Servicers made over 120,000 proprietary loan modifications in July, and 36,695 HAMP modifications. Pending home sales increased 5.2 percent in July, according to the NAR. MBA reports 30+ day commercial delinquencies increased to 8.22 percent in the second quarter. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey shows mortgage rates dropped again to a rate of 4.32%.

In The News:

The Press Enterprise – “New ways of viewing the housing meltdown” (9-1-10)

“At a meeting last night of the Inland Empire Investors, Norris said the federal government’s apparent agreement to allow banks to delay foreclosing on homes where the owners have ceased paying their mortgages for months on end is probably helping to hold up the economy. After all, the money that isn’t paying mortgages is going into the homeowners’ pockets and being spent on goods and services. Ironic, huhn?”

Mortgage Orb – “Proprietary Mods More Than Triple HAMP Mods” (8-31-10)

“Servicers completed more than 120,000 proprietary loan modifications in July – more than three times the number of mods completed through the federal Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP), HOPE NOW reports. As reported by U.S. Treasury Department, servicers executed 36,695 HAMP modifications in July.”

Mortgage News Daily – “HUD Secretary Tiptoes Around Another Tax Credit, Pushes Balanced Housing Policy” (8-30-10)

“Donovan said that the dip in house sales in July was not unexpected because it would mark the end of the homebuyers’ tax credit that had been successful in spurring those sales. But, he said, the numbers were clearly worse than expected. The Secretary said, in response the Administration would be launching two additional critical tools in the next few weeks. The first will be an FHA refinancing effort to help borrowers who are underwater in their homes, the second is an emergency homeowners’ loan program to help unemployed borrowers to in their homes.”

NAR - “Pending Home Sales Rise” (9-2-10)

“The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator, rose 5.2 percent to 79.4 based on contracts signed in July from a downwardly revised 75.5 in June, but remains 19.1 percent below July 2009 when it was 98.1. The data reflects contracts and not closings, which normally occur with a lag time of one or two months.”

Mortgage Bankers Association – “MBA: Commercial Delinquencies Up for CMBS, Flat for Banks in Second Quarter” (9-2-10)

“Between the first quarter and second quarter 2010, the 30+ day delinquency rate on loans held in CMBS rose 1.39 percentage points to 8.22 percent. The 60+ day delinquency rate on loans held in life company portfolios decreased 0.02 percentage points to 0.29 percent. The 60+ day delinquency rate on multifamily loans held or insured by Fannie Mae rose 0.01 percentage points to 0.80 percent. The 60+ day delinquency rate on multifamily loans held or insured by Freddie Mac increased 0.03 percentage points to 0.28 percent. The 90+ day delinquency rate on loans held by FDIC-insured banks and thrifts remained unchanged at 4.26 percent. ”

Inman - “Communities get ‘First Look’ at many REOs” (9-2-10)

“Federal housing officials have reached an agreement with mortgage lenders that will give nonprofit organizations and state and local governments right of first refusal to purchase foreclosed homes in certain targeted neighborhoods. Lenders participating in the ‘National First Look Program’ represent about 75 percent of the real estate owned (REO) marketplace, the Department of Housing and Urban Development announced Wednesday.”

Housing Wire – “Weekly jobless claims down 1.25% to 472,000″ (9-2-10)

“The Department of Labor said Thursday seasonally-adjusted initial claims fell to 472,000 for the week ended Aug. 28, down from an upwardly revised 478,000 for the previous week. The consensus estimate of analysts surveyed by Briefing.com expected claims to drop to 475,000 last week.”

Housing Wire – “Freddie 30-year FRMs set record low at 4.32%” (9-2-10)

“The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported the average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) at 4.32% with an average 0.7 origination point for the week ending Sept. 2, down from last week’s average of 4.36% and a year ago, when the average was 5.08%. This is the lowest rate the survey has recorded since its inception in 1971.”

Housing Wire – “Bernanke says stopping housing bubble was not an option” (9-2-10)

“Speaking before the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission this morning in Washington, Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke said if steps could have been taken three years ago to stop the bubble in the economy, which eventually lead to today’s recession, it would not have been a prudent decision to do so.”

Housing Wire – “OCC: lending standards loosen somewhat from year earlier” (9-2-10)

“The 2010 survey of credit underwriting practices by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency showed 65% of banks tightened standards for commercial products and 74% tightened up retail lending. The survey measures the most-common types of credit offered by 51 of the largest national banks for the 12 months ended March 31. The value of the loans surveyed was $4 trillion, or more than 93% of all outstanding loans in the national banking system, according to the OCC.”

Housing Wire – “Serious HFA delinquencies decline in Q110: S&P” (9-2-10)

“Overall delinquency rates for HFA loans remained high, increasing 1.67% between Q409 and Q110 to 6.05%; however, seriously delinquent HFA loans decreased to 6.05% from 6.57%.”

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor event calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

The MBA’s weekly survey shows mortgage applications increased 2.7% this week. SB1275, the foreclosure/modification bill, was rejected by congress in a 36-30 vote. Fannie Mae’s new rule regarding appraisal cutting takes effect today. Construction spending decreased 1 percent in July, according to the Commerce Department.

In The News:

Mortgage Bankers Association – “Mortgage Applications Increase as Rates Hit New Low in MBA Weekly Survey” (9-1-10)

“The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 27, 2010.  The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 2.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.  On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 2.3 percent compared with the previous week.”

Reuters - “Loan picture improves but troubles remain: FDIC” (9-1-10)

“The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp revealed some encouraging figures about the bank industry, saying the sector earned $21.6 billion during the quarter largely due to banks putting away less money to cover expected loan losses. During the first quarter, the industry earned $17.8 billion.”

San Francisco Chronicle – “Assembly rejects foreclosure/modification bill” (9-1-10)

“SB1275, which was rejected 36-30 late Monday, would have required lenders to provide homeowners with a fully considered loan modification decision prior to foreclosing. Unlike federal initiatives, it would have given homeowners the right to sue the lender if that process did not occur.”

Housing Wire – “Fannie’s appraisal cutting ban takes effect” (9-1-10)

“Fannie Mae’s new policy to reduce appraisal cutting takes effect today. If a lender is trying to sell the GSE a loan, they are now prohibited from changing the market value of a home on the request form. Fannie Mae said Tuesday if a loan servicer does not properly handle a troubled mortgage loan in a timely manner, it will demand compensation from the servicer for the mortgage.”

