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Posts Tagged ‘Census Bureau’

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 8/2/10

Monday, August 2nd, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

Alan Greenspan expressed concern that a decrease in home prices might cause the U.S. to slip back into recession. The Census Bureau estimates the homeownership rate will fall to 62% in 2012. Moody’s reports strategic delinquencies are falling on jumbo mortgages. Construction spending remained relatively flat with just a 0.1 percent increase last month.

In The News:

Bloomberg - “Greenspan Says Drop in Home Prices Might Bring Back Recession” (8-1-10)

“Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the slowing economic recovery in the U.S. feels like a ‘quasi-recession’ and the economy might contract again if home prices decline.”

Los Angeles Times – “Builders’ pricing strategies are aimed at creating sales urgency” (8-1-10)

“The first bump occurs when ground is broken for the project. Then builders up the ante when the streets go in, and again when the model homes begin to take shape. Prices go up for a fourth time with the big opening splash.”

USA Today – “Homeownership rate continues to slide” (8-2-10)

“Fresh projections say the rate could plummet to about 62% as early as 2012 and almost certainly by the end of the decade. Homeownership rates haven’t been that low since they hit 61.9% in 1960. The share of households that own their homes has been sliding since the housing bubble burst in 2006. The rate fell again in the second quarter of this year to 66.9% — the lowest since 1999 — from a peak of 69.4% in 2004, the Census Bureau says.”

Mercury News – “June construction activity rises 0.1 percent” (8-2-10)

“Construction spending rose 0.1 percent in June, the Commerce Department reported Monday. While that was better than the decline economists had forecast, the government sharply revised down its estimate of activity in May to show a drop of 1 percent rather than the 0.2 percent dip initially reported.”

Housing Wire – “Strategic Defaults Falling on Jumbo Mortgages, Relative to Smaller Loans: Moody’s” (8-2-10)

“According to a weekly credit report from Moody’s Investors Service, jumbo mortgage delinquencies, in this case delinquencies on mortgages over $1m, are almost equal to mortgage delinquencies for smaller mortgages. The agency monitors the risk of default across mortgages that are bundled into bonds and sold as residential mortgage-backed securitizations.”

Housing Wire – “2010 CMBS Modifications Outnumber the Last 2 Years Combined: Trepp” (8-2-10)

“As delinquency increases begin to slow, modifications on CMBS loans are accelerating, according to the analytics firm, Trepp. Further, halfway through 2010, modifications have already passed the amount done in 2008 and 2009 combined. The rate of modifications is set to triple the rate in 2009. In the first seven months of 2010, there have been modifications done on $12.1bn worth of CMBS loans, a 37% increase from the $8.8bn done in all of 2009 and more than four times the $354m modified in 2008, according to Trepp.”

Housing Wire – “Government Refi Wave Could Cost GSE Bondholders $350bn: KBW” (8-2-10)

“Recent record-low mortgage rates have sparked fears amongst investors that a government-driven refinancing wave would boost prepayment speeds back to 2003 levels. According to KBW, there is a cost to such a policy shift, contrary to what supporters of action have said. The agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market trades a premium of almost seven basis points. If all borrowers refinanced into the current mortgage rates, roughly $350bn would transfer from bondholders to borrowers, equaling $75bn annually.”

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 7/26/10

Monday, July 26th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

The Commerce Department new home sales increased 23.6% last month. Statistics from LPS show show 9.39% of all loans were delinquent by more than 30 days. The national vacancy rate on multifamily properties  decreased to 7.8%, according to BarCap. A survey from Campbell Survey suggests that home prices will continue to fall.

In The News:

CNN - “New home sales rebound 24%” (7-26-10)

“New home sales increased 23.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 330,000 last month, up from an downwardly revised 267,000 in May, the Commerce Department reported Monday. Sales year-over-year fell 16.7%.”

CBIA - “Housing Starts Rise Again in June, CBIA Announces” (7-26-10)

“According to statistics compiled by the Construction Industry Research Board (CIRB), permits were pulled for 4,238 total housing units in June, up 19 percent from the same month a year ago and up 34 percent from May. It was the largest monthly total since December of 2008 when 4,658 total permits had been issued. Permits for single-family homes totaled 2,628, down 9 percent from June 2009 but up 33 percent from the previous month, while multifamily permits totaled 1,610, up 140 percent from a year ago and up 35 percent from May.”

Wall Street Journal – “Mortgage Delinquencies Fall in June, Still Near Record Highs” (7-26-10)

“Some 9.39% of all loans were 30 days or more past due, down from 9.54% in May, according to LPS Applied Analytics, which tracks loan data. An additional 3.69% of mortgages were in some stage of foreclosure, down from 3.72% in May and the record high of 3.81% in March.”

