The Norris Group Blog

Today’s News Synopsis:

The Commerce Department new home sales increased 23.6% last month. Statistics from LPS show show 9.39% of all loans were delinquent by more than 30 days. The national vacancy rate on multifamily properties  decreased to 7.8%, according to BarCap. A survey from Campbell Survey suggests that home prices will continue to fall.

In The News:

CNN - “New home sales rebound 24%” (7-26-10)

“New home sales increased 23.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 330,000 last month, up from an downwardly revised 267,000 in May, the Commerce Department reported Monday. Sales year-over-year fell 16.7%.”

CBIA - “Housing Starts Rise Again in June, CBIA Announces” (7-26-10)

“According to statistics compiled by the Construction Industry Research Board (CIRB), permits were pulled for 4,238 total housing units in June, up 19 percent from the same month a year ago and up 34 percent from May. It was the largest monthly total since December of 2008 when 4,658 total permits had been issued. Permits for single-family homes totaled 2,628, down 9 percent from June 2009 but up 33 percent from the previous month, while multifamily permits totaled 1,610, up 140 percent from a year ago and up 35 percent from May.”

Wall Street Journal – “Mortgage Delinquencies Fall in June, Still Near Record Highs” (7-26-10)

“Some 9.39% of all loans were 30 days or more past due, down from 9.54% in May, according to LPS Applied Analytics, which tracks loan data. An additional 3.69% of mortgages were in some stage of foreclosure, down from 3.72% in May and the record high of 3.81% in March.”

Housing Wire – “Multifamily Rental Demand Catching up to Supply: BarCap” (7-26-10)

“The multifamily net absorption rate, or the amount of space leased after deducting the amount of supply, increased by more than 46,000 units in Q210, the highest increase in 10 years, according to BarCap. The national vacancy rate on multifamily properties also decreased to 7.8% from 8% over the same time”

Housing Wire – “As FHA Mortgage Volume Increases From 2009, Serious Delinquencies Spike” (7-26-10)

“The rate of seriously delinquent mortgages backed by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) declined slightly from May to June, but the gross number of mortgages that are either 90 or more days past due or in foreclosure increased 35% year-over-year. According to the FHA June single-family operations report, the total volume of mortgage in-force increased more than 24% to 6.4m in June compared to the same month one year ago. The total value of unpaid FHA mortgages was $865.5bn in June, up 30.3% from $663.8bn one year ago and up 3.3% from $837.8bn in May.”

Housing Wire - “The New Math Surrounding HAMP Doesn’t Add Up” (7-26-10)

“There is no other way to say this: we’re being lied to. Willfully. Anyone who managed to read headlines around the U.S. Treasury’s latest HAMP report card last week would likely have thought the program a huge success –- with more than one media outlet trumpeting impossibly miniscule re-default rates among permanent HAMP mods. At HW, we chose not to run with the HAMP redefault numbers except to note that Treasury officials had added them into the latest report card. And this choice was made with purpose: we knew these numbers were fake. Nobody gets a 1.7% redefault rate 6 months after modification –- not even Uncle Sam”

Housing Wire – “Campbell Survey: Housing Prices Drop in June and Will Continue to Fall” (7-26-10)

“A 32% plummet in new home sales in May correlates with a drop in overall homebuyer activity, although updated data out today from the Census Bureau shows a nearly 24% surge in new home sales in June.”

Housing Wire – “Monday Morning Cup of Coffee” (7-26-10)

“The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) took receivership of seven banks last week with a combined cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) of $468.2m. It brings the total closings in 2010 to 103 banks. At this time last year, there were 64 closings. Bank failures in 2009 took until October to pass 100.”

Housing Wire – “MIT-Harvard Study: Foreclosure drops house value by 27%” (7-26-10)

“A foreclosure reduces the value of a house by 27%, on average, and accounts for a much steeper price drop than other forced sales, according to a study by an Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) economist and two Harvard University researchers. In comparison, when a house is sold after the death of an owner, the price drops 5% to 7% on average. When an owner declares bankruptcy, the value sinks 3%, according to the report.”

Bloomberg - “U.S. Small-Business Aid May Create $300 Billion of `Junk’ Loans” (7-26-10)

“The U.S. Senate may vote this week on a bill to funnel $30 billion of capital to community banks, whose business customers typically are small firms. Banks could leverage the sum to make $300 billion in loans that create jobs, according to a Senate summary. That could more than double the commercial and industrial loans at eligible banks as of the first quarter, according to data compiled by KBW Inc.”

Orange County Register – “Owners rush to sell O.C. homes” (7-26-10)

“Orange County housing inventory grew by the largest amount so far this year, adding an additional 418 homes in the past two weeks and now totals 11,235. The market has not breached the 11,000 mark since the beginning of April 2009. Last year at this time the inventory was at 8,895 homes, 2,340 fewer than today. The inventory has not stopped growing at all this year as more and more pent up homeowners have opted to place their homes on the market at unrealistic levels.”

Orange County Register – “O.C. distressed homes up 35%” (7-26-10)

“Last year at this time, there were 2,616 distressed homes on the market, 841 fewer than today. The number of foreclosures within the active listing inventory increased by 35 homes in the past two weeks from 578 to 613 … Short sales, where a homeowner attempts to sell a home for less than the total outstanding loans against a home, requiring lender approval, increased by 115 homes over the past two weeks and now total 2,844.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, the quarterly homeownership rate was 67.3 percent. The average rate on 30-year fixed mortgages was 5.2 percent. The state Senate approved a budget package that was believed to be capable of closing the state’s $26.3 billion deficit.