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Posts Tagged ‘appraiser’

177-TNG Radio – Rick Solis 6-5-10

Friday, June 4th, 2010

Rick Solis

Appraiser and Investor

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This week Bruce is joined once again by Rick Solis. Rick wears many hats. He is a real estate investor, he is the appraiser for all of TNG’s hard money loans, and he occasionally trains people to appraise in TNG’s REO investing boot camps.

Rick bought his first house a week after his 20th birthday. This house was in Montclair. He sold it at the peak of the market, but then 10-31 exchanged the money from that property into another one, and eventually lost all the profit. He owed approximately $250,000 for the Montclair property in 1988, and he sold it for $450,000. He was paying for the home with the tenant, so they split the profit earning $100,000 each. In 1988, he read the Robert Allen books. Using that information, he found a realtor who helped him get a loan for this house.

The books Rick read helped him to think creatively about investment. However, Rick no longer uses creative investment techniques. Today, Rick is primarily concerned with buying properties below market. When you invest creatively, you usually owe 100 percent of what it is worth, and you do not have an equity option.

Rick and Bruce first met at a Nick Manfredi meeting in which Bruce spoke. Bruce was offering a deal on his product Selling Systems. Rick bought the book, and liked it so much that he came back and bought the rest of Bruce’s books.

Rick had a difficult time building an investment relationship with Bruce. The first time Rick asked Bruce to help him invest in a property, Rick was looking at a 5-unit property in San Bernardino. After describing the property, Bruce simply said, “No, that is not something I would be interested in.” Bruce thinks he might need to do a better job of explaining his decisions in the future. The reason why Bruce was not interested in this property was because he had previously tried buying similar properties in San Bernardino and that experience did not end well. Sometimes investors just get used to a specific niche and choose not to work with anything else.

Bruce bought a lot of 4-plexes in Moreno Valley during the 1990s. He sold these properties for $139,000, and their value peaked at $600,000. One of these properties recently opened for bid at a trustee sale for 1 dollar. This type of property has a tendency to cause a domino effect for other similar properties in the area; when one goes bad the rest usually follow. A lot of towns just tear these properties down.

Rick met Andrea at a book store in 2003. Rick told Andrea about Bruce’s boot camp, and she decided to attend it. At that time, the boot camp was pretty basic, but it told you exactly what you need to know when buying houses.

In the past, Rick advertised through the newspaper. Andrea advertised through letter campaigns. When Rick started working with Andrea, they were doing 1,000 letters per week, and they averaged 4 to 6 houses per month using this method. Their business relationship worked to their advantage, because some people do not want to work with men, and others do not want to work with women. Rick and Andrea have very different selling strategies. Rick’s selling strategy is straight forward; he looks at what you have and gives you an offer. Andrea can sell anything to anyone, even at a discounted price. Andrea’s ability to sell is more than a technique, it is a natural gift.

The longer Rick and Andrea did letter campaigns, the harder it got. When they first started they could find plenty of people with just a couple hundred, but by 2007 the lettering campaign become too expensive to pay for itself.

Most of the properties they bought were flipped in 2006. One of these properties was flipped to Bruce’s auction, and it worked very well for Rick. Unfortunately, the auctioning business did not work well for Bruce. Bruce started an auctioning business with high hopes, but discovered that it was very difficult to attract buyers. Rick tried helping Bruce by wearing TNG t-shirts and posting signs, but he was only able to get a couple people to attend his auction.

At the end of the boom, Rick got cocky because of how easy it was to buy and sell. Rick decided to 10-31 exchange into other properties in order to avoid taxes. Unfortunately, he reinvested too much and he lost a lot of the profit he gained from his California properties. Next time, Rick plans to just sell his properties, pay the taxes, and live happily with that.

Rick finds all his properties through the MLS. Sometimes agents bring deals to Rick. Lots of investors are entering the real estate business. About ¾ of the buyers are investors now. Unfortunately, many investor offers do not close. Some agents are now refusing to accept offers from investors now, because of the bad reputation investors now have for not closing.

Right now, the best-working strategy for Rick seems to be driving around and looking at properties. He does this 1 day per week, and Andrea does this 3 days per week. They both buy 3 properties per month. They hold 2/3 of them as rentals, and they intend to sell them as prices increase. After the next price increase, Rick intends to sell all of his properties and stop.

Rick and Andrea invest in the High Desert area. There are not many resale opportunities in that area, so they are primarily renting there. Many of the people in that area have bad credit, and will probably always be renters. Andrea has a sixth sense for knowing when a person is going to be a good renter. She is able to meet the potential renters, look at their application, call their employers and their landlords to see if they will be good renters for Rick and her.

Rick decided to quit investing in real estate around 2007, but Andrea continued. Andrea got great deals on six houses last year, and she was able to convince Rick to start investing again.

Business is completely different now. It is a much bigger challenge now to deal with owners and resale. Rick thinks this aspect of the business will become easier in the coming years.

Rick has been using his IRA to invest in mortgages since 2000. He began using his IRA to invest in houses since 2003.

Rick’s target rental property is less than half an acre. Properties with lots of land have a tendency to collect lots of junk. He prefers single story houses, and he is completely uninterested in rental properties with pools. Rick does not like investing in houses built before 1978, and he prefers the house’s square feet to be between 1,000 to 1,800.

In the High Desert, Rick typically gets 1 house for every 10 offers he makes. In areas near Fontana and Corona, Rick typically gets 1 house for every 50 offers. Rick does not make offers before he has seen the home and made repair estimates.

Rick likes Tony Alvarez’s business model, because Tony gets properties to cash flow. Rick does not like the buying, fixing, and selling business model right now, because it is very difficult to get to the finish line with a first time buyer, FHA loan, two appraisals and a review appraisal.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

176-TNG Radio – Rick Solis 5-29-10

Friday, May 28th, 2010

Rick Solis

Appraiser and Investor

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This week Bruce is joined by Rick Solis. Rick wears many hats. He is a real estate investor, he is the appraiser for all of The Norris Group’s California hard money loans, and he occasionally trains people to appraise in The Norris Group’s REO boot camps.

Rick started appraising because his mother was a loan processor when he was a teenager. He was also interested in investing, but he was overpaying for properties. He began appraising to become a better investor. When he first began his appraising career, the only thing you needed to be an appraiser was a clipboard and a tape measurer. However, Rick believes that appraisal qualities were better back then than now with all the education requirements. In the past, appraisers had to be approved by each bank you wanted to appraise for, and you had to submit six work samples to prove you were able to do the job. Once licensing came into play, the banks eased off of those restrictions.

Rick closed escrow on his first house 1 week after his 20th birthday. Rick became attracted to the real estate business because of infomercials from Dave Deldado and Robert Allen.

