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Archive for January, 2010

159-TNG Radio – Philip Tirone 1-30-10

Friday, January 29th, 2010

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Philip Tirone

The Mortgage Equity Group, Inc. and www.7Stepsto720.com

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This week Bruce is joined by Philip Tirone. Philip is the president of the Mortgage Equity Group, and author of Seven Steps to a 720 Credit Score.

Philip got in the business in 1997; near the beginning of the boom. For the first 9 years of Philip’s loan career, he continuously saw regulators loosen the business guidelines. The people that he worked with were making substantial incomes from 2004 to 2006. There were some loan agents in Philip’s office who were driving Bentleys. Most of those people are now out of Philip’s business, because they matched their income with their expenses, and they lost their wealth during the recession. This reminded Bruce of a recent trustee sale he attended in which many of the homes being sold were previously owned by mortgage brokers.

Three years ago, a mortgage banker was someone who lent their money to property buyers. The second tier of mortgage banking in which a regional firm lends their own money through a warehouse line. Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Washington Mutual portfoliod their high risk loans. These high risk loans were what caused other big banks to fail.

Mortgage brokers are individuals who can go to banks and take loans. Many banks have retail divisions, in which people can walk off the street, and they have whole sale divisions, in which banks would sell mortgages at lower rates to people who could sell mortgages. Whole sale mortgages allow mortgage banks to sell their loans at a lower rate to people who will bring them business.

Presently, 99 percent of loans being done right now are going to the government through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Fannie and Freddie are the mortgage backed security outlet. Because loans are being heavily regulated, there is little difference between mortgage bankers and mortgage brokers. This is because there are no longer a large variety of loan programs with different fees; everyone is selling the same product.

The value of a mortgage broker is more appreciated for large mortgages, because they know how to get the deals. Unfortunately, those loans have dried up. The amount of financing being done over $729,000 has probably decreased by over 80 percent. This is partially because mortgage brokers could use stated income loans. There were some scenarios where stated income loans were not a bad idea. For example, a company owner with $5 million in the bank, who wants to buy a $3 million property with 30 percent down, is a good applicant for a stated income loan. Stated income loans did not always mean “no proof” loans. When Philip first got into the business, bankers would check out bank statements. Little by little, stated income became a no document program.

Bruce Norris estimates that over 1,000 foreclosures will occur within the next 30 days on houses valued above $1 million. It is not easy to refinance a bill that expensive, and there are not enough people to buy expensive homes like that.

Another presently occurring problem is poor appraisals. Philip refinanced for a man who bought a loan for $850,000. The value of his property increased to over $1 million. When he ordered the appraisal, the appraisal value came in at $850,000. The borrower was very frustrated with his property’s devaluation, but he didn’t choose to try and sell the property immediately. Later on, he asked for another appraisal, and the appraisal value came in at $1,170,000. These mistakes are making investors want to pull their hair out. We are bringing in appraisers from outside areas who don’t know about the areas they are working in. The AMCs are supposed to behave as a wall between lenders and mortgage bankers, but the reality is that the lenders who were defrauding the banks are not in the business any more.

Bruce asks Philip to discuss the different regulations that have come into the industry. The regulation in the loan industry is so overdone right now; it is literally causing people in the industry to do 2 to 3 times as much work. Regulation X states that mortgage bankers must give extremely precise estimates. These estimates must be so precise that if the escrow fee comes even $200 above the estimate, then the lender must pay for it. This need for precision in estimates is causing people to require over-disclosure. People are complaining about how expensive the fees are, and Philip has to explain that we are in a terrible scenario with over regulation. Any time new regulations come out the loan process is slowed down. For example, one month ago Philip submitted a loan on a $2.5 million property with a 5 year fixed loan, but he later decided that he wanted a 3 year fixed loan. Once he chose to make that change, everything in the loan process had to stop. The underwriter couldn’t underwrite it. If you send the corrections through email then you have to wait at least 3 days. If you are an investor selling a property, you will not be able to sell any faster than within 30 days.

Throughout Philip’s career, refinances and purchases have equally dominated the industry. Currently, more people are doing refinancing because of the great rates.

In 2005 and 2006, about 85 percent of the people who came to Philip were able to get loans. In 2009, only about 15 percent of Philip’s potential customers were able to get loans. Bruce asks what happened to those people who made them incapable of getting loans. Philip says that it is a combination of bad personal scenarios and bad lending policies. Some have severely damaged their savings. In the majority of the cases, the lending guidelines are the cause of trouble. Philip could get great approval for a buyer with a statistically low default risk, but now mortgage bankers are not allowed to back anyone with a default ratio over 45 percent. These policies also prevent refinancing for people who could safely take on extra debt. Some people are being restricted from getting a loan, because they bought a car that slightly tipped them over the 45 percent risk scale. A great borrower could increase their lease by 42 dollars, and then disable themselves from getting a loan. Philip advises people who are looking for a loan to not put anything on their credit card. Even paying off a collection account can damage your credit score.

Jumbo loans include anything over $729,000. These loans do not have typical 30-year fixed loan rates. A five year fixed loan will have an interest rate in the low 5s, and ten year fixed loan rates will be in the high 5s.

Philip’s website is www.philiptirone.com. His phone number is 310-453-1901. He will handle any kind of mortgage throughout California.

Reserve requirements for banks have changed significantly for those involved in jumbo loans. Jumbo loans must be backed by six months’ income or 12 months’ payment, but this can vary depending on the situation. Reserve requirements are not as black and white as credit scores.

Bruce and Philip will continue this discussion next week.

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 1/29/10

Friday, January 29th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

Foresight Analytics estimates that between 2010 and 2014, $770bn in commercial loans will be on properties in negative equity. According to the Commerce Department, the U.S. economy expanded in the 4th quarter at a six year record pace. RealtyTrac forecasts that foreclosures probably will reach 3 million this year. Henry Paulson claimed that Russia encouraged China to force a bailout of the largest U.S. mortgage-finance companies.

