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California Real Estate Headline Roundup

Posts Tagged ‘avm’

Poor Federal Implementation Has Made Real Estate Appraisals More Costly While Forcing Experienced Professionals Out Of The Appraisal Business

Wednesday, September 14th, 2011
I Survived Real Estate 2011

Sara W. Stephens, the 2011 president-elect of the Appraisal Institute, will join real estate analyst Bruce Norris on a panel of experts who will meet Oct. 14th at the Nixon Presidential Library to discuss the effects of current and proposed legislation and solutions to the nation’s real estate crisis

YORBA LINDA, Calif., Sept. 12, 2011 – Federal regulators’ efforts to lessen the influence of banks in the real estate appraisal process have ended up making residential appraisals more costly while forcing experienced professionals out of the valuation business.

“Strangely, real estate agents have reported that consumers are paying higher appraisal fees, yet fees actually paid to appraisers have declined in some cases by more than 40 percent,” Sara W. Stephens, MAI, the 2011 president-elect of the Appraisal Institute, stated in recent testimony to Congress.

Stephens will elaborate on this problem on Oct. 14th when she joins real estate analyst Bruce Norris of The Norris Group and other nationally known real estate experts at the Nixon Presidential Library to discuss solutions to the nation’s continuing real estate crisis.

The event, dubbed “I Survived Real Estate 2011,” is organized each fall by The Norris Group and features some of the most respected voices in real estate. This year’s lineup also includes:

  •  *  Doug Duncan, chief economist for Fannie Mae
  •  *  Vicki Golder, immediate past president of the National Association of Realtors
  •  *  Eric Janszen, founder and president of iTulip, Inc.
  •  *  Debra Still, chairman elect of the Mortgage Bankers Association
  •  *  Sean O’Toole, president of Foreclosure Radar

Norris, who has built a following in the real estate community and with news reporters after producing consistently accurate real estate forecasts, said the panelists should provide a clearer picture of what we can expect to happen in real estate markets in California and elsewhere in the coming months in addition to identifying potential solutions to the crisis as well as opportunities for real estate professionals and investors.

In a recent interview on Norris’s weekly radio program, Stephens said the problem in the appraisal industry is due to improper implementation of well-intended new policies – embodied in the Home Valuation Code of Conduct (HVCC) and the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act – that have prompted banks to obtain appraisals through appraisal management companies rather than working with appraisers directly.

While the new rules have effectively reduced “value pressure” on appraisers by creating a firewall between lenders and appraisers, they have also led to a situation where appraisal management companies are siphoning off a significant portion of the fees that were previously paid directly to the appraisers.

So instead of using the most experienced appraisers in each real estate market, who understandably command higher fees because of their local knowledge and expertise, some appraisal management companies often hire less experienced appraisers, sometimes including appraisers from out of the area who have little or no knowledge of local market conditions, in an effort to take a greater portion of the appraisal fees for themselves.

Stephens said this situation has been happening without the buyer’s knowledge and is leading to a devaluation or “commoditization” of appraisals, which ultimately hurts banks as well as consumers who count on an appraiser’s opinion of value to be as reliable and credible as possible.

Norris regularly interviews lenders, economists, builders and other housing experts on his weekly real estate radio talk show, which airs at 6 p.m. Saturdays on KTIE 590 AM in San Bernardino. Podcasts of Norris’s radio interviews can be accessed through his company website, www.thenorrisgroup.com.

100% of proceeds from the Oct. 14th event will be donated to the Orange County affiliate of Susan G. Komen for the Cure, the world’s largest grassroots organization dedicated to finding a cure for breast cancer.

The event has more than 25 sponsors, including ForeclosureRadar, HousingWire Magazine, Investors Workshops, InvestCLUB for Women, Frye Wiles Web and Branding, Real Wealth Network, the San Jose Real Estate Investors Club, and the San Diego Creative Investors Association.

For tickets and other information involving the Oct. 14th event, please visit www.isurvived2011.com. Reporters seeking advance interviews with Norris and panel participants before or after the event should contact Aaron Norris at (951) 780-5856.

