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California Real Estate Headline Roundup

Posts Tagged ‘Alt-a’

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 6/4/10

Friday, June 4th, 2010

Sources:
http://www.dsnews.com/articles/banks-have-recognized-60-of-expected-loan-charge-offs-moodys-2010-06-03
http://www.dsnews.com/articles/more-than-172000-loan-mods-completed-in-april-hope-now-2010-06-03
http://www.hopenow.com/industry-data/HOPE%20NOW%20Data%20Report%20(April)%2005-28-2010.pdf
http://www.dsnews.com/articles/bank-of-americas-principal-reduction-program-is-underway-2010-06-02
http://www.car.org/newsstand/newsreleases/1178senatevote/
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a0FzoElM6T4A&pos=2
http://www.housingwire.com/2010/06/02/freddie-mac-details-hafa-initiative-for-distressed-homeowners
http://www.housingwire.com/2010/06/02/california-set-to-vote-on-foreclosure-mediation-bill

Today’s News Synopsis:

The California Senate passed a new bill requiring mortgage servicers to notify borrowers of a right to seek options that would avoid foreclosure. Freddie Mac reports the average interest rate for 30-year FRMs increased by 0.01 percent from last week. Total U.S. non-farm payrolls grew by 431,000 in May. According to SNL Financial, the total value of foreclosed properties held by US banks reached $41.5bn in Q110.

In The News:

Housing Wire - “California Senate Passes Foreclosure Legislation” (6-4-10)

“Senate Bill (SB) 1275 requires mortgage servicers to notify borrowers of a right to seek options that would avoid foreclosure and attach an application for a loan modification or other alternatives before issuing a notice of default (NOD). Also before filing an NOD, servicers must evaluate a borrower who submits a written request for a loan modification. For those denied one, a separate letter must be mailed to the borrower informing them of the denial and reasons why.”

Housing Wire – “CoreLogic Expands Data Coverage to Reach 3,100 Counties” (6-4-10)

“CoreLogic (CLGX: 20.26 -0.39%) the data analytics group spun off by First American Financial (FAF: 13.70 -0.94%), expanded its data-set coverage to 3,100 counties, representing 99.8% of the US population. According to CoreLogic, the public record county assessor data includes land dimensions, legal descriptions, ownership, and tax and value information. The company then links the information to current and historic transaction data such as deeds, mortgages, pre-foreclosure and other involuntary liens.”

Housing Wire – “Rep Sherman Joins Call for Credit-Rating Agency Reform” (6-4-10)

“Credit-rating agencies (CRAs) are often criticized for assigning triple-A status to risk-laden securities that were ultimately written down when the underlying subprime and Alt-A mortgages defaulted. Sherman compared this practice with a baseball team picking its own umpire.”

Bloomberg - “Fannie Mae’s Duncan Says Homebuyer Tax Credit Shifted Demand” (6-4-10)

“The federal homebuyer tax credit shifted demand in the U.S. housing market without having a lasting impact on prices, according to Douglas Duncan, chief economist of Fannie Mae, the largest mortgage financier.”

Realty Times – “Transform Your Home with Home Staging” (6-4-10)

“De-clutter: I know we all accumulate lots of clutter and then get used to living with it. But really, clutter is a big distraction for buyers. Often they simply can’t imagine what the home would look like without all that clutter. So, make it easy for them. Start with a clutter-free home when you list it for sale. De-Personalize: do you want buyers spending more time looking at your personal photos or your home? Easy answer…so, put away the photos and trinkets. Besides, you’re moving…you need to pack them up anyway.”

Realty Times – “Long- and Short-Term Rates Nearly Unchanged From Last Week” (6-4-10)

“Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®) in which the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.79 percent with an average 0.8 point for the week ending June 3, 2010, up slightly from last week when it averaged 4.78 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.29 percent.”

Housing Wire – “Day of Swings Puts Dow Below 10,000 at Close” (6-4-10)

“The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) lost around 324 points on the day to close below 10,000, marking one of the worst daily declines all year. The fall escalated on disappointing jobs data published this morning by the Department of Labor (DOL). Total non-farm payrolls grew by 431,000 in May as the 2010 Census added 411,000 temporary employees, according to the DOL. The figures fell short of economist expectations. Private-sector employment grew by more than 41,000 in May, below analyst projections of 55,000.”

Housing Wire – “Foreclosed Properties Held by Banks Up 12.4% in Q110: SNL Financial” (6-4-10)

“Foreclosed properties held by US banks reached $41.5bn in Q110, a 12.4% increase from the previous quarter, according to data analysis firm SNL Financial. The amount of foreclosed properties jumped from $36.9bn at the end of 2009. At the end of the first quarter in 2008, that number was $11.7bn. Andrew Schukman, an analyst at SNL Financial said that the amount of one-to-four family properties in some stage of the foreclosure process (and not yet an REO) reached $78.6bn in Q110, up 9.1% from the end of last year.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, rates on 30-year home loans surged above 5 percent. Santa Maria became the latest California jurisdiction to reduce development impact fees it charges homebuilders. Economists at IHS Global Insight claimed that Orange County homes were 11% undervalued in the first quarter of 2009. Statistics from The Pew Hispanic Center showed that homeownership rates amongst minorities had climbed significantly since 1995.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 5/10/10

Monday, May 10th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

Fannie Mae is asking for $8.4 billion in government aid. According to Fitch Ratings, Serious delinquencies among US Alt-A residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) declined in April. First American CoreLogic reports that underwater mortgages and borrowers with less than 5% home equity accounted for 28% of all residential properties. Statistics from Zillow show more than a fifth of U.S. mortgage holders owed more than their homes were worth in the first quarter.

