

Housing Wire – “Obama signs bill to extend higher-loan limits for GSEs” (10-1-10)

“President Obama signed a bill into law Thursday that extends higher-loan limits for the government sponsored enterprises, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, for one year. The provisions under H.R. 3081 also allocate $20 billion to the Federal Housing Administration General and Special Risk Insurance Funds to continue making loans through the end of 2010.”

Housing Wire – “Foreclosure robo-signers put homebuyers’ tax credit at risk” (10-1-10)

“Homebuyers who were set to close on the purchase of a foreclosed home may not qualify now for the homebuyer tax credit after lenders suspended those sales in 23 states, real estate agents tell HousingWire.”

Housing Wire – “California AG demands JPMorgan Chase halt foreclosures” (10-1-10)

“California Attorney General Jerry Brown is the latest to call for JPMorgan Chase (JPM: 38.81 +1.97%) to halt foreclosures in the state. California is not one of the 23 states Ally Financial, formerly GMAC, and JPMorgan Chase suspended foreclosure sales in. Brown already ordered Ally to suspend foreclosures in his state.”

Housing Wire – “Fannie, Freddie instruct servicers to review foreclosures” (10-1-10)

“Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will provide instructions to servicers Friday to review foreclosure processes, ensuring each is in compliance with state law. Major lenders and servicers are reviewing foreclosure processes following announcements from Ally Financial, formerly GMAC Mortgage, and JPMorgan Chase suspended foreclosure sales and cases in 23 states when faulty documentation was detected. Employees at those two companies were signing affidavits without knowledge of the documentation or a notary present.”

Housing Wire – “Amherst: Principal reductions could ‘re-equify’ 11m in imminent default” (10-1-10)

“The housing market is quite fragile and if government policy doesn’t change 20% of American homeowners — roughly 11 million — are in danger of losing their home, according to Amherst Mortgage Insight.”

Bloomberg - “FDIC Plans to Sell $1.12 Billion in Property Loans Seized in Bank Failures” (10-1-10)

“The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. plans to seek bids for about $1.12 billion of commercial and residential real estate loans as part of the agency’s sale of assets seized from failed banks.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, the NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index showed that sales increased by 6.4 percent in August. Research from Deutsche Bank Securities showed that 26 percent of borrowers owed more than their home was worth.  A survey displayed that realtors were in favor of expanding the $8,000 dollar tax credit. Regulation Z changes came into effect.  Realtors were interested in expanding first-time tax credit to repeat buyers.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor event calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 9/21/10

Tuesday, September 21st, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

Loan originations increased 25% from 2008, according to the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council. The Commerce Department reports new home and apartment construction rose 10.5% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 598,000. Zillow claims interest rates fell again to 4.25%.

In The News:

San Francisco Chronicle - “More mortgage loans – first time since ’05 peak” (9-21-10)

“U.S. mortgage lending rose for the first time in four years in 2009 as a decline in borrowing rates spurred refinancings, according to regulatory data. The number of loans originated climbed 25 percent to 8.95 million from 2008, according to a report released Monday in Washington by the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council. Refinancings rose 66 percent to 5.76 million, while loans to purchase homes dropped 11 percent to 2.78 million. Home-improvement and multifamily-dwelling loans also fell.”

Los Angeles Times – “Home construction jumps 10.5% in August” (9-21-10)

“Construction of new homes and apartments rose 10.5% in August from July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 598,000, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. That’s the highest level since April.”

Housing Wire – “Flattened Ginnie roll rates in 2Q could mean slower prepays: Credit Suisse” (9-21-10)

“The amount of Ginnie Mae-held loans rolling from 60 days to 90 days delinquent slowed in the second quarter, after spiking last year. According to research from Credit Suisse, this could signal slower involuntary prepayments going forward. The Ginnie Mae share of agency fixed-rate issuance dropped to 33% in August, from 36% in July. Its total 30-year gross and net issuances in August were $28.8 billion and $22.7 billion respectively, both down from $31.4 billion and $15.2 billion in July.”

Housing Wire – “CRE investment gearing up, but analysts don’t expect comeback until 2012″ (9-21-10)

“Trouble in the commercial real estate sector is not likely to be resolved until the economy picks up and job creation boosts demand for office, retail, hotel and other commercial properties, according to a Standard & Poor’s commentary released Monday. Even though the market research firm sees a trough in some CRE subsections, overall improvement isn’t expected until at least 2012.”

Housing Wire – “Zillow: 30-year, fixed rates reach another low at 4.25%” (9-21-10)

“Interest rates continue to set all-time lows, as Zillow reported its Mortgage Marketplace showed the average rate for a 30-year, fixed mortgage is currently 4.25%. The real estate information firm said the rate if down seven basis points from 4.32% the week earlier and at the lowest level since the report launched in April 2008.”

Housing Wire – “Home sales level off in August after recent plunge: RE/MAX” (9-20-10)

“August home sales dropped 0.5% after plummeting in July, according to real estate franchise RE/MAX. Home sales are still down 17.9% from August of last year. While some real estate agents reported increased showings, few have translated into closed transactions after the expiration of the homebuyer tax credit at the end of April.”

Bloomberg - “Fed Under Pressure Amid Confusion Over New Easing” (9-21-10)

“Federal Reserve officials are under pressure to avoid creating confusion among investors about any new effort to spur the U.S. recovery. The Federal Open Market Committee, which meets today, triggered a stock selloff with its last statement on Aug. 10 as investors took it as a signal the economy will falter. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index tumbled 7.1 percent during the two weeks following the statement after reaching a three-month high on Aug. 9. The MSCI World Index fell 7.3 percent.”