Rick enjoys working with hard money lenders, because they actually want to know what the property is worth and what is wrong with it. That is the complete opposite of an A-paper appraisal job. All people involved in the A-paper transaction, other than the investor, do not want to know that information, because that information can kill the deals. Information like termite problems cannot be disclosed on an appraisal.

The investor is typically a private person with money, but you can also have a hard money loan with a different kind of intent. Some lenders are pressured to provide lenders with a specific appraisal value. Rick has had this experience with lenders in the past. Those lenders put a lot of pressure on appraisers, but he does not receive that kind of pressure from The Norris Group’s loan processor. Craig, TNG’s loan processor, would rather skip a deal than skew appraisal values.

In May, HVCC was passed. This new rule requires appraisal management companies to check on all appraisals for accuracies. Unfortunately, appraisal management companies are taking 40 percent of the earnings from appraisals, which means they must work much harder to earn the same income. This has caused many of the veteran appraisers to leave the business. Rick knows an appraiser who has found a way to cope with HVCC and make his job more efficient. This appraiser only takes appraisals that are close to him, and he looks at the properties before he accepts it. If there is anything wrong with the property he is looking at, the appraiser will skip it.

People often think of the appraisal process as being easy, because now they can push a button on Zillow which gives an estimated home value. However, this is very inaccurate. It is very difficult to come up with an accurate appraisal. It is also difficult to make an appraisal which meets all the guidelines of the lender and the investor who the lender is selling to.

FHA significantly loosened their requirements in the early 2000s. FHA once had a 2-page checklist of everything you had to check for on a property. For example, if the crawl space under the house didn’t have 18 inches of clearance the house had to be fixed. If there was any chipped paint on the house it would need to be fixed. However, they will allow some things like dirty carpet. FHA will accept non-permitted home modifications just as long as there are no health hazards. However, many banks and underwriters will not accept that. If non-permitted additions add value to a house, then you are supposed to account for it in an appraisal. It is very difficult to find comparable houses for a house with non-permitted additions.

In the current market, if your house is in average condition, there is not much you can do on repairs which will add a significant amount of value to your house. However, if your house is in bad condition then you can get a decent return on the cost of repairs. Regardless of how much money you’ve spent rehabbing, appraisers will not adjust the price by any more than 10 percent.

Cost basis appraisals are no longer being used. No appraiser who spends half his day looking for land sales is going to come up with an accurate land value.

Bruce Norris brings up an example for when the cost based appraisal may be useful…

Bruce: “If you were making an offer on a custom home, and you wanted the lot value to be emerged from what a custom home would be once it is done, then that would be like a residual value. This could be used to prove to a lot owner that it was once worth x value, but once you subtract the costs and the appraisal then the lot will be worth x. ‘Is that a useful idea?’”

Rick: “Possibly.”

Rick has never done this kind of appraisal, but Bruce wants him to. If you can look at the comps and subtract the costs, then you will have the residual dirt value. Rick thinks that is so simple that you probably wouldn’t need an appraiser to do it.

Around 2006, people were concerned about buying homes with awkward floor plans. Currently, investors no longer seem to be concerned by this. This may be due to the fact that these types of homes represent the largest portion of the current “for sale” market. They are taking a price hit on those homes, but they are still able to make a profit.

Appraisers account for pool values using comps. For example, if an appraiser is looking at two homes that are very similar except for the fact that one has a pool and the other does not, then the pool value will be calculated by subtracting the value of the home without a pool from the value of the home with the pool. If the home without a pool has a value of $200,000, and the value of the home with a pool is $210,000, then the value of the pool is $10,000. The value of a pool can change dramatically depending on where you live. In some areas a pool adds little value to the home, but in other areas a pool can add a lot of value. Rick has noticed that pools typically add up to 0 to 5 percent of the house. Also, the value of a pool can change dramatically depending on what season you sell in. If you sell during a hot season, the pool will be more valuable.

The number of bedrooms within a house does not affect the price much. The square footage of a house is more important the number of rooms within it. Some families like two big bedrooms more than 3 small ones, and vice versa.

If you are appraising a property as an investor, avoid location problems. Stay away from atypical problems, especially problems that cannot be fixed. Old homes surrounded by new homes will not sell well, and dome home styles don’t sell well either.

Investors often make the mistake of assuming that an old remodeled home will sell for the same value as a new home in the same condition. Newer homes will always sell at a higher value.

Mello-roos homes can also be a detriment to home value. However, a lot of first time buyers do not always notice this difference.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 5/18/10

Tuesday, May 18th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

According to the U.S. Labor Department, construction firms added 14,000 jobs in April. MDA Dataquick reports sales of new and resale homes totaled 20,299 in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties last month. Data from the MBA shows that in the first quarter of 2010 commercial and multifamily mortgage loan originations were 12 percent higher than during the same period last year. The FHA will reduce allowable seller concessions from 6 percent to 3 percent.

In The News:

California Builder“Overall Construction Employment Picture Brightens” (5-18-10)

“Employment numbers in the construction industry continued to show signs of improvement in April, according to figures released earlier this month by the U.S. Labor Department. Construction firms added 14,000 jobs in April, giving the industry a gain of 40,000 jobs since February. Those positive numbers ended a string of nearly three years of employment decreases, thanks in part to jobs created by stimulus-created projects.”

DQNews - “Southern California home sales dip, median price rises from ’09″ (5-18-10)

“Sales of new and resale homes totaled 20,299 in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties last month. That was down 0.9 percent from 20,476 in March, and down 1.0 percent from 20,514 for April 2009, according to MDA DataQuick of San Diego.”

Mortgage Bankers AssociationMBA Study: First Quarter 2010 Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Originations Increase from Year Earlier, Though Levels Remain Low” (5-18-10)

First quarter 2010 commercial and multifamily mortgage loan originations were 12 percent higher than during the same period last year and 26 percent lower than during the fourth quarter of 2009, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Quarterly Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations.”

Los Angeles TimesEconomic recovery will be rapid, San Francisco Fed researchers say” (5-18-10)

“Defying some analysts’ predictions of a slow and subpar U.S. recovery, researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco are predicting a rapid economic rebound. Citing growth in both consumer and business spending, economists Justin Weidner and John C. Williams said recovery “is likely to be faster than from the two previous recessions” in a report released Monday.”

The Press Enterprise“Loan-modification dropouts rise” (5-18-10)

“The Treasury Department’s report Monday was the latest evidence of problems in the administration’s $75 billion program. While officials insist the program is helping the housing market turn around, critics say it is merely delaying an inevitable surge in foreclosures. More than 299,000 homeowners had received permanent loan modifications as of last month, Treasury said. That’s about 25 percent of the 1.2 million who started the program since its March 2009 launch. They are paying, on average, $516 less each month.”