 

241-TNG Radio – Sara Stephens 9-3-11

Friday, September 2nd, 2011

James-and-Lorraine

Sara W. Stephens

President Elect of the Appraisal Institute

(Full Bio)

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On October 14th, 2011, The Norris Group returns with its award-winning event I Survived Real Estate. An expert lineup of industry specialists join Bruce Norris to discuss current industry regulation, head-scratching legislation, and the opportunities emerging for savvy real estate professionals. 100% of the proceeds support the Orange County Affiliate of Susan G. Komen for the Cure. This event would not be possible without the generous help of the following platinum partners: Foreclosure Radar and Sean O’ Toole, Housing Wire, The San Diego Creative Real Estate Investors Association and President Bill Tan, Investors Workshops and President Shawn Watkins and Angel Bronsgeest, Invest Club for Women and Iris Veneracion and Bobbie Alexander, San Jose Real Estate Investors Association and Geraldine Berry, Real Wealth Networks, Frye Wiles Web and Branding, MVT Productions, and White House Catering, who will provide the 3-course meal for this black tie event. Visit iSurvived2011.com for more details.

Bruce is joined today by Sara W. Stephens. Sara is the 2011 President Elect of the Appraisal Institute. Fresh from testimony in front of Congress in July, Sara has been active at the Appraisal Institute in various capacities for 20 years. Sara graduated Magna Cum Laude from the University of Arkansas at Little Rock and has a Masters Degree from University of Arkansas at Fayetteville. She and her husband Richard own the oldest appraisal firm in Little Rock.

The Appraisal Institute is a professional association of more than 24,000 members. They provide the best and most comprehensive education, and their ethics and standards are a part of what has maintained them through the years. Their designations indicate quality and outstanding achievement on the part of those who have earned them. They are also a worldwide organization, located in about 60 countries in addition to the United States. They have members in China, Japan, Korea, Germany, and they are continuing to grow internationally as well as in the States. With several different countries, it is interesting the way people approach the idea of market value. They’re still looking at willing sellers and willing buyers, but in a lot of the countries they’re looking into working with and have contacts and relations with it’s a very different concept and therefore challenging for them to understand the nuances of each of the markets that they’re in. There are a lot of different property rights, and in some of the countries the state owns the ground and the individual owns only the improvement. But at the same time, it is very exciting to be able to expand their scope and membership past the United States boundaries.

If Bruce were an appraiser, in the last five years he would be very happy that there was an organization with access to Congress to talk about his industry and see if they could get some things not going their way to get back to normal. The Appraisal Institute is a voice for all appraisers, and while they represent their designated members and the quality they bring to the appraisers’ profession, their efforts are really for all people who are doing valuation work. Their voice is strong, and they have the only Washington D.C. office as well as lobbyists there who are working every single solitary day for appraisers and for the efforts that they need to continue to make their service to the public a continued part of the financial picture of the United States. The first time Legislation passed something that really affected the appraisal world was the HVCC and the Dodd-Frank Legislation, both of which they are still feeling the effects. The Dodd-Frank Legislation, especially, was an enormous effort and is beginning to be implemented this year. All appraisers are certainly looking at the different processes and trying to not only understand them but also understand how they impact their practice and their relationship with their clients and with the regulatory scene that they are certainly involved with them. The one thing that HVCC did was to reduce value pressure, which was very important. A lot of business at the time was refinancing, and the appraiser was asked quite often to reach for a number or there was a chance they wouldn’t get the appraisal. This was very common in a lot of situations, and the one thing HVCC did was it put a firewall between the appraiser and the person who was continually reaching for a specific number. Unfortunately, some of the good things about HVCC were overshadowed by some of the things that have become a real problem for appraisers, especially for residential folks who are finding themselves working not in concert with a particular lender or client with whom they may have developed a long-standing relationship. However, now the appraisal management companies and their interaction with appraisers are certainly different from the client/appraiser relationship that many knew in years past.

