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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 8/23/10

Monday, August 23rd, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

The CBIA reports 2,454 new homes and condominiums were closed statewide in June, compared to 3,848 a year earlier. A survey from Trulia shows that 68% of renters believe they will have to wait at least two years before even considering buying a home. According to HUD, 616,839 HAMP modifications have been canceled and 434,716 modifications have been made permanent since the program began. The Congressional Budget Office expects the Troubled Asset Relief Program to cost a total of $66bn.

In The News:

Daily Bulletin - “Uncertain times” (8-19-10)

“Norris said a larger number of expensive homes thrown into the mix of homes sold this year may be skewing the median price up, rather than an overall price increase in homes. Norris also said home affordability is ‘off the charts’ but it does not necessarily translate to a greater demand to buy homes. Because of the real estate crash, more people are afraid to go to the finish line with home purchases, he said.”

CBIA - “California New-Home Market Continues Struggle in June, CBIA Announces” (8-23-10)

“The monthly CBIA/Hanley Wood Market Intelligence (HWMI) New-Home Sales and Pricing Report showed that statewide new-home closings in June were off 36 percent from a year ago. During the month, 2,454 new homes and condominiums were closed across the state, compared to 3,848 a year earlier. Closings of single-family homes were down by 17 percent, while sales of townhomes were off by 57 percent and sales of condominiums were 67 percent lower than a year ago.”

Orange County Register – “Landlords pray for jobs” (8-21-10)

“I’m still concerned about future job growth and global market conditions that we don’t have control over. Unfortunately, our improvement is a condition of the housing and credit markets and reduced multifamily inventory, not significant job growth. Would-be home buyers who are no longer able to qualify to purchase a home, former home owners who lost their homes and new wage earners are sustaining our improved fundamentals. We will need consistent and sustainable job growth going forward.”

Orange County Register – “A good time to be a landlord?” (8-22-10)

“A new survey by Trulia.com shows that 1 in 4 renters say they’ll never purchase a home, and of those who will, 68% say it’ll take more than a couple of years to happen.”

Housing Wire – “Housing’s Second Leg Down” (8-23-10)

“Home prices have fallen 34% from their peak in the middle of 2006, according to Standard & Poor’s HPI data — but is that enough? Or is there further to go? How much further could we fall?”

Housing Wire – “HAMP Trial Cancelations Catching up to Permanent Modifications” (8-23-10)

“The Making Home Affordable Program (HAMP) initiated 1.3m trials as of July 2010, but is having difficulty retaining program participants through the process of making their modifications permanent. According to the July Servicer Performance Report released by the US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), 616,839 modifications have been canceled while 434,716 modifications have been made permanent throughout the program’s lifetime.”

Housing Wire – “TARP Losses Recalculated to $66bn as GSE Outlook Improves” (8-23-10)

“The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected Friday the total cost of Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) over its lifetime would be $66bn. This is down from the $109bn lifetime cost projected in March. Outlays for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will fall from $96bn in 2009 to $41bn this year, the CBO estimates, mostly because the two entities are expected to recognize fewer losses on their mortgage investments and guarantees.”

Housing Wire – “Econoday Reports Swings in Housing Starts Due To Multifamily Volatility” (8-23-10)

“July housing starts rose 1.7% to 546,000 from June’s revised figure of 537,000, which is the lowest level since October. The June revision and volatility in the multifamily component led to the monthly gain, according to Mark Rogers, senior economist at the Calif.-based research firm.”

Housing Wire – “Monday Morning Cup of Coffee” (8-23-10)

“The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) released Friday a list of Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) performance evaluations for 39 national banks and insured federal branches of foreign banks. Of the banks, nine received an outstanding rating, 30 received a satisfactory rating and none needed to improve. None were of substantial noncompliance.”

Housing Wire – “Strengthening CRE Market Pushes Defeasance Levels Up: Moody’s” (8-23-10)

“Moody’s said loans originally secured by multi-family properties saw the highest level of defeasance during the first six months, accounting for 46% of total defeasance. Retail properties represented 22% of all defeasance for the period with lodging properties at 17%. And 61% of all defeased loans during the period had two years or less remaining on the loan. Defeasance activity is when a borrower in a commercial real estate securitization substitutes some type of capital-generating collateral – often Treasury securities – in lieu of a hard payment.”

Bloomberg - “Bernanke Must Raise Benchmark Rate 2 Points, Rajan Says” (8-23-10)

“Raghuram Rajan accurately warned central bankers in 2005 of a potential financial crisis if banks lost confidence in each other. Now the International Monetary Fund’s former chief economist says the Federal Reserve should consider raising rates, even as almost 10 percent of the U.S. workforce remains unemployed.”

Bloomberg - “Housing Slide in U.S. Threatens to Drag Economy Into Recession” (8-23-10)

“‘If foreclosures continue to mount and depress home prices, that could send the economy back into a recession,’ said Celia Chen, an economist who tracks the industry for Moody’s Analytics Inc.”

Orange County Register – “‘How to torpedo your short sale’” (8-23-10)

“Many of the lenders won’t pay past due HOA dues, and the short sale can’t be closed without bringing the HOA dues current. If you can, keep your HOA dues current or plan to bring money to close to pay for them.  Sometimes the lender will pay them, sometimes the buyer will, and sometimes we need can succesfully negotiate the amount, but late HOA dues can torpedo a short sale on your Orange County home.”

