Randy and Mike Grigg

President and Chief Auctioneer of Elite Auctions

(Full Bio)

This week Bruce is joined again by Randy and Mike Grigg. Randy is the President of Elite Auctions. Mike is Randy’s son, who gradually got involved in the auction business. Mike has won awards for “Best Auctioneer”. He is very involved in real estate and charity auctions.

Randy began his career as an auctioneer because he had bough enough properties for long term investment, and he wanted to do something different. He tried buying and selling using Bruce’s and Mike Cantu’s strategies, but he discovered that their methods weren’t as easy as he expected. He began using auctions to escape some of the escrow difficulties that came with selling properties, and he experienced much more success using the auction method.

Mike Grigg began working in the auction business in 2002.

Bruce has always been intrigued by the auction business, and he tried to run his own auction once, but managed to fail during the boom period.

From 2002 to 2006, most people would not have thought of an auction, because it was easy to sell. However, people who used auctions during this time period experienced a good amount of success. Mike believes that auctions work best when the market is booming because the bidders are ferocious. Many times the price goes higher than a traditional sale.

75% of being a successful auctioneer is being able to comfortably speak in front of groups of people. Mike uses humor a lot during his auctions. His auction school was a week long course with 8 to 9 hour days of public speaking. Auctioning live stock is much faster than real estate. Also, there are many more frequent, professional bidders that attend live stock auctions. In a typical real estate auction, 50% of the bidders have never been to an auction before, and many of them are very nervous.

Bruce attended a live stock auction once, and he could not understand a word being said. Mike says that cattle auctioneers are not typically good candidates for real estate auctions, and vice versa.

There is a large difference between auctioning a property between 2005 and 2010. In 2005, the crowds were huge. Mike would sometimes have hundreds of people standing on someone’s front lawn. Two months ago it was hard to get bidders to come. This month it was a lot easier to get bidders to come. Next month could be a completely different story. Mike believes that buyers have a false sense that the market is coming back, which is encouraging many people to buy owner occupants.

The auction method requires 30 days of intense marketing. Mike’s company takes many calls from people who don’t know how an auction works. Sometimes people ask what a property will sell for, and Mike doesn’t want to do this, because everyone’s number is different.

Mike’s advertising campaign has become 50 to 75% less expensive over time. Most of Mike’s advertising is done over the internet. The newspaper has become very expensive, and it is not as effective.

Absolute auctions tend to get the biggest response, but Mike has not seen this kind of real estate auction take place in California over the past 5 years.

When Mike performs his advertising campaign, his goal is to get them to call, so that he can get them excited about the auction. After he talks to them over the phone, he tries to get them to come to an open house, and then hopefully they will come to the auction. Mike only holds 1 or 2 open houses for each house. Getting multiple bidders to come to the same open house shows the potential buyer that the house is popular and that Mike is running a legitimate company. Approximately 1 out of 3 people who come to the open house with come to the auction.

Mike’s most surprising auction involved a 6-plex apartment building. It was in a rent controlled zone in which they could not rebuild the property if it burned down. The property sold for $550,000, but it was appraised by 3 separate companies for only $350,000. Bruce has also been surprised by Mike’s auction results. Mike once auctioned a crummy, main street house for Bruce. Bruce was hoping that it would at least sell for $100,000, but did not have much hope. At the end of the auction, Mike informed Bruce that the home had sold for over $200,000.

Auctions work best for Bruce when he has owned a property for a long time and wants to get rid of it in a quick and low-hassle manner.

Mike got involved in charity auctions three years ago. His first charity auction was for Make A Wish. He is still performing this charity auction, and it has been more successful each year. These charities involved donated items, puppies, and trips. Mike is doing 10 charity auctions in the next month and a half. Mike makes money from charity auctions by offering a flat fee or a percentage of the earnings.

One of the ways Mike tries to break the ice in a charity auction is to have an opening center piece auction. During the center piece auction, one person from each table stands up and auctions their table’s center piece to the highest bidder at the table. The highest bidder of all the tables wins a small prize, such as a bottle of wine. Many of these auctions raise equal to or more than live auctions. Most of these charity auctions have 300 to 500 attendees. They are typically big events, in ballroom settings, with dinner and bands. Most of these charities occur annually.

Mike’s website for charity auctions is www.mikegriggauctions.com

Online auctions are very frowned upon by auctioneers. It can be hard to trust an online auctioneer, because you don’t know who they really are. However, if everything is disclosed properly and the investor gets the number he was approximately expecting, then there shouldn’t be a problem.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

Randy and Mike Grigg

President and Chief Auctioneer of Elite Auctions 

(Full Bio)

This week Bruce is joined by Randy and Mike Grigg. Randy is the President of Elite Auctions. Mike is Randy’s son, who gradually got involved in the auction business. Mike has won awards for “Best Auctioneer”. He is very involved in real estate and charity auctions. 

Randy got involved in purchasing real estate while he was in the agriculture business. He started slowly, buying 1 to 3 houses per year. He continued doing this consistently for 25 years. During those 25 years, he learned how to deal with tenants and structure deals. 

Because Randy had a career, he considered his rental properties to be a side job. He rarely had trouble with his tenants and they stayed for a long term, so purchasing houses was not a distraction for him. After a while, the number of properties he owned grew fairly large, so he had to figure out a program to manage those properties. 

When Randy first began buying real estate, the most popular trainers were Mark Harrilson, Albert Lawry, Robert Allen, John Schaub, and Pete Coronado. Randy was living in Bakersfield during this time, and he felt that gave him an advantage. He paid $27,000 for a house in Bakersfield and his rent was $350. Today, that same house would sell for $45,000 and rents for $800 per month. Randy’s first investment houses had negative cashflow, but as values increased over the years, they eventually accumulated positive cashflow. 

95% of Randy’s home purchases were bought from the owner. He attracted sellers through ads in the paper. He bought a lot of houses by taking over the sellers’ loans. 

Randy chose not to buy and sell because he already had a career, so he did not need the immediate money. Also, a lot of work and time goes into rehabbing properties for resale. There are also occasional, unfortunate surprises that come up from low appraisals, which can take 5% away from your selling price. 

Randy’s beginning instructors told him to buy and never sell. However, Randy did sell a few of them. 

Bakersfield has had almost no appreciation. In 26 years, there has been no appreciation, but you can get a 50% lower interest rate, and there have been wage increases. The payment for a 2011 home purchase in Lancaster is 31% less than the payment equivalent in 1985. 

Some builders are currently investing their money in trust deeds, because they do not have enough work. Also, the builders are not offering market rates on many of the homes they are selling. 

Randy’s life did not change much when the housing market went from boom to bust, because he chose to hold his properties. However, he does wish he had sold some of his properties, because he feels his age makes holding onto property less valuable. 

Mike worked on some of Randy’s houses when he was younger. He feels it was a good experience, because he was exposed to areas he did not want to live in, which motivated him to provide himself with a better life. 

Mike wants to buy and hold properties and he thinks right now is the best time to do it. Bruce believes he can still wait a couple years if he feels the need to. Bruce believes it is good for people to gradually work their way into property buying, because there can be big consequences if you do not. Sometimes people come to Bruce asking for a $1 million investment loan, and when Bruce looks at their profit estimates, he finds they are completely wrong. 

Randy does not often buy and then rehab for resale. Most of his properties involve very little rehabbing. Most of the people that Randy puts into his houses have good income and poor credit, and most of them have a strong desire for homeownership. Randy puts these sorts of people into his homes, because they rent with the hope of eventually buying the home, and Randy is willing to sell the home to them should they wish to. 

Randy has had a few tenants for over 20 years, but the average tenant length is 6 years. It is John Schaub’s philosophy that you will not make money on a rental for the first two years. Vacancy is the biggest expense in land-lording, because you then have to re-prepare the home for a new tenant. 

Randy will finance any repairs his renters wish to do on his houses, but the cost of the repairs is probably market value. 

