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California Real Estate Headline Roundup

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 2/24/11

Thursday, February 24th, 2011

Today’s News Synopsis:

The FHFA claims 30-year interest rates averaged 4.85% in January, and home prices fell 4% year over year. House Republicans intend to end anti-foreclosure programs put in place by President Obama. The Commerce Department said new home sales decreased 13 percent in Janurary.

In The News:

Housing Wire - “Affordable housing ratings stabilized in 2010: S&P” (2-24-11)

“Ratings on unenhanced and unsubsidized multifamily affordable housing projects stabilized in 2010 thanks to the absence of bond insurance policies that previously had a negative impact on ratings, Standard & Poor’s said Thursday.”

Housing Wire“Fed finalizes rule on jumbo loan escrow requirements” (2-24-11)

“The Federal Reserve finalized a rule that will raise the threshold requirements for when a first-lien jumbo mortgage is required to establish an escrow account to hold property taxes and insurance.”

Housing Wire“FHFA and Freddie: Mortgage rates hovering near 5%” (2-24-11)

“The average interest rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage increased 24 basis points, hitting 4.85% in January, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency.”

Bloomberg - “House Republicans Move to End Foreclosure Aid Programs” (2-24-11)

“Republicans plan to move forward with bills that would end anti-foreclosure programs put in place by President Barack Obama’s administration, saying they are doing more harm than good.”

Bloomberg - “U.S. Commercial Mortgage Defaults Decline as Prices Recover” (2-24-11)

“The default rate on loans for office buildings, malls and other commercial properties dropped to 4.28 percent of loan balances from 4.36 percent in the third quarter”

Bloomberg - “Home Prices in U.S. Decline 4% on Foreclosures, FHFA Says” (2-24-11)

“U.S. home prices fell 4 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier as record foreclosures sapped the confidence of homebuyers, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency.”

Bloomberg - “Sales of New U.S. Homes Fell More Than Forecast in January” (2-24-11)

“Sales declined 13 percent to a 284,000 annual pace, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected a decrease to a 305,000 rate. Demand dropped 37 percent in the West”

Orange County Register“America’s most-searched housing markets” (2-24-11)

“Orange County landed at No. 17. Other noteworthy California markets high on Realtor.com’s survey of 250 markets were: Los Angeles (at No. 3); Riverside-San Bernadino (11th); San Diego (15th); and Oakland (29th.)”

Looking Back:

One year ago, the MBA reported that mortgage loan application volume decreased 8.5 percent from the previous week. Purchases of new single-family homes decreased by 11.2 percent in one month. Informa Research Services announced the average interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate jumbos dropped to 5.79%. Freddie Mac’s net losses for 2009 ended at $25.7bn.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 2/22/11

Tuesday, February 22nd, 2011

Today’s News Synopsis:

A Survey from Harris Interactive shows 70% of Americans aspire to homeownership. According to S&P/Case-Shiller, national home prices fell 4.1% in the 4th quarter of 2010. FNC Residential seems to confirm this saying home prices fell 2.2% in December. CB Richard Ellis Group expects office rents to increase this year.

In The News:

Ventura County Star“Apartments can be good investment as more people rent” (2-19-11)

“While construction in Ventura County has taken a significant hit since the downturn began, shedding about 7,700 jobs from June 2007 to June 2010, the pain has been uneven. Single-family homes have been hit hard and condominiums even harder, said Dawn Dyer, president of Dyer Sheehan Group, a Ventura real estate consulting firm.”

Los Angeles Times“Homeownership loses its luster” (2-19-11)

“Two-thirds of Americans still see a home purchase as a safe investment, but that’s down from 83% in 2003, according to a study by Fannie Mae. Homeownership has fallen to 66.5% of the adult population, down from 69.2% in 2004. A Harris Interactive polls says 70% of Americans aspire to homeownership, down from 77% a year ago.”

San Francisco Chronicle“Consumer Confidence Index hits 3-year high” (2-22-11)

“The Conference Board says its Consumer Confidence Index climbed to 70.4 this month, up from a revised 64.8 in January, hitting its highest level since February 2008. It was the index’s fifth consecutive monthly increase. The figure topped economists’ expectations of a reading of 65, according to FactSet.”

CNN - “Home prices near 2009 lows — and may fall more” (2-22-11)

“National home prices fell 4.1% during the last three months of 2010, compared with 12 months earlier, according to the latest report from the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, a closely watched indicator of market trends. They were down 1.9% compared with three months earlier.”

Housing Wire“Fitch Solutions subprime credit default swap prices highest since October 2008″ (2-22-11)

“Analysts said the firm’s index for subprime swaps rose 5.2% in January on top of increases the prior two months, including a 7.2% gain in December. Fitch said the 2004 and 2007 vintages performed well last month with returns of more than 7% although constant default rates average 20% higher for the swaps from 2007.”

Housing Wire“Moody’s finds commercial real estate eluding recovery” (2-22-11)

“After three consecutive months of increases, commercial real estate prices fell 0.9% in December, according to Moody’s Investors Service.”

Housing Wire - “Foreclosure sales weigh down home prices in 23 markets” (2-22-11)

“Home prices in 23 U.S. metropolitan areas fell 2.2% in December, the largest one-month drop for fiscal 2010, and a sign that foreclosed properties continue to weigh down home values across the nation, the FNC Residential Price Index revealed Monday.”