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor event calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 6/24/10

Thursday, June 24th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

According to the CIRB, building permits were pulled for 3,088 housing units in May. Statistics from Freddie Mac show the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.69% last week. Several large banks, such as JP Morgan, are hiring thousands of mortgage officers in preparation to make more loans. TIGTA estimates the IRS awarded $26.7 million to fraudulent home buyer tax credit claims.

In The News:

CBIA - “California Housing Production Up in May, CBIA Announces” (6-24-10)

“According to statistics compiled by the Construction Industry Research Board (CIRB), permits were pulled for 3,088 total housing units in May, up 4 percent from the same month a year ago but down 6 percent from April. Permits for single-family homes totaled 1,902, down 19 percent from May 2009 and down 17 percent from the previous month, while multifamily permits totaled 1,186, up 87 percent from a year ago and up 17 percent from April.”

Market Watch – “Fixed-rate mortgages, 5-year ARMs hit lows: Freddie Mac” (6-24-10)

“The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.69% for the week ending June 24, down from 4.75% last week and 5.42% a year ago. Fifteen-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 4.13%, down from 4.20% last week and 4.87% a year ago.”

CNN - “Banks: We’re hiring so we can make more home loans” (6-24-10)

“Several banks are gearing up to do a whole lot more mortgage lending in the future. Even though new homes sales were at a historical low in May and the housing market in general is in the doldrums, these banks are hiring hundreds of loan originators, getting ready for what they believe will be a significant pick-up in lending. JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500), one of the nation’s largest lenders, is in the midst of hiring 1,200 mortgage officers.”

New York Times – “Fed Leaves Rates, Citing Overseas Threats” (6-24-10)

“The Federal Reserve’s policy-making arm said on Wednesday that it had decided to keep short-term interest rates near zero for ‘an extended period,’ citing challenges to economic growth, including the effect of new financial troubles abroad.”

Housing Wire – “Treasury Watchdog Says 1,295 Prisoners Claimed Homebuyer Tax Credit” (6-24-10)

“The Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration (TIGTA) released its latest interim audit (download here) on Internal Revenue Service (IRS) efforts to identify and prevent fraudulent homebuyer tax credits. All told, TIGTA’s investigation estimates the IRS paid out $26.7m in erroneous credits, less than 1% of the estimated $13.6bn in homebuyer tax credits claimed. Of the approximately 1.2m individuals who claimed the credit, TIGTA estimates 14,132 — about 1.1% — are erroneous or fraudulent claims.”

Housing Wire – “AIA Economist: Desperate Architects Find Themselves in Heated Bidding Wars” (6-24-10)

“We’ve certainly seen the pendulum swing in the other direction, probably even further back than where it started at over the last five years. Homes have gotten smaller. There is much more emphasis on not over investing or over improving. There’s a greater concern over affordability. What can I sell this for when I want to sell it and not trying to over extend the household in this economic environment.”

Housing Wire – “Regulators Find More than Half of Mortgage Modifications in Trouble Again” (6-24-10)

“Of the more than 1m modifications done in 2008 and 2009, 53% are either delinquent or in foreclosure again in Q110, according to a report from Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) and the Office of Thrift Supervision (OTS).”

Housing Wire – “FHFA Monthly 30-Year Mortage Rate Report Unchanged in May” (6-24-10)

“In its report, the FHFA said the average interest rate for a conventional, 30-year fixed-rate purchase mortgage with a principal of $417,000 or less was 5.12% in May, even from last month’s report.”

Bloomberg - “Betting Who’s Right on Home Prices: Baker vs Maki” (6-24-10)

“Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital, says the worst is over for the U.S. housing sector. Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, expects another painful decline. They reflect an almost even split among forecasters on the outlook for residential real estate, and whichever side turns out to be right will have made a call on more than just home prices. Housing will play a crucial role in the direction of the nation’s economy and global financial markets, just as it triggered a two-year recession that erased more than 8 million U.S. jobs and $37 trillion from world stock markets.”

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 6/17/10

Thursday, June 17th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

According to the CBIA, sales in new-home communities of 10 units or more were 32 percent below April 2009. MDA DataQuick reports 8,264 homes closed escrows in the nine-county Bay Area last month.  Statistics from Freddie Mac show the average 30-year frm rate increased to 4.75 percent this week. The number of suspected mortgage fraud activities reported to law enforcement grew 5% during fiscal year 2009.

In The News:

CBIA - “California New-Home Market Down in April, CBIA Announces” (6-17-10)

“The monthly CBIA/Hanley Wood Market Intelligence (HWMI) New-Home Sales and Pricing Report showed that sales in new-home communities of 10 units or more were 32 percent below April 2009. During April, 2,203 new homes and condominiums were sold in the subdivisions tracked by Costa Mesa-based HWMI, compared to 3,218 a year earlier. Sales of single-family homes were down by 34 percent, while sales of townhomes and ‘plexes’ – duplexes, triplexes, etc. – were off by 33 percent and sales of condominiums were 22 percent lower than a year ago.”