Looking Back:

Mortgage Bankers Association – “Study: Americans Will Be Permanently Impacted by Recent Recession” (5-10-10)

“The historically slow recovery of the economy and lack of substantial job growth could cause negative, lasting effects on the current young generation and force many retirement age individuals to remain in the workforce, according to a study released today by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). The impact of a higher unemployment rate for Americans aged 16 – 24 could have a lasting effect on lifetime earnings and attitudes toward risk and social policies. In addition, those nearing retirement are delaying retirement and reentering the labor force in an effort to rebuild some of the retirement wealth that was wiped out by the recession.”

San Francisco Chronicle – “Fannie Mae seeks $8.4B in aid after 1Q loss” (5-10-10)

“Fannie Mae has again asked taxpayers for more money — this time $8.4 billion — after reporting another steep loss for the first quarter. The taxpayer bill for rescuing Fannie and its sibling Freddie Mac has grown to $145 billion — and the final tally could be much higher.”

Housing Wire – “Alt-A RMBS Delinquencies Post First Decline in 4 Years” (5-10-10)

“Serious delinquencies among US Alt-A residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) declined in April for the first time in four years, according to the latest data from Fitch Ratings. Subprime RMBS delinquencies fell in the second straight month, and prime RMBS delinquencies rose slightly.”

Housing Wire – “Underwater Mortgages Stabilized in First Quarter: CoreLogic” (5-10-10)

“The number of borrowers with negative equity declined slightly in Q110, but underwater mortgages and borrowers with less than 5% home equity accounted for 28% of all residential properties, according to the latest data from CoreLogic. More than 11.2m, about 24% of all residential properties with mortgages were in negative equity at the end of Q110. That’s down slightly from 11.3m, or 24%, Q409. The state with the highest rate of negative equity mortgages continues to be Nevada, where 70% of all properties are underwater, followed by Arizona (51%), Florida (48%), Michigan (39%) and California (34%).”

Housing Wire – “Monday Morning Cup of Coffee” (5-10-10)

“Regulators closed four banks, bringing the running 2010 total to 68 failed banks so far. The closures, located in Arizona, California, Florida and Minnesota, are expected to cost the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) a total $213.7m. Last week, regulators shut down seven banks at a cost of more than $7.33bn.”

Bloomberg - “Cemex, Vulcan Call Turn in Construction as Sales Rise” (5-10-10)

“A four-year slump in construction may be nearing an end, with the biggest U.S. building-material makers reporting higher monthly sales that have yet to spread industrywide. Cemex SAB, the largest U.S. cement producer, and Vulcan Materials Co., the top gravel supplier, just reported monthly volume increases for March and April, their first since 2006. The results exceeded estimates and may lead the Portland Cement Association, a trade organization that represents U.S. and Canadian companies, to increase its growth forecast this year, said Ed Sullivan, its chief economist.”

Bloomberg - “Fed Hinting on Mortgage-Bond Sales Brings Bernanke Tightening” (5-10-10)

“Words may speak louder than actions for Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke when the time comes to outline plans to raise interest rates and shrink the central bank’s balance sheet. Altering a pledge to keep short-term borrowing costs low or articulating plans to begin selling the $1.1 trillion in mortgage-backed securities it now holds will amount to a tightening of monetary policy because the announcements will send bond yields higher, raising borrowing costs, said Mitch Stapley, chief fixed-income officer at Fifth Third Asset Management in Grand Rapids, Michigan.”

Bloomberg - “Mortgage Holders Owing More Than Homes Are Worth Rise to 23%” (5-10-10)

“More than a fifth of U.S. mortgage holders owed more than their homes were worth in the first quarter as repossessions climbed to a record, according to Zillow.com. Twenty-three percent of owners of mortgaged homes were underwater during the period, up from 21 percent in the previous three months, the Seattle-based property data provider said today in a report. More than one in 1,000 homes were repossessed by lenders in March, the highest rate in Zillow data dating back to 2000.”

Looking Back:

One year ago,Campbell Communications reported only 23 percent of short sale transactions were being completed. Obama proposed making the Federal Reserve serve as a finance supercop.

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173-TNG Radio – Leslie Appleton-Young 5-8-10

Friday, May 7th, 2010

Leslie Appleton-Young

Leslie Appleton-Young,
Chief Economist of the California Association of Realtors

(Full Bio)

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This week Bruce is joined by Chief Econ0mist for the California Association of Realtors, Leslie Appleton-Young.

The peak of the median home price in May 2007 was almost $600,000. Bruce believes there were indications that we were no longer in the peak in May 2007 despite the fact that median prices reached that level. Transactions slowed in the 4th quarter of 2005. In Sacramento, there was a lot of new construction, affordable housing, and subprime borrowing. In areas like Sacramento, homes were purchased in 2003 and 2004, but they began adjusting in 2006. These properties started faltering for a full year before they showed up in the data. Sales at the moderate and low end shrunk, but sales at the high end were doing fine, so the median home price became skewed. Prices went down in 2007 and 2008, but at the same time, sales were increasing by over 25 percent.

We have never experienced a price decline like this recent one. However, the San Fernando Valleys had a significant drop in 1990’s when there were fires, floods and riots. At that time, the median went from $225,000 to $165,000 in that area.

There are many owners who put down 20 percent on their home, but now owe more than their house is worth. There were people with good jobs and good mortgages, but got in trouble once prices decreased. In the future, we need to be more aware of cash-out refis. People who had equity would use it for vacations and toys rather than investment. We had such a long run –up in price that people began to think that real estate could not hurt them. They thought that pulling out equity now would be replaced by more equity later, and that was not true.

There are many people who are defaulting strategically presently, because they don’t want to pay for a property which won’t return to its previous value in many years. However, you have to weigh this benefit against the damage done to your credit. Strategic defaults are becoming more prevalent, and it is becoming more socially acceptable. It was once considered bad to choose to stop paying on a mortgage, but now people find it acceptable. Fannie Mae just came out with a statement which allows people to get financing within 2 years if you will give a deed-in-lieu of foreclosure. This new rules will come into affect July 1st. The new mortgage you get in 2 years will likely require 20 percent down.

