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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 12/01/09

Tuesday, December 1st, 2009

Today’s News Synopsis:

The NAR reports that pending home sales increased during October by 3.7 percent. The California Board of Equalization claims that most homeowners will see a decline in property tax after a deflation of 0.237 percent.  According to Real Estate Econometrics LLC, the commercial mortgage default rate on loans held by U.S. banks increased to 3.4 percent in the third quarter.

In The News:

NAR - “Nine Consecutive Gains for Pending Home Sales” (12-1-09)

“The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in October, increased 3.7 percent to 114.1 from 110.0 in September, and is 31.8 percent above October 2008 when it was 86.6. The rise from a year ago is the biggest annual increase ever recorded for the index, which is at the highest level since March 2006 when it was 115.2.”

Sacramento Bee – “Most California property tax bills will fall slightly in 2010″ (12-1-09)

“The Board of Equalization said Monday that most California homeowners will see a slight decline in property tax bills, based on the board’s preliminary estimates of deflation at 0.237 percent.”

Housing Wire – “$1trn in Commercial Real Estate Equity Lost, Say Analysts” (12-1-09)

“Property values are down 40% and about $1trn commercial real estate (CRE) equity was lost since the sector peaked in 2007, according to research by Keefe, Bruyette & Woods.”

Housing Wire – “Lend America Out of Business” (12-1-09)

“The FHA’s action prevents Lend America and Ideal from originating and underwriting FHA-insured mortgages or participating in FHA’s single-family insurance program. FHA also charged $512,500 in civil money penalties in the wake of a civil lawsuit that HousingWire previously reported reveals a pattern of mortgage fraud spanning more than 20 years across a number of mortgage firms.”

Housing Wire – “Short Sale Incentives Coming in 2010, Treasury Says” (12-1-09)

“HAFA allows the borrower to receive pre-approved short sale terms before the property is listed and frees them from future liability for the debt. Also, servicers utilizing the program are prohibited from requiring a reduction in the real estate commission agreed to in the listing agreement. The borrower also receives a $1,500 incentive for relocation after the transaction. The servicer receives a $1,000 incentive to cover administration and processing costs, and investors will be paid a maximum of $1,000 for allowing up to $3,000 in short-sale proceeds to be paid out to subordinate lien holders. In total, each transaction under HAFA will cost the Treasury up to $3,500 of incentive payments.”

Housing Wire – “RealtyBid.com Discounts Fees in December” (12-1-09)

“RealtyBid.com, online home auction company, discounted its standard listing fee from $150 to $25 through the end of December. Real estate agents looking to market property listings through an online auction can take advantage of the offer. If the property sells, RealtyBid.com will cut its sales fee, or the buyer’s fee, from 1% to a flat fee of $500.”

Bloomberg - “Commercial Mortgage Defaults at U.S. Banks Reach 3.4%” (12-1-09)

“The commercial mortgage default rate on loans held by U.S. banks more than doubled to 3.4 percent in the third quarter as vacancies rose and rents declined, Real Estate Econometrics LLC said.”

Bloomberg - “Construction Spending in U.S. Unchanged After Falling in Sept.” (12-1-09)

“Construction spending in the U.S. was unchanged in October after declining five straight months as rising office and retail vacancies deterred the building of commercial projects. Spending in September, previously reported as an increase, fell 1.6 percent, according to Commerce Department data released today in Washington. Construction spending declined on office buildings and commercial projects, while homebuilding increased.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, the government announced its plans to spend $800 billion dollars on mortgage-backed securities and consumer-debt securities.  Treasury yields dropped to record lows. Bernanke announced that the federal reserve was considering lowering interest rates.

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 11/6/09

Friday, November 6th, 2009

Today’s News Synopsis:

Fannie recently developed the “Deed-for-Lease” program which allows qualified borrowers to deed their properties back to Fannie and continue to live in the house for up to 12 months. Fannie Mae is asking for $15 billion in support from the Treasury Department. Ronald Pressman from GE Capital Real Estate believes that the commercial real estate market is far from a recovery. The U.S. unemployment rate increased to 10.2 percent in October.

In The News:

Housing Wire – “BarCap Sees ‘Limited Use’ of Fannie’s Deed-for-Lease Program” (11-6-09)

“The Deed-for-Lease (D4L) program allows qualified borrowers to voluntarily deed the property back to Fannie and remain in the home on lease for up to 12 months. It targets borrowers that do not qualify for other workout alternatives like the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP), which allocates federal incentives to servicers that pursue modifications before foreclosure.”

Housing Wire – “Higher Unemployment Means Many More Distressed Properties to Come” (11-6-09)

“The US Conference of Mayors, a nonpartisan organization that represents cities with populations greater than 30,000, is sending out an industry warning that they expect employment rates to continue to climb in 2010, reaching levels as high as 15% in some municipalities. Servicers in these areas should prepare to face a much heavier distressed asset portfolio as borrowers struggle to cope with lose of income, says Dave Gatton, a director at the firm.”

Housing Wire – “Fannie Asks Treasury for $15Bn, May Sell Housing Tax Credits” (11-6-09)

“Financial fallout at mortgage giant Fannie Mae (FNM: 1.0299 -8.04%) continues to develop following the $19.8bn quarterly net loss, with the agency’s conservator confirming Fannie may sell as much as $2.6bn of low-income housing tax credits to investors and is requesting another $15bn in support from the US Treasury Department.”

Housing Wire – “Calif. Commercial Delinquency Rate Drops to 0.23%: CMBA” (11-6-09)

“The delinquency rate for commercial loans in California slipped 3bps from 0.26% to 0.23% in Q309, according to a survey conducted by the California Mortgage Bankers Association (CMBA).”

