Sources:
Southern California rents are likely to remain flat, study says
32 million people struggling to pay mortgage
Home prices double-dip in West but flatten nationally: Clear Capital
Home prices fall for seventh month in February
U.S.: World’s 7th worst housing market
Possible Federal Government Shutdown
Federal shutdown would hit California hard
Analysts say FHA shutdown possible without budget consensus
Tax rule that would’ve hurt small business is repealed
Home Builders Applaud Congressional Passage of 1099 Repeal
The 2011 Community Preference Survey
Mortgage aid offered to those who cashed out equity

Today’s News Synopsis:

The government has yet to agree on a budget. If they cannot agree on a budget before Monday, many jobs will be put on hold, and many government sponsored programs will temporarily stop functioning. CMBS delinquencies fell to 8.74% in March, according to Fitch. The due date on taxes for property owners has been extended for 1 day.

In The News:

NAR - “What a Government Shutdown Means for REALTORS®” (4-5-11)

“If legislation providing for funding is not signed into law to extend funding after April 8, the federal government could shut down. This means many, but not all, government programs, including some that impact federal housing and mortgage programs, could grind to a halt as early as April 9, 2011.”

Los Angeles Times – “Home lenders shed workers as mortgage rates climb” (4-5-11)

“the nation’s No. 1 mortgage lender, has handed pink slips to about 1,900 workers who had processed loans generated both by Wells’ mortgage unit and by independent brokers, a spokesman said Thursday. About 230 of the positions were in California, said Jason D. Menke, a spokesman for Wells Fargo Home Mortgage in Des Moines, Iowa. Nearly 100 cuts were made in the San Diego area, 59 in Irvine and fewer numbers in San Bernardino, Rancho Cordova and Walnut Creek.”

Housing Wire – “The claim: Short sales closed in 30 days” (4-5-11)

“But if a mortgage servicer says his or her company can complete a short sale in 30 days, are they being overly ambitious? Eric Friedman, president of PREO, doesn’t think so. His 10-month-old company boasts the ability to accomplish this task. Through PREO.com, Friedman says he lines up banks, investors, servicers, real estate agents and buyers in a seamless process to transact a short sale in as little time as 30 days.”

Housing Wire – “Fisher: The time for banks to support the economy is now” (4-5-11)

“Fisher called for the immediate end for the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing program and a pullout of all federal support for America’s financial institutions. He made his comments while speaking at the 2011 Society of American Business Editors and Writers conference at Southern Methodist University in Dallas Friday.”

Orange County Register – “SEC: O.C. activist lied to investors” (4-5-11)

“The Securities and Exchange Commission filed civil fraud charges Thursday against high-profile Orange County money manager and political activist Charles ‘Chip’ Hanlon, alleging that Hanlon ‘vastly overstated’ the size of his Delta Global Advisors financial advisory and the financial health of the business.”

Orange County Register – “Property owners get extra day to pay tax” (4-5-11)

“April 10 is the traditional due date for the money, but because this year that day falls on a Sunday, the deadline has moved to Monday!”

Housing Wire – “Fitch finds CMBS delinquencies dip for first time in four months” (4-5-11)

“The overall delinquency rate stood at 8.74% in March, a decrease of 2 basis points from the previous month and the first drop since October. Fitch analysts said despite the deceleration of delinquencies, which fell across four of the five main property types last month, the upswing projecting for the rest of the year will likely take the rate to a peak around 10%.”

Housing Wire – “FHA settles with mortgage lender for improperly refinancing loans” (4-5-11)

“The Federal Housing Administration’s Mortgagee Review Board settled with a Massachusetts mortgage lender that allegedly failed to fully verify whether borrowers could sustain mortgage payments prior to refinancing their loans. As part of the settlement, First American Mortgage Trust of Brookline, Mass., agreed to pay $72,500 to reimburse FHA for past insurance claims and to indemnify FHA’s insurance fund for any claims to be paid on five mortgages should they default within the next 60 months.”

Orange County Register – “How fed shutdown could affect homebuyers” (4-5-11)

“Virtually every mortgage taken now requires an IRS Form 4506 to be processed on the borrower. Lenders use this form to ensure there are no expense deductions, self-employment, rental income, etc that was not claimed on the mortgage application. If the government shuts down these forms cannot be processed and final loan approvals will be delayed.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, John Husing estimated that 10,500 new jobs would be created in Riverside during 2010. First American CoreLogic reported distressed sales accounted for 29 percent of the U.S. market. According to the Clear Capital Home Price Index, US home prices dipped 3.9% in the first quarter of 2010. The rate for 30-year FRM loans was at 5.21%.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

Leslie Appleton-Young Vice President of C.A.R. (Full Bio)

This week Bruce is joined again by Leslie Appleton-Young. She is the Vice President and Chief Economist for the California Association of Realtors; a statewide trade organization with over 165,000 members. Leslie directs the activities of the association’s member information groups, she oversees the analysis of housing markets and broker industry trends, member communications and member development activities.  She is well known as a speaker in the California real estate community.

UCLA’s business school has projected that California’s unemployment will remain in the double digits until 2013. This does not surprise Leslie. We are experiencing cyclical job losses, because there are few sectors that have not been impacted. To some extent, our problem is structural. Sending jobs over seas to lower wage countries has been occurring for a long time.

During the downturn of the 90s, there were job losses concentrated in California due to a loss of migration. Leslie does not believe this is our main problem though. Our biggest issues are coming from the restructuring of corporations and businesses. 70% of costs are directly tied to labor, so the easiest way to become more efficient is to use fewer workers.

Leslie is uncertain of the impact that gas prices will have on real estate. Gas affects real estate because it impacts the overall economy. High prices means there will be less discretionary income available for purchasing. The cost of gas also impacts the ability of people to move further out. The UCLA forecast assumed there would be no significant long term reductions in gas supply, and that we would be able to weather the increases, but we do not know that.

Affordability is close to an all time high. The gap between California’s affordability and the U.S.’s affordability is much closer now as well. The California median home price peaked at $594,000, and the U.S. peaked at $230,000, so we were still over twice as expensive. California’s current median is $300,000, and the U.S. median is $170,000, so there is still a big gap between the two.

Bruce believes this all time low for housing affordability is going to give us a boost in migration. The challenge will be to provide job opportunities for the migration.

In a county like Riverside, where it is common to develop 250 to 300 subdivisions every year, there is going to be a huge increase in demand. The inventory that has been bought from lower priced years will be able to increase in value. Bruce notes that Riverside has only developed 10 subdivisions this year.