Housing Wire“FHA Set to Reduce Closing Cost Assistance This Summer” (5-18-10)

“The FHA will reduce allowable seller concessions — the percentage sellers can take from the sales price of a home to fund closing costs — from 6% to 3%. According to an announcement in January, the current level of 6% exposes the FHA to excess risk by creating incentives for appraisers to increase the value of these homes. The change will take place in ‘early summer,’ according to the FHA, but a spokesperson said no specific date has been set.”

Housing Wire“Ocwen, HomeEq Hold Highest HAMP Conversion Percentage in April” (5-18-10)

“The Treasury Department launched HAMP in March 2009 to provide incentives to servicers for the modification of loans on the verge of foreclosure. Through April 2010, the servicers have provided nearly 300,000 permanent modifications and started 1.2m three-month trials. Borrowers must make three monthly payments during the trial period before receiving the permanent modification. Servicers give a median price reduction of 36%, saving more than $500 a month.”

Housing Wire“Housing Starts Up, But Permits Drop in Signal of Future Housing Decline” (5-18-10)

“According to the joint release, privately owned housing starts in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 672,000. That’s up from the upwardly revised March estimate of 635,000 and is 40.9% above the revised April 2009 rate of 477,000. Housing starts for the single-family sector were at a rate of 593,000 in April, up 10.2% above the upwardly revised March estimate of 538,000. The April rate for buildings with five or more units was 68,000, down 23.6% from March’s upwardly revised estimate of 89,000.”

Housing Wire“Canceled HAMP Trials Jump 80% in April” (5-18-10)

“As of the end of April 2010, servicers participating in the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) had canceled 277,640 three-month trials since the program launched in March 2009, according to the Treasury Department. It’s an 80% increase from the 155,173 total in the previous month. Participating servicers have converted almost 300,000 trial modifications into permanent status since the Treasury launched HAMP in March 2009. Borrowers must make three monthly payments and submit all documentation during the trial period to receive a permanent modification.”

Bloomberg - “Feldstein Says Falling Permits May Signal U.S. Housing Slump” (5-18-10)

“A decline in U.S. homebuilding permits last month may indicate a renewed housing slump as demand weakens after the expiration of tax credits, Harvard University economics professor Martin Feldstein said.”

Inman - “Top 25 largest brokerages in the U.S.” (5-18-10)

“Online brokerage ZipRealty completed 34.6 percent more transaction sides in 2009 than in 2008, bumping it up to the fifth-largest brokerage ranked by real estate publishing and communications company Real Trends. ZipRealty had previously ranked ninth in transaction sides.”

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 2/2/10

Tuesday, February 2nd, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

The NAR’s index  shows that pending home sales increased by 1 percent in December. According to the MBA, commercial and multifamily mortgage loan originations increased by 15 percent during the 4th quarter of 2009.  The FHA reports that borrower delinquencies increased by 6.5 percent from the previous year. Fannie Mae is offering a 3.5 percent discount to all people who buy REO properties.

In The News:

NAR - “Pending Home Sales Stabilize, Remain Above Year-Ago Levels” (2-2-10)

“The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in December, increased 1.0 percent to 96.6 from 95.6 in November, and remains 10.9 percent above December 2008 when it was 87.1. In November, the monthly index had fallen by 16.4 percent from surging activity in preceding months.”

Mortgage Bankers Association“MBA Study: Originations of Commercial and Multifamily Mortgages Increased in Fourth Quarter 2009″ (2-2-10)

“Fourth quarter 2009 commercial and multifamily mortgage loan originations were 12 percent higher than during the same period last year and 15 percent higher than during the third quarter of 2009, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Quarterly Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations.”

Washington Post“Rising FHA default rate foreshadows a crush of foreclosures” (2-2-10)

“About 9.1 percent of FHA borrowers had missed at least three payments as of December, up from 6.5 percent a year ago, the agency’s figures show.”

Housing Wire“First American Offers Appraiser Reviews of BPOs” (2-2-10)

“First American Valuation and Property Solutions – the Dallas-based subsidiary of the First American Corporation (FAF: 30.68 +1.86%) – added appraiser reviews of broker price opinion (BPO) reports to its new property valuation offering. The move to add appraiser reviews allows firms without on-staff appraisers to outsource BPO verification operations – a trend sources say is catching on.”

Housing Wire“HUD 2011 Budget Drops to $41.6bn on Higher FHA Premiums” (2-2-10)

“The US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) budget proposal for 2011 dipped 5% below the budget in 2010 to $41.6bn after raising annual Federal Housing Administration (FHA) insurance premiums by 50 bps to 2.25% earlier this month.”

Housing Wire“CMBS Performance Slides Again: Trepp” (2-2-10)

“The rate of 30-plus-day delinquency in commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS)reached a new record high of 6.49% in January, according to commercial real estate data provider Trepp.”

Housing Wire - “Fannie Gives 3.5% REO Discount” (2-2-10)

“Fannie Mae (FNM: 1.02 -0.97%) will provide a 3.5% discount to those purchasing a real-estate owned (REO) property listed as part of its HomePath division, according to a company notice.”

Bloomberg - “D.R. Horton Climbs Most in 10 Months on Profit Gain” (2-2-10)

“D.R. Horton Inc., the second-largest U.S. homebuilder by revenue, climbed the most in 10 months after the company reported its first quarterly profit since 2007 on sales and profit margins that exceeded analysts’ estimates.”

Bloomberg - “U.S. Vacancy Rate Increases as Banks Seize More Homes” (2-2-10)

“The homeowner vacancy rate increased to 2.7 percent from 2.6 percent in the third quarter, the U.S. Census Bureau said in a report today. There were 2.09 million empty properties on the market, up from 1.99 million, according to the report.”

Inman - “First-timers are fastest-growing segment” (2-2-10)

“First-time homebuyers not only account for the largest share of home sales in many markets, but represent the fastest-growing segment of home sales in nearly half of those markets, brokers surveyed by Inman News report. Second homes and move-up homes, on the other hand, are the most rapidly shrinking segment of their business, brokers responding to the survey said.”

Looking Back:

One year ago,  a $5 billion increase in mortgage debt investment by foreign banks was noted by Morgan Stanley. San Francisco analysts predicted that condominium prices in the SF area would significantly decrease. Obama exclaimed that he would require banks receiving bailout money to increase lending to borrowers.

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 1/8/10

Friday, January 8th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

Economists are criticizing Gov. Schwarzenegger’s $10,000 homebuyer tax credt and claiming it to be a waste of money. According to Amherst Securities Group, default and prepayment rates on mortgage-backed-securities remained consistent from October through November. Colony Capital Acquisitions bought 1,200 commercial mortgages from the FDIC. Multiple appraisal institutions filed complaints to the Department of the Interior regarding the absence of a qualified Chief Appraiser.

