Sources:
Real Estate Outlook: Existing-Home Sales Rise Again
CoreLogic Records 4.7% Drop in Home Prices in 2011
ADP: Private sector adds 170,000 jobs in January
Jobless rate drops to lowest level in almost three years
Unemployment rate falls to 8.3%
Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Mortgage Rates for 30-Year Fixed U.S. Loans Decline to Record-Low 3.87%
Housing construction spending hits 16-year low
Homeownership rate falls to 14-year low
Robo-Signing Settlement Update: Friday is Cutoff for States to Join
Foreclosures Draw Private Equity as U.S. Sells Homes
Report: Freddie Mac bets against homeowner refinancings
Obama administration details refinance plan for underwater borrowers
Senate joins House in effort to cut pay at Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac

Today’s News Synopsis:

This week’s video features a slide show of the news of the week in the world of real estate and other big news stories.  According to CoreLogic, prices for homes decreased 4.7% in 2011, making it the fifth year in a row home prices declined over the year.  Unemployment is at 8.3%, the lowest in three years with the addition of 243,000 new jobs added last month.

In The News:

DS News – “CoreLogic Records 4.7% Drop in Home Prices in 2011″ (2-2-12)

“Year-end data from CoreLogic shows home prices fell by 4.7 percent over 2011. It marks the fifth consecutive year the company has recorded an annual decline in residential property values.”

Housing Wire – “Unemployment rate falls to 8.3%” (2-3-12)

“The economy added 243,000 jobs in January and the unemployment rate fell to 8.3%, its lowest level since February 2009.  The Labor Department said large gains in professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and manufacturing jobs drove the gains, which came in well above most analysts’ estimates. The rate in December was 8.5%.”

CNN Money - “Stealth jobs boom: 6 months, 2 million jobs” (2-3-12)

“Companies are saying the job market is getting better. Workers are saying it’s already kicked into high gear.  Friday’s jobs report showed a gain of 243,000 jobs. But a separate survey of households used to determine the unemployment rate shows much, much stronger job gains.”

Realty Times – “Average Mortgage Rates Ease Setting New Record Lows” (2-3-12)

“In Freddie Mac’s results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey®, the average mortgage rates dropped to new all-time record lows as data on economic growth fell short of market projections. All products in the PMMS survey, except the 1-Year ARM, averaged new lows.”

Housing Wire – “Obama mortgage refinance plan accelerates equity rebuild” (2-3-12)

“One option under the most recent refinancing plan from the Obama administration would allow borrowers to not only surface from underwater but actually begin building equity in their home at a quicker pace.”

Realty Times – “Real Estate Drops But Second Home Market May See Increase” (2-3-12)

“Interest rates continue to remain low for mortgages and it looks as though the Federal Reserve will keep the rate at which banks lend to each other overnight low through 2014. The federal funds rate is expected to remain at zero to 1/4 percent for the next few years due to the depressed housing market and slow business investments.”

San Francisco Chronicle – “Mortgage rates for 30-year loans hit record low” (2-3-12)

“Rates for 30-year U.S. mortgages declined to the lowest level on record after the Obama administration announced measures to make it easier for homeowners to reduce their monthly payments by refinancing.”

Housing Wire – “Senate adds Fannie, Freddie bonus ban to Stock Act” (2-3-12)

“The Senate agreed to a resolution that would stop executive bonuses at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, attaching the measure to a larger congressional insider-trading bill.”

Bloomberg - “Goldman Sachs Mortgage-Backed Securities Suit Granted Class-Action Status” (2-3-12)

“A suit against Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) may go forward as a class action on behalf of all investors in a $698 million mortgage-backed securities offering, a federal judge in Manhattan ruled.”

Hard Money Loan Closed

San Bernardino, California hard money loan closed by The Norris Group private lending. Real estate investor received loan for $72,000 on a 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom home appraised for $120,000.

California Real Estate Investor Events:

Bruce Norris of The Norris Group will be at the Advanced Investing Skills and Strategies 2.5 on February 4, 2012.

The Norris Group posted a new event. Bruce Norris of The Norris Group will be at the 2012 Kick Off Brunch on February 18, 2012.

Looking Back:

Freddie Mac reported the average rate for 30-year mortgages increased to 4.81%. The Labor Department said jobless claims declined the previous week. Freddie Mac funded $15 billion worth of multifamily transactions through its multifamily whole loan and bond guarantee business in 2010. The Treasury Department expected the government to hit the $14.29 trillion debt limit before June 2011.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

Mike Novak-Smith

REO agent

RE/Max

(Full Bio)

Ted Boeker

Owner and Broker

RE/Max

(Full Bio)

This week Bruce Norris is joined by Mike Novak-Smith and Ted Boeker. Mike Novak-Smith is not only one of the largest REO agents in the Inland Empire, but the nation. Mike is in the top 1% of all real estate agents nationwide and is experienced in REO, short sales, bankruptcies, asset management, and negotiating. Mike specializes in REOs in Riverside, Moreno Valley, San Bernardino, Perris, Rialto, Colton, and Corona. Ted Boeker is the owner of the company that Mike is at and has brokered for RE/Max Results in Moreno Valley. Having started the company in 1989, Ted has vast experience in real estate and has been able to train and lead 35 of Southern California’s highest producing real estate brokers and agents to close deals quickly and efficiently for a variety of clients in commercial, residential, multifamily, and office real estate. Nationwide Home Loans Inc. and RE/Max Results escrow division are associated companies. Before that, Ted practiced law.

Ted opened a business in 1989, which was a peak year. Things changed radically after this, and Bruce wondered if this was something that as a part of his business model he saw changing very quickly or if it surprised him. Ted said he would love to say he foresaw a lot of things, but he really did not see much coming. He had come out of commercial real estate, which died after the 1986 Tax Reform Act; and he said there was nothing in commercial to do so he should look at residential. It looked attractive at the time, but he never dreamed they would see the ups and downs that they have. Ted said it was probably good to start when he did because it did steal him through some of the early tough times. The flexibility of a business model all of a sudden became absolute. You could not do farming and be surviving in the ‘90s, and you could not do it after 2006 either.

Bruce went to a meeting at Ted’s company where he talked, and remembered prior to the meeting when they were talking about volume of sales. They were talking about the number of closings that Mike had and the other people who were ahead. Bruce also envisioned a meeting he was not at in 2006 where everybody is doing pretty well, and he wondered how you tell somebody that is doing well that their model is about to radically change and they have to do it before it actually happens. Ted said it is not easy as real estate agents are a wide variety of people, some well educated and others not so much. The biggest example is 3 years ago Ted started harping on short sales, being able to hopefully foresee what was coming. However, agents two years ago said Ted was crazy and they were not going to do what he was talking about. Ted said today about 40% of his sales are short sales. The agents who refused it are probably gone, and the ones who embraced it are doing relatively well to the marketplace. There are not a lot of easy commission checks anywhere.

Mike has been involved in the REO listing side for 21 years. The first REO ever listed was in January 1991. He worked at a Century 21 Office where they could not give away the REO. It basically paid 5% commission instead of 6%. He made a referral, but he was number 9 one the list; so when they finally got to him he knew the economy was declining. The Persian Gulf War had started, and things were tough. He thought if he could do the deal at 2% he could still make the house and car payments and could eat another month. This was why he carried out the deal. Anybody that declined the deal at the time is no longer in the business. Prior to doing the REOs, Mike’s business model was to show up at a Century 21 office and try to live off the floor time and advertise, which he did well. People would just walk in and say they wanted to buy or sell a house and you wrote up the deal. It was easy. Mike also started in 1989 at the very peak year and then quickly transitioned into unknown territory. The 90s was not replicated and it was not the normal downturn. In the ‘80s we had the radical interest rate change, but we did not have a price decline because we were able to borrow the cheap financing and move it forward to other buyers. In the 90s we took a 5% gradual decline every year for a while, and this was news to everyone who owned California real estate.

