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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 12/30/09

Wednesday, December 30th, 2009

Today’s News Synopsis:

A survey from Bank of America shows that only 12 percent of the institutions who received TARP relief believe that the program positively impacted their operations. Barclay’s estimates that credit availability may increase during the next 6 to 12 months. Default Research reports that pre-foreclosure filings in California decreased in several counties. Statistics from Freddie Mac show that mortgage purchases decreased by 13% in November.

In The News:

Housing Wire – “Only 12% of Bank Execs Think TARP Leaves Positive Impact” (12-30-09)

“While larger financial institutions complete full repayment of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), as is the case with the $45bn repaid last week by Citi (C: 3.32 -1.48%) and Wells Fargo (WFC: 26.82 +0.52%), a bank survey completed by the Bank Administration Institute (BAI) claims only 12% of respondents feel the program positively impacted their operations.”

Housing Wire – “Origination Funding May Increase as Credit Restrictions Ease in 2Q10, Analysts Predict” (12-30-09)

“A recent set of research focusing on 2010 strategies for investors of agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) by analysts at Barclays Capital finds that credit availability for mortgage originations may increase in the next six to 12 months. However, the situation will remain tight in the next three to six months, they add, as the market grapples with ongoing risk aversion sentiments, loan repurchases stabilization and new regulatory procedures that will need this time to take hold.”

Housing Wire – “Foreclosure Notices Drop in Major Counties: Default Research” (12-30-09)

“The number of pre-foreclosure filings in California, which include notices of default and notices of trustee sales, dropped across several counties in November, according to statistics from Default Research, which tracks the notices. The hard-hit Los Angeles County had a 10% decline from last month to 3.08% in November. Orange County, where 3.4% received a filing, had a drop of 8% in November. In Riverside County, 9.2% received a pre-foreclosure filing, a 13.7% decline from October.”

Housing Wire – “NAMB Criticizes Regulation Z Amendment” (12-30-09)

“In a letter to the Federal Reserve Board, the National Association of Mortgage Brokers (NAMB) said that certain aspects of the proposed rule to amend Regulation Z would impede market competition. Section 404 of the Helping Families Save their Home Act of 2009 took effect in May and requires a 30 day notice to mortgage borrowers of their loans being transferred for securitization. Called Regulation Z, the Fed’s interim final rule enforces the requirement under the Act.”

Housing Wire - “Fannie’s Serious Delinquencies Nears 5% in November” (12-30-09)

“After mortgage giant Freddie Mac (FRE: 1.42 -5.33%) reported a 13% drop in mortgage purchases in November, Fannie Mae (FNM: 1.16 -7.20%) shows its book of business declined at an annualized rate of 6.7% in the same month, according to its monthly summary”

Housing Wire – “List of HAMP Servicers Moves Past 100″ (12-30-09)

“The US Treasury Department added four new servicers to the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP), raising the total number of participants to 103, according to the latest Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) transaction report.”

Bloomberg - “GMAC Said to Discuss U.S. Aid Package of $3 Billion or More” (12-30-09)

“GMAC Inc., the home and auto lender that counts the U.S. government as the largest stakeholder, is discussing with the Obama administration a third bailout of $3 billion to $4 billion, said a person familiar with the matter.”

Orange County Register – “Tough market eyed for high-end housing” (12-30-09)

“There is a chance this is not the bottom for the all price ranges! However, under $500,000 looks to be in pretty good shape, although appreciation will continue to be very faint! Above $500,000 it will continue to be a tough market, as there are very few move-up buyers from the lower price ranges with money to support the higher price structure”

Looking Back:

One year ago, the Case Schiller index showed that home prices dropped by 18 percent in 20 major U.S. cities. Lockhart estimated that the government would need to provide lower borrowing costs to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The Federal Reserve forecasted that mortgage modifications would be significantly hindered by second mortgages. Fannie Mae’s portfolio of mortgages increased by 9.3 percent in one month.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 12/22/09

Tuesday, December 22nd, 2009

Today’s News Synopsis:

Research from the Office of Thrift Supervision and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency show that the number of U.S. homes in foreclosure have passed the 1-million mark. The NAR reports that existing homes sales increased by 7.4 percent in November. According to IHS Global Insight, U.S. home prices increased by 0.2 percent during the 3rd quarter of 2009. Barclay’s predicts that the unemployment rate will reduce to 9.1 percent by the end of 2010.

In The News:

Los Angeles Times – “More prime mortgages default in 3rd quarter” (12-22-09)

“For the first quarter ever, the number of homes in foreclosure with mortgages serviced by U.S. national banks and savings and loans topped the 1-million mark, according to figures released Monday by the Office of Thrift Supervision and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. The percentage of prime borrowers whose loans were 60 or more days past due doubled from the July-to-September period a year earlier. And more than half of all homeowners whose payments had been lowered through modification plans defaulted again.”

NAR - “Another Big Gain in Existing-Home Sales as Buyers Respond to Tax Credit” (12-22-09)

“Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – rose 7.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 6.54 million units in November from 6.09 million in October, and are 44.1 percent higher than the 4.54 million-unit pace in November 2008. Current sales remain at the highest level since February 2007 when they hit 6.55 million.”