Bloomberg“U.S. Office Rent Growth to Be ‘Modest’ in 2011, CB Richard Says” (2-22-11)

“U.S. office rents will increase for the first time in three years in 2011, with growth ‘modest and limited to key markets’ before a recovery accelerates in 2012, according to CB Richard Ellis Group Inc.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, Moody’s reported that commercial property prices increased by 4.1 percent in December. A survey showed that 87 percent of homebuilders expected to lose money due to the new FHA guidelines. Short sales accounted for 15.9% of home purchases in January 2010. Janet Yellen predicted the U.S. economy would perform below potential throughout this year and the next.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 2/7/11

Monday, February 7th, 2011

Today’s News Synopsis:

The MBA reports $110 billion in commercial and multifamily mortgages were originated in 2010. 36,500 mortgages were modified through government and proprietary programs in December, according to Fitch Ratings. Altos Research announced plans to release a new, forward valuation model for real estate. S&P claims 80% of the loan modifications that took place over the last 3 years defaulted again within 2 years.

In The News:

Mortgage Bankers Association“MBA: Strong Fourth Quarter Drives 2010 Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations 36 Percent Above 2009 Levels” (2-7-11)

“Mortgage bankers originated $110 billion of commercial and multifamily mortgages during 2010 – an increase of 36 percent from 2009″

Mortgage Bankers Association“MBA: Only 11 Percent of $1.4 trillion of Non-Bank Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Debt Set to Mature in 2011″ (2-7-11)

“Of the $1.4 trillion balance of outstanding commercial/multifamily mortgages held by non-bank investors, only 11 percent of the total ($155 billion) will mature in 2011, and 9 percent ($125 billion) in 2012″

Press Enterprise“Surveys project Gen Y’s impact on for-sale and rental housing” (2-7-11)

“Gen Y forms a large consumer group–even a bit larger than the Baby Boomers, according to a report published by Meyers LLC, an Orange County based real estate research company. Meyers cites a report by the Marcus and Millichap commercial brokerage that 20-to-34 year olds constituted a 65 percent share of job gains in 2010.”

Washington Post“Republicans call for swift action to weaken Fannie and Freddie” (2-7-11)

“Republicans unveiled a four-point outline of how they want to overhaul the nation’s troubled mortgage system, including shrinking the number of mortgages owned by the troubled companies.”

Housing Wire - “Mortgage modifications drop 57% from 2009 peak: Fitch” (2-7-11)

“Servicers modified 36,500 mortgages through government and proprietary programs in December 2010, down 57% from the peak of 86,500 in April 2009, according to Fitch Ratings.”

Housing Wire“Altos unveils forward-looking valuation model” (2-7-11)

“The AltosEvaluate forward valuation modeling forecasts changes in a property’s sale price three, six, or 12 months into the future based on the strength or weakness of any local real estate market.”

Housing Wire - “BarCap reveals a new mess in mortgage servicing: Remittance reports” (2-7-11)

“For modified loans, remittance reports are not specifying the exact amount of forgiveness, forbearance and the recapitalization of principal. But they are added to the cash flows, confusing investors who can only see a hole of information between the beginning and ending loan balance.”

Housing Wire“Fannie Mae multifamily funding drops 14% in 2010″ (2-7-11)

“Fannie Mae financing for multifamily properties in 2010 dropped 14% compared to 2009, with substantial decreases in funding to manufactured housing communities and senior housing.”

Housing Wire“S&P: Loan mods fail to keep distressed borrowers afloat” (2-7-11)

“The New York-based rating agency said 80% of the loans cured by a modification in the time period stretching from 2007 to 2010 defaulted again within 24 months.”

Housing Wire“FDIC will base insurance charges to banks on risk, not deposits” (2-7-11)

“Banks that take more risk with their investments will be forced to pay more in insurance costs to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., according to rules finalized on Monday.”

Bloomberg - “REITs Seek to Lure Pension-Fund Money From Private Equity” (2-7-11)

“The National Association of REITs found that a portfolio 30 percent invested in commercial property shares delivered a higher return relative to one more heavily tilted toward private-equity funds, based on a study to be published today on the group’s website.”

Housing Wire - “U.S. Homeowners in Foreclosure Process Were 507 Days Late Paying” (2-7-11)

“U.S. homeowners in the foreclosure process were an average of 507 days late on payments at the end of last year as lenders handled a record rate of mortgage delinquencies, Lender Processing Services Inc. said today.”

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 2/4/11

Friday, February 4th, 2011

Resources:

Yahoo! and Zillow go live with largest online real estate network

Failure to Raise U.S. Debt Ceiling would be Dangerous, Top Obama Aid Says

Costs for home mortgages rise as Fannie, Freddie hike fees 

Mortgage modifications increase 42% in 2010: Hope Now 

DBRS finds half of mortgage modifications redefault

Senate committee considers foreclosure mediation program

Today’s News Synopsis:

The Labor Department reports the economy added 36,000 jobs in January. The Congressional Oversight Panel expects future losses on commercial real estate loans to cost between $200 billion and $300 billion. Orange County construction unemployment increased to 22.5%.