Housing Wire – “Fed Buys Another $16Bn of Agency MBS” (11-6-09)

“The Federal Reserve Bank of New York bought $16bn of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) from housing finance agencies Freddie Mac (FRE: 1.19 -4.80%), Fannie Mae (FNM: 1.03 -8.04%) and Ginnie Mae in the week ending November 4. The Fed bought $3.27bn from Freddie, $12.55bn from Fannie and $175m from Ginnie. For the first week in months, were no MBS sales listed in the week ending November 4.”

Bloomberg - “Commercial Property ‘Long Way’ From Rebound, GE’s Pressman Says” (11-6-09)

“The U.S. commercial property market is far from recovery and needs job growth, sustained low interest rates and further government support, said GE Capital Real Estate Chief Executive Officer Ronald Pressman. ”

Reuters - “Surge in temp jobs points to stronger U.S. economy” (11-6-09)

“U.S. temporary staffing — historically one of the first areas to show evidence of a jobs recovery — surged in October, adding about 34,000 jobs in a positive sign for the overall economy even as the overall employment rate rose above 10 percent.”

Orange County Register – “1 in 4 Surf City home sales distressed” (11-6-09)

Three charts are displayed which contain data on Huntington Beach listings and escrows.

Inman - “15 best iPhone apps for mobile agents” (11-6-09)

“Home Tracker. You’ve seen a lot of homes and it can make your head spin. Home Tracker keeps track for you. Store information on each property such as address, ZIP code, price and size; add notes; take photos; rate the property condition, location and appeal; star your favorites; map the property; and best of all, e-mail the summary of home tours to your clients.”

Realty Times – “Is Your Agent Experienced in Distressed Properties?” (11-6-09)

“the National Association of Realtors (NAR) is coming to the rescue with real estate agents specifically schooled in those subjects. A new Short Sales and Foreclosure Certification Program (SFR) trains agents how to manage short-sales, foreclosures, and real estate owned (REO or bank owned) transactions, and keeps agents current on national and state-specific information and regulations on these issues.”

Wall Street Journal – “Broader U-6 Unemployment Rate Hits 17.5%” (11-6-09)

“The U.S. jobless rate jumped up 0.4 percentage point to 10.2% in October, the highest level since April 1983. The government’s broader measure of unemployment shot up even more, rising half a point to 17.5%.”

Wall Street Journal – “Real Time Economics” (11-6-09)

“The bad news is that the jobs situation seems to have stalled out after improving dramatically through the summer. Private payroll declines actually widened slightly in September and in October. Thus, while we still strongly believe based on anecdotes, surveys, and other statistics that the labor situation is improving and that job losses will come to an end within a few months, the payroll numbers themselves do not indicate much positive momentum. In contrast to the payroll survey results, the household survey data were unambiguously negative. The unemployment rate surged to 10.2%, as the household gauge of employment plunged by almost 600,000 on top of September’s 785,000 drop. –Stephen Stanley, RBS”

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The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 10/22/09

Thursday, October 22nd, 2009

Today’s News Synopsis:

WSJ reports that home inventories across the nation have decreased.According to FHA, home prices fell .3 percent from July to August. A survey from Point2 Technologies reveals that real estate agents and brokers are less confident in the market than they were in August.

In The News:

DSNews - “TARP Inspector Wants to Subpoena Treasury” (10-22-09)

“Special Inspector General Neil Barofsky lashed out at the U.S. Treasury Department for failing to implement clear recommendations from his office that would improve the program and refusing to come forth with critical details of fund usage. Barofsky even went so far as to threaten to subpoena documents from the Treasury and White House.”

Bank Investment Consultant – “Fannie Mae Offers Hand to Investors” (10-22-09)

“Fannie Mae is replacing a forbearance program for troubled borrowers with one that will make the breaks available to property investors and owners of second homes. In a forbearance, the government-sponsored enterprise reduces the monthly payment on a mortgage for up to six months. The current program only provides this relief for loans on owner-occupied properties.”

Wall Street Journal – “Waiting for the Next McMansion to Drop” (10-22-09)

“The Wall Street Journal’s quarterly survey of housing-market data in 28 major metro areas shows sharp drops in the number of homes listed for sale across the country. But the potential supply of homes is far larger because banks are likely to acquire significant numbers of foreclosed homes in some areas, notably Las Vegas, Atlanta, Detroit, Phoenix, Miami and other parts of Florida, and Sacramento, Calif., over the next few years.”

Sacramento Bee – “Home price index falls 0.3 percent in August” (10-22-09)

“The Federal Housing Finance Agency says prices fell 0.3 percent in August from July. The agency’s index, based on loans owned or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, is 3.6 percent below last year’s levels and 10.7 percent off its peak in April 2007.”

Inman - “Agent, broker confidence slips” (10-22-09)

“Real estate agents and brokers surveyed in September by Point2 Technologies were slightly less confident about the future than they were in August, but remained more optimistic than pessimistic overall. On a scale of one to 10, Point2′s Real Estate Confidence Index recorded a 5.83 reading at the national level in September, down from 5.88 in August. It was the first decline in the index since it was launched in June, the company said.”

Housing Wire – “Looming Refinance Needs Will Pressure CRE Market: RBS” (10-22-09)

“The commercial real estate (CRE) market will not likely post signs of recovery until mid-2010 and faces key challenges ahead, according to RBS Securities.”

Housing Wire – “PNC’s Mortgage Banking Profits Hold Steady at $91m” (10-22-09)

“PNC Financial Services Group (PNC: 50.65 +12.66%) earned net income of $559m, $1 per share, for Q309, compared with net income of $207m, $0.14 per share, in Q209. Mortgage banking revenue stayed even from the previous quarter, but originations plummeted from the year-ago period.”