Housing Wire – “Treasury Spends $4.1bn on Affordable Housing Programs” (12-22-09)

“The amount of American Recovery and Reinvestment Act funds distributed to state agencies to promote affordable housing is running at nearly $4.1bn after the latest round of payouts, the Treasury Department said.”

Press Enterprise – “Local, national retail hiring still sluggish” (12-22-09)

“According to an analysis of Labor Department data by the Chicago-based outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, the U.S. retail sector grew by a net 321,300 jobs in November, for an increase of 37 percent from November 2008. In the Inland region, the California Employment Development Department reported last week, the net gain of 550 retail jobs in November marked a 3.6 percent bump from the prior month, but the total retail workforce of 157,800 was actually down 5.5 percent from a year ago.”

Housing Wire – “Housing Prices End Two-Year Skid, says IHS Global Insight” (12-22-09)

“The two-year slide in US housing prices ended in Q309 and increased 0.2% over the previous quarter, according to a quarterly report form IHS Global Insight, a provider of economic and financial analysis. Although prices increased on a national average, 161 of the top 330 metropolitan areas had declines in prices, but it’s still an improvement from Q408 when prices dropped in 317 metro areas.”

Housing Wire – “FHFA Home Price Index Up 0.6% in October” (12-22-09)

“US housing prices increased 0.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis from September to October, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA) monthly house price index. The increase comes after the FHFA adjusted the index’s August to September reading from no change to a 0.4% decline. For the 12 months ending in October, prices fell 1.9%. The index is 10.8% below its April 2007 peak.”

Housing Wire – “BarCap: Commercial Real Estate Demand to Start Back This Summer” (12-22-09)

“according to Barclay’s report on the 2010 outlook for commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), the labor market is showing encouraging signs in recent months, which is the best indication of growing demand in commercial space. Barclay’s analysts forecast “sustained positive job growth” beginning in Q110 and an addition of 2.3m jobs by the end of the year. This translates to a 9.1% unemployment rate at the end of 2010, which is not yet healthy but a sign of recovery.”

Housing Wire – “Securitization Systematic Risk to Lessen in 2010, Barclays Says” (12-22-09)

“Due to the ‘herculean’ and ‘unprecedented’ efforts of myriad Fed bailouts, Barclays Capital is reporting that, going into the New Year, the systemic risk posed by the securitized markets will be much lower, although the agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market remains a concern.”

Bloomberg - “Mortgage-Bond Yields Jump to 4-Month High, Boosting Loan Rates” (12-22-09)

“Yields on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage securities climbed to the highest in four months, signaling interest rates on new home loans may extend a rebound from record lows this month and blunt a housing recovery.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, policy makers were considering the abolition of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Foresight Analytics estimated that $530 billion in commercial mortgages were due for refinancing over the next three years. CIRB reported that the number of construction permits being pulled increased by 8 percent from the previous month. The pace of existing home sales decreased by 10.6 percent from 2007 to 2008.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 12/14/09

Monday, December 14th, 2009

Today’s News Synopsis:

Research from Barclay’s Capital shows that Fannie Mae’s losses may exceed $200 billion. Under new FHA rules, at least 50 percent of the units in a project must be owner-occupied.

In The News:

Housing Wire – “Multifamily Developer Fairfield Files for Bankruptcy” (12-14-09)

“Privately held multifamily real estate developer Fairfield Residential filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, the San Diego-based company said in an announcement on its Web site.”

Housing Wire – “Citi to Repay TARP as Treasury Sheds JPM Investment” (12-14-09)

“Citigroup (C: 3.75 -5.06%) on Monday revealed plans to repay $20bn of government funds through the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP)”

Housing Wire – “Amherst Sees ‘Inconsistent’ Triple-A Re-REMIC Ratings” (12-14-09)

“Residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) originally rated triple-A have been downgraded to below investment-grade levels, leaving investors with insufficient cash flows. Re-REMICs allow for maximized cash flows on downgraded bonds by re-tranching the original security into a new, properly enhanced triple-A security and a junior bond, according to Amherst.”

Housing Wire – “Fannie Mae Losses May Exceed $200Bn: BarCap” (12-14-09)

“Eventual losses at mortgage giant Fannie Mae (FNM: 1.10 +5.77%) could exceed $200bn, posing a risk of receivership after year-end when limitations on the Treasury Department’s authority to support the agencies return, according to research Friday by Barclays Capital (BarCap).”

Bloomberg – “‘Substantial’ Bank Losses Needed to Fix Housing, Goodman Says” (12-14-09)

“Banks will need to take ‘substantial’ writedowns on home-equity loans to enable loan modifications that will allow the U.S. housing market to recover, according to Amherst Securities Group LP. The government’s existing mortgage-modification program will fail to avert many of the 9 million to 10 million looming foreclosures because it doesn’t reduce principal for borrowers, about a quarter of whom owe more than the current value of their houses, Laurie Goodman, a mortgage-bond analyst at Amherst”

Inman - “4 hot real estate tech tools” (12-14-09)

“With Boopsie, you don’t have to type in a URL, wait for your browser to load the URL, and then enter the address or click on a map and wait for those to load as well. Instead, Boopsie uses your phone’s GPS to pull the 10 nearest properties. For agents, it also provides MLS details, key box locations, as well as the listing broker’s contact information. Boopsie also provides one-click access to nearby closed and pending sales, backup offers and leases. At the NAR trade show, Boopsie loaded all this information in about two seconds.”