In The News:

Washington Post“Housing finance changes likely to mean less government backing for some buyers” (2-4-11)

“The Obama administration is likely to recommend reducing the size of mortgages eligible for government backing, according to current and former officials”

Housing Wire“Nonfarm payrolls add 36,000 jobs, unemployment down to 9%” (2-4-11)

“The Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said the economy added 36,000 jobs during the first month of 2011 with gains in manufacturing and retail. Employment levels fell in the construction, transportation and warehousing sectors with little change in most other industries.”

Housing Wire“Multifamily delinquency rate in CMBS climbs to 17.4%, highest ever recorded by Fitch” (2-4-11)

“The delinquency rate in the multifamily sector rose to 17.4% in January, up from 15.63% the prior month and at the highest level since Fitch began tracking CMBS delinquencies.”

Housing Wire“Easing tax burdens on investors could stem CRE losses: COP” (2-4-11)

“Future losses on commercial real estate loans could cost between $200 billion and $300 billion, but easing certain tax levies against investors could alleviate the problem, according to the Congressional Oversight Panel.”

Housing Wire“Hudson & Marshall to auction more than 700 homes in Southwest” (2-4-11)

“Several hundreds of real estate-owned properties in the Southwest United States are up for auction and, according to auction house Hudson & Marshall, that volume will be meeting equal demand. The firm is auctioning off more than 700 homes in Arizona, California and Nevada over the next two weeks.”

Housing Wire“FDIC, SEC both name new general counsel” (2-4-11)

“The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. named Michael Krimminger FDIC general counsel on Friday.”

Bloomberg - “U.S. Commercial Property Recovery Spares Economy” (2-4-11)

“Prices of commercial properties sold by institutional investors surged 19 percent in 2010, the second-biggest gain on record, according to an index developed by the MIT Center for Real Estate. Investments in office properties, the largest part of the market, more than doubled last year to $41.6 billion, according to Real Capital Analytics Inc., which tracks commercial property sales globally.”

Orange County Register“Construction umeployment hits 22.5%” (2-4-11)

“Construction unemployment jumped to 22.5 percent. December’s construction unemployment was 20.7 percent.”

Orange County Register“Bottom near for biggest O.C. properties” (2-4-11)

“I’m not quite sure where the apartment recession is. It’s definitely down in rents. There’s no doubt about that. (But) people are buying Southern California apartments like they’ll never be built again. And some of the smartest people I know — Donald Bren, the Lewis family — are building like mad.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, Marcus & Millichap annual apartment report placed San Diego in second place for stability and possible growth in 2010. Statistics from MDA DataQuick showed that 18,621 California homes sold for over 1 million dollars in 2009. Freddie Mac reported the rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages increased to 5.01 percent. PMI predicted that home values were near to the bottom.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 1/26/11

Wednesday, January 26th, 2011

Today’s News Synopsis:

The MBA reports mortgage application volume fell 12.9% this week. According to the Commerce Department, new home sales dropped 7.6% year over year. $1.5 trillion in commercial debt is set to mature by 2014. A total of 58,020 loan modifications have been canceled, said the Treasury Department.

In The News:

Mortgage Banking Association“Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey” (1-26-11)

“The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 21, 2011. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 12.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 12.0 percent compared with the previous week.”

Los Angeles Times“New-home sales increase in December” (1-26-11)

“New-home sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 329,000 units, a 7.6% drop from December 2009, the Commerce Department said. A total of 321,000 homes were built in 2010, the lowest level in 47 years, according to the Associated Press.”

Housing Wire“SIGTARP: HAMP’s failure ‘devastating,’ permanent mods flat in December” (1-26-11)

“Mortgage servicers modified 30,030 troubled loans through the Home Affordable Modification Program in December, only a slight uptick from the month before and still underwhelming to the program’s largest watchdog.”

Housing Wire“FHA terminates more than a dozen HUD mortgage originators and underwriters” (1-26-11)

“The Federal Housing Administration terminated agreements with 15 originators and seven underwriters approved for mortgage insurance from the Department of Housing and Urban Development, according to a recent Federal Register.”

Housing Wire“Deloitte says the time is now for curing distressed borrowers” (1-26-11)

“Commercial loans in particular, are the big trouble area. There are $1.5 trillion in these debts maturing by 2014, and the means to finance are all but nonexistent. The commercial mortgage-backed securities market is improving, to be sure, but at issuance hitting $11 billion in 2010, down from a peak $230 billion in 2007.”

Bloomberg - “U.S. Foreclosure-Prevention Program Accelerated in December Amid Criticism” (1-26-11)

“Borrowers aided by the Home Affordable Modification Program grew to 579,650 in December, 5.5 percent more than a month earlier. Participation had grown 4.5 percent in November. Troubled borrowers continue to fail out of the program at a faster rate than they join. A total of 58,020 loan modifications have been canceled, a nearly 30 percent increase from the 44,972 reported in November, the Treasury report said.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, CBIA reported that 36,209 building permits were issued in California last year. The 30-year mortgage rate decreased by 0.4 percent in December. DBRS expected loan servicers to allow more principal reductions. According to RealFacts, the average  Orange County apartment rent fell 6.7% during the 4th quarter of 2009.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 1/24/11

Monday, January 24th, 2011

Today’s News Synopsis:

The CBIA reports total building permits issued during 2010 increased 23% from 2009. Statistics from Trulia show that owning a home is cheaper than renting one in 72% of the largest cities in the United States. Commercial property values rose 0.6% in November, according to Moody’s.