DQNews - “Bay Area $500K-Plus Home Sales Jump; Median Price Tops $400K” (6-17-10)

“Sales rose across the Bay Area last month in many mid- to high-end neighborhoods, helping to push the median sale price over $400,000 for the first time in 21 months. But as tax credits, low mortgage rates and an ample supply of homes for sale fueled the $500,000-plus market, sales fell in many affordable inland areas where investors and first-time buyers faced a dwindling inventory of low-cost foreclosures, a real estate information service reported. Last month a total of 8,264 homes closed escrows in the nine-county Bay Area, up 18.0 percent from 7,003 in April and up 11.0 percent from 7,447 in May 2009, according to MDA DataQuick of San Diego.”

Wall Street Journal – “Shadow Problem: Home Price Declines May Land in Cities That Largely Avoided Them” (6-17-10)

“A new report shows that the ‘shadow inventory’ of homes, with delinquent mortgages that have yet to go through the foreclosure process, is growing fastest in areas that have so far avoided the biggest home-price declines, according to a report by ratings agency Standard & Poor’s. Mortgage companies could be forced to reduce their prices on these foreclosued homes as they work through that supply, and as more of those homes sell, that could continue to put pressure on prices. At the top of the list: the New York City area, where at the current rate it would take 103 months to clear the shadow inventory of loans that are more than 90 days delinquent or in foreclosure. That’s nearly 3.5 times the national average.”

San Francisco Chronicle - “Freddie Mac: Mortgage rates up from yearly low” (6-17-10)

“Rates on 30-year fixed mortgages backed off from yearly lows this week, but still remain historically cheap. Mortgage finance company Freddie Mac says the average rate rose to 4.75 percent, up from 4.72 percent last week. The rate hit 4.71 percent in December, the lowest since Freddie Mac began keeping records in 1971.”

Housing Wire – “Suspected Mortgage Fraud Reports to FBI Grew 5% in 2009″ (6-17-10)

“The number of suspected mortgage fraud activities reported to law enforcement grew 5% during fiscal year 2009 to 67,190, according to the latest yearly mortgage fraud report from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). FBI mortgage fraud pending investigations rose 71% from fiscal year 2008, while Department of Housing and Urban Development – Office of Inspector General (HUD-OIG) pending investigations rose 31% in the same time. Of all pending FBI mortgage fraud investigations during FY 2009, 66% involved dollar losses totaling more than $1m.”

Housing Wire - “55-75% of HAMP Mods Could Re-Default under Fitch Projections” (6-17-10)

“As of May 2010, Fitch noted that roughly 15% of non-agency RMBS loans by balance — including nearly 35% of RMBS subprime loans — received at least one modification. This is up from 10% and 25% respectively in September 2009. Fitch currently expects anywhere from 55% to 75% of modified loans within RMBS to re-default after 12 months.”

Bloomberg - “Mortgage-Fraud Crackdown in U.S. Brings 485 Arrests” (6-17-10)

“Authorities arrested 485 people since March in the largest nationwide mortgage-fraud crackdown of its kind, the U.S. Justice Department said. During the enforcement effort, 1,215 criminal defendants responsible for $2.3 billion in losses faced some type of legal action, the department said. The crackdown, dubbed Operation Stolen Dreams, also included 191 civil cases resulting in the recovery of more than $147 million.”

Inman - “5 real estate opportunities” (6-17-10)

“In 2001, 42 percent of homebuyers were first-timers. That number dropped to 36 percent at the peak of the seller’s market in 2006. Today, first-time buyers represent 47 percent of all buyers, the highest percentage in this century. Opportunity: To take advantage of this trend, actively prospect for listings in first-time-buyer areas. To determine which areas are the best to prospect, watch the sales board in your office or the sales report from your local multiple listing service.”

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 5/20/10

Thursday, May 20th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

According to MDA DataQuick, a total of 7,003 homes closed escrows in the nine-county Bay Area last month. CBIA reports that California families earning the median-income could have afforded 60.8 percent of the new and existing homes that were sold during the first quarter of 2010. Statistics from Freddie Mac show 30-year fixed-rate mortgage decreased 4.84 percent this week. CoreLogic predicts average national home prices will fall 0.5 percent in the next 12 months.

In The News:

DQNews - “Mixed results for Bay Area April home sales” (5-20-10)

“Last month a total of 7,003 homes closed escrows in the nine-county Bay Area, up 0.2 percent from 6,992 in March but down 1.9 percent from 7,139 in April 2009, according to MDA DataQuick of San Diego. On average, Bay Area sales have risen 4.2 percent between March and April each year since 1988, when DataQuick’s statistics begin. Last month’s sales tally was 24.5 percent below the April average of 9,278 sales since 1988, and was the second-lowest for an April since 1995.”

CBIA - “California Housing Affordability Increases in First Quarter, CBIA Announces” (5-20-10)

“Housing affordability in California increased overall in the first quarter of 2010, but 13 of the state’s 28 metropolitan areas included in the report saw decreases, the California Building Industry Association said today.  On a statewide basis, the HOI found that a family earning the median-income could have afforded 60.8 percent of the new and existing homes that were sold during the first quarter, up from 56.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009. The report also found that California is now home to seven of the top ten least affordable markets in the nation.”