Bruce wondered how the 2006-2011 downturns differed from what Ted experienced in the 90s as a business owner. Ted said he did not remember the 90s as well because they never really got up to speed. It took them ten years to get up to a critical mass of agents and holding on through the tough times. The early 2000s were good, and then the falloff was a real shock. When they saw the change in 2008, it was the big change for them. In 2008 and 2009 they had a lot of REOs, and then nothing for two years. This is the biggest challenge he has ever had. They have really been able to tighten up and cut out expenses, but that is the key.

As far as the cycles went, Mike said in the 90s he could predict better what was going to happen. He could see the start and the end game. Now it just seems like it is never going to end. It was easier back then to predict your business than compared to now. You get a lot of curve balls today that you did not get then. As far as quantity of listings in this current cycle, Mike said the peak year for him and for everybody in general was 2008. We did not have the government intrusion that we had in the last 3 years, and this is a big frustration.

Bruce wondered what the following years as far as percentages went after 2008 if that year was a 100% year. Mike said in 2008 it went down about 20% for him and 60% in ’10. In ’11, it picked up a little bit but still went down about 50%. Bruce also wondered if anybody on the lender side is saying to either Mike or Ted that they will not be releasing so many or if they are always telling them to step up. What he heard for a long time was to maintain the staff and not cut anybody back, and this was kind of a mistake. He carried too much overhead through a lot of 2010, and he finally decided he was going to have to cut it back. He is okay with not making any money sometimes, but he hates having to feed it. Now he has the right amount of staff, and if they pay attention and operate well, they can make money. When you talk to asset management, the general opinion of people is they do not want to sit there and say they are not going to have a job. They believe it is going to pick up and they are going to have REOs to sell so they will have a job. He believes this is what a lot of it comes down to overall, and he does not believe anybody can predict what is going to happen. They are probably not at the policy decision level. With someone in Mike’s position, one of the nation’s largest, he would probably feel that he has access to somebody inside actually telling him the real scoop. However, this does not happen. Mike said he does know some people way up the food chain from various REO organizations, and even they cannot tell you what is going to happen.

Mike’s REO business peaked in 2008 when we had about a 3.4% delinquency rate, and we went up to 11.2%. Mike’s peak of foreclosures resulted from a 3.2% delinquency, and then we tripled. The amount of REOs he probably should have been handling should have been some gigantic percentage above the peak and its decline. The shadow inventory term is real, but it is not where people think it is. Mike’s opinion of what shadow inventory is the process that is not being finished. There are a lot of defaults going on, but the timeframe between when somebody misses the first payment to the time they foreclose is probably in many cases 18 months to 2 years. He asks a lot of people how long since they made their payment and this is the answer he usually gets. He rarely gets anybody less than a year; but he thinks the whole process has just slowed down, and this is your shadow inventory. It is not like the banks are sitting on millions of houses they own; they just don’t finish the foreclosure. Bruce wondered if there is a valid reason why they don’t do this, and Mike said part of the reason is if they just foreclosed every which way they could, they would not have the capability to handle the property. He hears of agents telling him they are in a really bad situation and don’t even want to foreclose because they do not want the house back. They don’t want to be responsible for the code liens and the taxes.

Bruce said what is interesting to him is somebody always tells him that the lenders are too smart in regards to carrying out foreclosures, but in 2008 they did exactly what they should not have done. They foreclosed on properties aggressively, and we ended up with something like 17 months of inventory and a price decline of about 3 or 4% a month. Once you are there on that low level of price and everybody is upside down; it is much easier to make a decision to walk when you have negative 50% equity. When the civil Code 1169 came into effect in California, you could be fined $1,000 a day if you are the lender owning the property or a trustee sale buyer owning a property. They have someone come out and visit your place, and you have a week or two to fix whatever they are going to see.

When Mike resells REOs, Bruce wondered if there was a big problem with liens that had been placed on the property. Mike said they have a lot of problems with liens. He has a full-time employee whose job is dealing with liens, code violations, and HOA problems. Part of the problem with a lot of the banks is they do not have the internal staff anymore to handle these problems. It used to be they had attorneys on staff that would fix a lot of the code violations and a lot of the liens, and now a lot of that is not done. We do not figure it out until we start marketing the property and they come up. He said he fronts a lot of money to pay code violations and liens because typically the agents expect you to pay them and then be reimbursed. They are on it full-time, checking properties every day as he does not want any code violations and does not want to front the money for it. It is a lot bigger problem than it once was.

Bruce wondered what percentages of his listings were occupied by somebody at the end of the foreclosure process, which Mike said was about 75%. The attitude of the person behind the door is usually bewilderment as they wonder how something like this could happen, and most of these people are tenants of the former borrower. They did not know they were about to be asked to go.

On the topic of Cash for Keys, once this type of thing happens it becomes a street lore and urban legend. You can go ahead and ask for cash for keys, plus with some of the clients they are told how much cash for keys is going to be. A large problem Mike has is a lot of clients are very generous with cash for keys and some are not. Many of them ask why they only receive $1500 when their friend received $8,000. Bruce said if the Learning Annex was still in business, he could be almost certain there was a class held at night. The Cash for Keys is a big deal, but the offers vary a lot, and this can cause some problems. Bruce wondered if it has to do with the size of the loan or just the motivation of the lender, to which Mike said it is the latter. The more well known you are today as a lender, the more you want to pay.

Bruce wondered how big of a problem MERS robo-signing presented to California lenders. Mike said he has not seen much of it where it was a problem. He does believe with a lot of their deals a lot of the loans are in pools and portfolios, and sometimes they get slowed down because someone is going to check the whole portfolio, whether most of the loans are in Chicago or Florida. Sometimes this will slow them down. Something that was originally going to close, for example, in January will not close until March. However, the bigger issue is they are in a mix of properties.

On the myth of bulk sales and bulk REO listings, Bruce said he has only fallen victim to this one time as he went around an looked at 100 houses in two days to get his piece of the dream. However, there have been people who spent a year and ruined themselves by following something that seemed imminent that they were going to cash in on 100 houses. Mike does deal with a lot of REOs, and Bruce wondered if he has dealt with successful bulk deals in California only. He said Fannie Mae and several others do pool sales and advertise for it, but it is usually beyond the capability of the small investors. It does happen, but where he gets the calls is from some person who wants to buy ten houses in bulk, and the problem with that is with many of the lenders there are ten different investors on the deals. It is not the same real seller when you get down to the bottom line. Bruce wondered if he feels there are sufficient properties going that route that it affects the volume that they see, but Mike said this was not the case.

Another topic is bulk note sales, where you have big companies buy thousands of loans at a shot. Bruce wondered if this is significant in its impact in the REO listings. Mike said he is not sure he has seen them, even if it is possible they are going on. You do not see them in California has much as you see them in other places. In Orange County, there is a company in Irvine that buys very large pools, but the majority of the loans are not in California yet. Even if the purchaser received 60% off of the face, it would be hard to say that there would be a lot of room.

Bruce was a moderator of a panel on bulk buying that HousingWire.com had a couple years ago. He was very fascinated with the concept and thought it could really happen to somebody. Of the three, one of the companies that was on the panel was capable of buying 1,000 homes in a very short notice was Williams and Williams Auction Company. Bruce knew Tommy Williams personally, so he talked to him, the person he thought would really know. Having auctioneers all over the country, their infrastructure is such that they literally could get a 1,000 property listing within two or three days, legitimately see every one of them, and come to a number. They had not bought a property in a year, so they had the capacity, but there was not any inventory that was going that route in that kind of volume. Bruce just heard of another scenario yesterday about a bulk sale from one particular lender, so it is such a great theory. However, Ted said somebody actually has to go out and look at the properties to make sure they are even there. Ted said they have had REOs they have gone out to look at that are not even there and had burned down about a year earlier.