Housing Wire – “HOPE NOW Pushes HAMP for Unemployed Homeowners” (10-22-09)

“The HOPE NOW Unemployment Committee collaborated with the Obama Administration to develop a new tool to help identify the eligibility of unemployed homeowners to for the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP). The US Treasury Department allocates capped incentives to servicers participating in HAMP to modify loans on the verge of foreclosure. Servicers lower the debt-to-income ratio of a qualified borrower to 31% with a HAMP modification.”

Housing Wire – “IRS Wrongly Gave Homebuyer Tax Credit to Resident Aliens, Minors: Watchdog” (10-22-09)

“The Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration (TIGTA) believes the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) may have paid out millions of dollars in first-time homebuyer tax credits to individuals not eligible to receive the $8,000 credit. Nearly $4m of incorrectly paid credits were due to both alleged fraud and filing errors on claims by 580 taxpayers less than 18 years old.”

Bloomberg - “Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Benefit From Servicing Hedging” (10-22-09)

“Wells Fargo & Co. earned almost a third of its pretax quarterly profit by hedging mortgage- servicing rights, producing gains similar to those that have helped some of the biggest U.S. banks offset weaker consumer- lending businesses. Wells Fargo’s hedges outperformed writedowns it took on the so-called MSRs by $1.5 billion and JPMorgan Chase & Co. came out ahead by $435 million. The two banks, as well as Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc., wrote down MSRs by at least $5 billion in the third quarter as mortgage rates fell by about 0.26 percentage point. ”

Bloomberg - “U.S. Housing to Bottom in March 2010 After 37% Drop” (10-22-09)

“The U.S. housing market will hit bottom by March 2010 as lower-priced properties recover more quickly than expensive homes, First American CoreLogic said”

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126-TNG Radio – Shelley Kaye 6-13-09

Friday, June 12th, 2009

Shelley-Kaye

Shelley Kaye

2009 President, REOMac

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This week Bruce is joined once again by Shelley Kaye, the president of REOMAC. She also works with InSource Financial Services where she handles bulk sale purchases.

Bruce first asks Shelley if lenders generally fix the properties when they sell them. Shelley says that it depends on the market and the lender but usually fixes her properties. She does not want to bring the prices of a neighborhood down; she wants to enhance a neighborhood. She knows a large number of other agents who work with lenders to fix properties and they make a lot of profit that way. When you support the value of a neighborhood, you also enable some people to get a refi instead of losing a property. Everybody wins when people fix properties.

Bruce asks Shelley how REO agents feel about auction companies. For the most part, the auction companies and agents are working in a partnership, and in many cases, the agents are still earning a commission. In the past, if a property went to an auctioneer then an agent would not be paid. The agents do open houses for auction companies, and they bring in buyers. In the 1990s, the agents didn’t make a commission so this time is much better. The auction company couldn’t function as successfully if it weren’t for the agents who are also bringing the buyers.

Bruce asks Shelley how REO agents feel about investors. Most good REO agents have a pool of investors that they work with. The problem that agents have is determining who is an investor and who is not. Real investors are easier to work with because they understand the market place, and they are not unrealistic about property values. Agents like working with investors because they know what they want and they understand how lenders do business. Most investors will close quickly. One of the dilemmas that agents have with wannabe investors is that they do not check up on their properties, they do not understand what it takes to buy an REO from a lender, and they do not understand what they are planning to do with a property. Investors must need to know what they are doing and they must do their homework.

In today’s market, an investor needs to be able to look at a property and quickly determine the repair cost and the appraisal to be competitive, because many properties have multiple offers. They must understand so many facets of the business from how much prices are declining to how much the house will rent for.

Bruce asks Shelley if she thinks that short sales will be more attractive to the lenders now than they were in the past. Shelley thinks that they will be more attracted to short sales, because there is a lot of cost in processing a foreclosure. The biggest problem she sees with this is that loss mitigators are not experienced enough to understand what is occurring in the market place. Time is their biggest enemy.

Bruce asks if loss mitgators, asset managers, and ever really talk before something goes to trustee sale. When Shelley worked at Option 1, she would talk to the loss mitigation department. They had formulas to determine how much they would lose in specific deals. Unfortunately, many of the people who work with loss mitigation do not understand the market.

Bruce says The Norris Group has noticed a big change in opening bids at the trustee sales. They are making more sense. Bruce asks if people often communicate with REO agents, prior to trustee sales, to determine accurate prices before the trustee sale. Shelley says that lenders are always getting a broker price opinion. The biggest problem is that they do not get to see the property, so sometimes people give high bids. Lenders always consult with agents and get a BPO (broker price opinion) of some sort.

Lenders pay around $45 to $50 for a drive by broker price opinion and $75 to $100 for an interior BPO. When agents do drive by BPOs they are determining the price by just looking at the outside of the house, so they do not know what damage there might be inside. Bruce says the paperwork is very much similar to that of an appraiser’s.

Bruce asks Shelley if she has people in her company that are being affected by the new appraisal rules and the Home Valuation Code of Conduct. Shelley says that she does not know if agents are being severely affected by this new rule, but she does know that the closings are taking longer. They are also getting paid half as much for the appraisals when dealing with the new management companies. Shelley is glad that steps are being taken to prevent fraud but she thinks that these new rules are hurting appraisers. It’s important to have arms lengths transactions but the Realtors can sometimes point out subtleties in the market that appraisers wouldn’t get to on their own. Agents can actually help arrive at the proper price. Bruce feels that same about the appraisal issues and how they are affecting investors in the market. Bruce feels that these new rules are unfair because they assume that people who make deals quickly are looking for trouble. In reality, over 90 percent of the people who do their business quickly are doing so simply because they are trying to be efficient and helpful. Shelley agrees with Bruce’s feelings on this.