Orange County Register – “South coast sees gain in distressed homes” (12-14-09)

“Two weeks ago, Dana Point’s percentage of foreclosures and short sales was 22.4%, which has risen slightly to 22.6%. Laguna Beach also saw an increase in distressed inventory. The city’s percentage of distressed inventory rose to 8.6% from 7.7% two weeks ago.”

Realty Times – “Washington Report: FHA Condo Rules” (12-14-09)

“FHA won’t insure mortgages in buildings or complexes where less than 30 percent of the units haven’t already been sold. At least 50 percent of the units in a project must be owner-occupied or sold to purchasers who intend to occupy them. ”

Realty Times – “Stop Before You Reduce the Price” (12-14-09)

“Take a really close look at what IS selling in the neighborhood or market area. Can you identify any common denominators among the selling listings versus the non-selling ones? Maybe all the sales are of four-bedroom homes and your listing has three. Maybe it’s the two-story models that are selling and yours is a ranch. You can’t fix that, of course, but it might help you understand (and explain to your seller). ”

Looking Back:

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates to 1 percent. The median single-family hoe price in San Francisco fell 16.6 percent in October. Nancy Pelosi announced Senate plans for a $500 billion economic stimulus plan.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 12/07/09

Monday, December 7th, 2009

Today’s News Synopsis

The MBA reports that delinquency rates increased during the third quarter for most mortgage investor groups. Bernanke claims that the recovery should continue for at least a year, but the U.S. still has some trouble to overcome. Six more banks were shut down Friday, which will cost the FDIC a total of $2.384billion.

In The News:

Mortgage Bankers Association – “MBA Report Shows Third Quarter 2009 Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Performance Falls in Weakened Economy” (12-7-09)

“Delinquency rates continued to increase in the third quarter for most commercial/multifamily mortgage investor groups, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Commercial/Multifamily Delinquency Report.”

MSNBC - “Bernanke: Too soon to tell if recovery will last” (12-7-09)

“The Fed chief repeated his belief that the recovery will continue at least into next year. But he cautioned that the economy is confronting some ‘formidable headwinds’ — including a weak job market, cautious consumers and still-tight credit.”

Housing Wire – “TARP Costs Narrow as Treasury Sheds Capital One Investment” (12-7-09)

“Initial projections put the cost of the financial stabilization efforts at more than $500bn, which factored into the President’s budget in February. Of that projection, $300bn was expected directly from TARP, and another $250bn was included in the budget to cover needed resources beyond TARP’s $700bn.”

Housing Wire – “Fannie Prepays Plunge ‘Unexpected’ 6%: BarCap” (12-7-09)

“The prepayment rate among Fannie Mae (FNM: 0.91 -1.09%) 30-year notes slipped 6% ‘unexpectedly’ after the government-sponsored entity (GSE) suspended buyouts related to the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP), according to monthly commentary by Barclays Capital. The buyout delay in this month’s reporting period for Fannie indicates a spike in buyouts — and the prepayment speed — next month as mortgages are modified and withdrawn from mortgage-backed security (MBS) pools, according to researchers.”

Housing Wire – “Monday Morning Cup of Coffee” (12-7-09)

“Regulators shut down six banks Friday, bringing to total number of failed institutions to 130 this year. The total estimated cost to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.’s (FDIC) deposit insurance fund is $2.384bn.”

Housing Wire – “Mortgage Insurers Deny 20-25% of Claims: Moody’s” (12-7-09)

“Mortgage insurance rescission rates jumped to 20-25% in recent quarters, relative to historical 7% averages. Moody’s said mortgage insurers rescinded about $6bn of claims since January 2008 and could rescind another $2bn to $4bn of claims during the next few years.”

Orange County Register – “O.C. mechanics liens drop 23%” (12-7-09)

“The Real Estate Research Council of Southern California reports that in the third quarter the number of Orange County mechanics liens filed were 730 – that’s -23.4% vs. a year ago. Mechanics liens are typically filed when contractors working on a real estate property — home or commercial, new or old — go unpaid for their services.”

Orange County Register - “Hear why O.C. property tax collections jumped” (12-6-09)

“Considering the wave of the ugly economic news out there, we were surprised to learn that early Orange County property tax collections were up $54 million as the Dec. 10 deadline for first installment payments neared.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, the delinquency rate for one-to-four-unit residential properties stood at 6.99 percent. 500,000 jobs were cut within one month’s time. The U.S. Treasury offered a multi-billion dollar proposal to lower the interest rate on 30-year mortgages to 4.5 percent.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 11/30/09

Monday, November 30th, 2009

Today’s News Synopsis:

Edward Pinto expects 20 percent of FHA’s mortgage loans to default. The Federal Reserve bought $16 billion worth of mortgage-backed securities last week. According to Michael Barr, Over 650,000 mortgage modifications are currently being processed, and over 375,000 borrowers will receive permanent modifications by the end of this year. A survey from Barclay’s shows that as a U.S. citizen’s net worth increases so does the proportion of their wealth invested in real estate.