In The News:

Housing Wire“DoJ Mortgage Probes May Overextend Authority: K&L Gates” (1-29-10)

“The Department of Justice (DoJ) initiative to beef up investigations of discriminatory mortgage lending and servicing practices will result in more numerous and forceful reviews of mortgage lenders and servicers, including investigations that appear to merge fair lending and consumer protection principles, according to an analysis of the proposal written by global law firm K&L Gates. The firm also warns that the DoJ may be over-extending departmental authority in doing so.”

Housing Wire“Tougher Times Coming for Commercial Real Estate” (1-29-10)

“Between 2010 and 2014, $770bn in commercial loans will be on properties in negative equity, and may need to be written down, according to a study by Foresight Analytics, a real estate research firm. The report is likely to only add to the woes surrounding the current commercial real estate (CRE) sector.”

Housing Wire“Fed MBS Purchases 93% Complete with Another $12bn” (1-29-10)

“The Federal Reserve Bank of New York in the week ending January 27th continued to buy mortgage assets from government-sponsored entities as the program winds-down to a close by the end of the quarter. The Fed bought a total of $12.5bn in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) – $5.1bn Freddie Mac (FRE: 1.1799 -0.01%) MBS, $4.7bn Fannie Mae (FNM: 0.9868 -1.32%) MBS and $2.7bn Ginnie Mae MBS, according to a summary of purchases. The New York Fed also sold $500m of MBS in the same week, bringing the net purchases to $12bn, the same as last week.”

Bloomberg - “U.S. Economy: Growth Jumps 5.7%, Fastest Pace in Six Years” (1-29-10)

“The U.S. economy expanded in the fourth quarter at the fastest pace in six years as factories cranked up assembly lines, indicating the recovery may be strong enough to be weaned from government support. The 5.7 percent increase in gross domestic product reported by the Commerce Department in Washington today exceeded the 4.8 percent median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Separate reports showed consumer sentiment and a barometer of business activity rose more than forecast in January.”

Bloomberg - “Obama Housing Rescue Threatened by Foreclosures, Unemployment” (1-29-10)

“Foreclosures probably will reach 3 million this year, surpassing the record of 2.82 million in 2009, according to Irvine, California-based RealtyTrac Inc. That would more than offset an estimated 448,000-unit rise in home sales, based on the average forecast of the National Association of Realtors, the Mortgage Bankers Association and Fannie Mae.”

Bloomberg - “Paulson Says Russia Urged China to Dump Fannie, Freddie Bonds” (1-29-10)

“Russia urged China to dump its Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bonds in 2008 in a bid to force a bailout of the largest U.S. mortgage-finance companies, former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said.”

Orange County Register“Will buyers rush to cash in on tax credit?” (1-29-10)

“the spring and summer buying seasons are about to kick in. The tax credit deadline will likely add to the sales volume, but it’s critical to remember that ‘first timer’ and ’second home’ contracts must not only be signed by April 30 – escrows must close by June 30! Short sale property escrows have a very hard time closing within 60 days right now.”

Realty Times“Aging Buyers Want Easy, Comfortable Homes with First-Floor Master Bedroom” (1-29-10)

“The Baby Boomer generation makes up about 28 percent of the population and has some interesting statistics. According to BabyBoomerMagazine.com, this group has greater wealth than any other, controls 70 percent of the total net worth of American households, and accounts for 40 percent of total consumer demand.”

In The News:

One year ago, the CBIA announced that 65,380 building permits were issued from 2008 to 2009. The Commerce Department reported that sales of single-family homes decreased by 14.7 percent. The House of Representatives approved a $819-billion stimulus package. Freddie Mac reported that the 30-year fixed mortgage dipped to 5.10 percent.

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 1/28/10

Thursday, January 28th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell by 0.01 percent from last week. Research from RealtyTrac shows that California and Florida account for 17 of the nation’s 20 worst housing markets. The Federal Reserve declared that the U.S. economy is now in recovery.

In The News:

Housing Wire“Freddie Mac Mortgage Refinance Purchases Swell 41%” (1-28-10)

“The volume of refinance loans bought by mortgage giant Freddie Mac (FRE: 1.1799 -2.49%) continued to grow in December, swelling 41% from the previous month to $27.3bn.”

Housing Wire“Capstead Writes Off $40m in Commercial Real Estate Liability” (1-28-10)

“According to analysts at Barclays Capital the worst performing commercial property sector is hotels. Last quarter, they note hotels saw a 177bp increase, to 11.4%, in the 30+ day delinquency rate, led by the $200m Renaissance Mayflower Hotel, located near the White House, and $130m Trinity Hotel Portfolio, a hotel investment consortium, both of which were transferred to a special servicer, likely for an orderly liquidation.”

Housing Wire“Freddie Rates Dip, Say Below 5%” (1-28-10)

“Freddie Mac’s (FRE: 1.17 -3.31%) weekly survey put the average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) at 4.98% with an average 0.6-origination point for the week ending January 28. That’s a slight dip from last week, when Freddie said the rate was 4.99%. A year ago, the average 30-year FRM rate was 5.10%.”

Bloomberg“Lenders Pursue Mortgage Payoffs Long After Homeowners Default” (1-28-10)

“Amid a crisis that stripped $6.4 trillion, or 28 percent, from the value of U.S. residential real estate since the 2006 peak, lenders are exercising their rights to pursue unpaid mortgage balances. To get their money, they can seize wages, tap bank accounts and put liens on other assets held by debtors.”

Bloomberg“Lennar Rallies as Homebuilders Diverge on Profits” (1-28-10)

“Lennar Corp. and KB Home this month reported their first quarterly profits since 2007 because of special tax refunds designed to help homebuilders struggling with declines in sales.”