Housing Wire – “Multifamily Rental Demand Catching up to Supply: BarCap” (7-26-10)

“The multifamily net absorption rate, or the amount of space leased after deducting the amount of supply, increased by more than 46,000 units in Q210, the highest increase in 10 years, according to BarCap. The national vacancy rate on multifamily properties also decreased to 7.8% from 8% over the same time”

Housing Wire – “As FHA Mortgage Volume Increases From 2009, Serious Delinquencies Spike” (7-26-10)

“The rate of seriously delinquent mortgages backed by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) declined slightly from May to June, but the gross number of mortgages that are either 90 or more days past due or in foreclosure increased 35% year-over-year. According to the FHA June single-family operations report, the total volume of mortgage in-force increased more than 24% to 6.4m in June compared to the same month one year ago. The total value of unpaid FHA mortgages was $865.5bn in June, up 30.3% from $663.8bn one year ago and up 3.3% from $837.8bn in May.”

Housing Wire - “The New Math Surrounding HAMP Doesn’t Add Up” (7-26-10)

“There is no other way to say this: we’re being lied to. Willfully. Anyone who managed to read headlines around the U.S. Treasury’s latest HAMP report card last week would likely have thought the program a huge success –- with more than one media outlet trumpeting impossibly miniscule re-default rates among permanent HAMP mods. At HW, we chose not to run with the HAMP redefault numbers except to note that Treasury officials had added them into the latest report card. And this choice was made with purpose: we knew these numbers were fake. Nobody gets a 1.7% redefault rate 6 months after modification –- not even Uncle Sam”

Housing Wire – “Campbell Survey: Housing Prices Drop in June and Will Continue to Fall” (7-26-10)

“A 32% plummet in new home sales in May correlates with a drop in overall homebuyer activity, although updated data out today from the Census Bureau shows a nearly 24% surge in new home sales in June.”

Housing Wire – “Monday Morning Cup of Coffee” (7-26-10)

“The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) took receivership of seven banks last week with a combined cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) of $468.2m. It brings the total closings in 2010 to 103 banks. At this time last year, there were 64 closings. Bank failures in 2009 took until October to pass 100.”

Housing Wire – “MIT-Harvard Study: Foreclosure drops house value by 27%” (7-26-10)

“A foreclosure reduces the value of a house by 27%, on average, and accounts for a much steeper price drop than other forced sales, according to a study by an Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) economist and two Harvard University researchers. In comparison, when a house is sold after the death of an owner, the price drops 5% to 7% on average. When an owner declares bankruptcy, the value sinks 3%, according to the report.”

Bloomberg - “U.S. Small-Business Aid May Create $300 Billion of `Junk’ Loans” (7-26-10)

“The U.S. Senate may vote this week on a bill to funnel $30 billion of capital to community banks, whose business customers typically are small firms. Banks could leverage the sum to make $300 billion in loans that create jobs, according to a Senate summary. That could more than double the commercial and industrial loans at eligible banks as of the first quarter, according to data compiled by KBW Inc.”

Orange County Register – “Owners rush to sell O.C. homes” (7-26-10)

“Orange County housing inventory grew by the largest amount so far this year, adding an additional 418 homes in the past two weeks and now totals 11,235. The market has not breached the 11,000 mark since the beginning of April 2009. Last year at this time the inventory was at 8,895 homes, 2,340 fewer than today. The inventory has not stopped growing at all this year as more and more pent up homeowners have opted to place their homes on the market at unrealistic levels.”

Orange County Register – “O.C. distressed homes up 35%” (7-26-10)

“Last year at this time, there were 2,616 distressed homes on the market, 841 fewer than today. The number of foreclosures within the active listing inventory increased by 35 homes in the past two weeks from 578 to 613 … Short sales, where a homeowner attempts to sell a home for less than the total outstanding loans against a home, requiring lender approval, increased by 115 homes over the past two weeks and now total 2,844.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, the quarterly homeownership rate was 67.3 percent. The average rate on 30-year fixed mortgages was 5.2 percent. The state Senate approved a budget package that was believed to be capable of closing the state’s $26.3 billion deficit.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 6/15/10

Tuesday, June 15th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

MDA DataQuick reports A total of 22,270 new and resale houses and condos closed escrow in Southern California last month. According to the NAHB, builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family decreased this month. Having a home with a view is on the top 10 list of preferences for 44.5 percent of men. Morgan Stanley’s research has lead the company to conclude that low mortgage rates will prevent a double dip in prices.

In The News:

DQNews - “Southland median sale price back over $300K; sales at 4-year high” (6-15-10)

“A total of 22,270 new and resale houses and condos closed escrow in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties last month. That was up 9.7 percent from 20,299 in April, and up 7.2 percent from 20,775 in May 2009, according to MDA DataQuick of San Diego.”

NAHB - “Builder Confidence Declines in June” (6-15-10)

“Snapping a string of two consecutive monthly gains, builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes fell back to February levels, before the beginning of the home buyer tax credit-related surge, according to results of the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today. The HMI dropped five points to 17 in June.”