Housing Wire – “Fed buys $900 million of Treasury debt” (9-1-10)

“Dealers offered to sell the Fed $25.79 billion in debt. The three slices of debt purchased by the Fed include $131 million maturing Nov. 15, 2012; $345 million maturing Dec. 15, 2012; and $424 million maturing Jan. 31, 2013. At its meeting from earlier this month, the Federal Open Markets Committee directed the New York Fed to maintain the total face value of domestic securities held in the system open market account at about $2 trillion.”

Housing Wire – “DebtX July CRE loan value up to 79.4%” (9-1-10)

“The value of commercial loans priced by The Debt Exchange in July that collateralize commercial mortgage-backed securities rose to 79.4% of the original balance. DebtX said the value is up from 77.4% in June, marking the fourth-straight month of increases, and is higher than the 71.1% for the year-ago July. The values are based on loans priced by DebtX. In July, the company priced 57,801 CRE loans with an aggregate principle balance of $679.5 billion that collateralize 623 CMBS trusts.”

Bloomberg - “Construction Spending in U.S. Declined Twice as Much as Forecast in July” (9-1-10)

“The 1 percent drop brought spending to $805.2 billion, the lowest level in a decade, after a revised 0.8 percent drop in June that wiped out a previously estimated gain, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. Spending on federal government projects fell by the most in a year.”

Bloomberg - “Real Estate Premium Near Record to U.S. Bonds Signals Time to Buy Property” (9-1-10)

“Capitalization rates, a measure of real estate yields, averaged 7.22 percent in the second quarter, based on an index calculated by the National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries. That was 429 basis points, or 4.29 percentage points, higher than the yield on 10-year government bonds as of June 30, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It’s about 475 basis points higher than Treasury yields as of yesterday.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, the NAR reported that pending home sales increased 3.2 percent in one month. The average price of homes bought with mortgages funded by Freddie Mac increased 1.7% during the 2nd quarter of 2009. A wildfire north of Los Angeles threatened more than 12,000 homes and forced the evacuation of more than 4,300 people.

According to Capital Economics, business investment rose 17% during the second quarter. Multiple forecasters suspect the housing market and the economy are in a double dip. Zillow reports that 18.2% of all O.C. homes sold for a loss. The Case-Shiller 20-city home price index shows prices increased 1% from May to June.

In The News:

Housing Wire – “Dallas Fed says fiscal stimulus is a quick fix, not a permanent solution” (8-30-10)

“The fiscal stimulus plan, formally known as the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, signed into law by President Obama in February 2009 has succeeded in everything it planned to do, in theory. It designated the majority of funding toward the people who need it the most and at the most crucial time they need it. But Jason Saving, senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, doubts the plan is showing the anticipated results in practice.”

Housing Wire – “Restricted credit for small businesses driving delinquencies up” (8-30-10)

“According to Capital Economics’ U.S. Quarterly Outlook, business investment in Q210 rose 17%. However, Moody’s Analytics reported last week that commercial mortgage-backed security delinquencies spiked since after Sept. 2008, passing 23% by March 2010.”

Housing Wire – “Home values drop 0.2% from a year ago: Freddie Mac” (8-30-10)

“Home values in the U.S. fell 0.2% in the second quarter of 2010 from the same quarter last year, according to the Freddie Mac Conventional Mortgage Home Price Index (CMHPI).”

Orange County Register – “1-in-5 O.C. homes selling at a loss” (8-30-10)

“While 18.2% of all homes sold for a loss, that’s down about 2.5% from the same period a year earlier. Zillow spokeswoman Jill Simmons said that losing deals in O.C. peaked at 25% in February 2009, the month after median home prices hit bottom.”

Orange County Register – “Apartment occupancy up in first half of year” (8-30-10)

“A survey of large apartment managers indicated that U.S. apartment occupancy has recovered steadily throughout the first half of 2010, following more than two years of decreasing occupancy.”

Orange County Register – “Realtors report increase in house supply” (8-30-10)

“Steve Thomas of Altera Real Estate reported that the supply of unsold homes on the Orange County market increased to 11,650, up from 7,300 in January. Still, at 7.2 months, O.C.’s July inventory is below a countywide average of eight months dating back to the early 1990s.”

Associated Press - “Home prices rise in 17 cities in June” (8-31-10)

“The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index released Tuesday posted a 1 percent increase in June from May and was up 4.2 percent from a year ago. Home prices nationally were up 4.8 percent in the second quarter compared with the first quarter. That was largely because buyers could take advantage of government tax credits of up to $8,000.”

Inman - “Appraisers publish homebuying guide” (8-31-10)

“A new homebuying guide offers consumers advice on timing their purchase, selecting a real estate agent, and choosing the best home on the market from the ‘uniquely unbiased perspective’ of a real estate appraiser, according to its publisher, the Appraisal Institute. Because appraisers are not paid by sales commissions, ‘they have the unbiased perspective needed to help homebuyers weigh their options carefully, make logical decisions and effectively navigate the sales negotiation and mortgage application processes,’ the Appraisal Institute said in announcing the publication of the 190-page book.”

Housing Wire – “FDIC bank ‘problem list’ hits highest point since 1993″ (8-31-10)

“The number of banks on the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s (FDIC) ‘Problem List’ rose to 829, the highest level since March 1993, according to second-quarter earnings released today. The 829 figure is up from 775 problem banks in Q110 and accompanies a total of 45 failed FDIC insured banks for the second quarter.”

Housing Wire – “More borrowers refinance to shorter FRMs with higher monthly payments: CoreLogic” (8-31-10)

“An increasing number people are choosing to pay off their mortgage loans in a shorter time period, according to data provided by CoreLogic. The data shows at 26% of all loans, or 252,600 loans, were refinanced to a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM), up from 18.5% in 2009 and 16.3% in 2008. In 2007, only 9.4% of loans were refinanced to a 15-year FRM.”

Housing Wire – “Consumer confidence rises in August, but conditions weaken” (8-31-10)

“An improved short-term outlook boosted consumer confidence for the first time in two months in August but the average American’s take on current economic conditions continued to weaken during the month, according to the private research firm The Conference Board. The board’s consumer confidence index for August was 53.5, topping the consensus analysts’ estimate of 50.5, according to Thomson Reuters, and up from a revised July figure of 51.”