In The News:

CNBC - “Fannie Mae to Tighten Lending Standards” (11-26-09)

“Fannie Mae plans to raise minimum credit score requirements next month and limit the amount of overall debt that borrowers can carry relative to their incomes”

The Daily Reckoning – “Federal Housing Administration Encourages More Bad Mortgage Loans” (11-26-09)

“An astounding 20 percent of the Federal Housing Administration’s $725 billion portfolio of mortgage loans will go into default as the result of the agency’s recent campaign to subsidize first-time homebuyers with little cash and weak credit. That prediction comes from an industry insider who has seen it all happen before: former chief credit officer of Fannie Mae, Edward Pinto, who recently testified before a House committee on the gathering storm of FHA mortgage defaults.”

Orange County Register – “Banks forced to buy back more loans” (11-26-09)

“Banks had to buy back $7.1 billion in defaulted single-family loans in the third quarter to reimburse mortgage investors, up from $1.9 billion in the previous quarter. Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Call Report information shows that most of the buyback demands fell on JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America. Chase repurchased $2.7 billion in defaulted loans and BoA repurchased $2.3 billion to satisfy investor demands.”

Finance My Money – “FDIC too broke to Takeover Banks? No Bank Failure Friday on Black Friday. Can 5,300 Employees Deal with $5.3 Trillion in Deposits?” (11-30-09)

“The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) was hammered this week when a third quarter report demonstrated that the FDIC was running in the red to the sum of $8.2 billion. This is troubling since the FDIC protects deposits in member banks up to $250,000 and funds covered by the deposit insurance fund (DIF) are over $5.3 trillion, this amount is over one-third of our nationwide GDP. The FDIC as of Q1 of 2009 has 5,381 employees.”

San Francisco Chronicle – “Gov’t increases pressure on mortgage industry” (11-30-09)

“The Treasury Department said Monday it will withhold payments from mortgage companies that aren’t doing enough to make the changes permanent. Officials will monitor the largest of the 71 participating mortgage companies via daily progress reports. The goal is to increase the rate at which troubled home loans are converted into new loans with lower monthly payments. At the end of October, more than 650,000 borrowers, or 20 percent of those eligible, had signed up for trials lasting up to five months.”

Inman – “Non-investors get Fannie REOs first” (11-27-09)

“Fannie Mae has launched a new program that’s intended to give public entities and buyers looking for a home to live in, rather a property to flip, a first crack at homes Fannie has foreclosed on. Under Fannie Mae’s ‘First Look’ initiative, only offers from buyers who intend to be owner occupants and buyers using public funds will be considered during the first 15 days a property is on the market. Offers from investors will be considered only after the first 15 days have passed.”

Housing Wire – “Fed Continues Slower Agency MBS Purchases” (11-30-09)

“The Federal Reserve continued its slower mortgage bond purchases, buying up $16bn of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) from government-sponsored entities in the week ending November 25. The Fed’s purchases shifted more toward Freddie Mac (FRE: 1.03 -6.36%), with $6.5bn of Freddie MBS purchased this week, from $5.9bn last week. The Fed bought $6bn from Fannie Mae (FNM: 0.88 -6.38%), compared with $4.55bn last week. The Fed also bought $3.5bn from Ginnie Mae this week, according to details released by the New York Fed.”

Housing Wire – “FHA Proposes Lenders Maintain $2.5m Net Worth” (11-30-09)

“Federal Housing Administration (FHA)-approved lenders could be required to hold increased net worth, meet stronger approval criteria and be held responsible for the actions of the mortgage brokers they do business with, if a recently proposed FHA rule is enacted. The rule is designed to reduce risks to the single-family insurance fund, which finances the FHA guarantees of mortgages in case of default. The FHA reported to Congress recently the insurance fund dipped below the Congressional-mandated 2% capital reserve threshold.”

Housing Wire – “375,000 HAMP Trials to Go Permanent, Treasury Says” (11-30-09)

“Under HAMP, the Treasury allocates capped incentives to participating servicers for the modification of loans on the verge of foreclosure. According to the latest report, more than 650,000 trials modifications are underway. Saxon Mortgage Services leads all servicers by providing trials to 44% of its eligible portfolio, according to the report. More than 375,000 borrowers are on track for a permanent modification by the end of the year, according to Michael Barr, assistant secretary for financial institutions at the Treasury.”

Bloomberg – “Wealthy Investors Plan to Buy More Real Estate, Barclays Says” (11-30-09)

“Twice as many people plan to raise their investment in commercial and residential property as intend to reduce it, the Barclays Wealth unit said in an e-mailed statement today. The richer the individual, the greater the proportion of wealth is placed in real estate, the survey found.”

Orange County Register – “Irvine home listings drop along with temps” (11-30-09)

“As of last Wednesday, there were 461 active homes for sale in Irvine, with an expected market time of 2.06 months, according to a biweekly report done by Steven Thomas of Altera Real Estate. That’s a benchmark tracking how many months it theoretically takes to sell all the inventory in the local MLS for-sale listings at the current pace of pending deals being made.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, the CIRB reported that the value of non-residential building in 2008 had reached a total of $1.3 billion. Evan Gentry of G8 Capital predicted that Orange County would need another five years before real estate began to appreciate again. New home sales decreased by 18 percent in the West during October of 2008.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 11/24/09

Tuesday, November 24th, 2009

Today’s News Synopsis:

The CIRB reports that homebuilders pulled 6 percent less permits from September. American banks decreased lending by 2.8 percent in the third quarter. The FOMC suspects that the economy will take 5 years to return to an acceptable rate of growth.  According to First American CoreLogic, 23 percent of all US homes are less valuable than the mortgages owed on them.