Distressed sales have never been this high. ForeclosureRadar.com provides a tremendous educational opportunity for those interested in learning about the distressed sales market. In areas like Riverside, distressed sales represent nearly 80 percent of all sales. Short sales are also beginning to increase.

Distressed sales have been more common in the lower end of the market. However, now that the downturn has been going on for so long, foreclosures are becoming more common in the upper end of the market.

In Riverside County, there are approximately 3,000 homes with over 3,000 square feet which are pending for sale. Bruce doubts that we have buyers for all those homes, and the loan balance for many of those homes is probably over $1 million. Bruce thinks that we are going to have a price hit and glut of inventory in the upper end of the market.

Leslie thinks that first time buyers are in good shape with the stimulus package, but the trade-up buyers are having trouble. When you have a median price of $600,000 and the government programs are specifically designed to help people that owe less than the Fannie Mae maximum loan balance, then you are probably missing 35 percent of the market. People who owe $1 million dollars have no encouragement to buy again. Bruce thinks that having a home above 3,500 sq. feet will be less meaningful in appraisal values than ever before.

The spread in the jumbo loan market has come down to 1 percent. Many of these borrowers are putting down 30 to 40 percent down for jumbo loans. To get those loans, you need to have a large down payment and a strong FICO score. Many loans are being held in portfolio by the lender, because they want to have a cushion going forward.

People have different reasons for buying now than they did in 2006. People are not buying homes expecting to get rich off of their homes. They thought they could sell their homes once the interest adjusts or refinance, and when the adjustment time came, neither of those options were available. Now people realize that they are not going to get rich over night just because they own a house, and they are looking for a place to raise a family.

There is a strong disconnect in the mind of a person in congress between the word investor and speculator. In this market, the speculator has gone home, but investors are working to fix up houses and they are needed. Banks do not have the resources to rehab and get homes onto the market in a timely fashion.

Bruce will be a moderator on an interestingly panel coming up in June for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. These two companies are starting bulk divisions. Bruce wonders what size of bulk deals they are planning for, and whether or not there will be restrictions on detaining those properties. Bruce is not sure when Fannie and Freddie will finalize their decision on this subject. Bruce is also trying to get Sean O’toole from ForeclosureRadar.com to be a moderator as well. REO agents can benefit from listing homes ten at a time, rather than 1 at a time. There is a huge chunk of negative equity properties that need to get through the process, and anything that speeds that process up in a reasonable manner is a good thing.

There are many people in California who are showing tremendous character by paying for an upside down property. The best way to reward these people is to show them that there is hope for equity replacement in the near future.

60 percent of people are not buying homes, yet very few are renters. Leslie thinks many of these people are moving in with their parents and children. The housing downturn has affected very aspect of the economy, so people need to save.

There is a statistic showing that 200,000 homes are built every year. Builders are looking at this statistic and thinking they need to build more houses, but you have to be more realistic than that. The reason why builders aren’t building homes is because nobody is willing to buy. However, all these people that have moved in with their families to save money will someday want to move out. We are artificially skewing our building to the low side right now. There will be a day when builders will be behind the curve, and demand will accelerate far faster than the inventory.

Many jobs have been lost in the California construction industry, but these jobs are starting to return. Leslie thinks that this industry will make a comeback in a few years. We need to make jobs from new products and services. We usually expect construction to provide jobs at the end of a downturn, but that will probably not happen this time. Consumer confidence increased in March, but it is still only half of what it was one year ago. The opportunity for builders lies in creating multigenerational housing.

A report was just made on the demographics of California through 2050. The numbers show that we are very different from the other states, and that we will probably grow. Our growth will cause more demand for housing, but it will not happen over the next few years because of the problems we’ve had.

In Riverside, unemployment is close to 15 percent, but that probably translates to around 20 percent because many people have stopped looking for jobs. Riverside County used to be the leading county in California in regards to employment growth. People will always migrate to places with more jobs. California is currently losing people to other states with better employment. Uhaul recently came up with a report on moving destinations, and one of the top destinations was Sacramento. People are moving there because housing is more affordable and they have been able to find some sort of employment. It will take time to work through California’s negative equity position, but we will improve eventually.

Unemployment is usually an instigator of foreclosure, but this time unemployment has lagged from foreclosure yet is increasing the problem. There are areas that were not subprime focused that are being dragged into the overall problem because prices have gone down.

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172-TNG Radio – Leslie Appleton-Young 5-1-10

Friday, April 30th, 2010

Leslie Appleton-Young

Leslie Appleton-Young,
Chief Economist of the California Association of Realtors

(Full Bio)

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download

rss

This week Bruce is joined by Chief Econ0mist for the California Association of Realtors, Leslie Appleton-Young.

Leslie has had a tough job for the past few years, but things have changed for the better this year. Leslie can see the light at the end of the tunnel, and people’s expectations of the market have become more realistic. People are not as afraid of the downturn. However, she does not feel that this is true in all price bands. Over the next 24 months, the upper end of the market will experience many more price reductions. In the moderate to low end of the distressed market, Leslie predicts that prices will remain flat, and possibly increase slightly. The upper end of the market has seen some adjustment, but nothing like the lower end of the market. As the economic turmoil hits upper end markets, sellers will have to be more realistic about what they expect to get for their homes. In Riverside, there are some great homes with loans on them worth $1.5 million, but they cannot even sell for $700,000.

The lower price, subprime inventory has been absorbed, and that part of the market seems to be coming back. The stimulus for first time buyers and the decreased rates have had a significant influence on home purchases.