Orange County Register – “CA. mortgage defaults climb 4th month in row” (9-21-10)

“Notices of default filings in California, the first step in the foreclosure process, climbed for the 4th month in a row in August, up by 16.6% from July and 16% from August, 2009, ForeclosureRadar reports. Homes in the state that went back to lenders were up 20% over July and 0.8% from August last year. Foreclosure sale cancellations were down 11%. The inventory of bank-owned homes went up 3.63% from last month and 8.28% year over year.”

Orange County Register – “Fed keeping cheap money policy” (9-21-10)

“the pace of recovery in output and employment has slowed in recent months. Household spending is increasing gradually, but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software is rising, though less rapidly than earlier in the year, while investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak. Employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Housing starts are at a depressed level. Bank lending has continued to contract, but at a reduced rate in recent months.”

Inman - “Survey: Home-price outlooks sour in Q3″ (9-21-10)

“Ninety percent of real estate agents and brokers expect home prices to either fall or stay the same over the next six months, according to a survey by online real estate marketing site HomeGain. HomeGain conducted the survey from Sept. 7-14, with participation from more than 1,100 real estate agents and brokers and 2,600 homeowners nationwide.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, the federal government claimed it had plans to “tinker” with mortgage interest reporting. First American estimated that California had approximately $30 billion dollars worth of bad home loans. A review of over 24 million credit files showed that people with good credit scores were more likely to ‘strategically default’. Lennar Corp. forecasted a profitable year, despite a bad 3rd quarter.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor event calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 9/20/10

Monday, September 20th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

The NAHB’s monthly survey shows builder confidence remained at the previous month’s low level. Trepp claims that commercial real estate loans were the cause of 5 of the 6 bank failures that occurred over the weekend. FHA insured mortgages accounted for 37% of all originations last year, according to the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council. In a recent survey, nearly 50% of economists claimed that economic growth in 2011 would be below the Fed’s estimated 2.5% annual pace. GMAC is denying the claim that it instituted a foreclosure moratorium in 23 states.

In The News:

Calculated Risk - “Q2 Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth off $12.3 Trillion from Peak” (9-18-10)

“According to the Fed, household net worth is now off $12.3 Trillion from the peak in 2007, but up $4.7 trillion from the trough in Q1 2009.”

Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis - “One Sided Policies” (9-18-10)

“The bailouts did not produce inflation, but the middle class bailed out the banks and got nothing in return but higher taxes, fewer services, and looking ahead, years of stagnation. Moreover, the bondholders (such as China, Japan, and PIMCO) were made whole, while the homeowners are still mired in debt. Adding to the misery, banks lord it over on homeowners with total nonsense about the morality of walking away.”

Wall Street Journal – “Defaults Account for Most of Pared Down Debt” (9-18-10)

“Over the two years ending June 2010, the total value of home-mortgage debt and consumer credit outstanding has fallen by about $610 billion, to $12.6 trillion, according to the Federal Reserve. That’s an annualized decline of about 2.3%, which is pretty impressive given the fact that such debts grew at an annualized rate in excess of 10% over the previous decade.”

CBIA - “Energy Efficiency and Solar Incentives” (9-20-10)

“A number of federal, state and local entities have made available incentives and rebates that promote renewable energy and energy efficiency in new construction. This section is intended to be a one-stop shop for information on state, federal, local and utility incentives and policies that promote such standards.”

NAHB - “Builder Confidence Unchanged in September” (9-20-10)

“Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes held unchanged in September from the previous month’s low level of 13, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today.”

Bloomberg - “Ally’s GMAC Mortgage Halts Home Foreclosures in 23 States” (9-20-10)

“Ally Financial Inc.’s GMAC Mortgage unit told brokers and agents to halt foreclosures on homeowners in 23 states including Florida, Connecticut and New York.”

Business Journal – “GMAC Mortgage denies foreclosure moratorium” (9-20-10)

“GMAC Mortgage said Monday that recent media reports stating that the lender has instituted a moratorium on all residential foreclosures in Minnesota and 22 other states are not true.”

Reuters - “Recession ended in June 2009: NBER” (9-20-10)

“The recession ended in June 2009, making it the longest downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s, the National Bureau of Economic Research said on Monday.”

Housing Wire – “Commercial real estate problems lead to latest bank failures: Trepp” (9-20-10)

“Troubled commercial real estate loans brought down five of the six bank failures reported by the FDIC over the weekend, according Trepp, an analytics firm. There were six bank closings over the weekend, totaling 126 for the year. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. estimated the six closings this week to cost the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) a total of $347.6 million.”

Housing Wire – “SEC calls for more transparency about short-term borrowing” (9-20-10)

“The Securities Exchange Commission voted unanimously over the weekend to propose regulation that would increase transparency between investors and public companies about short-term borrowing arrangements. The SEC wants companies to disclose short-term transactions as they happen instead of the current reporting standard where the info is delivered at the end of the period.”

Housing Wire - “FHA insured 37% of mortgage originations in 2009: Fed survey” (9-20-10)

“Mortgages insured by the Federal Housing Administration accounted for 37% of all originations in 2009, up from 26% in 2008 and 7% in 2007, according to the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council.”

Housing Wire – “Survey finds house prices still stable in August as buyer interest hits ‘brick wall’” (9-20-10)

“Average prices increased 6.3% for damaged REO and 2.5% for refurbished REO. Prices also increased 3.8% for short sales. Non-distressed home prices showed a slight 0.9% decline for the month.”