CNN - “Problem bank list hits 775″ (5-20-10)

“The government’s list of troubled banks climbed to its highest level since 1992 in the first quarter, although the pace of growth moderated, according to a government report published Thursday. The numbers, published as part of a broader survey on the nation’s banking system by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, revealed that the number of banks at risk of failing climbed to 775 during the first quarter.”

Orange County Register – “Mortgage rate at 5-month low” (5-20-10)

“30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.84 percent — down from last week when it averaged 4.93 percent and the lowest since Dec. 10. Last year at this time, the 30-year fixed averaged 4.82 percent.”

Inman - “4 markets where prices will fall hardest” (5-20-10)

“National home prices were up 1.7 percent in March when compared to a year ago, but will probably give back some of those gains in the year ahead with the expiration of the federal homebuyer tax credit, data aggregator CoreLogic said in releasing its latest home-price index. While 51 out of the 100 largest markets saw year-over-year price appreciation in March — up from 42 markets in February — CoreLogic predicts average national home prices will fall 0.5 percent in the next 12 months.”

Housing Wire – “New Survey Finds 59% of Homeowners Would Not Consider Strategic Default” (5-20-10)

“Of those homeowners surveyed by Harris Interactive, 59% said they would not consider walking away from their mortgage no matter how far underwater they sank. Harris conducted the survey of more than 2,500 adults, including 1,690 homeowners from May 10-12. The survey was conducted for the online foreclosure marketplaces, Trulia.com and RealtyTrac.”

Housing Wire – “FBI Mortgage Fraud Investigations Jump 400% in Five Years” (5-20-10)

“FBI investigations of mortgage fraud increased 400% in 2009, compared with five years earlier, according to an Office of Thrift Supervision (OTS) report on fraud and insider abuse (download here). The FBI investigated more than 2,100 mortgage fraud cases in 2009. The OTS said at least 63% of all pending FBI mortgage fraud investigations during fiscal year 2008 involved dollar losses of more than $1m each.”

Bloomberg - “Mortgage-Bond Yields Guiding Loans Decline to Six-Month Low” (5-20-10)

“Yields on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage securities that guide home-loan rates fell to the lowest in almost six months, as the response of European authorities to the sovereign-debt crisis drove investors to the relative safety of U.S. government-related debt. Fannie Mae’s current-coupon 30-year fixed-rate mortgage bonds tumbled 0.10 percentage point to 4.05 percent as of 9:55 a.m. in New York, down from 4.67 percent on April 5 and the lowest since Nov. 30, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.”

Bloomberg - “Idle Capacity in U.S. Economy Keeps Fed Asset Sales on Hold” (5-20-10)

“Officials led by Chairman Ben S. Bernanke raised their forecasts for growth this year while predicting the rebound will be slower than past recoveries from deep recessions as consumers contend with elevated unemployment and a decline in home values. Some expressed concern the Greek debt crisis could shake U.S. financial markets, curbing growth.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, the NAR predicted that commercial real estate would remain week for the remainder of 2009. The House of Representatives voted 367 to 54 to pass the Helping Families Save Their Homes Act. Toll Brothers Inc., the largest U.S. builder of luxury homes, said fiscal second-quarter revenue fell 51 percent.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 5/13/10

Thursday, May 13th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

According to RealtyTrac, the total number of national foreclosures decreased by 9 percent in March. Economists Lawrence Yun and Mark Zandi predict that mortgage rates will remain historically low over the next few years. CAR reports the minimum household income needed to purchase an entry-level home at $246,270 in California in the first quarter of 2010 was $41,540. Statistics from Freddie Mac show the average rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage dipped to 4.93 percent.

In The News:

The Atlantic – “Foreclosures Declined 9% in April” (5-13-10)

“Fewer Americans lost their homes in April, though the numbers are still alarmingly high at 333,837 foreclosed properties nationwide, according to foreclosure data specialist RealtyTrac. This number was 9% lower than the record high hit in March. So April’s decline, while relatively good news, doesn’t quite get foreclosures back down to pre-March levels.”

NAR - “Two Economists Project Improving Housing Market but Timing Uncertain” (5-13-10)

“Both Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, and Mark Zandi, chief economist and co-founder of Moody’s Economy.com, agreed that job creation is key to an economic and housing recovery, with job creation expected as the year progresses, but they differed somewhat on the impact that foreclosures will have on home price stabilization. Both project that mortgage interest rates will remain historically low, the availability of jumbo loans will improve and home sales will rise over the next few years.”

CBIA - “California New-Home Sales Rise From February, CBIA Announces” (5-13-10)

“The monthly CBIA/Hanley Wood Market Intelligence (HWMI) New-Home Sales and Pricing Report showed that sales in new-home communities of 10 units or more were 13 percent above February, but fell 31 percent below March 2009. During March, 2,189 new homes and condominiums were sold in the subdivisions tracked by Costa Mesa-based HWMI, compared to 1,938 in February and 3,192 in March 2009. Sales of single-family homes were up by 5 percent from the previous month, but down 36 percent from the same month a year ago. Sales of townhomes and ‘plexes’ – duplexes, triplexes, etc. – rose 24 percent from February but were off by 32 percent from March 2009, while sales of condominiums were up 37 percent from the previous month, but were 16 percent lower than a year ago.”