Bloomberg“Las Vegas, California Cities Top Foreclosure List in 2009″ (1-28-10)

“Las Vegas homeowners had the highest U.S. foreclosure rate last year, and California and Florida cities accounted for 17 of the nation’s 20 worst markets as unemployment extended the housing recession.”

Bloomberg“Fed Lays Ground for End to Stimulus With Recovery Declaration” (1-28-10)

“The Federal Reserve panel in charge of interest rates declared for the first time the U.S. economy is in ‘recovery’ and took several steps to prepare investors for the removal of aggressive monetary stimulus.”

Orange County Register - “Irvine home tops most-viewed list” (1-28-10)

“The folks at Realtor.com compiled a list of the top 10 most popular homes for sale in Orange County from their Web site (reflecting last week).”

Realty Times – “Homebuyer Tax Credit Boosts Economy” (1-28-10)

“The vast majority of current homeowners say they would spend the expanded version of the homebuyer tax credit on repaying existing debts, home improvements, savings and investments and household expenses, according to a Coldwell Banker survey of 1,000 homeowners.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, the MBA reported that mortgage application volume decreased by 38 percent in one week. Zillow.com estimated that 14 percent of homeowners were underwater. The Federal Reserve chose to keep the interest rate at zero.

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 1/27/10

Wednesday, January 27th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

According to MDA DataQuick, 84,568 Notices of Default were recorded in California during the 4th quarter of 2009. The MBA’s weekly survey shows that mortgage application volume decreased 10.9 percent from last week. The Commerce Department reports that new home sales decreased by 7.6 percent last month. The Federal Reserve claims it will stick to its plan to end the $1.25 trillion program of mortgage-debt purchases in March.

In The News:

CBIA“Protect Your Model Homes” (1-27-10)

“Neighbors are the first and strongest line of defense in neighborhood security. If they can put a face to your model home, they will be much more likely to help protect you. Bring them gift baskets, shake hands and be respectful. Let them know that you’d appreciate if they’d call the police if they notice anyone at the model home after dark.”

DQNews“Another Drop in California Mortgage Defaults” (1-27-10)

“A total of 84,568 Notices of Default (”NODs”) were recorded at county recorder offices during the October-to-December period. That was down 24.3 percent from 111,689 for the prior quarter, and up 12.4 percent from 75,230 in fourth-quarter 2008, according to San Diego-based MDA DataQuick.”

Mortgage Bankers Association“Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey” (1-27-09)

“The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 22, 2010.  The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 10.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.  On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 10.1 percent compared with the previous week and decreased 19.8 percent compared with the same week one year earlier.”

Housing Wire“BofA First to Join HAMP Program for Second Liens” (1-27-10)

“Bank of America (BAC: 14.975 +1.39%) signed the first agreement to participate in the second-lien mortgage modification initiative under the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP), the bank confirmed Tuesday afternoon.”

Bloomberg“U.S. May Retool Loan Program for Underwater Borrowers” (1-27-10)

“The changes would be at least the third lease on life for the program, which began in October 2008 during the Bush administration and has so far helped just 96 of the 400,000 homeowners originally targeted.”

Bloomberg“U.S. Economy: Sales of New Homes Fall, Capping Worst Year Ever” (1-27-10)

“Sales of new homes in the U.S. unexpectedly dropped in December, capping the worst year on record and signaling the government’s tax-credit extension has yet to shore up demand. Purchases declined 7.6 percent to an annual pace of 342,000, marking the fourth decrease in the past five months, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. For all of 2009, sales declined 23 percent to 374,000, the lowest level since records began in 1963.”

Bloomberg“S&P, Moody’s Win Dismissal of Claims Over Mortgage Securities” (1-27-10)

“Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s Corp. won dismissal of a lawsuit seeking to hold them responsible for defrauding investors who bought about $100 billion of mortgage- backed securities.”

Bloomberg“Fed May Take Risk MBS Program End Won’t Hurt Housing” (1-27-10)

“The Federal Reserve may take a chance the housing market can stage a comeback without its support by announcing today it will stick to the plan to end a $1.25 trillion program of mortgage-debt purchases in March.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, MDA DataQuick reported that 75,230 default notices had been sent to California homeowners during the 4th quarter of 2008. The S&P Index showed that home prices fell 18.2 percent within two months. C.A.R. reported that Orange County home sales increased by 13.5 percent in one month.

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 1/26/10

Tuesday, January 26th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

CBIA reports that 36,209 building permits were issued in California last year. The 30-year mortgage rate decreased by 0.4 percent in December. DBRS expects loan servicers to allow more principal reductions as more attempted modifications fail. According to RealFacts, the average  Orange County apartment rent fell 6.7% during the 4th quarter of 2009.

In The News:

CBIA - “It’s Official: California Housing Production Reached New Low in 2009″ (1-26-10)

“California homebuilders put up the lowest number of homes for a single year in 2009, beating the previous low that was set in 2008, the California Building Industry Association announced today.  CBIA said just 36,209 permits were issued statewide last year for new homes, apartments, condominiums and townhomes, down 44 percent from 2008 and down a whopping 83 percent – 176,751 units – compared to 2004, the peak of the latest cycle.”

Housing Wire“Mortgage Insurer MGIC Loses $1.3bn in 2009″ (1-26-10)

“The Wisconsin-based mortgage insurer posted a total $1.3bn net loss in all of 2009, more than double the $525.4m net loss in all of 2008.”

Housing Wire“Mortgage Rates Dip in December, Stay Above 5 Percent” (1-26-10)

“The average interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) of $417,000 or less was 5.05% in December, down from 5.09% in November. The average interest rate on 15-year, FRM of $417,000 or less was 4.54%, down from 4.63% in November.”