One of the things we really have to clarify is that long-standing relationships in most cases are earned because of expertise, not because of compliance with a number. You have a lot of appraisers that really deserve their status of being the first choice, and then all of a sudden they can’t be first. One of the things that has happened that the Appraisal Institute has seen more and more is that appraisers who have skills, training, professional development, and spend a lot of time with education and have concentrated in trying to be the best are now looking at valuation assignments for a much smaller fee than they had before and are often being passed over. They are often passed over because someone will agree to perform an appraisal for a cheaper fee and a quicker turn-around time. It has almost been like a rush to the bottom in some instances where timing and fee are the overriding concerns rather than professional expertise and looking for a person who really has the qualities that are needed to perform a valuation that is noteworthy.

With the invention of automated valuation models, one of the things The Norris Group always stressed in teaching people to be investors is nothing is as easy as pushing a button to determine a value. A lot of people think it’s a lot easier than it sounds and they have a real grasp on what something is worth because they can get some kind of results from pushing a button and getting a Zillow estimate. This is not really going to provide you an accurate number a certain percentage of the time. People seem to forget that an AVM is really a mathematical model that is combined with the database. The big issue with most of the AVMs is that they rely on public information, some of which might be incomplete or inaccurate. What is missing from the automatic valuation model is the personal touch, the on-the-ground person taking a look at the condition, the amenities, and all the features that contribute to value. This is where a trained professional appraiser, such as an SRA designated or an MIA designated appraiser from the Appraisal Institute makes all the difference. The automated value ignores the idea that all properties are not created equally and have the same size structure that makes it the same size lot, but that is where the differences begin. It is a quicker and better look at what you have rather than just size and a data sale.

In a recent example in Palm Springs, The Norris Group bought a custom home on a golf course, but there were definitely superior lot locations that they did not have. There was a comp for the same house, basically the same size and builder that was over $1 million and The Norris Group had their home for sale for $799,000 for 4 months before it went pending. One of the people that shouldn’t have been given the appraisal was given the appraisal assignment and came in at $1.2 million. They really did The Norris Group a favor because the buyer was thrilled to get a property that was $400 grand below what it was worth. However, it was not worth $1.2 million, and he did not have local expertise; he just had a comp he thought was a model match. The Appraisal Institute is seeing a lot of instances where the issue of geographic confidence is huge and with a lot of the instances with the rush-to the cheap and the fast, they are finding that appraisers are driving 400-500 miles to look at a market that they have no connection with whatsoever. They simply capture a comp, and that is it. Everybody will probably agree that there is no substitute for the competency that one has in a geographic area with which they are very familiar and with which the data is there for them to make the effort and the time to verify the data with a buyer, seller, or both. In this they will try to understand what happened in their transaction. You don’t get this when somebody is driving in 400-500 miles, takes a quick picture or two, picks up a comp or two, and then drives back to finish up the assignment. It is also hard for the person who is used to making a certain living to have part of their fee taken.

Most appraisal management companies are owned by large groups of people. Some of the financial institutions actually have their own appraisal management company, and the biggest problem with the appraisal management companies for their real estate appraisers is that they are asking their people to take a part of the fee, and then they’re taking a part of the fee themselves. The Appraisal Institute recently did some sampling on the idea of reasonable and customary fees, and this is one of the issues that the Dodd-Frank bill has presented. When a person acquires a loan, portfolio, or piece of property to be appraised, then they go to an appraiser and ask about doing an appraisal. However, one of the big problems and issues is that the appraiser is often forced to take much less than what their normal fee would be, and then the appraisal management company tacks on their fee. There is really no way that a consumer at this point knows how much of the fee that they pay for the appraisal goes to the management company or to the appraiser. For a HUD-1 form, that fee is lumped up in one number. There may be some instances where some of the management companies are forthcoming with the amount of fee to the appraiser and the amount of fee to the management company, but by and large this is not happening. Many of their appraisers have been forced to leave the business because they cannot support a family or a business when they are working for 50% or less of what they have been working for. This is a huge concern, and they all have invested a lot of time and effort into becoming educated and acquiring, in terms of the appraisal institute, a designation in keeping themselves current and becoming as professional and having the expertise they need to go to the market and to help consumers make the decisions they need to make on the loans and the properties that they are trying to buy. People have decided in some instances that they cannot continue to do that and be paid 50% of what they are usually paid. A lot of consumers see this when they go to close; they see a large fee for an appraisal, and they don’t really understand that part of that fee goes to the management company.