Housing Wire – “One year of First Look: Fannie Mae sells 29,000 REOs to owner occupants” (9-20-10)

“A year into its First Look program, Fannie Mae vendors have sold 29,000 REO properties to owner-occupants and 5,000 to public entities under the Neighborhood Stabilization Program. Fannie launched First Look in August 2009 to allow both owner occupants and those using NSP grants to submit offers 15 days ahead of investors.”

Housing Wire – “Servicers: Sometimes leasing makes sense” (9-20-10)

“Servicers are beginning to see the benefits of keeping properties occupied with cost-savings such as lower property preservation expenses. Rentals allow the servicer to have more control over when they decide to release the property onto the market for sale because property deterioration that comes with vacancies becomes less of a concern.”

Housing Wire – “MBA economists predict new refinancings to cut in half in 2011″ (9-20-10)

“Expect another year of somewhat depressing economic outlooks, as we’re in a time of great uncertainty in the mortgage industry and the country as a whole, according to economists of the Mortgage Bankers Association. And leading up the list, the MBA expects that the rate of new refinancings, which currently account for the majority of current mortgage originations, will be cut in half by 2012.”

Bloomberg - “Escaping Double Dip to Growth Recession Means No Job Relief” (9-20-10)

“While the economy isn’t so weak that it’s clearly in need of more monetary stimulus, it may not be strong enough to keep unemployment from increasing. Twenty seven of 58 economists polled by Bloomberg News this month see growth in 2011 below the 2.5 percent to 2.8 percent pace Fed policy makers peg as the long-term trend. Twenty eight see the jobless rate rising above last month’s 9.6 percent sometime in the next nine months. That combination would constitute a growth recession.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, Laurence Fink warned that government programs to help homeowners would slow the recovery in the mortgage market. The FHA announced that its reserves would fall below congressional requirements. MDA DataQuick reported that fifteen percent of the homes sold in August were bought by investors. Statistics from Trulia showed that price cuts in Irvine were more likely to occur in luxurious areas rather than popular areas.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor event calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 9/8/10

Wednesday, September 8th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

The California Housing Finance Agency is offering 4 percent mortgages to low and moderate income homebuyers. The MBA’s weekly survey shows mortgage application volume decreased 1.5% this week. According to CoreLogic, 39.6% of the subprime loans are 60 days delinquent.

In The News:

Inman - “California, FHA offer 4% loans” (9-8-10)

“The California Housing Finance Agency is teaming up with the Federal Housing Administration to offer 30-year fixed-rate loans to low- and moderate-income first-time homebuyers at below-market rates. With mortgage rates already at historic lows, eligible borrowers could lock a CalHFA-FHA loan at around 4 percent.”

Mortgage Bankers Association – “Mortgage Purchase Applications Up, Refinance Applications Fall Slightly in Latest MBA Weekly Survey” (9-8-10)

“The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 3, 2010. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1.9 percent compared with the previous week.”

Housing Wire – “40% of subprime mortgages stand delinquent, can prime be next?” (9-8-10)

“CoreLogic reports 2,376,120 American subprime mortgages are still active in the market in June, down 12.5% from a year ago. As of June, 39.6% of the subprime loan market is 60 days delinquent — 35% of that is 90 days delinquent, 13% of that are now in foreclosure and 3.8% of mortgages are real estate owned.”

Housing Wire – “Amherst: modified Ginnie Mae loans boost buyouts” (9-8-10)

“The reissuance of modified Ginnie Mae loans will boost transition rates, buyouts, and subsequently increase prepayment speeds on new, lower-coupon pools. Amherst Mortgage Insight analysts said avoiding Ginnie Mae interest-only mortgages is a good idea, as ‘conventionals are a better bet.’ The firm’s MBS strategy group also advises investors to review Ginnie Mae spec pools”

Housing Wire – “Beige Book: economy increasing at slower rate than prior periods” (9-8-10)

“The Fed said home sales continued to slide, hindering construction activity, as well. Most districts reported very weak or declining home sales during the period that were attributed to the expiration of the homebuyer tax credit. Residential construction decreased in most districts during the period because of weak demand, according to the Fed.”

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor event calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 9/1/10

Wednesday, September 1st, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

The MBA’s weekly survey shows mortgage applications increased 2.7% this week. SB1275, the foreclosure/modification bill, was rejected by congress in a 36-30 vote. Fannie Mae’s new rule regarding appraisal cutting takes effect today. Construction spending decreased 1 percent in July, according to the Commerce Department.

In The News:

Mortgage Bankers Association – “Mortgage Applications Increase as Rates Hit New Low in MBA Weekly Survey” (9-1-10)

“The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 27, 2010.  The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 2.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.  On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 2.3 percent compared with the previous week.”

Reuters - “Loan picture improves but troubles remain: FDIC” (9-1-10)

“The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp revealed some encouraging figures about the bank industry, saying the sector earned $21.6 billion during the quarter largely due to banks putting away less money to cover expected loan losses. During the first quarter, the industry earned $17.8 billion.”

San Francisco Chronicle – “Assembly rejects foreclosure/modification bill” (9-1-10)

“SB1275, which was rejected 36-30 late Monday, would have required lenders to provide homeowners with a fully considered loan modification decision prior to foreclosing. Unlike federal initiatives, it would have given homeowners the right to sue the lender if that process did not occur.”

Housing Wire – “Fannie’s appraisal cutting ban takes effect” (9-1-10)

“Fannie Mae’s new policy to reduce appraisal cutting takes effect today. If a lender is trying to sell the GSE a loan, they are now prohibited from changing the market value of a home on the request form. Fannie Mae said Tuesday if a loan servicer does not properly handle a troubled mortgage loan in a timely manner, it will demand compensation from the servicer for the mortgage.”