Every area in California is unique and different, but the dichotomy in today’s housing market has more to do with price than location. Part of the problem is that people are having trouble qualifying for loans. Demand for homes at the low end of the market exceeds the supply, but the opposite is true for the high end.

In the past, Bruce has found that inventory levels are pretty accurate leading statistics. When you are below a certain months level of inventory, you can often reasonably assume that things will turn around. There are a lot of lenders with properties that are not on the market. Default rates have also exploded, but the lenders will not file NODs. There is a penned up group of buyers, and there may also be a penned up group of buyers. Leslie thinks that government intervention will determine how this problem is rectified. It is difficult to predict how the government will deal with this problem.

California has benefited from the stimulus programs. We are starting to see more green shoots, and Leslie thinks that the iPad may have positively affected our economy. The state deficit has decreased over the last few months. California is an outlier. We boom harder, we sell more, and we improve quicker. However, our recovery is generally rather flat. We had a 5.9 percent GDP growth in the 4th quarter of 2009, and 4 percent of that was inventory restocking. Leslie wonders how much of our retail sales growth is tied to all those homes that are behind on their mortgages. We are not out of this downturn yet, but we are improving. The government stimulus is going away, and that is why there is some uncertainty about the outcome of the second half of this year. We will likely see interest rates increase. They have already increased a bit, but only by a quarter point. If interest rates climbed above 6 percent, Leslie thinks that there would be a strong negative reaction in the market.

Sometimes when rates increase, people feel encouraged to buy before rates become unreasonable. It is important for people to remember that it is not clear that prices have bottomed in all categories, but it is pretty clear that rates will be higher in a year than they are now. People need to measure the tradeoff between the cost of increased rates and decreased prices.

When Bruce became an investor, he refinanced his home in 1981 at 17.5 percent. One year later, he was delighted to refinance at 12.5. Very smart people told him that rates would never go below 10 percent, but now many people would feel jipped if they bought at a rate above 6 percent even though that is a historically incredible rate.

One thing that is really different this time around is the role of equity, or the lack of it, has played in the cycle. If you don’t have equity, you are not a homeowner. The policies for home buying and selling during the boom caused many of our current problems. When you have to pony up 20 percent, and you have equity in your home, you treat home buying and selling very differently than someone who is buying without documentation and zero down. In 2006, 40 percent of Realtors working with first time home buyers said that the buyers did not put down any money.

Bruce thinks the timing of the no down program was atrocious, because the price to income level was absurd. However, Bruce actually thinks we should have a no-down program in our current market. We have to create households that are fit to own. We have just taken back hundreds of thousands of homes from people that wanted to be owners, which are now credit damaged and cannot re-enter the market. We could make a no-down payment program, but when somebody doesn’t make a payment, we could let the loan go forward to the next owner without qualifying just like how the FHA once operated. The other option is to let the opening bid for the next 5 years to consist of just the late payment. If we used this program, there would never be an REO. The nothing down program would create a lot of interest in new owners, and we might retain the current percentage of homeownership that we already have. Bruce fears that we will have a national decline in the 62 percent range, and California will have another downturn in homeownership. Bruce loves the statistics that Leslie puts out.

There is a big difference between the net dollar amount coming to the seller now in comparison to the past. It was once around $200,000, but now its only about $50,000. One-third of these sellers sold at a lost. This creates a negative perspective on real estate which discourages people from investing in a home in the future. In a recent survey, 60 percent of past homebuyers claimed to have no future interest in buying again.

California homes are very affordable right now, because of the price decrease and the low interest rates. However, we are still feeling that it is necessary to encourage potential buyers to enter the market. The tax credit was truly a present to first time buyers. First time buyers are now approximately 50 percent of the volume of current home buyers.

We now have a healthy volume of sells. For 19 consecutive months, we have had a pace of over 500,000. We never even passed the 500,000 pace until 1999. The accumulative dollars are very different now from the peak. Commissions earned by realtors are very different from 2006 and 2007. Incomes have changed the membership of CAR, but not as much as Leslie was expecting. In 2007, there were 211,000 realtors in California. This year, we will probably have around 172,000. That is a significant drop, but considering the significant drop in profit volume, that is a rather small drop. This isn’t surprising though because the economy has not left with people with many other job options. If you work hard enough, you can still be successful. This market works well for the first time agent because there are a lot of first time buyers.

Website presence is critical right now. A recent buyers’ survey asked, “Did you look in the newspaper during your home search?” The results showed that only 10 percent of people were using the paper as a reference. People are searching for homes using very different methods, but it is actually very cheap to advertise online. All of the brokerages have cut back on overhead and expenses. A realtor may not have an office, but they can still be visible online if they have a laptop.

The internet has allowed the consumer to shop around without spending the realtor’s time. However, Leslie has found that 85 percent of home buyers were shown their current home by an agent. Perhaps the internet is presenting too much information for uneducated buyers. Also, in a market where properties are selling quickly, you need to have an agent helping you to be the first potential buyer in line.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 1/11/10

Monday, January 11th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

The national unemployment rate remained at 10 percent during December. LPS reports that 1 in every 7.5 fell into foreclosure or delinquency during November. According to Fitch Ratings, 2009 commercial delinquency rates ended at 4.71%.

In The news:

Bloomberg - “Shrinking U.S. Labor Force Keeps Unemployment Rate From Rising” (1-9-09)

“An exodus of discouraged workers from the job market kept the U.S. unemployment rate from climbing above 10 percent in December, economists said.”

Housing Wire – “More than 13% of Mortgages Delinquent or Foreclosed in November: LPS” (1-11-09)

“One in every 7.5 homeowners either fell into delinquency or foreclosure as of November 30, 2009, according to the December mortgage monitor report from Lender Processing Services (LPS), a mortgage data provider. The total amount of delinquencies reached a record high 9.97%, a 5.46% increase from the previous month and a 21.29% increase from November 2008. In a sign that homeowners continue their struggle to meet their monthly mortgage payments, loans falling into more severe delinquent categories reached 5.01% through November, compared to 1.52% of loans improved toward a current status.”