CAR - “Entry-level housing affordability stood at 66 percent in Q1 2010″ (5-13-10)

“The minimum household income needed to purchase an entry-level home at $246,270 in California in the first quarter of 2010 was $41,540, based on an adjustable effective interest rate of 4.33 percent and assuming a 10 percent down payment. First-time buyers typically purchase a home equal to 85 percent of the prevailing median price. The monthly payment including taxes and insurance was $1,380 for the fourth quarter of 2010. At $41,540, the minimum qualifying income was $3,910 greater than a year earlier when households needed $37,630 to qualify for a loan on an entry-level home.”

Sign On San Diego – “Mortgage rates drop to lowest level this year” (5-13-10)

“Mortgage rates fell this week to the lowest level of the year, as rates fell on U.S. government securities. Fixed mortgage rates closely track interest rates paid on long-term Treasury bonds. The average rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage dipped to 4.93 percent this week from 5 percent a week earlier, Freddie Mac said Thursday. It was the lowest level since mid-December, when rates averaged 4.81 percent.”

Housing Wire – “RealtyTrac’s Daren Blomquist Calls for Shadow Inventory Clearance” (5-13-10)

“I think the year-over-year decrease in national foreclosure activity in April is a definite sign that there is an end in sight, but on the other hand the record REO numbers show that we’ve got a lot of backlogged inventory stopped up in the foreclosure process that needs to be cleared before we can return to a balanced, healthy market.”

Housing Wire – “Dodd Bill Amendment Will Assign Credit-Rating Agencies to Deals” (5-13-10)

“The US Senate today approved in a 64-35 vote an amendment by Sen. Al Franken (D-MN) on credit ratings to be added to S 3217, the Restoring American Financial Stability Act sponsored by Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT). The amendment would instruct the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to establish a self-regulatory organization to assign credit-rating agencies (CRAs) to provide initial credit ratings on financial products. It essentially creates a board to assign CRAs to securities, to prevent firms from ‘shopping around’ for the highest ratings.”

Orange County Register – “O.C. construction recovery 6 years away” (5-13-10)

“Orange County won’t get back to pre-recession levels of employment in the construction business until 2016, according the Cal State Long Beach’s 2010 forecast released today. Construction employment hit 107,175 at the peak in 2006. The forecast projects employment in the sector will drop to 66,691 this year before bottoming at 65,312 in 2011.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, the national share of home sales above $750,000 fell from 4.4 percent in 2007 to approximately 2.3 percent in 2009. The number of U.S. households faced with losing their homes to foreclosure jumped 32 percent in April 2009. General Growth Properties received approval for a $400 billion dollar loan to aid their recovery from bankruptcy. Fitch Ratings predicted that home prices would by 36 percent within 18 months of May 2009.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 4/26/10

Monday, April 26th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

The CIRB reports that permits were pulled for 3,714 total California housing units in March. Commercial mortgage delinquencies fell to 0.63% in Q1 of 2010. The MARI saw a 50 percent increase in appraisal fraud in 2009. Homeownership rates in Q1 of 2010 decreased to the lowest levels since 2000.

Looking Back:

CBIA - “Housing Starts Climb for Third Straight Month in March, CBIA Announces” (4-26-10)

“According to statistics compiled by the Construction Industry Research Board (CIRB), permits were pulled for 3,714 total housing units in March, up 4 percent from the same month a year ago and up 7 percent from February. Permits for single-family homes totaled 2,231, up 17 percent from March 2009 and up 24 percent from the previous month, while multifamily permits totaled 1,483, down 11 percent from a year ago and down 12 percent from February.”

Bloomberg – “Fed May Keep Rates Low as Tight Credit Impedes Small Businesses” (4-26-10)

“Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said in an April 7 speech that while a U.S. economic recovery is under way, ‘we are far from being out of the woods,’ in part because of tight credit.”

Bloomberg - “Bankers Said ‘Anything’ to Get High Rating, S&P Ex-Analyst Says” (4-26-10)

“Just past midnight on May 3, 2005, Standard & Poor’s analyst Chui Ng e-mailed co-workers to broker a solution to demands by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. bankers that he said violated two or more of the ratings company’s internal guidelines. Goldman Sachs was adding $200 million in debt at the ‘last minute’ to a $1.5 billion bond pool called Adirondack Ltd., Ng wrote. That meant the New York investment bank would originate 13 percent of the pool itself, two-and-a-half times the 5 percent limit set by S&P.”

Housing Wire - “Xerox Aims to Lead Originators into Paperless Mortgage World” (4-26-10)

“The latest venture in mortgages for Xerox Corp. (XRX: 11.35 +0.27%) is a move to make the name synonymous with paperless electronic mortgage origination, according to the company. The company is now focusing efforts on its eVault, an off-site digital storage repository for electronic loan documents, as a way to try to grab more market share in paperless origination. Currently the company holds more than 35,000 mortgages in the vault. The software-as-a-service (SaaS) is offered on a per-loan basis, which the company said makes it more affordable for originators with varying levels of loan volume.”