It seems one of the things RE/Max would really have a grasp on is how much infrastructure there is as far as capacity to move inventory already in place. They do not have to invent a thing. Bruce wondered how many more listings they could have, if they could have a multiple of 300-400% alone. This is replicated everywhere. Someone could drop a lot of properties into the United States REOs, and it would get absorbed by current staff. Another option is trained staff is added, and this would make more sense more than selling thousands of homes to a hedge fund. There were couple of things in a report Bruce read, and one of the things was doing a big bulk deal. A couple days later he saw a headline for a $650 million pool by one of the well known big companies that they were going to buy REOs and retain them as rentals. This sounds significant until you look at the numbers of how much debt there is in excess. You basically have a $3 trillion problem when you start throwing $50 million at it and see how it is such an insignificant thing. In short of saying they are going to forgive everybody, whoever owes more than their house is worth, we are probably in for a long haul. There is really no end in sight and no end game. Neither is there a change in the aggression of lenders saying they should cut to the chase and take all the REOs back. If a lot of the houses were sold to hedge funds, they would be a lot more aggressive because they would not care about their name being drug through the mud. They do not have a public name or a retail presence, and this is most likely part of the reason why things are slow in some cases.

One of the suggestions in the white report was getting a deed in lieu of foreclosure and giving the people right to buy the property back some years later. Bruce wondered what their thoughts were on the same owner returning as owner at a later time. However, Ted said this is silly. Once a person has given up on the property as we have seen and stopped making payments a year or two earlier, when you go to that person see them start making payments again, that person just laughs at the agents in charge. Bruce does not know how you rationalize this with the person next door making payments on the same loan. You start asking yourself if you can get the deal too. Mike and Ted said one of their clients offered the ability for the occupants to lease the property for a year. Mike and Ted said they have started a few of these, but they have yet to see anybody finish before they failed and ended up being evicted. For them, not paying is a good deal and they want it to continue.

Bruce read another news article where they were talking to a family that had not made a payment in a couple years, and it was a very positive experience for them as far as what it did for them financially. If you think about it, they have an expectation that this is okay, and there is an expectation that it is almost sad when it ends. Of the people who have not made a payment in two years, the ones who have saved all the payments is 0%. There is a statistic that 4,100,000 people that are 90 days late or beyond, including REOs, there is only a 1% chance that they will willingly write a check to make it current. 99% of the pile is going to go the route of a lowered opening bid at a trustee sale, a short sale, or an REO.

In RE/Max’s business model, the short sales have really aggressively gained momentum. Bruce wondered if they are ahead of REOs as far as closings. However, Ted and Mike believe they are even. Last year, roughly, they had about 20% normal sales and about evenly divided between short sales and REOs. Bruce has looked at charts for years, and he said he has not come up with a real meaning with what was just said regarding REOs and short sales until recently. When you close 100 sales, only 20 buyers emerge. This really hit Bruce that in the Inland Empire 80% of the closings are either going to be vacant or bought by someone new migrating here or someone in credit damage or investor for cash. This is not a lot of people. Unfortunately, it is many of the people who walked from their homes three years ago and now have repaired their credit and are able to buy again. There are very few of those, but it is shocking in today’s world that the person who did the wrong thing three years ago seems to be saving the system. Had we foreclosed on somebody instead of waiting, the people who are behind by 2 ½ years have not had one day of new credit.

Tune in next week as Bruce continues his interview with Mike Novak-Smith and Ted Boeker. For more information on RE/Max, visit www.remax-results-ca.com/.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

Mortgage rates for 30 year fixed U.S. loans are at their lowest on record at 3.87%.  In other news, unemployment claims also decreased last week as did claims for unemployment insurance.  A bill was introduced in the Senate yesterday that would change the way employees at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will be paid.

In The News:

Housing Wire – “Senate joins House in effort to cut pay at Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac” (2-1-12)

“A Senate bill introduced Wednesday would place employees at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac under a federal pay scale, similar to legislation already in the works in the House.”

Inman – “Obama administration details refinance pan for underwater borrowers” (2-1-12)

“Last week, in his State of the Union address, President Obama introduced a proposal to help millions of homeowners, who are underwater on their mortgages, refinance their loans at current low rates. Today, the administration released details of the plan.”

CNN Money – “Bernanke: Fed will protect U.S. economy from Europe” (2-2-12)

“The recovery remains “frustrating slow” in the United States, and now Europe’s debt crisis is posing additional challenges, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress Thursday.”

Bloomberg – “Mortgage Rates for 30-Year U.S. Fixed Loans Decline to a Record-Low of 3.87%” (2-2-12)

Rates for 30-year U.S. mortgages declined to the lowest level on record after the Obama administration announced measures to make it easier for homeowners to reduce their monthly payments by refinancing.”

Housing Wire – “Jobless claims decline, lower than most estimates” (2-2-12)

“The number of Americans filing initial jobless claims declined about 3% last week, coming in lower than most analysts’ estimates and staying below 400,000.”

San Francisco Chronicle – “BofA Tumbles to 5.6% Share of Mortgages as Wells Fargo Dominates” (2-2-12)

“Bank of America Corp. lost about three-quarters of its market share in U.S. home mortgages since 2007 as the firm grappled with defective loans, while Wells Fargo & Co.’s presence almost doubled, FBR Capital Markets said.”

DS News – “Claims for Unemployment Insurance Improve as January Ends” (2-2-12)

“First time claims for unemployment insurance fell 12,000 for the week ended January 28 to 367,000, reversing half of the increase of the previous week, the Department of Labor reported Thursday.”

Bloomberg – “Obama Uses Housing Crisis as Foil to Romney’s ‘Hit-Bottom’ Strategy” (2-2-12)

“The White House hopes to help millions of homeowners lower their monthly mortgage bill with a $5 billion to $10 billion plan to set up a streamlined refinancing program for people who are current on their payments.”

Housing Wire – “PMI Group latest mortgage insurer to give Fannie Mae short-sale authority” (2-2-12)

“Fannie Mae mortgage servicers can complete short sales and deeds in lieu of foreclosure without getting separate approval from the now bankrupt mortgage insurer The PMI Group, a change that’s expected to further reduce barriers to short sales.”

DS News – “Real Estate Professionals Feeling Brunt of Recession” (2-2-12)

“The effects of the housing crisis are widespread, but nowhere do they hit home more than in the real estate community.  Eighty-eight percent of real estate professionals in a recent survey said they have lost money since 2008 or are living off significantly less income. Many are dipping into savings to make ends meet.”

Realtor Magazine – “Rural Refinance Pilot Program Announced” (2-2-12)

“The USDA is launching the Single Family Housing Guaranteed Rural Refinance Pilot Program, which is designed to help rural home owners refinance their mortgages in order to reduce monthly payments.”

Hard Money Loan Closed

San Diego, California hard money loan closed by The Norris Group private lending. Real estate investor received loan for $90,000 on a 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom home appraised for $160,000.

California Real Estate Investor Events:

Bruce Norris of The Norris Group will be at the Advanced Investing Skills and Strategies 2.5 tomorrow, February 4, 2012.

The Norris Group posted a new event. Bruce Norris of The Norris Group will be at the 2012 Kick Off Brunch on February 18, 2012.

Looking Back:

Mortgage application volume increased 11.3% from the previous week, according to the MBA. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were raising risk fees they charged lenders on loans they bought for resale to investors. HOPE NOW reported 1.76 million homeowners received a mortgage modification in 2010. Statistics from DBRS showed 50 percent of loan modifications resulted in re-default.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

170,000 jobs were added to the private sector, although job growth overall was slower for the month of January as companies were hiring fewer people.  In updated news from yesterday, the home ownership rate has decreased for 7 years straight and is now at levels that have not been seen in almost 14 years.  Both mortgage rates and applications continue to stay low.