There has been a significant increase in household size over the last couple years, because families have been moving in with each other to weather the bad economy. Many people who chose to move in with their family will be looking to move once the economy improves, and that will create demand.

In another five years, Leslie believes down payment requirements and interest rates will be significantly higher. Getting rid of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will affect us for many years. The private sector will be demanding higher risk premiums to originate.

A number of surveys from Fannie Mae and others show that many people still aspire to own a home. Leslie does not believe this will change. However, financing will become a bigger burden. Leslie does not believe 30 year mortgages will be very popular in the future. Bruce believes that we must be heading towards a lower percentage of home ownership.

In business, when you have an advertising campaign that you know will work, that is called a control piece. The only way you change that control piece is by changing one thing at a time to see if something emerges as better or worse. We had a control piece called a zero down VA loan. This program produced less than 1% foreclosures, and FHA did the same thing for a long time. Unfortunately, we changed everything about how we performed loans within 5 years, and we got a bad result. Bruce does not understand why we won’t go back to the way things were before.

In 2005, the GSE delinquency rate was 7.8%, and the private label delinquency rate was 28.6%. In 2006, GSEs had a delinquency rate of 23.3%, and the private label delinquency rate was 45.1%. For loans originated in 2007, the GSE rate was 14.9%, and the private label rate was 42%. This information must have been overlooked by the people discussing what to do with our financial system in the future. Fannie and Freddie worked until 2005 and 2006 when then decided to get into the subprime and Alt-A market. Bruce is not sure if our sufferings would have been eased much had Fannie and Freddie not gotten involved in subprime lending. If they had not touched subprime, there still would have been a large amount of inventory being overpriced because of the easy financing available at that time. What we did wrong was pretend that it was okay to loan people money based on a stated income and without a down payment.

39% of defaults between 2006 and 2008 were due to home equity borrowing. Leslie does not believe it is healthy for people, as well as the real estate market, to borrow in such a way that they owe more on their home after a year of ownership. Bruce does not totally agree with that, because in the past that behavior was not as simple. Leslie believes it is bad for people to leave themselves no cushion. Bruce agrees with this statement.

In 1934, FHA did 80% LTV loans with 20 year terms. Gradually we went to 30 year terms, and the down payment requirements went to 10, to 5, to even 3%.

Bruce is concerned that if we lower loan limits, it will cause a significant price drop, and then you will have a continuous negative equity position. Bruce and Leslie hopes the government does not restrict the market too much in this manner. Leslie has noticed that the government’s decisions tend to be imbalanced.

When Bruce bought his first home and mowed the grass for the first time, it made him feel like a man. Being an owner changed the way he felt about himself. It is a big deal, and it is one of the big reasons for why people come to California.

Bruce was very frustrated when the president of MERS was questioned in front of the senate, because not one of the senators read his deposition. If you are going to make a huge decision against a very influential company like MERS, why not take an hour to try and understand the problem?

CAR’s website is www.car.org

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

RealtyTrac reports foreclosure notices decreased 14% in January. The House of Representatives voted to end FHA’s Short Refi program. According to a Zillow survey, 51% of Americans said the housing crisis has not affected their overall willingness to buy a home. The U.S. government posted the largest monthly deficit ever last month.

In The News:

USA Today – “Foreclosure activity slows sharply in February” (3-10-11)

“Some 255,101 properties received at least one foreclosure-related notice in February, down 14% from January and down 27% from the same month last year, foreclosure listing firm RealtyTrac said Thursday.”

NAHB - “Optimistic Outlook for Multifamily Development, NAHB Indices Show” (3-10-11)

“The Multifamily Production Index (MPI), which tracks developer sentiment about new construction on a scale of 1 to 100, is at 40.8 –up more than 5 full points since the previous quarter and the highest number since the fourth quarter of 2006. The MPI component tracking developers’ perception of market-rate rental properties is at 51.7 – the first time this component of the index has been above 50 since the second quarter of 2007.”

Mercury News – “Mortgage rates: Average on 30-year fixed loans ticks up to 4.88 percent” (3-10-11)

“Freddie Mac says the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage ticked up to 4.88 percent from 4.87 percent the previous week. It hit a 40-year low of 4.17 percent in November.”

Housing Wire – “House votes to end FHA Short Refi” (3-10-11)

“The House of Representatives voted Thursday to terminate the Federal Housing Administration’s Short Refi program. The House Financial Services Committee cleared the bill, H.R. 830, last week. The House voted 256 to 171 to kill the program.”

Housing Wire – “Zillow accommodates growing pool of renters” (3-10-11)

“Although 51% of survey respondents said the housing crisis has not affected their overall willingness to buy a home, 33% said they would be more likely to rent their next home than buy. In January, 30% of Americans surveyed said they would rent a home the next time around.”

Housing Wire – “Securitization investors plan increased activity in 2011: survey” (3-10-11)

“Principia said 70% of investors and issuers said they plan to increase involvement in the ABS markets over the next year, with 50% expecting to ramp up activity in the next six months.”

Housing Wire – “Jobless claims rose 7% last week to 397,000″ (3-10-11)

“Initial jobless claims rose 7% last week, moving away from the nearly three-year low of the prior week although remaining lower than 400,000 once again. The Labor Department said the seasonally adjusted figure of actual initial claims for the week ended March 5 increased by 26,000 to 397,000.”

Housing Wire – “Mortgage modifications down 9% in January: Hope Now” (3-10-11)

“Mortgage servicers, investors and insurers participating in the Hope Now alliance completed 101,000 permanent modifications in January, down 9% from the month before. Of those that were completed, 73,000 were proprietary modifications, nearly three times the 27,957 done through the government’s Home Affordable Modification Program.”

Housing Wire – “Two mortgage trade groups suing Fed over loan originator compensation” (3-10-11)

“The National Association of Independent Housing Professionals sued the Fed for its final rule on loan originator compensation and yield spread premium disclosure under Regulation Z. The NAIHP states the rule will put mortgage brokers ‘at a significant and a permanent competitive disadvantage and will stifle competition in the mortgage lending industry to the detriment of consumers.’”