In The News:

Los Angeles Times“Estimate of mortgage interest tax deduction’s effect on federal deficit is lowered” (1-23-10)

“$88 billion less in revenue losses are now projected over the next three fiscal years — than the committee estimated early in 2010.”

CBIA - “It’s Official: 2010 is Second-lowest Year on Record for Homebuilding in California” (1-24-10)

“CBIA said just 44,601 permits were issued statewide last year for new homes, apartments, condominiums and townhomes, up 23 percent from 2009, but down 31 percent from 2008, which had held the distinction of the second-lowest total on record with 64,962 permits issued. Records began being kept in 1954 with the lowest yearly total set in 2009 with 36,421 permits issued.”

Inman - “Cheaper to buy than to rent in 72% of largest U.S. cities” (1-24-10)

“Despite the rising number of renters across the country, it is cheaper to buy a home rather than rent one in 72 percent of the 50 largest cities in the U.S., according to an index released by real estate search and marketing site Trulia.”

New York Times“Mortgage Giants Leave Legal Bills to the Taxpayers” (1-24-10)

“Since the government took over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, taxpayers have spent more than $160 million defending the mortgage finance companies and their former top executives in civil lawsuits accusing them of fraud.”

Housing Wire“Moody’s CPPI rose 0.6% for November, down 4.3% since May” (1-24-10)

“The price of commercial property rose 0.6% in November, marking the third-consecutive month of gains following sharp declines for the previous three months, according to Moody’s Investors Service.”

Housing Wire“Campbell Surveys: Strong distressed property sales bookend robo-signing debacle” (1-24-10)

“First-time homebuyer activity remained relatively strong last month, though still near historic lows, as purchasers rushed to close transactions before interest rates rise further, according to housing industry consultancy group Campbell Surveys. In December, the firm’s HousingPulse distressed property index shows these transactions make up 47.2% of the market, up from 44.5% in November and nearly matching the 47.5% peak reached in September.”

Housing Wire“JPMorgan: Annual homes sales must average 5.5 million to absorb liquidations” (1-24-10)

“JPMorgan Securities said existing home sales need to average about 5.5 million units a year to absorb a projected 2.25 million to 2.5 million in liquidations.”

Orange County Register – “Demand for O.C. homes jumps 10%” (1-24-10)

“Demand, the number of new pending sales over the prior month, increased by 10% in the past two weeks, adding an additional 194 homes, and now totals 2,154 pending sales. That’s virtually identical to 2009 when it posted 2,146. Last year, there were 393 additional pending sales, but everybody was poised to take advantage of the $8,000 first time home buyer tax. From here, expect demand to continue to improve as the market prepares to enter the spring market, the strongest time of the year for Orange County housing.”

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 1/19/11

Wednesday, January 19th, 2011

Today’s News Synopsis:

The Commerce Department reports housing starts decreased in December. However, Fannie Mae expects housing starts to triple by 2013, and the nation’s largest home builders announced plans to increase activity by 10%.  RealtyTrac claims foreclosure starts in California decreased 33% in 2010.

In The News:

Mortgage Bankers Association“Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey” (1-19-11)

“The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 5.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 6.4 percent compared with the previous week.”

New York Times“U.S. Housing Starts Slowed Sharply in December” (1-19-11)

“Housing starts in the United States dropped to an annual rate of 529,000 units, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday, down from November’s 553,000 and well below forecasts of about 550,000 in a Reuters poll. At current levels, starts account for less than a quarter of their boom-time peaks.”

Housing Wire“Bair pushes for foreclosure claims review panel” (1-19-11)

“Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair wants a foreclosure claims commission set up, similar to the one established during the oil spill crisis in the Gulf of Mexico last year, to help homeowners victimized by improper foreclosures.”

Housing Wire“December home sales down 5% over a year: RE/MAX” (1-19-11)

“After five consecutive months of declines, monthly home sales rose 13.2% in December from the prior month, according to the RE/MAX National Housing Report released Wednesday.”

Housing Wire“Fannie Mae: Housing starts to triple by 2013 to nearly 1.5 million” (1-19-11)

“Despite the still fragile housing market, Fannie Mae expects housing starts to triple by 2013. According to the agency’s economic outlook, housing starts are predicted to increase 17.3% and hit 710,000 this year, with another 47% increase to 1.1 million in 2012 and another gain of 42% in 2013 to nearly 1.5 million.”

Housing Wire“Foreclosures increase 2% in 2010, decline in hotspots” (1-18-11)

“ForeclosureRadar, which tracks foreclosure data on the West Coast, reported 338,999 foreclosure starts in California in 2010, down 33% from one year prior. Arizona filings fell 18% to 119,790, and Nevada filings fell 19% to 86,010.”

Bloomberg - “Biggest U.S. Homebuilders Take Over Market as New-Home Sales Begin Rebound” (1-18-11)

“D.R. Horton Inc., Lennar Corp. and Toll Brothers Inc. are among companies planning to boost their community counts by at least 10 percent this year after writing down property values, buying land at discounted prices and obtaining financing unavailable to smaller, closely held builders.”