Housing Wire – “$47bn of Interest-Only RMBS Loans to Recast This Year, Fitch Says” (1-11-09)

“More than $47bn of collateral backing prime and Alt-A residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) is scheduled to recast over the next 12 months from an interest-only (IO) payment to a fully amortizing payment, Fitch Ratings said in market commentary Monday.”

Housing Wire – “Financial, Mortgage Hirings Up as Overall Employment Dips” (1-11-09)

“The DOL’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Friday said the national unemployment rate was 10% in December, unchanged from November. Despite the overall loss, the financial-activities sector gained a net 4,000 jobs in December, the first gain since summer 2007, according to a search of the Bureau of Labor Statistics online database. Jobs increased from November (7,691,000) to 7,695,00 in December.”

Housing Wire – “Q409 Losses on the Way for Banks: Citi” (1-11-09)

“Citigroup (C: 3.63 +1.11%) analysts expect Q409 losses for Morgan Stanley (MS: 32.04 -0.65%), Goldman Sachs (GS: 171.56 -1.58%), Bank of America (BAC: 16.93 +0.89%) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM: 44.53 -0.34%) due to a “substantial” decline in fixed-income, commodities and currencies (FICC) trading, according to a 2010 Outlook report.”

Housing Wire – “CMBS Delinquencies May Double by 2012, Says Fitch” (1-11-09)

“An increase in defaults across property types pushed total commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) delinquencies 42 bps higher, closing 2009 at 4.71% delinquent, according to credit-rating agency Fitch Ratings. The rate of growth in delinquent CMBS looks set to continue in coming years, with a potential peak at 12% in 2012.”

Housing Wire - “Redefault Rates ‘Tragic’, Says Amherst” (1-11-09)

“According to Amherst Securities Group, default and prepayment rates on non-agency, private-label mortgage-backed securities (MBS) were constant in November. However, re-performance rates, where payments return to less than two months delinquent, were down and re-default rates “tragic” in November, according to market commentary provided by the firm.”

Bloomberg - “Fed’s Bullard Says Asset-Purchase Adjustments Main Policy Issue” (1-11-09)

“Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said the main challenge for U.S. policy makers will be to adjust the asset-purchase program so as to continue supporting economic growth without stoking inflation. ”

Looking Back:

One year ago, some Realtors forecasted that condo prices would not bottom in 2009. Congressional budget analysts anticipated a $1.2 trillion deficit for 2009.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 11/20/09

Friday, November 20th, 2009

Today’s News Synopsis:

An amendment was passed which allows federal regulators to dismantle financial firms considered to be “too big to fail”.  According to PMI Group, new home sales decreased by 3.6 percent. The NAHB estimates that families earning the national median income can afford 70.1 percent of the new and existing homes sold in Q3 of 2009. First American CoreLogic reports that home prices declined by 9.8 percent in September from the previous year.

In The News:

NAR - “Commercial Real Estate Forecast Uncertain” (11-19-09)

“The first commercial mortgage bond deal in over a year shows the Federal Reserve’s efforts to sell securities through the TALF program can be fruitful, but the level of activity is well below what is required to resuscitate the commercial market. Credit availability needs to significantly rebound for any hope of a meaningful commercial recovery in 2010.”

DQNews - “California October Home Sales” (11-19-09)

“An estimated 41,280 new and resale houses and condos were sold statewide last month. That was up 2.6 percent from 40,216 in September, and down 2.4 percent from 42,293 for October 2008. California sales for the month of October have varied from a low of 25,832 in 2007 to a peak of 70,152 in 2003, the average is 44,451. MDA DataQuick’s statistics go back to 1988. ”

Mortgage Bankers Association – “Delinquencies Continue to Climb in Latest MBA National Delinquency Survey” (11-19-09)

“The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties rose to a seasonally adjusted rate of 9.64 percent of all loans outstanding as of the end of the third quarter of 2009, up 40 basis points from the second quarter of 2009, and up 265 basis points from one year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey. The non-seasonally adjusted delinquency rate increased 108 basis points from 8.86 percent in the second quarter of 2009 to 9.94 percent this quarter.”

Inman - “Fannie: ‘Recovery is here’” (11-19-09)

“The deepest and longest recession since the Great Depression appears to be over, Fannie Mae economists say, projecting sales of new and existing homes will jump 11 percent next year and that national home prices will stabilize, remaining essentially flat.”

Housing Wire – “Freddie’s Weekly Mortgage Rates Near Record Lows” (11-19-09)

“Freddie Mac’s (FRE: 1.16 -1.69%) weekly survey of average interest rates put the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) at 4.83% with an average 0.7 point for the week ending Nov. 12, down from the average rate of 4.91% the previous week. That’s a mere 5bps shy of Freddie Mac’s record low of 30-year FRM rates, reached twice in April this year. Last year, the rate was 6.04%.”

DQNews - “Bay Area median sale price tops year-ago level for first time since ‘07″ (11-19-09)

“The median price paid for all new and resale houses and condos that closed escrow rose to $390,000, up 6.8 percent from $365,000 in September and up 4 percent from $375,000 in October 2008. The last time the median sale price rose on a year-over-year basis was in November 2007, when it gained 1.5 percent, according to MDA DataQuick of San Diego.”

Bloomberg - “General Growth Makes $9 Billion Debt Restructure Deal” (11-19-09)

“General Growth Properties Inc. reached a deal with some of its largest lenders to restructure about $9 billion of mortgage debt through its Chapter 11 case.”