Bloomberg – “Home Prices Probably Cooled, U.S. Consumer Sentiment Languished” (8-31-10)

“‘The housing market is in the midst of a double dip, with sales declining and prices likely to,’ said Guy LeBas, chief fixed-income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC in Philadelphia.”

Realty Times – “Real Estate Outlook: Mixed Figures” (8-31-10)

“Affordability is another key area where things have been slowly improving with little attention. The Wells Fargo-National Association of Home Builders ‘housing opportunity index’ — which looks at home prices, mortgage rates and what median-income families can afford to buy — is at a near record high point. Thanks to 30-year mortgage rates in the mid-four percent range, 72 .3 percent of median-income American families can now afford to buy the median-priced house. Historically that number has stayed in the low 60 percent range, and sometimes slipped below 50 percent.”

Realty Times – “American Savings” (8-31-10)

“Nowadays, the average American has 3.5 open credit cards, with an average household carrying credit card debt equaling $15,788 (Federal Reserve). And on that they pay an average of nearly 15 percent interest!”

Realty Times – “When Should an HOA Be Able to Restrict an Owner’s Right to Rent Out His Unit” (8-31-10)

“Is it fair for an HOA (Homeowner Association) to prohibit or restrict a unit owner from renting out his property? Should there be a law about this? In California, these issues are currently being argued in both the legislature and the courts. In some other states the issues may already be settled; in others the debate is no doubt going on.”

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor event calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

Nearly 900,000 loans that were current at the beginning of this year are now over 60 days delinquent or in foreclosure as of July. GDP growth in the U.S. slowed to an annual rate of 1.6% in the second quarter. Commercial property sales totaled $8.7 billion in July.

In The News:

Orange County Register – “Californians feeling a little rosier” (8-27-10)

“Californians are feeling a little better about the economy now, although their optimism about the future has dimmed, according to Chapman University’s August consumer confidence survey. The school’s California Composite Index of Consumer Confidence, conducted the first three weeks of August, rose to 84.2 this month from 82.7 in May — the fourth consecutive increase in the index.”

San Francisco Chronicle – “California foreclosure bill is losing steam” (8-27-10)

“SB1275 would require lenders to provide homeowners with a fully considered decision on a loan modification prior to starting foreclosure. The bill addresses what some say has become a far too common phenomenon for homeowners who are delinquent on their mortgages: While negotiating a loan modification, their lender forecloses. The proposed rules would allow the homeowner to sue if that occurs.”

Housing Wire - “Nearly 1m More Mortgages Go From Current to Delinquent: LPS” (8-26-10)

“Almost 900,000 loans that were current at the beginning of the year are at least 60 days delinquent or in foreclosure as of July, according to the July 2010 month-end report released by Lender Processing Services’(LPS). Although delinquency volume fell 2.3% month-over-month in July to 9.3%, it remains near historically elevated levels — and record high numbers of delinquent loans are still entering the system, according to LPS. The volume of delinquencies increased 1.4% year-over-year.”

Housing Wire – “Q2 GDP revised to annual rate of 1.6% growth, imports rose 32.4%” (8-27-10)

“Second-quarter economic growth in the US slowed to an annual rate of 1.6%, which is slightly better than what analysts were projecting but down from prior Commerce Department estimates.”

Housing Wire – “Bernanke outlines three options for additional economic stimulus” (8-27-10)

“Bernake said that the zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) is unlikely to change in the coming months. He also doesn’t see any short-term risk of deflation. However, federal economic stimulus can only drive recovery temporarily. For a sustained expansion to take hold, growth in consumer spending and business fixed investment needs to come more into focus, he said.”

Housing Wire – “Fitch expects to keep downgrading CMBS through 2012″ (8-27-10)

“Downgrades on commercial mortgage-backed securities are expected throughout the next one to two years, according to Fitch Ratings’ managing director Mary MacNeill. She said this based on the approximately 1,900 bonds, a total of $71bn, that Fitch lists with negative future outlooks.”

Housing Wire – “Commercial real estate gets boost in July from strong office demand: RCA analytics” (8-27-10)

“July was the second most active month in commercial property sales this year, according to a Real Capital Analytics (RCA) report released today. Sales totaled $7.8bn, almost double the volume of July 2009 commercial real estate (CRE) sales.”

Housing Wire – “Fannie Mae July mortgage portfolio up 4.1% from year earlier, prices two-year deal” (8-27-10)

“Fannie Mae’s mortgage portfolio through July is up 4.1% from the year ago yet down somewhat from June, and the GSE issued nearly half the mortgage-backed securities during the month than in did last July. Fannie ended July with gross holdings of nearly $812 billion. That figure stood at $770.4 billion last year and $817.8 billion in June.”

Bloomberg – “Banks Need New Capital on Housing Dip, Whitney Says” (8-27-10)

“U.S. banks need more capital to withstand a renewed drop in the housing market, according to analyst Meredith Whitney. Banks aren’t prepared for a ‘double-dip’ in housing, which ‘it looks like we are having,’ Whitney said today on Bloomberg Radio”

Christopher Thornberg Founder and Principle of Beacon Economics (Full Bio)

September 17^th, 2010, The Norris Group returns with its award winning event I Survived Real Estate 2010. The Norris Group has assembled an incredible line up of industry experts to discuss the state of REO from the inside. Topics will include regulatory intervention and aftermath, bulk buying, myths and facts, and opportunities emerging for real estate professionals. 100 percent of the proceeds support the Orange County affiliate of Susan G. Komen for the Cure. This event would not be possible without generous help from the following platinum partners: Foreclosure Radar and Sean O’Toole, the San Diego Creative Real Estate Investors Association and Bill Tan, Investors Workshops and Shawn Watkins and Angel Bronsgeest, Invest Club for Women and Iris Veneracion and Bobby Alexander, Claudia Buys Houses, The Business Press, Frye Wiles, MVT Productions, and White House Catering.

This week Bruce is joined by Christopher Thornberg. Christopher is the founding principle of Beacon Economics, and is widely considered to be one of California’s leading economic forecasters. He is an expert in economic forecasting, regional development, real estate dynamics and labor markets. He was one of the earliest and most adamant predictors of the housing crash and the recession that followed. In 2008, he was appointed chief economist for the California State Controller as well as the Controller’s Council of Economic Advisors. He serves on the advisor board of Paulson & Company Inc., one of Wall Street’s most successful hedge funds. Dr. Thornberg holds a PhD in business economics from the Anderson school of UCLA, and a BS in business administration from the state university of New York at Buffalo.