Bruce saw a chart that showed that 35 percent of Option ARM borrowers are behind in payments, 72 percent of Option ARM owners owe more than their house is worth, and California has 58 percent of all those loans. Shelley says it is astonishing and there are also statistics say that those in loan modification plans often go back into default. Our government really hasn’t considered the whole picture. Bruce feels that there are many homeowners that are making their payment because that’s what they signed up for. But it will be important for prices to be supported within a reasonable amount of time and we won’t be saving everyone. We have had a 70 percent home ownership percentage, but historically that percentage has been around 62 percent. Bruce thinks that the home ownership percentage will go down to 62 percent which will leave a lot of vacant homes. Shelley thinks that we need to turn these empty homes into affordable rental units. If investors are buying these properties then they need to be careful not to raise rent. Bruce says that the market usually controls rental prices. If there are enough rentals then the price will come down, and that is occurring in some areas in California.

Bruce asks Shelley what she thinks about shadow inventory. Shelley says that there is a lot of unlisted inventory out there. A lot of lenders have been told by their management that the burst of the bubble is coming within the next 60 days. She doesn’t know if they have been holding that much of the inventory or if the moratorium has caused the problem. The next 60 days she says she is hearing it’s going to explode.

Bruce says in San Bernardino County, there were 40,000 trustee sales in 2008, and there were about 22,000 sales. Bruce asks if other states are looking at California’s situation and wondering why Californians are so worried. Shelley says that there are some states that have been hit less than others, but for the most part, everyone is feeling the same pain. Bruce asks if California is going to experience more trouble within the next 18 months, and if higher priced inventory will be affected. Shelley says that is true and that some of the higher priced inventory is going into the foreclosure market, and more prime inventory is going into default.

Bruce says he hears advertisements for attorneys every day for loan fraud and workouts. Bruce asks Shelley if lenders are having trouble with people looking for loopholes. She does not know if there are many attorneys looking for loopholes, but there are attorneys looking to stop specific attorneys from doing this.

Bruce asks Shelley if she was president for a year, what national policies she would implement to help housing recover. She would focus on creating jobs so that people can pay for their homes. She thinks that principalities and municipalities need to cooperate with buyers and lenders. Programs need to be set up so that people can work on properties and fix them up. More 40 year mortgages need to be put in place, so that payments become more affordable. She would also want less moratoriums being placed on the market so that the problems can fix themselves. Some people should have never been in homeownership to begin with. More incentives need to given to lenders who work with home owners.

Bruce asks Shelley if it might be good to create a short term policy that would forgive foreclosures faster than before since this scenario got so out of hand. Shelley thinks that would be a good idea because people are losing their good credit. The government should really talk to the industry that’s at work so they understand what’s happening the in marketplace. For more information visit www.reomac.com.

Shelley Kaye recently joined InSource Financial Services, LLC as a Portfolio Acquisitions Specialist, handling bulk sale purchases of REO properties. Prior to joining InSource she was a Servicing Oversight Specialist with ECC Capital and for 11 years a Senior Asset Manager for First Option Asset Management Services, managing a team of associates as well as a multi-state REO portfolio. Before working at FOAMS, she spent seven years at First Central Bank where she was the assistant to the VP of the Servicing Department. She has been a licensed Realtor for over 20 years and sold properties in Southern California prior to entering the mortgage banking field.

Shelley has served on the REOMAC® Board for the past 8 years and participates as a speaker on a variety of panels for many industry events. She has held the offices of Sponsor Chair, Treasurer, Secretary, and Vice President , prior to becoming REOMAC President in 2008.

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125-TNG Radio – Shelley Kaye 6-6-09

Friday, June 5th, 2009

Shelley-Kaye

Shelley Kaye

2009 President, REOMac

 stream

itunes

download

rss

This week Bruce is joined once again by Shelley Kaye, the president of REOMAC. She also works with InSource Financial Services where she handles bulk sale purchases.

Bruce first asks Shelley if lenders generally fix the properties when they sell them. Shelley says that it depends on the market and the lender but usually fixes her properties. She does not want to bring the prices of a neighborhood down; she wants to enhance a neighborhood. She knows a large number of other agents who work with lenders to fix properties and they make a lot of profit that way. When you support the value of a neighborhood, you also enable some people to get a refi instead of losing a property. Everybody wins when people fix properties.

Bruce asks Shelley how REO agents feel about auction companies. For the most part, the auction companies and agents are working in a partnership, and in many cases, the agents are still earning a commission. In the past, if a property went to an auctioneer then an agent would not be paid. The agents do open houses for auction companies, and they bring in buyers. In the 1990s, the agents didn’t make a commission so this time is much better. The auction company couldn’t function as successfully if it weren’t for the agents who are also bringing the buyers.

Bruce asks Shelley how REO agents feel about investors. Most good REO agents have a pool of investors that they work with. The problem that agents have is determining who is an investor and who is not. Real investors are easier to work with because they understand the market place, and they are not unrealistic about property values. Agents like working with investors because they know what they want and they understand how lenders do business. Most investors will close quickly. One of the dilemmas that agents have with wannabe investors is that they do not check up on their properties, they do not understand what it takes to buy an REO from a lender, and they do not understand what they are planning to do with a property. Investors must need to know what they are doing and they must do their homework.

In today’s market, an investor needs to be able to look at a property and quickly determine the repair cost and the appraisal to be competitive, because many properties have multiple offers. They must understand so many facets of the business from how much prices are declining to how much the house will rent for.