Housing Wire – “Fed buys $900 million of Treasury debt” (9-1-10)

“Dealers offered to sell the Fed $25.79 billion in debt. The three slices of debt purchased by the Fed include $131 million maturing Nov. 15, 2012; $345 million maturing Dec. 15, 2012; and $424 million maturing Jan. 31, 2013. At its meeting from earlier this month, the Federal Open Markets Committee directed the New York Fed to maintain the total face value of domestic securities held in the system open market account at about $2 trillion.”

Housing Wire – “DebtX July CRE loan value up to 79.4%” (9-1-10)

“The value of commercial loans priced by The Debt Exchange in July that collateralize commercial mortgage-backed securities rose to 79.4% of the original balance. DebtX said the value is up from 77.4% in June, marking the fourth-straight month of increases, and is higher than the 71.1% for the year-ago July. The values are based on loans priced by DebtX. In July, the company priced 57,801 CRE loans with an aggregate principle balance of $679.5 billion that collateralize 623 CMBS trusts.”

Bloomberg - “Construction Spending in U.S. Declined Twice as Much as Forecast in July” (9-1-10)

“The 1 percent drop brought spending to $805.2 billion, the lowest level in a decade, after a revised 0.8 percent drop in June that wiped out a previously estimated gain, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. Spending on federal government projects fell by the most in a year.”

Bloomberg - “Real Estate Premium Near Record to U.S. Bonds Signals Time to Buy Property” (9-1-10)

“Capitalization rates, a measure of real estate yields, averaged 7.22 percent in the second quarter, based on an index calculated by the National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries. That was 429 basis points, or 4.29 percentage points, higher than the yield on 10-year government bonds as of June 30, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It’s about 475 basis points higher than Treasury yields as of yesterday.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, the NAR reported that pending home sales increased 3.2 percent in one month. The average price of homes bought with mortgages funded by Freddie Mac increased 1.7% during the 2nd quarter of 2009. A wildfire north of Los Angeles threatened more than 12,000 homes and forced the evacuation of more than 4,300 people.

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189-TNG Radio – Christopher Thornberg 8-28-10

Friday, August 27th, 2010

christopher-thornberg

Christopher Thornberg

Founder and Principle of Beacon Economics


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September 17th, 2010, The Norris Group returns with its award winning event I Survived Real Estate 2010. The Norris Group has assembled an incredible line up of industry experts to discuss the state of REO from the inside. Topics will include regulatory intervention and aftermath, bulk buying, myths and facts, and opportunities emerging for real estate professionals. 100 percent of the proceeds support the Orange County affiliate of Susan G. Komen for the Cure. This event would not be possible without generous help from the following platinum partners: Foreclosure Radar and Sean O’Toole, the San Diego Creative Real Estate Investors Association and Bill Tan, Investors Workshops and Shawn Watkins and Angel Bronsgeest, Invest Club for Women and Iris Veneracion and Bobby Alexander, Claudia Buys Houses, The Business Press, Frye Wiles, MVT Productions, and White House Catering.

This week Bruce is joined by Christopher Thornberg. Christopher is the founding principle of Beacon Economics, and is widely considered to be one of California’s leading economic forecasters. He is an expert in economic forecasting, regional development, real estate dynamics and labor markets. He was one of the earliest and most adamant predictors of the housing crash and the recession that followed. In 2008, he was appointed chief economist for the California State Controller as well as the Controller’s Council of Economic Advisors. He serves on the advisor board of Paulson & Company Inc., one of Wall Street’s most successful hedge funds. Dr. Thornberg holds a PhD in business economics from the Anderson school of UCLA, and a BS in business administration from the state university of New York at Buffalo.

Public sentiment tends to wander between optimistic and pessimistic. No one wants to believe that this recovery might be too slow. Instead, people either hope for a rapid recovery, or they panic over a double dip. Earlier in the year, people were far too optimistic about a rapid recovery, and now they are in a state of unwarranted pessimism. Thornberg does not believe that either of those beliefs are true. He believes that slow growth is most likely going to occur.

Expectations can have an economic impact. Forecasters tend to think that the stock market is a leading indicator of the economy. Paul Samuelson once said “The stock market has predicted 9 out of the last 5 recessions.” We must remember that when we see market swings, it has a material impact on the economy. When the market dumps 15 percent, you are literally talking about a couple trillion dollars in wealth disappearing from the U.S. economy. That does have an influence on spending, particularly at the top end of the income scale. From that perspective, unwarranted worries can create a self fulfilling prophecy and slow the economy.

Over the last 20 years, we have seen unprecedented volatility in the equity markets. We would help ourselves by putting in some rules to dampen that volatility. Thornberg describes the problem as “the tail controlling the economic dog”.

GDP growth in the 90s was caused by stocks. In 2000, it was from real estate equity withdrawal and profits. Currently, our limited growth seems to come from stimulus money. Thornberg does not believe there will be any sort of big driver, and that is part of the reason we will have a slow recovery.

In the mid 70s, there was a consumer let down with the oil shock. Consumers responded to the loss of jobs, high energy prices, and the overall pessimism by cutting back on spending, and that caused a down turn. At the back end of that down turn, consumers who were under-spending started to ramp up their income. They then bought the car they would have bought during the down turn plus another one. That caused a huge surge in consumer spending growth.

Similarly, in the 2001 down turn, we saw a cycle in business spending. Business spending was very high, and then it collapsed. When business spending came back in 2002, we pulled out of the down turn and we got back to normal growth in 2003.