In Sara’s testimony, one of the things she said was that the appraisal institute would like to see just simply either a division of the fees or something to come forward through Congress that says the appraisal fee will be paid to the appraiser. Then the management company can pay or be paid the fee that they charged. There would be a different line item, and it would be more expensive for the consumer because this was what Dodd-Frank was supposed to take care of as opposed to HVCC. There was going to be fair compensation for appraisers that was customary before HVCC, but this did not happen. This is one of the things that she advocated for when she spoke to Congress. They must have a return-to and must compensate their people. There was not any doubt in Dodd-Frank that the Appraisal Institute was not looking to provide a reasonable and customary fee for their appraisers. Unfortunately, that fee was always considered the fee to the appraiser and not the fee to the management company and the appraiser. That was where there was a big difference.

In a market like California and in Riverside County, it was 80% REO sales at its worst. These were closings. You could not ignore these as comps, at least some of the time, because they were definitely going to set the bar. One of the things that investors have problems with is that appraisals now are not easy. You have a really fixed up house and you might have seven offers on the house, which to Bruce is stating market value, and then you have comps where 80% of them don’t have a kitchen. It takes a little work to figure out if your house that you had seven offers on is actually a valid sale. Without compensation, it would have a hard time to spend the time necessary to come up with the right number. This speaks even more to the fact that as time passes and we see more and more of a market that is up and down, having someone working with you and having a real estate appraisal performed by a competent, qualified person who is invested in education and put themselves in a position to keep up with the trends that are in the market, has geographic competency, will take the extra time to check the comps, and catch a comp that is missing something is absolutely going to be the most important thing that you could have as a buyer. As a lender, you know this is the most important decision to buy a home and own a property that most of us make. You should want the best and desire the very best person working for you and working on that. They would like to say that kind of person is a designated member of the Appraisal Institute who has the SRA or MAI designation or the SRPA. These letters really used to mean something, but from what Bruce has heard, when you own an appraisal management company, these are completely ignored.

The overriding feature for most of the people who are working for management companies is the fee and the timing. The idea is to get it done quickly and get it done cheap. For someone who is going to continue to be a professional, completing an assignment in a tiny turnaround time without the opportunity to extend that expertise to go look at the property, understand what is happening in the market, and view the comparables, it is not possible. A lot of people think appraisal management companies are necessary because they think they are a provision that the banks have to follow, but there are other ways to get around the idea of the firewall being built. It’s a misconception.

When Sara was in front of Congress, she definitely had the sense that they understood the subject matter and took the time to read her document. She was asked three questions, which were right in tune with what she had talked about to them. On the panel that spoke that day, there were sixteen people who were invited. It was such a large panel that they had to divide them into two parts. Sara really thought they were making an enormous effort to try to understand what is happening in the market and try to help the consumer not only to protect them, but to give them the opportunity to be dealt with as fairly and expeditiously as possible. There was an article just a couple days ago that talked about appraisals now coming in too low and that about 16% of transactions were falling out because the appraisal wasn’t coming up to the purchase price that was agreed upon between the buyer and seller. This is because one of the things happening now is a real misconception of what the role of the appraiser is. We are reporters of the market; we reflect what is happening in the market and we don’t set it. The assumption that a lot of buyers and sellers have is that an appraisal is somehow wrong if it doesn’t match the listing and the sale price. There is no reason to assume that the contract price is correct simply because it might be higher than the appraiser’s values. The Appraisal Institute is a disinterested third party, and we try to reflect what is in the market. The best reflection of that market is going to come from someone who has good training and good education. What they are asking Congress to do is to refrain from legislating the appraisal process and to take a look at exactly what these bills are mandating. This would be taking away their right to report the market, and this is what they are. It would take away their right to be a disinterested third party. What is really interesting about all this is Bruce buys and resells homes, so he can say it is definitely part of the market when he puts his up for sale. You cannot ignore the fact that it is going to compete with whatever you have and therefore is a valid part of the market.