Bruce asks Shelley if she thinks that short sales will be more attractive to the lenders now than they were in the past. Shelley thinks that they will be more attracted to short sales, because there is a lot of cost in processing a foreclosure. The biggest problem she sees with this is that loss mitigators are not experienced enough to understand what is occurring in the market place. Time is their biggest enemy.

Bruce asks if loss mitgators, asset managers, and ever really talk before something goes to trustee sale. When Shelley worked at Option 1, she would talk to the loss mitigation department. They had formulas to determine how much they would lose in specific deals. Unfortunately, many of the people who work with loss mitigation do not understand the market.

Bruce says The Norris Group has noticed a big change in opening bids at the trustee sales. They are making more sense. Bruce asks if people often communicate with REO agents, prior to trustee sales, to determine accurate prices before the trustee sale. Shelley says that lenders are always getting a broker price opinion. The biggest problem is that they do not get to see the property, so sometimes people give high bids. Lenders always consult with agents and get a BPO (broker price opinion) of some sort.

Lenders pay around $45 to $50 for a drive by broker price opinion and $75 to $100 for an interior BPO. When agents do drive by BPOs they are determining the price by just looking at the outside of the house, so they do not know what damage there might be inside. Bruce says the paperwork is very much similar to that of an appraiser’s.

Bruce asks Shelley if she has people in her company that are being affected by the new appraisal rules and the Home Valuation Code of Conduct. Shelley says that she does not know if agents are being severely affected by this new rule, but she does know that the closings are taking longer. They are also getting paid half as much for the appraisals when dealing with the new management companies. Shelley is glad that steps are being taken to prevent fraud but she thinks that these new rules are hurting appraisers. It’s important to have arms lengths transactions but the Realtors can sometimes point out subtleties in the market that appraisers wouldn’t get to on their own. Agents can actually help arrive at the proper price. Bruce feels that same about the appraisal issues and how they are affecting investors in the market. Bruce feels that these new rules are unfair because they assume that people who make deals quickly are looking for trouble. In reality, over 90 percent of the people who do their business quickly are doing so simply because they are trying to be efficient and helpful. Shelley agrees with Bruce’s feelings on this.

Bruce saw a chart that showed that 35 percent of Option ARM borrowers are behind in payments, 72 percent of Option ARM owners owe more than their house is worth, and California has 58 percent of all those loans. Shelley says it is astonishing and there are also statistics say that those in loan modification plans often go back into default. Our government really hasn’t considered the whole picture. Bruce feels that there are many homeowners that are making their payment because that’s what they signed up for. But it will be important for prices to be supported within a reasonable amount of time and we won’t be saving everyone. We have had a 70 percent home ownership percentage, but historically that percentage has been around 62 percent. Bruce thinks that the home ownership percentage will go down to 62 percent which will leave a lot of vacant homes. Shelley thinks that we need to turn these empty homes into affordable rental units. If investors are buying these properties then they need to be careful not to raise rent. Bruce says that the market usually controls rental prices. If there are enough rentals then the price will come down, and that is occurring in some areas in California.

Bruce asks Shelley what she thinks about shadow inventory. Shelley says that there is a lot of unlisted inventory out there. A lot of lenders have been told by their management that the burst of the bubble is coming within the next 60 days. She doesn’t know if they have been holding that much of the inventory or if the moratorium has caused the problem. The next 60 days she says she is hearing it’s going to explode.

Bruce says in San Bernardino County, there were 40,000 trustee sales in 2008, and there were about 22,000 sales. Bruce asks if other states are looking at California’s situation and wondering why Californians are so worried. Shelley says that there are some states that have been hit less than others, but for the most part, everyone is feeling the same pain. Bruce asks if California is going to experience more trouble within the next 18 months, and if higher priced inventory will be affected. Shelley says that is true and that some of the higher priced inventory is going into the foreclosure market, and more prime inventory is going into default.

Bruce says he hears advertisements for attorneys every day for loan fraud and workouts. Bruce asks Shelley if lenders are having trouble with people looking for loopholes. She does not know if there are many attorneys looking for loopholes, but there are attorneys looking to stop specific attorneys from doing this.

Bruce asks Shelley if she was president for a year, what national policies she would implement to help housing recover. She would focus on creating jobs so that people can pay for their homes. She thinks that principalities and municipalities need to cooperate with buyers and lenders. Programs need to be set up so that people can work on properties and fix them up. More 40 year mortgages need to be put in place, so that payments become more affordable. She would also want less moratoriums being placed on the market so that the problems can fix themselves. Some people should have never been in homeownership to begin with. More incentives need to given to lenders who work with home owners.

Bruce asks Shelley if it might be good to create a short term policy that would forgive foreclosures faster than before since this scenario got so out of hand. Shelley thinks that would be a good idea because people are losing their good credit. The government should really talk to the industry that’s at work so they understand what’s happening the in marketplace. For more information visit www.reomac.com.

Shelley Kaye recently joined InSource Financial Services, LLC as a Portfolio Acquisitions Specialist, handling bulk sale purchases of REO properties. Prior to joining InSource she was a Servicing Oversight Specialist with ECC Capital and for 11 years a Senior Asset Manager for First Option Asset Management Services, managing a team of associates as well as a multi-state REO portfolio. Before working at FOAMS, she spent seven years at First Central Bank where she was the assistant to the VP of the Servicing Department. She has been a licensed Realtor for over 20 years and sold properties in Southern California prior to entering the mortgage banking field.

Shelley has served on the REOMAC® Board for the past 8 years and participates as a speaker on a variety of panels for many industry events. She has held the offices of Sponsor Chair, Treasurer, Secretary, and Vice President , prior to becoming REOMAC President in 2008.