Los Angeles Times – “California’s economy to see sluggish recovery this year, UCLA economists say” (6-15-10)

“California stands to gain some jobs this year but recovery will be sluggish, and the state’s inland areas will bear the brunt of the continuing economic pain, according to a forecast scheduled to be released Tuesday by UCLA’s Anderson School of Business.”

Inman - “Top 10 sought-after home features” (6-15-10)

“Men and women’s top 10 preferences were largely the same with two exceptions: having a view made it onto the men’s list (and not the women’s list), with 44.5 percent of men saying it was a high priority; and wood floors made it onto the women’s list (and not the men’s), with 40.9 percent of women ranking them highly.”

Housing Wire – “Low Mortgage Rates Help Block Double-Dip Threat: Morgan Stanley” (6-15-10)

“The US economics team at financial firm Morgan Stanley (MS: 25.96 +2.49%) says in their latest research report that recent gains in the nation’s economy point to a remote chance of a so-called double dip — where recent upticks in economic activity are only temporary — citing low mortgage rates as a key driver in drawing this conclusion.”

Housing Wire – “Shadow Inventory to Take 3 Years to Clear: Standard & Poor’s” (6-15-10)

“The shadow inventory of distressed properties that back residential mortgage-backed securities will take nearly three years to clear at the current sales rate, according to the credit rating agency, Standard & Poor’s (S&P). S&P puts the total principal balance of the shadow inventory at $480bn or 30% of the entire non-agency market.”

Housing Wire – “BofA Permanent HAMP Modifications Passes 70,000 in May” (6-15-10)

“Bank of America (BAC: 15.76 +2.27%) pushed its total number of permanent modifications under the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) to roughly 70,000 in May, up from 56,400 in April.”

Housing Wire – “MGIC Writes $800m in Monthly Mortgage Insurance, Denies Hundreds of Claims” (6-15-10)

“Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Corp. (MGIC), the principal subsidiary of MGIC Investment Corp. (MTG: 9.12 +8.19%), wrote $800m of primary new mortgage insurance in May, according to monthly operations data. The company denied or rescinded — or canceled the policy relating to — almost 1,000 mortgage insurance claims in the month, helping to further reduce the number of delinquencies on its books, according to a press release.”

Housing Wire – “More Funds Repaid to TARP than Outstanding in May: Treasury” (6-15-10)

“Treasury noted in the April update on TARP that it expects to spend less than $550bn of the $700bn authorized for the program, and expects to recover all but $117bn — an estimate that was subsequently revised to $105.4bn. Of $384bn in total TARP disbursements, more than half — or $194bn — was repaid through May, leaving only $190bn outstanding. The sale of 1.5bn shares of Citigroup (C: 3.975 +2.45%) pushed the repayments past outstandings for the first time in TARP’s history.”

Housing Wire – “In These Thin Times, House Sizes Also Begin to Shrink” (6-15-10)

“In 2007, the average single-family home in the United States peaked at 2,521 square feet. That number did not vary greatly into 2008. However, according to a 2009 report from the Census Bureau, it’s now at an average of 2,438 square feet.”

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 5/12/10

Wednesday, May 12th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

The NAHB reports that builder confidence increased from Q1 2009, but is still low. The MBA’s weekly survey shows that mortgage application volume increased by 3.4 percent. According to Freddie Mac, of all borrowers who had 30-year FRMs, 75% refinanced into a new 30-year FRM. Barclays estimates that foreclosure shadow inventory should peak during the summer of 2010.

In The News:

NAHB - “Active Adult Home Builder Activity, Confidence Remain Low” (5-12-10)

“The 55+ single-family HMI measures builder sentiments based on current sales, prospective buyer traffic and anticipated six-month sales for the 55+ single-family market.  A number greater than 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor. Although the index recorded a slight rise in the first quarter of 2010 – moving up two points to 19 from its 2009 Q1 level of 17 – the level of confidence remains low.”

Mortgage Bankers Association – “Refinance Applications Surge, Purchase Applications Drop in Latest MBA Weekly Survey” (5-12-10)

“The Refinance Index increased 14.8 percent from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 9.5 percent from one week earlier.  The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 8.9 percent compared with the previous week and was 0.6 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 7, 2010.  The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 3.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.  On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 3.4 percent compared with the previous week.”

Inman - “More U.S. residents on the move” (5-12-10)

“The percentage of U.S. residents who moved between 2008 and 2009 jumped to 12.5 percent (37.1 million people), according to a report by the U.S. Census Bureau. That increase comes after a record-low move rate between 2007 and 2008: 11.9 percent, or 35.2 million people. The bureau’s data comes from the 2009 Current Population Survey conducted between February and April every year at about 100,000 U.S. addresses. It includes residents who are at least 1 year old.”