In The News:

Sacramento Bee“Home Front: Some economists not buying proposed homebuyer tax credit” (1-8-10)

“Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s proposed new $10,000 homebuyer tax credit is thrilling the real estate universe, but don’t think it’s a done deal. Opponents, who include economists and advocacy groups, are weighing in. Their point: it’s a poor use of money in a state that’s whacking community college budgets and health programs for poor kids”

Washington Post“FDIC considers plan to penalize banks whose pay practices encourage risky moves” (1-8-10)

“The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. is considering financial penalties for banks whose pay practices encourage reckless behavior, potentially opening a new front in the federal government’s effort to reshape the way bankers are paid, according to people familiar with the matter. Officials at the FDIC and other federal agencies are concerned that some banks reward executives for increasing revenues and profits in the short term even if those executives also are increasing the company’s risk of losses in the long term.”

Housing Wire“Settling the Chinese Drywall Fight” (1-8-10)

“Homeowners and builders are facing difficulties seeking recourse from manufacturers of a toxic drywall that’s been alleged to emit sulfur fumes, causing damage to heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) components and health problems ranging from watery eyes to respiratory issues. The problem? It’s difficult for plaintiffs to serve foreign manufacturers in US courts. In this case, the problem with the manufacturers of Chinese drywall is exactly what you’d expect: the manufacturers are in China.”

Housing Wire“Redefault Rates ‘Tragic’, Says Amherst” (1-8-10)

“According to Amherst Securities Group, default and prepayment rates on non-agency, private-label mortgage-backed securities (MBS) were constant in November. However, re-performance rates, where payments return to less than two months delinquent, were down and re-default rates ‘tragic’ in November, according to market commentary provided by the firm.”

Housing Wire“Carlton Selling $307M Distressed Asset Portfolio” (1-8-10)

“Carlton Advisory Services is selling a portfolio of non-performing loans and real estate owned (REO) assets worth a combined $307m. The portfolio includes office, industrial, retail, multi-family, assisted-living facility, and self-storage assets located across 24 states. The New York-based firm said its services were retained by the commercial mortgage-backed securitization (CMBS) trusts that currently hold the assets.”

Housing Wire“FDIC Sells Equity Stake in $1bn Portfolio of Distressed CRE Loans” (1-8-10)

“Colony Capital Acquisitions won the bidding process on a sale of equity interest in 1,200 commercial mortgages the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) seized from depository institutions that failed within the past 18 months. FDIC created a limited liability company, called a multibank structured transaction, to hold commercial real estate assets from 22 failed bank receiverships. As winner of the bidding process, Los Angeles-based Colony Capital purchases a 40% ownership interest in the company.”

Housing Wire“Call for Chief Appraiser Gains Momentum” (1-8-10)

“A handful of appraiser organizations joined together Thursday to send a letter to the US Department of the Interior, urging the hire of a chief appraiser. The groups – the Appraisal Institute, the American Society of Appraisers, the American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers and the National Association of Independent Fee Appraisers – noted a December report (download here) from the Interior Department’s Inspector General directs the filling of such a position, which has not been filled by qualified executive in almost three years.”

Housing Wire“Fed’s MBS Purchases Slow and Spreads Hold, For Now” (1-8-10)

“The Federal Reserve Bank of New York bought $12bn of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) from mortgage giants Freddie Mac (FRE: 1.45 -3.33%), Fannie Mae (FNM: 1.15 -2.54%) and Ginnie Mae in the week ending January 8.”

Bloomberg - “Fed Won’t Raise Until After Jobless Rate Peaks, Crescenzi Says” (1-8-10)

“The Federal Reserve won’t raise its target rate for overnight loans between banks until many months after unemployment peaks, according to Pacific Investment Management Co.’s Tony Crescenzi.”

Bloomberg - “U.S. Office Vacancies Climb to 15-Year High on Employment Cuts” (1-8-10)

“Office vacancies in the U.S. surged to a 15-year high in the fourth quarter and rents fell the most on record as the deepest recession in more than half a century slashed demand for commercial space, according to Reis Inc. The vacancy rate climbed to 17 percent from 14.5 percent a year earlier, the New York-based research company said. Effective rents, the amount tenants actually pay landlords, dropped 8.9 percent, the biggest year-over-year decline since Reis began tracking the data in 1980.”

Inman - “Economy: Bad is the new good” (1-8-10)

“A renewed, two-group consensus drove the jump: The economy is in a solid recovery, or even if it isn’t, immense Treasury borrowing will force rates higher. Both groups agree that the Fed should stop its assistance, either because the economy no longer needs it, or because even if the economy does need help, to continue assistance would produce inflation. I think this consensus is mistaken. There is no meaningful recovery under way, and the Fed has already pulled up short. More data like today’s will add to policymaking tension, force the administration’s hand, and soon have the Fed back to buying mortgages, Treasurys or both.”

Inman - “Confidence slips among agents, brokers” (1-8-10)

“Confidence among real estate agents and brokers dipped in December after a heady rise in November, according to a monthly survey conducted by real estate tech company Point2 Technologies.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac decided to halt all foreclosure sales and evictions until January 9, 2009.  A panel of economists predicted that home sales would not increase, despite the Federal Reserve’s attempts to lower interest rates.  Consumer borrower dropped by $7.8 billion last November.

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 12/02/09

Wednesday, December 2nd, 2009

Today’s News Synopsis:

The MBA’s weekly survey shows that mortgage applications increased by 2.1 percent from the previous week. Trepp reports that overall delinquency rates for commercial mortgage-backed securities increased to 5.65 percent. According to ADP Employer Services, 169,000 jobs were cut last month.

In The News:

Mortgage Bankers Association“Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey” (12-2-09)

“The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 27, 2009, which was a shortened week due to the Thanksgiving holiday.  The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 2.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.  On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 29.3 percent compared with the previous week.”

Housing Wire“Hotel Default Raises CMBS Delinquency, Trepp Says” (12-2-09)

“The overall delinquency rate among commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) rose 85 bps to 5.65% in November, from 4.8% a month earlier, according to a monthly report by CMBS and commercial mortgage information provider Trepp.”

Housing Wire“FHA is ‘Not the Next Subprime’: HUD’s Donovan” (12-2-09)

“The capital reserve ratio at the FHA, which ensures approved lenders against default-related losses, recently plunged below the congressionally-mandated 2% minimum. HUD aims to strengthen the capital position at FHA by enforcing standards and cutting down on lenders that violate FHA’s standards, most recently this week with the withdrawal of Lend America’s FHA approval.”