Sara is a real optimist and is hopeful that there is some reasonable thought going into this process and that a reasonable decision will be made. There are people who are extremely interested in the consumer and in trying to make sure that the consumer is protected and that we have an opportunity to allow the services that protect our financial markets and to be the best that they can. Sara really got the impression from speaking in Congress that there is a possibility that a reasonable decision will be made. Bruce is very hopeful too because this would be a very big positive for the industry.

Sara Stephens will be on the panel for I Survived Real Estate 2011, taking place on October 14th. The Norris Group would like to thank their gold sponsors for the event: Adrenaline Athletics, Coldwell Banker Pioneer Real Estate, Conaway and Conaway, Delmae Properties, Elite Auctions, Inland Empire Investors Forum, Keller Williams of Corona, Keystone CPA, Kucan & Clark Partners, LLC, Las Brisas Escrow, Leivas Associates, Mike Cantu, Northern California Real Estate Investors Association, Northern San Diego Real Estate Investors Association, Pacific Sunrise Mortgage, Personal Real Estate Magazine, Realty 411 Magazine, Rick and LeaAnne Rossiter, Southwest Riverside County Board of Realtors, Starz Photography, uDirect IRA, Wilson Investment Properties, Tony Alvarez, and Westin South Coast Plaza. Visit isurvived2011.com for more details.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 6/7/11

Tuesday, June 7th, 2011

Today’s News Synopsis:

According to Housing Wire, Freddie Mac is restructuring their business and placing important executives in different positions.  Housing prices are continuing to fall as a result of foreclosures, according to both Inman and Builder.  Inman also reported that CoreLogic reached its settlement with 2 of the 11 companies they sued last year.  NAHB also reported a recent survey stating that more and more people want to own homes despite the market.

In The News:

Housing Wire - “Freddie Mac restructures divisions, moves key management” (6-7-11)

“Freddie Mac recently moved key executives into different roles as the government-sponsored enterprise begins to reorganize its overall business structure. The GSE reported the changes Tuesday, adding the personnel shift will better position the firm in an ever-changing mortgage finance industry.”

NAHB - “Owning a Home Essential to the American Dream, Survey Shows” (6-7-11)

“Despite the ups and downs of the housing market, home owners and non-owners alike consider owning a home essential to the American Dream.   That’s the key finding of a recent survey of people likely to vote in 2012 that was conducted on behalf of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) by Public Opinion Strategies of Alexandria, Va., and Lake Research Partners of Washington, D.C. ”

Builder - “Foreclosures Continue to Take Toll on Pricing” (6-7-11)

“Foreclosures continued to drag housing prices downward in March and during the first quarter of the year, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index. The index, which pulls its data from Fannie Mae– and Freddie Mac–acquired mortgages, posted a 0.3% decline from February and a drop of 2.5% between the fourth quarter of 2010 and the first quarter of 2011.”

Inman - “CoreLogic settles with 2 defendants in AVM patent case” (6-7-11)

“Real estate and loan data aggregator CoreLogic has reached settlements with two of the 11 companies it sued last year over allegations that property valuations they provide using automated valuation models (AVMs) infringe on a 1994 patent.”

DS News - “Survey: Housing Counselors Describe HAMP Experience as ‘Negative’” (6-7-11)

“More than three-quarters of foreclosure counselors say the borrower experience when turning to the government’s flagship modification program for relief is sub-par.”

Bloomberg - “U.S. Regulators Extend Comment Deadline for Mortgage Risk-Retention Rule” (6-7-11)

“U.S. regulators extended the comment period for Dodd-Frank Act risk-retention rules that could make it more difficult or expensive for borrowers to get mortgages.”

Inman - “40% of underwater borrowers took cash out of homes” (6-7-11)

“Homeowners with home equity loans are more than twice as likely to be “underwater” as those who didn’t take cash out of their homes, according to statistics compiled by real estate and loan data aggregator CoreLogic.”