Bloomberg - “U.S. Posts a Record $222.5 Billion Monthly Budget Shortfall” (3-10-11)

“The U.S. government, facing a record annual fiscal shortfall and a congressional impasse over financing, posted the largest monthly deficit ever in February, reflecting increased spending. The gap totaled $222.5 billion last month compared with a $220.9 billion shortfall in February 2010, according to the Treasury Department”

Bloomberg - “Home Remodeling to Rebound in U.S. as Rising Confidence Spurs Renovations” (3-10-11)

“Spending on remodeling probably will rise 9.2 percent to $125.1 billion in the first quarter from $114.6 billion a year earlier, according to Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies. A 13 percent increase forecast for April through June would be the largest jump in five years, a report by the Cambridge, Massachusetts-based center shows.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, the MBA reported that mortgage loan application volume had increased by 0.5 percent. The percent of first-time buyers increased to 47 percent in 2009. FHFA was sued over attempts to secure records of political contributions from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. John Burns claimed that the real estate market was still in bad shape.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

Home Construction Rises in January

January Sales and Price Report

Majority of Freddie Mac borrowers refinanced to fixed-rate loans in 4Q 

West Coast Foreclosure Sales Clime to Pre-Robo-Signing Levels 

FHA to increase mortgage insurance premiums one quarter of one point

Mortgage application volume increased 14.6% this week. All 50 state attorney generals are now involved in an investigation into lenders that filed faulty foreclosure affidavits. The FHFA is urging GSEs to accelerate the foreclosure process once the AG reviews are over. Foreign investors are planning to purchase large amounts of commercial property.

In The News:

Mortgage Bankers Association – “Mortgage Refinance Applications Jump as Rates Continue to Fall in Latest MBA Weekly Survey” (10-13-10)

“The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 8, 2010. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 14.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 14.8 percent compared with the previous week.”

NAR - “NAR Says Families Will Suffer if Foreclosure Freeze Continues” (10-13-10)

“Thousands of first-time and move-up buyers who hoped to make a foreclosed property their new home now face uncertainty, anxiety and possibly remorse as they worry that closing on their desired property could be in jeopardy. For many, the dream of homeownership could turn into agony if their home purchase is indefinitely delayed by a moratorium on foreclosures declared by some banks, the National Association of Realtors® said today.”

Los Angeles Times – “California to join multistate inquiry of foreclosures by banks” (10-13-10)

“California will join a multistate investigation into whether banks violated laws by cutting corners while foreclosing on homes as the Obama administration made clear Tuesday that it would not support a nationwide moratorium.”

Housing Wire – “Jaime Dimon: ‘Almost no chance we made a mistake’ with foreclosures” (10-13-10)

“JPMorgan Chase said new processes are being put in place to ensure it fulfills all procedural requirements going forward. ‘There’s almost no chance we made a mistake,’ Jaime Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, said during the conference call.”

Housing Wire – “It’s official: All 50 state AGs to review foreclosures” (10-13-10)

“Alabama Attorney General Troy King announced Wednesday he is joining the other 49 AG offices in a nationwide investigation into lenders that filed faulty foreclosure affidavits.”

Housing Wire – “St. Louis Fed economist questions wisdom of more quantitative easing” (10-13-10)

“An economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis wonders if additional large-scale securities purchases by the Fed will produce the desired effects of driving down interest rates, boosting employment, and preventing deflation.”

Housing Wire – “FHFA urges GSE servicers to accelerate foreclosure process after reviews” (10-13-10)

“On Oct. 1, DeMarco said Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are working with their third-party servicers to identify any loans that may be have been foreclosed improperly. On Wednesday, FHFA urged servicers to proceed on foreclosures as quickly as possible after all foreclosure alternatives have been exhausted.”

Bloomberg - “Investors Target U.S. Commercial Properties After Drop in Values, DTZ Says” (10-13-10)

“Commercial-property investors are preparing to spend more in the U.S. next year after more than two years of declining values, DTZ Group Plc said. Funds and investment companies increased the capital available for deals in the Americas by 54 percent since December to $97 billion, the London-based real-estate broker said in a report today. Most of this will be used for U.S. transactions.”

Bloomberg - “Banks to Shift From `Extend and Pretend’ in Real Estate Loans, Survey Says” (10-13-10)

“Lenders will shift toward amending commercial mortgages next year instead of extending maturities, leading to increased sales of distressed real estate, according to a survey of almost 900 property professionals. More than 63 percent of those surveyed said they expect maturing loans to be modified, while 7.1 percent said loans will continue without changes to defer losses, a practice known as ‘extend and pretend.’ About 16 percent of respondents said real estate with maturing loans will be foreclosed on and put on the market, and almost 14 percent said properties will be sold by borrowers, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP said in a report today.”\

Looking Back:

One year ago, Fitch reported that 60 percent of borrowers from 06 to 07 had negative equity and owed more than their homes are worth. Interthinx’s Mortgage Fraud Index estimated that fraud decreased by 4 percent from Q1 to Q2 of 2009, but increased by 7 percent from Q2 of 2008. Statistics from MDA DataQuick showed that Southern California home sales increased by 5 percent from October of 2008.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor event calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

Ivan Choi President of REOMac (Full Bio)

September 17^th, 2010, The Norris Group returns with its award winning event I Survived Real Estate 2010. The Norris Group has assembled an incredible line up of industry experts to discuss the state of REO from the inside. Topics will include regulatory intervention and aftermath, bulk buying, myths and facts, and opportunities emerging for real estate professionals. 100 percent of the proceeds support the Orange County affiliate of Susan G. Komen for the Cure. This event would not be possible without generous help from the following platinum partners: Foreclosure Radar and Sean O’Toole, the San Diego Creative Real Estate Investors Association and Bill Tan, Investors Workshops and Shawn Watkins and Angel Bronsgeest, Invest Club for Women and Iris Veneracion and Bobby Alexander, Claudia Buys Houses, The Business Press, Frye Wiles, MVT Productions, and White House Catering.

This week Bruce is joined by Ivan Choi. He is a fifteen year veteran in mortgage banking with a background in finance, technology, retail loan origination, and servicing. He just started his own company called Savia Home Loans. Also, he is president of REOMac; a national non-profit trade organization.

Ivan currently lives in Corona, and previously lived in Irvine. For the last 15 years he has been working in retail mortgage banking. For 14 of those years, he worked with Countrywide Home Loan, which was acquired by Bank of America. He worked with Bank of America for another year, and then decided to start his own mortgage banking company. He has a second job with a national REO outsourcing company.

Mortgage banking is different than mortgage brokering. A mortgage broker originates loans, and puts them through to a major bank for funding. The broker attempts to find the best possible fit, and best possible pricing, for the homebuyer. The mortgage banker is fulfilling loans directly out of their own funding capacity. The money that a mortgage banker uses is essentially his or her own.

Presently, it is very difficult to start a mortgage banking company, because of the meltdown. Another prominent mortgage executive, who worked with one of the big banks until 2008, decided to start his own mortgage banking company. The biggest warehouse line he was able to get was worth about $700,000. That is not worth a week’s worth of loans.