In The News:

CBIA - “California Housing Starts Continue Decline in October, CBIA Announces” (11-24-09)

“According to statistics compiled by the Construction Industry Research Board (CIRB), homebuilders pulled permits for 2,815 total housing units in October, down 6 percent from September, and down 33 percent from October 2008. Permits for single-family homes totaled 2,017, down 9 percent from the previous month and down 14 percent from same period last year, while multifamily permits totaled 798, up 5 percent from September but down 57 percent from a year ago.”

Los Angeles Times – “Index shows moderate gain in home prices in September” (11-24-09)

“Home prices in 20 U.S. cities ticked up modestly in September, marking the fifth consecutive month of improvement, according to a closely watched national index released this morning. The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller index increased 0.3% from the prior month on a seasonally adjusted basis, after a 1.1% rise in August. The index fell 9.4% from September 2008 and marked the narrowest year-over-year decline since the end of 2007.”

The Washington Post – “Decline in lending is largest since 1984″ (11-24-09)

“Lending by American banks plunged by 2.8 percent in the third quarter, the largest drop since at least 1984 and the fifth consecutive quarter in which banks have reduced lending, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. reported Tuesday morning.”

Housing Wire - “BarCap Acquires Commercial Real Estate Holdings Firm” (11-24-09)

“Barclays Capital, in a joint venture with Goff Capital, acquired Crescent Real Estate Equities Limited Partnership, or Crescent, from Morgan Stanley Real Estate Funding II.”

Housing Wire – “FOMC Sees Sustained Growth Five Years Away” (11-24-09)

“It will be at least five years before the economy experiences a sustainable rate of growth and levels of unemployment and inflation acceptable to the Federal Reserve, the Federal Open Market Committee said in its Nov. 4 meeting.”

Housing Wire – “FHFA Quarterly HPI Up Slightly in Q309″ (11-24-09)

“US house prices inched slightly higher in Q309 compared to Q209 in the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA) seasonally adjusted purchase-only house price index (HPI). The HPI uses sales price information from mortgages acquired by the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs), which increased 0.2% quarter-over-quarter. Year-over-year, the purchase-only HPI decreased 3.8% in the third quarter.”

Housing Wire – “Negative Equity, Not Job Loss, Primary Driver of Defaults” (11-24-09)

“if coming defaults are caused by unemployment, then the relevant response, says Goodman, would be to subsidize mortgage payments. On the other hand, if negative equity triggers defaults, then principal reduction must receive a higher priority in modification program waterfalls.”

Bloomberg - “Almost One in Four U.S. Homeowners Are ‘Underwater’” (11-24-09)

“The number of U.S. homes worth less than the debt owed on them reached almost 10.7 million, or 23 percent of all mortgaged properties, at the end of the third quarter, according to a report from First American CoreLogic.”

Orange County Register – “The biggest home seller mistakes” (11-24-09)

“Learn about your local market. What is selling and how long is it taking to sell? Find out what the trends are in your neighborhood. Is the market rising, falling or flat? How are local inventory levels?”

Looking Back:

One year ago, existing home sales decreased by 3.1 percent in October. The U.S. government announced a plan to spend 7.7 trillion dollars to ease credit problems. Downey Financial said it would file for bankruptcy.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 11/6/09

Friday, November 6th, 2009

Today’s News Synopsis:

Fannie recently developed the “Deed-for-Lease” program which allows qualified borrowers to deed their properties back to Fannie and continue to live in the house for up to 12 months. Fannie Mae is asking for $15 billion in support from the Treasury Department. Ronald Pressman from GE Capital Real Estate believes that the commercial real estate market is far from a recovery. The U.S. unemployment rate increased to 10.2 percent in October.

In The News:

Housing Wire – “BarCap Sees ‘Limited Use’ of Fannie’s Deed-for-Lease Program” (11-6-09)

“The Deed-for-Lease (D4L) program allows qualified borrowers to voluntarily deed the property back to Fannie and remain in the home on lease for up to 12 months. It targets borrowers that do not qualify for other workout alternatives like the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP), which allocates federal incentives to servicers that pursue modifications before foreclosure.”

Housing Wire – “Higher Unemployment Means Many More Distressed Properties to Come” (11-6-09)

“The US Conference of Mayors, a nonpartisan organization that represents cities with populations greater than 30,000, is sending out an industry warning that they expect employment rates to continue to climb in 2010, reaching levels as high as 15% in some municipalities. Servicers in these areas should prepare to face a much heavier distressed asset portfolio as borrowers struggle to cope with lose of income, says Dave Gatton, a director at the firm.”

Housing Wire – “Fannie Asks Treasury for $15Bn, May Sell Housing Tax Credits” (11-6-09)

“Financial fallout at mortgage giant Fannie Mae (FNM: 1.0299 -8.04%) continues to develop following the $19.8bn quarterly net loss, with the agency’s conservator confirming Fannie may sell as much as $2.6bn of low-income housing tax credits to investors and is requesting another $15bn in support from the US Treasury Department.”