Public sentiment tends to wander between optimistic and pessimistic. No one wants to believe that this recovery might be too slow. Instead, people either hope for a rapid recovery, or they panic over a double dip. Earlier in the year, people were far too optimistic about a rapid recovery, and now they are in a state of unwarranted pessimism. Thornberg does not believe that either of those beliefs are true. He believes that slow growth is most likely going to occur.

Expectations can have an economic impact. Forecasters tend to think that the stock market is a leading indicator of the economy. Paul Samuelson once said “The stock market has predicted 9 out of the last 5 recessions.” We must remember that when we see market swings, it has a material impact on the economy. When the market dumps 15 percent, you are literally talking about a couple trillion dollars in wealth disappearing from the U.S. economy. That does have an influence on spending, particularly at the top end of the income scale. From that perspective, unwarranted worries can create a self fulfilling prophecy and slow the economy.

Over the last 20 years, we have seen unprecedented volatility in the equity markets. We would help ourselves by putting in some rules to dampen that volatility. Thornberg describes the problem as “the tail controlling the economic dog”.

GDP growth in the 90s was caused by stocks. In 2000, it was from real estate equity withdrawal and profits. Currently, our limited growth seems to come from stimulus money. Thornberg does not believe there will be any sort of big driver, and that is part of the reason we will have a slow recovery.

In the mid 70s, there was a consumer let down with the oil shock. Consumers responded to the loss of jobs, high energy prices, and the overall pessimism by cutting back on spending, and that caused a down turn. At the back end of that down turn, consumers who were under-spending started to ramp up their income. They then bought the car they would have bought during the down turn plus another one. That caused a huge surge in consumer spending growth.

Similarly, in the 2001 down turn, we saw a cycle in business spending. Business spending was very high, and then it collapsed. When business spending came back in 2002, we pulled out of the down turn and we got back to normal growth in 2003.

This time, there is no single great source that will cause us to bounce back. The economy was vastly overheated in 2008, and the pain of the down turn was severe, because the pull back occurred in multiple markets at one time. The government got massively involved in both monetary and fiscal policy. In their attempt to stabilize things, they prevented our imbalances from returning to a steady state.

Consumer spending should represent about 80 percent of income, and the other 20 percent should go to savings, taxes and a couple other things. In the midst of the asset bubble, we went from 80 to 84 percent. That extra 4 percent represents approximately half a trillion dollars in excess spending. Savings rates have popped back up in the midst of the crisis, which is good, but the pain of that decline in consumer spending was profound on the economy. As a result, part of the stimulus package was a huge cut in taxes. Right now, Americans are the lowest tax rate in 65 years. This has steadied consumer spending at 82 percent of income. The government is running a deficit of $1.4 trillion per year. At some point, the government will have to raise taxes. When they raise taxes, consumers are going to have to cut back on spending, and that will slow the economy.

We have a lot of deleveraging going on. 23 percent of Riverside is not making a house payment. Because so many people aren’t making their house payments, Bruce believes that people will have plenty of money to spend. Thornberg disagrees, because he does not feel that the money saved from not paying mortgages will amount to that much. Mortgage payments in the U.S. amount to 15 percent of income. Thornberg believes the non-payment of mortgages only adds up to .5 percent of personal income. That is a much smaller number than what happens to personal income as a result of the rise and fall of the unemployment rate.

Bruce explains that in California, a house payment typically represents 40% of someone’s gross. When they don’t make mortgage payments, that saves money, and that fuels GDP. Thornberg understands this, but 1/3 of homeowners in California homeowners own their house free and clear. Of the 2/3rds that are left, the majority are still making their payments. You only have 10 percent of the people in the state that aren’t making their payments. Thornberg does believe that this will make a small difference in the economy, but it is not as significant as people make it out to be.

Bruce asks, “What does seeing a 2.6 10-year T-build tell you?” Thornberg laughs and exclaims that the t-builds are in a bubble. You got to call it as you see it. Sometimes that works and sometimes it doesn’t. A few years ago, Thornberg claimed the housing market was going to crash, and he was right. One of the worst forecasts Thornberg ever made happened 3 months ago when he claimed that interest rates would never go lower. Thornberg has seen some crazy things happen lately. He never could have forecasted this. He believes these things have been driven by worries about sovereign debt in Europe, and a potential for a double dip. This is why Bruce asked his question about Thornberg’s expectations for the t-build, because people’s fears have skewed a lot of categories.

The raw ratio of prices to income will show you that we have not seen a level of retraction that brings us back to the levels we were at in 2000. Prices are still high in comparison to income, but once you adjust for interest rates, affordability levels have never been this great. We have never seen such an affordable housing market when considering current interest rates. Thornberg does not believe that the current interest rates will be maintained. They are going to rise, but he wonders when they will rise and how fast they will rise. If we are on the path to recovery, we could have problems if the credit bubble pops rapidly. If interest rates increase 4.5% to 6.5% in 6 months, then it will severely damage the housing market.

Fannie Mae is planning to hire 1,000 REO agents in Southern California. This tells Bruce that Fannie intends to release inventory; perhaps as soon as the 4^th quarter. FHA has 73,000 REOs and 555,000 people that are 90 days late. There are a lot of properties that the bank has not released, but we also have to be concerned about the properties that the banks are not foreclosing on yet. There are probably 4 to 5 million homeowners that are behind on their payments.

Because affordability is so good right now, there will probably be some demand for the shadow inventory. One thing that distinguishes California from states live Nevada, Florida and Arizona is the fact that we did not over build. Nevada and Florida have years of home supply.

Rental vacancies typically stay high after a recession, but vacancies are actually starting to drop quite quickly, especially in California. Thornberg does not believe there will be enough inventory in California, so when the shadow inventory gets released, it will probably be easily picked up. Thornberg believes we will have a stronger housing market over the next couple years because of the inventory levels in relation to the population. It surprised Bruce to hear Thornberg speak so positively about the housing market.

Bruce and Thornberg do not believe we have pent-up demand, but Thornberg does believe that we have a lack of overall supply. When you look at permits over the past 20 years, the numbers show that we have not built enough housing relative to the population growth since 1995. Even in the midst of the bubble, Thornberg believes we were only building an amount that was appropriate for our population growth.

