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153-TNG Radio – Cantu and Alvarez 12-19-09

Friday, December 18th, 2009

Mike-Cantu

Mike Cantu

Investor

 

Tony-Alvarez

Tony Alvarez

Investor

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This week Bruce is joined by real estate investors Mike Cantu and Tony Alvarez.

Tony started working in the real estate industry in 1981. He became an appraiser, and then started buying houses in Burbank. He eventually went on to invest in apartments and other types of real estate. Tony believes that what really gave him an edge in the business was his training as an appraiser. If you look at the front part of an appraisal form, it gives you all the information you need to focus your attention on.

Mike Cantu became attracted to the real estate business after watching a late night infomercial. The infomercial was about a surfer who claimed that he went from being a 20-year-old loser to a millionaire in a year. Mike Cantu believed the infomercial and decided to pursue real estate as a career. That night he took some notes and he created a list of goals. He and his friend Chuck went to a free promotional seminar. After going to the seminar, he revised those goals substantially upwards. His first goal was very modest; it was to pay the 40 dollar balance on his retread tires at J&J Tires.

People being trained by Bruce are viewing his finished project and it is very intimidating, because they cannot even imagine owning one of his properties. Bruce asks Mike how important it is to escape reality and set goals for future desires. Mike believes that goal-setting is the most important part of investment. Without a plan and goals you will wander aimlessly. Mike is a very goal oriented person. He has a stack of goal labeled cards which he reviews daily. Mike described a Harvard study in which a graduating class was interviewed. They tracked down that graduating class 20 years later, and they found that 3 percent of the graduates had set long term goals, and that 3 percent had a combined net worth that was greater than the other 97 percent.

Bruce asks Tony when he began to set goals for becoming wealthy, and actually believed he could do it. Tony began to set goals after his first bad experience in the 80s. His initial goal, after coming out of bankruptcy in 1993, was to get to 1 million dollars and 10,000 dollars a month in income. That was a big deal for him because he did not even have a car at that time, and he was working at Shakeys. His income eventually reached 55,000 dollars a month. He made all that money by working with REO agents.

Freedom is what defines wealth for Mike. Wealth gives him the freedom to do what he wants and live life on his terms. Mike obtained his first level of freedom in 2000. He realized then that he had all the things he needed to pay of some of his debts. Mike once thought he was invincible and that he could avoid the mistakes that many other people made, and he was wrong. He often found himself taking three steps forward and two steps back, but he does not regret the mistakes he made, because he learned from them.

Tony was born in Cuba and his family immigrated to the New England area. He grew up very differently than the other people in his area, and the struggles he faced helped him to develop certain personality traits which he believes greatly helped him in his business. Tony never felt that he was poor even though he was not able to buy some of the things that other people had. Tony describes the wealth he has as his piece of mind. He does not have to get up and go to a job. He is not being forced to work for someone else every day without being able to control his destiny.

Bruce explains that feeling of control of his destiny and his family’s destiny. It does not feel good knowing that you do not have control of your family’s destiny, and to know that you cannot let them experience all the things you wanted them to. Tony warns that investors must be careful when they start feeling like they are free and clear. Mike tells everyone that there is always a way to screw up your plans. He has tried to dumb-proof his plans, which has lead him to investing in well located single-family houses with good schools and no debt on it.

Mike agrees with Tony’s definition of wealth. Mike believes there are three life currencies, which he calls money, time, and serenity. You can have the first two, but if you don’t have the third then the money and time is not very valuable. Once Mike gained his serenity, he realized that it was something he never wanted to let go of, and he works every day to maintain it.

In 1985 to 1989, people gained a great amount of equity. Bruce asks Mike how well they were doing during that time.  In the 80s, Mike was still learning to invest. He started his business in 1982. When the real estate market picked up, he started building houses and developing them. In 1987, he developed plans to become a big-time real estate developer. At that time, he did not understand that real estate has different cycles, and eventually he lost a lot of what he had gained.

Tony did very well during this same time period. He started as an appraiser because he wanted to invest. He learned a lot from banks, because he was able to look through all their files. He studied how banks qualified people, and he studied their top clients. He took that knowledge into his investing business. He also gained a lot of money by appraising for other investors. By the end of this cycle, he felt like quitting both sides of the business, because his work was all about the money and he was worn out. When he gained a large sum of money, he allowed someone else to handle his money for him, and he lost it all. When he went bankrupt, he had to walk home from the L.A. courthouse to Burbank. This gave him a lot of time to think about what he would not do the next time around.

After Mike’s bad run in building, he owned a lot of land, unfinished houses, a big subdivision, and a couple of unfinished condo projects. He learned from that experience that no matter how well you do, you can lose everything. Unfortunately, at that time he did not realize that you could also go negative, and dig a hole that takes time to get out of.

Not everyone chooses to dig themselves out of those sorts of problem. Some choose to walk away from their debts. Bruce has had people brag to him about how they own a rental that they haven’t made a payment on for 15 months. Mike considered the possibility of a corporate bankruptcy, but his partner encouraged him to pay off his debts. Bankruptcy decisions can hurt a lot of people other than the one declaring bankruptcy. It took Mike two years to take care of his debts, but everyone he was working with gained from his work, and he feels good about the decision he made.

It is very important to choose who you do business with. Mike suggests that you approach your search for a partner with the same seriousness that you would approach your search for a spouse. Mike has been approached for many partnership deals, but he accepts very few of them. He always asks his potential partners about how they are doing financially, because you do not want to let someone else’s bad decisions affect you.

The main less Tony learned from the down market in the early 90s was that he did not have to go into bankruptcy. Unfortunately, he did not realize this until later. Tony was given bankruptcy advice from an attorney, and he encouraged Tony to do it because he gained a fee from that decision. Tony warns that if you are chasing after deals out of fear for something, then you will eventually lose whatever you are making. When Toney came out of bankruptcy he learned to set goals. He was not so concerned with just making money, but with gaining his piece of mind. After he experienced bankruptcy, he came out with a better sense of who he was and what the ultimate purpose of his real estate business was.