Bloomberg“General Growth Wins Interim Approval of Debt Plan” (12-2-09)

“General Growth Properties Inc., the second-largest U.S. mall owner, won preliminary court approval of the outline of its plan to restructure $9.7 billion of mortgage debt owed on 92 shopping centers and office buildings.”

Bloomberg“ADP Says U.S. Companies Cut Estimated 169,000 Jobs” (12-2-09)

“An estimated 169,000 jobs were eliminated last month, the fewest since July 2008, according to data from Roseland, New Jersey-based ADP Employer Services today. The figures were forecast to show a decline of 150,000 jobs, according to the median estimate of 32 economists in a Bloomberg survey.”

Orange County Register“Appraisers see O.C. home prices off 15%” (12-2-09)

“Orange County values (from reviews of 39 homes) are falling at a 15% annual rate. That’s up slightly from the 14% rate of loss in year ended in April! The appraisers put losses in northern O.C. at a 20.9% annual rate; off in central O.C. at a 17.7% annual rate; and southern/beach falling at a 9% annual rate.”

Inman“Corcoran promoting new iPhone app” (12-2-09)

“Corcoran’s iPhone app can use the smart phone’s Global Positioning System (GPS) satellite capabilities to display apartments, condos and open houses near the user’s location. It also allows for customized searches, displaying full screen photos of properties listed for sale or rent with Corcoran. Users can choose to be notified of new listings and open houses, and the app will also deliver information about local restaurants, nightlife and shopping.”

Realty Times“Realtor Organization Opposed FHA Anti-Flipping Rule” (12-2-09)

“proponents of the CAR motion argued that, in the current environment, the effect of the anti-flipping rule was actually to harm potential FHA buyers and to shut them out of the real estate market.”

Looking back:

One year ago, some economists expected to see a bottom in housing prices after the 2nd quarter of 2009, while others claimed that prices would not bottom until 2011 or 2012. Radar Logic reported that Sacramento had the biggest home price decline of all the major cities the company analizes. TransUnion found that 3rd quarter delinquencies increased the most in San Francisco and Los Angeles.

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 10/20/09

Tuesday, October 20th, 2009

Today’s News Synopsis:

RealtyTrac’s Rick Sharga believes that approximately 450,000 to 500,000 repossessed properties have not yet been placed on the market. Default notices in California have decreased by 10.3 percent from the previous quarter and have increased by 18.5 percent from last year. The Commerce Department reports that housing and apartment construction increased by .5 percent from last month.

In The News:

RealtyTrac“The Case of the Missing REO Inventory” (10-20-09)

“With foreclosure activity breaking records nearly every month, where are all the REOs? It’s a fair question. In normal market situations, a bank will repossess a home and usually process it through to a listing agent to put on the MLS within 30 days. In a relatively short period of time, virtually every marketable REO property finds itself listed for sale on the local MLS. Today, that’s simply not the case; it’s likely that between 450,000 and 500,000 properties repossessed over the past year are still not on the market. And with buyers hungry for housing bargains, and agents and brokers champing at the bit ready to sell the properties, it begs for a reasonable answer.”

Broker Universe“FHA Changes May Make HVCC and AMCs Easier to Swallow” (10-20-09)

“However, Mr. Stern believes appraisal management companies are hiring appraisers based on price – appraisers who have little knowledge of local market conditions. ‘I don’t think it’s fair that AMCs are hiring the cheapest appraisers,’ he said. Lenders One, the National Association of Realtors and appraiser groups are hoping new appraisal policies recently adopted by the Federal Housing Administration will correct some of the problems associated with HVCC and AMCs.”

DQNews - “California Mortgage Defaults Trend Down Again” (10-20-09)

“A total of 111,689 default notices were sent out during the July-through-September period. That was down 10.3 percent from 124,562 for the prior quarter, and up 18.5 percent from 94,240 in third quarter 2008, according to San Diego-based MDA DataQuick”

Cleveland - “Feds to probe ‘walkaways’ by some mortgage lenders” (10-20-09)

” Federal investigators will scrutinize the practice of lenders or mortgage companies walking away from homes they have foreclosed on. The U.S. Government Accountability Office plans to delve into these so-called bank walkaways – something some consider an alarming trend in the foreclosure crisis”

Wall Street Journal“Home-Buyer Credit Is Focus of Inquiry” (10-20-09)

“The Internal Revenue Service is examining more than 100,000 suspicious claims for the first-time home-buyer tax break, another sign of potential trouble for the soon-to-expire program. The measure, adopted in February as part of the economic-stimulus bill, gives first-time buyers an $8,000 tax credit in an effort to boost sales and stimulate the moribund housing market. The program is set to end Nov. 30, but housing-industry leaders are lobbying Congress to extend it.”

Washington Post“Small firms, home buyers to get a boost” (10-20-09)

“Under the program, the Treasury, along with mortgage financiers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, will buy the bonds used by housing finance agencies to fund mortgages, which can carry an interest rate that is a percentage point lower than loans made by private lenders. Called HFAs, these agencies have been strapped during the financial crisis because investors have been unwilling to buy their debt. The federal government is now attempting to play the role of the investors.”

Los Angeles Times“Fewer home-building permits signal weakness ahead” (10-20-09)

“At the same time, the Commerce Department said Tuesday that construction of new homes and apartments rose 0.5 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 590,000 units. That was a weaker showing than the 610,000 economists had expected.”

NAR - “Housing Tax Credit Working, So Keep Momentum Going, NAR Urges Congress” (10-20-09)

“‘The data on the present home buyer tax credit show that the credit has had its intended impact—sales have jumped in recent months to a projected 5.1 million for the year and housing inventory has been trimmed, thus stabilizing home prices noticeably,’ Phipps said. He also pointed out that each home sale generates approximately $63,000 in additional economic activity, providing a tremendous economic boost to the national economy”

Mortgage Bankers Association“MBA Testifies on State of Housing Market” (10-20-09)

“Whenever I am asked when the housing market will recover, I explain that the economy and the housing market are inextricably linked. The number of people receiving paychecks will drive the demand for houses and apartments and the recovery will begin when unemployment stops rising. Since September 2008, we have lost 5.8 million jobs in the US, more than five times the number the previous year.”

Housing Wire“Fitch Projects More RMBS Re-Defaults as HAMP Disappoints” (10-20-09)

“Servicers of residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) continue to increase loss mitigation resolutions, including a significant push in the number of loan modifications, according to a report from Fitch Ratings. As of September 2009, roughly 10% of all RMBS loans and 25% of all subprime loans received at least one modification. A year ago, servicers modified only 3% of all loans, and 7% of subprime loans, according to the report.”