The builders do not have many vacant unsold homes right now, but their competition, which is an REO, is going to be much to competitive. This competition will force them to build smaller houses. Going forward, Bruce believes that vacant homes are going to increase a tremendous amount. Thornberg does not believe prices will come back a lot.

The kind of building going on right now is on the basis of already finished lots. The inventory of finished but unused lots is disappearing rapidly. In the peak of the housing bubble, local economies ramped up fees. Given what people were willing to pay, there were enormous profits to be made in the sale of a new home. Now that the bubble is gone, cities need to reduce their fees, but they probably won’t. Right now, local governments have a lot of pressure placed on them because of the down turn in revenues. Thornberg believes we will have crowded housing, because many people will not be able to purchase new property due to the excessive fees.

In a down turn, people tend to start living together rather than moving out. This is actually starting to change, which is part of the reason why apartment vacancies are going down. We are not in a strong recovery, but it has been a year since the recession ended. Things have stabilized, and fears are beginning to lift.

Overall, jobs are down right now, but that is mainly due to losses in the public sector. Construction jobs actually bounced a decent amount from June to July. Thornberg does not believe the construction industry will come roaring back to what is was like 5 or 6 years ago, but we are seeing more stability in that sector.

Here are the pros and cons of our current situation: On the con side, we still have problems in the housing market. Many people are not making payments and many are underwater. California has some of the worst unemployment rates, which means we have more to recover from. On the pro side, prior to this down turn, this state was driven by internal demand. This means that our demand was coming from consumers with excessive amounts of false housing equity. At the same time, our external sources of growth were getting hammered. The dollar was over-valued and housing was too expensive, which made it hard to run a business here. Those internal sources of demand will not come back. On the other hand, with a weaker U.S. dollar and cheaper housing, other things will begin to improve. Despite our high unemployment rate, people are beginning to migrate back to California.

The percentage of homeownership is probably headed down. Thornberg does not believe that this is a real concern. He does not believe there are any particular benefits for owning vs renting.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

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Today’s News Synopsis:

The MBA’s second quarter survey shows the delinquency rate for mortgage loans on residential properties dropped to 9.85 percent. Freddie Mac reports that interest rates have dropped AGAIN to 4.36%. According to CoreLogic, 23 percent of residential homes with mortgages were in negative equity at the end of the 2nd quarter. Barclays Capital claims existing home sales decreased 30% last month.

In The News:

NAR - “Commercial Real Estate Remains Soft but Favors Business Expansion” (8-26-10)

“The SIOR index, measuring 10 variables, rose 2.8 percentage points to 41.0 in the second quarter, but remains well below a level of 100 that represents a balanced marketplace.  This is the third consecutive quarterly improvement after nearly three years of decline; the last time the commercial market was in equilibrium at the 100 level was in the third quarter of 2007.”

MBA - “Delinquencies and Foreclosure Starts Decrease in Latest MBA National Delinquency Survey” (8-26-10)

“The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties dropped to a seasonally adjusted rate of 9.85 percent of all loans outstanding as of the end of the second quarter of 2010, a decrease of 21 basis points from the first quarter of 2010, and an increase of 61 basis points from one year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey. The non-seasonally adjusted delinquency rate increased two basis points to 9.40 percent this quarter from 9.38 percent last quarter.”

Los Angeles Times – “Home loan rates drop yet again to record low” (8-26-10)

“Freddie Mac said rates for both 30-year and 15-year fixed mortgages dropped for the ninth time in the past 10 weeks. The mortgage giant’s weekly survey said the average rate that lenders were offering on the 30-year loan was 4.36% during the week that ended Thursday, down from 4.42% a week earlier and 5.14% a year ago. Borrowers would have paid 0.7% of the loan amount in upfront lender fees.”

Housing Wire – “Ranks of Underwater Borrowers Decline, Thanks to Foreclosure” (8-26-10)

“The number of Americans that owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth declined during the second quarter of 2010, but not because home prices have improved. Instead, according to a new report, increased foreclosures have helped flush underwater borrowers out of the nation’s housing markets. According to a report from information services provider CoreLogic (CLGX: 17.77 +0.28%) released Thursday morning, 11 million — or 23% — of all residential properties with mortgages were in a negative equity position at the end of the second quarter.”

Housing Wire – “Amherst Sees HARP Failing Over Fees” (8-26-10)

“The Home Affordable Refinance Program, which started early last year, was supposed to ’solve the key inhibitor to many borrowers refinancing in our current housing market – negative equity,’ the research firm’s MBS strategy group said in its most-recent mortgage insight report. However, high levels of due diligence and onerous fees for borrowers mean that those who should get the refi, likely won’t.”

Housing Wire – “Fed Buys $1.41bn of Treasuries” (8-26-10)

“The Federal Reserve purchased $1.41 billion of Treasury debt Thursday, including $1.14 billion of notes maturing in November 2021.”

Housing Wire – “Freddie Mac Mortgage Purchases and Issuances Fall in July, 2010 Total Pushes $207bn” (8-26-10)

“Mortgage purchases and issuance at government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) Freddie Mac fell to nearly $28.4bn, from $30.9bn in June — bringing the year-to-date totally to $207.4bn so far in 2010. Refinance-loan purchase and guarantee volume at Freddie fell to $18.1bn in July, from $19.1bn in June, according to the firm’s monthly volume summary (download here). The aggregate unpaid principal balance of the GSE’s mortgage-related investments decreased by $13.6bn.”

Housing Wire – “Barclays Capital Expects Home Prices to Dip Another 7%” (8-26-10)

“Existing home sales plummeted 30% in July after the homebuyer tax credit brought forward 300,000 to 600,000 of housing demand, assuming 4 million homes sell annually, according to research today from Barclays Capital.”

Housing Wire – “Weekly Initial Jobless Claims Down 6.1% to 473,000″ (8-26-10)

“The Labor Department said Thursday that seasonally-adjusted initial claims slid to 473,000 last week, down from an upwardly revised 504,000 for the previous week. Briefing.com consensus had expected claims to drop to 485,000.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, the NAR reported nearly one-third of all existing homes sales were either short sales or foreclosures. Home sales in July 2009 increased by 30 percent from January 2009. Office space availability increased in the second quarter of 2009 in Orange County.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor event calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

The MBA’s weekly survey shows that mortgage loan application volume increased by 4.9%. The Commerce Department reported new homes sales decreased 12.4% in July. According to Zillow, most Western states experienced a decrease in 20-year mortgage rates last week. California’s 30-year rate decreased to 4.30%.