Housing Wire – “Freddie Mortgage Refinancing Dominated by Fixed-Rate Products” (5-12-10)

“Of borrowers who had 30-year FRMs, 75% refinanced into a new 30-year FRM, while 15% opted for a 15-year FRM and the remaining 10% chose a 20-year FRM. Freddie said the combined 25% of 30-year borrowers that refinanced into a shorter-term loan is the most since Q304, when 30% of 30-year borrowers refinanced into a balloon mortgage or shorter-term FRM.”

Housing Wire – “Shadow Inventory To Peak in Summer of 2010: Barclays” (5-12-10)

“The shadow inventory of foreclosures should peak in the summer of 2010 before falling gradually in the later months, according to a new report from Barclays Capital. Barclays defines the shadow inventory of foreclosures as loans in 90-plus day delinquency or already in the foreclosure process. According to the report, there are currently 2.4m loans in 90-plus day delinquency and another 2.1m in foreclosure, totaling 4.5m in the shadow inventory.”

Housing Wire – “End in Sight for General Growth Bankruptcy” (5-12-10)

“The end is in sight, as a plan is in place for General Growth Properties (GGP: 14.96 +0.20%) to emerge from bankruptcy as early as this summer. The judge overseeing the case approved bidding procedures and the issuance of warrants to a group of investors led by Brookfield Asset Management (BAM: 25.49 +1.03%).”

Bloomberg - “‘Perfect Quarter’ at Four U.S. Banks Shows Fed-Fueled Revival” (5-12-10)

“Bank of America Corp., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the first, second and fifth-biggest U.S. banks by assets, all said in regulatory filings that they had zero days of trading losses in the first quarter. Citigroup Inc., the third-largest, doesn’t break out its daily trading revenue by quarter. It recorded a profit on each trading day, two people with knowledge of the results said.”

Bloomberg - “Morgan Stanley’s Gorman Denies Bank Misled CDO Buyers” (5-12-10)

“Morgan Stanley Chief Executive Officer James Gorman denied allegations the U.S. bank misled investors about mortgage derivatives it sold them. The firm is being probed by U.S. prosecutors over whether the bank misled clients when it sold them collateralized debt obligations as its own traders bet that the value of the securities would drop, the Wall Street Journal reported today. The New York-based firm hasn’t been contacted by the Justice Department, Gorman told reporters in Tokyo today.”

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 5/7/10

Friday, May 7th, 2010

Looking Back:

Analysts are claiming that an increase in the average family size could reduce demand for housing. The US Senate is proposing many new changes to the Restoring American Financial Stability Act. The Department of Labor reports that national unemployment levels increased to 9.9 percent. According to the US Census Bureau, the homeownership rate fell to 67.1 percent in the first quarter.

In The News:

USA Today – “Increase in household size could slow economic recovery” (5-7-10)

“The number of people living under one roof is growing for the first time in more than a century, a fallout of the recession that could reduce demand for housing and slow the recovery. The Census Bureau had projected the average household size would continue to fall to 2.53 this year. Instead, the average is likely to hit 2.63, a small but significant increase because it is a turnabout.”

Housing Watch – “Housing Bubble Was Whose Fault? Not the Fed’s, Says New Study” (5-7-10)

“Don’t blame the Federal Reserve for the country’s housing troubles. At least that’s what a controversial new study claims. Economic researchers from Harvard’s Kennedy School and the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania believe they’ve proved that reduced interest rates and lax regulations were not the primary cause of the housing bubble. The authors of the study instead point to the currently allowable mortgage interest tax deduction as the main culprit.”

Housing Wire – “GSE Wind-Down, Derivatives Reform Amendments Await Senate” (5-7-10)

“The US Senate added a number of amendments this week to S 3217, the Restoring American Financial Stability Act sponsored by Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT), that aim to reform regulation of the financial markets. Many more amendments await consideration by the Senate, which plans to return to voting on Tuesday.”

Housing Wire – “Despite Job Growth, Unemployment Rises to 9.9%” (5-7-10)

“Payrolls in the US added 290,000 workers in April, according to data released today by the Department of Labor (DOL) Bureau of Labor Statistics. It marks an increase from the 162,000 jobs added in March. Despite the gain in employment, the overall unemployment rate rose to 9.9%. Additionally, the U-6 measure of both un- and under-employment continued to rise — inching up to 17.1% in April, from 16.9% last month.”

Bloomberg - “Beazer Homes Sells Debt as Issuance Falls to Lowest This Year” (5-7-10)

“Sales of U.S. corporate bonds fell 86 percent this week to the lowest this year amid rising investor concern that Greece’s debt crisis will spread to other European countries and beyond. Beazer Homes USA Inc., the Atlanta-based homebuilder, sold $300 million of notes and Lennox International Inc., the maker of heating and air-conditioning systems, issued $200 million of debt to lead $2.55 billion in corporate bond offerings, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.”