Housing Wire“Servicers Prefer Foreclosure, Says NCLC” (10-20-09)

“Mortgage servicers have found it cheaper to foreclose on homeowners than offer loan modifications, according to a new report from the National Consumer Law Center. The report points out servicers in charge of modifying distressed loans are separate from the lenders, who have packaged the loans and sold them in pieces or pools to other banks and investors.”

Housing Wire“HUD Notes Alleged FHA Violations at Lend America” (10-20-09)

“The 12 alleged violations the HUD board said Ideal Mortgage Bankers made against FHA range from submitting false certifications and failing to document the borrower’s income and creditworthiness, to approving loans that did not meet the FHA’s minimum credit requirements and closing a loan with an excessive mortgage broker fee paid to an approved FHA loan correspondent.”

Orange County Register“Investors grab bigger share of auctioned foreclosures” (10-20-09)

“Investors bought 278, or 39%, of the 718 houses and condos sold at auctions, known as trustee’s sales, in Orange County last month, reports ForeclosureRadar.com.”

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 10/14/09

Wednesday, October 14th, 2009

Today’s News Synopsis:

Citigroup and other banks are being accountable for fraudulent loans which will cost them more than $688 million. The Mortgage Bankers Association reports that mortgage loan application volume has decreased by 1.8 percent from last week.  JP Morgan Chase has approved of trial modifications for 90 percent of its borrowers.

In The News:

DSNews“Feds to Offer Easier Aid, Incentives for Modifications and Short Sales” (10-13-09)

“concerns have grown over whether HAMP reaches enough borrowers to make a difference in the wider housing-based economy. The MBA in particular, as well as the servicers’ advocacy group HOPE NOW, has argued that too many homeowners are – or ought to be – ineligible for HAMP modifications, and so far the government has done very little to assist that population.”

Bloomberg“Citigroup Loans Ruled Fraudulent; Tousa Bonds Surge” (10-14-09)

“Citigroup Inc. and other lenders made fraudulent transfers when they gave Tousa Inc. secured loans six months before its bankruptcy filing, a judge ruled in a decision that may cost the banks more than $688 million. Tousa notes more than tripled.”

Housing Wire“California Laws Get Tough on Mortgage Finance” (10-14-09)

“Senate Bill (SB) 36 regulates the licensing requirements for residential loan originators in compliance with the federal Secure and Fair Enforcement for Mortgage Licensing (SAFE) Act. SB 237 requires appraisal management companies (AMCs) and appraisers register with the Office of Real Estate Appraisers and subjects appraisers to the provisions of the Real Estate Appraisers’ Licensing and Certification Law.”

Housing Wire“JP Morgan Beats the Street, Earns $3.6bn” (10-14-09)

“JP Morgan Chase approved 262,000 new trial modifications between the Making Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) and its own modification program, resulting in lowered payments for 90% of borrowers with modified mortgages. In the bank’s retail financial services (RFS) division, net income was $7m, down from $57m in Q208 and $15m from Q209, due to a decrease in mortgage origination revenue, an increase in the provision for credit losses, higher non interest expense and lower loan balances, JP Morgan said.”

Housing Wire“First American CoreLogic Creates National Fraud Database” (10-14-09)

“The National Fraud Database includes application and transaction data of more than 80m loan applications, representing 65% of all loan annual applications, aggregate fraud reports from 35 lenders and investors, with performance data history dating back to 2005.”

Mortgage Bankers Association“MBA Releases Model Whole Loan Sale and Servicing Agreement” (10-14-09)

“The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today adopted a model sale and servicing agreement it anticipates will become the standard form for industry participants to use voluntarily for whole loan purchases and sales made with an eye toward potential securitization. The Agreement was adopted yesterday by MBA’s Residential Board of Governors (RESBOG) as an MBA supported best practice.”

Mortgage Bankers Association“Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey” (10-14-09)

“The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 9, 2009. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1.7 percent compared with the previous week.”

CNN“Push on to expand $8,000 tax credit” (10-14-09)

“Congress is considering proposals to greatly expand a soon-to-expire $8,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers — potentially applying it to all but the wealthiest homebuyers. Supporters say doing so would further boost home sales, stabilize housing prices and generate jobs. Opponents say extending and expanding the credit would be a waste of money and only temporarily stave off further price declines”

Bloomberg“Bank of America to Target More Mortgage Share, Desoer Says” (10-14-09)

“Bank of America Corp., seeking to avoid a plunge in mortgage-lending profits in coming years as the business shrinks, will strive to expand its more than 20 percent market share, the head of the company’s home-loan unit said.”

Bloomberg“GMAC’s Ally Bank Builds Deposits by Needling Rivals” (10-14-09)

“GMAC Inc., the lender that received two U.S. bailouts, has attracted $2.9 billion of new deposits and riled its rivals by offering the highest interest rates and running advertisements that portray bankers as deceptive.”

137-TNG Radio – Joseph Magdziarz 8-29-09

Friday, August 28th, 2009

Joseph_Magdziarz

Joseph Magdziarz

2009 Vice President, The Appraisal Institute

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This week Bruce is joined by Joseph Magdziarz. He is the current Vice President of the Appraisal Institute and he will become the President Elect in 2010 and President in 2011. He has been associated with the Appraisal Institute for 38 years.

Bruce begins by asking if Joseph if he considers business nowadays to be usual or unusual. Joseph has seen similar conditions in the late 80s and early 90s, but for many people, this is a new experience.

Bruce asks Joseph to explain what is similar about our current market and the market of the late 80s. The declining prices of real estate but the cause of these declines is significantly different.

Something radically changed a few months ago in the appraisal business. The Home Valuation Code of Conduct (HVCC) agreement between the Attorney General Cuomo and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac caused this change. A few years before the HVCC came out, Joseph was lobbying with Congress about the pressure being put on appraisers to make inflated home appraisals. People were happy with many appraisers, because they received high appraisals, but this problem put ethical appraisers out of business, because they would not cooperate with people who wanted their home values inflated. Some of the new people coming into the business may have given into the pressure to make bad appraisals because they did not have the established relationships with lenders that some of the well known appraisers had.

The goal number for an appraiser is market value. Bruce asks if that is still the goal that appraisers are shooting for. Joseph says that is what appraisers are trying to estimate but some of the values coming out are closer to distressed asset value rather than market value.

Bruce asks if something has changed in the appraising process or if the changes are coming in after the appraiser states a market value and someone attempts to correct them. The definition of market value has not changed since 1989. The methodology has not changed either. Joseph thinks that many appraisers have not experienced a distressed market such as the market we are currently in. The HVCC, and the lenders’ choice to move much of their business to appraisal management companies, have caused a lot of problems.