Mike’s primary lesson from his downturn was that the bad times will not last forever. Everything will pass in time. He also learned the power of goals. He gained the determination to clean up the mess he had made. He also realized how important it is to figure out what you are really pursuing in life. Mike views real estate as a means to an end.

Bruce’s real estate experience has lead him to his passion, which is teaching. He enjoys the experience of calculating statistics that can be used to help other people. This discussion will continue next week. Mike and Tony will be back next week.

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 12/16/09

Wednesday, December 16th, 2009

Today’s News Synopsis:

The Wall Street Journal reports that people are increasingly willing to abandon mortgage payments for becoming renters, housing starts climb almost 9%, the FDIC offers some reprieve from securities accounting rules for the next year, and the Bureau of statistics released their real earnings report stating that average hourly earnings fell by .5%.

In The News:

DSNews - “Trulia and RealtyTrac Release Survey Results of Homebuyers’ Attitudes Toward Foreclosures” (12-15-09)

“n Tuesday, Irvine, California- based RealtyTrac and Trulia Inc., headquartered in San Francisco released the results of a new survey revealing insights to how consumers feel about purchasing a foreclosed property, conducted on their behalf by Harris Interactive, a market research firm based in New York City. Beginning in May 2008, the survey has been conducted every six months, making this the fourth survey of its type.”

Wall Street Jounral“American Dream 2: Default, Then Rent” (12-16-09)

“People’s increasing willingness to abandon their own piece of America illustrates a paradoxical change wrought by the housing bust: Even as it tarnishes the near-sacred image of home ownership, it might be clearing the way for an economic recovery.”

Mortgage Brokers Association“Mortgage Applications Increase Slightly in Latest MBA Weekly Survey” (12-16-09)

“The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 11, 2009. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume increased 0.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 0.3 percent compared with the previous week.”

Bloomberg“Housing Starts in U.S. Climb 8.9% to 574,000 Pace “ (12-16-09)

“Builders in November broke ground on more U.S. homes, a sign the recovery in homebuilding may carry through into 2010. Housing starts rose 8.9 percent to an annual rate of 574,000, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Building permits, a sign of future construction, climbed to the highest level in a year.”

DSNews“FDIC Offers Reprieve for Securities Accounting Rules” (12-16-09)

“The FDIC has finalized a new regulatory capital rule that will give lenders who package and resell mortgages a little breathing room when it comes to accounting for these assets on their books. The federal agency’s rule directly addresses FAS 166 and 167, which beginning January 1, 2010 moves most securitizations – including residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities – back onto the issuer’s balance sheet. Banks had pushed for a three-year transition period to phase in the new accounting directives. The FDIC gave them 12 months.”

DSNews“HUD Establishes Standards for State Compliance with SAFE Act” (12-16-09)

“On Tuesday, HUD announced the publication of a proposed rule setting the minimum standards that states must meet in licensing loan originators to comply with the Secure and Fair Enforcement Mortgage Licensing Act of 2008 (Safe Act). The proposed rule was posted in Tuesday’s federal register and on HUD’s website.”

National Mortgage Magazine“NAMB forms Legislative & Regulatory Action Fund to protect broker industry” (12-16-09)

“The National Association of Mortgage Brokers (NAMB) has announced the launch of its Legislative & Regulatory Action Fund to collect donations that will be used for protecting the interests of the mortgage broker industry. The mortgage broker profession has underwent extensive scrutiny and is being portrayed unfavorably in the mainstream media, as the housing industry undergoes sweeping legislative and regulatory initiatives to stimulate the economy and implement safeguards aimed at preventing another housing bubble. NAMB has worked hard to defend mortgage brokers against deceptive and misleading information, and has been successful in many instances. NAMB continues the fight to protect and preserve your industry.”

Housing Wire“Fed Orders Credit Suisse to Cease and Desist” (12-16-09)

“The US Department of Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), along with the US Department of Justice and the New York County District Attorney’s Office, separately announced a $536m settlement with Credit Suisse. The firm will pay $268m each to the US and to New York.”

Housing Wire“FDIC OKs Delay of FAS 166, 167 Effect on Capital” (12-16-09)

“The board of directors at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. on Wednesday finalized a new capital rule that addresses industry concerns raised by Financial Accounting Standards (FAS) 166 and 167. FAS 166 and 167, which take effect in January, will require financial institutions to bring certain securitized assets onto balance sheets.”

Bureau of Labor and Statistics“Real Earnings” (12-16-09)

“Real average hourly earnings fell 0.5 percent from October to November, seasonally adjusted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. A 0.5 percent increase in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) more than offset a 0.1 percent increase in average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory workers.”

HUD“Shopping for Your Home Loan” (12-16-09)

“The Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act (RESPA) requires lenders and mortgage brokers to give this booklet to buyers within three days of applying for a mortgage loan. RESPA is a federal law that helps protect consumers from unfair practices by settlement service providers during the home-buying and loan process.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, the California Association of Realtors projected a 12.5% increase in California real estate prices for 2009 with the prediction that REOs would be absorbed in 2009. The National Association of Realtors came out with concerns on the commercial real estate forecast and Bloomberg reported that the cost of credit writedowns topped one trillion.

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 9/30/09

Wednesday, September 30th, 2009

Today’s News Synopsis:

Experian and Wyman estimate that the number of strategic defaults in 2008 were up to 600,000. Senators are supporting new legislation that would lend 200 million dollars for the prosecution of mortgage and real estate fraud cases.  The MBA reports that the mortgage loan application volume decreased by 2.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis. The $8,000 dollar tax credit is soon to expire while approximately 1.8 million people are expected to receive the credit. Freddie Mac announced that it will work with Titanium Solutions to do door-to-door loan modifications.

In the News:

Appraisal Institute“Appraisal Institute Urges Practicing Fundamentals, Hiring Qualified Appraisers, Enforcing Regulatory Oversight” (9-30-09)

“At a residential real estate roundtable hosted by the National Association of Home Builders, representatives of the Appraisal Institute urged the mortgage and housing industries to hire qualified appraisers and encouraged government regulators to redouble efforts on enforcement. Appraisal Institute President Jim Amorin, President-Elect Leslie Sellers and Bill Garber, director of government and external relations, participated on the panel last week with industry and government officials.”