Orange County Register – “Hear why builders now focus on price” (5-7-10)

“Homebuilding is on the upswing, which is not terribly surprising considering how slow things had been in recent years. So we asked Mark Buckland, CEO of Southern California builder CityVentures, what he was seeing in the new-home market. Buckland tells ocregister.com in a podcast interview that this is clearly no boom. The region’s home pricing has stabilized at levels that are as much as half off the peak. That’s because builders have to actively compete with the resale housing market. What’s helping builders’ bottom line is that land prices and construction costs have come down so low that new homes can now be very price competitive.”

Housing Wire – “Falling back to 2000: Homeownership rate sinks” (5-7-10)

“The nation’s homeownership rate fell to 67.1 percent in the first quarter, a rate not seen since first-quarter 2000, according to a report from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S Department of Commerce. The rate reached its peak in 2004, when it was at 69.2 percent for both the second and fourth quarters.”

Housing Wire – “Clash over NAR’s MLS rules for photos, disclosures” (5-7-10)

“Multiple listing services are asking the National Association of Realtors to stand behind them if they choose to require that brokers submit photos or property disclosure forms with their for-sale listings. Many MLSs have had such rules in place for years, particularly for photos. But NAR staff members say the trade group’s existing MLS policy does not expressly grant MLSs such authority.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, the Federal government declared the California wage cuts, which would have saved $74 miilion, to be in conflict with the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. Fannie Mae reported a first-quarter loss of $23.2 billion. The Labor Department reported that payrolls fell by 539,000 in April 2009.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 4/23/10

Friday, April 23rd, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

Existing home sales rose 6.8 percent in March. Mortgage origination volumes decreased 46 percent in 2009. US house prices dropped 0.2% from January to February. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are creating the Loan Modification Scam Prevention Network which will work to educate borrowers and take in complaints.

In The News:

NAR - “Existing-Home Sales Rise on Home Buyer Tax Credit and Favorable Market Conditions” (4-22-10)

“Existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 6.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.35 million units in March from 5.01 million in February, and are 16.1 percent above the 4.61 million-unit level in March 2009.”

Mortgage Bankers Association – “Mortgage Bankers’ Commercial/Multifamily Originations Down 46 Percent in 2009″ (4-22-10)

“Commercial and multifamily mortgage origination volumes decreased 46 percent in 2009 among repeat reporters, with mortgage bankers reporting $82.3 billion of closed commercial and multifamily loans, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s 2009 Commercial Real Estate/Multifamily Finance: Annual Origination Volume Summation.”

Los Angeles Times – “Little change in home loan rates, Freddie Mac reports” (4-22-10)

“The typical rate being offered this week for a 30-year fixed-rate home loan was unchanged at 5.07%, with borrowers paying 0.6% of the loan balance in upfront lender fees, Freddie Mac said Thursday. For 15-year fixed mortgages, the rate pulled back from 4.40% last week to 4.39% this week with 0.7% in upfront lender fees, according to the weekly survey of lenders by the big home-loan buyer.”

Housing Wire – “Obama Urges Support for Financial Reform Legislation” (4-22-10)

“He urged the adoption by Congress of a single reform bill that not only protects the financial sector and consumers alike, but gives shareholders more power in the financial system and brings ‘complex financial dealings out of the shadows.’ In particular, Obama praised the bill passed by a Senate panel this week that aims to bring greater transparency to derivatives trading.”

Housing Wire – “Home Prices Drop Again in FHFA Report” (4-22-10)

“US house prices dropped another 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis from January to February, following a 0.6% drop the month before, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index (HPI). While there have been scattered upward ticks since the 13.3% fall from the April 2007 peak, the curve on the double-dip might be taking shape as shown in the graph below.”

Orange County Register – “Durables Orders in U.S. Probably Rose as Home Sales Lag Behind” (4-22-10)

“Orders for long-lasting goods probably climbed in March for a fourth consecutive month, while sales of new homes increased from a record low, pointing to an uneven U.S. recovery. Bookings for durable goods rose 0.2 percent after a 0.9 percent February gain, according to the median forecast of 75 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. New-home purchases advanced 5.5 percent to a 325,000 annual rate from the prior month, another report may show.”

CNN - “New-home sales rise fastest in 47 years” (4-23-10)

“New home sales improved in March at the fastest single-month rate in 47 years, according to a government report released Friday, as buyers snatched up properties ahead of the tax credit that’s set to expire. New-home sales rose 26.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 411,000 last month, compared to an upwardly revised annual rate of 324,000 in February, the Census Bureau said. The gain snapped a four-month streak of declines.”

Housing Wire – “Fannie and Freddie Unite Against Mortgage Modification Scams” (4-23-10)

“A new coalition, led by Fannie Mae (FNM: 1.26 +1.61%) and Freddie Mac (FRE: 1.515 +1.00%), will launch a national campaign to prevent loan modification scams. The Loan Modification Scam Prevention Network also includes the Lawyer’s Committee for Civil Rights Under Law and NeighborWorks America, which is a network of community development and affordable housing organizations. The network will work to educate borrowers, take in complaint reports and coordinate with local, state and federal enforcement agencies.”