Bloomberg - “Wells Fargo Refuses to Settle Fannie, Freddie Refund Demands” (1-18-11)

“Prodded by lawmakers, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have pressed banks including Wells Fargo to buy back mortgages that were based on faulty data about the homes and borrowers. Wells Fargo said today in its fourth-quarter report that demands from the government-owned mortgage companies declined for a second straight quarter and now stand at $1.5 billion.”

Bloomberg - “Global Commercial Property Investment May Rise 25% in 2011, JLL Reports” (1-18-11)

“Investment in commercial property may rise by 25 percent worldwide this year, after returning confidence produced the most deals in the fourth quarter since 2007, Jones Lang La Salle Inc. said.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, MDA Dataquick’s monthly report showed that 22,328 homes were sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange County in one month . AFIRE conducted a survey in which 51 percent of foreign investors claimed the US provided the best opportunity for capital appreciation. Builder confidence decreased from the previous month. Fitch Ratings saw many positive signals for housing and other related industries which they believed would lead to a strong recovery.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 1/6/11

Thursday, January 6th, 2011

Today’s News Synopsis:

According to Freddie Mac, rates on 30-year FRMs fell to 4.77% this week. Altos Research reports home prices fell 1.63% in December. Timothy Geithner requested from Congress to increase the national debt limit. The current debt limit is $14.29 trillion, and the nation’s current debt level is just $335 billion short of the limit.

In The News:

Research Institute for Housing America“A Study of Real Estate Markets in Declining Cities” (1-6-11)

“many places will likely resume growth and fully recover within the next decade or so. This is almost certainly not to be the case for all metropolitan areas. In fact, a number of large metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) experienced severe recessions during the latter half of the 20th century and prior to the Great Recession and never fully recovered or took many years to do so”

USA Today“30-year fixed mortgage rate dips to 4.77% average in latest week” (1-6-11)

“Freddie Mac says the average rate on 30-year mortgages dropped to 4.77% from 4.86% the previous week. It hit a 40-year low of 4.17% in November.”

Realty Times“Consequences of Defaults and Foreclosures” (1-6-11)

“One of the most startling impacts of a foreclosure appears on one’s credit report. Your credit score may plummet by 200 to 300 points. In this economic climate, where credit lending standards are already tightened, you may then find it difficult to do everything from buying a car to renting an apartment. What’s worse is that the notation of foreclosure stays on your report for up to seven years.”

Housing Wire“Altos: Home prices down 1.63% in December, new listings even lower” (1-6-11)

“Home prices fell 1.63% in December, but new listings are hitting the market well below that, according to analytics firm Altos Research. Prices fell in each of the 27 markets studied by Altos. Prices fell 4.77% in San Francisco — the steepest drop of any area, 3.71% in San Diego”

Housing Wire“Commercial mortgage modifications become huge trend in just two years” (1-6-11)

“Of all loan modifications in the commercial mortgage industry over the past decade, 96% occurred in the last years, according to Standard & Poor’s. The rating agency said 354 commercial real estate loans with a principal balance $15.6 billion were modified from January through November, up significantly from 216 loans valued at $7.06 billion for all of 2009.”

Housing Wire“DebtX November CRE loan volume down to 80.3%” (1-6-11)

“The decline in the value of commercial real estate loans in November was due primarily to an increase in Treasury rates”

Housing Wire“Geithner urges Congress to increase national debt limit” (1-6-11)

“Geithner wrote a letter to Congress Thursday requesting an increase in the federal debt limit. According to his numbers, the current debt limit set last February is $14.29 trillion. As of the writing of the letter, the outstanding debt subject to the limit standards is $13.95 trillion — just $335 billion shy of the maximum.”

Housing Wire“Equator’s Vella: Short sales set to swell 25% in 2011″ (1-6-11)

“With one in five borrowers underwater on their home and an estimated 1.5 million foreclosures scheduled for 2011, the opportunity for short sales will be better than ever. Investors usually see a 20% to 30% better execution on a short sale versus an REO sale when it comes to loss severity. With the foreclosure volume, current and pending REO inventories, servicers will be pressed to do more short sales in 2011.”

Housing Wire“New Fannie interactive Web tool provides foreclosure avoidance options” (1-6-11)

“Fannie Mae’s new WaysHome interactive multimedia tool walks homeowners through options if they are struggling to pay the mortgage — even allowing them to select a character and be a part of an interactive video.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, California Governor Schwarzenegger announced a new home buyer tax credit. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that mortgage applications had increased by .4 percent from Christmas. The FOMC confirmed plans to buy $1.25 trillion in mortgage-backed-securities from Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae and Ginnie Mae. Eugene Ludwig believed that commercial real estate losses would break historical records in 2010.

For m ore information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

206-TNG Radio – Jon R. Daurio 12-25-10

Friday, December 24th, 2010

Jon Daurio

John R. Daurio

Chairman of Kondaur Capital


 

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This week Bruce is joined by Jon R. Duario. Jon is the chairman and chief exective officer of Kondaur Capital. He founded Park Place Capital in 2001, and sold it to Ameriquest Mortgage Company in 2002. After the sale, the name of the business changed to Sprint Funding Corp, and Jon remained as president through May 2006. He received his Juris doctorate and Masters from UFC, and his BA Cum Laude from Harvard. He is also a fifth degree black belt in Tae Kwon Do.