In The News:

DS News – “Robo-Signing Settlement Update: Friday is Cutoff for States to Join” (1-31-12)

“State attorneys general have until Friday to sign on to the settlement draft proposed last Monday that would resolve claims against the nation’s top five mortgage servicers surrounding documentation errors in foreclosure processing, according to the Wall Street Journal’s Ruth Simon.”

Housing Wire – “Homeownership rate falls to 14-year low” (1-31-12)

“The nation’s home ownership rate fell for the seventh year in a row, nearly touching levels unseen in 14 years.  U.S. home ownership in the fourth quarter of 2011 dropped 0.5% from the year-ago period to 66%, according to a U.S. Census Bureau report released Tuesday. The rate hasn’t dropped that low since 1997 when it was 65.7%. Since then, it steadily rose until 2005, reaching 69%.”

CNN Money – “Job growth slows in January” (2-1-12)

“Companies slowed their hiring in January, according to a report by payroll processor ADP.  The private sector added 170,000 jobs in the month, ADP said Wednesday, missing forecasts of 200,000 jobs that economists polled by Briefing.com had predicted.”

Mortgage Bankers Association – “Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey” (2-1-12)

Mortgage applications decreased 2.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 27, 2012.”

Housing Wire – “Housing construction spending hit 16-year low” (2-1-12)

“Residential construction rose on a seasonally adjusted basis in December from the year-ago period, despite yearly totals at their lowest level since 1995.”

Realty Times – “Mortgage Rates Remain Low While Mixed Reports Flourish” (2-1-12)

“After several positive housing reports released this month, the National Association of Realtor’s Pending Home Sales Index decreased 3.5% in December.  For another week, while mixed reports flourish, mortgage rates have remained low and stable according to Freerateupdate.com’s weekly survey of wholesale and direct lenders.”

Los Angeles Times – “White House details mortgage refinancing plan for homeowners” (2-1-12)

“The White House hopes to help millions of homeowners lower their monthly mortgage bill with a $5 billion to $10 billion plan to set up a streamlined refinancing program for people who are current on their payments.”

Housing Wire – “FHFA will pre-qualify investors for bulk REO program” (2-1-12)

“Investors who want to acquire and rent out real-estate owned properties from the Federal Housing Finance Agency can begin pre-qualifying for participation in the bulk REO rental program.”

DS News – “Mortgage and Foreclosure Complaints Quadruple in Massachusetts” (2-1-12)

“Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakley has seen mortgage and foreclosure-related complaints quadruple in her state over the past two years. In fact, the category now overshadows all other types of consumer complaints.”

Realtor Magazine – “Where List Prices Have Fallen the Most in a Year” (2-1-12)

“While nationally, the median list price has been on the rise the last year, increasing 5 percent year-over-year to $188,000, according to December 2011 housing data published by Realtor.com.  But home prices the past year haven’t been rising everywhere. For example, Detroit continues to face a plague of foreclosures that are bringing home values down in the area. The metro area had the biggest drop in median list prices the past year.”

Hard Money Loan Closed

Wilmington, California hard money loan closed by The Norris Group private lending. Real estate investor received loan for $150,000 on a 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home appraised for $242,000.

California Real Estate Investor Events:

Bruce Norris of The Norris Group will be at the Advanced Investing Skills and Strategies 2.5 on February 4, 2012.

The Norris Group posted a new event. Bruce Norris of The Norris Group will be at the 2012 Kick Off Brunch on February 18, 2012.

Looking Back:

The Commerce Department said construction spending fell 2.5% from July 2011. Fiserv forecasted a 5.5% decline in home prices for 2011. According to the Treasury Department, the re-default rate for the Making Home Affordable Program averaged 20.4% after 1 year. Marcus & Millichap expected Orange County rents to rise 4.5% in 2011.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

According to the latest Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller Index, the prices of homes decreased 3.7% from last year.  In other news, the Conference Board reported consumer confidence declined again this month after having increased at the end of 2011.   The Congressional Budget Office expects taxpayers will pay $27 billion to aid Fannie and Freddie from 2013 to 2022.

In The News:

CNN Money – “Freddie Mac: A mess, and likely to stay that way” (1-30-12)

“It’s not tough to find critics of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae on either the right or the left. But there has been little progress made in rehabilitating the mortgage giants.”

Housing Wire – “S&P/Case-Shiller Nov. home prices down 3.7% from year earlier” (1-31-12)

“The average price of a single-family home fell again in November, with decreases in 19 of the 20 largest metropolitan areas during the month, according to the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller index.”

Realty Times – “California Association of REALTORS® To Build Ethics Violations Data Base” (1-31-12)

Approve that C.A.R. build a system, to be developed by staff, to create a database that contains all final findings – within the last three (3) years – of a member’s Code of Ethics and membership duty violations, including whether the member fulfilled the sanction imposed, for use by local Associations in making their decision on membership applications.”

Housing Wire – “CBO slashes cost of Fannie, Freddie over next decade” (1-31-12)

“Taxpayers will spend another $27 billion between 2013 and 2022 subsidizing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, according to the Congressional Budget Office estimates released Tuesday.”

DS News – “Appraisal Institute Offers Guidance on Distressed Comparables” (1-31-12)

“The Appraisal Institute recently released new guidelines to instruct its members on how to deal with distressed sales and foreclosures when seeking comparables.”

Housing Wire – “Consumer confidence retreats in January” (1-31-12)

“Consumer confidence slumped in January after rebounding in the final months of 2011, The Conference Board said in its consumer sentiment index.”

Bloomberg – “Foreclosures Draw Private Equity as U.S. Rents Homes” (1-31-12)

“Private equity firms are jumping into distressed housing as the U.S. government plans to market 200,000 foreclosed homes as rentals to speed up the economic recovery.”

Inman – “LPS asks Nevada court to throw out consumer fraud suit” (1-31-12)

“Lender Processing Services Inc., provider of real estate technology, services, and mortgage performance data, today filed a motion to dismiss a consumer fraud lawsuit against the company filed by the state of Nevada that alleges the company falsified foreclosure documents.”

Housing Wire – “Foreclosure claims dominate CFPB mortgage complaints” (1-31-12)

“More than 38% of the 2,300 mortgage complaints sent to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau in December related to loan modification and foreclosure concerns, the largest share in this category.”

Hard Money Loan Closed

Rialto, California hard money loan closed by The Norris Group private lending. Real estate investor received loan for $125,000 on a 4 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom home appraised for $200,000.

California Real Estate Investor Events:

Bruce Norris of The Norris Group will be at the Advanced Investing Skills and Strategies 2.5 on February 4, 2012.

The Norris Group posted a new event. Bruce Norris of The Norris Group will be at the 2012 Kick Off Brunch on February 18, 2012.

Looking Back:

Rismedia reported that new home sales increased 17.5% in December of 2010.  However, the Obama Administration reported that sales were still lower than levels at the beginning of the year.  According to Bloomberg, the rate of unoccupied homes increased to 2.7%, making the number of people who own homes the lowest it had been in 10 years.  Standard and Poor’s announced that home prices were still declining and most likely would continue, according to the Realty Times.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

In the latest survey released by the National Association of Realtors, existing home sales increased for the third month in a row.  At the same time, the latest Case-Shiller Index expects home prices will decrease another 1% this year, but they predict an overall 3.8% in the economy by 2013.  Construction on private nonresidential homes is also expected to be on the rise with the growing demand for more construction jobs.