Housing Wire – “Flat Febasruary House Prices Spur Foreclosure Inventory Fears: RadarLogic” (4-23-10)

“House prices remained flat in February on both a month-over-month and year-over-year basis, according to the Radar Logic Residential Property Index (RPX). The 2% increase in the Western region RPX composite balanced the 2% decline in the Northeast and South RPX, keeping prices stable overall from last month. Transactions grew the most since last year in metropolitan areas that are hardest-hit with foreclosures, Radar Logic said, including Las Vegas, Chicago, Miami and Detroit.”

Bloomberg - “U.S. Homebuilders Rally as March Shows Sales Surge” (4-23-10)

“U.S. homebuilding stocks, led by Lennar Corp. and Pulte Group Inc., are headed to the biggest weekly gain since July as two reports showed sales are recovering from the depths of the housing-market collapse. New home sales increased 27 percent in March from the previous month to an annual pace of 411,000, the largest rise since recordkeeping began in 1963, the Commerce Department said today. Sales of existing homes jumped 6.7 percent to 5.35 million in March, the first increase in four months, the National Association of Realtors reported yesterday.”

Realty Times – “Conditions Versus Obligations” (4-23-10)

“A problem arises when Agents mistake conditions for objections. Agents often treat a condition as an objection and beat themselves up when they don’t get the transaction or contract signed. The definition of a condition is a valid reason for the prospect to not move forward. You still need to try all the techniques of handling the objection. You just need to realize that a condition is usually linked to their ability or authority to act now.”

Orange County Register – “Home prices up in 70% of O.C.” (4-23-10)

“66 of O.C.’s 83 ZIP codes had gains in their respective median selling price. Overall, prices were +14.0% vs. a year ago. Taking sales volume in consideration, home pricing is up in ZIPs representing 70% of the Orange County market.”

Orange County Register – “South Coast home sales up 21% over year” (4-23-10)

“The sales-weighted average of median price changes in South Coast ZIPs was -10% vs. a year ago. Price change in all Orange County beach towns ran +13% vs. a year ago.”

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 10/30/09

Friday, October 30th, 2009

Today’s News Synopsis:

The Census Bureau reports that rental vacancy rates for Q3 of 2009 were at 11.1 percent. According to RealtyTrac, Chico, California had a 98 percent increase in foreclosures from Q3 of 2008. The Attorney General claims that 60 percent of the nation’s pay-option ARMs, originated between 2004 and 2008, are located in California. Wilber Ross Jr. believes that commercial real estate is headed for a major collapse.

In The News:

NAR - “NAR Commends Congressional Action to Extend Higher Mortgage Loan Limits” (10-30-09)

“NAR commends both houses of Congress for their quick action in continuing these higher limits during a time for recovery in the housing market and national economy. The higher limits, along with the home buyer tax credit extension, are necessary to keep the markets moving at this critical time”

Inman - “California official warns of loan resets” (10-30-09)

“Economists estimate that about 1 million pay-option ARMs will reset in the next four years, ‘dramatically worsening the foreclosure crisis,’ the attorney general’s office said in a letter to lenders. With 58 percent of all pay-option ARMs originated between 2004 and 2008, California will be the “epicenter of this crisis,” the letter said.”

Housing Wire – “Rental Vancancy Rate Up, Homeowner Rate Steady: Census” (10-30-09)

“The rental vacancy rate was 11.1% in Q309, an increase from 9.9% in Q309 and 10.6% in Q209, according to the latest data released by the Census Bureau. The homeowner vacancy rate held steady at 2.5% from Q209 to Q309, which is lower than Q308’s 2.8%. The homeownership rate was 67.6%, nearly even with the 67.9% in Q309 and 67.4% in Q209.”

Housing Wire - “Foreclosures Growing in Suburbs and Secondary, says RealtyTrac” (10-30-09)

“Foreclosures are beginning to flare up in suburban and secondary metro markets for Q309, according to a report from RealtyTrac. In several states, foreclosure activities drifted toward new focal points, such as smaller towns with previously self-sustaining industries. Chico, California in Sacramento Valley, and agricultural hub, had a 98% increase in foreclosures from Q308, according to the report.”

Housing Wire – “Genworth Earns $45m with Savings on Loan Modifications” (10-30-09)

“Mortgage insurer Genworth Financial (GNW: 10.62 +4.32%) reported a net income of $45m in Q309, compared to a net loss of $258m in Q308. Despite the overall earnings, Genworth registered $116m in net operating losses of its US Mortgage Insurance (US MI) segment, compared to $121m in losses in Q308.”

Housing Wire – “California AG Wants Pay Option ARM Answers” (10-30-09)

“California homeowners hold nearly 60% of the nation’s pay option ARMs originated between 2004 and 2008, the attorney general’s office said. Nationally, about 1m of these loans are schedule to reset in the next four years, creating higher payments for many loans on the brink of negative equity.”