Once your loan money is entirely lent out, you can try to keep that loan in your books, or you can try to sell it to an investor. That investor will provide you with liquidity to buy and sell another loan. You can either sell the underlying note and service the loan yourself, or you can sell both the note and the servicing rights. This is not understood by all people, but servicing rights to the loan has a certain monetary value as well.

In 2006, mortgage bankers were amazed by how generous loan guidelines were. On the flip side, when the mortgage market melted down, Ivan could not believe how difficult it was to obtain credit. We swung the pendulum from allowing too many people to obtain credit, to now allowing too few to obtain it. What is traditionally observed as a “makes sense” loan is now very difficult to obtain.

The present model of mortgage banking is that an originator makes a lot of loans for home buyers, they then package those loans into securities and sell them on the secondary market. Unfortunately, the demand for those securities in the secondary market has dried up, so we no longer have the liquidity that mortgage originators relied on to make loans in the first place. That is why many of those “makes sense” loans can no longer be made today. Currently, Fannie, Freddie, and FHA make up over 70% of the business for mortgage originators and lenders.

New Vista Asset Management Company is a San Diego-based company established 4 years ago by two veterans of the mortgage banking business. The two partners, Jim Park and Jerry Acosta, have a lot of connections both in the mortgage industry and the political world. New Vista serves as an REO asset management company. Any bank that cannot handle REO inventory can hire a company like New Vista to offload those REOs. New Vista is special because it is a multicultural company. Normally, Ivan does not pay attention to the cultural differences between companies, however, this is currently a significant difference because the government is more willing to work with culturally diverse businesses.

Inventory levels have changed pretty dramatically over the last couple years. Foreclosure inventory has been building up for the past couple years. This is because the foreclosure process has slowed down. Ivan believes it will take another 6 to 12 months before we can feel that we are in a foreclosure market. This will be a big relief for real estate agents, because many of them were hurt in 2007 and 2008.

Ivan defines “shadow inventory” as the backlog of foreclosures that have not yet finished the foreclosure process. When people use the term shadow inventory, they often use it to imply there was some evil conspiracy by big banks and the government to artificially hold in properties from the market to do 1 of 2 things: 1) to hold properties back and parcel them out, on a limited basis, to preserve valuations and earn a better return than what they would have received. 2) Mortgage bankers are holding inventory from the market to play magic accounting on the backside, which enables them to put out good quarterly earnings reports, so that their stocks won’t drop. As a former worker for Countrywide and Bank of America, Ivan believes these theories to be untrue.

Fannie and Freddie have double the REOs from last year, but the REO agents do not. Fannie expects approximately 1 million properties to finish the foreclosure process between the 4^th quarter of 2010 and the 1^st quarter of 2011. Asset management companies and banks can only process so many of those properties. Ivan believes that California cities are probably not capable of getting rid of that many properties with their current level of staff.

In 2008, Mike Novak-Smith had 900 REO listings. Today, he has 105, yet Fannie has double their amount of REOs. There does seem to be a disconnect between their ability to get properties onto the market. Perhaps the players have shifted, and the GSEs are understaffed.

On another topic, delinquencies are very high. In California, delinquency numbers have gone from 5% to 12% in the last 18 months, yet foreclosure numbers have gone down. Bruce believes that lenders do not actually own all these properties. Bruce believes that banks are refusing to foreclose on properties.

The government is involved in the foreclosure process now. There is a huge motivation for the federal government to modify loans or do short sales. The major servicers are now paranoid about going through the normal foreclosure process now, because if they do not fully document everything without offering ever possible solution to the borrower, the government will attack them. If the government believes the lender could have offered a loan modification but chose not to, then the lender gets dragged through the mud. There is a lot of pressure on the lenders to find other solutions.

REOMAC is having an educational event in October in Hollywood, Florida. The title of the event is “New Challenges, New Approaches”. The industry is preparing for a very different new year. Banks and servicers must satisfy their homeowners and their loan investors. At the same time, the government is beating up the banks. The end result is that we have a lot of government initiative and legal changes. The servicer must still find a way to make everyone happy, including the loan investor who has ultimate responsibility for the underlying note. Ivan believes many of the changes in 2011 will be legal related. Ivan does not believe there will be much of a change in public perception, because now everyone has had their shot at beating up people involved in the real estate industry.

The REO business is a very low margin business, and you must have a big team to run a lot of volume. REO inventory has decreased so dramatically that many professional REO broker shops have had to lay off people in the midst of the impending surge in inventory. All the good REO brokers are trying to figure out ways to scale up rapidly, because they don’t want to get caught with their pants down. It’s a Catch 22, because you can’t staff up too far in advance, but you still want to be ready when the opportunity hits.

HAFA guidelines were released on April 1^st. Those guidelines were a game changer, because it caused the government to be heavily involved in mortgage servicing and foreclosure processing. Ivan does not believe that short sales will pick up to the high degree that we need them to pick up. Short sale numbers are increasing right now, but when you compare the overall number of short sales to the number of foreclosures, you can see that short sale numbers are still very small. REO is where all the business is going to go.

The event for REOMAC is taking place on October 20^th thru the 23^rd in Hollywood, Florida. It is the 25^th anniversary of a very worthwhile organization.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

Thank you for being a Gold Sponsor for I Survived Real Estate 2010: Adrenaline Athletics, Benton Investment Group, Community RE-Invest Group, Delmae Properties, Elite Auctions, Entrust California, Everlast Photography, Inland Empire Investors Forum, Keystone CPA, Landwood Title, Las Brisas Escrow, Leivas Financial Services, Mike Cantu, North San Diego Real Estate Investors Association, Northern California Real Estate Investors Association, Personal Real Estate Investor Magazine, Realty 411 Magazine, San Jose Real Estate Investor Association, Rick and LeeAnne Rossiter, San Jose Real Estate Investor Association, Starz Photography, Summit Solutions, Tony Alvarez, Wealth Point, and Westin South Coast Plaza.

Mike Novak-Smith REO Agent (Full Bio)

September 17^th, 2010, The Norris Group returns with its award winning event I Survived Real Estate 2010. The Norris Group has assembled an incredible line up of industry experts to discuss the state of REO from the inside. Topics will include regulatory intervention and aftermath, bulk buying, myths and facts, and opportunities emerging for real estate professionals. 100 percent of the proceeds support the Orange County affiliate of Susan G. Komen for the Cure. This event would not be possible without generous help from the following platinum partners: Foreclosure Radar and Sean O’Toole, the San Diego Creative Real Estate Investors Association and Bill Tan, Investors Workshops and Shawn Watkins and Angel Bronsgeest, Invest Club for Women and Iris Veneracion and Bobby Alexander, Claudia Buys Houses, The Business Press, Frye Wiles, MVT Productions, and White House Catering.