In The News:

Mortgage Bankers Association - “Mortgage Refinance Applications Continue to Increase as Rates Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey” (8-25-10)

“The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 20, 2010.  The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 4.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.  On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 4.5 percent compared with the previous week”

Washington Post – “New home sales hit lowest level” (8-25-10)

“The Commerce Department reported Wednesday that new homes sold in July at an annual rate of 276,000, down 12.4 percent from June and down 32.4 percent compared with the same time last year”

Housing Wire – “Dow Closes Down Nearly 134 Points Following Bad Housing Data” (8-25-10)

“The American stock markets closed lower today following the news of homes sales dropping a staggering 27%. Stocks of big banks that have large mortgage-finance operations such as Citigroup (C: 3.68 -0.81%), Bank of America (BAC: 12.63 -0.08%), Wells Fargo (WFC: 23.4907 -0.63%) and JPMorgan (JPM: 36.179 -0.09%) closed lower despite doing large amounts of trading volume, according to the New York Stock Exchange”

Housing Wire – “Zillow: Rate on 30-Year Mortgage Remains Flat on Average” (8-25-10)

“Most western states saw a decline in rates: California’s current rate of 4.3% is down from 4.33% last week; Colorado’s at 4.17% is down from 4.19%; Washington’s at 4.29% is down from 4.33%; Illinois’ at 4.24% is down from 4.3%, and Florida’s at 4.2% is down from 4.21%.”

Housing Wire – “Deutsche Bank Summarizes Future of GSEs, Government Guarantee” (8-25-10)

“Key elements included re-launching of the MBS guarantee business backed by catastrophe insurance from the US government. This guarantee would implicitly serve as a backstop to the TBA pass-through market. In a panel with investors in the space, both of these aspects were considered key to maintaining adequate liquidity at the GSEs.”

Housing Wire – “House Prices Begin to Climb, Up 0.9% in Q2 in FHFA Index” (8-25-10)

“The agency said its second quarter HPI – calculated using information from mortgages acquired by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac – rose 0.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis from the prior quarter, yet fell 1.6% from the year ago. Still, prices of other goods and services in the second quarter were 3% higher than the year earlier. This puts the second quarter inflation-adjusted home price about 4.4% higher than last year, according to the FHFA.”

Housing Wire - “Americans Continue to Deleverage with Credit Card Debt Below $5k per Person” (8-25-10)

“The average national credit card borrower debt slid downward for the fifth consecutive quarter by 4.1% to $4,951, marking the first time the average has been below $5,000 since 2002, according to a report released today by TransUnion. This, coupled with the fact the national credit card delinquency rate for borrowers 90-plus days delinquent plummeted to 0.92% in Q210 (down 17.1% from the first quarter and 21.3% from last year) suggests that borrowers are saving more and spending more responsibly.”

Orange County Register – “Thinking of a refi? Tips for borrowers” (8-25-10)

“This summer’s bout of falling mortgage rates has sparked yet another frenzy of homeowners looking to refinance their loans. Now could be a good time to do it, too, with interest rates at their lowest in decades — lower than in 2001, lower than in 2003 and even lower than in 2004, when we last told you rates were at record lows. They’re lower now.”

Orange County Register – “O.C. housing risk 9th highest in U.S.” (8-25-10)

“Orange County home prices have 99.7% chance of price loss in two years, or by the winter of 2012. PMI Group doesn’t say how big of a price drop that would be, so the declines could be small or large. Nationwide, the average risk for price drops was 51.9% — down from 53.8% the previous quarter.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, the CAR reported Home sales increased 12 percent in July in California. Nationally home prices fell 6.1 percent in the second quarter from 2008, claimed the FHFA.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor event calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

Existing home sales experienced a dramatic decrease of 27.2 percent in July, according to the NAR. Housing production decreased by 10 percent in June. The CAR reports California home sales decreased 20.8 percent in July. Statistics from the California Employment Development Department show that 7,100 jobs were lost from July 2009.

In The News:

NAR - “July Existing-Home Sales Fall as Expected but Prices Rise” (8-24-10)

“Existing-home sales1, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, dropped 27.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.83 million units in July from a downwardly revised 5.26 million in June, and are 25.5 percent below the 5.14 million-unit level in July 2009.”

CBIA - “California Housing Production Increases in July, CBIA Announces” (8-24-10)

“According to statistics compiled by the Construction Industry Research Board (CIRB), permits were pulled for 4,165 total housing units in July, up 35 percent from the same month a year ago but down 10 percent from June. Permits for single-family homes totaled 1,951, down 9 percent from July 2009 and down 31 percent from the previous month, while multifamily permits totaled 2,214, up 134 percent from a year ago and up 25 percent from May.”

Mortgage Bankers Association – “Wells Fargo Tops U.S. Commercial/Multifamily Servicers in MBA Mid-Year Rankings Report” (8-24-10)

“The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its mid-year ranking of commercial and multifamily mortgage servicers as of the end of June 30, 2010. Topping the list of firms is Wells Fargo with $462.8 billion in U.S. master and primary servicing, followed by PNC Real Estate/Midland Loan Services with $307.9 billion, Berkadia Commercial Mortgage with $202.6 billion, Bank of America Merrill Lynch with $133.4 billion and KeyBank Real Estate Capital with $124.7 billion.”

CAR - “July sales and price report” (8-24-10)

“California home sales decreased 20.8 percent in July compared with the same period a year ago, while the median price of an existing home rose 10.4 percent from July 2009, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) reported today.”

Housing Wire – “Disappointing Homes Sales Unlikely to Reverse Course” (8-24-10)

“Predictions that home prices may drop into double digits continue to drag down sales. Bill Gross, managing director of the world’s biggest bond fund, PIMCO remarked that the idea of a rebound anytime soon is ‘ludicrous.’ In a meeting at the US Treasury last week, Gross called for combining the government-sponsored entities into one entity that insures the majority of current and future originations.”

Housing Wire – “60% of Delinquent Mortgages Not in Loss Mitigation” (8-24-10)

“According to a study from the State Foreclosure Prevention Working Group (SFPWG), 60% of borrowers with mortgages delinquent by 60 days or more are not being forwarded to the servicer’s loss mitigation department.”