Many of Randy’s current purchases are made for other investors. Those properties come out of the MLS. The rest of his properties come from ball room auctions in Bakersfield. Occasionally, Randy has the chance to bid against the lender in an online auction. Many online auctions have almost zero competition. 

Randy’s website is www.sellwithauction.com 

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

Existing home sales dropped 9.6%, according to the NAR. A San Joaquin County investor pleaded guilty to rigging foreclosure auctions, and is now facing a federal prison sentence and $1 million in fines. LPS claims the current mortgage delinquency rate is 8.8%.

In The News:

NAR - “February Existing-Home Sales Decline following Sustained Gains” (3-21-11)

“Existing-home sales1, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, dropped 9.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.88 million in February from an upwardly revised 5.40 million in January, and are 2.8 percent below the 5.02 million pace in February 2010.”

Housing Wire – “California pending home sales spike in February” (3-21-11)

“The California Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index rose 20.6% in February to 112.1 from 93 in January. The index uses 2008 housing market activity as a baseline because it represents a more normal level of purchases and sales. An index reading of 100 corresponds with activity in 2008.”

Recordnet.com – “Guilty plea in home auction rigging” (3-21-11)

“A San Joaquin County investor pleaded guilty Friday in federal court to charges he illegally rigged bids with others at home foreclosure auctions in Stockton, the U.S. Attorney’s Office in Sacramento reported. Gregory L. Jackson is the sixth defendant so far to plead guilty in the federal probe. He faces a federal prison sentence and $1 million in fines under terms of the negotiated plea deal.”

Orange County Register – “‘Normal’ new-home market is 3-5 years off” (3-19-21)

“We decided to add Southern California (especially the O.C. market) into our business plan since we believe this market has bottomed. In today’s home building market, there is an imbalance between used and new homes in Orange County as a limited amount of new homes have been built over the last five years.”

Orange County Register – “Demand for O.C. homes at 7-month high” (3-21-11)

“Demand, the number of new pending sales over the past month, increased by 225 in just two weeks and now totals 2,982. At the beginning of the year, demand was at 1,856 pending sales. Since then, it has increased by 61%. Last year at this time there were 288 additional pending sales, propped up by the $8,000 first time homebuyer tax credit.”

Housing Wire – “Mortgage delinquency rate drops 18.4% annually: LPS” (3-21-11)

“Out of the 40 million loans evaluated by LPS last month, 8.8% qualified as delinquent (30 days or more overdue). That delinquency rate is down 1.2% from January and 18.4% from February 2010.”

Housing Wire – “Stress tests suggest economy may slide back into crisis: IRA” (3-21-11)

“Recent stress tests conducted by the Federal Reserve suggest the banking industry and economy ‘may be sliding back into crisis’ because of deflation in the housing sector, according to a new report from Institutional Risk Analytics.”

Housing Wire – “Moody’s expects temporary GSE exemption from mortgage risk rules” (3-21-11)

“Analysts at Moody’s Investors Service said Monday regulators may exempt Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from upcoming mortgage risk retention rules – at least temporarily.”

Housing Wire – “Distressed property sales decline on foreclosure issues facing servicers” (3-21-11)

“Overall, investors stepped up their homebuying game last month even as distressed property sales fell, according to the latest Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Tracking Survey. The report shows the HousingPulse Distressed Property Index — a barometer of distressed home sales — fell to 47.3% in February from 49.6% in January.”

Bloomberg – “Treasury to Sell Mortgage-Backed Holdings at Up to $10 Billion Per Month” (3-21-11)

“The U.S. Treasury Department plans to wind down its $142 billion portfolio of mortgage bonds guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac by selling as much as $10 billion per month.”

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

 

Greg Norris

(Full Bio)

Craig Hill

(Full Bio)

The Norris Group

This week Bruce is joined again by Greg Norris and Craig Hill. Greg is the vice president of TNG Auctions. He buys properties and resells them. Craig has been working with Bruce for 15 years, and is responsible for speaking to all potential borrowers for The Norris Group.

TNG gets many calls from new investors who tend to have some misconceptions. One of the biggest misconceptions these investors have is that they don’t need to use personal cash when using hard money loans. Craig suggests that borrowers have $30,000 for every $100,000 you desire to borrow. Also, many people believe that having credit issues will disqualify them, but credit issues can be ignored if they have an appropriate amount of cash. On the other hand, there are some investors with 800 credit scores and minimal cash reserves who will probably be disqualified.

If a house is worth $100,000, $75,000 should be the total between the purchase price and repairs. People do not understand that you cannot effectively invest in a house with very little money.

There are many lenders who will make a loan regardless of whether or not it will be profitable for the investor. The Norris Group offers investors another level of protection, because we have an appraiser with an investor background. Craig estimates that TNG’s appraiser prevents 2 to 3 investors every week from getting a bad deal. Once someone gets a deal, Craig prefers that the investor send him the property info immediately. There are many people who overlook details like “year built” or “lot size”. People treat investing in real estate like people who gamble in Vegas; they believe they cannot lose.

Sometimes investors start with something that is above their level of experience. In Bruce’s bootcamp, he takes his students to a home that is above their experience level, and asks them to estimate repairs, so they can learn to stay away from those homes. Craig has noticed that many investors tend to undervalue the cost of repairs and overvalue the sale price. People have come to Craig with an interest in buying property, but he can easily tell whether or not those properties are profitable by seeing who is selling them. If Craig notices that the seller is an experienced investor, that gives him a clue the property is not selling undervalued.

Relying on other people to give you all your buying, repairing and selling numbers is probably not a good idea, especially if those people are on commission. If an agent claims he can sell a property for a certain price which is contrary to Craig’s judgment, Craig suggests the realtor should not charge for the purchase of the property, and only take commission after the sale.

Appraisals have gotten better, in Greg’s opinion. This is partly because of a more stable market. Many short sales are pristine. To determine whether or not a property’s value is accurate, you need to look at all the properties sold within the last 3 months and pending sales. Sometimes you will see houses pending at a high number, but are also short sales; that is obviously not the right number. Sometimes the sold properties in the MLS are not actually sold. You need to know when to speak to a Realist about whether or not a sale occurred.

One of Greg’s most difficult jobs is to appraise a property for the future. He has to take into account which season he will be selling in. This winter has been odd for TNG, because half our properties are pending. Usually properties take longer to sell in the winter. Greg attributes this to the lack of inventory. There are not an overwhelming number of REOs on the market, so sellers still have some power. Also, TNG probably has the only fully repaired product. Greg has gotten better at pricing as well.

It is still hard to know what an appraiser will appraise a TNG house for. Currently, Greg’s least likeable appraisers work for VA, and FHA appraisers are now better to deal with, because FHA allows Greg to use appraisers that understand how to properly appraise a fully repaired house. Appraisers have recently taken a cut in their pay, so they may not look closely at your property unless you get their attention.

Getting a hard money loan is very costly. Craig has received calls from investors who hung up immediately after hearing his hard money interest rates. However, using hard money over a regular, cheaper loan gives you more freedom to do more and make more. One benefit of using hard money loans is that you don’t have to fear not finding necessary cash. When you have a business relationship with someone who is counting on your closing, you cannot go knocking around the neighborhood to find a quick $100,000.

There are some occasions where people receive a “yes” from a lender, but later get cancelled on. If TNG says yes to a deal, the deal is done and funded. TNG only gives borrowers a hard time during the initial process, so that we can know the deal is going to be profitable. This is why agents and escrows like working with TNG, because they know that if TNG gives a commitment, then the deal is going to work.

People might think that TNG’s business model is very simple and easy to replicate, but it isn’t. We have built good relationships with our business partners, which allows us to do business with ease. TNG even passes on a few deals just to maintain respect from its partners. Building a team that trusts you can take years.

When Bruce and Craig first met, the common idea of value was what someone paid for it. If a piece of property was said to be worth $90,000 but was sold for $60,000, then the value was believed to be $60,000. Bruce and Craig disproved this idea, but it was very difficult for Craig to approve Bruce’s loan.