Housing Wire – “California Commercial Mortgage Delinquencies Drop in Q110″ (4-26-10)

“In California, the delinquency rate of commercial mortgages fell to 0.63% in Q110, a 34-basis point (bp) drop from 0.97% at the end of 2009, according to the California Mortgage Bankers Association (CMBA). On a dollar basis, the delinquent rate reached 0.63%, which translates to a 0.29% delinquent rate on a loan-volume basis. Of the more than 6,400 commercial loans surveyed by the CMBA, 19 loans totaling $344.6m were more than 90 days delinquent. The survey included 16 mortgage banking firms and $54.7bn in commercial and multi-family loans.”

Housing Wire – “Appraisal Fraud Jumps 50% in 2009: MARI” (4-26-10)

“The Mortgage Asset Research Institute (MARI), whose subscribers represent 70% of the mortgage finance space, reports today appraisal fraud is taking a larger proportion of trickery alleged in suspicious activity reports (SARs) filed with the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN). In 2008, suspected appraisal/valuation fraud stood at 22% of mortgage fraud reports. In 2009, that jumped to 33%, said MARI in a conference call on its yearly results.”

Housing Wire – “Monday Morning Cup of Coffee” (4-26-10)

“Regulators closed seven banks Friday — all based in the state of Illinois — at a total cost to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) of nearly $974m.”

Housing Wire - “Homeownership Hits Lowest Rates Since 2000″ (4-26-10)

“Fewer Americans own homes in Q110 than in any quarter since the beginning of 2000, according to data from the Census Bureau. The seasonally adjusted homeownership rate fell to an average of 67.2% percent of qualifying Americans who own homes in Q110, dropping 1bp from 67.3% in Q409. It was the lowest rate since the 67.1% mark in the first quarter of 2000. The rate reached its height in Q105 at 69.2%, according to the Census.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, Existing, single-family home sales increased 63.8 percent in one month. 19.1 million homes stood unoccupied in the first quarter of 2009. Simon Property Group attempted to buy General Growth prior to its bankruptcy. Rent rates decreased in 19 of the 23 O.C. cities.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 3/23/10

Tuesday, March 23rd, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

According to the NAR, existing home sales decreased by 0.6 percent last month. The California senate has approved of a new homebuyer tax credit, which awaits approval from Governor Schwarzenegger. Nothaft claims the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will reach 5.6 percent by the end of 2010.  The Los Angeles-based home builder, KB Homes, experienced a profit loss beyond which was previously expected.

In The News:

NAR - “February Existing-Home Sales Ease with Mixed Conditions Around the Country” (3-23-10)

“Existing-home sales, which are finalized transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, slipped 0.6 percent nationally to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.02 million units in February from 5.05 million in January, but are 7.0 percent higher than the 4.69 million-unit pace in February 2009.”

CBIA - “Legislature Approves New Homebuyer Tax Credit” (3-23-10)

“The committee quickly acted on the proposal and sent it to the full Senate, where it passed by a 29-1 vote. It moved immediately to the Assembly, which approved the legislation minutes later by a 67-2 vote. It now awaits the Governor’s signature, which is expected Thursday since the proposal came from Schwarzenegger during his January State of the State address. Since then, he has made several public pitches for the tax credit, and last week sent a stern letter to legislative leaders seeking action on the tax credit and other proposals in his economic package.”

Bloomberg - “KB Home Reports Loss on Lower Revenue; Shares Fall” (3-23-10)

“KB Home, the Los Angeles-based homebuilder that sells to first-time buyers, reported a wider fiscal first-quarter loss than analysts expected as revenue declined and order growth slowed. The net loss in the quarter ended Feb. 28 was $54.7 million, or 71 cents a share, KB Home said in a statement today. It narrowed from a loss of $58.1 million, or 75 cents, a year earlier because of fewer inventory writedowns. Analysts predicted a loss of 41 cents a share, according to the average of 11 estimates in a Bloomberg survey. Revenue fell 14 percent to $264 million, the company said.”

Realty Times – “Real Estate Outlook: Freddie Mac Predicts Positive Recovery” (3-23-10)

“Notehalf’s econometric models point to expansion of the U.S. economy in the 3.3 to 3.5 percent range, as measured by the Gross Domestic Product (or GDP) through 2011. In economic terms, that’s sort of a ‘not too hot, not too cold’ scenario that helps keep interest rates low and inflation under control. Nothaft forecasts average 30-year mortgage rates around 5.6 percent by the end of the year – up from today’s rates but still in historically low territory and not high enough to seriously constrain housing demand or sales.”

Housing Wire – “Morgan Stanley Raises $370m to Invest in Private Equity Real Estate Funds” (3-23-10)

“Investment bank Morgan Stanley (MS: 29.53 -0.24%) is looking to seize opportunities in investing in private equity real estate funds with its recently created Phoenix Global Real Estate Secondaries platform. And so far, Phoenix is seeing success as the initial $250m capital-raising target exceeded the mark with an additional $120m raised.”

Housing Wire – “House Republicans Want to Wind Down GSEs” (3-23-10)

“Republicans in the House of Representatives, led by Financial Services Committee ranking member Rep. Spencer Bachus (R-AL), authored a list of principals they wish to see as part of ‘immediate’ legislative efforts to plan for the future of the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs).”