In The News:

Bloomberg – “Construction Rises as Architects Show U.S. Nonresidential Bounce” (1-29-12)

“Private nonresidential construction may pick up this year, as demand grows for new U.S. projects.  The Architecture Billings Index held at 52 last month, a sign of expansion, according to the American Institute of Architects. The commercial and industrial component — a proxy for private building activity — climbed to 54.1 in December, the highest in 10 months, the Washington-based association said Jan. 18.”

Los Angeles Times – “Industrial property leases jumped nationally in 2011″ (1-29-12)

“New industrial real estate leases signed in 2011 returned to levels not seen since prior to the recession of 2008-09, according to year-end statistics for the nation’s industrial market compiled by a real estate brokerage.”

Housing Wire – “Home prices to fall 1% in 2012, rebound in 2013: Fiserv Case-Shiller” (1-30-12)

“The double-dip in home prices that began two years ago continued through the third quarter of 2011, according to the Fiserv (FISV: 62.61 -0.70%) Case-Shiller Indexes released Monday. However, there are signs of a recovery for 2013.”

Bloomberg – “Commercial-Mortgage Bond Rally May Have Run Out of Steam, Citigroup Says” (1-30-12)

“A rally in risky commercial-mortgage bonds may have run its course after a surge in trading, according to Citigroup Inc. (C)  Values on so-called AM and AJ securities, some of which have been cut to junk after being assigned top grades at issuance, increased “remarkably” during the first half of January, Citigroup analysts led by Jeffrey Berenbaum said in a Jan. 27 report.”

Realty Times – “Real Estate Outlook: Existing-Home Sales Rise Again” (1-30-12)

“The National Association of Realtors latest existing-home sales survey shows that sales are on the rise again. This is the third straight month of increases as well the rate rising above year ago levels.”

DS News – “Homeowner Satisfaction Rate at 72%, Highest for Short Sale Purchasers” (1-30-12)

“Seventy-two percent of homeowners say they are satisfied with homeownership, according to a recent survey of more than 1,400 homeowners conducted by HomeGain, a provider of online marketing programs that connect agents and brokers with home buyers and sellers.”

San Francisco Chronicle – “Bernanke Beats Obama for Mortgage-Bond Investors: Credit Markets” (1-30-12)

“Mortgage-bond investors have been betting that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will do more to aid housing than President Barack Obama.  Government-backed mortgage bonds are poised to return the most this month since October relative to Treasuries, with the Fed helping push yields on lower-coupon notes that guide loan rates to record lows.”

Inman – “Report: Freddie Mac bets against homeowner refinancings” (1-30-12)

“In 2010 and 2011, mortgage giant Freddie Mac invested billions of dollars on bets that homeowners with high-interest mortgages would not be able to refinance at today’s lower interest rates, according to a joint investigation conducted by NPR and ProPublica, a nonprofit, independent news agency.”

Wall Street Journal – “Warehouses Fill, Brightening Industrial Space” (1-30-12)

“One often-overlooked corner of commercial real estate showed signs of stabilizing in the fourth quarter, as healthy demand for warehouse space helped push down the industrial vacancy rate.”

Bloomberg – “CBRE Drops on Investors’ Transaction-Volume Scrutiny: San Francisco Mover” (1-30-12)

“CBRE Group Inc., the world’s largest commercial real estate services firm, fell the most in six weeks as investors focus on fourth-quarter transaction volumes ahead of earnings reports.”

Housing Wire – “New York 2011 home sales off pace, prices stabilize” (1-30-12)

“Fueled by a strong fourth quarter, home sales in New York state rebounded somewhat but still finished 3.9% behind 2010 figures. The New York State Association of Realtors said the more positive 2010 numbers likely reflect the boost from the federal homebuyers’ tax credit.”

Hard Money Loan Closed

Los Angeles, California hard money loan closed by The Norris Group private lending. Real estate investor received loan for $165,000 on a 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home appraised for $244,000.

California Real Estate Investor Events:

Bruce Norris of The Norris Group will be at the Advanced Investing Skills and Strategies 2.5 on February 4, 2012.

The Norris Group posted a new event. Bruce Norris of The Norris Group will be at the 2012 Kick Off Brunch on February 18, 2012.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

Sources:
Foreclosure Properties Fall to 20% of Home Buys
Loan Modifications Are on the Decline: Moody’s
First-time unemployment claims climb
American economy not healthy yet, but it’s healing
Pending Home Sales Decline Monthly, Rise Annually
Contracts to Purchase Existing U.S. Homes Hold Near 19-Month High: Economy
FHFA home prices fall 1.8% in November
Sales of U.S. New Homes Unexpectedly Decline in December
30-Year Mortgage Rates Rise From Record Low
Fed: Benchmark Rate Will Stay Low Until ’14
California Home Foreclosure Notices Decline 12% as Lenders Change Policies
First Three Bank Failures of 2012 to Cost FDIC $244M
Illinois AG Sues S&P
Eric Schneiderman promises aggressive financial fraud probe
Two banks signal they may join mortgage deal
Senate clears $1.2 trillion debt ceiling raise
Obama Announces New Refi Program in State of the Union Address
Wells Fargo launches pilot programs to clear LA, Atlanta housing inventory
FHFA: Principal reduction would cost Fannie, Freddie $100 billion
Programmers Size Up Bank Borrowers With Algorithms Rather Than FICO Scores

Today’s News Synopsis:

In this week’s video, Aaron Norris gives the news of the week in the world of real estate and other big news of the week.  The Commerce Department said the growth rate for the gross domestic product was averaged to be 2.8% in the last quarter of 2011.  LPS reported a 30 year-over-year decrease in new loan originations in November.  At the same time, loan delinquencies also decreased 25% last month.  In other news, Freddie Mac reported an increase in the average mortgage rate.

In The News:

Bloomberg - “D.R. Horton Reports First-Quarter Profit as Homebuilding Revenue Increases” (1-27-12)

“D.R. Horton Inc. (DHI), the largest U.S. homebuilder by volume, reported first-quarter profit that beat analyst estimates after a year-earlier loss as revenue from home sales rose.”

Housing Wire - “New originations drop 30%, loan delinquencies decline” (1-27-12)

“Low interest rates are spurring some activity in the mortgage market, but opportunities for borrowers with low credit scores are limited, according to the latest Mortgage Monitor Report from LPS Applied Analytics.  New loan originations, overall, fell 30% year-over-year in November, with LPS reporting 537,720 originations in November, compared to 724,364 in December 2010. The report did not include new origination amounts for December 2011.”

CNN Money - “SEC to step up scrutiny of private equity firms” (1-27-12)

“The private equity world is struggling to stay in the shadows.  It’s harder to do so with Republican presidential contender Mitt Romney getting criticized for his private equity roots. If that weren’t enough, the Securities and Exchange Commission says it plans to step up scrutiny of the industry as well.”

Realty Times - “Mortgage Rates Reverse Course on Positive Housing Data” (1-27-12)

“In Freddie Mac’s results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® the average mortgage rates climbed as the housing market ended 2011 on a high note.”

San Francisco Chronicle – “Unexpected dip in U.S. new home sales in December” (1-27-12)

“Sales of new U.S. homes unexpectedly declined in December for the first time in four months, capping the slowest year on record for builders.”

DS News - “Michigan, Ohio Lawmakers Propose Large-Scale Demolition” (1-27-12)

“With vacant and deteriorating properties taking a toll on communities throughout Ohio and Michigan, lawmakers from the two states are proposing large-scale demolition as a means of easing the burden of these problematic properties.”

Housing Wire – “GDP growth rate of 2.8% for 4Q” (1-27-12)

“Higher readings on private inventory investment, consumer spending and and residential investment led the Commerce Department to estimate the gross domestic product growth rate at 2.8% for the final three months of 2011.”