Bloomberg - “Wilbur Ross Sees ‘Huge’ Commercial Real Estate Crash” (10-30-09)

“‘All of the components of real estate value are going in the wrong direction simultaneously,’ said Ross, one of nine money managers participating in a government program to remove toxic assets from bank balance sheets. ‘Occupancy rates are going down. Rent rates are going down and the capitalization rate — the return that investors are demanding to buy a property — are going up.’”

Bloomberg - “Simon Property Says FFO Increased in Third Quarter” (10-30-09)

“Simon Property Group Inc., the biggest U.S. shopping mall owner, said third-quarter earnings excluding items rose as the company cut expenses. Funds from operations climbed to $473.1 million, or $1.38 a share, from $463.9 million, or $1.61, a year earlier, the Indianapolis-based company said in a statement today. This year’s per share earnings were diluted by the sale of more than 40 million common shares. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg predicted FFO of $1.32, according to the average of 16 estimates.”

Orange County Register – “More than half H.B. escrows are repos, short sales” (10-30-09)

The article contains 3 charts which include numbers for active listings and escrows in Huntington, CA.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 10/29/09

Thursday, October 29th, 2009

Today’s News Synopsis:

Moody’s estimates that prices will continue to decline until Q3 of 2010. According to Freddie Mac, interest rates on 30-year fixed rate loans have increased to 5.03 percent. The U.S. Census Bureau reports that the number of vacant properties rose to 18.7 million, but the homeownership rate has maintained at 67.6 percent.

In The News:

San Francisco Chronicle – “Economy growing but recovery could be at risk” (10-29-09)

“Federal support for spending on cars and homes drove the economy up 3.5 percent from July through September. But the government aid — from tax credits for home buyers to rebates for auto purchases — is only temporary. Consumer spending, which normally drives recoveries, is likely to weaken without it.”

Housing Wire – “House Price Declines Weigh on Alt-A, Jumbo RMBS Ratings: Moody’s” (10-29-09)

“Moody’s Investors Service on Thursday said it will begin taking ratings actions in Q409 as needed to account for updated assumptions underlying US residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) loss projections. The loss projection revisions come as Moody’s expects house prices to continue to decline to a Q310 trough. Based on recent loan loss severities, the rating agency will increase its projected lifetime loan losses for pools backing US Jumbo, Alt-A, Option ARM and subprime RMBS issued from ‘05 to ‘08.”

Housing Wire – “Sallie Mae To Lose $95M on Mortgage, Real Estate Sale” (10-29-09)

“Student loan giant SLM Corp. (SLM: 10.20 +1.09%) will recognize a loss of as much as $95m on the sale of mortgages and real estate-related assets this quarter, according to a Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filing.”

Housing Wire – “CIT Gets Second Private Capital Bailout” (10-29-09)

“CIT Group Inc. (CIT: 0.9146 -13.72%), a commercial lender offering financing to small and medium businesses, this week expanded an existing $3bn senior secured credit facility to obtain $4.5bn in new credit.”

Housing Wire – “Freddie Sees Weekly 30-Year Fixed Rate Pass 5%” (10-29-09)

“Freddie Mac’s (FRE: 1.2901 +11.22%) weekly survey put the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) interest rate at 5.03% with an average 0.7 point for the week ending Oct. 29, up from 5% in the previous week. A year ago, the rate was 6.46%.”

Bloomberg - “U.S. Home Vacancies Rise to 18.8 Million on Defaults” (10-29-09)

“The number of vacant properties, including foreclosures, residences for sale and vacation homes, rose from 18.4 million a year earlier and 18.7 million in the second quarter, the U.S. Census Bureau said in a report today. The record high was in the first quarter, when 18.95 million homes were vacant. The homeownership rate, meaning households that own their own residence, stood at 67.6 percent.”

Bloomberg - “BlackRock, T. Rowe Price Seek Fed Loans to Buy Bonds” (10-29-09)

“Mutual funds run by companies including BlackRock Inc. and T. Rowe Price Group Inc. have begun buying bonds through a $1 trillion government lending program after a June regulatory ruling cleared the way.”

Bloomberg - “PHH Targets Realogy for Mortgages, Keeps Merrill, New CEO Says” (10-29-09)

“PHH, the fourth-largest U.S. originator of mortgages directly to consumers, can win a greater share of Realogy customers because more than 130 lenders have failed since 2007 and remaining rivals keep changing underwriting rules, Selitto said in an interview Oct. 27. Merrill Lynch contributed 21 percent of 2008 originations at PHH and was sold in January to Bank of America, which has its own mortgage unit.”

Orange County Register – “UCLA sees 16% home-price gain in 2010″ (10-29-09)

“Double-digit housing appreciation will return to Orange County next year, with the median home price rising somewhere from 15.9% to 16.6%, UCLA economists forecast in a report released today.”