Housing Wire“Going Forward, BarCap Expects Mixed Results from REITs” (1-26-10)

“Analysts at Barclays Capital (BarCap) project mixed results from the real estate investment trust (REIT) sector, as the companies begin releasing their Q409 and year-end earnings reports. On average, the analysts expect fourth quarter funds from operations per share (FFOPS) for the REIT sector to increase 6.1% year-over-year, but decline 28.1% on an operating basis, which they define as excluding non-recurring items.”

Housing Wire“Home Prices Continue to Improve in November” (1-26-10)

“Annual home price declines were in the single digits in November 2009, as the Standard & Poor’s (S&P)/Case-Shiller home price indices continue a 10-month run of improved results. The monthly indices track existing home prices every month on a year-over-year basis in 20 markets, broken down in 10-city and 20-city composites. The 10-city composite declined 4.5% and the 20-city composite declined 5.3% in November 2009 compared to November 2008.”

Housing Wire“DBRS Expects Re-Defaults to Drive Principal Forgiveness” (1-26-10)

“With more than half of all modified loans expected to re-default in 2010, servicers are likely to increase the use of principal forgiveness, as an option to bring these continually distressed mortgages current, rating agency DBRS said in commentary yesterday.”

Bloomberg - Fed Weighs Interest on Reserves as New Policy Rate (1-26-10)

“Federal Reserve policy makers are considering adopting a new benchmark interest rate to replace the one they’ve used for the last two decades. The central bank has been unable to control the federal funds rate since the September 2008 bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., when it began flooding financial markets with $1 trillion to prevent the economy from collapsing. Officials, who began a two-day meeting at 2 p.m. today in Washington, have said they may replace or supplement the fed funds rate with interest paid on excess bank reserves.”

Orange County Register – “Lake Forest has biggest O.C. rent cuts” (1-26-10)

“The average rent in that city was $1,347 a month during the fourth quarter vs. $1,520 in the fourth quarter of 2008. That compares to an average decrease of $105 countywide, according to RealFacts. The average  Orange County apartment rent fell 6.7% to $1,473 during the final three months of last year.”

Orange County Register – “4 O.C. cities top CA. home price gains” (1-26-10)

“The overall median price in December  was $496,070, down 0.6% from November, but up 12.1% from the prior year. Sales were up 4.5% from November and up 17.9% from December 2008.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, the NAR reported that existing home sales had increased by 6.5 percent within one month. Statistics from First American Corelogic showed that home prices fell in 38 U.S. states. Banks disposed of over $1 billion in loan and construction debt within one quarter. Distressed home sales represented 50 percent of the Southern California housing market.

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 1/25/10

Monday, January 25th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

According to the NAR, existing home sales decreased by 16.7 percent in December. The HVCC repeal bill, named HR 1728, has passed in the House of Representatvies and is waiting approval from Congress. The FDIC took over 5 more failed banks last week. FTN Financial reports that declining home values have had little effect on the nation’s economic recovery.

In The News:

NAR - “December Existing-Home Sales Down but Prices Rise; 2009 Sales Up” (1-25-10)

“Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – fell 16.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 5.45 million units in December from 6.54 million in November, but remain 15.0 percent above the 4.74 million-unit level in December 2008.”

Washington Post“Stakes are high as government plans exit from mortgage markets” (1-25-10)

“Over the past year, these programs have enabled prospective home buyers to get cheap loans, helping those buying and selling property as well as those eager to refinance existing mortgages. If the end of the initiative drives up interest rates, say from 5 percent to 5.5 percent, homeowners could be deterred from refinancing, industry officials say. A sharper increase in rates could make homes too expensive for many buyers, forcing them from the market and causing the recent pickup in home sales to stall.”

Inman - “Bailout’s impact on deficit debated” (1-25-10)

“The cost of subsidizing the operations of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac should be accounted for in the federal budget as if they were federal agencies, the Congressional Budget Office argues in a new report — an accounting change that would add nearly $400 billion to the growing national deficit. The Obama administration has argued that only cash the Treasury Department pumps directly into Fannie and Freddie — about $95.6 billion since the mortgage guarantors were placed into conservatorship in September 2008 — should be included as budget expenditures.”

Housing Wire - “FHA Cracks Down on 4 Mortgage Lenders” (1-25-10)

“The lenders losing approval are: Strategic Mortgage Corporation, ProMortgage, Americare Investment Group, which does business as Premier Capital Lending and TopDot Mortgage. The MRB suspended FHA approval on Home Mortgage Inc. (HMI) for six months. In addition to losing its FHA approval, TopDot faces action from the Government National Mortgage Association, or Ginnie Mae.”

Housing Wire“Home Valuation Code of Conduct is Better for Business, AMCs Say” (1-25-10)

“A trade group for the appraisal management company (AMC) industry warned that if proposed legislation repealing the Home Valuation Code of Conduct (HVCC) is passed, it may lead to the same damaging business practices that puts undue pressure put on property appraisers. The specific legislation that catches the ire of the Title/Appraisal Vendor Management Association (TAVMA) is HR 1728 which passed the House of Representatives and is awaiting Senate approval. The financial reform bill includes a provision to repeal the HVCC.”

Housing Wire“FDIC May Securitize Assets of Failed Banks” (1-25-10)

“There is a large supply of failed bank assets on-hand, with the latest round of five failures on Friday leaving the FDIC with at least $20.1m in total assets for later disposition. The FDIC is said to be diversifying its options for offloading failed banks when no buyer can be found.”

Housing Wire“Foreclosure and Price Decline is not Fatal to Recovery, Says FTN Financial” (1-25-10)

“Declines in house prices mixed with increases in foreclosures are not showing a hugely negative knock-on impact for the nation’s overall economic recovery, according to a weekly report by FTN Financial, a portfolio manager and analytics provider for the investment and banking industry.”

Bloomberg - “Fannie Mortgage-Bond Spreads Unchanged After Widening Four Days” (1-25-10)

“Yields on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage securities were unchanged relative to government notes after widening for four days. The difference between yields on Washington-based Fannie Mae’s current-coupon 30-year fixed-rate mortgage bonds and 10- year Treasuries remained at about 0.75 percentage point, after climbing as high as 0.77 percentage point, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The spread has grown since reaching 0.66 percentage point on Jan. 6, the tightest in more than 17 years.”