This time, there is no single great source that will cause us to bounce back. The economy was vastly overheated in 2008, and the pain of the down turn was severe, because the pull back occurred in multiple markets at one time. The government got massively involved in both monetary and fiscal policy. In their attempt to stabilize things, they prevented our imbalances from returning to a steady state.

Consumer spending should represent about 80 percent of income, and the other 20 percent should go to savings, taxes and a couple other things. In the midst of the asset bubble, we went from 80 to 84 percent. That extra 4 percent represents approximately half a trillion dollars in excess spending. Savings rates have popped back up in the midst of the crisis, which is good, but the pain of that decline in consumer spending was profound on the economy. As a result, part of the stimulus package was a huge cut in taxes. Right now, Americans are the lowest tax rate in 65 years. This has steadied consumer spending at 82 percent of income. The government is running a deficit of $1.4 trillion per year. At some point, the government will have to raise taxes. When they raise taxes, consumers are going to have to cut back on spending, and that will slow the economy.

We have a lot of deleveraging going on. 23 percent of Riverside is not making a house payment. Because so many people aren’t making their house payments, Bruce believes that people will have plenty of money to spend. Thornberg disagrees, because he does not feel that the money saved from not paying mortgages will amount to that much. Mortgage payments in the U.S. amount to 15 percent of income. Thornberg believes the non-payment of mortgages only adds up to .5 percent of personal income. That is a much smaller number than what happens to personal income as a result of the rise and fall of the unemployment rate.

Bruce explains that in California, a house payment typically represents 40% of someone’s gross. When they don’t make mortgage payments, that saves money, and that fuels GDP. Thornberg understands this, but 1/3 of homeowners in California homeowners own their house free and clear. Of the 2/3rds that are left, the majority are still making their payments. You only have 10 percent of the people in the state that aren’t making their payments. Thornberg does believe that this will make a small difference in the economy, but it is not as significant as people make it out to be.

Bruce asks, “What does seeing a 2.6 10-year T-build tell you?” Thornberg laughs and exclaims that the t-builds are in a bubble. You got to call it as you see it. Sometimes that works and sometimes it doesn’t. A few years ago, Thornberg claimed the housing market was going to crash, and he was right. One of the worst forecasts Thornberg ever made happened 3 months ago when he claimed that interest rates would never go lower. Thornberg has seen some crazy things happen lately. He never could have forecasted this. He believes these things have been driven by worries about sovereign debt in Europe, and a potential for a double dip. This is why Bruce asked his question about Thornberg’s expectations for the t-build, because people’s fears have skewed a lot of categories.

The raw ratio of prices to income will show you that we have not seen a level of retraction that brings us back to the levels we were at in 2000. Prices are still high in comparison to income, but once you adjust for interest rates, affordability levels have never been this great. We have never seen such an affordable housing market when considering current interest rates. Thornberg does not believe that the current interest rates will be maintained. They are going to rise, but he wonders when they will rise and how fast they will rise. If we are on the path to recovery, we could have problems if the credit bubble pops rapidly. If interest rates increase 4.5% to 6.5% in 6 months, then it will severely damage the housing market.

Fannie Mae is planning to hire 1,000 REO agents in Southern California. This tells Bruce that Fannie intends to release inventory; perhaps as soon as the 4th quarter. FHA has 73,000 REOs and 555,000 people that are 90 days late. There are a lot of properties that the bank has not released, but we also have to be concerned about the properties that the banks are not foreclosing on yet. There are probably 4 to 5 million homeowners that are behind on their payments.

Because affordability is so good right now, there will probably be some demand for the shadow inventory. One thing that distinguishes California from states live Nevada, Florida and Arizona is the fact that we did not over build. Nevada and Florida have years of home supply.

Rental vacancies typically stay high after a recession, but vacancies are actually starting to drop quite quickly, especially in California. Thornberg does not believe there will be enough inventory in California, so when the shadow inventory gets released, it will probably be easily picked up. Thornberg believes we will have a stronger housing market over the next couple years because of the inventory levels in relation to the population. It surprised Bruce to hear Thornberg speak so positively about the housing market.

Bruce and Thornberg do not believe we have pent-up demand, but Thornberg does believe that we have a lack of overall supply. When you look at permits over the past 20 years, the numbers show that we have not built enough housing relative to the population growth since 1995. Even in the midst of the bubble, Thornberg believes we were only building an amount that was appropriate for our population growth.

The builders do not have many vacant unsold homes right now, but their competition, which is an REO, is going to be much to competitive. This competition will force them to build smaller houses. Going forward, Bruce believes that vacant homes are going to increase a tremendous amount. Thornberg does not believe prices will come back a lot.

The kind of building going on right now is on the basis of already finished lots. The inventory of finished but unused lots is disappearing rapidly. In the peak of the housing bubble, local economies ramped up fees. Given what people were willing to pay, there were enormous profits to be made in the sale of a new home. Now that the bubble is gone, cities need to reduce their fees, but they probably won’t. Right now, local governments have a lot of pressure placed on them because of the down turn in revenues. Thornberg believes we will have crowded housing, because many people will not be able to purchase new property due to the excessive fees.

In a down turn, people tend to start living together rather than moving out. This is actually starting to change, which is part of the reason why apartment vacancies are going down. We are not in a strong recovery, but it has been a year since the recession ended. Things have stabilized, and fears are beginning to lift.

Overall, jobs are down right now, but that is mainly due to losses in the public sector. Construction jobs actually bounced a decent amount from June to July. Thornberg does not believe the construction industry will come roaring back to what is was like 5 or 6 years ago, but we are seeing more stability in that sector.