DSNews - “Who Walks Out? New Studies Shed Light on Strategic Defaults” (9-29-09)

“According to Experian and Wyman, numbers of strategic defaults are far greater than you might expect. Nearly 600,000 borrowers nationwide fell into this category in 2008, more than double the number in the previous year. That number also represents 18 percent of all serious delinquencies from last year.”

Arizona Republic“Kyl bill targets real-estate fraud” (9-30-09)

“New national legislation calls for setting up a $200 million fund to help states prosecute mortgage and real-estate fraud cases. Sen. Jon Kyl, R-Ariz., is teaming with Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., to back the Fighting Real Estate Fraud Act of 2009, which would set up a grant program that local prosecutors, state attorneys general and Native American tribes could apply for to fund investigations.”

Washington Post“Lack of Equity Slows Federal Aid Program” (9-30-09)

“A federal program to allow borrowers with little or no equity in their homes to refinance is struggling to gain traction, according to government data released Tuesday, showing that only 93,070 borrowers have been helped since the effort was launched in April. The program has encountered difficulties that government regulators had not expected, such as the limited capacity of lenders to carry it out and the large proportion of borrowers who could not initially qualify because their home values had fallen so sharply.”

The Raw Story“US secretly tried to make deal with Goldman Sachs in wake of financial crisis” (9-30-09)

“The government secretly tried to orchestrate a deal involving Goldman Sachs in the week following Lehman Brothers’ collapse and considered using the Federal Reserve to help support such a transaction, Andrew Ross Sorkin reports in the new issue of Vanity Fair.”

Seeking Alpha“Mortgage Delinquencies Rising” (9-30-09)

“All types of delinquencies were up, but most distressing was the information about serious delinquencies, or mortgages that are more than 60 days past due. They reached 5.3% of all mortgages, up from 4.7% in the first quarter, an increase of 11.5%. Foreclosures-in-process reached 2.9% of all mortgages, up from 2.4% in the first quarter — a 16.2% increase.”

Real Estate Channel“FHFA Refinance Report Underscores Impact of Interest Rates on Refinance Volumes” (9-30-09)

“Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac refinanced more than 3.2 million mortgage loans in 2009 through August of this year. In the month of August alone, nearly 360,000 mortgages were refinanced. The numbers were announced today by Edward J. DeMarco, Acting Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), in its monthly report on Enterprises’ refinance volumes and the Administration’s Making Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP).”

New York Times“CIT Plans for Exchange Offer and Potential Bankrucpty” (9-30-09)

“The CIT Group, nearing a Thursday deadline to present a comprehensive restructuring scheme, is planning to roll out a massive debt exchange offer to its bondholders, along with votes for a potential prepackaged bankruptcy, people with direct knowledge of the talks told DealBook on Wednesday. CIT, a major lender to the nation’s small and mid-sized businesses, plans to ask bondholders to exchange their current holdings for new debt and equity, these people said. The offer would be introduced within days and would run for about 20 business days.”

Philly.com“Government tweaks mortgage-change efforts” (9-30-09)

“Speaking today at the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank, Treasury Department senior policy analyst Mark McArdle said changes were in place or become effective next week to better monitor performance of the 62 servicers involved in the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP), which has a Nov. 1 target of 500,000 ‘trial’ modifications, designed to test whether borrowers can handle easier terms on their home loans.”

Mortgage Bankers Association“Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey” (9-30-09)

“The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 25, 2009. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 3.1 percent compared with the previous week and increased 44.3 percent compared with the same week one year earlier. ”

Mortgage Bankers Association“Commercial/Multifamily Market Feels Impact of Continued Economic Pressures” (9-30-09)

“The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Commercial Real Estate/Multifamily Finance Quarterly Data Book for the Second quarter of 2009. The analysis focuses on how the continued economic downturn in the United States placed further pressure on the commercial and multifamily real estate markets during the second quarter. While the second quarter likely marks the recession’s end, it also marks a very low point in terms of jobs, consumer spending, industrial production and other drivers of commercial real estate demand. As a result, various areas of the commercial/multifamily real estate market have been impacted including originations, mortgage debt outstanding and mortgage performance. ”

San Francisco Chronicle“First-time home buyer tax credit set to expire” (9-30-09)

“The $8,000 federal tax credit for first-time home buyers is soon to expire, causing anxious house hunters to hustle and prompting a debate in Congress over extending a program that some say is central to the fragile real estate recovery. Critics argue that American taxpayers are simply footing a windfall for purchasers who would have bought homes anyway. Real estate industry statistics suggest that approximately 1.8 million people are expected to receive the credit. They also indicate that the rebate spurred 350,000 home sales.”

Inman - “Freddie doing loan mods door-to-door” (9-30-09)

“Freddie Mac on Tuesday announced it’s going even farther, hiring a company to go door-to-door to meet with delinquent borrowers in their homes to collect missing information and documents needed to begin three-month trial loan modifications under the Obama administration’s Making Home Affordable Program.”

Inman - “Lenders more generous with loan mods” (9-30-09)

“More than three out of four loan modifications made by lenders during the second quarter reduced borrowers’ monthly payments, up from 54 percent in the first three months of the year, according to a report released today by federal bank regulators.”

Orange County Register“O.C. house building down 85% in a decade” (9-30-09)

“Just one California metro area did better percentage wise than O.C.: The Vallejo-Fairfield area saw single-family home building permits rise 36% as of August, the only California metro with an increase.”

134-TNG Radio – John Young 8-8-09

Saturday, August 8th, 2009

john_young

John Young

Vice President of The California Builders Industry Association

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This week Bruce is joined by John Young. John Young is the founding partner of Young Homes which is located in Rancho Cucamonga, and he is the Vice President of the California Building Industry Association (CBIA). He has been associated with the real estate business for 30 years.