Looking Back:

One year ago, the NAR reported a 5.1 percent increase in existing home sales within 1 month. Commercial and multifamily mortgage debt increased by $23 billion during the 4th quarter of 2008. The country’s 10 largest banks owned a total of $327.6 billion in commercial mortgages.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 3/17/10

Wednesday, March 17th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

The CBIA reports that new home sales decreased by 12 percent from January of 2009. Mortgage loan application decreased by 1.9 percent from last week. HOPE NOW made over 99,000 modifications in January, and HAMP made over 50,000.

In The News:

CBIA - “California New-Home Market Begins 2010 Still in the Red, CBIA Announces” (3-17-10)

“The monthly CBIA/Hanley Wood Market Intelligence (HWMI) New-Home Sales and Pricing Report showed that sales in new-home communities of 10 units or more were 12 percent below January 2009. This was a slight improvement from the 15 percent year-over-year decline in December, but was still a lackluster pace. During January, 1,886 new homes and condominiums were sold in the subdivisions tracked by Costa Mesa-based HWMI, compared to 2,137 in January 2009. Sales of single-family homes were down by 17 percent, while sales of townhomes and “plexes” – duplexes, triplexes, etc. – rose by 8 percent and sales of condominiums were 4 percent lower than a year ago.”

Mortgage Bankers Association – “Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey” (3-17-10)

“The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 12, 2010.  The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.  On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1.7 percent compared with the previous week.”

Housing Wire – “Citi Mortgage Workouts Outnumber Foreclosures 15 to 1 in Q409″ (3-17-10)

“CitiMortgage, the mortgage servicing branch of Citigroup (C: 4.09 +0.99%), worked with nearly 128,000 borrowers in Q409 to avoid foreclosure on almost $19bn in mortgage loans, according to the company. Loan modifications in the distressed asset portfolios outpaced both foreclosures and delinquencies. Modifications increased 17% in Q409 from the previous quarter. For the entire year of 2009, Citi loan modifications increased 47% from 2008.”

Housing Wire – “HOPE NOW Modifies Mortgages Twice as Fast as HAMP” (3-17-10)

“HOPE NOW, an alliance between mortgage service professionals and non-profit counselors, reported 99,499 modifications in January, compared to 50,364 new permanent modifications under the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP). January HOPE NOW modification numbers dropped only slightly from 104,423 non-HAMP modifications in December, compared to roughly 35,000 permanent modifications under HAMP in that same month.”

Housing Wire – “Industry Wants Risk Retention Exemption in Dodd Bill” (3-17-10)

“Senator Christopher Dodd (D-CT), chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, unveiled details of a new bill to Congress yesterday that aims to overhaul the financial regulatory system and establish the Consumer Financial Protection Agency (CFPA). Under the Restoring American Financial Stability Act of 2010, financial firms would be required to hold a portion of the credit risk inherent in certain loan products on their books. This ‘risk retention’ is designed to make banks hold an interest in the financial products they create.”

Inman - “Fed to end MBS purchases” (3-17-10)

“Mortgage rates are expected to rise gradually as the Federal Reserve left a key short-term interest rate untouched Tuesday, but said it would wrap up $1.25 trillion in purchases of mortgage-backed securities this month. In a statement, the Federal Open Market Committee said its target for the federal funds overnight rate will remain in the range of zero to 0.25 percent, as inflation is likely to remain ‘subdued for some time.’”

Looking Back:

One year ago, over 15,000 homes and apartments were sold in Southern California within a month. The NAHB reported that housing starts increased by 22 percent in February of 2009. Builder confidence was at a record low for over two months.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 3/4/10

Thursday, March 4th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

Bruce Norris claims that the government’s aid will not be enough to prevent the U.S. economy from sliding back into recession. The NAR reports that national pending home sales decreased by 7.6 percent in January. According to Trepp, commercial real estate delinquencies decreased in February. The delinquency rate for Fannie Mae loans increased to 5.38% last month.

In The News:

Orange County Register – “Hear why housing will slump again” (3-4-10)

“Norris tells ocregister.com in a podcast interview that he believes that all the government aid that’s going to the housing market won’t be enough to keep real estate — and the entire economy — from sliding back into a second wave of recessionary conditions.”

NAR - “Pending Home Sales Down; Severe Weather Impacting Market” (3-4-10)

“The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in January, fell 7.6 percent to 90.4 from an upwardly revised 97.8 in December, but remains 12.3 percent higher than January 2009 when it was 80.5.”

CBIA - “Metro Regions” (3-4-10)

“Curious about housing numbers for a particular area of the state? This is the place to find all the numbers for an individual area.”

Recordnet.com – “Region’s future bright, experts say” (3-4-10)

“San Joaquin County, as well as the entire San Joaquin Valley, holds tremendous potential for growth even as it struggles to emerge from the recession, a panel of development experts, business and government leaders said Wednesday. The county could see gains of more than 30,000 new jobs in the next three years, paying wages and benefits of $1.5 billion.”

Housing Wire – “Valeo Fund Targets $1trn in Maturing Commercial Mortgages” (3-4-10)

“The private equity firm Valeo Fund is recruiting investors to go after $1trn of commercial mortgages set to mature between 2010 and 2013. The move comes as opportunities are begin to hit the entire commercial market, which has been bracing for struggles.”