Risemedia - “Freddie Mac Announces Structured Pass-Through Certificates Backed only by 7-Year Multifamily Mortgages” (6-7-11)

“Freddie Mac (OTC: FMCC) announced recently its second offering of Structured Pass-Through Certificates (“K Certificates”) backed only by multifamily mortgages with a 7-year term.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, the chief economist of the NAR predicted the housing recession would bottom by summer. Doug Duncan, the chief economist for Fannie Mae, believed housing demand would not balance with new household formation and housing starts until 2013. According to Fitch Ratings, subprime RMBS delinquencies fell to 44.8% in May. Terradatum Inc reported home and condominium sales increased by 50 percent from the prio year.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 2/26/10

Friday, February 26th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

According to the NAR, existing home sales decreased by 7.2 percent in January. The rise in GDP exceeded the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Freddie Mac reports the 30-year FRM increased to a rate of 5.05 percent. A recently proposed plan from the Obama administration would give homeowners an extra 30 days after receiving the HAMP non-approval notice before the foreclosure sale can proceed.

In The News:

NAR - “Existing-Home Sales Down in January but Higher than a Year Ago; Prices Steady” (2-26-10)

“Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – dropped 7.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 5.05 million units in January from a revised 5.44 million in December, but remain 11.5 percent above the 4.53 million-unit level in January 2009.”

CNBC - “Housing Recovery Is Looking A Lot Shakier Than Expected” (2-26-10)

“Even the optimists never expected a traditional housing recovery with unemployment stubbornly high, the consumer balance sheet still in repair mode and credit conditions stingy, but right now there’s palpable worry about momentum—especially given a string of solid months in mid- to late-2009.”

Bloomberg - “U.S. Economy Grew at 5.9% Annual Pace Last Quarter” (2-26-10)

“The U.S. economy expanded at a 5.9 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter, more than the government reported last month, reflecting stronger business investment and a greater contribution from inventories. The rise in gross domestic product, which exceeded the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, marked the best performance in more than six years, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Inventories added 3.88 percentage points to GDP, more than previously reported, and investment in software and equipment grew at the fastest pace in almost a decade.”

Inman - “30-year fixed punches through 5 percent” (2-26-10)

“Rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages broke through the 5 percent mark this week for the first time in three weeks, Freddie Mac said in releasing the results of its weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.05 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending Feb. 25, up from 4.93 percent last week but down from 5.07 percent a year ago.”

Housing Wire“As Commercial Real Estate Weakens, Moody’s Considers Action on Related CDOs” (2-26-10)

“The credit rating agency Moody’s Investors Service put a total of $6.2bn of commercial real estate linked CDOs up for possible downgrade today, citing growing concerns over the ability of the underlying assets to continually perform.”

Housing Wire“BB&T Originations Nearly Doubled in 2009″ (2-26-10)

“BB&T Corp. (BBT: 28.53 +1.06%) said it originated 72,500 mortgages through its retail operation, including 53,500 refinance loans and 19,000 purchase mortgages, a 97% increase from 2008’s origination level. In addition, BB&T said it closed 6,600 loans worth nearly $1.3bn Homeowners Affordability and Stability Plan, as known as the Making Home Affordable program, to help stave foreclosure for distressed borrowers.”

Housing Wire“Homeowner Estimates as Good as Zillow? Appraisal Academics Think So” (2-26-10)

“When it comes to using the Zillow.com automated valuation model (AVM) to get a free listing price on a house, users may be getting what they paid for, according to a report published by the Appraisal Institute that finds the Web site overestimates the values on homes almost as often as the actual homeowners.”

Housing Wire“Obama Aims to Prohibit Foreclosure to Give HAMP a Chance” (2-26-10)

“The Obama Administration is drafting a proposal that would prohibit foreclosure on delinquent mortgages until servicers get a chance to evaluate a borrower for the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP). According to the presentation to lenders obtained by HousingWire, the Administration would also give borrowers an extra 30 days after receiving the HAMP non-approval notice before the foreclosure sale can proceed.”