Bloomberg - “California Scales Back Bond Sale 45% Amid Prison Legal Issue” (11-19-09)

“California, the most indebted U.S. state, sold $743.3 million of tax-exempt bonds today, scaling back the offer by 45 percent because of legal issues raised yesterday about a project at San Quentin State Prison. ”

Bloomberg - “Bankruptcies Will Rise Next Year, Weil’s Miller Says” (11-19-09)

“U.S. companies will increasingly declare bankruptcy next year as high-yield debt matures, said Harvey Miller, the lawyer who handled the reorganizations of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and General Motors Corp. Filings from commercial real estate firms will be part of that increase, said Miller, a lawyer with Weil Gotshal & Manges LLP, speaking today at a conference in New York. ”

Housing Wire - “Fed Buys Another $16Bn of Agency MBS” (11-20-09)

“The Federal Reserve Bank of New York bought another $16bn of agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in the week ending November 18.”

Housing Wire – “House Amendment Allows Dismantling of ‘Too Big to Fail’ Firms” (11-20-09)

“A House Financial Services Committee amendment that passed this week would empower federal regulators to dismantle financial firms considered ‘too big to fail.’ The amendment, authored by House Financial Services Subcommittee on Capital Markets, Insurance, and Government Sponsored Enterprises chair Paul Kanjorski (D-PA), was included to the Financial Stability Improvement Act with a vote of 38-29.”

Housing Wire – “ABCP Outstandings Slip 35% in 2009″ (11-20-09)

“Total US asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP) outstandings were at $455bn as of November 4, a 35% decline from the beginning of 2009, according to market commentary by Fitch Ratings.”

Housing Wire – “PMI Group Sees Mixed Housing Activity in September” (11-20-09)

“The seasonally adjusted rate of new home sales decreased for the first time in six months, down 3.6% to 402,000. PMI Group said this decline was due in part to concerns the first-time homebuyer tax credit would expire.”

Housing Wire – “Combined Loan to Values Swell to 107% in July 2009: Equifax” (11-20-09)

“The average CLTV, a ratio used to determine the risk of default when more than one loan is used, for current Alt-A loans ballooned from 75% in July 2005 to 107% in July 2009, according to the study. Home price declines and an increase in the popularity and size of second liens caused the rise, analysts reported.”

Housing Wire – “House Affordability Dips in Q309: NAHB” (11-20-09)

“Families earning the national median income could afford 70.1% of the new and existing homes sold in Q309, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo (WFC: 27.87 -1.59%) Housing Opportunity Index (HOI).”

Housing Wire – “Prices Down 9.8% in September: First American” (11-20-09)

“National home prices declined 9.8% year-over-year in September, according to First American CoreLogic’s home price index (HPI). In August, the year-over-year decline was 11.1% and on a month-over-month basis prices declined 0.4%, ending a five-month run of consecutive monthly price increases.”

Bloomberg - “D.R. Horton Shares Plunge as Losses Exceed Estimates” (11-20-09)

“D.R. Horton Inc., the second-largest U.S. homebuilder, dropped the most in more than a year after reporting a fourth-quarter loss that exceeded analysts’ estimates and saying the housing outlook remains difficult. The shares fell 15 percent. The net loss for the three months ended Sept. 30 was $231.9 million, or 73 cents a share, the Fort Worth, Texas-based company said today in a statement. The average estimate of 8 analysts in a Bloomberg survey was for a loss of 24 cents.”

Bloomberg - “U.S. Commercial Property Sales to Drop to $49 Billion” (11-20-09)

“U.S. commercial real estate deals are likely to fall to $49 billion in 2009, the lowest in records going back to 2001, Real Capital Analytics Inc. said today.”

Inman - “Google makes yet another big move into real estate territory” (11-20-09)

“A couple weeks ago we noted the company’s move to include a real estate overlay on Google Maps, which put listings smack-dab in front of millions of Google users who likely had no idea the company has spent the last several years quietly aggregating this content. Now, today, search engine land reports that Google has taken this one step further to include a unique page for every listing that includes photos, a map (including Street View) property details, directions, transit information and more. It’s a listing detail page, basically.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, 7,613 houses and condos closed escrow in the Bay Area. Economists expected economic activity to drop by .6 to .8 percent. The Commerce Department reported that housing starts fell lower than any single month on record.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 10/29/09

Thursday, October 29th, 2009

Today’s News Synopsis:

Moody’s estimates that prices will continue to decline until Q3 of 2010. According to Freddie Mac, interest rates on 30-year fixed rate loans have increased to 5.03 percent. The U.S. Census Bureau reports that the number of vacant properties rose to 18.7 million, but the homeownership rate has maintained at 67.6 percent.

In The News:

San Francisco Chronicle – “Economy growing but recovery could be at risk” (10-29-09)

“Federal support for spending on cars and homes drove the economy up 3.5 percent from July through September. But the government aid — from tax credits for home buyers to rebates for auto purchases — is only temporary. Consumer spending, which normally drives recoveries, is likely to weaken without it.”

Housing Wire – “House Price Declines Weigh on Alt-A, Jumbo RMBS Ratings: Moody’s” (10-29-09)

“Moody’s Investors Service on Thursday said it will begin taking ratings actions in Q409 as needed to account for updated assumptions underlying US residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) loss projections. The loss projection revisions come as Moody’s expects house prices to continue to decline to a Q310 trough. Based on recent loan loss severities, the rating agency will increase its projected lifetime loan losses for pools backing US Jumbo, Alt-A, Option ARM and subprime RMBS issued from ‘05 to ‘08.”

Housing Wire – “Sallie Mae To Lose $95M on Mortgage, Real Estate Sale” (10-29-09)

“Student loan giant SLM Corp. (SLM: 10.20 +1.09%) will recognize a loss of as much as $95m on the sale of mortgages and real estate-related assets this quarter, according to a Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filing.”