Housing Wire – “Commercial Mortgages Showing Signs of a Brighter Road Ahead” (3-4-10)

“The blistering climb of commercial real estate delinquency rates, which crossed the 6% threshold in December, started to slow in February, according to the analytics firm Trepp, which monitors collateral performance on related commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS). The amount of commercial loans at least 30-days delinquent grew 23 basis points (bps) to 6.72% in February, the smallest increase in six months.”

Housing Wire – “General Growth Gets Extension for Reorganization, Plans NYSE Re-listing” (3-4-10)

“A bankruptcy judge granted mall real estate investment trust (REIT) General Growth Properties (GGP: 1.05 0.00%) a nearly five-month extension period to file a plan of reorganization for the company to exit bankruptcy.”

Housing Wire – “Fannie Single-Family Mortgage Delinquencies Grow to 5.38%” (3-4-10)

“The serious delinquency rate at government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) Fannie Mae (FNM: 1.005 +2.11%) rose nine basis points (bps) to 5.38% in the single-family mortgage book. Its a slight increase from 5.29% last month.”

Housing Wire – “Freddie Says Mortgage Rates Dip Below 5%” (3-4-10)

“Freddie Mac said the average interest for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 4.97% with a 0.7 origination point for the week ending March 4, down from 5.05% one week ago. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.15%.”

Housing Wire – “Home Prices Continue Climb from 2009 Levels: Clear Capital” (3-4-10)

“US home prices climbed 5% in February from a year ago, despite an incoming wave of REOs that could saddle the market for another three years, according to the Clear Capital Home Data Index. Prices grew on a yearly basis for the first two months of 2010. The 5% uptick in February bested the 2.3% yearly increase in January. However, prices remained unchanged on a rolling quarterly basis.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, the MBA reported that mortgage applications decreased by 12.6 percent within one week. Statistics from First American CoreLogic showed that 20 percent of mortgages were underwater. Radar Logic claimed that foreclosures increased home sales by approximately 7 percent during 2008. Federally regulated banks filed 62,084 reports of suspected mortgage fraud during the mid-summer of 2008.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 2/17/10

Wednesday, February 17th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

 CBIA announced that housing affordability has decreased in 22 of California’s 28 metropolitan areas. The Commerce Department reports that housing and apartment construction increased by 2.8 percent last month. According to SFAR, there is a 3.5 month supply of housing inventory in the San Francisco market. A survey shows that large investment companies are spending more on REIT investments.

In The News:

CBIA – “California Housing Affordability Continues Slide in Fourth Quarter, CBIA Announces” (2-17-10)

“Housing affordability in California continued to fall throughout most of the state during the fourth quarter of 2009, the California Building Industry Association said today. The quarterly National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index found that homes were less affordable in 22 of the state’s 28 metro areas included in the report.”

Mortgage Bankers Association – “Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey” (2-17-10)

“The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 12, 2010.  The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.  On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 0.5 percent compared with the previous week.”

Los Angeles Times – “Housing construction rises 2.8 percent in Janury” (2-17-10)

“The Commerce Department said Wednesday that construction of new homes and apartments rose 2.8 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 591,000 units. That was better than the 580,000 annual pace that economists were forecasting.”

Housing Wire – “Continental Conflicts Arising Over Banker Pay” (2-17-10)

“The majority of banking executives oppose government intervention in setting bank compensation parameters, according to a bank executive survey conducted from Nov. 17-Dec. 3, 2009 by US audit firm Grant Thornton. The sentiment, however, is not as greatly embraced abroad. The survey found 96% of 246 respondents do not agree the government should play a role in determining compensation, while 61% do not think a requirement to evaluate compensation will reduce excessive risk-taking.”

Housing Wire – “San Francisco Inventory at 3.5 Month Supply” (2-17-10)

“Despite a lull in luxury home sales, prices are up and inventory is down in the San Francisco market, according to a joint research report released by the Rosen Consulting Group and the San Francisco Association of Realtors. The report said there is a 3.5-month supply of single-family homes on the market, down from 5.8 months in January 2009. Condo inventory was at a 4.1-month supply, down from 9.5 months in January 2009.”

Housing Wire – “FHFA Proposes New Performance Goals for Fannie, Freddie” (2-17-10)

“The FHFA required, as the first goal for single-family housing, that 27% of the total number of mortgages purchased by Fannie and Freddie be of low-income family housing. The FHFA defined low-income as not exceeding 80% of the area median income.”

Inman - “5 arguments for open houses” (2-17-10)

“Want to pick a fight in a roomful of real estate agents? Ask them whether they think open houses are worthwhile. We did the virtual equivalent of that, sending out an online request for comments from real estate agents about the effectiveness of open houses — and they responded by filling up the old inbox faster than we could clean it out. Their responses range from passionate conviction that open houses are ‘a must,’ to cynical observations that they’re of benefit to no one other than to agents who are trolling for new clients.”

Realty Times – “Investor Report: REITs” (2-17-10)

“New York and London-based research firm Preqin reports that 62 percent of the large investment companies it surveyed said they plan to buy into – or add to their holdings – of private equity REITs, or real estate investment trusts. That’s up from 45 percent in a similar survey Preqin conducted in early 2009.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, the NAHB reported that builder confidence reached an all-time low. CBIA claimed that the pace of new home sales was continuing on a decreasing trend. The California government ended 20,000 jobs. S&P estimated that commercial real estate defaults would reach 3.5 percent by the end of 2009.

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