Bruce begins by asking John to contrast 1990 to what we are currently experiencing. John believes that we are currently in a tougher cycle. In the 80s we had a17 percent interest rates, and yet our current cycle is still more difficult. We are going through a much greater decline in our economy.

Most of the people in the industry are survivors that hope to continue through this down turn, so that they may start building again. Membership in the builders associations is down 50 to 60 percent, budgets are down, and layoffs are occurring. The association consists of public and private builders. John’s company is private and they have had to lay off people who have worked for his company for 10-15 years. John hates doing that because many of these people who have worked for him for many years have talent and they have become like family to him.

The sentiment towards helping builders is positive right now. In the last fifty years, builders were often looked at as the guys who would pave over everything and then take their money and run. Home builders create a lot of jobs and there has been a domino effect occurring in our economy as each industry’s struggles are affecting each other. The car industry has had a huge effect on our economy, but John thinks that the real estate industry is even more influential.

Bruce asks John what the time frame for a building project typically is. In normal economic times, it often takes 3-5 years for builders to finish all the paper work, prepare the land, build the homes, sell them and close the deal. That is a very risky time frame because a building project requires a lot of financial investment and you may not finish at the right time.

Builders have been called the most optimistic people in the world, and when you are dealing with an investment that requires a 3-5 year investment you almost have to be. The mentality you have when you first buy a property changes multiple times through the selling process.

Bruce asks John if many builders were caught off guard when they discovered that there was no demand for the product they were selling near the beginning of the down turn, and when it became obvious that the market was slowing down. John noticed things were slowing down during the third quarter of 2006, but then things perked up temporarily in 07, so that made the builders feel optimistic.

Bruce asks if John has confidence in the people he relies on to tell him when things are about to change for the worse. John does have confidence in their management, but what caught John off guard was the magnitude of the decline.

Bruce is sure that the lenders were all caught off guard as well. Bruce asks John about how they responded to the downturn. Most of the banks are working with the builders to finish projects, but it all comes back to whether or not they had a guarantee. John wishes they would try harder though. Banks are trying to work with the builders.

Sometimes when you have a project that gets appraised for less than the lender originally anticipated, the lender will ask you to participate with more capital (margin call). Today, most companies cannot do that. They either do not have the cash or they need to retain that cash.

Regionally builders are more affected by downturns than national builders. John does think that regional builders have been hurt worse. Some builders will have a better chance to make it through this downturn because they work in multiple areas with different cycles. Larger builders also have better access to capital.

Bruce asks John what the mood is towards financing new projects. John says people are not interested in financing new projects. There are some exceptions, such as when a builder has land that has everything ready for building.

Bruce asks if somebody allowed John to have their shovel-ready lots, would he be able to build it for a profit. John says they are gaining maybe 1 or 2 percent profit on their shovel-ready lots.

Young Homes has built a couple thousand homes in Fontana over the last ten years and now those homes are competing with his new inventory because of the REO and short sale inventory.

Bruce asks if John ever considers getting rid of new home construction so that he can deal with the existing inventory. John says that is a good idea, and he has looked into it. Unfortunately, because of the size of John’s company, they cannot do that. They would have to change their entire business model to do that. However, there are smaller companies who have been able to modify their work force to do that.

Bruce asks John if the current unsold inventory of homes is still excessive. John says that it still is, but it has improved, and they are now almost finished with their inventory. The federal $8,000 dollar tax credit has helped John’s industry immensely but the state buying program has already run out of money. John’s company is currently working to get the federal program extended and the state he’s working on as well.

Bruce asks how the appraisal situation has affected builders. John says that now appraisal companies are managed differently, and the changes are not helping builders. The appraisers are using foreclosures and short sales as comps, which does not give builders fair market value. Too many foreclosures and short sales are being used. They are having to appeal almost every appraisal. So far the appeals have prevailed but it takes lots of effort and times.

See John Young at I Survived Real Estate 2009.

As a founding partner in Rancho Cucamonga-based Young Homes, John R. Young has been an active participant in this highly successful Southern California home building company for nearly 20 years.

Together with his partners Reggie King and Jack Young, and the entire Young Homes management team, he has been responsible for the development of nearly 3,500 homes in communities throughout the Inland Empirefs San Bernardino and Riverside counties.

This well-respected and highly successful firm is currently ranked among the Inland Empirefs hTop 5 home builders. At the beginning, the Young Homes vision was to provide entry-level homes that would make the dream of home ownership attainable for young families and other first-time buyers. Although the vision has expanded over the years to include higher-end properties, the companyfs heart remains with the dreams of first-time buyers.

Youngfs experience in the real estate and home building industries extends over close to 30 years. His early years were spent as a successful sales representative and real estate broker focusing on single-family homes. Finding that he had a knack for the business, he purchased and proceeded to operate a residential mortgage company, specializing in FHA and VA loans, as well as conventional loans. The expertise he built in sales and finance has proven to be a major asset to the steady growth of family-owned Young Homes.

John Young has earned his acclaim as a trusted leader in the new home building industry. He is a past president of the Building Industry Association of Southern California and previously served as president of BIA/Baldy View Chapter and president of HomeAid Inland Empire, a non-profit charitable organization founded the BIA/SC and dedicated to building and renovating housing for the transitionally homeless.

Young is currently acting as Vice Chairman of the California Building Industry Association as and is active in the National Association of Home Builders by serving on the Board of Directors.

He is also a Board Member of the Chino Hills Community Foundation, spearheading a variety of community improvements.

Under the direction of John Young, Young Homes has grown steadily over the years, receiving well-deserved acclaim for its valuable contributions to the home building industry and the greater community. The company has been honored as Builder of the Year by the BIA/Baldy View and is the recipient of the 2005 BIA/SC Community Involvement Award.

96-TNG Radio – John Husing 11-15-08

Friday, November 14th, 2008

 

John-Husing

John Husing

Inland Empire Economist

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Bruce Norris is joined this week by Inland Empire Economist Dr. John Husing. Bruce asks John if we’re facing the biggest mess he’s ever seen since he’s been an economist. John says it’s the worst mess he’s seen in his life.