Here are the pros and cons of our current situation: On the con side, we still have problems in the housing market. Many people are not making payments and many are underwater. California has some of the worst unemployment rates, which means we have more to recover from. On the pro side, prior to this down turn, this state was driven by internal demand. This means that our demand was coming from consumers with excessive amounts of false housing equity. At the same time, our external sources of growth were getting hammered. The dollar was over-valued and housing was too expensive, which made it hard to run a business here. Those internal sources of demand will not come back. On the other hand, with a weaker U.S. dollar and cheaper housing, other things will begin to improve. Despite our high unemployment rate, people are beginning to migrate back to California.

The percentage of homeownership is probably headed down. Thornberg does not believe that this is a real concern. He does not believe there are any particular benefits for owning vs renting.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

Thank you for being a Gold Sponsor for I Survived Real Estate 2010: Adrenaline Athletics, Benton Investment Group, Community RE-Invest Group, Delmae Properties, Elite Auctions, Entrust California, Everlast Photography, Inland Empire Investors Forum, Keystone CPA, Landwood Title, Las Brisas Escrow, Leivas Financial Services, Mike Cantu, North San Diego Real Estate Investors Association, Northern California Real Estate Investors Association, Personal Real Estate Investor Magazine, Realty 411 Magazine, San Jose Real Estate Investor Association, Rick and LeeAnne Rossiter, San Jose Real Estate Investor Association, Starz Photography, Summit Solutions, Tony Alvarez, Wealth Point, and Westin South Coast Plaza.

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186-TNG Radio – Daniel Phelan 8-7-10

Friday, August 6th, 2010

Daniel-Phelan

Daniel Phelan

CEO of Pacific Southwest Realty Services


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September 17th, 2010, The Norris Group returns with its award winning event I Survived Real Estate 2010. The Norris Group has assembled an incredible line up of industry experts to discuss the state of REO from the inside. Topics will include regulatory intervention and aftermath, bulk buying, myths and facts, and opportunities emerging for real estate professionals. 100 percent of the proceeds support the Orange County affiliate of Susan G. Komen for the Cure. This event would not be possible without generous help from the following platinum partners: Foreclosure Radar and Sean O’Toole, the San Diego Creative Real Estate InvestorsAssociation and Bill Tan, Investors Workshops and Shawn Watkins and Angel Bronsgeest, Invest Club for Women and Iris Veneracion and Bobby Alexander, San Jose Real Estate Investors Association and Geraldine Barry, Claudia Buys Houses, Frye Wiles, MVT Productions, and White House Catering.

This week Bruce is joined by Daniel Phelan. Daniel is the CEO of Pacific Southwest Realty Services. He is responsible for this company’s mortgage operations. Pacific Southwest Realty Services is an investment firm focused on commercial real estate. It represents and advises both real estate clients and institutional investors in debt. It is involved in equity placement, strategic planning, property sales and loan administration.

In 2006, Daniel’s company was heavily involved in the financing of commercial real estate. His company financed $1.5 billion of commercial real estate per year for every year of the boom.

Daniel does not think that investors perceived a high level of risk in the prices they were paying for real estate during the boom. Prices had been steadily increasing since July 1993. Commercial real estate had a continuous growth pattern all the way to 2007. If you had only been in the business for 15 years and had only seen positive growth, then you probably wouldn’t feel at risk.

The lending side was probably looking at the boom similarly. There was a lot of competition, because Wall Street entered the market. There was a tremendous amount of debt capital in the market, and it was extremely competitively priced. These prices made real estate investments that much more enticing. People saw the need to get their capital invested in some form, and commercial real estate was perceived to be a safe investment.

In 2006 to 2007, down payments were reduced because of the confidence of the market. Borrowers were getting into commercial properties with only 20 percent. Historically, you could probably get most properties financed with 25 to 30 percent down. However, 75 percent is considered to be a more appropriate and safe number.

There are two tiers of debt. Most banks is recourse, but most non-bank debt is nonrecourse. 99.9 percent of the debt for life insurance companies and pension funds is nonrecourse. Because Daniel’s company works with these kinds of firms, they could only look to the real estate for satisfaction of a debt following a default. From 2005 to 2007, many banks backed off their recourse loans and went nonrecourse.

The source of capital during the boom came from portfolio lenders, such as life insurance companies and banks, and nonportfolio lenders, such as securitized lenders and Wall Street lenders. If you were trying to accomplish high loan to value with lower rates, then you probably got involved in the commercial mortgage backed securities market. You would expect a rate of 110-120 over treasuries. Those loans would be pooled into $2 billion pools, and then sold on Wall Street.

Mortgages made near 2006 are not doing well right now. Underwriting standards were very loose at that time. The default rates for those issuances are above 5 percent, and sometimes above 10 percent.

Mezzanine financing can be compared to second trust deed. It is a debt placed behind a first trust deed. It is used for taking cash out of a property, cover tenant improvements, or buy out existing partners to recapitalize the partnership.

During the boom, mezzanine debt could be taken at a 7 to 8 percent rate on the low end. The mezzanine debt today is going for above 10 percent. It is not available for the same loan to value rate. In 2006, you could get 90 percent loan to value. Today, you would be lucky if you got mezzanine debt for 65 percent loan to value. You may not be able to get it at all.

If you intend to occupy a commercial building, you could get 90 percent financing from a bank loan. This is only available to owner occupants, and it is only available in a purchase situation, not a refinance situation. If you were buying a multi-tenant investment property, you probably would get financing from life insurance companies. Banks are beginning to come back to the commercial investment market. With these deals, banks are looking for a full relationship with bank accounts and operating accounts. During the second quarter, the commercial mortgage backed securities market starting coming back. However, this market is not coming back quickly. Daniel’s company funded its first two cmbs loans since 2007.