This is one of the first markets we have had in 10 years in which we have declining prices. It is legitimate to have a 90 day old comp that is worth less today than it was when you first got it. Bruce asks if the big problem is that we do not have enough fully repaired homes as comps in comparison to vacant REOs. Jospeh says it’s very localized. Joseph says this is a big problem in some parts of the country, but the real problem occurs when all the occurring sales are foreclosures and short sales.

The definition of market value is the meeting of the minds between a buyer and a seller, each equally motivated and knowledgeable, and without undue pressure. If you have a bank with many foreclosures, they are more motivated than a typical seller would be. They will often dispose of those assets at a lower price which makes none of those properties a valid comp. The motivation of the buyer and seller is important when evaluating market value.

TNG’s business is buying and fixing properties that need work. TNG typically puts $35,000 dollars into a repair job, and they typically end up with a property that is worth about $140,000. It is very hard to get $35 grand worth of credit. There seems to be a rule which only allows a ten percent credit limit for the kind of properties that TNG deals with. Bruce asks Joseph to explain this issue. Joseph explains that this issue relates back to a Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac guideline that says when you have an adjustment greater than 10 percent, you need to explain it. As the percent of adjustment increases, the sale becomes less comparable. There is no ten percent requirement. This is just a guideline, but unfortunately, some of the underwriters believe it to be a rule.

Bruce has had trouble with this guideline. For example, Bruce had 6 offers on a property being sold at 122,000, but then the appraisal came at 102,000, and then the review appraisal came in at 85,000. That is far from what 6 buyers thought the market value was. In the end, Bruce did not sell this property and he kept it as a rental home. If an appraiser is not able to honor the market decision of a buyer, then the market price in some areas will go down further for no good reason. Part of this problem goes back to the HVCC stating that there needs to be a firewall between people originating a loan and people doing appraisals. At this time, that firewall is the appraisal management company. One of the main complaints that Joseph is getting is that many appraisals are being done by appraisers who are not experienced enough in their geographic region.

Bruce asks how appraisers are assigned properties to appraise. Some companies broadcast assignments to everyone on their approved list, so the first person to sign up for the job gets it. The problem with the AMC is that they are not giving these jobs to experienced appraisers. The AMC is focused on getting these jobs done quickly rather than effectively. Better appraisers are missing out on jobs because they cost more. They are hiring people with not enough experience.

The Appraiser’s Institute company has 26,000 members. Each one of these members receives notifications saying that they need to have the proper experience necessary to get jobs done properly, otherwise the Appraisers Institute will take aggressive enforcement against any member who accepts a job that they are not qualified for. These members are also given information on how to turn in unqualified appraisers.

In July, the current president of the Appraisal Institute met with Congress to discuss this issue. He also reminded them a few years before that these problems were occurring, and they failed to act on those problems back then. These problems do not look like they will be dealt with until some time next year. A few bill are pending but nothing will be done until next year.

Bruce asks if the Appraisal Management Companies has to be run by someone with an appraisal background. This is a problem that the Appraisal Institute has been lobbying for as well. There are appraisers who have had their licenses revoked that are now supervising other appraisers. Joseph thinks it would be better if appraisers were required to be licensed within their state.

Bruce asks if communication is allowed between agents and appraisers who are working for Fannie or Freddie. Joseph says this is not forbidden. The loan officer is not allowed to communicate with the appraiser, but Realtors and management companies can communicate with appraisers. Appraisers have an obligation to verify information given to them about a sale. This is a misunderstood rule that Bruce has had difficulty with. Bruce has called appraisers who told him that he was not allowed to talk to them.

Bruce asks Joseph about what the fee was for an appraiser before HVCC and what that fee is now. This is one of the five biggest problems that the Appraisals Institute currently has. Not all appraisal management companies are the same. In Chicago, GAMCO uses Appraisal Institute members, and they give designated members 90 percent of the fee, and they give non designated members 80 percent of the fee. What Joseph has heard nowadays is that management companies are starting to take 50 to 60 percent of the fees. When that happens, the better appraisers refuse to work for those companies. That leaves the new appraisers with the ability to get into the business, and they may not be qualified. Joseph fears that these rules may cause some very knowledgeable people leaving the business. Another problem with management companies is that they require a 24 to 48 hour turn around time. This does not allow appraisers to get to know the market value of a specific market.

We now have the ability to use automated appraisals (AVM), but these automated appraisals are trumping appraisals made by actual appraisers. These automated appraisals are done on a statistical basis. The problem with these reports is that they do not use comparable sales. These automated appraisals essentially come up with a median value rather than a market value. These mechanical appraisers are not capable of looking next door to a certain property in order to obtain a better understanding of the value of the home being examined.

Joseph is can be seen September 11th at our I Survived Real Estate 2009 event.

Joseph C. Magdziarz, MAI, SRA is the 2009 vice president of the Appraisal Institute. He will become the president elect in 2010 and president of the Appraisal Institute in 2011.

Magdziarz has been an active member of the Appraisal Institute for 38 years. He has served in a variety of capacities at all levels of the organization.

At the regional level, Magdziarz has served two terms as Regional Vice Chair and two terms as Region III Chair. He has also been a regional representative for many years. On the national level, Magdziarz served two terms on the Appraisal Institute’s National Board of Directors. He has served as Chair of the Education Committee for five years and has also chaired the National Audit Committee, Instructor and Faculty Committees, and Education and Publications Committees. In addition, he has served on a number of project teams. Presently, he is serving on the ADAPT (MAI demonstration report alternative) project team and the International Education and Designation project team.

Magdziarz has been President of Appraisal Research, Inc. in Rockford, Illinois for 38 years. He resides in Rockford, Illinois with his wife Sandra of 41 years and his bulldog Bella.

Magdziarz is an approved Appraisal Institute instructor for 26 courses in the Appraisal Institute’s QE, AE, CE, and USPAP curriculums. He has also had international assignments in Naples, Italy; Istanbul, Turkey; Seoul, South Korea; and Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai, China.

125-TNG Radio – Shelley Kaye 6-6-09

Friday, June 5th, 2009

Shelley-Kaye

Shelley Kaye

2009 President, REOMac

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This week Bruce is joined once again by Shelley Kaye, the president of REOMAC. She also works with InSource Financial Services where she handles bulk sale purchases.

Bruce first asks Shelley if lenders generally fix the properties when they sell them. Shelley says that it depends on the market and the lender but usually fixes her properties. She does not want to bring the prices of a neighborhood down; she wants to enhance a neighborhood. She knows a large number of other agents who work with lenders to fix properties and they make a lot of profit that way. When you support the value of a neighborhood, you also enable some people to get a refi instead of losing a property. Everybody wins when people fix properties.