John talks about how we got here. In 2004 the real estate market detached from reality. The housing shortage created unbelievable demand creating massive price increases. Investors came into the picture. Prices started increasing even more since they tied up supply. It had nothing to do with real supply and demand issues. The creative financing made it even worse.

Bruce brings up that the same financing was available to consumers just as well as it was for investors. The consumer too became the speculator.

Bruce asks if the Feds are taking the correct steps to fix the problem. John thinks they haven’t fixed the fundamental problems. John says all homes bought in 2004-2007 are upside down. John says it’s one third of the market. That does not include those that used their home as a piggy bank and refinanced.

Bruce asks if foreclosure moratoriums have worked in the past. John thinks it’s just a delay. There are three parts to a loan: the principal, interest rates and the terms. Ultimately it’s about the principal. The mortgage backed securities market is where it’s getting held up.

Bruce talks about some for these solutions and how they only apply for those that have the adjustable loans and how that doesn’t fair well for those that didn’t participate in those programs.

John thinks we’re only about one third through the houses that are upside down and that doesn’t include people who refinanced. If the price gets down far enough, they could just walk away anyway.

Bruce asks if commercial areas are affected by residential. John says the office market was the third tightest office market in the US because many firms were moving here because the size and growth of our economy. There was a subsequent boom in commercial building. We’ve gone from 7% vacancy to 19%. There’s more being finished so it will bring it over 20%.

Retail sales have plunged due to unemployment in residential building in the Inland Empire (Riverside, Moreno Valley, San Bernardino, Corona, Perris). We have a 10% decline in sales so now the shopping malls are being affected. General Growth, who owns several shopping malls, might go under. Their stock price has been hit hard.

John thinks we’ll see a few more large retail stores go under. Numerous furniture stores are already out of business. The auto industry is getting hit hard but that’s part of an industry issue that’s ongoing.

Bruce asks John about the cities in California and if they will be dealing with difficult issues in their budget as real estate taxes take a big hit. John says cities will be affected. The biggest item in the discretionary budget is retail sales. When sales go down, that makes things difficult.

Bruce asks about the ramifications of when cities go bankrupt and who ends up holding the bag. John talks about damaged credit and investors not getting paid. The typical investor in bonds includes pension funds. Bonds are typically considered a secure and safe investment. Triple A has really been misleading as many of these investments have not turned out to be safe at all.

As real estate supply increases, the supply of homes has dropped significantly. Demand has gone up but the supply is still too strong. The supply is what has to be addressed. As long as the supply still is too high, we won’t see new homes being built as it won’t pencil. Locally, if builders get the land for free, builders still can’t build because the fees and materials are still too expensive. Homes are going for less than replacement values. So many industries are connected to the building industry. 95% of all job losses in the Inland Empire can be traced back to the residential construction industry. The unemployment rate in the inland empire has reached 9.1%.

John doesn’t think high unemployment is causing too much out migration. John thinks nationally we are having a difficult time so there are no real safe havens.

Bruce asks if California has ever seen 12% unemployment. John says no and the worst for the Inland Empire area was 1993. That was localized because of the space/defense industry job losses.

Commercial construction is now not penciling. The projects currently underway will be finished. John doesn’t think another office space will be build until 2013-2014. We have to absorb around 20% vacancy rate.

With the US going into recession, world trade has slowed down substantially and directly affects the Inland Empire because of lack of warehousing and distribution space needed. Construction will now stop in the industrial market which is typically very strong.

Bruce asks who the typical lender is in the commercial market. Local banks and pension plans are behind some of these projects. Bruce feels they will own a lot of real estate in the coming years. This is happening in Orange County as well because the Financial Industry was hit so hard.

Technically many of these buildings are still leased but are now vacant. They don’t show up as vacancy. Therefore the availability rate is a better indicator John says.

Bruce asks about apartments. John says the coastal markets have the best chance of doing well. In the Inland Empire it hasn’t shown up as a bright spot. John thinks many people are moving closer to their jobs. Vacancies have actually increased. It’s a market we don’t have good data on.

Bruce and John discuss about the oil market. John says lower gas prices are like a tax decrease which helps in the short term. In the long term, projects we were hoping was going to happen are now on hold (alternative energy projects). Bruce talks about the how this is a repeat of the 80s.

John talks about an oil set price solution and how it might help.

Bruce talks about the new regulations and how REO agents are going to adjust. They’ve laid off staff knowing they will have to hire them back to handle the huge volume coming shortly. John really thinks we need to find out how can we get restructuring on the underlying loan on the mortgage backed securities. See Dr. John Husing on his website at johnhusing.com.

In August 2006, Dr. John Husing was listed by the L.A. Times Magazine as one of the 100 most powerful people shaping life in Southern California. He is a leading authority on the impact of the goods movement industry on the region, and in particular its role as a provider of upward economic mobility to blue collar workers. He has just completed major studies on the impact of the proposed Clean Truck Program at ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach and has recommended some changes in strategy.

In addition, Dr. Husing has spent decades studying the city & county economies of Southern California with a specialty on the Inland Empire. This research began when he began working on his doctoral thesis at Claremont Graduate University in 1964. For the past 43 years, Dr. Husing has conducted extensive research plus interviews with executives and entrepreneurs to understand the forces shaping Southern California. He has a deep understanding of our political process, having managed over 100 partisan and non-partisan campaigns. Today, he uses his extensive knowledge of the region and his political experience to explain the economy to business leaders and policy makers throughout the Southland.

Privately, John Husing enjoys life as an adventurer, taking treks into uncharted territories as well as traveling to 52 different countries. In recent years, he has twice entered the unexplored jungles of NW New Guinea to make first contact with previously undiscovered stone-aged tribes. His last trip was trekking over the Himalayas from Nepal into Tibet. Closer to home, Dr. Husing is an amateur genealogist with his American roots traced back 12 generations to Robert Fuller and his family on the Mayflower.