Housing Wire – “CIT Gets Second Private Capital Bailout” (10-29-09)

“CIT Group Inc. (CIT: 0.9146 -13.72%), a commercial lender offering financing to small and medium businesses, this week expanded an existing $3bn senior secured credit facility to obtain $4.5bn in new credit.”

Housing Wire – “Freddie Sees Weekly 30-Year Fixed Rate Pass 5%” (10-29-09)

“Freddie Mac’s (FRE: 1.2901 +11.22%) weekly survey put the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) interest rate at 5.03% with an average 0.7 point for the week ending Oct. 29, up from 5% in the previous week. A year ago, the rate was 6.46%.”

Bloomberg - “U.S. Home Vacancies Rise to 18.8 Million on Defaults” (10-29-09)

“The number of vacant properties, including foreclosures, residences for sale and vacation homes, rose from 18.4 million a year earlier and 18.7 million in the second quarter, the U.S. Census Bureau said in a report today. The record high was in the first quarter, when 18.95 million homes were vacant. The homeownership rate, meaning households that own their own residence, stood at 67.6 percent.”

Bloomberg - “BlackRock, T. Rowe Price Seek Fed Loans to Buy Bonds” (10-29-09)

“Mutual funds run by companies including BlackRock Inc. and T. Rowe Price Group Inc. have begun buying bonds through a $1 trillion government lending program after a June regulatory ruling cleared the way.”

Bloomberg - “PHH Targets Realogy for Mortgages, Keeps Merrill, New CEO Says” (10-29-09)

“PHH, the fourth-largest U.S. originator of mortgages directly to consumers, can win a greater share of Realogy customers because more than 130 lenders have failed since 2007 and remaining rivals keep changing underwriting rules, Selitto said in an interview Oct. 27. Merrill Lynch contributed 21 percent of 2008 originations at PHH and was sold in January to Bank of America, which has its own mortgage unit.”

Orange County Register – “UCLA sees 16% home-price gain in 2010″ (10-29-09)

“Double-digit housing appreciation will return to Orange County next year, with the median home price rising somewhere from 15.9% to 16.6%, UCLA economists forecast in a report released today.”

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122-TNG Radio – Leslie Appleton-Young 5-16-09

Friday, May 15th, 2009

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Leslie Appleton-Young

Chief Economist for the California Association of Realtors

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Bruce Norris is joined once again by Chief Economist for the California Association of Realtors, Leslie Appleton-Young.

Bruce begins by asking Leslie about the CAR payment protection program. Leslie says that C.A.R. has a housing affordability fund, which was developed around 2002. It is a fundraising arm, run by a group of members, which gets proposals from local associations for various projects. Since the downturn, the committee has decided to do something that has potential to impact the market by putting people into homes. The committee has developed a $1 million dollar program, which can be used to pay a premium on an insurance policy for a qualified first time home buyer who uses a California Realtor.

The criteria for this program includes someone who has not owned a home in 3 years and you have to have been employed for a minimum of four months. The policy does not begin to pay on a job loss situation for six months, and then the policy will pay for $1,500 dollars of the mortgage payment for six months. If there are two buyers then the second buyer will get $750 dollar benefit. The application does not take place until the close of escrow. The buss has been tremendous. Leslie is hoping that this program will be able to help 3,000 home buyers.

Bruce asks Leslie if the funds given from this program need to be paid back and she says no. She says that it is an insurance policy that does not need to be paid back. She is hoping that this insurance policy will encourage 3,000 people will make the choice to buy their first home. Hopefully it gets people off the fence.

Bruce asks Leslie what encourages her most about the current California market. She has seen a tremendous amount of resiliency within the last year and a half. The damage that we have withstood since the beginning of the downturn can be compared to a forest fire; things get damaged, but in time you begin to see the green seedlings come up. Seeing 7,000 people attending the first time home buying fair was very gratifying to her. People are starting to look at homes as a place to live and a long term investment which is very important. The motivations and expectations are changing.

Bruce has studied migration for years, and he is sure that California is losing migration right now, but he believes that when California gains more job stability that we will receive more migration from all states, because we are a very desirable place to be, and our monthly payment will be lower in ratio of earnings here than in other places. Leslie says that it is difficult to predict what will happen to California because of all the socioeconomic and demographic changes going on in society. One of the things that will have to happen is making more livable cities. Technology allows you to live and work anywhere. It has been argued that the younger generation will be more mobile because they will have 8 jobs in their career, rather than just 1 or 2 like the boomers. Location isn’t as relevant because society is becoming so mobile.

Bruce believes that the retiring baby boomers will be attracted to California. They will have the choice to pay a $300 dollar gas bill, so that they do not freeze during the winter, or they can move to California where you can survive without a heater. Climate is huge.

The traditional buyer, which is the person that hires the Realtor that they knew or the person that drives by the for sale sign, has been replaced with the online buyer. Leslie says that 78 percent of home buyers use the internet during their selection process, and most of them say that they found their agent on the internet, but different surveys produce different results. The only explanation that she can come up with for the different results is that people are being exposed to more advertising and different types of advertising, which is why she tells her members that they cannot do only one kind of advertising. Only 20 percent of home buyers have claimed that they use print in their home search, and 75 percent of that 20 percent said that they looked at the weekend supplements for open houses.

Bruce believes that Realtors have to understand that customers are always looking for and up to something new. Leslie says that she knows a lot of Realtors who team up with people of different ages, so that they can appeal to a larger number of people.

Bruce says that there are two factors, shadow inventory and a large pile of notices of default that will affect trustee deeds and more REOs. He believes that inventory levels are giving us a false indicator, and that the REOs are going to greatly affect the market before the end of the summer. Leslie believes that we will see a second wave of foreclosures during the 4th quarter of this year. The notices of default are going to affect the market, there are Alt-A and option ARMs that are typically a five year fix, and there will be a continued loss of jobs. Lenders are saying the inventory is out there but clearly there is a bottleneck.