This week Bruce is joined by Mike Novak-Smith. Mike has been a household name in the REO business since the 90s. He has gained national recognition for his work in the REO industry.

The first REO Mike ever closed was in January of 1991. RT Resolution Trust Corporation was the first REO client he ever had. That company took care of the failed savings and loans assets from the 80s. He thought using that company was a good idea because he sensed a changed in the market at that time. Resolution Trust called and offered him listings that no one else was interested in, and Mike believed he could handle them.

Mike reads a lot and he pays attention to the market. He viewed REOs as a way to survive every month. He knew that if he got 2.5 percent of the deals on the market, then he could make the house and car payment. Once he started doing it, he liked it, because it was more like a business than chasing deals. The audition for the business was hard, but once you have experience, its much less stressful.

There are a few surprises for agents wanting to get into the REO business. First, you have to do a lot of work. Second, you have to put out a lot of money to get properties sold. Third, you get treated rather harshly, because the people you work with are busy and they don’t have time to sugar coat their messages to you. A lot of people can’t wait to be an REO agent, until they become one. You have to be a superior skill level to do REO work in comparison to retail work. It is a very competitive business. If you make a mistake, there are 100 people who want your place.

In the 90s, the peak years for Mike were from 96 to 98. Mike had been in the business for a few years prior to 91 doing retail jobs. All the way through January, 2004, he had a lot of REO deals. From 04 to 05, he did not have any REO deals.

In 2003, Mike closed 110 REO deals. When the REO deals started drying up, Mike was one of the last people his clients were using. When the REO deals came back in 2005, he had 3 REOs within the first month.

Most of the people that Mike knew from the 90s have moved onto bigger things. If they did well during that time period, then they probably moved up to corporate positions.

In the 90s, much of Mike’s inventory consisted of new 4 bedroom, 3 bath houses. Mike gets a lot of new homes as well. He even gets homes that haven’t finished construction.

Currently, Mike’s business is somewhat unpredictable. He might have a several week period where he gets a large number of REO deals, but then the following week he will get zero. This could be a function of the trustee sales changing their bid prices.

The people REO brokers work with do not entirely know the policies of their employees. You hear a lot of rumors, but the only people who really know, are the ones working at the top of the business. Mike occasionally receives calls from corporate leaders in which they ask for his opinion on certain policy changes. Mike does not believe that anyone has complete control over policy changes, because the government makes frequent policy changes as well.

At the peak of this cycle, Mike had over 900 files, and maybe 600 active files in the MLS. Currently, properties spend months in preparation before being listed. Once they are listed, they usually sell fairly quickly.

Properties now require a bit of time before they become vacant. Occupants understand now that they can get money to move out. The magic number for convincing an occupant to move out tends to be between $2,000 to $4,000. Some of these occupants have severe financial problems, but for many of them, its just a game.

The length of time it takes for a property to become an REO after delinquency is 15-18 months. When the property actually goes into foreclosure, the renting tenants are often surprised. Mike advises renters to get their rental property from a broker who manages rentals. Don’t try to just rent a house off of CraigsList. Quite frequently, people will begin renting a house and end up in foreclosure two months later. Bruce was once personally asked by his own potential tenants if he had a loan on the rental house and if it was current. These renters had obviously had this experience in the past.

Most asset managers now communicate through proprietary websites. Offers come in electronically through email. There is not a lot of verbal communication, and fax machines aren’t being used either.

Asset managers have the power to take offers when the asking price is normal, but when an offer is unusual, then the offer must be taken to the next level.

When Mike gets a listing, he often gets the property directly from the lender, but there are also many properties that are outsourced to other companies. Some lenders have received too many REOs for their own labor force, so they have to outsource their work. Outsourcers typically use the same system as the lender.

Mike gets paid back 99 percent of the time if he follows the lenders standards. You cannot do all the work yourself. You must have staff to take on the work load of an REO agent. As an REO broker, you wear many hats, and accountant is one of them.

In 2007, lenders were openly admitting that they would list their properties with the highest broker opinion. Bruce believed that was the perfect system to fail. Lenders have now become more willing to listen to reasonable BPOs, and they often ask for multiple price opinions. Many BPOs today are being performed by inexperienced brokers who will do the work for cheap. Mike thinks this is unwise. When BPOs are done by experienced brokers, the price opinions usually come out fairly similar.

Short sales are becoming more popular right now. Mike closed a couple short sales last year, and he is doing more right now.  He does not prefer short sale deals, because those deals can often take more time than they are worth. Bruce is confounded by the length of time required to do a short sale. Short sales should not take six months to finish. The last short sale Mike finished took six weeks to close. Many short sales involve PMI companies, loan investors, servicers, and possibly an HOA law suit. You have to get all the people involved in the deal to take a loss, and that negotiation takes some time.

There is no compensation for an REO broker until he finishes the short sale. Someone getting into the short sale business could be six months away from a check for every deal they work with. If the broker cannot get someone to help with the paper work, then that short sale is not worth the time.

Mike sees REO levels increasing in 2011. These REOs will come from failed loan modifications and state programs. Short sales will probably increase as well. In the 90s, short sales were very popular, but loan servicers and investors eventually realized that it was easier just to foreclose, because then they could control the process.

Right now, if an inexperience broker attempts to perform a short sale, they often take up to six months to get the deal done. When this happens, the loan servicer will choose to have an REO.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

Thank you for being a Gold Sponsor for I Survived Real Estate 2010: Adrenaline Athletics, Benton Investment Group, Community RE-Invest Group, Delmae Properties, Elite Auctions, Entrust California, Everlast Photography, Inland Empire Investors Forum, Keystone CPA, Landwood Title, Las Brisas Escrow, Leivas Financial Services, Mike Cantu, North San Diego Real Estate Investors Association, Northern California Real Estate Investors Association, Personal Real Estate Investor Magazine, Realty 411 Magazine, San Jose Real Estate Investor Association, Rick and LeeAnne Rossiter, San Jose Real Estate Investor Association, Starz Photography, Summit Solutions, Tony Alvarez, Wealth Point, and Westin South Coast Plaza.