Daniel’s company always looks at the operating history and income of a property, and then he makes a reasonable expectation of how well that property will operate over time. The projection for those properties is typically not very good. In 2006-07 we had not been hit by unemployment. Most tenants were performing well, and occupancy rates were above 90 percent.

Many commercial loans are coming due in 2012. These loans were underwritten in 2002. These loans are going to cause a big problem. In 2002, underwriting standards were not that “out of wack”. Prices have come down a lot, but they are still greater than what they were in 2002. Daniel think there is plenty of capital to refinance the debt on those properties, and in many cases, lenders are willing to roll over those loans. The bigger problem comes in during 2014 to 2017. During these years, you will have loans on properties with significantly diminished values. At that time, you may start having tenant default issues.

Construction on commercial real estate is not going to perform well. Daniel does not know of any bank that did a commercial construction loan in 2008-09. However, there are some banks now that are willing to loan on a multifamily property now.

Residential real estate is beginning to experience a large number of strategic defaults. Commercial loans are also beginning to default, but not as badly. Commercial property owners can make their payments so long as 70 percent of the tenants are making their payments. Commercial loans are made based on the ability of a property to make income. The commercial property owners that will experience difficulty are the ones that have let go of workers. They may have a large amount of space, but are only using a small portion of it. When their leases come due, these owners will probably move out to a smaller space. This will hurt larger commercial properties.

Most cap rates during the peak were around 6 to 7 percent. For multifamily properties and apartments, cap rates were around 5 percent. As of last year, most cap rates have moved up to 8 to 9 percent. The reason why we have not experienced a dramatic change in cap rates is because of Fannie and Freddy’s involvement.

Daniel believes we are going to see more problems in 2010 rather than improvement. Sales are going to start again, but they are going to have to pay 35 percent down rather than 25 percent.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

Thank you for being a Gold Sponsor for I Survived Real Estate 2010: Delmae Properties, Elite Auctions, Entrust California, Inland Empire Investors Forum, Keystone CPA, Las Brisas Escrow, Leivas Financial Services, Mike Cantu, North San Diego Real Estate Investors Association, Northern California Real Estate Investors Association, Personal Real Estate Investor Magazine, Realty 411 Magazine, San Jose Real Estate Investor Association, Tony Alvarez, and Westin South Coast Plaza.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 8/2/10

Monday, August 2nd, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

Alan Greenspan expressed concern that a decrease in home prices might cause the U.S. to slip back into recession. The Census Bureau estimates the homeownership rate will fall to 62% in 2012. Moody’s reports strategic delinquencies are falling on jumbo mortgages. Construction spending remained relatively flat with just a 0.1 percent increase last month.

In The News:

Bloomberg - “Greenspan Says Drop in Home Prices Might Bring Back Recession” (8-1-10)

“Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the slowing economic recovery in the U.S. feels like a ‘quasi-recession’ and the economy might contract again if home prices decline.”

Los Angeles Times – “Builders’ pricing strategies are aimed at creating sales urgency” (8-1-10)

“The first bump occurs when ground is broken for the project. Then builders up the ante when the streets go in, and again when the model homes begin to take shape. Prices go up for a fourth time with the big opening splash.”

USA Today – “Homeownership rate continues to slide” (8-2-10)

“Fresh projections say the rate could plummet to about 62% as early as 2012 and almost certainly by the end of the decade. Homeownership rates haven’t been that low since they hit 61.9% in 1960. The share of households that own their homes has been sliding since the housing bubble burst in 2006. The rate fell again in the second quarter of this year to 66.9% — the lowest since 1999 — from a peak of 69.4% in 2004, the Census Bureau says.”

Mercury News – “June construction activity rises 0.1 percent” (8-2-10)

“Construction spending rose 0.1 percent in June, the Commerce Department reported Monday. While that was better than the decline economists had forecast, the government sharply revised down its estimate of activity in May to show a drop of 1 percent rather than the 0.2 percent dip initially reported.”

Housing Wire – “Strategic Defaults Falling on Jumbo Mortgages, Relative to Smaller Loans: Moody’s” (8-2-10)

“According to a weekly credit report from Moody’s Investors Service, jumbo mortgage delinquencies, in this case delinquencies on mortgages over $1m, are almost equal to mortgage delinquencies for smaller mortgages. The agency monitors the risk of default across mortgages that are bundled into bonds and sold as residential mortgage-backed securitizations.”

Housing Wire – “2010 CMBS Modifications Outnumber the Last 2 Years Combined: Trepp” (8-2-10)

“As delinquency increases begin to slow, modifications on CMBS loans are accelerating, according to the analytics firm, Trepp. Further, halfway through 2010, modifications have already passed the amount done in 2008 and 2009 combined. The rate of modifications is set to triple the rate in 2009. In the first seven months of 2010, there have been modifications done on $12.1bn worth of CMBS loans, a 37% increase from the $8.8bn done in all of 2009 and more than four times the $354m modified in 2008, according to Trepp.”

Housing Wire – “Government Refi Wave Could Cost GSE Bondholders $350bn: KBW” (8-2-10)

“Recent record-low mortgage rates have sparked fears amongst investors that a government-driven refinancing wave would boost prepayment speeds back to 2003 levels. According to KBW, there is a cost to such a policy shift, contrary to what supporters of action have said. The agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market trades a premium of almost seven basis points. If all borrowers refinanced into the current mortgage rates, roughly $350bn would transfer from bondholders to borrowers, equaling $75bn annually.”