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 10/1/09

Thursday, October 1st, 2009

Today’s News Synopsis:

The NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index shows that sales increased by 6.4 percent in August. Research from Deutsche Bank Securities shows that 26 percent of borrowers owe more than their home is worth. A $250,000, four-bedroom, 1700 square feet, three-bathroom house in Los Angeles made the nation’s list of most searched for homes. A survey shows that realtors are in favor of expanding the $8,000 dollar tax credit. Regulation Z changes are now in effect. FHA first-time borrowers may see hike in down payment requirements according to new legislation introduced.  Realtors are also interested in expanding first-time tax credit to repeat buyers. Does that mean investors? One could only be so hopeful.

In The News:

NAR - “Record Streak Continues for Pending Home Sales” (10-1-09)

“The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in August, rose 6.4 percent to 103.8 from a reading of 97.6 in July, and is 12.4 percent above August 2008 when it was 92.4. The index is at the highest level since March 2007 when it was 104.5.”

Bloomberg - “Leaving Affordable Mortgage May Become Winning Gambit” (10-1-09)

“In the U.S., 26 percent of borrowers owe more than their home is worth, said Karen Weaver, global head of securitization research for New York-based Deutsche Bank Securities. In parts of California, Florida and Nevada, it’s as high as 75 percent.”

Inman - “30-year fixed rate below 5% again” (10-1-09)

“Rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages for borrowers with good credit fell below 5 percent this week for the first time since May, Freddie Mac said in releasing the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey.”

Inman - “Lenders want one set of rules” (10-1-09)

“A draft bill floated by Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., would create an agency along the lines of the proposal put forward by the Obama administration in June, while attempting to address some lending-industry concerns. Unlike the Obama administration’s proposal, for example, Frank’s bill would not give the agency the power to require that lenders offer ‘plain vanilla’ mortgages.”

Orange County Register – “Property tax revenues flat nationwide” (10-1-09)

“The Census Bureau’s quarterly count of state and local government collections nationwide of taxes shows property-related taxes (that on land and structures) as well as personal propert levies) for the second quarter at $81.86 billion — the largest slice tracked by Census — and flat vs. a year ago.”

Realty Times – “Title, Escrow Services Necessary” (10-1-09)

“Title companies are hired, in part, to issue title insurance protection for home buyers and lenders. Lenders require the service to protect them against loss resulting from claims by others against your new home. The title company investigates the title to make sure it is clear of any encumbrances, such as liens or judgments, forgeries or fraud and any other title anomalies and then issues a policy to protect you from any claims that turn up later. Because title searches are conducted each time the home changes hands or, perhaps, during a refinancing, the searches rarely turn up title claims, but you have to pay for the search.”

Los Angeles Times – “Long Beach property joins the list of most-searched-for U.S. homes online” (10-1-09)

“Priced at $250,000, the four-bedroom, three-bathroom house with 1,768 square feet on 0.15 acres (6,650 square feet) continues to make the list.”

Housing Wire – “Regulation Z Changes Are Here” (10-1-09)

“The Federal Reserve’s new Regulation Z statutes went into effect Thursday, after more than a year of preparations by the mortgage industry. Regulation Z is a truth in lending regulation meant to protect consumers who buy higher-priced mortgages — those loans with annual percentage rates (APR) above the average prime offer rate for a comparable transaction by at least 1.5 percentage points for first mortgages or 3.5 percentage points for second mortgages.”

Housing Wire – “GSE REO Portfolio Near 100,000″ (10-1-09)

“Freddie’s portfolio is nearly 35,000 properties, while Fannie’s is closing in on double that figure at nearly 64,000. While the rate of growth in the two portfolios has declined, Freddie acknowledges it expects to experience further losses from REO properties.”

Housing Wire – “Realtors Favor Expansion of Tax Credit to Repeat Buyers” (10-1-09)

“Realtors indicated in a recent survey the first-time homebuyer tax credit up to $8,000 has had a significant impact on spurring consumer interest in getting into the housing market. Some even called for an expansion of the program past its current expiration date and to homeowners that do not yet qualify.”

Bloomberg - “FHA Borrowers May Need Bigger Down Payments in Bill” (10-1-09)

“Legislation introduced in the U.S. House of Representatives would require higher down payments from borrowers seeking federally backed loans as lawmakers try to prop up the Federal Housing Administration’s insurance fund.”

The Atlantic – “OCC Report Shows Mortgage Modification Trend And Woes” (10-1-09)

“As the chart below shows, in the first quarter of 2009 principal reduction was only used 3.1% of the time. In the second quarter, however, that percentage increased to 10%. That’s a pretty drastic increase, with one-in-ten modifications now reducing principal.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, FHA was given $300 billion dollars for a new foreclosure prevention program. The MBA’s weekly survey showed that mortgage applications had decreased by 28.4 percent from the prior year. Warren Buffett invested $3 billion dollars into General Electric. Foreclosures tripled in Los Angles during the third quarter.

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