Peter Wayman

Senior REO Sales Director for Freddie Mac

September 17^th, 2010, The Norris Group returns with its award winning event I Survived Real Estate 2010. The Norris Group has assembled an incredible line up of industry experts to discuss the state of REO from the inside. Topics will include regulatory intervention and aftermath, bulk buying, myths and facts, and opportunities emerging for real estate professionals. 100 percent of the proceeds support the Orange County affiliate of Susan G. Komen for the Cure. This event would not be possible without generous help from the following platinum partners: Foreclosure Radar and Sean O’Toole, the San Diego Creative Real Estate Investors Association and Bill Tan, Investors Workshops and Shawn Watkins and Angel Bronsgeest, Invest Club for Women and Iris Veneracion and Bobby Alexander, Claudia Buys Houses, The Business Press, Frye Wiles, MVT Productions, and White House Catering.

This week Bruce is joined by Peter Wayman. Peter is the Senior REO Sales Director for Freddie Mac. He oversees the design of sales strategies and how those strategies are applied across the REO portfolio. His group oversees the retail sales process, auctions and investor sales. Peter is responsible for the Affordable Housing Strategy: selling homes to organizations engaged in neighborhood stabilization. Peter came to Freddie Mac with 32 years of executive relocation experience. In that position, he has won national awards and is in the hall of fame.

The major product offered by the relocation industry has been the purchase of the transferee’s home. Peter is accustomed to valuing and selling on a cost plus basis. He does not have to foreclose and evict transferees, but he does have to call executives of companies and tell them the value of their homes. The relocation industry operates globally.

Freddie Mac’s primary method for selling homes is to put them in the hands of great brokers. Also, special incentives are offered to owner occupants to encourage purchasing. Freddie Mac’s focus is to make home buying possible, and to do that by positioning their homes fairly for owner occupants. To effectively use this strategy, homes must be conditioned for financing, buyer’s closing costs must be addressed, and home warrantee programs are offered as well. Freddie is biased towards getting owner occupants into homes.

History shows that if an owner occupant lives in a house, their occupancy improves their neighborhood. Freddie Mac is concerned with neighborhood stabilization. When owner occupants invest their money into a house, they connect more with the community and have more pride in their community.

In 2009, Freddie Mac ended the year with 71% of its homes going to owner occupants. This year, we are slightly under that percentage. We are in a prime selling season now, and Freddie Mac is finishing one of their special programs for owner occupants.

The ratio of 70:30 for owner occupants to other types of owners is considered acceptable by Freddie Mac. Freddie realizes that some of their properties are not currently suitable for occupants. Freddie puts the Neighborhood Stabilization funds into the hands of an NSP grantee for properties in bad condition. The NSP grantee uses the funds to renovate the home, add green energy options to it, and then sell it to an affordable buyer. These homes often receive $30,000 in renovations, which is not something that many private investors can do. Most of these funds are targeting extremely hard hit areas and some homes are even being considered for tear down.

Not all investors do a bad job of renovating properties, but Freddie Mac has to deal with a wide scope of investors. Freddie Mac considers responsible investors to be a viable option for getting rid of inventory.

NSP funds are delivered from a city or county. The largest portions of the funds come from the federal government, but state governments, land banks, and non-profit associations are also engaged in neighborhood stabilization. Freddie Mac is open to working with all of these companies.

Companies with NSP funds have an advantage when looking for properties owned by Freddie Mac. Freddie Mac uses an NCST (National Community Stabilization Trust), which provides access to grantees with NSP funds. The NCST works with a large number of grantees and servicers. It creates an interchange which shows all of the servicer’s properties on a google-type map. The grantees may then look to see if there are properties being offered in their designated census tracks for neighborhood stabilization. They then immediately have the opportunity to ask the servicer for a home’s price. All of this happens during the pre-list phase of moving REO inventory, so grantees have the opportunity to view properties while Freddie Mac is still valuing the properties.

Some cities have had trouble spending their funds for damaged properties. This may be due to the difference in reaction time when compared to a private investor. Some of the NSP-1 funds had to be committed as of today, but there are also NSP-2 and NSP-3 funds. Each grantee takes a different approach on assembling their programs. Some of them got started more quickly than others.

Freddie Mac has been heavily involved in the modification process and in foreclosure alternatives. Peter believes those two tools are becoming much more effective, because the servicers and Freddie Mac are developing more effective automation. Also, staff training has improved, and the real estate community is becoming more educated. All of these things have helped make modifications and foreclosure alternatives more effective.

Banks are beginning to address serious delinquencies. At the end of the 4^th quarter of 2009, serious delinquencies peaked at 4.13 percent of all mortgages. This percentage has been coming down for 5 months in a row.

We are also seeing the REO inventory increasing. In January 2009, we had 21,000 REO homes, and in January 2010, we had 45,000. At the end of July 1^st, we had 62,000 REOs. That 62,000 represents inventory in redemption, eviction, pre-list, listed, sold and going into closing. Generally speaking, over 50 percent of REO inventory is in redemption, eviction, and pre-list. That number is currently closer to 55 percent.

Peter believes it has been proven that losses are lessened by modifications. The sooner you address the problem, the lower the costs are in the process. A foreclosure should be considered a last resort.

Modifications had a 60 percent failure rate. Peter believes that as the modification process has gone to using written verification and careful coaching, the failure rate has gone down.

In September, Peter will be a part of the I Survived Real Estate 2010 panel. He will be speaking in front of about 400 eager investors, who will be trying to figure out how to get their share of Freddie Mac’s properties, and possibly even get a chance at a bulk purchase.

Peter is very excited to work with this charity program. Freddie Mac has to be primarily concerned with getting rid of properties at the lowest cost to the tax payer. Freddie Mac has discovered that nothing works better than listing properties with a great real estate broker, exposing it to the entire market, having a property priced and conditioned right, and allowing that exposure to drive a retail sale within 90 to 120 days. This focus tends to work extremely well. There are some assets that do not sell within that time frame. When assests don’t sell well, Freddie Mac turns to ballroom auctions and online auctions, and finally to bulk sales for investors. Investor bulk sales are not perceived as having the highest potential recovery rate. Less than 0.5 percent goes through bulk investor sales. Freddie Mac is currently developing a better strategy for bulk sales. There should be more bulk sale activity in the future.