Housing Wire – “Calif. Commercial Delinquency Rate Drops to 0.23%: CMBA” (11-6-09)

“The delinquency rate for commercial loans in California slipped 3bps from 0.26% to 0.23% in Q309, according to a survey conducted by the California Mortgage Bankers Association (CMBA).”

Housing Wire – “Fed Buys Another $16Bn of Agency MBS” (11-6-09)

“The Federal Reserve Bank of New York bought $16bn of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) from housing finance agencies Freddie Mac (FRE: 1.19 -4.80%), Fannie Mae (FNM: 1.03 -8.04%) and Ginnie Mae in the week ending November 4. The Fed bought $3.27bn from Freddie, $12.55bn from Fannie and $175m from Ginnie. For the first week in months, were no MBS sales listed in the week ending November 4.”

Bloomberg - “Commercial Property ‘Long Way’ From Rebound, GE’s Pressman Says” (11-6-09)

“The U.S. commercial property market is far from recovery and needs job growth, sustained low interest rates and further government support, said GE Capital Real Estate Chief Executive Officer Ronald Pressman. ”

Reuters - “Surge in temp jobs points to stronger U.S. economy” (11-6-09)

“U.S. temporary staffing — historically one of the first areas to show evidence of a jobs recovery — surged in October, adding about 34,000 jobs in a positive sign for the overall economy even as the overall employment rate rose above 10 percent.”

Orange County Register – “1 in 4 Surf City home sales distressed” (11-6-09)

Three charts are displayed which contain data on Huntington Beach listings and escrows.

Inman - “15 best iPhone apps for mobile agents” (11-6-09)

“Home Tracker. You’ve seen a lot of homes and it can make your head spin. Home Tracker keeps track for you. Store information on each property such as address, ZIP code, price and size; add notes; take photos; rate the property condition, location and appeal; star your favorites; map the property; and best of all, e-mail the summary of home tours to your clients.”

Realty Times – “Is Your Agent Experienced in Distressed Properties?” (11-6-09)

“the National Association of Realtors (NAR) is coming to the rescue with real estate agents specifically schooled in those subjects. A new Short Sales and Foreclosure Certification Program (SFR) trains agents how to manage short-sales, foreclosures, and real estate owned (REO or bank owned) transactions, and keeps agents current on national and state-specific information and regulations on these issues.”

Wall Street Journal – “Broader U-6 Unemployment Rate Hits 17.5%” (11-6-09)

“The U.S. jobless rate jumped up 0.4 percentage point to 10.2% in October, the highest level since April 1983. The government’s broader measure of unemployment shot up even more, rising half a point to 17.5%.”

Wall Street Journal – “Real Time Economics” (11-6-09)

“The bad news is that the jobs situation seems to have stalled out after improving dramatically through the summer. Private payroll declines actually widened slightly in September and in October. Thus, while we still strongly believe based on anecdotes, surveys, and other statistics that the labor situation is improving and that job losses will come to an end within a few months, the payroll numbers themselves do not indicate much positive momentum. In contrast to the payroll survey results, the household survey data were unambiguously negative. The unemployment rate surged to 10.2%, as the household gauge of employment plunged by almost 600,000 on top of September’s 785,000 drop. –Stephen Stanley, RBS”

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 11/4/09

Wednesday, November 4th, 2009

Today’s News Synopsis:

The MBA’s weekly mortgage survey shows that loan application volume increased by 8.2 percent, on a seasonally adjusted bases, from last week. The FHA expects 24 percent of all loans insured in 2007 to default. The Federal Reserve’s FOMC announced that it will not buy the full $200 billion debt amount that it had previously planned to take. BarCap reports that the 30-plus day delinquency rate increased to 5.5 percent in October.

In The News:

Orange County Register – “Are we headed for the same real estate winter doldrums?” (11-4-09)

“Historically, over a 30 year trend, 70% of all Orange County homes sell in the first seven months of the year. Seasonality is the term used by real estate experts. Typically, most buyers are active in the spring and summer markets. Once Labor Day comes, they tend to focus on the holidays. Activity drops off each month. December is the slowest month.”

Mortgage Bankers Association – “Mortgage Refinance Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey” (11-4-09)

“The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 30, 2009. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 8.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 7.9 percent compared with the previous week.”

Wall Street Journal – “FHA Digging Out After Loans Sour “ (11-4-09)

“Although the FHA has tightened credit standards, many of the 2007 and early 2008 mortgages are going bad. The agency expects defaults on 24% of all loans insured in 2007, and 20% of those backed in 2008.”

Housing Wire – “In This Corner: QuestSoft President and Founder Leonard Ryan” (11-4-09)

“Mortgage Disclosure Improvement Act (MDIA) is causing issues because most loan software products keep track of only the latest disclosure dates due to the complexity of the calculations. S.A.F.E. Act is causing the most internal personnel problems due to education and registration requirements that differ from state to state. Higher Priced Mortgage Loans (HPML) with the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) changes as of October 1 are becoming an out and out nightmare without automation because every time an Annual Percentage Rate (APR) changes or the note rate adjusts, the loan must be completely recalculated and possibly re-underwritten.”