90-TNG Radio – I Survived Real Estate 10-11-08

Friday, October 10th, 2008

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I Survived Real Estate 2008

Part Eight

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Part eight of “I Survived Real Estate 2008” picks up with Rick Sharga of RealtyTrac talking about a discussion he had with a man who handled the REO assets at a credit union. The man was wondering if RealtyTrac could supply him a list of who owned the firsts on a list properties. Rick was surprised since he thought that would have been information that was gathered. The man said they did not have the information as little information was gathered on the first mortgage and little was taken on the homebuyer.

Rick says this downturn is different from others in that other downturns were preceded by an economic downturn. RealtyTrac feels this kicked in first quarter of 2006. Unemployment was historically low as were interest rates. Rick sees we saw capitalism at its worst. We saw Realtors and mortgage brokers getting greedy along with Wall Street. Tools were being used in ways they never should have been used. The wheels this time all came off at once.

Bruce says there are a lot of new people in business. The greatest bull run got more and more people in and they rationalized that it would continue. Bruce talks about the discussions people make in a boom market and why it’s unwinding. Bruce also mentions a bet with a friend he made where he thought oil prices would be at $50 before they hit $150. This was when the price was $142.

Bruce asks Richard Lambros how the building industry looks at this market and the possibility of building. Richard talks about the builder journey through the last few years. This is a housing crisis combined with a credit crisis. Richard brings up how most people don’t like the solutions being presented but feels the solutions may be less painful then letting it correct on its own. He says builders are really in a position of waiting and the core issues are still an issue. California homes are very expensive to create and the government doesn’t seem to realize that.

Bruce asks Richard if when building resumes if the size of the homes will decline. Richard says the average went from 2,200 to 2,500 square feet and builders were looking at demand.

Bruce says he thinks this is an unusual event and this might never been happen again in our lifetime. Prices might skew so low that it will eventually attract mass migration. Once our home prices dip below those of neighboring states, we win the climate and coast battle and win migration. Once we get the migration, building will really be up and running again.

Tommy chimes in and says there are other states that had the same inventory for half the price of the states that got overheated. Overheated states have to come back to “normal.”

Bruce says he agrees but says that’s part of the reason he loves California real estate. California wins so many tie breakers. There’s exciting volatility you don’t get in other states.

Bruce talks about Fannie and Freddie and if we’ll see them stay in private ownership.

Christopher Thornberg says they are clearly insolvent and he doesn’t know what they will do or how they will react. Typically they overact.

Bruce asks the panel if the government writing these big checks will increase inflation and if we’ll see much different interest rates three years from now.

Christopher describes the two ways our government pays the bills; issue debt or printing money. Christopher says our government assumes that investors have confidence in the system. If investors see the bottom drop out of the public bond market and the treasuries go crazy then there’s a problem but he says we’re far from that. Christopher says interest rates are now adjusting for the increased risk. Eventually they’ll come down when this crisis passes.

Bruce talks about when he became an investor he refinanced his house at 17% interest. Many people were telling him at the time he’d never see single digit interest rates again. Bruce says interest rates can be very high as long as the income to median price ratio makes sense. There could still be a healthy market.

Rick talks about market psychology and how nervous buyers and lenders are at the moment.

Bruce talks about the velocity of price drops in the market being historical and some are unaware. 35-50% price declines are shocking.

Joel discusses a Zillow study where 7 out of 10 people thought their home was still appreciating. Christopher Thornberg calls that homo-illucination and what it stands for.

Bruce asks Phil Tirone if lenders are skewing too conservative and not making loans at all. The automated underwriting was such a blessing at the time because it made things ease and now it’s making it worse. Phil describes people putting 50% down and he still can’t get financing because his client’s credit score is low.

Christopher says those automated systems were a disaster and that lenders knew how to manipulate the systems. Philip says these systems did help cause the problem. Christopher says once the price gets down low everyone will qualify.

Bruce touches on affordability. Bruce describes affordability and what it solves and does not solve. He describes past cycles and what he looks for in a turned around market.

More in the last and final show. See also the video on YouTube or Google video.

The following partners and sponsors without whom the event would not have been possible:

Platinum Sponsors:

The San Diego Creative Investors Association (SDCIA): sdcia.com

Investors Workshops: investorsworkshops.com

Frye Wiles: fryewiles.com

Proxibid: proxibid.com

White House Catering: whcatering.com

MVT Productions: mvtpro.com

Pechanga Resort and Casino: pechanga.com

The Denver Nuggets: nba.com nuggets

The Chicago Bulls: nba.com bulls

The Cleveland Cavaliers: nba.com cavaliers

Gold Sponsors:

7 Steps to a 720 Credit Score and Philip X. Tirone – 7stepsto720.com

Chicago Title – ctic.com

Elite Auctions – sellwithauction.com

Foreclosure Trackers – foreclosuretrackers.com

Investors Resource Center of America LA and Steve and Robyn Love – irca-losangeles.com

Las Brisas Escrow – lasbrisasescrow.com

National Club of Real Estate Investors and Sam Saddat – ncrei.com

Northern California Real Estate Investors Association (Norcalreia) and David Granzella – norcalreia.com

North San Diego Real Estate Investors and Linda Wessels – nsdrei.org

RealtyTrac – realtytrac.com

RE Ventures and Michael Pines – reventuresrealty.com

Real Estate Investors Club of Los Angeles and Phyllis Rockower – realestateclubla.com

Real Wealth Investor and Scott Whaley – realwealthinvestor.com

Saddleback Valley Communities – svc4.com

Silverstar Finance and Janet French – silverstarfinance.com

Sunset Hills Memorial Park and Mortuary – sunsethills.cc

The Mission Inn – missioninn.com

The Mortgage Equity Group – http: themeg.net

The Naked Real Estate Investor Club – Rosie Nieto – nakedrealestateinvestorsclub.com

The Short Sale Processor and Nick Manfredi – theshortsaleprocessor.com

Virtual Real Estate Tour and Layla Tusko – 1wealthcreation.com

Wholesale Capital Corporation – wccmtg.com

86-TNG Radio – I Survived Real Estate 9-20-08

Friday, September 19th, 2008

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I Survived Real Estate 2008

Part Four

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Part four of “I Survived Real Estate 2008” picks up with Bruce Norris introducing CEO of the California Builders Industry Association of the Southern California, Richard Lambros. There’s a little repeat from last week to get the show going.