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113-TNG Radio – Tony Alvarez 3-14-09

Friday, March 13th, 2009

Tony-Alvarez

Tony Alvarez

Expert real estate investor, property manager, and mentor

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Bruce Norris is joined by expert real estate investor, property manager, and mentor, Tony Alvarez.

Bruce starts by asking if teaching will be a new venture for Tony. Tony talks about The Norris Group giving him his first speaking chance several years back and how doing so forced him to think about what he brought to the table as an individual. Tony had to figure out why he was different in the business. Tony talks about how building relationships is so important and how those relationships can build unbelievable business relationships and wealth.

Bruce asks why a Realtor is better off building a relationship with an investor. Tony says many of these REO houses are going into escrow multiple times. Tony has built his relationships by performing. He has never put in an offer to an REO agent he didn’t close if it was accepted. Agents begin to understand he stands for performance. That strong performance gives the agent ammunition for their asset manager and makes his offer stand above the rest.

Tony discusses coming out of bankruptcy and how he started investing in Palmdale. Tony talks about how he gets in the door with REO agents. These REO agents are busy and they can’t stand newbie investors and the amateur mistakes they make. REO agents eventually end up relying and trusting an investor only after they prove they are an asset.

Tony goes over an example of what he had to deal with when starting to work with REOs in the Antelope Valley in the 90s. Tony talks about approaching an REO agent and how he got the door open. One relationship made him millions and he returned the favor when the market changed.

Tony and Bruce discuss trying to make connections with people. Tony says he’s never met an REO agent that was from Mars. They’re people. There’s always a way.

Bruce talks about Tony and why he is so loved. Some people think Tony is the greatest negotiator but Bruce says why he’s so good is because it isn’t the intent. Bruce talks about love and what Tony brings to the table.

Investors have to not only know what is working to make deals in this California real estate market but they also must understand what they bring to the table as individuals. We as individuals must know what we’re good at and why each of us is different so we can use that in our daily lives to impact people around us. Tony put it best: The one who gives the most gets the most.

Tony Alvarez has been a successful Real Estate Investor and Certified General Appraiser in the Southern California area since 1981. Tony has bought, sold and rented hundreds of properties from vacant land to condos, single family residences, and apartments. More recently he is investing in commercial developments in Arizona, Nevada, and Southern California.

As an appraiser Tony worked as a staff appraiser for Great Western and Glendale Federal Bank and is approved by hundreds of Lenders, Insurances Companies as well as Government Agencies.

He has worked for Fanny Mae, Freddie Mac, FHA and the FDIC.

He has an in depth knowledge of the inner workings of Lenders and their REO (foreclosure) departments. Tony’s knowledge of real estate, appraisal, finance, and investing is vast and varied. He brings a unique perspective to the real estate investment community.

Thanks Tony for joining is on the radio show. Best of luck with you training in Los Angeles this weekend. Next week, a very important interview with Joe Magdzriaz from the Appraiser Institute.

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104-TNG Radio – Rick Solis 1-10-09

Friday, January 9th, 2009

Rick Solis

Appraiser and Investor

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Bruce Norris is joined this week by appraiser and investor, Rick Solis.

Rick has been appraising properties since 1989. Rick says it was a perfect time to start because he got to see both cycles. In 1989, you didn’t even need a license. Education, Rick says, has not improved appraisals. Bruce talks about how he got his appraisers license and why. They both say much of the business is street smarts.

Rick got into the business because he purchased a Dave Delgado seminar. He started buying a lot of houses. He realized he needed to know how to evaluate properties.

Bruce asks if appraisers are under pressure to come in at a certain number. Rick says pressure is coming from several sources including agents, buyers, sellers, and banks. From 2004-2006 the pressure was for the appraisers to come in high. Today, banks put appraiser reports through many more hoops. They are looking for something wrong with it and they have review appraisals done. They also use an automated valuation model (AVM) to check numbers. In a down market, the AVM is not an issue. It’s a real problem in an up market. Everyone is just being much more conservative.

Bruce asks Rick how he compares this downturn from the 90s. Rick says this downturn is much worse. There was a more gradual decline over several years in the 90s. Prices are much more erratic in the current market and it varies from month to month.

Rick says areas with lots of new houses, where there are lots of first-time homebuyer inventory, and far out areas seem to have gotten pummeled. Sometimes 60% of the value disappeared. Rick tries to turn down appraisals for irregular products (dirt roads, manufactured homes, etc). It’s very difficult to find comps and arrive at a number.

Rick says in 2009 he expects to see drops in pricing every month for the Inland Empire. Rick says in his area in LA, sales seem to have dropped by 75%. Prices are still coming down there too. Bruce asks Rick what percentage of sales in Victorville were REO. Bruce says 92% of all sales in the area were REO. Reselling in that area would be very difficult. It would be very difficult to get an appraisal too. When 98% are vacant and need work and almost all sales are REO, it’s very difficult to get comps to substantiate a higher price.

Bruce asks what Rick is running into when working with investors. Rick says too many investors are going off the sales price in the MLS. The numbers are incorrect at times because of bad data entry or concessions. Some of the busy REO agents are having assistants enter in the data and they aren’t being careful.

Rick says he uses the MLS but confirms those prices with public record. He uses Real Quest and Dataquick to make sure his numbers are correct. Luckily, data is getting a little better and more complete.

Rick says listings aren’t so much calculated into his appraisals but he does spend more time on pending sales.

Bruce asks if the goal for appraising properties for an investor is different then doing to for retail buyers. Rick says working with buyers is different because the buyer is dictating the price. It becomes its own comp. The investor purchase is more difficult.

Tune in next week as the conversation continue.