This week Bruce is joined once again by Jon Daurio.  Mr. Daurio is currently the chairman and chief executive officer of Kondaur Capital.  Previously, Mr. Daurio co-founded Parkplace Capital in 2001, sold that business to Ameriquest Mortgage Company in ’02.  After the sale the name of the business was changed to Sprint Funding Corp.  John remained with Sprint as president, general counsel through May of 06.  John founded Encore Capital Corp., a national wholesale residential mortgage banker.  Mr. Daurio received his juris doctorate and masters from USC and his bachelor of arts degree cum laude from Harvard, and somehow in his spare time managed to get a fifth degree black belt in Tae Kwon Do.

Note pools most frequently involve a competitive bid situation, but not always. When a large pool of loans, or any pool of loans for that matter, is being sold, the seller typically will sell those loans.  Most analogous to what I think people would understand to be a sealed bid, although it’s not literally in a sealed envelope or anything like that, so it is a competitive bid situation.  Many of our sellers that we’ve dealt with repeatedly though will sell or deal with us on a negotiated trade basis, meaning that they’ll deal directly with us, and I believe they do that because we have proven ourselves over the last 3 and a half years that we’ve been in business and buying these loans to be if not the most competitive bidder meaning we’re paying the highest prices for these loans, at least the most experienced and, I’ll use the term easiest, purchaser to deal with because the purchase of these loans is not an easy procedure, and there’s tons of laws and issues that have to be addressed when a loan is purchased and servicing is transferred.

Its hard to imagine the infrastructure you have to have to do diligence on for a pool of loans, especially if it’s all over the country. That’s one of the reasons Daurio’s company has almost 500 employees and growing.

The way the market works, which is the majority, on a competitive basis, a pool of loans is given with information about the loans, the address of the house, the credit history of the borrower, the terms of the existing loan, the payment history, especially since I focus on non-performing loans, when the last payment was made, where those payments were made and you get what’s called an indicative bid.  We at Kondaur as well as others give an indicative bid stating, “If all of the information that you’ve provided to us is true, this is what our price would be.  However, we need to conduct a due diligence review of the loans in order to A. verify that the data that you’ve given us is true, and B. determine what other types of compensating factors or issues that could change what we offer for loans.  I will note that Kondaur Capital Corporation is unique and has a reputation as being the nation’s only true loan level bidder, meaning when we receive a pool of loans; let’s say 1,000 loans, we give 1,000 individual loan prices and allow the seller to cherry pick us. Bruce was surprised to hear this.

Many of Daurio’s competitors are surprised when Daurio explains to them which loans he doesn’t like out of a pool of 1,000. For example, I might say, “Okay, well I like your prices on these 820 loans, but I don’t like it on this 180 loans.”  Many of our competitors in that situation will say, “Well wait a second, we’ve gotta re-price because we assumed we were going to purchase all the loans.”  And that’s in essence the difference.  It’s that we do a meticulous, an extensive review of each individual loan to the point that each individual price stands on its own.  So in answer to your question, ‘How long does that take?’  Typically that takes us between two and three weeks to complete.

This is not for the purpose of getting the indicative bid. The indicative bid is something that we do on a macro basis or a modeling basis that would give a price.  And then the final price takes us about two or three weeks.

The value of a loan I would say is what a ready, willing and able buyer would pay for that loan, and because I am a ready, willing and able buyer, my purchase price is an accurate depiction of what the value of that loan is.  And in turning the value of that loan, we spend a tremendous amount of efforts analyzing both what the expected sale price would be of the home securing the loan assuming that we’re going to take title to the house as part of the resolution effort which we do approximately 75% of the time.  The (indistinguishable) majority by paying for a deed in lieu of foreclosure as opposed to foreclosing on the loan, as well as an analysis of what is the current credit situation of the borrower, which we determine with very little information available to us because during that bidding process we’re not allowed to contact the borrower.  We have to rely on existing servicing and collection notes and the origination file that might or might not be available.

For every 100 loans purchases, Kondaur eventually owns the house as an REO about 75% of the time. For the other 25% of loan purchases, Kondaur is selling the loan on a one-by-one basis or refinancing it.  With the available FHA programs, Kondaur could successfully do a refinance of the loan about 4% of the time.  About 1% of the time the borrower’s actually able to come up with funds to give me a short payoff where Kondaur will forgive a fairly significant amount of the principle balance but they’ll be able to pay me.  Or Kondaur will modify the note either by principle forgiveness and/or payment reduction, but in that situation Kondaur won’t hold it; it’ll still sell the note or it’ll sell it as is.

Kondaur sells 100% of the REOs that it takes title on, even after we’ve taken property back.  As Jon said in the past segment, when Kondaur takes title to a house as REO it is very, very quick if there are people still in the house to go through any of the cash for keys process.  Or, if the occupant won’t cooperate, an eviction process, and then Kondaur rehabilitates the property to put it in turn-key condition, meaning that whoever buys the house doesn’t have to put any money into the house in order to live in it, and then sell it.  Typically, Kondaur has a REO off the books within about 3 months.