Bloomberg - “Purchases of Existing Homes in U.S. Probably Slumped in July” (8-24-10)

“Sales of U.S. previously owned homes probably plunged in July to the lowest level since March 2009, evidence the market is restrained by foreclosures and limited job growth, economists said before a report today. Purchases dropped 13.4 percent from June to a 4.65 million annual rate, according to the median of 73 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. A decline would be the third in a row.”

Orange County Register – “Corona del Mar is O.C.’s ‘coldest’ market” (8-24-10)

“The pricier the town, the harder it is to sell a home there right now, the latest O.C. home inventory report from Steve Thomas at Altera Real Estate shows. Corona del Mar, for example, was Orange County’s ‘coldest’ market in the past 30 days. In theory, it would take 11 1/2 months to sell all the homes on the market there at the current sales pace, the highest ‘market time’ for any O.C. community in the 30 days ending on Aug. 19. Other ‘cold’ markets likewise tend to be home to some of O.C.’s most expensive housing.”

Orange County Register – “Real estate, building jobs down 5% in July” (8-24-10)

“Indeed, construction suffered the largest year-over-year decline among every employment category, the state Employment Development Department reported. Construction jobs fell by 7,100 positions from July 2009, down nearly 10%. Construction jobs totaled 65,700 in July, state figures show.”

Orange County Register – “Broker: No tsunami of repo’d homes to hit market” (8-24-10)

“This shadow inventory has to be worked through, but is not going to occur as a tsunami of distressed properties to hit the market all at once. Instead, we are going to witness slow increases and drops over the next few years. This slow absorption will not pull down values like it did at the beginning of this downturn and it will keep a lid on any substantial appreciation. Once employment improves, the pathway to an eventual healthy and stable recovery will occur.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, 45,079 new and resale houses and condos were sold statewide in one month. Home sales in the Bay Area hit a 4 year high. The Federal Reserve accepted $2.3 billion in investor requests for financing to purchase legacy commercial mortgage-backed securities.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor event calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

The CBIA reports 2,454 new homes and condominiums were closed statewide in June, compared to 3,848 a year earlier. A survey from Trulia shows that 68% of renters believe they will have to wait at least two years before even considering buying a home. According to HUD, 616,839 HAMP modifications have been canceled and 434,716 modifications have been made permanent since the program began. The Congressional Budget Office expects the Troubled Asset Relief Program to cost a total of $66bn.

In The News:

Daily Bulletin - “Uncertain times” (8-19-10)

“Norris said a larger number of expensive homes thrown into the mix of homes sold this year may be skewing the median price up, rather than an overall price increase in homes. Norris also said home affordability is ‘off the charts’ but it does not necessarily translate to a greater demand to buy homes. Because of the real estate crash, more people are afraid to go to the finish line with home purchases, he said.”

CBIA - “California New-Home Market Continues Struggle in June, CBIA Announces” (8-23-10)

“The monthly CBIA/Hanley Wood Market Intelligence (HWMI) New-Home Sales and Pricing Report showed that statewide new-home closings in June were off 36 percent from a year ago. During the month, 2,454 new homes and condominiums were closed across the state, compared to 3,848 a year earlier. Closings of single-family homes were down by 17 percent, while sales of townhomes were off by 57 percent and sales of condominiums were 67 percent lower than a year ago.”

Orange County Register – “Landlords pray for jobs” (8-21-10)

“I’m still concerned about future job growth and global market conditions that we don’t have control over. Unfortunately, our improvement is a condition of the housing and credit markets and reduced multifamily inventory, not significant job growth. Would-be home buyers who are no longer able to qualify to purchase a home, former home owners who lost their homes and new wage earners are sustaining our improved fundamentals. We will need consistent and sustainable job growth going forward.”

Orange County Register – “A good time to be a landlord?” (8-22-10)

“A new survey by Trulia.com shows that 1 in 4 renters say they’ll never purchase a home, and of those who will, 68% say it’ll take more than a couple of years to happen.”

Housing Wire – “Housing’s Second Leg Down” (8-23-10)

“Home prices have fallen 34% from their peak in the middle of 2006, according to Standard & Poor’s HPI data — but is that enough? Or is there further to go? How much further could we fall?”

Housing Wire – “HAMP Trial Cancelations Catching up to Permanent Modifications” (8-23-10)

“The Making Home Affordable Program (HAMP) initiated 1.3m trials as of July 2010, but is having difficulty retaining program participants through the process of making their modifications permanent. According to the July Servicer Performance Report released by the US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), 616,839 modifications have been canceled while 434,716 modifications have been made permanent throughout the program’s lifetime.”

Housing Wire – “TARP Losses Recalculated to $66bn as GSE Outlook Improves” (8-23-10)

“The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected Friday the total cost of Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) over its lifetime would be $66bn. This is down from the $109bn lifetime cost projected in March. Outlays for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will fall from $96bn in 2009 to $41bn this year, the CBO estimates, mostly because the two entities are expected to recognize fewer losses on their mortgage investments and guarantees.”

Housing Wire – “Econoday Reports Swings in Housing Starts Due To Multifamily Volatility” (8-23-10)

“July housing starts rose 1.7% to 546,000 from June’s revised figure of 537,000, which is the lowest level since October. The June revision and volatility in the multifamily component led to the monthly gain, according to Mark Rogers, senior economist at the Calif.-based research firm.”

Housing Wire – “Monday Morning Cup of Coffee” (8-23-10)

“The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) released Friday a list of Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) performance evaluations for 39 national banks and insured federal branches of foreign banks. Of the banks, nine received an outstanding rating, 30 received a satisfactory rating and none needed to improve. None were of substantial noncompliance.”

Housing Wire – “Strengthening CRE Market Pushes Defeasance Levels Up: Moody’s” (8-23-10)

“Moody’s said loans originally secured by multi-family properties saw the highest level of defeasance during the first six months, accounting for 46% of total defeasance. Retail properties represented 22% of all defeasance for the period with lodging properties at 17%. And 61% of all defeased loans during the period had two years or less remaining on the loan. Defeasance activity is when a borrower in a commercial real estate securitization substitutes some type of capital-generating collateral – often Treasury securities – in lieu of a hard payment.”

Bloomberg - “Bernanke Must Raise Benchmark Rate 2 Points, Rajan Says” (8-23-10)

“Raghuram Rajan accurately warned central bankers in 2005 of a potential financial crisis if banks lost confidence in each other. Now the International Monetary Fund’s former chief economist says the Federal Reserve should consider raising rates, even as almost 10 percent of the U.S. workforce remains unemployed.”