Bruce asks Shelley how REO agents feel about auction companies. For the most part, the auction companies and agents are working in a partnership, and in many cases, the agents are still earning a commission. In the past, if a property went to an auctioneer then an agent would not be paid. The agents do open houses for auction companies, and they bring in buyers. In the 1990s, the agents didn’t make a commission so this time is much better. The auction company couldn’t function as successfully if it weren’t for the agents who are also bringing the buyers.

Bruce asks Shelley how REO agents feel about investors. Most good REO agents have a pool of investors that they work with. The problem that agents have is determining who is an investor and who is not. Real investors are easier to work with because they understand the market place, and they are not unrealistic about property values. Agents like working with investors because they know what they want and they understand how lenders do business. Most investors will close quickly. One of the dilemmas that agents have with wannabe investors is that they do not check up on their properties, they do not understand what it takes to buy an REO from a lender, and they do not understand what they are planning to do with a property. Investors must need to know what they are doing and they must do their homework.

In today’s market, an investor needs to be able to look at a property and quickly determine the repair cost and the appraisal to be competitive, because many properties have multiple offers. They must understand so many facets of the business from how much prices are declining to how much the house will rent for.

Bruce asks Shelley if she thinks that short sales will be more attractive to the lenders now than they were in the past. Shelley thinks that they will be more attracted to short sales, because there is a lot of cost in processing a foreclosure. The biggest problem she sees with this is that loss mitigators are not experienced enough to understand what is occurring in the market place. Time is their biggest enemy.

Bruce asks if loss mitgators, asset managers, and ever really talk before something goes to trustee sale. When Shelley worked at Option 1, she would talk to the loss mitigation department. They had formulas to determine how much they would lose in specific deals. Unfortunately, many of the people who work with loss mitigation do not understand the market.

Bruce says The Norris Group has noticed a big change in opening bids at the trustee sales. They are making more sense. Bruce asks if people often communicate with REO agents, prior to trustee sales, to determine accurate prices before the trustee sale. Shelley says that lenders are always getting a broker price opinion. The biggest problem is that they do not get to see the property, so sometimes people give high bids. Lenders always consult with agents and get a BPO (broker price opinion) of some sort.

Lenders pay around $45 to $50 for a drive by broker price opinion and $75 to $100 for an interior BPO. When agents do drive by BPOs they are determining the price by just looking at the outside of the house, so they do not know what damage there might be inside. Bruce says the paperwork is very much similar to that of an appraiser’s.

Bruce asks Shelley if she has people in her company that are being affected by the new appraisal rules and the Home Valuation Code of Conduct. Shelley says that she does not know if agents are being severely affected by this new rule, but she does know that the closings are taking longer. They are also getting paid half as much for the appraisals when dealing with the new management companies. Shelley is glad that steps are being taken to prevent fraud but she thinks that these new rules are hurting appraisers. It’s important to have arms lengths transactions but the Realtors can sometimes point out subtleties in the market that appraisers wouldn’t get to on their own. Agents can actually help arrive at the proper price. Bruce feels that same about the appraisal issues and how they are affecting investors in the market. Bruce feels that these new rules are unfair because they assume that people who make deals quickly are looking for trouble. In reality, over 90 percent of the people who do their business quickly are doing so simply because they are trying to be efficient and helpful. Shelley agrees with Bruce’s feelings on this.

Bruce saw a chart that showed that 35 percent of Option ARM borrowers are behind in payments, 72 percent of Option ARM owners owe more than their house is worth, and California has 58 percent of all those loans. Shelley says it is astonishing and there are also statistics say that those in loan modification plans often go back into default. Our government really hasn’t considered the whole picture. Bruce feels that there are many homeowners that are making their payment because that’s what they signed up for. But it will be important for prices to be supported within a reasonable amount of time and we won’t be saving everyone. We have had a 70 percent home ownership percentage, but historically that percentage has been around 62 percent. Bruce thinks that the home ownership percentage will go down to 62 percent which will leave a lot of vacant homes. Shelley thinks that we need to turn these empty homes into affordable rental units. If investors are buying these properties then they need to be careful not to raise rent. Bruce says that the market usually controls rental prices. If there are enough rentals then the price will come down, and that is occurring in some areas in California.

Bruce asks Shelley what she thinks about shadow inventory. Shelley says that there is a lot of unlisted inventory out there. A lot of lenders have been told by their management that the burst of the bubble is coming within the next 60 days. She doesn’t know if they have been holding that much of the inventory or if the moratorium has caused the problem. The next 60 days she says she is hearing it’s going to explode.

Bruce says in San Bernardino County, there were 40,000 trustee sales in 2008, and there were about 22,000 sales. Bruce asks if other states are looking at California’s situation and wondering why Californians are so worried. Shelley says that there are some states that have been hit less than others, but for the most part, everyone is feeling the same pain. Bruce asks if California is going to experience more trouble within the next 18 months, and if higher priced inventory will be affected. Shelley says that is true and that some of the higher priced inventory is going into the foreclosure market, and more prime inventory is going into default.

Bruce says he hears advertisements for attorneys every day for loan fraud and workouts. Bruce asks Shelley if lenders are having trouble with people looking for loopholes. She does not know if there are many attorneys looking for loopholes, but there are attorneys looking to stop specific attorneys from doing this.

Bruce asks Shelley if she was president for a year, what national policies she would implement to help housing recover. She would focus on creating jobs so that people can pay for their homes. She thinks that principalities and municipalities need to cooperate with buyers and lenders. Programs need to be set up so that people can work on properties and fix them up. More 40 year mortgages need to be put in place, so that payments become more affordable. She would also want less moratoriums being placed on the market so that the problems can fix themselves. Some people should have never been in homeownership to begin with. More incentives need to given to lenders who work with home owners.

Bruce asks Shelley if it might be good to create a short term policy that would forgive foreclosures faster than before since this scenario got so out of hand. Shelley thinks that would be a good idea because people are losing their good credit. The government should really talk to the industry that’s at work so they understand what’s happening the in marketplace. For more information visit www.reomac.com.

Shelley Kaye recently joined InSource Financial Services, LLC as a Portfolio Acquisitions Specialist, handling bulk sale purchases of REO properties. Prior to joining InSource she was a Servicing Oversight Specialist with ECC Capital and for 11 years a Senior Asset Manager for First Option Asset Management Services, managing a team of associates as well as a multi-state REO portfolio. Before working at FOAMS, she spent seven years at First Central Bank where she was the assistant to the VP of the Servicing Department. She has been a licensed Realtor for over 20 years and sold properties in Southern California prior to entering the mortgage banking field.

Shelley has served on the REOMAC® Board for the past 8 years and participates as a speaker on a variety of panels for many industry events. She has held the offices of Sponsor Chair, Treasurer, Secretary, and Vice President , prior to becoming REOMAC President in 2008.