Orange County Register“South coast distressed homes slip, slide” (1-25-10)

“Two weeks ago, Dana Point’s percentage of short sales and foreclosures was 23.3%, which has risen to 24.7% this week, according to a biweekly report by Steven Thomas of Altera Real Estate. San Clemente also saw an increase in distressed properties. Two weeks ago, 30.8 percent of the city’s active home stock was distressed. Now, 32.8% of homes for sale are distressed.”

Orange County Register - “Smallest apartments get biggest rent cuts” (1-25-10)

“The biggest percentage cuts were made in rents for ‘junior one-bedroom’ units — essentially a small one-bedroom or a studio apartment with an alcove or space that can be used as a bedroom. The average rent for those units fell 11.4% to $1,172 a month. Studio apartments, one-bedroom and two-bedroom units had the next biggest percentage cuts, with reductions of just over 7%.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, California’s unemployment rate increased to 9.3 percent. Proposition 13 prevented California from raising property taxes for the budget crisis. Mortgage rates increased by 0.5 percent within a week and a half. The Federal Reserve was expected to keep its rates at a record low.

158-TNG Radio – Greg Norris 1-23-10

Friday, January 22nd, 2010

Greg Norris

Greg Norris

Greg Norris

The Norris Group

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This week Bruce is Greg Norris, Bruce’s oldest son. He has been working for The Norris Group since 2004. He was the project manager of TNG’s Rosamond building project. His current job involves buying bank owned properties and trustee sales.

Before he began working for TNG, Greg was an electrician. He got training from a union program in Los Angeles. He started as an apprentice, but he eventually reached the position of general foreman. He then quit his job as an electrician and began to work as a project manager.

Greg’s experience in construction has helped him a lot in the real estate buying and selling business. He knows what it takes to finish a job on time, and he is able to quickly weed out bad construction workers. He also has the ability to quickly recognize repair problems on a house.

If you want to learn how to check a house for repairs, Greg suggests that you take the TNG home repair course. The TNG course will give you some shortcuts to quickly estimate repair issues. He also thinks you could learn a lot from going to a job site with a general contractor who could give you his perspective on repairing homes.

Depending on the inventory you are working with, repairs can be fairly repetitive. Some REOs require very light rehabs, but Greg usually only buys REOS that require heavy rehabilitation. Homes that need heavy rehabilitation is very repetitive, because you typically have to start with the home’s shell and rebuild it.

Greg is so efficient at estimating repairs that he doesn’t often spend time taking notes on his homes. The reason why he is so proficient is because he has experienced a lot of repair repetition. When he first started buying auction properties for Bruce, he was observing 40 to 60 homes per day. When you’ve seen that many houses, you get to the point where you can estimate home value before you even walk inside. However, it is impossible for Greg not to miss things, but he is not concerned about these unknown factors so long as he is 90 to 95 percent accurate on his repair estimation. He also puts a little cushion into his asking price if he feels there are going to be expensive unknown costs.

The age of the property significantly changes the risk factor for unknown repair costs. You need to pay attention to what repairs were made by previous owners. Old houses are more likely to have plumbing and electrical problems.

Because REO inventory has decreased, more detailed remodels, in which room additions and other add-ons are included, are sometimes necessary. These kinds of additions sometimes require building permits that not everyone can get their hands on. These scenarios may not happen very often, but Greg has encountered homes in which the previous owner attempted to do a remodeling job and failed. Choosing to make major corrections, such as in Greg’s example, will depend on your ability to determine what kinds of remodels are considered more desirable in the market. Greg has observed many homes, so he has the ability to quickly perceive what buyer’s will like.

When Greg is selecting a contractor, he always checks out the contractor’s license, they are required to go through an application process, and they must have workers compensation. After their credentials are approved, they make a bid on Greg’s work. The most competitively priced contractor will be picked.

Not many contractors have all their licenses and insurances. Many of them are handymen, and they prefer to do things without licenses. With the kind of work that Greg does, he cannot take the risk of hiring unlicensed contractors.

If you want to check if a contractor has a license, insurance and workers’ compensation, you can get information online from the California State Licensed Contracting Board. You can look up any licensed contractor through that website, and it will tell you if they have workers’ compensation. However, the website will not tell you if every worker has workers’ compensation. Unfortunately, you cannot always monitor that. As long as they have a workers’ compensation policy, Greg is protected, because that contractor will have to cover for his company’s injuries.

Bruce asks Greg how important it is to pay your contractor on time. Greg believes that it depends on the contractor. When you are beginning a relationship with a contractor, it can be scary for them to accept late payment, especially if they have been previously defrauded. As you develop a good relationship with a contractor, they will likely become less concerned with your ability to pay within a short period of time. The contractor needs to know that you are looking out for their welfare. Greg has developed such a great relationship with his contractor that he considers him to be a business partner, and Greg knows that his contractor is willing to do jobs quickly without worrying about being underpaid.

Greg says that contractor prices have decreased from the housing peak. They are not trying to put 20 to 50 percent on a job. They are actually just happy to have a job at all. However, he is not sure just how badly the housing decline damaged them.

Most of Greg’s general contractors do most of their work by themselves, but if they choose to use sub-contractors, they are required to choose from a list of Greg’s preferred sub-contractors. If they do not use a preferred sub-contractor then they will be in violation of their contract. If the general contractor wants to use his own sub-contractors, then the sub must go through Greg’s application process. If the general contractor decides to pay his subs directly, then he will take on the liability if those subs have trouble on the job. If that general contractor hires a sub who is hurt, then that sub will be covered by his own workers’ compensation policy.