Bloomberg - “Housing Slide in U.S. Threatens to Drag Economy Into Recession” (8-23-10)

“‘If foreclosures continue to mount and depress home prices, that could send the economy back into a recession,’ said Celia Chen, an economist who tracks the industry for Moody’s Analytics Inc.”

Orange County Register – “‘How to torpedo your short sale’” (8-23-10)

“Many of the lenders won’t pay past due HOA dues, and the short sale can’t be closed without bringing the HOA dues current. If you can, keep your HOA dues current or plan to bring money to close to pay for them.  Sometimes the lender will pay them, sometimes the buyer will, and sometimes we need can succesfully negotiate the amount, but late HOA dues can torpedo a short sale on your Orange County home.”

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor event calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

Video Blog Sources:

Mortgage News Daily – “Mortgage Rates End Losing Streak After Reprices for Better” (8-19-10)

Wall Street Jounral –  “Redfin: Less Than Half of All Home-Sale Attempts Successful in ‘09” (8-16-10)

Housing Wire – “Bankrate: Loan Closing Costs Jump 36.6% Year-Over-Year” (8-17-10)

Housing Wire – “TransUnion: Housing Begins to Stabilize as Delinquent Loans Fall in Q210” (8-17-10)

DQ News – “Southern California Home Sales and Median Price Dip in July” (8-17-10)

Wall Street Journal – “Mortgage Delinquency Runs Slightly Higher in Dems’ Districts″ (8-19-10)

Today’s News Synopsis:

MDA Dataquick’s monthly study shows 6,773 new and resale homes closed escrows in Northern California last month. In the entire state, 35,202 new and resale houses and condos were sold. The California State Assembly approved SB 1178, which will extend anti-deficiency protection for consumers who have refinanced their original mortgage loans. The Census Bureau reports the number of people who own their homes free and clear has decreased, and the number of people in reverse mortgages increased 59 percent.

In The News:

Los Angeles Times – “Professional investors move into flipping foreclosed homes” (8-20-10)

“Hoping there are big profits to be made in the aftermath of California’s housing collapse, professional investors are flocking to the business of buying foreclosed homes at distressed prices. The investors, primarily private equity funds and groups of wealthy individuals, purchase the homes at public auctions, which are held daily on the steps of local courthouses. They refurbish the properties and try to sell them for quick profits.”

DQNews - “Bay Area July Home Sales Down Sharply; Median Price Slips From June” (8-19-10)

“Last month a total of 6,773 new and resale homes closed escrows in the nine-county Bay Area, down 19.1 percent from 8,373 in June and down 22.8 percent from 8,771 in July 2009, according to MDA DataQuick of San Diego.”

DQNews - “California July Home Sales” (8-19-10)

“An estimated 35,202 new and resale houses and condos were sold statewide last month. That was down 19.9 percent from 43,964 in June, and down 21.9 percent from 45,079 for July 2009. California sales for the month of July have varied from a low of 30,596 in 1995 to a peak of 71,186 in 2004, the average is 47,093. MDA DataQuick’s statistics go back to 1988.”

CBIA - “California Housing Affordability Declines in Second Quarter, CBIA Announces” (8-19-10)

“On a statewide basis, the HOI found that a family earning the median income could have afforded 58.4 percent of the new and existing homes that were sold during the second quarter, down from 60.8 percent in the first quarter.”

CAR - “California State Assembly passes SB 1178 protecting homeowners” (8-19-10)

“The California State Assembly today approved SB 1178 (D-Corbett) by a 49 to 14 vote, extending anti-deficiency protection for consumers who have refinanced their original mortgage loans and now are facing foreclosure. The CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) is the sponsor of the consumer-protection legislation.”

Housing Wire - “Commercial Real Estate Hit with 41% Price Drop, Soaring Delinquencies” (8-20-10)

“National property prices on commercial real estate dropped 9.1% in June from last year, according to Moody’s commercial property price index. The rate declined 0.9% over the first half of 2010, and while prices remain 4.2% above the current recession low of October, they are down 41.4% from the peak in October 2007.”

Housing Wire – “Census Bureau Reports 59% Rise in Reverse Mortgages as Overall Ownership Falls” (8-20-10)

“The nation’s homeowners paid a median of $1,000 in monthly housing costs in 2009, while renters paid a median of $808 per month, according to the 2009 American Housing Survey released Thursday by the US Census Bureau and the US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). Compared to 2007, the number of homeowners that owned their home free and clear decreased 1.3% to 24.2m in 2009 from 24.9m. The amount of regular and home-equity mortgages increased 1.4% to 50.3m from 48.7 in 2007. Reverse mortgages increased 59% to 252,000 from 159,000 while line of credit options decreased to 1.7m from 1.8m.”

Housing Wire – “REO Listing Agents – The Helping Hand That Isn’t Always There” (8-20-10)

“In some cases, interested buyers have been ignored (as documented in ’secret shopper’ campaigns). This is not to suggest that all or even most of the REO listing agents are doing a poor job, it is to suggest that as volume levels to some agents has increased there may be a direct correlation to declining service levels that should be understood.”

Inman - “Don’t buy Fannie-Freddie ‘Big Lie’” (8-20-10)

“While the Fed and the Obama administration insist that recovery is moving forward, the pattern of inbound data produces the same, queasy sensation as their denial in the fall of 2007 and the summer of 2008. New unemployment insurance claims hit a one-year high, to 500,000 last week. There was no dramatic spike, just steady deterioration. The Philadelphia Fed index yesterday stunned the remaining optimists: Expected to rise from a weak 5.1 in June, it fell to negative 7.7, weakest in new-order and employment components.”

Inman - “Mortgage rates go lower” (8-20-10)

“Rates on fixed-rate mortgages tracked by Freddie Mac hit new lows this week, with 30-year fixed-rate loans averaging 4.42 percent with an average of 0.7 point. That’s down from 4.44 percent last week and 5.12 percent at the same time a year ago, and is a new low in records dating to 1971.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, the delinquency rate for residential mortgages increased to 9.24%. A home buyer survey showed that 70% of women made up their mind to buy the day they first saw a home for sale, vs. 62% of men. 55% of women place more importance on living closer to extended family than to their job; only 37% of men felt the same way.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor event calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.