Housing Wire – “Fed Won’t Purchase Full $200bn Agency Debt, FOMC Says” (11-4-09)

“The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) said it won’t purchase as much agency debt as it previously announced. The $175bn of agency debt purchases is less than the previously announced $200bn, but the FOMC said the amount ‘is consistent with the recent path of purchases and reflects the limited availability of agency debt.’”

Housing Wire – “CMBS Delinquencies Swell to 5.5% in October, says BarCap” (11-4-09)

“The 30-plus day delinquency rate jumped 41bps to 5.5% in October as current loans deteriorated and transferred to special servicers. For the past three months, delinquencies have grown an average of 34bps, and BarCap analysts expect the pace to increase through 2009 and into 2010.”

Housing Wire – “Pulte’s Closings Slip in Q309, Despite Merger” (11-4-09)

“Pulte Homes (PHM: 9.55 +3.47%) lost $361.4m, or $1.15 per share, in Q309, compared to $280.4m, or $1.11 per share, in Q308. Results were impacted by $86.7m in charges and transaction costs associated with Pulte’s merger with Centex Corporation, and $163.8m in inventory impairments and other land-related charges.”

Housing Wire – “GMAC’s Mortgage Unit Loses $747M in Q309″ (11-4-09)

“The Q309 loss was due primarily to legacy assets in GMAC’s mortgage operations. The unit experienced a pre-tax loss from continuing operations of $747m during the quarter. The loss is an improvement from Q308’s $1.9bn pre-tax loss from continuing operations”

Bloomberg - “Senate May Pass Homebuyer Tax Credit Extension Today” (11-4-09)

“The U.S. Senate may approve as early as today a $45 billion plan to expand a tax credit for first- time homebuyers, extend jobless benefits and provide tax refunds to money-losing companies.”

Bloomberg - “U.S. Home Price Slump to Last to Mid-2010, Pimco Says” (11-4-09)

“The slump in U.S. housing prices is unlikely to end before the middle of next year, and statistics portraying rising values are misleading, according to Pacific Investment Management Co. An S&P/Case-Shiller index for 20 metropolitan areas showed values rising 4.8 percent in the four months through August after a record 33 percent drop from its July 2006 peak. Such statistics are being distorted by U.S. efforts to reduce foreclosures, which are temporarily limiting sales of seized homes, said Scott Simon, Pimco’s mortgage-bond chief.”

Inman - “ZipRealty narrows losses” (11-4-09)

“ZipRealty Inc. edged closer to profitability during the third quarter, as transactions grew 30.6 percent and revenue by 12.8 percent from a year ago, the company said.”

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 10/27/09

Tuesday, October 27th, 2009

Today’s News Synopsis:

The Senate is considering a proposal that would extend and cap the tax credit at $7,290. Interthinx estimates that mortgage fraud risk increased by 11 percent from quarter 2 to quarter 3 of 2009. Goldman Sachs claims that home price stabilization will not last, but Bank of America feels that the outlook for home prices is more positive.

In The News:

Los Angeles Times – “Campaign targets mortgage modification scams” (10-27-09)

“Wachter along with other industry experts still worry that rising unemployment and more foreclosures could stifle the rebound. Another unknown is whether a temporary federal tax credit for first-time buyers will be extended to help boost sales. First-time homebuyers can receive a credit of 10 percent of the sales price, up to $8,000. The real estate industry is lobbying Congress to extend the credit past the Nov. 30 deadline. Top Democrats in the Senate are pressing a plan that would prolong the credit but gradually phase it out over the next year.”

Housing Wire – “House Price Stabilize a Year Ahead of Schedule: RBS” (10-27-09)

“The US economy and housing market in particular are recovering well ahead of the schedule previously anticipated by analysts and market observers, according to commentary by Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) economists.”

Housing Wire – “House Prices Post Seven Months of Yearly Improvement: Case-Shiller” (10-27-09)

“Home prices in the Standard & Poor’s (S&P)/Case-Shiller 10-City and 20-City Composite Home Price Indices, declined 10.6% and 11.3%, respectively, in August 2009 compared to August 2008.”

Housing Wire – “Mortgage Fraud Risk Surges 11% from Q209: Interthinx” (10-27-09)

“Fraud risk in the mortgage industry surged more than 11% from Q209 to Q309, according to a mortgage fraud risk index compiled by Agoura Hills, Calif.-based mortgage software developer Interthinx.”

Bloomberg – “MetLife, Lincoln May Avoid Commercial Mortgage Losses” (10-27-09)

“MetLife Inc., the biggest U.S. life insurer, and Lincoln National Corp. will probably sidestep commercial-mortgage losses because their biggest loans are ‘handily’ below property values, Barclays Plc said.”

Bloomberg – “Capmark Increased Office, Hotel Loans as Zell Saw Top” (10-27-09)

“In 2006 and 2007, Capmark originated $60 billion in commercial mortgage loans, most for office buildings, according to the Oct. 25 bankruptcy filing. While Capmark was lending, Zell was selling Equity Office Properties Trust at the top of the market for $39 billion, including debt.”