There are some opportunities for investors willing to come in and pay at a lesser price and close these things in a week.  This prevents Daurio from taking the 3 month journey. But again, we don’t take cash because we have a need for liquidity.  I’m very, very fortunate in this sense that my company is very well capitalized.  We have access to well over a billion dollars of capital.  But the reason why we do it is I am very pessimistic on a national basis and especially in the Inland Empire as to home prices in 2011 and 2012.  So if there is an expected, which I think in the Inland Empire could be as high as another 1% per month decrease in the value of the homes.  If I get cash today, it’s better than trying to get under contract in 3 months.  This is a side note:  we, with rare exception, will ever accept a purchase offer where the close of escrow is beyond 30 days.

FHA has about 555,000 people 90 days late or more, and they only have 50,000 current REOs.  Daurio is interested in getting pools of loans that are able to be purchased from the Department of Housing and Urban Development.  He is currently dealing with members of HUD.  He is trying to figure out how we might be able to buy and/or service their loans.

Another thing that makes Kondaur Capital somewhat unique in this market, especially relative to other people that are buying these loans, is I require only two representations and warranties on behalf of the seller: that they own the loan, and that they can sell it.  Meaning that if they breech either of those representations or warranties; they didn’t own the loan or they didn’t have the ability to sell it, I can mandate under contract that they have to buy it back.  Things like title, what leans are on the property, I take upon myself the responsibility for determining that, and the way we determine it is rarely by a full-blown title insurance policy, but there’s a product that many of the title companies make available called an ownership and encumbrance, or ONE report, and that’s what we rely on for trying to determine what leans exist against the property or what the situation is with who really owns the property and how title is held.

We never buy a loan that’s in the MERS system.   One of the things that we require before we close on the purchase of any loans is that the loans are out of MERS before we purchase them. From the day I started the company and built it we wanted it out of MERS.  I won’t say I anticipated these kinds of issues, but I always want to try to minimize the number of parties that are involved and the resolution of the loan.  One of the reasons why we do very few short sales is because typically in a short sale the borrower’s going to vacate the house by selling it, and we’d rather just pay them for a deed in lieu of foreclosure and then sell the house ourselves.

Daurio has noticed some attitude changes of the occupants in the 3 years that he has been doing this. This is because of the media making borrowers more aware that owners of loans, like myself, would be willing to pay them for a deed in lieu of foreclosure despite the fact that they haven’t made payments for months or even years.  We’ve seen some people that are more amiable to take that because they didn’t even know it was available.  Then we have some borrowers that because of the publicity of issues on litigation with respect to issues like modifications or MERS or the robo-signer issues or things like that they’re holding out.  I guess there’s actually a third thing, and the third thing is that people are just making economic decisions that unlike what we offer at Kondaur Capital Corporation to a borrower to vacate, the borrowers are making economic decisions saying, “Okay, you’re willing to give me X dollars, but I could stay in my house rent-free for X number of months,” and the two don’t equate.  So therefore it’s economically better for them to remain in their house rent-free than it is to accept what so many of my competitors offer which is simply a nominal amount of money.

There are many failed loan modifications within these pools. Potentially half of the loans I buy today are failed modifications. Bruce is very surprised by this. Bruce doesn’t understand why a lender would choose the pool method of selling as opposed to making it one at a time.  He would think they would net more by doing this. Daurio thinks it’s more ignorance or purposeful sticking your head in the sand to avoid the issue.  Let’s recall that there is a separation of the owner of the loan and the servicer of the loan.  Many servicers of these loans are the same servicers that were granted the right to service these loans when these were performing loans and therefore the amount of money that the servicers are being paid to service the loans is woefully inadequate for the servicer to properly staff both in terms of quantity and quality of people.  Quite frankly these servicers aren’t staffed to be able to service these loans on a one-by-one basis; and the owner of the loans, even if they get smart enough to realize that this is an issue, is unwilling to pay the servicers to adequately staff.  This is not that bad of a decision because so many of the relationships are adversarial in the sense that a servicer typically makes money on servicing fees and therefore liquidating the loan is not in their best interest.  But it may be for the owner of the loan.  That’s why at Kondaur, we’re an owner servicer.  We do third-party service for some, but those are the entities that understand and we actually make our self obligated to take the route that is the best for the owner of the loan and not necessarily for us.  Daurio tries to align those interests in the contracts he has with them.

This round of foreclosures and not receiving payments is probably creating a lot more overhead for the servicers than they were anticipating. At Kondaur Capital Corporation, when we service with third party service, in our servicing agreements we really retain a tremendous amount of flexibility and authority to do what we think is best.  In fact, I have not taken on third party servicing assignments where the owner of the loan wants to inject their opinion.  In other words, they want to put a limit on how much I could offer for a cash for keys or for a deed in lieu of foreclosure based on things like a percentage of what the loan is worth or a percentage of what the house is worth or a percentage of the unpaid principle balance, all things which I think are irrelevant in determining how much should be offered to a borrower for cash for keys.  What should be offered to a borrower for cash for keys should be the subject of two analyses.  One, if the borrower were to make an economic decision and continue to live rent-free, what is that value relative to what is being offered?  And then secondly, what is the benefit to getting the house quickly, especially when you are like I am where you think housing prices are still going to depreciate fairly significantly in the upcoming months and years.