Greg feels that he has really mastered his plan for housing construction. When changes do occur he often does not know about it, because Greg’s general contractor does such a good job at taking care of the problem. It took a long time for Greg to find all of his fantastic work partners, but now that they are used to his system, they probably would not want to work for anyone else. As a matter of fact, some of Greg’s contractors have tried doing jobs for other people using his construction strategy, but they came back later and told him that his plans don’t work with other employers. Greg’s construction experience gives him an edge as a project manager, and this education makes it easier for his contractors to work with him.

Greg uses the word Gucci to describe the new housing market that TNG has began to invest in. Greg is starting to see higher valued homes enter into trustee sales. This is not the kind of product that Greg typically works with, but he is interested in this area of the housing market and he is learning about it very quickly.

When someone walks into a TNG property, Greg wants them to see that everything is in order. TNG homes are staged and well repaired, so that makes buyers feel more comfortable with buying the property. It was difficult for Greg to get attention from realtors for a while, because people perceived that they were over repairing. The extensive repairs that were being done on Greg’s properties made it difficult for buyers to compare his properties to others in the area. Now some realtors frequently check with Greg to see if he has new inventory, because TNG properties have gained a reputation for being easy sellers. Greg’s buyers are even starting to overpay for his houses, because there are no comparable matches to TNG properties. Many buyers want the kind of finish that TNG homes have, but since they cannot find that kind of product from anyone else, they will buy TNG properties for higher prices.

Greg believes that staging is very important for making sales happen quickly. When people step inside a TNG property they can see from the staging job that it will be a good home to live in. He would give his staging model an 8 out of 10 for effectiveness. He does not spend any more than 500 dollars on staging per house, but he believes that he gets much more money than that in the resulting sale price.

When buyers shop for homes, one of the first places they look for is realtor.com. Realtor.com is a great starting place for home shopping, because all of the selling properties on the MLS are dumped onto it. TNG does a lot of advertising on realtor.com, so that they will show up higher on the list of “for sale” properties. Some experienced buyers don’t waste time on realtor.com, because they know that a lot of time can be wasted by trying to find a home by yourself. These people often prefer to work with realtors, because they know that a realtor can find a good home quickly.

When TNG receives an offer on a property, Greg often requires them to shorten free look periods and quickly purchase appraisals. He also asks them to get their home inspections done quickly if they desire to get one. When a person shows that they are willing to spend their money quickly, it shows Greg that they will likely finish escrow. Greg often checks out his buyers’ loan package, so that he can be sure that they are not lying on their application.

Bruce asks if lenders have become increasingly cautious. Greg says that their level of caution depends on the area they are working in. When TNG worked in Moreno Valley, he was fighting appraisals quite often, because there was a lot of evidence for what an REO was worth but very little evidence for what a repaired home was worth. Currently, the decreased pricing trend is beginning to reverse. Greg does not know if prices will continue to increase, but he feels that they likely will, because ownership payments are often lower than rent payments in that area. Most of Greg’s Moreno Valley buyers had FHA financing.

Greg has not received any feedback from realtors who claim that buyers are coming into the market because of the tax rebates. No realtor has ever asked Greg to hurry through the sale process, because their buyer wanted the 8,000 dollar check. However, the realtors may not be telling Greg that information because they have no need to.

If an investor is having trouble selling his or her home, Greg would advise them to go to the MLS and check out the competition. Find out what other properties are selling for, and compare the condition of your home with theirs. Sometimes homes are located in bad areas, such as near a railroad. Greg would never risk buying a property that is back to a railroad, or is in any other undesirable.

The 90 day FHA rule was just lifted. Greg is unsure of how much this will affect the market. He thinks that prices at the whole-sale level will come up, because now investors will not have to wait as long to resale. Greg is concerned about whether or not FHA appraisers will allow prices to appreciate, because they have always factored in depreciation into their appraisal values.

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 1/22/10

Friday, January 22nd, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

According to DataQuick, 41,837 new and resale houses and condos were sold statewide in December. New York’s Federal Reserve bought $12 billion of MBS from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. First American CoreLogic reports that national home prices decreased by 5.7% from November 2008 to November 2009. A proposal from President Barack Obama to limit bets made by banks with their own capital may encourage banks to sell some private-equity businesses and to stop investing in buyouts.

In The News:

DQNews - “California December Home Sales” (1-21-10)

“An estimated 41,837 new and resale houses and condos were sold statewide last month. That was up 16.7 percent from 35,860 in November, and up 10.6 percent from 37,836 for December 2008. An increase in sales from November to December is normal for the season. California sales for the month of December have varied from a low of 25,585 in 2007 to a peak of 65,793 in 2004, the average is 44,708. MDA DataQuick’s statistics go back to 1988.”

Housing Wire“Fed Buys Another $12bn of Agency MBS” (1-22-10)

“The Federal Reserve Bank of New York bought $12bn of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) from mortgage giants Freddie Mac (FRE: 1.17 -10.69%), Fannie Mae (FNM: 0.99 -7.48%) and Ginnie Mae in the week ending January 20. Gross purchases totaled $16.36bn — $1.3bn of Freddie MBS and $12.8bn of Fannie MBS — before $2.25bn of MBS sales during the same time frame, according to details released Thursday by the NY Fed.”

Housing Wire“First American Home Price Index Down 5.7%” (1-22-10)

“National home prices declined 5.7% year-over-year in November, according to First American CoreLogic’s LoanPerformance Home Price Index (HPI). That’s an improvement from October’s year-over-year decline of 7.6%, but prices also declined 0.2% in November compared to October. Excluding distressed sales, prices declined 5.1% year-over-year in November, compared to a 5.7% decline in non-distressed sales prices in October.”

Housing Wire“FHA Opens HAMP for Borrowers at Default’s Door” (1-22-10)

“The Federal Housing Administration will provide early loss mitigation assistance for borrowers before they fall behind on their mortgage payments. According to the Helping Families Save Their Home Act of 2009, the FHA has the authority to use loss mitigation tools for delinquent borrowers facing ‘imminent default.’”