Rick is the senior appraiser at Ace Appraisals. Rick has been a full time real estate appraiser since 1989 and a HUD approved appraiser since 1993. He has extensive investor and appraisal experience in residential real estate in the Los Angeles, San Bernardino, Riverside, and Orange County areas.

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102-TNG Radio – The Norris Group 12-27-08

Friday, December 26th, 2008

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Craig Hill

Loan officer

 

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Greg Norris

Property Buyer for TNG

 

 

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Bruce Norris is joined this week by the loan officer for the Norris Group, Craig Hill, and the full-time property buyer for the Norris Group, Greg Norris.

Bruce asks Craig about how long he’s been in the hard money loan business and who the typical borrower was when he first started. Craig talks about buyers he used to work with and how it changed 20 years ago because of rule changes. Craig then talks about how he started working with Bruce and how it made much more sense to lend to investors. Craig says the investor has made not only more sense but are better at making payments.

Bruce then chats with Greg about his past year and a half as a property buyer. Greg talks about his early experience watching trustee sale buyers and what they liked to buy. Greg talks about loans available for investors and how conventional loans are currently at a liit of four.

Bruce asks Craig why lenders are hesitant to lend to investors. Craig says lenders have a false perception that investors are bad to lend to. An investor has more money down and has just as many reason to stay in a home as an owner occupant but lenders don’t want to be involved in that transaction.

Greg talks about how long ago he started making offers straight out of the MLS. Greg says making offers straight out of the MLS was not successful in early 2008 as the lenders wouldn’t budge. In the first six months of 2008, zero deals came out of the MLS, most were coming from auction. Now towards the end of the year, almost all came from the MLS that The Norris Group purchased. Now, The Norris Group is buying about 5% of the offers made.

Craig talks about last minute funding calls and why these investors are in a rush. Craig goes into detail why people with money make these investor loans. Craig says our main target market are seeing loans being made of $85,000 to $120,000 where last year those same homes were being bought for $200,000. There’s been a big change in price. Money sources have become a little nervous.

The perception right now is everyone wants a cookie cutter deal. Everyone wants a $100,000 loan and money sources do not want to be aggressive. Those that want larger loans or are buying in areas out of comfort zone areas will need more in money in the transaction. Money sources in Northern California are wanting to invest in smaller loan amounts and also invest in Southern California where they feel TNG performs best.

Most hard money loans have to have investors put more money into the deals right now. Different sources have gone out the window because of the market.

Bruce asks Greg what he is looking for now as he is making offers on things inside the MLS. Greg says he is looking for anything within a $30,000 range where he thinks he can buy it and make a profit. Sometimes these are short sales and sometimes his offers don’t get accepted for months. Sometimes he gets deals because other investors fall out and he’s the only one left.

At this point, Greg is not being able to talk with people directly often. Right now, banks seem to be dictating to REO agents where before there was much more relationship involved. Greg says he sometimes gets no reaction from REO agents when making offers. Every agent reacts different. Some email when we didn’t get a deal and some do.

Bruce says between 2000-2006 most of our hard money loans came from investors purchasing from people directly. Craig says it’s now changed almost completely where 100% are bought out of the MLS, through auctions, and occasionally from trustee sale and probate. The MLS at this point is creating the most real estate opportunities.

Out of the 40 properties Greg has purchased this year, 30% of the deals were auctions, the rest were from the MLS. Greg is not looking forward to attending auctions. It’s a lot of work for sometimes no results. REDC and Hudson and Marshall have been mixed this year.

Craig says the inventory he is making hard money loans on is different form the 90s. In the 90s there were more 30s and 40s built home located in San Bernardino and Moreno Valley. This time, the investors are being savvier. Investors are buying a little bigger homes and newer homes. The inventory is much better.

Craig talks about why some investors get frustrated because they can’t participate in our money program. Credit issues aren’t the biggest issue. Liquidity is just very important right now. Most people don’t mind hearing “no” because we’re trying to set them up for success. Some investors just don’t understand the process.

Bruce talks about deals Craig turns down and investors coming back later thanking him for now allowing them into the deal. Craig finds that very gratifying. More next week.

Craig Hill has been in the hard money loan business for over 25 years. Greg Norris has been working as the Norris Group’s full time property buyer for going on two years. More information about The Norris Group at thenorrisgroup.com and tngproperties.com.

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96-TNG Radio – John Husing 11-15-08

Friday, November 14th, 2008

 

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John Husing

Inland Empire Economist

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Bruce Norris is joined this week by Inland Empire Economist Dr. John Husing. Bruce asks John if we’re facing the biggest mess he’s ever seen since he’s been an economist. John says it’s the worst mess he’s seen in his life.

John talks about how we got here. In 2004 the real estate market detached from reality. The housing shortage created unbelievable demand creating massive price increases. Investors came into the picture. Prices started increasing even more since they tied up supply. It had nothing to do with real supply and demand issues. The creative financing made it even worse.

Bruce brings up that the same financing was available to consumers just as well as it was for investors. The consumer too became the speculator.

Bruce asks if the Feds are taking the correct steps to fix the problem. John thinks they haven’t fixed the fundamental problems. John says all homes bought in 2004-2007 are upside down. John says it’s one third of the market. That does not include those that used their home as a piggy bank and refinanced.

Bruce asks if foreclosure moratoriums have worked in the past. John thinks it’s just a delay. There are three parts to a loan: the principal, interest rates and the terms. Ultimately it’s about the principal. The mortgage backed securities market is where it’s getting held up.

Bruce talks about some for these solutions and how they only apply for those that have the adjustable loans and how that doesn’t fair well for those that didn’t participate in those programs.

John thinks we’re only about one third through the houses that are upside down and that doesn’t include people who refinanced. If the price gets down far enough, they could just walk away anyway.