Richard discusses real estate as a speculative investment and the cycles. Richard warns us not to think of it as a cycle because that means we can have no influence over the outcome. Total new home production is down and will produce the lowest number of homes in history. In the building industry, they say it’s a building depression. In three years, production has been cut to one third. 2009 is not looking very good. Riverside and San Bernardino account for much of the cuts.

The economic impact of less building is very important. Just in Southern California, the building industry created $48 million of economic activity in 2005. In 2008, reaching $18 billion

Homes today are no longer shelter, they are infrastructure. Energy efficiency in California is already cutting edge and new guidelines are making them even tougher. New homes are unfairly being forced to make up for the 99% of retail homes that aren’t energy efficient. This inequality is difficult for builders to manage at times as costs and regulations add not only costs but time.

At the same time, a new home is a “Prius” and an old home is the “Hummers.” New homes have come a long way in building standards and built-in efficiencies. Buying a home today is very different than buying

New home projects are difficult to get approved. He speaks on residual land value and how builders figure price for a project. Builders work from comparables down to land price and not the other way around. Valuing land right now is too difficult and no one wants to loan on it right now. Builders are focusing on costs control and concerned about anything that adds time or costs to a project.

Real strength will return to building when strength returns to all the other sectors. The state needs jobs and economic growth for builders to thrive.

Bruce Norris then introduces Joel Singer, Executive VP for the California Association of Realtors. Joel discusses the myth versus the reality of the market place. As a former CAR economist Joel has experience after being through other downturns. This downturn is definitely different. It’s unique in that price decline is really steep.

The adjustment process we can’t look at past cycles because the adjustment of each cycle is different. Joel gets asked often “When is bottom.” Joel does not know. Joel is looking at activity picking up and feels we’ve hit bottom.

Joel is aware it feels bad because price is down so much. New builders and the civilian sellers have been squeezed out. The market is full of short sales and foreclosures; all have-to-sell inventory. Roughly 2 out of 3 of all sales are distressed transactions. Joel does agree 2009 will be bad and thinks foreclosures will continue but not sure what will happen beyond 2009.

Unemployment is a problem. A bigger wild card is the notion that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are dead. They are insolvent. (At this point in time, Fannie and Freddie were not government controlled). One they are nationalized, Joel expects a further jolt to the marketplace. Fannie and Freddie account for 90% (with FHA) of all loans in the market place.

Affordability has improved and the number of first time buyers will be 50% of the market place. It will be the highest level in three years. Three years ago, any idiot could be a successful investor. In today’s market, good investors will make a difference. The opportunities will be risky, look at the opportunities but don’t assume explosive growth. Assume the property makes economic sense. It will be challenging but the pros will be very successful.

Bruce Norris then announces Tommy Williams, president of the national Auctioneers Association and co-founder of Williams and Williams Auction Company. Conversation to resume next week.

Special thanks to the following partners and sponsors without whom the event would not have been possible:

Platinum Sponsors:

The San Diego Creative Investors Association (SDCIA): sdcia.com

Investors Workshops: investorsworkshops.com

Frye Wiles: fryewiles.com

Proxibid: proxibid.com

White House Catering: whcatering.com

MVT Productions: mvtproductions.tv

Pechanga Resort and Casino: pechanga.com

The Denver Nuggets: nba.com nuggets

The Chicago Bulls: nba.com bulls

The Cleveland Cavaliers: nba.com cavaliers

Gold Sponsors:

7 Steps to a 720 Credit Score and Philip X. Tirone – 7stepsto720.com

Chicago Title – ctic.com

Elite Auctions – sellwithauction.com

Foreclosure Trackers – foreclosuretrackers.com

Investors Resource Center of America LA and Steve and Robyn Love – irca-losangeles.com

Las Brisas Escrow – lasbrisasescrow.com

National Club of Real Estate Investors and Sam Saddat – ncrei.com

Northern California Real Estate Investors Association (Norcalreia) and David Granzella – norcalreia.com

North San Diego Real Estate Investors and Linda Wessels – nsdrei.org

RealtyTrac – realtytrac.com

RE Ventures and Michael Pines – reventuresrealty.com

Real Estate Investors Club of Los Angeles and Phyllis Rockower – realestateclubla.com

Real Wealth Investor and Scott Whaley – realwealthinvestor.com

Saddleback Valley Communities – svc4.com

Silverstar Finance and Janet French – silverstarfinance.com

Sunset Hills Memorial Park and Mortuary – sunsethills.cc

The Mission Inn – missioninn.com

The Mortgage Equity Group – http: themeg.net

The Naked Real Estate Investor Club – Rosie Nieto – nakedrealestateinvestorsclub.com

The Short Sale Processor and Nick Manfredi – theshortsaleprocessor.com

Virtual Real Estate Tour and Layla Tusko – 1wealthcreation.com

Wholesale Capital Corporation – wccmtg.com

85-TNG Radio – I Survived Real Estate 9-13-08

Saturday, August 30th, 2008

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I Survived Real Estate 2008

Part Three

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Part three of “I Survived Real Estate 2008” picks up with Bruce Norris introducing Philip Tirone who is author of the “7 Steps to a 720 Credit Score” and President of the Mortgage Equity Group. Philip brings to the table experience from the lending and consumer side of the equations.

Philip talks about people still wanting stated income and how much harder consumers are have to work to get financing. Banks are going after co-borrowers more aggressively and doing much more background checking.

Philip discusses the issue of consumers that owe much more on their home as a similar home in the same neighborhood because of the market at the desire to buy the new one and foreclosure on the current home. Philip says that lenders are catching on to this practice and has revised lending policy accordingly. As of August 1st, if a consumer wants to buy a home in the same neighborhood, it needs to make logical sense that the consumer needs the new home due to extra bedroom, more space, etc. And if the consumer has less than 30% equity, the consumer cannot accept rental income on previous home and must have 6 months reserves.