DS News - “Administration Revamps HAMP to Reach More Borrowers” (1-27-12)

“The Obama administration has announced changes to its flagship foreclosure prevention initiative – the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) – which officials say will expand its reach to more distressed homeowners.”

Housing Wire – “January consumer sentiment posts 11-month high” (1-27-12)

“Consumer sentiment climbed to an index level of 75 in January, the best reading of the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan survey in nearly a year.”

CNN Money - “Mortgage probe unveiled as foreclosure talks loom” (1-27-12)

“President Obama’s latest probe into the mortgage meltdown will have more power than past efforts, and federal officials say it won’t derail a possible $20 billion settlement for underwater and foreclosed homeowners.”

Hard Money Loan Closed

Riverside, California hard money loan closed by The Norris Group private lending. Real estate investor received loan for $85,000 on a 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom home appraised for $135,000.

California Real Estate Investor Events:

Bruce Norris of The Norris Group will be at the Advanced Investing Skills and Strategies 2.5 on February 4, 2012.

The Norris Group posted a new event.  Bruce Norris of The Norris Group will be at the 2012 Kick Off Brunch on February 18, 2012.

Looking Back:

The NAR claimed pending home sales increased 2% in December 2010. Statistics from Freddie Mac showed mortgage rates increased to 4.8% the week of January 22, 2011. According to the Labor Department, initial jobless claims climbed nearly 12.7% the previous week. The MLS reported sales of existing houses and condos totaled $15.5 billion in 2010.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

Robert Kleinhenz

Chief Economist for LAEDC

(Full Bio)

This week Bruce Norris is joined once again by Robert Kleinhenz. Robert is the Chief Economist of the Kyser Center for Economic Research, which conducts research on regional, state, and national economies. Dr. Kleinhenz has a Bachelor’s Degree from the University of Michigan, a Masters and Doctorate from USC, all in economics. Prior to joining LAEDC, he served as Deputy Chief Economist at the California Association of Realtors and taught economics for over 15 years, most recently at California State University Fullerton.

Bruce said he recently poked around at a refi and quoted a rate that he could barely understand. He said it was something like 3 7/8 for a 30-year mortgage. Bruce said going back 30 years when he became an investor and had refinanced his house at the time to get the money; it was perfect timing back in 1981 when he paid 17 ½ % fixed. Robert said there may have been a couple recessions in between, but what a difference two decades makes. Bruce wonders if when you are 22 and just starting out if you are thinking that it is in any way normal where you are only accustomed to seeing numbers that start with a 5 or a 4, and he wonders how different the future will be with the particular rate going forward. In this case you are comparing what happened back in the early 1980s to the interest rate situation today.

Robert said if he were to place a bet on what was likely to be more normal in the foreseeable future, he would look at the interest rate climate of today and not of the early 1980s. Back in that time we had high rates of inflation, and we had an economy that was in transition and stagnating in several sectors for several reasons. The main thing was we had a lot of inflation, partly driven by high oil prices. This in turn led to high interest rates and at the time the Paul Volcker of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York led efforts to bring the reign of inflation down. One of the ways it did that was by increasing rates by making it very difficult to borrow. This was a much different climate, and hopefully economists have learned a little bit about keeping inflation in check. Hopefully policymakers have listened to the economists who talk about it, and we are most likely going to stay in an environment over the next few years that either has low or moderate inflation and not double-digit inflation.

Bruce read a quote saying, “Experience is something that lets you recognize a mistake when you make it again.” What is interesting about not being concerned about the people that are in charge of policies is their opinion of how benign the housing problem was going to be. This bothered Bruce; and Robert reiterated saying policymakers are humans like us and sometimes don’t get the information right and sometimes still make poor judgments. We definitely have to be concerned about the fact that mistakes are made on the policy side just as mistakes were made on the business side of things. This gave rise to the situation we face today.

Bruce wondered if Robert was concerned about deflation if not inflation. He said it is not that he is not concerned about inflation, but he does not expect to see high levels of inflation over the foreseeable future, and that is predicated on policymakers and their ability to make the right decisions. It hinges on the ability of the Congress to come up with a credible plan to take care of these federal deficits over the long term. Somebody has to be interested in a bond that the risk-level seems appropriate with the return. What is interesting is the one-year T-Bill in Greece is paying 402% as of yesterday, which would probably give you an idea that you should not invest in it as you are not going to get your principle back.

The likelihood that the United States would find itself in the same position that Greece finds itself in is very low, so we should not be too alarmed. There is a very real possibility that we may face a debt situation, but there are several moving parts here. Fortunately, the ace in the hole that we have here in the United States is the fact that the U.S. dollar is the reserve currency, and our Treasuries tend to be the flight to safety for so many investors around the globe when things go awry elsewhere. Bruce did not know how profound an effect this would have because this is exactly what happened when you talk about a ten-year T-Bill. Most of us would have anticipated seeing something under 4% was pretty astonishing, and then it was under 2%. If someone has not already refinanced their house, you definitely need to be sitting up and taking a look at rates today because those rates are fundamentally driven by what is happening with the yield on the ten-year treasury, which nobody would have expected would fall below 3 or 4%, and here it has consistently been under 2% for quite some time. All of this is courtesy of something that is really outside of our borders. Part of this also stems from the Fed’s commitment to maintain low rates over the foreseeable future through the middle of 2013. There was this policy move and effort to insure that long rates stay low partly to help the housing market and to get investors to pay attention to the stock market where it would theoretically be better returns. There are a number of angles behind the Fed’s move, but this has served to also keep rates down.

To insure that something like what was aforementioned is in the Fed’s control, they would have a limited ability to do it. If the market moves in a big way, they may not be able to buck that trend. However, it does accomplish that end by buying or selling securities in such a way as to maintain rates at the levels that they are targeting at this time. We have a 0-fit fund rate and a mortgage rate under 4%. If we were to have an issue where the Euro zone went into a tough recession, Bruce wondered if there would be a domino effect here that could possibly kick us into a another recession. Robert said the cards we are looking at in 2012 include the situation happening in Europe. If their economy is weakened or there is some concern that we have already seen of economies tipping into recession; then that could jeopardize the situation here in the United States. We’re out of the recession and growing and now in the expansionary phase coming out of the recession, so that could tamper the growth or lead to a stall out in the economy here in the United States. This is economic linkage between the European economies and the U.S. economy.

The other linkage is the financial linkage. If the sovereign debt problem in Europe, not just in Greece but also Italy and possibly France, give rise to problems with banks not unlike what we had a few years ago at the height of the financial crisis, then that could stymie activity in the financial world once again. As a result of that, it could have a feedback effect on the real economy and either slow the growth pattern of the U.S. economy or tip it into recession. You have two things coming out of Europe that have the potential to either slow down or derail our current expansion. When the United States had defaults on the mortgages, mortgage-backed securities, and the CDOs, it had quite a direct effect on the people that invested in the banks.

Bruce wondered if the United States has as much of the investment there in Europe, or is it mostly contained inside of their own banking system. Robert answered that it was incestuous in a way in that there are flows capital that go across international boundaries through commercial banks; so if there is a problem that shows up over there, it may also show up on the balance sheets of banks over here. It is through this particular conduit or channel that we would see problems occur. Robert said he would be very surprised if we have something as calamitous as what we saw in 2008. To look at this situation in the financial sector, we have to recognize that so many financial decisions rest on some confidence of what is going to be occurring in the future. If you lack confidence in the future or just don’t know, then you are unlikely to make a decision or make a decision to do nothing. The problem with financial crises that we went through in 2008 is that they have long-lasting effects and wreak havoc on consumer and business confidence. They then leave businesses and households to sit on their hands until they get a sense that the coast is clear. That is one of the reasons this recession was so deep and continues to keep going as long as it has been. There is a real concern about the outlook, and it is reflected in consumer confidence and business confidence that has just not really shown marked improvement over the last couple years.