Some states have different real estate problems, and there are some problems that necessitate different solutions. In Florida, Freddie Mac has a waver on REO condo requirements, so Florida condos make great candidates for bulk sales. Properties with Chinese drywall, low values, no insurance options, no occupancy certificates, or environmental problems will be more likely to end up in a bulk sale. Lots of investors contact Freddie Mac asking to buy all the $200,000 properties in California and Arizona. Peter responds to those investors saying, “You mean all those properties that I get multiple offers on within the first two weeks of being listed on the market?” Freddie Mac does not need investors to buy those properties.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

Thank you for being a Gold Sponsor for I Survived Real Estate 2010: Adrenaline Athletics, Benton Investment Group, Community RE-Invest Group, Delmae Properties, Elite Auctions, Entrust California, Everlast Photography, Inland Empire Investors Forum, Keystone CPA, Landwood Title, Las Brisas Escrow, Leivas Financial Services, Mike Cantu, North San Diego Real Estate Investors Association, Northern California Real Estate Investors Association, Personal Real Estate Investor Magazine, Realty 411 Magazine, San Jose Real Estate Investor Association, Rick and LeeAnne Rossiter, San Jose Real Estate Investor Association, Starz Photography, Summit Solutions, Tony Alvarez, Wealth Point, and Westin South Coast Plaza.

Existing home sales experienced a dramatic decrease of 27.2 percent in July, according to the NAR. Housing production decreased by 10 percent in June. The CAR reports California home sales decreased 20.8 percent in July. Statistics from the California Employment Development Department show that 7,100 jobs were lost from July 2009.

In The News:

NAR - “July Existing-Home Sales Fall as Expected but Prices Rise” (8-24-10)

“Existing-home sales1, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, dropped 27.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.83 million units in July from a downwardly revised 5.26 million in June, and are 25.5 percent below the 5.14 million-unit level in July 2009.”

CBIA - “California Housing Production Increases in July, CBIA Announces” (8-24-10)

“According to statistics compiled by the Construction Industry Research Board (CIRB), permits were pulled for 4,165 total housing units in July, up 35 percent from the same month a year ago but down 10 percent from June. Permits for single-family homes totaled 1,951, down 9 percent from July 2009 and down 31 percent from the previous month, while multifamily permits totaled 2,214, up 134 percent from a year ago and up 25 percent from May.”

Mortgage Bankers Association – “Wells Fargo Tops U.S. Commercial/Multifamily Servicers in MBA Mid-Year Rankings Report” (8-24-10)

“The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its mid-year ranking of commercial and multifamily mortgage servicers as of the end of June 30, 2010. Topping the list of firms is Wells Fargo with $462.8 billion in U.S. master and primary servicing, followed by PNC Real Estate/Midland Loan Services with $307.9 billion, Berkadia Commercial Mortgage with $202.6 billion, Bank of America Merrill Lynch with $133.4 billion and KeyBank Real Estate Capital with $124.7 billion.”

CAR - “July sales and price report” (8-24-10)

“California home sales decreased 20.8 percent in July compared with the same period a year ago, while the median price of an existing home rose 10.4 percent from July 2009, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) reported today.”

Housing Wire – “Disappointing Homes Sales Unlikely to Reverse Course” (8-24-10)

“Predictions that home prices may drop into double digits continue to drag down sales. Bill Gross, managing director of the world’s biggest bond fund, PIMCO remarked that the idea of a rebound anytime soon is ‘ludicrous.’ In a meeting at the US Treasury last week, Gross called for combining the government-sponsored entities into one entity that insures the majority of current and future originations.”

Housing Wire – “60% of Delinquent Mortgages Not in Loss Mitigation” (8-24-10)

“According to a study from the State Foreclosure Prevention Working Group (SFPWG), 60% of borrowers with mortgages delinquent by 60 days or more are not being forwarded to the servicer’s loss mitigation department.”

Bloomberg - “Purchases of Existing Homes in U.S. Probably Slumped in July” (8-24-10)

“Sales of U.S. previously owned homes probably plunged in July to the lowest level since March 2009, evidence the market is restrained by foreclosures and limited job growth, economists said before a report today. Purchases dropped 13.4 percent from June to a 4.65 million annual rate, according to the median of 73 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. A decline would be the third in a row.”

Orange County Register – “Corona del Mar is O.C.’s ‘coldest’ market” (8-24-10)

“The pricier the town, the harder it is to sell a home there right now, the latest O.C. home inventory report from Steve Thomas at Altera Real Estate shows. Corona del Mar, for example, was Orange County’s ‘coldest’ market in the past 30 days. In theory, it would take 11 1/2 months to sell all the homes on the market there at the current sales pace, the highest ‘market time’ for any O.C. community in the 30 days ending on Aug. 19. Other ‘cold’ markets likewise tend to be home to some of O.C.’s most expensive housing.”

Orange County Register – “Real estate, building jobs down 5% in July” (8-24-10)

“Indeed, construction suffered the largest year-over-year decline among every employment category, the state Employment Development Department reported. Construction jobs fell by 7,100 positions from July 2009, down nearly 10%. Construction jobs totaled 65,700 in July, state figures show.”

Orange County Register – “Broker: No tsunami of repo’d homes to hit market” (8-24-10)

“This shadow inventory has to be worked through, but is not going to occur as a tsunami of distressed properties to hit the market all at once. Instead, we are going to witness slow increases and drops over the next few years. This slow absorption will not pull down values like it did at the beginning of this downturn and it will keep a lid on any substantial appreciation. Once employment improves, the pathway to an eventual healthy and stable recovery will occur.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, 45,079 new and resale houses and condos were sold statewide in one month. Home sales in the Bay Area hit a 4 year high. The Federal Reserve accepted $2.3 billion in investor requests for financing to purchase legacy commercial mortgage-backed securities.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor event calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

Sean O’Toole Founder and CEO of ForeclosureRadar (Full Bio)

September 17^th, 2010, The Norris Group returns with its award winning event I Survived Real Estate 2010. The Norris Group has assembled an incredible line up of industry experts to discuss the state of REO from the inside. Topics will include regulatory intervention and aftermath, bulk buying, myths and facts, and opportunities emerging for real estate professionals. 100 percent of the proceeds support the Orange County affiliate of Susan G. Komen for the Cure. This event would not be possible without generous help from the following platinum partners: Foreclosure Radar and Sean O’Toole, the San Diego Creative Real Estate InvestorsAssociation and Bill Tan, Investors Workshops and Shawn Watkins and Angel Bronsgeest, Invest Club for Women and Iris Veneracion and Bobby Alexander, San Jose Real Estate Investors Association and Geraldine Barry, Claudia Buys Houses, Frye Wiles, MVT Productions, and White House Catering.

This week Bruce is joined by Sean O’Toole. Sean is the Founder and CEO of ForeclosureRadar.com. ForeclosureRadar is the only company that tracks every foreclosure in California, Arizona, Nevada, Washington and Oregon. It makes updates daily on all foreclosure auctions. Prior to ForeclosureRadar, Sean spent 15 years building and launching software companies. In 2002, Sean entered the foreclosure business, and bought and sold over 150 properties.