Philip discusses the top three lending strategies for investors. Many investors that have purchased for cash want to refinance. The best financing is available within the first 60 days. If buying in an LLC, Philip says a single member LLC will get an investor a better rate. Philip also says to go to portfolio lenders for loans. They don’t have the limitations that Fannie and Freddie currently have in place.

For sellers, Philip discusses the natural inclination for sellers to drop price if a property is not selling. Instead of dropping price, Philip thinks sellers should consider buying down the buyer’s interest rate. This could save the consumer a great deal of money and also support prices in the area. Philip also addresses buyers that don’t qualify because lack of down payment. If buyers don’t have down payment, FHA allows gifts for down payments. Philip says that although there is a seasoning rule for FHA, investors should make sure all due diligence is done up front so at the 90 day mark the loan will fund quickly.

Philip also says consumers and investors should manage their credit actively. 80% of people have an error on their credit report that could possibly hinder them from getting a loan. Philip says credit is really easy to manage and scores can swing 100 points. Using credit to your advantage isn’t as hard as many people think.

Bruce then introduces Annemaria Allen who is President of the Compliance Group who specializes in loan complains and is the representative for the California Mortgage Bankers Association.

Annemaria talks about the lending industry yesterday being full of unsophisticated borrows, greedy lenders, minimal loan compliance, and inflated home prices. Today, a complete overhaul is taking place. Lending has somewhat stabilized because subprime is gone and full document loans are back. She calls it “back to the basics” of underwriting. Annemaria says automatic underwriting isn’t used as much and lenders are doing much more due diligence.

Annemaria thinks home prices still are too high and that we haven’t seen the worst of it. The adjustable rate mortgages will cause more problems in the next year. HERA (Housing Economic Recovery Act) was signed into law by Bush in July. The Safe Act that passed seeks to protect consumers by requiring loan originators, lenders, and brokers will have to register with the system. Some of these news acts are several hundred pages long and are still being reviewed.

Regulation Z means more disclosures to consumers. It is supposed to capture all subprime and Alt-A loans. There will be more advertising restrictions and more disclosures.

California has 30 bills in legislature to help with current issues. Foreclosure prevention laws are being passed nationwide along with loan modification and servicing laws. The Non-Traditional Mortgage Guidelines are being adopted nationawide.

Annemaria feels it’s a little too late but the biggest solution moving forward will be consumers being more educated and for the industry to prevent fraud. Annemaria feels stronger standards in compliance and safety will prevent this from happening in the future.

Bruce then brings forward the CEO of the California Builders Industry Association of the Southern California, Richard Lambros.

Richard discusses real estate as a speculative investment and the cycles. Richard warns us not to think of it as a cycle because that means we can have no influence over the outcome. Total new home production is down and will produce the lowest number of homes in history. In the building industry, they say it’s a building depression. In three years, production has been cut by one third.

80-TNG Radio – Richard Lambros 8-9-08

Friday, August 8th, 2008

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Richard Lambros

CEO of the Builders Industry Association of Southern California

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Bruce Norris is joined this week by CEO of the Builders Industry Association of Southern California and panelist for I Survived Real Estate 2008, Richard Lambros. Richard and Bruce discuss the current market, when the slow down was anticipated, how much worse it’s been than expected, percentage off in building permits in Southern California, how this downturn differs from the past downturns, the speed of deceleration, the leading factors causing the problem, the credit market getting tight really causing problems, light at the end of the tunnel, HR3221 and how it will change and help the market, stabilizing credit markets, helping the foreclosure issue, how HR3221 will help builders directly, FHA and the new loan limits, why it’s so important that limits have changed, median home prices, supply shortage of housing, homeownership levels and how California compares to other states, affordability, misconceptions that builders make huge returns on projects, cities adding fees during a boom, cities focusing on product that produce taxes and creating fees for product that does not, how some cities are actually helping by differing fees in this down market, if a big budget deficit is a concern for the building industry, some cities actually putting together incentive packages to stimulate building but a deficit causing a decline, Prop 13 and concerns, the Builders Industry Association and legislation and how the BIA is involved, how builders are highly regulated, green building and zero net energy homes, the BIA’s stance on green, how California already builds some of the most energy efficient homes in the nation, construction loans in the current market and lenders willingness to lend for building, land prices in the current market, how builders took bad outlooks in a booming market, the statistics builders watch that will suggest a comeback, biasc.org.

Richard Lambros is the Chief Executive Officer of the Building Industry Association of Southern California (BIA/SC), a non-profit trade association representing over 2,200 member companies involved in all aspects of the building industry in the six-county Los Angeles metropolitan area. The 38,000-square-mile region is home to over 16-million residents.

Richard is responsible for the day-to-day management of the sixth largest local homebuilding trade association in the nation and the largest local association in the state. He works with BIA/SC’s Board of Directors, six chapters and twelve councils to craft and implement strategies that will grow the size and strength of the association, provide valuable member services, advance industry causes and create a pro-housing climate that is conducive to sustained housing growth in Southern California. At BIA/SC, Richard has utilized his wealth of political, business and association management experience to help the association reestablish itself as the leading regional voice for the homebuilding industry. His efforts and skills were recognized nationally in 2004 when he won the National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB) “Executive Officer of the Year Award.”

After nearly winning an election in 1996 to represent California’s 56th Assembly District, Richard served a two-year term as Executive Director for the California Republican Party, where he managed the administrative and political activities for the largest state Republican Party in the nation.

Prior to his political post, Richard spent over 10 years representing the interests and efforts of the housing industry. He served as the Vice President and Director of Public Affairs for the Apartment Association of Orange County (AAOC) and as Director of Governmental Relations for the Rancho Los Cerritos Association of REALTORS©. His years of service and contributions to the housing industry earned him special recognition in 1996 as the Alliance of Real Estate Associations’ “Legislative Advocate of the Year.”

A second-generation California native, Richard was born in Los Angeles and raised in Downey, California. He attended the University of Southern California, where he earned a Bachelor of Arts degree in Political Science. Richard is married and lives with his wife, Colleen, and four children in Fullerton.

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