All of Bruce’s seminars make it easier for Craig to do business, because many of TNG’s new clients know a lot about the company. Many of TNG’s clients have had the opportunity to hear Bruce speak, and they’ve researched TNG through our website. This helps Craig as a lender because not only do his clients know how TNG conducts its business, but they also know that we are trustworthy. Some of Craig’s clients trust TNG’s decision making ability more than their own, and that is why they work with him.

Greg’s favorite type of inventory are standard track homes. Greg does not like properties on large lots. Anything over 20,000 square feet is usually bad inventory. Also, he does not like areas that are poorly planned. For example, there are some neighborhoods where there may be one property built in 1960 next to another property built in the 1970s. There are exceptions to this, but Greg prefers to buy safer inventory with more mass appeal. Newer homes are typically more attractive, and they require fewer repairs. Greg has been surprised by how many people are still more attracted to larger homes. He does not mind buying properties on small lots so long as that kind of inventory is selling well in its area.

When Greg is estimating a property’s value, he tries to think of what a property’s resale value will be after 30 days. He has to consider what it will take to attract a buyer within 30 days. There are occasions when he must cut his values, because 5 REOs drop into the market at one time. Greg reviews his asking price once a week for every property TNG owns.

Greg has had a lot of trouble with pool homes. He has spent $25,000 on pool repairs, which wiped out his profit. However, pool homes are not always problematic, and Greg has profited from buying them.

Greg prefers to rely on his own knowledge at a trustee sale. Sometimes he receives friendly advice from other people, but not often.

For m ore information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

I Survived Real Estate 2010 (Full Bio)

September 17^th, 2010, The Norris Group returns with its award winning event I Survived Real Estate 2010. The video also now available on The Norris Group website.

The Norris Group has assembled an incredible line up of industry experts to discuss the state of REO from the inside. Topics will include regulatory intervention and aftermath, bulk buying, myths and facts, and opportunities emerging for real estate professionals. 100 percent of the proceeds support the Orange County affiliate of Susan G. Komen for the Cure. This event would not be possible without generous help from the following platinum partners: Foreclosure Radar and Sean O’Toole, the San Diego Creative Real Estate Investors Association and Bill Tan, Investors Workshops and Shawn Watkins and Angel Bronsgeest, Invest Club for Women and Iris Veneracion and Bobby Alexander, Claudia Buys Houses, The Business Press, Frye Wiles, MVT Productions, and White House Catering.

This week The Norris Group Real Estate Radio Show is broadcasting I Survived Real Estate 2010.

Investors buy about 1/3 of Freddie Mac’s properties. Freddie Mac does not offer financing for most of those investor purchases, but Fannie Mae does. Fannie Mae has a program called Home Path. Many investors can qualify for Home Path financing on rehab properties. The financing on the rehab program includes the cost of repair. It is somewhat similar to the 203K loan. The problem Bruce has experienced with these programs is they don’t offer enough financing to significantly help investors. Bruce is usually only offered about $4,000 for rehab financing.

It is hard to pull a pool of properties together in a way that is just as attractive for an investor as finding one good property.

Inventory levels are increasing. Freddie Mac started this year with 45,000 properties in inventory, but today we have about 70,000. 55% of those properties are in the redemption, eviction and prelist phase. That phase is taking longer now. Approximately 55% of Freddie’s properties are becoming occupied. Freddie has about 15,000 homes on the market, and the rest are in the closing process.

As inventory levels increase, and as the 90-day strategies fail, then Freddie might move to a ballroom or online auction. However, if a property has had sale fallouts or could use significant improvement, then it may be relisted. Freddie’s goal is to figure out what selling strategy will have the best recovery rate. On day 75 of the listing, Freddie gives the broker a two week notice, and then moves onto the auction process.

Fannie Mae has a web-based portal for investors who desire to qualify for bulk purchases. You must provide information about yourself, provide your tax I.D. number, and allow Fannie Mae to do a background check on you. Once you qualify, you are given access to the web-based portal. This portal contains listings of properties, and it allows investors to submit a bid. This portal is for the larger pools. The properties in the pool are located across the country.

Bruce believes that tax payers could be saved a lot of money if properties were sold to investors rather than being given to NSP programs. Sarah Letts suggests that those investors go to the auctions.

In the last 12 month, Fannie Mae sold 30,000 properties to owner occupants during the first look period, and 5,000 properties to people using NSP funds.

Tommy Williams was the person who suggested that Bruce should read The World Is Flat. One of the most significant quotes in the book says, “No institution will go through fundamental changes, unless it believes it is in deep trouble and must do something different to survive.” Tommy believes that no other country in the world provides us with the same amount of opportunity as the free enterprise system of the U.S. That opportunity is built upon the initiative of the individual. We need to focus on turning that individual initiative loose. When you restrict individuals from making free market decisions, there are greater repercussions.

Tommy believes in the auction process. The stock market is like an auction, and everybody agrees with that auction every day. What if tomorrow morning, the DOW Jones said, “If Microsoft doesn’t bring us 25 dollars, we won’t sell”? It wouldn’t work. This is the problem we are dealing with in our current housing problem. Three years ago, the market told us that we had to rethink what houses were worth. Unfortunately, we have found out how accurate the market was worth. Tommy Williams believes that Sean O’Toole’s estimates are accurate, but he wises it wasn’t true. Tommy believes we have a long road ahead of us before we reach real market value. The quicker we get to that value, the better.

“Unfortunately, it has been too long since America had a leader ready to call on our nation to do something hard. To give something up, not to get something more, and to sacrifice for a great national cause for the future, rather than live for today.” – The World Is Flat

Tommy believes that if a politician actually had the courage to stand up and tell America the truth, the citizens would elect that person instantly. Unfortunately, we have been given so much bs that we aren’t accustomed to politicians being honest.

A crisis is a terrible thing to waste. We’ve had two in the last decade – 9/11 and the current financial crisis. Bruce has been to baseball games where everyone stood up after the 9/11 crisis. When we have a crisis, we can make changes, but we have to have someone that we can support in the government.

Thornberg is worried about where our fiscal debt is going. We are borrowing $1.3 trillion this year. We do not currently have that much debt, because most of it is in social security. Our net debt represents about 50% of the economy right now. That seems high, but Christopher doesn’t believe that is actually extremely high. However, if you are borrowing $1.3 trillion per year, that debt percentage will quickly turn into a number over 95%. Unlike Japan, we are a nation relying on external capital. If we keep borrowing, there will come a time where the world bond market will say “enough is enough”.

Thornberg does not believe that household, and local debt is that bad. We do not have that big of a debt problem. Our pensions are in trouble, but other than that, Christopher thinks we are fine. Consumer debt spiked in proportion to asset values. It also fell significantly when the asset bubble popped, and Americans realized they had too much debt. Most of American debt is in mortgage debt from Fannie and Freddie. Non-mortgage debt didn’t really rise at all. Overall, that debt is not too significant.

Stock investments have nothing to do with GDP. When we spend stock profits, that money does not get counted into GDP. When you pay taxes on your stock portfolio, those taxes are recorded in GDP statistics, but then they have to subtract your capital gains income from the total.

Thornberg is worried about where our fiscal debt is going, but he is not sure at what point he would say “enough is enough”. We’ve never had an unmanageable amount of debt, but we’ve also never had a government that is so unwilling to acknowledge the reality of our problem. The government claims it wants to fix the deficit, but it won’t raise taxes. Thornberg is a proponent of paying taxes, and he thinks all the Bush tax cuts should be taken out. He doesn’t enjoy paying taxes, but if the citizens of the U.S. actually have to pay, then we will finally stop the government from spending it. We have developed the delusion that the Federal debt is not our debt. If the government is borrowing $1.3 trillion dollars, a lot of that money will come from the citizens. It would take $4,500 from every citizen to pay that debt.

Thornberg does not believe that deleveraging is deflationary, because leveraging is not inflationary. In the middle of the leveraging binge, Alan Greenspan was worried about deflation. When you pay debt off instead of spend, you can decrease demand somewhat. Reducing demand can reduce the velocity of money, which can cause deflationary pressure. That is why Greenspan went through quantitative easing, and he did a pretty good job.

If you have a willing buyer and seller that come to a fair price together, then you have market value. That definition of market value will never be able to stop a real estate bubble. The Norris Group built homes in Rosamond. In Rosamond, the market should have been $150,000, but Bruce was selling those homes for $280,000. In the commercial world, the appraisal has multiple pieces. You have to calculate for comps, cost of building and income generated. Bruce asks Joseph Magdziarz if he thinks we should change the structure of how we come to the proper value. Joseph believes the definition does need to be looked at. During the boom, California prices escalated quickly, but rental prices didn’t change much. So prices changed a lot, but the underlying value didn’t. Unfortunately, the government created too much artificial demand in the market, and that helped cause the market. We created programs for people who couldn’t afford a home.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

Thank you for being a Gold Sponsor for I Survived Real Estate 2010: Adrenaline Athletics, Benton Investment Group, Community RE-Invest Group, Delmae Properties, Elite Auctions, Entrust California, Everlast Photography, Inland Empire Investors Forum, Keystone CPA, Landwood Title, Las Brisas Escrow, Leivas Financial Services, Mike Cantu, North San Diego Real Estate Investors Association, Northern California Real Estate Investors Association, Personal Real Estate Investor Magazine, Realty 411 Magazine, San Jose Real Estate Investor Association, Rick and LeeAnne Rossiter, San Jose Real Estate Investor Association, Starz Photography, Summit Solutions, Tony Alvarez, Wealth Point, and Westin South Coast Plaza.

I Survived Real Estate 2010 (Full Bio)

September 17^th, 2010, The Norris Group returns with its award winning event I Survived Real Estate 2010. The video also now available on The Norris Group website.

The Norris Group has assembled an incredible line up of industry experts to discuss the state of REO from the inside. Topics will include regulatory intervention and aftermath, bulk buying, myths and facts, and opportunities emerging for real estate professionals. 100 percent of the proceeds support the Orange County affiliate of Susan G. Komen for the Cure. This event would not be possible without generous help from the following platinum partners: Foreclosure Radar and Sean O’Toole, the San Diego Creative Real Estate Investors Association and Bill Tan, Investors Workshops and Shawn Watkins and Angel Bronsgeest, Invest Club for Women and Iris Veneracion and Bobby Alexander, Claudia Buys Houses, The Business Press, Frye Wiles, MVT Productions, and White House Catering.

This week The Norris Group Real Estate Radio Show is broadcasting I Survived Real Estate 2010.

You must have 2 different criteria for Bruce’s no down payment program in order to prevent foreclosures. The reason why this program will work is because it is set up to serve 3 borrowers simultaneously. Yes, you are going to have a failure rate with a no-down mortgage, but you pick the percentage. When your payment is less than rent, is it going to be 20 percent? Bruce doubts it. But for the sake of argument, let’s say that foreclosure rates are at 20 percent under this program. If 2 million people sign up for the no-down program, and 400,000 people walk away, then let that loan get assumed by the next buyer without qualification. The likely target buyer will be the person who lost their house in foreclosure during the past 3 years. They can’t get new credit, but they might want to return to those “pride of ownership” homes. They will write a check, and save the system from 1 more foreclosure. The original intent of the program is to get first time buyers  into a house. The secondary benefit is it will get homes back to the people that lost their homes.

Have you ever noticed that if you have great financing, then you can get more for a property? You could probably get a premium for financing on Bruce’s program.

A secondary feature of this program is that when it goes to trustee sale, the opening bid would be just the back payments. Example: Lets say you have a loan amount of $150,000 at 4.5% interest. 3 months behind, people begin the foreclosure process. 4 months later, the foreclosure sale begins. You’re 7 months behind on the property’s payment, with $1,000 dollars of payment per month. If the opening bid at the trustee sale was only $9,000, how many do you think would revert to the lender? None of them. We would fight over them. At 4.5% financing, that is an amazing deal. Not a large percentage of the sales would get to that point, but they would provide financing to investors; the group that no one wants to finance. Investors would overbid on a situation as competitive as that.

What would we do with the excess money being raised from these properties? Lets not reward people who do not do what they sign up to do. Let’s build a fund for something that does good. It doesn’t even have to be a government program. Bruce frequently sees ads in the newspaper in which wealthy people are encouraged to donate their money. We should donate this money to a nonprofit company who can make this loan. Doing this will cause no losses, and it will end in a yield. Bruce cannot see this program losing money.

Over the next few weeks we will be broadcasting the speeches given by the rest of panelists. These panelists are Peter Wayman, Christopher Thornberg, Joseph Magdziarz, Sean O’Toole, Tommy Williams, Daniel Phelan, and Sarah Letts.

Peter Wayman joined Freddie Mac in January 2010 as Sr. REO Sales Director.  In this position, he oversees the design of sales strategies and how they are applied across REO portfolios.  His group oversees the retail sales process as well as auction and investor sales.  Peter is also responsible for the affordable strategies selling homes to organizations engaged in neighborhood stabilization.

Wayman came to Freddie Mac with 32 years of executive relocation experience working with various organizations including Cartus, Prudential and Citigroup.  He was recognized for a lifetime industry achievement and inducted into the Hall of Leaders by Worldwide ERC.  Peter is a graduate of Cornell University with a BS in Hotel Administration.

Christopher Thornberg is an expert in the study of regional economies, real estate dynamics, labor markets and business forecasting. In 2006 he co-founded Beacon Economics, an economic research and consulting firm that specializes in real estate markets, local economic development, and public and private policy issues.

Dr. Thornberg has established a reputation as one of the state’s leading economic forecasters. In December 2007, he was appointed to California State Controller John Chiang’s Council of Economic Advisors – the body that advises the state’s chief fiscal officer about critical economic issues facing California. Dr. Thornberg also serves on the advisory board of Paulson & Co. Inc., one of Wall Street’s most successful hedge funds. He has been involved in a number of special studies measuring the effect of important events on the economy.

Joseph C. Magdziarz, MAI, SRA is the President Elect of the Appraisal Institute. Magdziarz has been an active member of the Appraisal Institute for 38 years. He has served in a variety of capacities at all levels of the organization.

At the regional level, Magdziarz has served two terms as Regional Vice Chair and two terms as Region III Chair. He has also been a regional representative for many years. On the national level, Magdziarz served two terms on the Appraisal Institute’s National Board of Directors. He has served as Chair of the Education Committee for five years and has also chaired the National Audit Committee, Instructor and Faculty Committees, and Education and Publications Committees. In addition, he has served on a number of project teams.

Mr. Phelan is President and CEO, charged with the day-to-day leadership of Pacific Southwest Realty Services mortgage operations. Pacific Southwest Realty Services is an investment firm focused on commercial real estate, representing and advising both real estate clients and institutional investors in debt and equity placement, strategic planning, property sales and loan administration. Pacific Southwest Realty Services brings competence and integrity to helping Investors and Owners meet their capital needs.

Mr. Phelan joined Pacific Southwest Realty Services in September 1973 after graduating with a B.S. from Creighton University and has been working in the mortgage banking industry ever since. He is both a Certified Mortgage Banker (CMB) and a Charter Realty Investor (CRI) and has been very active and has held various positions in the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), California Mortgage Bankers Association (CMBA), local building industry trade groups and the CRI Society Board.

Thomas L. Williams is a graduate of Penn State University (B.S. Animal Science) and the Certified Auctioneers Institute (CAI). Representing the third generation of Williams family auctioneers dating back to the mid-1800s, Williams is also a graduate of the historic Reppert School of Auctioneering. He has over 40 years experience in real estate auctions, land development and real estate investment. He currently serves as Immediate Past President of the National Auctioneers Association.

A founding partner of Williams & Williams, Williams served as president from 1986-2000, and became board chairman in 2001. He also co-founded and served as managing partner of Lowderman & Williams Auctioneers from 1965-85. He has conducted over 10,000 auctions in all 48 of the contiguous United States and Canada, and is an advisor to auctions conducted throughout Western Europe, South Africa, Australia and New Zealand.

Sean O’Toole is Founder & CEO of ForeclosureRadar.com, the only company that tracks every foreclosure in California with daily updates on all foreclosure auctions. Prior to ForeclosureRadar Sean spent 15 years building and launching software companies before entering the foreclosure business in 2002 where he has successfully bought and sold more than 150 foreclosure properties.

Sarah Letts is responsible for implementing Fannie Mae’s neighborhood stabilization strategies including pool sales of REO to government entities, land banks, and nonprofits. She joined Fannie Mae in 1999, and prior to her current position, she specialized in debt financing and equity investments for affordable housing. Before joining Fannie Mae, Sarah developed affordable housing on behalf of community development corporations in Los Angeles and Chicago. Sarah received bachelor’s degrees from Stanford University in economics and political science and a masters degree from UCLA’s graduate school of architecture and urban planning.

Thornberg was the next speaker for the event.

Thornberg begins by disagreeing with Bruce over his zero down program. He explains that FHA loans have been spiking over the last 10 years. Bruce asks, “What about the first 35 years?” Thornberg believes that the activity over the last 5 years is the most relevant, but Bruce believes it is the pricing structure that is most important.

Paul Romer from Stanford University once said, “A crisis is a terrible thing to waste.” Thornberg believes we have wasted our most recent crisis. We keep hearing how the consumer has taken over too much debt, but this is not the case. We learned in the Great Depression that banks should not be allowed to leverage up. Leveraging up turns a small problem into a huge one.

In 1960, of all private sector debt in the U.S., 10% was from the financial sector. In 2007, the financial sector represented 43% of outstanding private sector debt. Consumers didn’t really leverage that much.

We still haven’t really addressed the problem of leveraging. After Lehman Bros fell, they created TARP, and handed money to the organizations causing the problem.

Bruce has a hard time understanding how inflation emerges when it is difficult for wages to increase, and when it is difficult for businesses to ask for product increases. Because Bruce read a book given to him by Thornberg, he now understands that inflation actually drives both of those things. Inflation occurs when the quantity of money rises more rapidly than output. This is known as real GDP. The more rapid the rise in the quantity of money per unit of output, the greater the rate of inflation.

Bruce asks, “If Milton Freedman was looking at Japan’s growth of money over the last 20 years, haven’t they created a lot of money?” Thornberg replies, “no”. Economists agree that the problem with Japan’s central bank is that they have been unwilling to poor liquidity into the economy. Japan went through a period of quantitative easing. All their cash sat in banks as a form of excess reserves. Japan’s banks refused to let money leave their reserves, and so their money supply did not expand.

In Argentina, the government prints money and they spend it directly. That is automatically inflationary, because it is instantly being put into the economy.

Ben Bernanke was once known as “Helicopter Ben”, because he had an interesting proposition. If you quantitave ease with the banks, they may not lend it out. If they don’t lend it out, you can give the money to the government to spend, or you can fly around in helicopters and throw the money out in bags. Thornberg does not think that this is a bad idea. One might even argue that this is a better idea than giving the money to the banks or letting the government spend it.

Right now, we are going through a period of quantitative easing. Our government poured money into the banks, and most of it is sitting in the reserves. However, some of the money has gotten into the money supply. As a result, we are staying in the 1 to 2 percent growth range, which is not deflationary.

Thornberg believes price levels can be effectively controlled by policy, if you are willing to go far enough. Ben Bernanke has stood in front of congress, and has announced that he will go far enough. If he sees any hint of deflation, he will pour more money into the system. If he has to go up in a helicopter and throw it out, he will. Ben Bernanke has an incredible amount of control over the price level. The biggest potential problem is that if he fights it too dramatically, then he could set off inflation. At this point in time, Thornberg thinks Bernanke has done a great job with keeping things balanced. Inflation might be a little too low, but we haven’t gone into an unhealthy range of inflation or deflation.

If Bernanke had not poured trillions of dollars into the system, we may have gone into a deflationary situation. That would have lead to deeper problems inside the economy. Bruce worries that we may be mortgaging our future, but Thornberg is not concerned about this, so long as Bernanke is willing to pull the money out at the right time.

Thornberg is not concerned about what Bernanke is doing with the Fed’s cash, but he is concerned about the fiscal problems that may develop. Fiscal changes occur when congress chooses to spend $4 trillion, but only tax $2.7 trillion. In this case, they would have to borrow the extra $1.3 trillion from the rest of the world. That $1.3 trillion must be paid back. When Bernanke moves money around, he doesn’t cause any future liabilities, because he can withdraw that money.

When Bernanke chooses to withdraw that money, it will have a significant effect on the real estate business and the entire economy. Bruce owns a book named An Antique Book of Interest Rates, which was made in 1955. The lowest interest rate in the book is 4.5%. This is not as low as the rates we have right now. This is what Thornberg is most worried about right now. We are in a bond bubble.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

Thank you for being a Gold Sponsor for I Survived Real Estate 2010: Adrenaline Athletics, Benton Investment Group, Community RE-Invest Group, Delmae Properties, Elite Auctions, Entrust California, Everlast Photography, Inland Empire Investors Forum, Keystone CPA, Landwood Title, Las Brisas Escrow, Leivas Financial Services, Mike Cantu, North San Diego Real Estate Investors Association, Northern California Real Estate Investors Association, Personal Real Estate Investor Magazine, Realty 411 Magazine, San Jose Real Estate Investor Association, Rick and LeeAnne Rossiter, San Jose Real Estate Investor Association, Starz Photography, Summit Solutions, Tony Alvarez, Wealth Point, and Westin South Coast Plaza.

Peter Wayman

Senior REO Sales Director for Freddie Mac

September 17^th, 2010, The Norris Group returns with its award winning event I Survived Real Estate 2010. The Norris Group has assembled an incredible line up of industry experts to discuss the state of REO from the inside. Topics will include regulatory intervention and aftermath, bulk buying, myths and facts, and opportunities emerging for real estate professionals. 100 percent of the proceeds support the Orange County affiliate of Susan G. Komen for the Cure. This event would not be possible without generous help from the following platinum partners: Foreclosure Radar and Sean O’Toole, the San Diego Creative Real Estate Investors Association and Bill Tan, Investors Workshops and Shawn Watkins and Angel Bronsgeest, Invest Club for Women and Iris Veneracion and Bobby Alexander, Claudia Buys Houses, The Business Press, Frye Wiles, MVT Productions, and White House Catering.

This week Bruce is joined by Peter Wayman. Peter is the Senior REO Sales Director for Freddie Mac. He oversees the design of sales strategies and how those strategies are applied across the REO portfolio. His group oversees the retail sales process, auctions and investor sales. Peter is responsible for the Affordable Housing Strategy: selling homes to organizations engaged in neighborhood stabilization. Peter came to Freddie Mac with 32 years of executive relocation experience. In that position, he has won national awards and is in the hall of fame.

The major product offered by the relocation industry has been the purchase of the transferee’s home. Peter is accustomed to valuing and selling on a cost plus basis. He does not have to foreclose and evict transferees, but he does have to call executives of companies and tell them the value of their homes. The relocation industry operates globally.

Freddie Mac’s primary method for selling homes is to put them in the hands of great brokers. Also, special incentives are offered to owner occupants to encourage purchasing. Freddie Mac’s focus is to make home buying possible, and to do that by positioning their homes fairly for owner occupants. To effectively use this strategy, homes must be conditioned for financing, buyer’s closing costs must be addressed, and home warrantee programs are offered as well. Freddie is biased towards getting owner occupants into homes.

History shows that if an owner occupant lives in a house, their occupancy improves their neighborhood. Freddie Mac is concerned with neighborhood stabilization. When owner occupants invest their money into a house, they connect more with the community and have more pride in their community.

In 2009, Freddie Mac ended the year with 71% of its homes going to owner occupants. This year, we are slightly under that percentage. We are in a prime selling season now, and Freddie Mac is finishing one of their special programs for owner occupants.

The ratio of 70:30 for owner occupants to other types of owners is considered acceptable by Freddie Mac. Freddie realizes that some of their properties are not currently suitable for occupants. Freddie puts the Neighborhood Stabilization funds into the hands of an NSP grantee for properties in bad condition. The NSP grantee uses the funds to renovate the home, add green energy options to it, and then sell it to an affordable buyer. These homes often receive $30,000 in renovations, which is not something that many private investors can do. Most of these funds are targeting extremely hard hit areas and some homes are even being considered for tear down.

Not all investors do a bad job of renovating properties, but Freddie Mac has to deal with a wide scope of investors. Freddie Mac considers responsible investors to be a viable option for getting rid of inventory.

NSP funds are delivered from a city or county. The largest portions of the funds come from the federal government, but state governments, land banks, and non-profit associations are also engaged in neighborhood stabilization. Freddie Mac is open to working with all of these companies.

Companies with NSP funds have an advantage when looking for properties owned by Freddie Mac. Freddie Mac uses an NCST (National Community Stabilization Trust), which provides access to grantees with NSP funds. The NCST works with a large number of grantees and servicers. It creates an interchange which shows all of the servicer’s properties on a google-type map. The grantees may then look to see if there are properties being offered in their designated census tracks for neighborhood stabilization. They then immediately have the opportunity to ask the servicer for a home’s price. All of this happens during the pre-list phase of moving REO inventory, so grantees have the opportunity to view properties while Freddie Mac is still valuing the properties.

Some cities have had trouble spending their funds for damaged properties. This may be due to the difference in reaction time when compared to a private investor. Some of the NSP-1 funds had to be committed as of today, but there are also NSP-2 and NSP-3 funds. Each grantee takes a different approach on assembling their programs. Some of them got started more quickly than others.

Freddie Mac has been heavily involved in the modification process and in foreclosure alternatives. Peter believes those two tools are becoming much more effective, because the servicers and Freddie Mac are developing more effective automation. Also, staff training has improved, and the real estate community is becoming more educated. All of these things have helped make modifications and foreclosure alternatives more effective.

Banks are beginning to address serious delinquencies. At the end of the 4^th quarter of 2009, serious delinquencies peaked at 4.13 percent of all mortgages. This percentage has been coming down for 5 months in a row.

We are also seeing the REO inventory increasing. In January 2009, we had 21,000 REO homes, and in January 2010, we had 45,000. At the end of July 1^st, we had 62,000 REOs. That 62,000 represents inventory in redemption, eviction, pre-list, listed, sold and going into closing. Generally speaking, over 50 percent of REO inventory is in redemption, eviction, and pre-list. That number is currently closer to 55 percent.

Peter believes it has been proven that losses are lessened by modifications. The sooner you address the problem, the lower the costs are in the process. A foreclosure should be considered a last resort.

Modifications had a 60 percent failure rate. Peter believes that as the modification process has gone to using written verification and careful coaching, the failure rate has gone down.

In September, Peter will be a part of the I Survived Real Estate 2010 panel. He will be speaking in front of about 400 eager investors, who will be trying to figure out how to get their share of Freddie Mac’s properties, and possibly even get a chance at a bulk purchase.

Peter is very excited to work with this charity program. Freddie Mac has to be primarily concerned with getting rid of properties at the lowest cost to the tax payer. Freddie Mac has discovered that nothing works better than listing properties with a great real estate broker, exposing it to the entire market, having a property priced and conditioned right, and allowing that exposure to drive a retail sale within 90 to 120 days. This focus tends to work extremely well. There are some assets that do not sell within that time frame. When assests don’t sell well, Freddie Mac turns to ballroom auctions and online auctions, and finally to bulk sales for investors. Investor bulk sales are not perceived as having the highest potential recovery rate. Less than 0.5 percent goes through bulk investor sales. Freddie Mac is currently developing a better strategy for bulk sales. There should be more bulk sale activity in the future.

Some states have different real estate problems, and there are some problems that necessitate different solutions. In Florida, Freddie Mac has a waver on REO condo requirements, so Florida condos make great candidates for bulk sales. Properties with Chinese drywall, low values, no insurance options, no occupancy certificates, or environmental problems will be more likely to end up in a bulk sale. Lots of investors contact Freddie Mac asking to buy all the $200,000 properties in California and Arizona. Peter responds to those investors saying, “You mean all those properties that I get multiple offers on within the first two weeks of being listed on the market?” Freddie Mac does not need investors to buy those properties.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

Thank you for being a Gold Sponsor for I Survived Real Estate 2010: Adrenaline Athletics, Benton Investment Group, Community RE-Invest Group, Delmae Properties, Elite Auctions, Entrust California, Everlast Photography, Inland Empire Investors Forum, Keystone CPA, Landwood Title, Las Brisas Escrow, Leivas Financial Services, Mike Cantu, North San Diego Real Estate Investors Association, Northern California Real Estate Investors Association, Personal Real Estate Investor Magazine, Realty 411 Magazine, San Jose Real Estate Investor Association, Rick and LeeAnne Rossiter, San Jose Real Estate Investor Association, Starz Photography, Summit Solutions, Tony Alvarez, Wealth Point, and Westin South Coast Plaza.

Sean O’Toole Founder and CEO of ForeclosureRadar (Full Bio)

September 17^th, 2010, The Norris Group returns with its award winning event I Survived Real Estate 2010. The Norris Group has assembled an incredible line up of industry experts to discuss the state of REO from the inside. Topics will include regulatory intervention and aftermath, bulk buying, myths and facts, and opportunities emerging for real estate professionals. 100 percent of the proceeds support the Orange County affiliate of Susan G. Komen for the Cure. This event would not be possible without generous help from the following platinum partners: Foreclosure Radar and Sean O’Toole, the San Diego Creative Real Estate InvestorsAssociation and Bill Tan, Investors Workshops and Shawn Watkins and Angel Bronsgeest, Invest Club for Women and Iris Veneracion and Bobby Alexander, San Jose Real Estate Investors Association and Geraldine Barry, Claudia Buys Houses, Frye Wiles, MVT Productions, and White House Catering.

This week Bruce is joined by Sean O’Toole. Sean is the Founder and CEO of ForeclosureRadar.com. ForeclosureRadar is the only company that tracks every foreclosure in California, Arizona, Nevada, Washington and Oregon. It makes updates daily on all foreclosure auctions. Prior to ForeclosureRadar, Sean spent 15 years building and launching software companies. In 2002, Sean entered the foreclosure business, and bought and sold over 150 properties.

Bruce thinks everyone who is a trustee sale buyer should be a member of ForeclosureRadar. When Sean started Foreclosure Radar, there were only about 40 trustee sale buyers who bought the majority of the deals within the state, but now there are thousands. The invention of the lower bid has created activity. We wish they would drop their opening bids even lower.

5 to 10 billion dollars worth in properties go to the courthouse steps every month. 80 percent of those properties go back to the bank as REOs. The number of REOs have decreased 50 percent from July 2008. However, there are still a huge number of properties being taken back by banks. From a historical perspective, we still have an outrageously high number of REOs.

People tend to have this mentality that nothing bad can happen from here on out, because they don’t think the lenders will unload a bunch of inventory into the market. However, in 2007 and 2008, that is exactly what they did. Up until the end of 2008, regulations required you to file a notice of default after 60 to 90 days of delinquency. In September of 2008, Paulson changed the rules, and since then, they have changed the rules to mark to market. Lenders now have this mentality that discourages them from foreclosing so long as there is some hope of receiving payment at some point in the future.