Housing Wire“Republicans Say Government-Led Mortgage Modifications are a Failure” (2-26-10)

“The US Treasury Department launched HAMP in March 2009 to allocate capped incentives to servicers for the modification of loans on the verge of foreclosure. The $75bn program aims to modify 3-to-4m mortgages by the time it expires in 2012. Through January, participating servicers provided 116,000 permanent modifications, an increase from 66,000 in December. In November 2009, the Treasury initially estimated 375,000 permanent modifications by the end of the year.”

Realty Times“Top Affordable U.S. Housing Markets” (2-26-10)

“The HOI [Housing Opportunity Index] showed that 70.8 percent of all new and existing homes sold in the final quarter of 2009 were affordable to families earning the national median income of $64,000, slightly higher than the previous quarter and near the record-high 72.5 percent set during the first quarter of 2009, according to a press statement from the National Association of Home Builders.”

Realty Times“Commercial Real Estate Losses Could Reach $1 Trillion” (2-26-10)

“We estimate that between $800 billion and $1 trillion of losses to commercial real estate equity and debt will be realized over the next few years. The annual volume of commercial mortgage maturities is expected to increase each year through 2013, according to Ken Rosen, during the Commission’s first hearing on January 15, 2010.”

104-TNG Radio – Rick Solis 1-10-09

Friday, January 9th, 2009

Rick Solis

Appraiser and Investor

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Bruce Norris is joined this week by appraiser and investor, Rick Solis.

Rick has been appraising properties since 1989. Rick says it was a perfect time to start because he got to see both cycles. In 1989, you didn’t even need a license. Education, Rick says, has not improved appraisals. Bruce talks about how he got his appraisers license and why. They both say much of the business is street smarts.

Rick got into the business because he purchased a Dave Delgado seminar. He started buying a lot of houses. He realized he needed to know how to evaluate properties.

Bruce asks if appraisers are under pressure to come in at a certain number. Rick says pressure is coming from several sources including agents, buyers, sellers, and banks. From 2004-2006 the pressure was for the appraisers to come in high. Today, banks put appraiser reports through many more hoops. They are looking for something wrong with it and they have review appraisals done. They also use an automated valuation model (AVM) to check numbers. In a down market, the AVM is not an issue. It’s a real problem in an up market. Everyone is just being much more conservative.

Bruce asks Rick how he compares this downturn from the 90s. Rick says this downturn is much worse. There was a more gradual decline over several years in the 90s. Prices are much more erratic in the current market and it varies from month to month.

Rick says areas with lots of new houses, where there are lots of first-time homebuyer inventory, and far out areas seem to have gotten pummeled. Sometimes 60% of the value disappeared. Rick tries to turn down appraisals for irregular products (dirt roads, manufactured homes, etc). It’s very difficult to find comps and arrive at a number.

Rick says in 2009 he expects to see drops in pricing every month for the Inland Empire. Rick says in his area in LA, sales seem to have dropped by 75%. Prices are still coming down there too. Bruce asks Rick what percentage of sales in Victorville were REO. Bruce says 92% of all sales in the area were REO. Reselling in that area would be very difficult. It would be very difficult to get an appraisal too. When 98% are vacant and need work and almost all sales are REO, it’s very difficult to get comps to substantiate a higher price.

Bruce asks what Rick is running into when working with investors. Rick says too many investors are going off the sales price in the MLS. The numbers are incorrect at times because of bad data entry or concessions. Some of the busy REO agents are having assistants enter in the data and they aren’t being careful.

Rick says he uses the MLS but confirms those prices with public record. He uses Real Quest and Dataquick to make sure his numbers are correct. Luckily, data is getting a little better and more complete.

Rick says listings aren’t so much calculated into his appraisals but he does spend more time on pending sales.

Bruce asks if the goal for appraising properties for an investor is different then doing to for retail buyers. Rick says working with buyers is different because the buyer is dictating the price. It becomes its own comp. The investor purchase is more difficult.

Tune in next week as the conversation continue.

Rick is the senior appraiser at Ace Appraisals. Rick has been a full time real estate appraiser since 1989 and a HUD approved appraiser since 1993. He has extensive investor and appraisal experience in residential real estate in the Los Angeles, San Bernardino, Riverside, and Orange County areas.