Bruce asks if commercial areas are affected by residential. John says the office market was the third tightest office market in the US because many firms were moving here because the size and growth of our economy. There was a subsequent boom in commercial building. We’ve gone from 7% vacancy to 19%. There’s more being finished so it will bring it over 20%.

Retail sales have plunged due to unemployment in residential building in the Inland Empire (Riverside, Moreno Valley, San Bernardino, Corona, Perris). We have a 10% decline in sales so now the shopping malls are being affected. General Growth, who owns several shopping malls, might go under. Their stock price has been hit hard.

John thinks we’ll see a few more large retail stores go under. Numerous furniture stores are already out of business. The auto industry is getting hit hard but that’s part of an industry issue that’s ongoing.

Bruce asks John about the cities in California and if they will be dealing with difficult issues in their budget as real estate taxes take a big hit. John says cities will be affected. The biggest item in the discretionary budget is retail sales. When sales go down, that makes things difficult.

Bruce asks about the ramifications of when cities go bankrupt and who ends up holding the bag. John talks about damaged credit and investors not getting paid. The typical investor in bonds includes pension funds. Bonds are typically considered a secure and safe investment. Triple A has really been misleading as many of these investments have not turned out to be safe at all.

As real estate supply increases, the supply of homes has dropped significantly. Demand has gone up but the supply is still too strong. The supply is what has to be addressed. As long as the supply still is too high, we won’t see new homes being built as it won’t pencil. Locally, if builders get the land for free, builders still can’t build because the fees and materials are still too expensive. Homes are going for less than replacement values. So many industries are connected to the building industry. 95% of all job losses in the Inland Empire can be traced back to the residential construction industry. The unemployment rate in the inland empire has reached 9.1%.

John doesn’t think high unemployment is causing too much out migration. John thinks nationally we are having a difficult time so there are no real safe havens.

Bruce asks if California has ever seen 12% unemployment. John says no and the worst for the Inland Empire area was 1993. That was localized because of the space/defense industry job losses.

Commercial construction is now not penciling. The projects currently underway will be finished. John doesn’t think another office space will be build until 2013-2014. We have to absorb around 20% vacancy rate.

With the US going into recession, world trade has slowed down substantially and directly affects the Inland Empire because of lack of warehousing and distribution space needed. Construction will now stop in the industrial market which is typically very strong.

Bruce asks who the typical lender is in the commercial market. Local banks and pension plans are behind some of these projects. Bruce feels they will own a lot of real estate in the coming years. This is happening in Orange County as well because the Financial Industry was hit so hard.

Technically many of these buildings are still leased but are now vacant. They don’t show up as vacancy. Therefore the availability rate is a better indicator John says.

Bruce asks about apartments. John says the coastal markets have the best chance of doing well. In the Inland Empire it hasn’t shown up as a bright spot. John thinks many people are moving closer to their jobs. Vacancies have actually increased. It’s a market we don’t have good data on.

Bruce and John discuss about the oil market. John says lower gas prices are like a tax decrease which helps in the short term. In the long term, projects we were hoping was going to happen are now on hold (alternative energy projects). Bruce talks about the how this is a repeat of the 80s.

John talks about an oil set price solution and how it might help.

Bruce talks about the new regulations and how REO agents are going to adjust. They’ve laid off staff knowing they will have to hire them back to handle the huge volume coming shortly. John really thinks we need to find out how can we get restructuring on the underlying loan on the mortgage backed securities. See Dr. John Husing on his website at johnhusing.com.

In August 2006, Dr. John Husing was listed by the L.A. Times Magazine as one of the 100 most powerful people shaping life in Southern California. He is a leading authority on the impact of the goods movement industry on the region, and in particular its role as a provider of upward economic mobility to blue collar workers. He has just completed major studies on the impact of the proposed Clean Truck Program at ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach and has recommended some changes in strategy.

In addition, Dr. Husing has spent decades studying the city & county economies of Southern California with a specialty on the Inland Empire. This research began when he began working on his doctoral thesis at Claremont Graduate University in 1964. For the past 43 years, Dr. Husing has conducted extensive research plus interviews with executives and entrepreneurs to understand the forces shaping Southern California. He has a deep understanding of our political process, having managed over 100 partisan and non-partisan campaigns. Today, he uses his extensive knowledge of the region and his political experience to explain the economy to business leaders and policy makers throughout the Southland.

Privately, John Husing enjoys life as an adventurer, taking treks into uncharted territories as well as traveling to 52 different countries. In recent years, he has twice entered the unexplored jungles of NW New Guinea to make first contact with previously undiscovered stone-aged tribes. His last trip was trekking over the Himalayas from Nepal into Tibet. Closer to home, Dr. Husing is an amateur genealogist with his American roots traced back 12 generations to Robert Fuller and his family on the Mayflower.

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45-TNG Radio – Steve Silva 12-8-07

Friday, December 7th, 2007

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Steve Silva

REO Agent, Market Point Realty Services

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Bruce Norris is joined by REO agent and owner of Market Point Realty, Steve Silva. Steve and Bruce talk about how busy Steve has quickly become, how fast the market has changed compared to the 90s, the willingness of lenders to work out deals with borrowers, why the borrower and lender can’t seem to make it work, how the chain of command has made things worse, inventory this cycle compared to the last downturn, the new phenomenon of builders packing up and waiting for the market to return, the requirements of being an REO agent, what an REO agent is very busy doing these days, the REO process, why comparable sales aren’t always a good benchmark to use when deciphering real value, vacancy rates, and the recent purchase of an auction property that was Steve’s listing that he’s managed for almost one year and the journey he took with the bank.

Listen to Show

http://www.thenorrisgroup.com/

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