Bloomberg – “Goldman Sees ‘False Bottom,’ Merrill Sees ‘Treat’” (10-27-09)

“The stabilization in U.S. home prices won’t last, according to economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in New York. Their counterparts at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research see a ‘treat’ rather than a retreat”

Bloomberg – “Senate Close to Deal Replacing Homebuyer Tax Credit” (10-27-09)

“The deal would reduce the size of the tax credit to 10 percent of the sale’s price, capped at $7,290, the people said. The credit would be available on home purchases that are under contract by April 30, and borrowers would have 60 days more to close the sale. The existing credit is due to end Nov. 30.”

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 10/16/09

Friday, October 16th, 2009

Today’s News Synopsis:

President of John Burns Real Estate Consulting expects the commercial real estate market to do further damage to residential real estate. New legislation requires swap dealers and major swap participants to register with regulators and requires clearing organizations to provide transaction information to appropriate regulators. GE, MGIC, and Bank of America lost over 500 million in Q3 of 2009.

In The News:

Housing Wire – “BofA Loses $1bn as Net Loss on Home Loans Widens” (10-16-09)

“Bank of America (BAC: 17.26 -4.64%) lost $1bn or $0.26 per share during Q309, compared to a profit of $1.2bn during Q308. But company year-to-date income through Q309 was $6.5bn, compared with $5.8bn during the same period of 2008. BofA paid $1.2bn in preferred dividends for the quarter, including $893m in dividends to the US government”

Housing Wire – “BarCap Expects $2bn of CMBS TALF Requests” (10-16-09)

“Researchers at Barclays Capital (BarCap) expect the October facility date for a government loan program to receive an uptick of requests over the last subscription date. The October 21 Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) for commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) will likely see an increase in subscription volume over last month, BarCap said in a research report Friday”

Housing Wire – “MGIC Loses $971m on Increasing Delinquencies” (10-16-09)

“MGIC Investment Corp. (MTG: 6.42 -12.30%) posted a $517.8m net loss in Q309, compared to losses of $115.4m in Q308 and $184.6m in Q209. The net loss for the first nine months of 2009 was more than $1bn, compared to a net loss of $250m during the same period of 2008.”

Housing Wire – “John Burns Sees Distressed CRE’s Dual Effect on Housing” (10-16-09)

“The pain felt in the distressed commercial real estate (CRE) sector will affect the residential mortgage industry on two fronts. The affects range from banks’ disposition of residential assets to a reluctance to lend to the residential sector at all, according to commentary Friday by John Burns Real Estate Consulting. The consulting firm indicated banks may need to dispose of residential assets to concentrate on commercial real estate distress as it continues to pressure the banks. This should have the affect of creating land-buying opportunities at low prices and sparking a bit of recovery, the firm said”

Housing Wire – “Investor Coalition Says No to Interest-Only Mods” (10-16-09)

“The Mortgage Investors Coalition called on the Treasury Department to reject a proposal to offer distressed borrowers interest-only payments for a certain length of time as part of the terms of a Making Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) workout. The coalition said a proposal being formed by large banks to allow borrowers the option to make interest-only payments as part of a new HAMP workout plan fails to address the issue of negative equity. Such a proposal is not in the best interest of the housing industry and consumers, said the coalition, a recently formed trade group of asset managers holding more than $100bn in residential mortgage-backed securitizations (RMBS) on behalf of pension funds, college endowments and other investors.”

Housing Wire – “House Moves on Financial Regulatory Reform” (10-16-09)

“The legislation passed Thursday requires swap dealers and major swap participants to register with regulators and requires clearing organizations to provide transaction information to appropriate regulators. The bill also provides for public disclosure of aggregate data on swap trading volumes and positions in a way that protects the business transactions and market positions of individuals”

Housing Wire – “GE Real Estate Revenue Falls 46% from 2008″ (10-16-09)

“Revenue from General Electric’s (GE: 16.08 -4.23%) real estate division for the first nine months of 2009 declined 46% compared to 2008, the company said in its Q309 report. GE Capital Real Estate, which creates real estate debt and equity investment funds for institutional investors as well as finances commercial real estate transactions through commercial mortgages in North America, lost $538m in Q309, compared to profit of $244m in Q308. Year-to-date losses through Q309 were $948m.”

Housing Wire – “Calif. Bank Mod Program Beats Redefault Average” (10-16-09)

“Due to the modifications, overall loan delinquencies dropped as of Sept. 30, 2009, compared to peak levels. Loans 30 to 59 days delinquent fell to $70.6m, 55% lower than the $157.5m on January 31, 2009. Loans 60 or more days delinquent decreased to $16.8m, or 95% lower than the $431.3m on Feb. 28, 2009. Loans in foreclosure fell 38% to $281.8m from $456.2m on June 30, 2009.”

Bloomberg - “MGIC Declines After Posting Ninth Consecutive Loss” (10-16-09)

“MGIC Investment Corp., the largest U.S. mortgage insurer, fell 12 percent as the company’s quarterly loss quadrupled after a record number of homeowners failed to meet mortgage payments.”

Inman - “Pig-in-a-python economics” (10-16-09)

“Long-term rates rose again this week, the 10-year Treasury note and mortgages continuing the spurt that began last Friday, to 3.46 percent and just shy of 5.25 percent, respectively.”

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