Bruce thinks everyone who is a trustee sale buyer should be a member of ForeclosureRadar. When Sean started Foreclosure Radar, there were only about 40 trustee sale buyers who bought the majority of the deals within the state, but now there are thousands. The invention of the lower bid has created activity. We wish they would drop their opening bids even lower.

5 to 10 billion dollars worth in properties go to the courthouse steps every month. 80 percent of those properties go back to the bank as REOs. The number of REOs have decreased 50 percent from July 2008. However, there are still a huge number of properties being taken back by banks. From a historical perspective, we still have an outrageously high number of REOs.

People tend to have this mentality that nothing bad can happen from here on out, because they don’t think the lenders will unload a bunch of inventory into the market. However, in 2007 and 2008, that is exactly what they did. Up until the end of 2008, regulations required you to file a notice of default after 60 to 90 days of delinquency. In September of 2008, Paulson changed the rules, and since then, they have changed the rules to mark to market. Lenders now have this mentality that discourages them from foreclosing so long as there is some hope of receiving payment at some point in the future.

People are wondering when all the shadow inventory is going to show up and ruin everyone’s day. Shadow inventory has a few different holding tanks. The banks are holding it and not releasing it. In 2008, there was growing evidence that banks had inventory that were not being listed. In 2009, banks started selling more foreclosures than they were taking back. In the mean time, we had delinquencies that were over 90 days delinquent and were not going into foreclosure. Some properties are as much as 180 days delinquent. We have 1 million homeowners in California that are not making payment, but only 200,000 in foreclosure, and only 15,000 to 20,000 being foreclosed on per month.

There is a report claiming that “once a person is behind, the odds of them making that payment current again without a loan modification is 1%”. Sean thinks that may be true historically, but right now, the situation is worse than that. In the past, people went delinquent because of job problems, but this time, they are going late because we had a massive credit bubble that doubled home prices fictitiously. We have now corrected those prices, but we have 4 trillion dollars in excess mortgage debt. People are realizing that they are never going to get that money back, and paying the interest doesn’t help them.

ForeclosureRadar noticed an increase in investor activity in 2009. Subscriptions increased slightly around that time. Right now, people are concerned that the economy and housing might double-dip. Bruce thinks that a double-dip will probably occur.

A lot of ForeclosureRadar’s growth has come from builders and commercial real estate brokers. The court house steps have become much more competitive because of these two groups. They can’t just stop working because their niche isn’t doing well.

From 2002 to 2006, good investors could get a 50 to 75 percent return on capital. In 2007, the market went away because the banks weren’t dropping the bids. In 2008 and 2009, Sean heard plenty of stories about investors getting an 80 percent return on capital. It got really good for a little while, but over the past six months, the market got a lot more competitive. There are plenty of risks with buying at auctions. Bruce believes that someone makes a mistake every day at the courthouse that alters their financial life for a while.

The government has decided that it is better to avoid taking a property back to the lender. ForeclosureRadar is tracking the lenders who are willing to work problems out. Investor short sales concern Sean, especially if the deal is being bought to be flipped. Some people are claiming you can make a lot of money by doing a short sale through a double escrow. Sean thinks people who do that are going to get themselves into trouble. Bruce interviewed the FBI on this subject, and the FBI described the people who do double escrows as perpetrators. There are short sale opportunities out there, but there is a lot of risk involved. It can be difficult to convince lenders that you have added a significant amount of value to a recent short sale.

Lenders understand that auctioned properties are being sold at a discount. On a short sale, lenders believe that a market sale is being made, and they will not like the idea of selling a short sale at $100,000 below market.

Deutsche Bank recently made a report on mortgage servicers and how long it takes to do a short sale. With prime mortgages, GMAC took six months on average, CitiGroup took 7.5 months, Wells Fargo took 8 months, and Countrywide took 13 months. There is a buyer attached to the end of these deals, and no one is going to wait 13 months.

People involved with HAFA brag about their ability to sell within six months, and Bruce thinks that is ridiculous. The problem is that people are not coming to terms with the losses they are going to take. The government also has a few policies that are affecting speed. If Bruce was attached to that business, he would be very frustrated.

Mortgage insurance companies know they will have a better income and have less of a loss with a short sale, but if they have that loss right now, then they’ve got a payout to make. If they do not approve a short sale, and force a property into foreclosure, they may not have to payout for 8 or 9 months.

Sean believes that companies are moving away from principal reductions. Freddie claimed that they are not going to do principal reductions, because they have been tasked with protecting tax payer funds and they cannot just give out principal. If GSEs, who hold a lot of the mortgage debt, start giving out principal reductions, then that comes directly at the cost of the taxpayers. Freddie has a deed-in-lieu lease back program with a lease option. If someone does a deed-in-lieu under this program, they have a two year waiting period before they get to buy a property, and Bruce has the feeling that the property they will buy is that same property they were previously in. That would cause less volatility in the market, because it would discourage buyers from moving around.

Sean recently did some research for American Banker Magazine on jumbo loans. Loans under $417,000 are the fastest to be foreclosed on. Mini jumbos, which range from $417,000 to $729,000, take 30 days longer to foreclose on, and it takes even longer to foreclose on big jumbos. If lenders are struggling to deal with reality anywhere, it is at the high end of the market. Lenders sometimes try to aggressively foreclose with the hope of scaring the borrower into paying, but when they don’t get scared, the borrowers will simply vacate and move, and then the foreclosure gets cancelled. When lenders do not foreclose because they do not want the house, they are usually cancelling foreclosure by the masses. These lenders are often working to get people into the HAFA program, so that they can get a short sale or deed-in-lieu. Sean thinks the HAFA program is just like HAMP last year. It is not meant to conclude a bunch of short sales, it is meant to put people through another six months of delay only to tell them that they do not qualify.

Sean O’Toole’s website is www.foreclosureradar.com

Sean will be on the I Survived Real Estate 2010 panel in September.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

Thank you for being a Gold Sponsor for I Survived Real Estate 2010: Delmae Properties, Elite Auctions, Entrust California, Inland Empire Investors Forum, Keystone CPA, Las Brisas Escrow, Leivas Financial Services, Mike Cantu, North San Diego Real Estate Investors Association, Northern California Real Estate Investors Association, Personal Real Estate Investor Magazine, Realty 411 Magazine, San Jose Real Estate Investor Association, Tony Alvarez, and Westin South Coast Plaza.