Housing Wire“Frank Says Committee to Recommend ‘Abolishing’ Fannie, Freddie” (1-22-10)

“House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank (D-Mass.) called for the abolition of the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) Fannie Mae (FNM: 0.99 -7.48%) and Freddie Mac (FRE: 1.17 -10.69%) during a committee hearing Friday.”

Housing Wire“SunTrust Boosts Reserve for Mortgage Repurchases, Posts Q409 Loss” (1-22-10)

“SunTrust Banks (STI: 24.55 +0.08%) posted a net loss of $316.4mfor the fourth quarter of 2009, and a full-year net loss of $1.73bn, compared with $741m of net income in the previous year. Loss expectations in the mortgage unit drove the results, as the company bolsters its reserve for expected mortgage loan repurchases.”

Bloomberg - “Obama Proposal May Force Banks to Sell Buyout Units” (1-22-10)

“JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. may have to sell some private-equity businesses and stop investing in buyouts under a proposal by President Barack Obama to limit bets made by banks with their own capital. Obama asked Congress yesterday to prohibit banks from owning or making investments in private-equity and hedge funds that ‘are unrelated to serving customers.’ While financial institutions could still manage the assets on behalf of clients, they wouldn’t be able to invest in their own funds or those run by firms such as Blackstone Group LP and KKR & Co.”

Inman - “2010: a time of stabilization” (1-22-10)

“Pat Lashinsky, CEO and president of national real estate brokerage company ZipRealty, said he expects some stabilization and ‘a little bit of rebounding’ in the housing market compared to last year.”

Inman - “Mortgage fraud reports level off” (1-22-10)

“After six years of double-digit growth, reports of suspected cases of mortgage fraud by lenders leveled off in the first half of 2009 but remained at a historically high level, acccording to a government report released today. The Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) said depository institutions reported 32,926 cases of suspected mortgage fraud in the first half of 2009, an increase of less than 1 percent from the same period in 2008.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, DQNews reported that 37,836 new and resale houses and condos were sold statewide during December 2008. The MBA’s weekly survey showed that mortgage application volume had decreased by 17.6 percent from November to January. The Commerce Department reported that home and apartment construction decreased by 15.5 percent in December 2008.

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 1/21/10

Thursday, January 21st, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

MDA DataQuick reports that 7,828 new and resale houses and condos were sold in the Bay Area during December. According to OCC, seriously delinquent loans of 60 or more days increased to 6.2 percent of the servicing portfolio. Radar Logic’s study of 25 metropolitan markets shows that home sales increased by 46.7%. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey shows that mortgage rates on 30-year U.S. loans fall to 4.99%.

In The News:

DQNews - “Bay Area December home sales strongest in three years” (1-21-10)

“A total of 7,828 new and resale houses and condos were sold in the nine-county region last month. That was up 13.8 percent from 6,878 in November, and up 13.6 percent from 6,889 for December 2008, according to MDA DataQuick of San Diego.”

OCC - “OCC and OTS Mortgage Metrics Report” (1-21-10)

“Overall, mortgage performance continued to decline as a result of continuing adverse economic conditions including rising unemployment and loss in home values. The percentage of current and performing mortgages fell to 87.2 percent of the servicing portfolio. Seriously delinquent mortgages— loans 60 or more days past due and loans to delinquent bankrupt borrowers—rose to 6.2 percent of the servicing portfolio. Foreclosures in process increased to 3.2 percent, while new foreclosure actions remained steady for the third consecutive quarter at 369,209. Of particular note, delinquencies among prime mortgages, the largest category of mortgages, continued to climb. The percentage of prime mortgages that were seriously delinquent in the third quarter was 3.6 percent, up 19.6 percent from the second quarter and more than double the percentage of a year ago.”

Housing Wire“BarCap Expects ‘Little Bite’ from FHA Underwriting Changes” (1-21-10)

“Recently-announced underwriting changes to the Federal Housing Administration’s (FHA) mortgage insurance program might be ‘all bark, little bite’ according to commentary Thursday by Barclays Capital (BarCap) researchers. The FHA changes include increases in the mortgage insurance premium, increased downpayment for low FICO borrowers, reduced ability to roll closing costs into the loan and increased lender recourse to FHA lenders.”

Housing Wire“Radar Logic Says Housing Market is Poised for Recovery” (1-21-10)

“Residential real estate showed some signs of life in November, according to Radar Logic’s monthly Residential Property Index (RPX). November home sales volume increased year-over-year in all of the 25 metropolitan markets the RPX report covers. Sales volume increased 46.7% year-over-year and 1.5% month-over-month.”

Housing Wire“PNC Posts $2.4bn Gain, 61 Permanent HAMP Mods in 2009″ (1-21-10)

“The PNC Financial Services Group (PNC: 55.70 -5.26%) reported a Q409 net income of $1.1bn, or $2.17 per diluted common share, an increase from the $559m gain in Q309. The company’s net income for the year reached $2.4bn, or $4.36 per diluted common share, compared to $914m, or $2.44 per share, in 2008.”

Housing Wire“Investors Ask Fed for $1.4bn of TALF Loans to Buy Legacy CMBS” (1-21-10)

“The Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Wednesday received requests for $1.45bn of government loans to buy securities backed by commercial mortgages.”

Bloomberg - “BlackRock Proposes New Consumer Bankruptcy Option” (1-21-10)

“Consumers need a new type of bankruptcy that would better aid homeowners and be fairer for mortgage-bond investors than the existing U.S. loan-modification program, BlackRock Inc. Vice Chairman Barbara Novick said. BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, proposes creating a bankruptcy option under which terms of a consumer’s mortgage can be eased, though only after other debts are eliminated, Novick said in a telephone interview. Judges would need to follow a formulaic approach, she said.”