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 7/26/10

Monday, July 26th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

The Commerce Department new home sales increased 23.6% last month. Statistics from LPS show show 9.39% of all loans were delinquent by more than 30 days. The national vacancy rate on multifamily properties  decreased to 7.8%, according to BarCap. A survey from Campbell Survey suggests that home prices will continue to fall.

In The News:

CNN - “New home sales rebound 24%” (7-26-10)

“New home sales increased 23.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 330,000 last month, up from an downwardly revised 267,000 in May, the Commerce Department reported Monday. Sales year-over-year fell 16.7%.”

CBIA - “Housing Starts Rise Again in June, CBIA Announces” (7-26-10)

“According to statistics compiled by the Construction Industry Research Board (CIRB), permits were pulled for 4,238 total housing units in June, up 19 percent from the same month a year ago and up 34 percent from May. It was the largest monthly total since December of 2008 when 4,658 total permits had been issued. Permits for single-family homes totaled 2,628, down 9 percent from June 2009 but up 33 percent from the previous month, while multifamily permits totaled 1,610, up 140 percent from a year ago and up 35 percent from May.”

Wall Street Journal – “Mortgage Delinquencies Fall in June, Still Near Record Highs” (7-26-10)

“Some 9.39% of all loans were 30 days or more past due, down from 9.54% in May, according to LPS Applied Analytics, which tracks loan data. An additional 3.69% of mortgages were in some stage of foreclosure, down from 3.72% in May and the record high of 3.81% in March.”

Housing Wire – “Multifamily Rental Demand Catching up to Supply: BarCap” (7-26-10)

“The multifamily net absorption rate, or the amount of space leased after deducting the amount of supply, increased by more than 46,000 units in Q210, the highest increase in 10 years, according to BarCap. The national vacancy rate on multifamily properties also decreased to 7.8% from 8% over the same time”

Housing Wire – “As FHA Mortgage Volume Increases From 2009, Serious Delinquencies Spike” (7-26-10)

“The rate of seriously delinquent mortgages backed by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) declined slightly from May to June, but the gross number of mortgages that are either 90 or more days past due or in foreclosure increased 35% year-over-year. According to the FHA June single-family operations report, the total volume of mortgage in-force increased more than 24% to 6.4m in June compared to the same month one year ago. The total value of unpaid FHA mortgages was $865.5bn in June, up 30.3% from $663.8bn one year ago and up 3.3% from $837.8bn in May.”

Housing Wire - “The New Math Surrounding HAMP Doesn’t Add Up” (7-26-10)

“There is no other way to say this: we’re being lied to. Willfully. Anyone who managed to read headlines around the U.S. Treasury’s latest HAMP report card last week would likely have thought the program a huge success –- with more than one media outlet trumpeting impossibly miniscule re-default rates among permanent HAMP mods. At HW, we chose not to run with the HAMP redefault numbers except to note that Treasury officials had added them into the latest report card. And this choice was made with purpose: we knew these numbers were fake. Nobody gets a 1.7% redefault rate 6 months after modification –- not even Uncle Sam”

Housing Wire – “Campbell Survey: Housing Prices Drop in June and Will Continue to Fall” (7-26-10)

“A 32% plummet in new home sales in May correlates with a drop in overall homebuyer activity, although updated data out today from the Census Bureau shows a nearly 24% surge in new home sales in June.”

Housing Wire – “Monday Morning Cup of Coffee” (7-26-10)

“The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) took receivership of seven banks last week with a combined cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) of $468.2m. It brings the total closings in 2010 to 103 banks. At this time last year, there were 64 closings. Bank failures in 2009 took until October to pass 100.”

Housing Wire – “MIT-Harvard Study: Foreclosure drops house value by 27%” (7-26-10)

“A foreclosure reduces the value of a house by 27%, on average, and accounts for a much steeper price drop than other forced sales, according to a study by an Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) economist and two Harvard University researchers. In comparison, when a house is sold after the death of an owner, the price drops 5% to 7% on average. When an owner declares bankruptcy, the value sinks 3%, according to the report.”

Bloomberg - “U.S. Small-Business Aid May Create $300 Billion of `Junk’ Loans” (7-26-10)

“The U.S. Senate may vote this week on a bill to funnel $30 billion of capital to community banks, whose business customers typically are small firms. Banks could leverage the sum to make $300 billion in loans that create jobs, according to a Senate summary. That could more than double the commercial and industrial loans at eligible banks as of the first quarter, according to data compiled by KBW Inc.”

Orange County Register – “Owners rush to sell O.C. homes” (7-26-10)

“Orange County housing inventory grew by the largest amount so far this year, adding an additional 418 homes in the past two weeks and now totals 11,235. The market has not breached the 11,000 mark since the beginning of April 2009. Last year at this time the inventory was at 8,895 homes, 2,340 fewer than today. The inventory has not stopped growing at all this year as more and more pent up homeowners have opted to place their homes on the market at unrealistic levels.”

Orange County Register – “O.C. distressed homes up 35%” (7-26-10)

“Last year at this time, there were 2,616 distressed homes on the market, 841 fewer than today. The number of foreclosures within the active listing inventory increased by 35 homes in the past two weeks from 578 to 613 … Short sales, where a homeowner attempts to sell a home for less than the total outstanding loans against a home, requiring lender approval, increased by 115 homes over the past two weeks and now total 2,844.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, the quarterly homeownership rate was 67.3 percent. The average rate on 30-year fixed mortgages was 5.2 percent. The state Senate approved a budget package that was believed to be capable of closing the state’s $26.3 billion deficit.

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