Bruce wondered if there is real concern about the oil world and if there is fear about aggressive actions such as the closing of the straight. Robert said if we take a step back to 2011 for a moment and think about all of the wild cards that played out in 2011, there are a lot and a number are still playable in 2012. There was earlier discussion on the European debt situation, which is a wild card that has been played several times over the past few years. The Greek debt crisis seems to be the one that is played most frequently. If you take a look at the Arab Spring, that gave rise to disruptions in the flow of oil and gave rise to higher oil prices. There is always the chance that something in the world of energy that triggers an increase in the price of energy, oil or otherwise, there is always the chance that this could slow down economic activity if not derail a growing economy. The other wild card that we have to contend with in 2012 that we also dealt with in 2011 was political. This year the big political wild card is what will happen in November with the election. It does appear as though we are going to continue to be stepping carefully through 2012, hoping that these wild cards do not wreak too much havoc on the economy. If they do, then they have an adverse impact on confidence. If there is an adverse impact on confidence, then the growth we anticipated is just not going to materialize.

In the employment sector, Bruce wondered how important construction is to the improvement of the unemployment. Robert said it is an important segment of the economy but is essentially flat on its back right now in California and elsewhere around the country. If you look at residential activity in the state of California, permits for example, they are just a fraction of what they were in years past. They have been at this very low level for just a fraction of any long-run numbers for the last few years, but it makes sense. If so many foreclosed or distressed properties are available for sale at a fraction of the cost of new construction, it is going to be sometime until after the backlog of distressed properties gets substantially moved before we see construction pick up in a noticeable way. There is a broad market for housing where distressed property values are probably way down on other properties. Things are also the same way with commercial construction. There are a lot of high vacancy rates for office buildings these days; less so for retail and certainly much less so for industrial. Industrial in Southern California is actually outperforming markets around the country. It has less than a 5% vacancy factor, so it is very much a mixed bag. However, construction is going to be recovering slowly, so meanwhile we should take a step back.

In a general sense, the labor market seems to be at a turning point where in order to produce more in 2012, it seems very likely that employers are actually going to have to add people, not just ask their existing labor force to work longer hours. There should be a general upturn in employment in 2012 compared to 2011. It is just a question of how much of an upturn there will be. We need somewhere around 300,000 jobs added per month across the nation in order to bring the unemployment down in a noticeable way in a reasonable amount of time.

The most recent report, the one for December, showed that we added 200,000 jobs, which was a great number based on the recent history. It is just not a high enough level of growth to bring the unemployment rate down. At 200,000 jobs per month, it could take 4 or 5 years for us to get back to a 6% unemployment rate nationally. At 300,000 jobs per month, it would only take a little less than two years, which is a huge difference. At the present time, we should be banking on the 200,000 jobs per month, barring any of these wild cards being played. If that happens for a few months time, then we might actually see the economy gain some ground.

The sector that is in the driver’s seat here is the consumer sector. Consumers are weighed down by uncertainty about their jobs and their economic outlook. The fact that are assets are not worth what they had been worth and the fact that they may have some credit constraints, access to credit may not be what it had been, especially with respect to buying homes. All those things are constraining growth and consumer spending, and that is really the main thing that we need to look for in terms of the driver behind the overall economy. If consumer spending picks up, then we are going to see job gains pick up as well.

In looking at a chart for mortgage equity withdrawal in 2002-2006, it was responsible for a lot of GDP growth. This driver has certainly been diminished if not eliminated from most people’s possibilities. As we go forward, it is certainly going to be the case that the American consumer is still going to have a place for the use of credit. They may not have access to the same amount of credit that was available when they were able to use their home equity in order to finance so many things. This is not a bad thing because it does seem to have created problems, especially problems that have spilled back into the housing sector. We do not want to go back this way, but we do expect to see that some loosening of credit access on the part of consumers would probable enable the consumer sector to get a little bit more steam and give a little bit more push to the overall economy.

Another issue is shadow inventory. Bruce wondered what Robert’s thoughts on what shadow inventory contains are. The definition of shadow inventory has changed over the last couple years, so Bruce wondered what Robert feels is the shadow inventory and what the best resolution for it is. Robert said it is useful for us to get a sense of how long we are going to be dealing with large numbers of distressed properties. If we use that as the definition and ask what things going to be like two years out, then the shadow inventory is the inventory that is on the books, such as MLS inventory for existing homes plus unsold new homes, and the unsold inventory for existing homes in the state of California, which is about 5 months inventory. Five months inventory is enough to actually sustain increases in prices and not decreases in prices because the average is about seven months, so we are at seven months if we are under five. By then we would go through the foreclosure pipeline, and the thing we would pick up would be the number of REO properties that are held by banks in inventory. This is equal to about another 2 ½ months of inventory. Now you are getting over seven months when you take the five mentioned earlier and add 2 ½ months, then there properties that are scheduled for auction and also another 2 ½ months inventory. However, the timeline for that is a much longer timeline.

For the REO properties, the point in time they go into inventory might be about 6 months or so before they are prepped and sold. The relevant shadow inventory number to use for current market conditions and understand what is happening in the current market is probably MLS based inventory plus new homes plus REOs in inventory. If we are asking the question about how long this is going to be with us, then we are going to go further up the foreclosure pipeline and pick up the properties that are in a pre-foreclosure state, such as an NOD or delinquent property. If this is the case, then you are looking at another 2 ½ months inventory. This is simply by taking the number of properties that are in pre-foreclosure state, which is roughly 100,000, and looking at that relative to total annual sales. You also have to look at the timeline. An NOD that is filed in January of 2012 is probably about 18 months away from going into the REO inventory. These numbers are roughly 100,000 in REO inventory and roughly 100,000 NODs plus delinquencies at the present time for the state of California. The timeframe is not anywhere close to normal as the statutory timeframe is about 6 months. Because of different kinds of policies and other factors, this timeline has been stretched out; and a number of lender and servicers have encountered a number of problems along the way.

The bottom line is as we are going further up the ladder and actually including more and more things in this notion of shadow inventory, we also have to figure out how long it is going to take to push all the properties through the foreclosure pipeline and out through the new home market. Therefore, we are looking all the way into 2014 before things get any closer to normal levels of distressed properties. The housing market is going to feel like it has recovered before that period of time, but we are going to have substantial numbers of distressed properties working through the housing market over the next three years. In Riverside, 62% of the sales are either short sales or foreclosures, which means when you sell 1,000 homes, only 380 buyers emerge. Everyone else is credit damage. This is going to take a while to heal.

If you want to learn more about Robert’s company, the Kaiser Foundation, go to LAEDC at www.laedc.org. Here, you can find out about the annual forecast event that will be happening this February 15th in downtown Los Angeles. This is a ticketed event.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

New U.S. home sales declined 2.2% in December according to Bloomberg.  In other news, 30-year mortgage rates increased for the first time from their lowest recorded level, having come about after the Federal Reserve promised to keep interest rates near 0.  In a recent vote in the Senate, Obama was allowed to raise the debt ceiling to $16.4 trillion.

In The News:

Bloomberg – “Foreclosure Properties Fall to 20% of Home Buys” (1-25-12)

“Foreclosure and distressed sales fell to 20 percent of U.S. home purchases in the third quarter of last year as legal scrutiny of property seizures reduced the number of deals, according to RealtyTrac Inc.”

DS News - “Illinois AG Sues S&P” (1-26-12)

“Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan filed a lawsuit against Standard & Poor’s (S&P) this week alleging the ratings agency inflated ratings of mortgage-backed securities investments, an act Madigan believes stemmed the financial crisis.”