Bloomberg - “Homebuilders Turn to Private Equity for Financing” (1-21-10)

“More than 40 U.S. homebuilders have teamed up with private equity firms to acquire and complete unfinished subdivisions as banks cut construction lending. The investments will pay off for the builders and their investors if the prices are low enough and the locations are in areas where demand is recovering, said Megan McGrath, a home building industry analyst at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York.”

Bloomberg - “Bank Failures Should Destroy CEOs, Buffett Tells Fox” (1-21-10)

“President Barack Obama’s proposal to regulate banks should include a requirement that chief executive officers and their spouses forfeit their assets when companies fail, billionaire Warren Buffett said on Fox Business Network.”

Bloomberg - “Mortgage Rates on 30-Year U.S. Loans Fall to 4.99%” (1-21-10)

“Mortgage rates in the U.S. dropped for a third week, lowering borrowing costs for consumers and supporting government efforts to boost the housing market. The rate for 30-year fixed U.S. home loans fell to 4.99 percent for the week ended today from 5.06 percent, mortgage finance company Freddie Mac said in a statement today. The average 15-year rate declined to 4.4 percent from 4.45 percent, according to the McLean, Virginia-based company.”

Bloomberg - “U.S. Life Insurers May Face More Real Estate Losses” (1-21-10)

“U.S. life insurers, a group led by MetLife Inc. and Prudential Financial Inc., may face $15 billion in additional commercial real estate losses, most of which will be recognized in the next two years, Fitch Ratings said.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, the NAHB reported that builder confidence had decreased to a record low. Dataquick reported that foreclosures represented more than half of all sales.  Research from the Construction Industry Research Board showed that Orange County governments issued 3,156 building permits to homebuilders in 2008.

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 1/20/10

Wednesday, January 20th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

The MBA’s Market Composite Index shows that loan application volume increased by 9.1 percent. Policy changes for FHA will consequently cause borrowers to pay more on their FHA-insured mortgages. HUD reports that housing starts declined 4% in December. Regional housing inflation rose 0.2% in Southern California.

In The News:

Mortgage Bankers Association“Refinance Applications Increase as Mortgage Rates Fall in Latest MBA Weekly Survey” (1-20-10)

“The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 15, 2010. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 9.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 10.4 percent compared with the previous week and decreased 52.3 percent compared with the same week one year earlier.”

Mortgage Bankers Association“MBA Comments on Changes to FHA Credit Policy” (1-20-10)

“Borrowers may have to pay a little more for their FHA-insured mortgages or certain borrowers will have to put more money down for their home, but these changes are necessary given the stress that the housing downturn has put on the FHA program.”

Housing Wire“Commercial Real Estate Investor Demand to Grow in 2010″ (1-20-10)

“The start of 2010 is showing signs of growing investor demand in US commercial real estate, and potentially in related secondary markets, despite the lagging performance of underlying collateral. The pick-up is also predicted to be mirrored in similar markets in Europe and Asia; areas expected to see comparatively better performance. In a report from the rating agency Moody’s, analysts project some pick-up in commercial real estate (CRE) demand after Q409, which would help markets after little movement for much of the year.”

Housing Wire“Housing Starts Drop, Permits Up in December” (1-20-10)

“After jumping up 8.9% one month earlier, housing starts declined 4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 557,000 in December, according to the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau.”

Housing Wire - “BofA Posts $5.2bn Loss in Q409 After TARP Repayment” (1-20-10)

“In the same quarter of 2008, BofA posted a net less of $2.4bn, or $0.48 per diluted share. Excluding the $4bn TARP repayment, BofA had a net loss of $194m in Q409, which narrowed from the $1.8bn loss from a year earlier. For all of 2009, BofA reported a net income of $6.3bn, an improvement from $4bn in 2008.”

Housing Wire“Morgan Stanley Posts $413m Q409 Profit as Real Estate Gains” (1-20-10)

“Firm-wide results for the full year reflected $1.9bn of net losses on real estate investments ‘amidst the ongoing industry-wide decline in this market,’ Morgan Stanley said in the earnings statement.”

Housing Wire“Wells Fargo Posts Record $12.3bn Annual Net Income” (1-20-10)

“Wells Fargo said mortgage originations and servicing revenue was $3.4bn in the quarter, and its total mortgage banking noninterest income accounted for 15% of the company’s consolidated Q409 revenue. The bank had $1.2bn in income from mortgage origination and sales activities on $94bn of residential mortgage originations and $144bn of applications.”

Bloomberg - “‘Tranche Warfare’ Erupts as Property Owners Slide Into Default” (1-20-10)

“Infighting among lenders with different classes of debt, called tranches, is on the rise in the hotel industry and throughout the $3.5 trillion market for commercial real estate loans after property prices fell more than 40 percent from their peak in 2007. Commercial mortgage defaults more than doubled to 3.4 percent in last year’s third quarter from a year earlier.”

Bloomberg - “Property Bonds Beat Corporates as Simon Sells: Credit Markets” (1-20-10)

“Real estate borrowers are leading the rally in U.S. corporate bonds as investors add to bets property companies will weather an increase in commercial mortgage defaults. Bonds sold by real-estate investment trusts, shopping-mall owners and office landlords have gained 3.27 percent this month, exceeding 3.18 percent for all of the fourth quarter, and BBB rated commercial mortgage bonds returned 3.59 percent, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes. The gains are the biggest among investment-grade issuers, which returned 1.65 percent so far in 2010, the indexes show.”

Orange County Register“SoCal housing inflation lowest in 32+ years” (1-20-10)

“Overall regional housing inflation rose 0.2% for the year, lowest since they started this data series in 1977. Household energy costs fell 8.8% last year, biggest drop in the series that dates to 1977.”

Orange County Register“408 south coast homes in default on loans” (1-20-10)

“There are hundreds of homes in Dana Point, