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California Real Estate Headline Roundup

Posts Tagged ‘asset’

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 3/1/11

Tuesday, March 1st, 2011

Today’s News Synopsis:

The CBIA reports housing production decreased 56% from December, and the Commerce Department reports construction spending dropped 0.7%. A survey from Equity-Trax shows that short sales currently take around 4 to 9 months to complete. Lender Processing Services claims foreclosure starts fell 11.4% in January.

In The News:

CBIA - “California Housing Production Dips in January, CBIA Announces” (3-1-11)

“According to statistics compiled by the Construction Industry Research Board (CIRB), permits were pulled for 2,920 total housing units in January, down 5 percent from the same month a year ago and down 56 percent from December. Permits for single-family homes totaled 1,506, down 24 percent from January 2010 and down 55 percent from the previous month, while multifamily permits totaled 1,414, up 28 percent from a year ago but down 57 percent from December.”

Bloomberg - “U.S. Construction Spending Falls on Slump in Commercial Works” (3-1-11)

“The 0.7 percent drop brought the value of all projects down to a $791.8 billion annual rate, the lowest since August, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. Outlays on private non-residential works dropped 6.9 percent, the most since January 1994, which may in part reflect the influence of winter storms.”

Housing Wire“Geithner wants Congress to act on Fannie, Freddie in next two years” (3-1-11)

“Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner asked lawmakers Tuesday to pass legislation on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac reform within the next two years.”

Housing Wire“Short sales still take too long on average, report says” (3-1-11)

“Seventy-one percent of agents surveyed in a new study conducted by data analytics firm Equi-Trax Asset Solutions said it takes four to nine months on average to finish a short sale. About 10% of the transactions take more than 10 months, and 18.3% are finalized within the preferred three-month time frame, the report concluded after surveying 600 real estate agents.”

Housing Wire“Freddie Mac mortgage purchases down 23% in January” (3-1-11)

“Mortgage purchases and issuances at Freddie Mac fell to $38.8 billion in January, down from $49.7 billion in December, according to Freddie’s latest monthly loan volume summary.”

Housing Wire“Commercial real estate brought down failed banks in February” (3-1-11)

“Of the nonperforming loans on the balance sheets of the 12 banks that failed in February, 72% were for commercial real estate, according to analytics firm Trepp.”

Housing Wire“Mortgage lenders move more foreclosures back into delinquent bucket: LPS” (3-1-11)

“The number of foreclosure starts fell about 11.4% in January from a month earlier, but delinquency rates rose slightly because many lenders are moving loans out of foreclosure and back into the seriously delinquent category, according to Lender Processing Services”

Bloomberg - “Commercial-Property Deals May Double in U.S. as Blackstone Bets on Rebound” (3-1-11)

“Blackstone Group LP’s planned $9.4 billion purchase of U.S. shopping centers and Ventas Inc.’s proposed $5.7 billion buyout of a health-care real estate investment trust, one of two multi- billion dollar health care REIT deals announced yesterday, may mean a wave of commercial real estate acquisitions is coming as buyers regain confidence in the market.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, California officials considered implementing new builder fees. Home sales had generated $934 million from the previous year. Fannie mae lost 15.9 billion dollars during quarter 4 of 2009. Warren Buffet predicted the residential real estate market would begin to recover in 2011.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

204-TNG Radio – Tom Anderson 12-11-10

Friday, December 10th, 2010

Tom Anderson

Chairman and Founder of PENSCO Trust Company


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This week Bruce is joined again by Tom Anderson. Tom is the chairman and founder of PENSCO Trust Company. He is considered by many to be the national expert on the topic of self directed IRAs. He focuses on how investors can increase their wealth-building potential with real estate and private equity investments. He has written articles for nearly all the nation’s and financial magazines. He was recently invited to Washington as part of the “Future of Finance Initiative” for the Obama Administration.

You can loan money to your IRA if you attempting to protect the existence of the IRA. You cannot loan money to your IRA to buy new lots. The loan must also be interest free. If it did have an interest rate, the loan would be considered self dealing, because you would be taking profit out of your IRA. Lastly, if the loan extends more than 60 days, you must provide the custodian with a note explaining that the IRA owes you money.

Tom recently spoke to a member of the Department of Labor who created this exemption, and the member confirmed that you could loan money to your IRA to bail it out of mortgage delinquency.

There are some IRA investments which may or may not be considered illegal depending on which government official is reviewing the investment. For example, Tom once heard of a man who used his IRA to buy a classic car. Because the car is a classic, there is good reason to believe the car will appreciate. However, a government official might consider this self dealing, because they may or may not perceive the classic car to be for personal use. If the government perceives the car to be for personal use, then the car purchase would be labeled self dealing. Depending on which day the car purchase was reviewed, and depending on who reviewed the purchase, this may or may not be a legal IRA purchase. You can perform a large variety of transactions within your IRA, but you must be careful not to purchase anything that the government might perceive as self dealing. If the government believes you are self dealing with your IRA, then your IRA will lose its tax-deferred status.

Bruce’s business is set up to buy and sell real estate. Bruce asks Tom if there is a limit on how much money, or how many houses, he could use for his IRA. Tom believes that this is up for interpretation. In Bruce’s case, he owns a real estate business, so if he performs many transactions through his IRA, the government may possibly perceive Bruce to be running a business through his IRA. All businesses must pay taxes, and if the government determined that Bruce was running his business through his IRA, then he might lose the tax-deferred status of his IRA. Tom believes that if Bruce was both working in his IRA for retirement investments, and out of it for business use, then it would be hard for the government to label Bruce’s IRA as a business. However, if Bruce was retired, and he only purchased and sold properties through his IRA, then the government may perceive Bruce to be running a business through his IRA. You should consult with your CPA to determine whether or not you will be subject to taxes.

A disqualified person is a term in the Internal Revenue Code 4975 which defines certain entities as people you cannot perform transactions with. The government does not want you to touch your IRA assets, because they want your assets to be there when you retire. So you cannot buy a condo in a vacation spot with your IRA, and then use that condo on the weekends. Disqualified persons include yourself, your spouse, your children, and the spouses of your children. Most people in your family are considered disqualified persons, except for siblings, nephews and uncles. If you deal with a sibling or nephew, you should not offer them less than market rates. Giving a member of your family the benefit of low payments through an IRA asset could be considered self dealing.

Bruce heard an unusual example of someone who was taxed for self dealing. An investor owned a commercial building, and his IRA owned the let next to it. The investor would park in the lot next door, and that was considered illegal personal use. You are not allowed to gain a personal benefit from your IRA while the IRA is growing. If a mistake like this occurs, you have 14 days to correct it. However, if the custodian was the cause of the mistake, then you can argue in court that the custodian should be held responsible.

Tom’s company will not accept any member that is not a part of a regulated institution. If he did not check to determine whether or not his members were being regulated, many bad people would have the opportunity to deal through them. A non-regulated company may enter into an agreement with a bank who is a custodian. All banks, credit unions and trust companies are automatically qualified to hold IRAs. If you are not one of those institutions, then you must be authorized by the IRS. There are 257 mutual fund companies, insurance companies, and broker dealers that are licensed by the IRS.

It is good business to protect the consumer, and the government supports that mentality. PENSCO will not help someone enter into a prohibited transaction. If a lender was involved in a prohibited transaction on an IRA, then they would be subject to a 15% tax on the amount of the transaction. So a lender that made a $100,000 bill would receive a $15,000 bill. If the lender was not aware of the prohibited transaction, then they may be exempt from the tax.

When an investor is told that he cannot buy a property from himself with his IRA, he may get the idea of having a friend buy his property, and then re-buying from his friend. However, this is still considered an illegal transaction. This is considered a linked transaction by the IRS. You will not go to jail for performing a transaction like this unless you fail to pay the penalty taxes. However, the IRS tends to not inform you of your mistakes until 3 years later, so you can get caught off guard if you are not careful.

If you buy a property through your IRA while using your brother as a lender, you will not be taxed so long as your brother does not receive more than his regular fee.

A Prohibited Transaction Exemption (PTE) is a request submitted to the Department of Labor when you anticipate that your potential transaction may be prohibited. A PTE is usually granted on the basis that there is no increase or decrease in value because of the transaction. You cannot submit a PTE after the transaction takes place. The exemption comes in writing, so the Good Day rule does not apply.

There are some custodians who offer check book IRAs. Tom believes this practice will probably be extinct soon. There are only two custodians Tom knows of that will do check book IRAs, and PENSCO is one of them.

Tom’s website is www.penscotrust.com

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 3/17/10

Wednesday, March 17th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

The CBIA reports that new home sales decreased by 12 percent from January of 2009. Mortgage loan application decreased by 1.9 percent from last week. HOPE NOW made over 99,000 modifications in January, and HAMP made over 50,000.

In The News:

CBIA - “California New-Home Market Begins 2010 Still in the Red, CBIA Announces” (3-17-10)

“The monthly CBIA/Hanley Wood Market Intelligence (HWMI) New-Home Sales and Pricing Report showed that sales in new-home communities of 10 units or more were 12 percent below January 2009. This was a slight improvement from the 15 percent year-over-year decline in December, but was still a lackluster pace. During January, 1,886 new homes and condominiums were sold in the subdivisions tracked by Costa Mesa-based HWMI, compared to 2,137 in January 2009. Sales of single-family homes were down by 17 percent, while sales of townhomes and “plexes” – duplexes, triplexes, etc. – rose by 8 percent and sales of condominiums were 4 percent lower than a year ago.”

Mortgage Bankers AssociationMortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey” (3-17-10)

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 12, 2010.  The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.  On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1.7 percent compared with the previous week.”

Housing WireCiti Mortgage Workouts Outnumber Foreclosures 15 to 1 in Q409″ (3-17-10)

“CitiMortgage, the mortgage servicing branch of Citigroup (C: 4.09 +0.99%), worked with nearly 128,000 borrowers in Q409 to avoid foreclosure on almost $19bn in mortgage loans, according to the company. Loan modifications in the distressed asset portfolios outpaced both foreclosures and delinquencies. Modifications increased 17% in Q409 from the previous quarter. For the entire year of 2009, Citi loan modifications increased 47% from 2008.”

Housing Wire“HOPE NOW Modifies Mortgages Twice as Fast as HAMP” (3-17-10)

“HOPE NOW, an alliance between mortgage service professionals and non-profit counselors, reported 99,499 modifications in January, compared to 50,364 new permanent modifications under the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP). January HOPE NOW modification numbers dropped only slightly from 104,423 non-HAMP modifications in December, compared to roughly 35,000 permanent modifications under HAMP in that same month.”

Housing Wire“Industry Wants Risk Retention Exemption in Dodd Bill” (3-17-10)

“Senator Christopher Dodd (D-CT), chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, unveiled details of a new bill to Congress yesterday that aims to overhaul the financial regulatory system and establish the Consumer Financial Protection Agency (CFPA). Under the Restoring American Financial Stability Act of 2010, financial firms would be required to hold a portion of the credit risk inherent in certain loan products on their books. This ‘risk retention’ is designed to make banks hold an interest in the financial products they create.”

Inman - “Fed to end MBS purchases” (3-17-10)

“Mortgage rates are expected to rise gradually as the Federal Reserve left a key short-term interest rate untouched Tuesday, but said it would wrap up $1.25 trillion in purchases of mortgage-backed securities this month. In a statement, the Federal Open Market Committee said its target for the federal funds overnight rate will remain in the range of zero to 0.25 percent, as inflation is likely to remain ‘subdued for some time.’”

Looking Back:

One year ago, over 15,000 homes and apartments were sold in Southern California within a month. The NAHB reported that housing starts increased by 22 percent in February of 2009. Builder confidence was at a record low for over two months.

120-TNG Radio – Susie Leivas 5-2-09

Friday, May 1st, 2009

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Susie Leivas

Chief Financial Officer with Leivas and Associates

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Bruce Norris is joined once again by Chief Financial Officer with Leivas and Associates, Susie Leivas.

Bruce starts by asking about 1031 exchanges. Many California real estate investors took money out of California to dodge the price declines and are now bringing it back into California. Bruce asks Susie to expand on the 1031 exchange concept. They start by talking on what like-for-like means.

Susie says like-for-like means you can buy any real estate. However, it can’t be personal property. You can switch from investment single family residence for land, as an example, as long as it is an investment property. Boot can happen if money is not spent in an exchange. So when a replacement property is not of higher value and there’s extra left over in the exchange, if it doesn’t get reinvested in like-kind, that left over portion can be taxable. When you close escrow on the property you sold, you only have 45 days to find a replacement property and 180 days to close. If an agent suggests backdating the paper work, DON’T DO IT. Backdating can cause you tax penalties and jail time. The IRS takes this fraud seriously.

Out-of-state ownership of property could require investors to file for that state tax. Depending on the filing status and age of applicant, the Federal Government has an amount cap and after that is hit, the gross amount must be filed. Many states are the same. Check with your tax professional. In California, investors must report their world-wide income which goes on the Federal and California State return. If there is an additional state, they can give you a credit for filing in an additional state which is dollar for dollar.

Worldwide income is required and Bruce asks if investors can deduct world wide losses. Susie says she’s never had a client do that so she’s not sure.

Bruce and Susie talk about precious metal sales and if they are on the honor system. The process doesn’t have an escrow and it’s hard to track. Susie does not know if the IRS has a way of tracking. If the IRS was tracking, they would be looking for deposits that seem odd.

Bruce asks about refinancing properties and 1031 exchanges. Susie says there will be deductible interest issues and there could be a tracing problem.

Bruce talks about credit lines and investors. Many investors in California don’t realize rules about limits on deductible interest. Only $100,000 is allowed. Beyond that, if it can’t be proven that the dollars aren’t spent on home improvements, it’s not deductible. There’s a one million dollar cap on mortgages.

For rentals, it’s a different category. The money just has to be traced and used for that property. You can take out money of one and invest in another but it has to be traceable.

To be declared a real estate professional, there are several categories. 50% or more of everything you do must be real estate related and 750 hours are required. Susie gives an example of a teacher couple who has a rental and how the IRS might look at their situation.

Bruce asks about the forgiveness of debt for an investor versus a regular consumer. A 1099C will be given for the amount of forgiveness. As an investor, the only way out of debt completely is to declare bankruptcy or file for insolvency. The test for insolvency is when you put together all the assets and liabilities. If liabilities exceed the assets, you can claim insolvency. At that moment, the debt is permanently wiped out.

In the past, if a consumer submitted a fraudulent return to a lender and the IRS got a hold of it, the IRS will use that for taxes. For stated income loans, she is unsure of how that is being handled by the IRS.

Bruce asks about an investment rental property that receives repairs and how that is handled in taxes. Susie says the repairs would be capitalized and made part of the purchase of the property. Residential real estate is a 27.5-year asset and it would be deducted over time. Points and financing costs have to be amortized as well.

Dealer status means you are in the business of buying and selling real estate. Intent is key here. Did you mean to buy a property as an investment or was it to buy, fix and sell? This matters for self employment taxes.

Bruce talks about entities. There are S and C Corporations. In C Corps, there are no capital gains. As a dealer in C Corp, it might be a good entity. Before year end, the investor needs to make sure all profit is out of the business by way of bonus and payroll. Social security and Medicare will be paid on that. Things might change soon because of this administration’s intent of foxing social security. Check with your professional tax advisor.

Bruce asks if people can write off home price declines and Susie says no.

Bruce says many investors went into many states that had different recourse rules. People need to understand the difference between recourse and non recourse states.

Bruce and Susie talk about the difference between tax credits and write offs.

Thanks so much Susie for the interview. You can find Susie and her team at leivasassoc.com. Next week join Bruce and Chief Economist of the California Association of Realtors, Leslie Appleton-Young.

In 1990 Susie became enrolled to practice before the Internal Revenue Service and in 2003 became a financial advisor for HD Vest.

Susie’s greatest strength is helping clients understand and feel comfortable with one of life’s ongoing large bills…TAXES. Many people say before meeting Susie going to have their taxes prepared was worse than going to the dentist. Susie helps make the best of one of life’s tough chores.

Susie’s father Richard Leivas started her in the business at the age of thirteen. After completing her education, she and her father became business partners in Leivas Tax & Bookkeeping Service with two locations in Riverside and San Bernardino. In 1992 Leivas Tax and Norton’s Business Service merged, with Leivas acquiring Norton in 1997. Over her career she has demonstrated to clients the tax benefit of retirement planning. After many years of working closely with Jim Kanouse, it made sense to join forces and form Leivas, Kanouse & Associates. Susie was married for the first time in 1999 and spends much of her free time with her husband Bob and her dog Buster in Lake Havasu City. They enjoy the outdoors, boating, and reading, listening to music and spending time with friends.

92-TNG Radio – Peter Schiff 10-18-08

Thursday, October 16th, 2008

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Peter Schiff

President of Euro Pacific Capital

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Bruce Norris is joined by economist and President of Euro Pacific Capital, Peter Schiff. Peter is author of “Crash Proof: How to Profit From the Coming Economic Collapse” and “The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets.”

Bruce starts off by asking if the media and nonbelievers are now sending apologies since Peter had taken such heat for his views. Peter says they have not and doesn’t think many people understand the situation at hand.

Peter sees what the government is only going to make things worse. Although some are taking this week’s erratic behavior as the start of the next bull market, Peter says bear markets are well known for extreme fluctuations.

Bruce asks Peter what has surprised him most in the past 30 days. Peter is surprised that the government has stepped in and pretty much done whatever they want with what remains of our financial market. No one is challenging them.

Peter feels the financial system is in trouble and that we’re broke. Lending institutions loaned money to people who should have never had it. Instead of the banks failing, we’re going to fail.

Peter says that we should expect major inflation. By 2009, we’ll be seeing much bigger, phony CPI numbers. He doesn’t think the government will fess up to the numbers but the consumer will feel it.

Bruce asks about unemployment rate. Peter doesn’t think our wages will increase because we’re not competitive. Home prices will go down but other consumer staples will go up.

Bruce asks if Peter was in charge what he would do. Peter says there’s no solution. The US had a party and now we have a giant hang over. There’s no magic bullet. Peter would let the painful recession run its course. Peter would make government smaller and would slash government spending, military spending, and other drains on savings. We need savings.

Bruce talks about 70% of US GDP being consumer spending and asks what it will be in the future since we can’t keep that up. Since we’ve been borrowing all that money, Peter thinks people should only be spending what they have. We have to get back to basics. He feels we’re setting up a great depression combined with massive inflation.

Foreign investors will lose a lot of money and learn their lesson. No country will want US money and that will worsen inflation. Peter says he’s been surprised the dollar has done so well in the short run. He feels once the selling is over, the dollar is going to take a big hit.

Bruce asks about gold, silver, interest rates and oil and where Peter sees them in the coming year. Peter thinks by next year we’ll be over $100 a barrel. Peter says since the government is in control, it will be hard to say where interest rates will be.

Bruce asks if Peter sees a gold standard coming back and how that might help. Bruce says that we’ve nationalized Fannie, Freddie, and some of the banks, what’s next? Peter is looking to car manufacturers, states, and utilities. The issue is we can’t bail out everyone. FDIC doesn’t insure value, only quantity.

Bruce asks about the people about to retire. Peter thinks people we will be back in the work force and that things are drastically going to change. People will not be able to retire. Peter says his books really addressed how consumers could and can protect assets.

Bruce asks about tax changes. Peter sees tax increases for rich under Obama but the increases will further undermine the ability to create employment opportunities. The middle class will get tax cuts but they won’t do anything. The extra money won’t buy anything. Government will increase spending. If you have no income, the tax cuts don’t matter.

Bruce plays devil’s advocate and asks what a few more trillion would mean. Nobody would be poor if economic wealth could occur by printing money.

Peter strongly believes we need a new solid foundation built on savings and manufacturing. Anyone holding US debt will not get paid. They will get paid but the money will be worth less.

Bruce asks about two specific moves the audience can implement. Peter says to buy gold and silver and says move out of US stocks and go to global stocks. He also says there is a lot of value outside of the Unites States. Bruce says the global markets haven’t done so well in the past three months. Peter doesn’t think those will stay down long term and that most of this is emotional reaction.

Europac.net is Peter’s website and the number to reach his group is 800-727-7922.

Mr. Schiff is one of the few non-biased investment advisors (not committed solely to the short side of the market) to have correctly called the current bear market before it began and to have positioned his clients accordingly. As a result of his accurate forecasts on the U.S. stock market, economy, real estate, the mortgage meltdown, credit crunch, subprime debacle, commodities, gold and the dollar, he is becoming increasingly more renowned. He has been quoted in many of the nation’s leading newspapers, including The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, Investor’s Business Daily, The Financial Times, The New York Times, The Los Angeles Times, The Washington Post, The Chicago Tribune, The Dallas Morning News, The Miami Herald, The San Francisco Chronicle, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, The Arizona Republic, The Philadelphia Inquirer, and the Christian Science Monitor, and appears regularly on CNBC, CNN, Fox News, Fox Business Network, and Bloomberg T.V. His best-selling book, “Crash Proof: How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse” was published by Wiley & Sons in February of 2007. His second book, “The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets: How to Keep your Portfolio Up When the Market is Down” was published by Wiley & Sons in October of 2008.

Mr. Schiff began his investment career as a financial consultant with Shearson Lehman Brothers, after having earned a degree in finance and accounting from U.C. Berkeley in 1987. A financial professional for over twenty years he joined Euro Pacific in 1996 and has served as its President since January 2000. An expert on money, economic theory, and international investing, Peter is a highly recommended broker by many leading financial newsletters and investment advisory services. He is also a contributing commentator for Newsweek International and served as an economic advisor to the 2008 Ron Paul presidential campaign. He holds FINRA Series 4,7,24,27,53,55, & 63 licenses.

90-TNG Radio – I Survived Real Estate 10-11-08

Friday, October 10th, 2008

isurvived2008

I Survived Real Estate 2008

Part Eight

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Part eight of “I Survived Real Estate 2008” picks up with Rick Sharga of RealtyTrac talking about a discussion he had with a man who handled the REO assets at a credit union. The man was wondering if RealtyTrac could supply him a list of who owned the firsts on a list properties. Rick was surprised since he thought that would have been information that was gathered. The man said they did not have the information as little information was gathered on the first mortgage and little was taken on the homebuyer.

Rick says this downturn is different from others in that other downturns were preceded by an economic downturn. RealtyTrac feels this kicked in first quarter of 2006. Unemployment was historically low as were interest rates. Rick sees we saw capitalism at its worst. We saw Realtors and mortgage brokers getting greedy along with Wall Street. Tools were being used in ways they never should have been used. The wheels this time all came off at once.

Bruce says there are a lot of new people in business. The greatest bull run got more and more people in and they rationalized that it would continue. Bruce talks about the discussions people make in a boom market and why it’s unwinding. Bruce also mentions a bet with a friend he made where he thought oil prices would be at $50 before they hit $150. This was when the price was $142.

Bruce asks Richard Lambros how the building industry looks at this market and the possibility of building. Richard talks about the builder journey through the last few years. This is a housing crisis combined with a credit crisis. Richard brings up how most people don’t like the solutions being presented but feels the solutions may be less painful then letting it correct on its own. He says builders are really in a position of waiting and the core issues are still an issue. California homes are very expensive to create and the government doesn’t seem to realize that.

Bruce asks Richard if when building resumes if the size of the homes will decline. Richard says the average went from 2,200 to 2,500 square feet and builders were looking at demand.

Bruce says he thinks this is an unusual event and this might never been happen again in our lifetime. Prices might skew so low that it will eventually attract mass migration. Once our home prices dip below those of neighboring states, we win the climate and coast battle and win migration. Once we get the migration, building will really be up and running again.

Tommy chimes in and says there are other states that had the same inventory for half the price of the states that got overheated. Overheated states have to come back to “normal.”

Bruce says he agrees but says that’s part of the reason he loves California real estate. California wins so many tie breakers. There’s exciting volatility you don’t get in other states.

Bruce talks about Fannie and Freddie and if we’ll see them stay in private ownership.

Christopher Thornberg says they are clearly insolvent and he doesn’t know what they will do or how they will react. Typically they overact.

Bruce asks the panel if the government writing these big checks will increase inflation and if we’ll see much different interest rates three years from now.

Christopher describes the two ways our government pays the bills; issue debt or printing money. Christopher says our government assumes that investors have confidence in the system. If investors see the bottom drop out of the public bond market and the treasuries go crazy then there’s a problem but he says we’re far from that. Christopher says interest rates are now adjusting for the increased risk. Eventually they’ll come down when this crisis passes.

Bruce talks about when he became an investor he refinanced his house at 17% interest. Many people were telling him at the time he’d never see single digit interest rates again. Bruce says interest rates can be very high as long as the income to median price ratio makes sense. There could still be a healthy market.

Rick talks about market psychology and how nervous buyers and lenders are at the moment.

Bruce talks about the velocity of price drops in the market being historical and some are unaware. 35-50% price declines are shocking.

Joel discusses a Zillow study where 7 out of 10 people thought their home was still appreciating. Christopher Thornberg calls that homo-illucination and what it stands for.

Bruce asks Phil Tirone if lenders are skewing too conservative and not making loans at all. The automated underwriting was such a blessing at the time because it made things ease and now it’s making it worse. Phil describes people putting 50% down and he still can’t get financing because his client’s credit score is low.

Christopher says those automated systems were a disaster and that lenders knew how to manipulate the systems. Philip says these systems did help cause the problem. Christopher says once the price gets down low everyone will qualify.

Bruce touches on affordability. Bruce describes affordability and what it solves and does not solve. He describes past cycles and what he looks for in a turned around market.

More in the last and final show. See also the video on YouTube or Google video.

The following partners and sponsors without whom the event would not have been possible:

Platinum Sponsors:

The San Diego Creative Investors Association (SDCIA): sdcia.com

Investors Workshops: investorsworkshops.com

Frye Wiles: fryewiles.com

Proxibid: proxibid.com

White House Catering: whcatering.com

MVT Productions: mvtpro.com

Pechanga Resort and Casino: pechanga.com

The Denver Nuggets: nba.com nuggets

The Chicago Bulls: nba.com bulls

The Cleveland Cavaliers: nba.com cavaliers

Gold Sponsors:

7 Steps to a 720 Credit Score and Philip X. Tirone – 7stepsto720.com

Chicago Title – ctic.com

Elite Auctions – sellwithauction.com

Foreclosure Trackers – foreclosuretrackers.com

Investors Resource Center of America LA and Steve and Robyn Love – irca-losangeles.com

Las Brisas Escrow – lasbrisasescrow.com

National Club of Real Estate Investors and Sam Saddat – ncrei.com

Northern California Real Estate Investors Association (Norcalreia) and David Granzella – norcalreia.com

North San Diego Real Estate Investors and Linda Wessels – nsdrei.org

RealtyTrac – realtytrac.com

RE Ventures and Michael Pines – reventuresrealty.com

Real Estate Investors Club of Los Angeles and Phyllis Rockower – realestateclubla.com

Real Wealth Investor and Scott Whaley – realwealthinvestor.com

Saddleback Valley Communities – svc4.com

Silverstar Finance and Janet French – silverstarfinance.com

Sunset Hills Memorial Park and Mortuary – sunsethills.cc

The Mission Inn – missioninn.com

The Mortgage Equity Group – http: themeg.net

The Naked Real Estate Investor Club – Rosie Nieto – nakedrealestateinvestorsclub.com

The Short Sale Processor and Nick Manfredi – theshortsaleprocessor.com

Virtual Real Estate Tour and Layla Tusko – 1wealthcreation.com

Wholesale Capital Corporation – wccmtg.com