People are wondering when all the shadow inventory is going to show up and ruin everyone’s day. Shadow inventory has a few different holding tanks. The banks are holding it and not releasing it. In 2008, there was growing evidence that banks had inventory that were not being listed. In 2009, banks started selling more foreclosures than they were taking back. In the mean time, we had delinquencies that were over 90 days delinquent and were not going into foreclosure. Some properties are as much as 180 days delinquent. We have 1 million homeowners in California that are not making payment, but only 200,000 in foreclosure, and only 15,000 to 20,000 being foreclosed on per month.

There is a report claiming that “once a person is behind, the odds of them making that payment current again without a loan modification is 1%”. Sean thinks that may be true historically, but right now, the situation is worse than that. In the past, people went delinquent because of job problems, but this time, they are going late because we had a massive credit bubble that doubled home prices fictitiously. We have now corrected those prices, but we have 4 trillion dollars in excess mortgage debt. People are realizing that they are never going to get that money back, and paying the interest doesn’t help them.

ForeclosureRadar noticed an increase in investor activity in 2009. Subscriptions increased slightly around that time. Right now, people are concerned that the economy and housing might double-dip. Bruce thinks that a double-dip will probably occur.

A lot of ForeclosureRadar’s growth has come from builders and commercial real estate brokers. The court house steps have become much more competitive because of these two groups. They can’t just stop working because their niche isn’t doing well.

From 2002 to 2006, good investors could get a 50 to 75 percent return on capital. In 2007, the market went away because the banks weren’t dropping the bids. In 2008 and 2009, Sean heard plenty of stories about investors getting an 80 percent return on capital. It got really good for a little while, but over the past six months, the market got a lot more competitive. There are plenty of risks with buying at auctions. Bruce believes that someone makes a mistake every day at the courthouse that alters their financial life for a while.

The government has decided that it is better to avoid taking a property back to the lender. ForeclosureRadar is tracking the lenders who are willing to work problems out. Investor short sales concern Sean, especially if the deal is being bought to be flipped. Some people are claiming you can make a lot of money by doing a short sale through a double escrow. Sean thinks people who do that are going to get themselves into trouble. Bruce interviewed the FBI on this subject, and the FBI described the people who do double escrows as perpetrators. There are short sale opportunities out there, but there is a lot of risk involved. It can be difficult to convince lenders that you have added a significant amount of value to a recent short sale.

Lenders understand that auctioned properties are being sold at a discount. On a short sale, lenders believe that a market sale is being made, and they will not like the idea of selling a short sale at $100,000 below market.

Deutsche Bank recently made a report on mortgage servicers and how long it takes to do a short sale. With prime mortgages, GMAC took six months on average, CitiGroup took 7.5 months, Wells Fargo took 8 months, and Countrywide took 13 months. There is a buyer attached to the end of these deals, and no one is going to wait 13 months.

People involved with HAFA brag about their ability to sell within six months, and Bruce thinks that is ridiculous. The problem is that people are not coming to terms with the losses they are going to take. The government also has a few policies that are affecting speed. If Bruce was attached to that business, he would be very frustrated.

Mortgage insurance companies know they will have a better income and have less of a loss with a short sale, but if they have that loss right now, then they’ve got a payout to make. If they do not approve a short sale, and force a property into foreclosure, they may not have to payout for 8 or 9 months.

Sean believes that companies are moving away from principal reductions. Freddie claimed that they are not going to do principal reductions, because they have been tasked with protecting tax payer funds and they cannot just give out principal. If GSEs, who hold a lot of the mortgage debt, start giving out principal reductions, then that comes directly at the cost of the taxpayers. Freddie has a deed-in-lieu lease back program with a lease option. If someone does a deed-in-lieu under this program, they have a two year waiting period before they get to buy a property, and Bruce has the feeling that the property they will buy is that same property they were previously in. That would cause less volatility in the market, because it would discourage buyers from moving around.

Sean recently did some research for American Banker Magazine on jumbo loans. Loans under $417,000 are the fastest to be foreclosed on. Mini jumbos, which range from $417,000 to $729,000, take 30 days longer to foreclose on, and it takes even longer to foreclose on big jumbos. If lenders are struggling to deal with reality anywhere, it is at the high end of the market. Lenders sometimes try to aggressively foreclose with the hope of scaring the borrower into paying, but when they don’t get scared, the borrowers will simply vacate and move, and then the foreclosure gets cancelled. When lenders do not foreclose because they do not want the house, they are usually cancelling foreclosure by the masses. These lenders are often working to get people into the HAFA program, so that they can get a short sale or deed-in-lieu. Sean thinks the HAFA program is just like HAMP last year. It is not meant to conclude a bunch of short sales, it is meant to put people through another six months of delay only to tell them that they do not qualify.

Sean O’Toole’s website is www.foreclosureradar.com

Sean will be on the I Survived Real Estate 2010 panel in September.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

Thank you for being a Gold Sponsor for I Survived Real Estate 2010: Delmae Properties, Elite Auctions, Entrust California, Inland Empire Investors Forum, Keystone CPA, Las Brisas Escrow, Leivas Financial Services, Mike Cantu, North San Diego Real Estate Investors Association, Northern California Real Estate Investors Association, Personal Real Estate Investor Magazine, Realty 411 Magazine, San Jose Real Estate Investor Association, Tony Alvarez, and Westin South Coast Plaza.

Freddie Mac’s claims the average rate for 30-year fixed loans this week fell to 4.44 percent. RealtyTrac reports that national foreclosures increased 3.6% from last month. Initial unemployment insurance claims increased this week by 2,000 to 484,000, according to the Department of Labor. Foreclosure Radar announced notices of default filings in California slipped 4.8% from June, and notices of trustee sale fell 18.9%.

In The News:

NAHB - “Active Adult Home Builder Activity, Confidence Drop” (8-12-10)

“Builder confidence in the mature-housing market retreated during this year’s second quarter, according to data from the National Association of Home Builders’ 55+ Housing Market Index (55+ HMI) – a quarterly survey of the association’s builder members engaged in the production of mature-market housing. This past quarter’s index values dropped for all areas surveyed, compared to the previous year’s second quarter.”

Associated Press – “Mortgage rates hit low of 4.44 pct.” (8-12-10)

“Mortgage buyer Freddie Mac says the average rate for 30-year fixed loans this week was 4.44 percent, down from 4.49 percent last week. That’s the lowest since Freddie Mac began tracking rates in 1971.”

Inman - “FHA premium changes pushed to Oct. 4″ (8-12-10)

“FHA Commissioner David Stevens announced last week that upfront premiums for FHA mortgage insurance would be rolled back from 2.25 percent to 1 percent on Sept. 7, while annual premiums would nearly double. FHA had raised upfront premiums from 1.75 percent to 2.25 percent in April, to cope with rising losses on FHA-guaranteed loans. The Obama administration promised to reduce upfront premiums if Congress gave it the authority to raise annual premiums beyond their statutory limit of 0.55 percent.”

CNN - “Foreclosures rise in July” (8-12-10)

“The latest foreclosure numbers carried a mixed message: They’re up 3.6% from the month before but down 9.7% from 12 months earlier. In July there were more than 325,000 foreclosure filings — including notices of default, auctions notices and bank repossessions. That is the 17th month in a row total filings exceeded 300,000, said RealtyTrac’s CEO, James Saccacio.”

Sacramento Bee – “42,000 of California’s jobless will get help with mortgages” (8-12-10)

“More than 42,000 laid-off California homeowners are about to get a break. Starting Nov. 1, the government will help them make mortgage payments while they look for another job. Wednesday, the U.S. Treasury Department added $476.2 million to a $64 million state program that will pay jobless homeowners up to $1,500 a month.”

Housing Wire – “Weekly Jobless Claims Swell to 484,000″ (8-12-10)

“The number of initial unemployment insurance claims grew by 2,000 to 484,000 in the week ending August 7, swelling more than expected after last week’s initial figure was revised upward. The four-week moving average rose to 473,500, from the previous week’s revised average of 459,250, according to new data today from the US Department of Labor (DOL).”