Bruce just did some research on not just the pricing of California in terms of what homes are selling for, but the cost per month. Cal Poly Pomona does a report and has for several decades, and twice a year they reappraise the same address in many different cities in California.  I went back to 1990 level pricing and compared it to 2010, and I’ll just pick Lancaster/Palmdale.  The actual price is -11% for that 20 year period, dollar for dollar, not inflation adjusted.  Interest rates were 10.2% in 1990, and interest rates now are say 4 and a half.  So you have a 55% discount on the cost of a loan and you have income that’s increased.   So it’s interesting that the market is so unwilling to buy a product that’s virtually on sale at an all-time level monthly.

Daurio agrees, but there are other situations in which, for an owner of a loan such as himself, getting ownership of that house can be faster and better.  It’s not just because he expects housing prices to continue to deteriorate, but also because rent-free borrowers in the house are not expending money on maintenance, and so there is an increased amount of what we call deferred maintenance, which is a great cost.  Thirdly, when we take title to a house by paying a borrower for a deed in lieu of foreclosure, the borrowers are not vindictive as we have heard borrowers have been in other foreclosures where they rip out the piping or cabinetry or plumbing or things like that.  Most of Kondaur’s borrowers, nobody happy about the fact that they’ve lost their home, but they feel like they’re definitely treated better and better off than with their previous servicer.

Bruce feels that is a good point, because somebody can do an awful lot of damage in a bad mood in one day, no doubt about that. Daurio considers this sort of property damage to be criminal. Bruce has found it very hard for anyone to acknowledge that this might be true.  We buy at the trustees sales, and we have sometimes people very blatantly doing things that were detrimental to the property.   You can call the police; you can even go to the extent of a lawsuit and it would be very tough to justify the activity just because it doesn’t seem like you have too many people on your side.

Daurio believes there will be some different occurrences in 2011 from 2010. He see more loans going to default. Also, he see more loss severities, because he believes housing prices will depreciate more in 2011 than 2010.

Kondaur Capital Corporation will begin purchasing commercial loans. Daurio started a subsidiary company called Kondaur Commercial; and it is going to both third-party service and purchase initially small balance commercial loans. By small balance he means 5 million or less.

Kondaur Capital has purchased quite a number of land loans.  It’s just not as large a market as one to four family or small balance commercial. Bruce thinks this would probably entail holding it at this point.  Daurio disagrees saying, “No actually, again, it’s all of a function of so many things in real estate:  you make money on the buy.  We buy land loans when we think we have an exit strategy that is profitable.”

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 12/15/10

Wednesday, December 15th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

16,208 new and resale houses and condos sold in Southern California in November. The NAR claims 9 of the 10 most cost-effective home repair projects in terms of value recouped are exterior replacement projects. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods expects revenue from multifamily real estate investment trusts to grow at an annual rate of 4.6% in 2011. Investor confidence in U.S. commercial property is the highest since 2007, according to Bank of America.

In The News:

NAHB - “Builder Confidence Remains Flat in December” (12-15-10)

“Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes remained unchanged in December from the previous month at 16 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today.”

MDA DataQuick“Southland Home Sales Dip; Prices Change Little” (12-15-10)

“A total of 16,208 new and resale houses and condos sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties last month. That was down 3.2 percent from 16,744 sales in October, and down 15.5 percent from 19,181 in November 2009, according to MDA DataQuick of San Diego.”

NAR - “Home Owners Recoup More with Exterior Replacement Projects, REALTORS® Report” (12-15-10)

“Nine of the top 10 most cost-effective projects nationally in terms of value recouped are exterior replacement projects. The steel entry door replacement remained the project that returned the most money, with an estimated 102.1 percent of cost recouped upon resale; it is also the only project in this year’s report that is expected to return more than the cost. The midrange garage door replacement, a new addition to the report this year, is expected to recoup 83.9 percent of costs. Both projects are small investments that cost little more than $1,200 each, on average”

Housing Wire“KBW: Sunny days ahead for multifamily REITs” (12-15-10)

“Revenue brought in by multifamily real estate investment trusts is expected to grow at an annualized rate of 4.6% in 2011, according to an outlook released by investment bank Keefe, Bruyette & Woods. That estimate is up from the firm’s previous estimate of 3.6% released in early December.”

Housing Wire“New CRA rule gives banks credit for work in high-foreclosure areas” (12-15-10)

“The rule changes the definition of ‘community development’ in CRA regulations to include loans, investments and services in areas targeted by the Department of Housing and Urban Development’s Neighborhood Stabilization Program. According to the final rule, high levels of foreclosures are expected into 2012 and beyond, which will continue to effect low- and moderate-income areas.”

Bloomberg - “Real Estate Avoids `Catastrophe’ With Yields at ’07 Levels: Credit Markets” (12-15-10)

“Investor confidence in U.S. commercial property is the highest since the 2007 market peak, a sentiment reflected in bonds of real-estate companies that own everything from New York skyscrapers to California strip malls. Yields on debt issued by real-estate investment trusts average 210 basis points more than Treasuries, the least since Nov. 12, 2007, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, home sales decreased by 13.3 percent in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange County. The Federal Reserve planned to leave interest rates at the record low. Research from Trulia and RealtyTrac showed that 43% of U.S. adults would consider buying foreclosed property. A survey from JBREC showed that 57 percent of home builders expected to receive more revenue in 2010 than 2009.