Bloomberg - “Sales of U.S. New Homes Unexpectedly Decline in December” (1-26-12)

“Sales of new U.S. homes unexpectedly declined in December for the first time in four months, capping the slowest year on record for builders.”

NAHB - “Remodeling Market Index Rises to Five-Year High” (1-26-12)

“Remodeling sentiment rose to the highest level in five years, according to the National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB) Remodeling Market Index (RMI) for the fourth quarter of 2011. Released today, the RMI increased to 46.6 in the fourth quarter from 41.7 in the third quarter.”

Bloomberg – “30-Yr Mortgage Rates Rise From Record Low” (1-26-12)

“Rates for U.S. 30-year mortgages climbed from the lowest level on record after Federal Reserve officials pledged to keep their benchmark interest rate near zero through at least late 2014 to help bolster the economy.”

Housing Wire - “Unemployed homebuilders migrate to multifamily jobs” (1-26-12)

“Single-family housing starts plummeted in 2011, but construction workers are finding jobs anyway by migrating to multifamily projects.”

Los Angeles Times - “Recovery roadblock?  Mortgage burdens keep job seekers from moving” (1-26-12)

“In what could end up becoming a vicious cycle of economic hurt, struggling homeowners who aren’t relocating for new jobs may stymie employers’ long-range growth.  So says a report from outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc., which finds that about 7.5% of job hunters who found new positions ended up moving to a new home for work in the latter half of 2011.”

CNN Money - “First-time unemployment claims climb” (1-26-12)

“After plunging the week before, first-time claims for unemployment benefits ticked up last week.  The Labor Department reported Thursday that 377,000 people filed for initial unemployment benefits in the week ended Jan. 21, up 21,000 from a revised reading of 356,000 claims the week before.”

San Francisco Chronicle - “Economy gains as businesses spend more, fire less” (1-26-12)

“Businesses are growing more confident in the economy, investing in more equipment and laying off fewer workers.  Government figures on manufacturing and unemployment claims released Thursday raised hopes on the eve of a report on how much the economy grew in the October-December quarter.”

Bloomberg - “Commercial Property Sales Rose to More Than $220 Billion in U.S. Last Year” (1-26-12)

“Commercial property sales rose 57 percent to more than $220 billion U.S. last year, led by retail properties and garden apartments, Real Capital Analytics Inc. said in a report today.”

Housing Wire – “Senate clears $1.2 trillion debt ceiling raise” (1-26-12)

“The Senate voted 44-52 Thursday clearing President Obama to raise the debt ceiling by $1.2 trillion.  The ceiling will go to $16.4 trillion and, according to some estimates, may be breached again around the time of the November elections.”

Hard Money Loan Closed

Hesperia, California hard money loan closed by The Norris Group private lending. Real estate investor received loan for $40,000 on a 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home appraised for $67,000.

California Real Estate Investor Events:

Bruce Norris of The Norris Group will be at the Advanced Investing Skills and Strategies 2.5 on February 4, 2012.

The Norris Group posted a new event.  Bruce Norris of The Norris Group will be at the 2012 Kick Off Brunch on February 18, 2012.

Looking Back:

The MBA reported mortgage application volume fell 12.9% the week of January 21, 2011. According to the Commerce Department, new home sales dropped 7.6% year over year. $1.5 trillion in commercial debt was set to mature by 2014. A total of 58,020 loan modifications were canceled, said the Treasury Department.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

Bloomberg reported the sales of pending homes decreased 3.5% last month, and at the same time contracts for existing home sales are at the highest in 19 months.  In his latest State of the Union Address, President Barack Obama announced that he intends start a new refinance program allowing homeowners to refinance at low interest rates and therefore save almost $3,000.

In The News:

Bloomberg - “Contracts to Purchase Existing U.S. Homes Hold Near 19-Month High: Economy” (1-25-12)

“The number of Americans signing contracts to buy previously owned homes in December held near a 19-month high, showing the stabilization in the market that began in late 2011 will extend into the new year.”

DS News – “Obama Announces New Refi Program in State of the Union Address” (1-25-12)

“Despite rumors earlier in the week that President Barack Obama would announce a settlement between the state attorneys general and the nation’s top servicers in his State of the Union address, the president made no such announcement Tuesday night.  However, he did announce his intention to save millions of homeowners approximately $3,000 annually on their mortgages by allowing them to refinance at today’s low interest rates”

Housing Wire – “Wells Fargo launches pilot programs to clear LA, Atlanta housing inventory” (1-25-12)

“Wells Fargo (WFC: 30.32 -0.72%) will launch two multibillion-dollar programs this February to clear housing inventory in Los Angeles and Atlanta.”

Bloomberg – “Fed: Benchmark Rate Will Stay Low Until Late 2014″ (1-25-12)

“Federal Reserve officials said their benchmark interest rate will stay low until at least late 2014 and anticipate that unemployment will remain high and inflation ‘subdued’.”

DS News - “ISGN Enters Into $20M Line of Credit from JPMorgan” (1-25-12)

“ISGN Corporation has obtained a $20 million secured line of credit from JPMorgan Chase., the company announced Wednesday.”

NAHB - “Builders Commend White House Focus on Helping Home Owners, Seek Additional Steps to Spur Housing” (1-25-12)

“The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) commends President Obama for offering proposals in last night’s State of the Union address to help families stay in their homes and stanch foreclosures, and is urging policymakers to take additional actions to mend the housing market and boost the economy.”

Housing Wire - “FHFA home prices fall 1.8% in November” (1-25-12)

“Home prices declined 1.8% in November from a year earlier in the latest Federal Housing Finance Agency price index.  The seasonally adjusted index rose 1% from October, when prices fell a revised 0.7% on a monthly basis.”

Inman - “10 metros with biggest 1-year rise in real estate list prices” (1-25-12)

“No metro areas west of El Paso, Texas, earned a spot among the top 10 U.S. hot spots with the highest year-over-year hikes in median list price during 2011. Another Texas metro, San Antonio, ranked fifth on the list, based on data provided by online real estate portal Realtor.com.”

Los Angeles Times - “Eric Schneiderman promises aggressive financial fraud probe” (1-25-12)

“New York Atty. Gen. Eric Schneiderman, who was tapped by President Obama to lead a new Financial Fraud Enforcement Task Force, promised Wednesday to move aggressively to coordinate state and local investigations into the causes of the subprime mortgage market meltdown.”

Housing Wire - “Fitch downgrades RMBS bond ratings on default risk” (1-25-12)

“The default risk on 489 bonds backed by residential mortgage-backed securities prompted Fitch Ratings to slash the bonds’ ratings this week.  The bonds are part of 291 different residential mortgage-securities deals.”

DS News – “Pending Home Sales Decline Monthly, Rise Annually” (1-25-12)

“After reaching a 19-month high in November, pending home sales declined 3.5 percent in December, according to the National Association of Realtors’ (NAR) Pending Home Sales Index.”

Hard Money Loan Closed

Los Angeles, California hard money loan closed by The Norris Group private lending. Real estate investor received loan for $165,000 on a 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home appraised for $244,000.

California Real Estate Investor Events:

Bruce Norris of The Norris Group will be at the Investors Workshops and will be interviewing Shawn Watkins today.

Bruce Norris of The Norris Group will be at the Advanced Investing Skills and Strategies 2.5 on February 4, 2012.

Looking Back:

69,799 Notices of Default were recorded during the 4th quarter of 2010, according to MDA DataQuick. The Case-Schiller Index showed home prices decreased 1% during November 2010 in the nation’s top 20 metropolitan areas. University of the Pacific estimated unemployment would remain above 10% in California for 3 more years. IEmergent expected mortgage loan origination to fall below $1 trillion in 2011.

For more information about The Norris Group’s California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor calendar. You’ll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.