Housing Wire - “California Foreclosure Activity Remains Mixed in July” (8-12-10)

“California mortgage defaults and foreclosure activity remained mixed in July, according to ForeclosureRadar, which tracks filings across the state. Foreclosure filings and cancellations dropped in July after rising in June while foreclosure sales rose after dropping last month. Notices of default filings slipped 4.8% from June and 47% from the same month last year. Notices of trustee sale fell 18.9% from June and 30.5% from July 2009″

Housing Wire – “Freddie Mac Economist Finds Growing Investor Preference for Hard Cash” (8-12-10)

“In Freddie Mac’s report, ‘Where Have All the Originations Gone?’ released Wednesday, the government sponsored entity (GSE) said that 25% of 2010 existing home sales are all-cash transactions. This proves to be a growing trend in home buying as the percentage of cash transactions was between 5% and 10% just a few years ago.”

Wall Street Journal - “Foreclosed On—By the U.S.” (8-12-10)

“The Federal Reserve Bank of New York is facing the prospect of foreclosing on a number of properties in the coming months, from homes to commercial buildings, a result of a souring mortgage portfolio it took over when it helped bail out Bear Stearns in 2008.”

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

Tommy Williams 2008 President of The National Auctioneers Association   Co-Founder Williams and Williams Auctions (Full Bio)

September 17^th, 2010, The Norris Group returns with its award winning event I Survived Real Estate 2010. The Norris Group has assembled an incredible line up of industry experts to discuss the state of REO from the inside. Topics will include regulatory intervention and aftermath, bulk buying, myths and facts, and opportunities emerging for real estate professionals. 100 percent of the proceeds support the Orange County affiliate of Susan G. Komen for the Cure. This event would not be possible without generous help from the following platinum partners: Foreclosure Radar and Sean O’Toole, the San Diego Creative Real Estate InvestorsAssociation and Bill Tan, Investors Workshops and Shawn Watkins and Angel Bronsgeest, Invest Club for Women and Iris Veneracion and Bobby Alexander, San Jose Real Estate Investors Association and Geraldine Barry, Claudia Buys Houses, Frye Wiles, MVT Productions, and White House Catering.

This week Bruce is joined by Tommy Williams. Tommy is the past president of the National Auctioneers Association and cofounder of Williams and Williams Auctions. He has conducted over 10,000 auctions in 48 states and Canada. He is an advisor to auctions conducted in Western Europe, South Africa and New Zealand.

The auction business extends to almost any category. The world’s largest takes place every day in New York, and we call it the New York Stock Exchange. Buyers and sellers meet there and someone is conducting the price.

There are different acceptance levels in different countries toward auctions and different industries. If Tommy was planning to sell livestock, he would sell it through auction. Auctions are the accepted method for selling livestock of any kind. Used cars and used heavy equipment are also commonly sold through auction. Rare collectible items are sold through auctions too. The problem is that people developed a negative mentality of real estate auctions after the Great Depression when foreclosure Sheriff sales were occurring. This has caused people to perceive auctioned real estate as depressed, but in reality, auctioning is one of the best way to determine market value for real estate too.

Bruce read an article about an auction for Pete Rose’s baseball bat. It sold for $156,000 and the auctioneers thought that was too little. You sometimes cannot know what something will sell for, and that is the purpose of an auction; it reveals what a buyer is willing to pay. Tommy believes we get ourselves into trouble when we try to twist the market place, and we need the natural market to determine true value. We tried twisting real estate and we got disastrous results. Bruce feels like we are in the phoniest market he has ever experienced in his life. The government is trying to artificially influence the market.

Six years ago, Tommy started selling homes in the bad areas of Detroit. Those homes were selling for $10,000 to $16,000. The sellers were angry and said that Tommy should not have sold their properties. The city officials even threatened to stop auctions. If you go back to those homes today, you will notice that they have all been bulldozed, because there was no demand to meet the supply. It is difficult for sellers to accept that their homes are no longer as valuable as they once were. If those homes were bulldozed, then that tells Bruce that the value of those homes was not even $10,000 fifteen years later, it was zero.

Tommy has many stories about investors who bought properties at a discount, and then sold through an auction for more than double what they bought those properties for just 90 days before.

Not all auctions are created equal. There is a company in California that buys homes in ballroom auctions, and then re-auctions those homes for a profit. Tommy auctions properties right in front of the house. History has proven to him that this method brings in the greatest net value. All real estate is local. The people within walking distance of your home are the biggest supporters you can have for that neighborhood. When people discover that you can walk down to a property and buy it for what you are willing to give, they become happy bidders. When you move a property to a ballroom auction, the auction may take place hundreds of miles from where the property is. This discourages local buyers, which are the best buyers, from coming.

The real estate market place changes very fast. An auction company as big as Williams and Williams is able to quickly look at trends in different states. Every month, Tommy’s company sells over 1,000 homes throughout the United States. These auctions allow him to determine when a disaster or boom is coming.

If a builder auctions a track of houses, the public will think the builder is in trouble. However, Tommy feels this is irrelevant. Auctioning might still be the best business decision they will ever make. They should go ahead with the auction, and allow their buyers to pay what they are willing to. Bruce can guarantee that in 2005-2006 builders never got full price for a house. The builders could not build fast enough, so they gave their 20 buyers a lottery number and then allowed the winner to buy for full price. If the builders had put those 20 buyers up against each other at an auction, who knows how much more those homes would have sold for. Auctions are incredibly value in an increasing market, because they allow you to see how much people think your house is worth at that moment. If you interfere, you put a sealing on your home value, which could be very low.

Tommy believes buyers often feel that auction results are manipulated. Tommy would blame the auction industry for that buyer mentality, because in the past, auctions have not been conducted in the right manner. If you are going to hire an auction company, check how long they have been in that location, and check their references. Talk to other people who used the company to sell in the past.

Online auctions are becoming more popular, and it can reduce the level of trust that a buyer will have in the auction company, especially if that auction company has a bad history.

Tommy auctions off a lot of privately owned properties. He did not start selling bank owned properties until about six years ago. His company is built around selling private property.

Too many people look at life in the short term. The auction profession has an unlimited amount of potential, and he would encourage any of his children to get into it. However, you have to enter this business with a long term plan. Before this year ends, Williams and Williams will begin to broadcast their auctions live, so anyone in the world can bid. This technology may cause some bidders to feel like they are being tricked, because they will not be able to see all the bidders making offers. Tommy is trying to obtain technology that will allow the bidders at the auction site to see the activity of the online bidders.

Bruce feels it is unfortunate that auction companies too often view each other as nothing more than competitors. Tommy believes there are many ethical auction companies out there, which he is willing to refer people to. We need to have a spirit of good will towards other people. When you are trying to tear down your competitor, you tear down yourself.

Lenders have come to the conclusion that they do not want to take a property back as an REO. These people would make a great team member with an auction company. Lenders are becoming more willing to accept the value given to them at an auction.

Tommy is now getting involved in the Assisted Sales Auction Program. This process involves a person who still owns and occupies a property, but is trying to accomplish a short sale. Bruce thinks that is a trend that makes a lot of sense. Bruce was on a panel with someone who was touting that they could get a sell done within six months through the HAFA program. This made Bruce laugh on the inside, because he wanted to say that he knew someone who could get the job done quicker.

Thank you Tommy for participating in The Norris Group’s radio show. Tommy will be on the panel for I Survived 2010.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

Thank you for being a Gold Sponsor for I Survived Real Estate 2010: Delmae Properties, Elite Auctions, Entrust California, Inland Empire Investors Forum, Keystone CPA, Las Brisas Escrow, Leivas Financial Services, Mike Cantu, North San Diego Real Estate Investors Association, Northern California Real Estate Investors Association, Personal Real Estate Investor Magazine, Realty 411 Magazine, San Jose Real Estate Investor Association, Starz Photography, Tony Alvarez, and Westin South Coast Plaza.