There are now three times as many foreclosed properties in comparison to normal listings compared to last cycle. That is the one ration that Bruce believes must rectify itself before a normal price environment can return. We have to get through the bulk REOs. The Norris Group used Krunching.com to track trust deeds back to the lender when they could not find the inventory reemerge as a grant deed or a listing, and they discovered that there were many cases like this.

Obama claimed that the government would give $75 billion dollars to loan modifications, and that not one dollar of it will go to investors. This worries Bruce because he fears that Obama may have been speaking about all investors, rather than just speculators.

Bruce believes that many of the problems in the 90’s were solved because of the 203K loan that investors could use, but this loan option has not reopened to investors yet. It allowed investors to buy a fixer upper and include their purchase price plus the repair cost in the loan. Bruce hopes that they will reactivate that loan for investors.

Bruce asked Leslie, “How do realtors view investors?” She replies investors are a very important part of the market. They are one of the forces behind the current market strength. One of the issues that she has heard is that first time buyers are having difficulty competing with investors. In defense of the REO agent, Bruce claimed that investors get offers when they protect the owner occupant from a failure. The inventory will not work for a conventional loan at this time.

Bruce asks Leslie how she feels about the cram downs. She says that CAR has been opposed to cram downs because cram downs increase the cost of financing for every one else. Bruce thinks that is a scary thing to start because it gives bonuses to people who declare bankruptcy. Usually that is something you do not want to do because it prevents you from getting a loan, but in this case it can help you.

Bruce asks Leslie what she believes will cause the market to become healthier. She believes that inventory and foreclosures are the most important factors. The future is unknown because it all depends on how quickly the economy reinvents itself.

Bruce asks Leslie if she thinks our current interest rates will remain low for a significant amount of time. Leslie believes that interest rates will increase significantly in a few years. The price and interest rate combination are an amazing bargain right now.

Leslie Appleton-Young is Vice President and Chief Economist for the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.), a statewide trade organization with members dedicated to the advancement of professionalism in real estate.

Mrs. Appleton-Young directs the activities of the Association’s Member Information Group. She oversees the analysis of housing market and brokerage industry trends, member communications, and membership development activities. She is also closely involved in the Association’s strategic planning efforts and is a well-known speaker in California’s real estate community.

Before joining C.A.R. in 1984, Leslie Appleton-Young was a consultant with Telesis Inc. in Rhode Island. She also spent several years working as a research associate at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and as an instructor at the University of Pennsylvania.

Mrs. Appleton-Young earned a Bachelor of Arts degree in economics from the University of California, Berkeley, and her Masters from the University of Pennsylvania.

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84-TNG Radio – I Survived Real Estate 9-6-08

Saturday, August 30th, 2008

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I Survived Real Estate 2008

Part Two

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The airing of I Survived Real Estate 2008 continues to air. Video is also available on thenorrisgroup.com.

Part two picks up with Bruce Norris introducing Christopher Thornberg who represents the economics part of the equation. Christopher is a self proclaimed bear and was one of the few that predicted the downturn was coming. Christopher discusses employment, housing starts and how they can only go to zero, consumer sales, exports, his thought on recession and the varying views that exist, if the worst is yet to come, and where he stands.

Christopher talks about the housing market and the false indicator of increases in home sales. Christopher says homes prices got too ridiculous and that prices did not match what people were making. Increases in incomes did not keep up with home price appreciation. The only reason prices got that high was of the crazy financing that took place.

Christopher says the pace of home price declines look to be around 30% per year and the mix of foreclosures to home sales is not looking good. Christopher addresses how far prices will fall.

Christopher believes financial losses will total over $1 trillion and that several institutions will fail because of overexposure. The leverage of some institutions is 100 to 1 such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Christopher reviews some of the new features of the newly passed housing bill and how little it will actually accomplish. With the money that the government will release to California alone, doing the math it means California will only be able to purchase around 4,000 homes which is a very small piece of the large REO pie. Allowing banks to revise certain consumers loans. The government actually foots the bill. $140 billion lent to banks but they are still a big mess.

Christopher talks about the tax rebate and how it didn’t increase spending enough. He says the consumers are dealing with two bubbles. Savings rates have gone from 8% to 0% and that a great amount of net wealth disappear. Consumers will be forced to save for the first time and will also be bad for the short run. With contraction in spending, it means a slow down in retail and other consumer-driven sectors. Cocktail statement: Keep you’re eye on 2010.

Bruce introduces Rick Sharga who is the VP of marketing for RealtyTrac. Rick talks about foreclosures and the implication of the current glut on the market. Rick talks about the media obsession with foreclosures and the huge interest in foreclosure data.

Rick talks about how we got into the position we’re in; lending. What drove some of the behavior was Fed policy and that money became practically free. People who should never have been able to get a loan got one in the boom. Wall Street securitized these loans and had a voracious appetite to do so. Due diligence was practically thrown out the window. Bankers went from buy and hold strategy to buy, package and sell and do it again.

RealtyTrac captures foreclosure data from 2,200 counties nationwide. 1.2 million foreclosure filings occurred in 2006 and over 2.3 million in 2007. In California the numbers were much worse as a percentage compared to other states. 2008 will be far worse. Rick discusses the areas hit the hardest. He mentions 7 of the top 12 markets hit hardest are in California. In Stockton, 1 in 25 receives a foreclosure notice. Foreclosure homes are outselling the resale of homes at this point. Existing homes sales aren’t increasing like most would think. The resets for subprime will continue. 32 months of foreclosure data increases thus far with no end in sight. Alt A and Option Arms will cause more problems in 2009.

While the market is sure to continue its decline, Rick points out there will be plenty of opportunities for investors in the coming years.

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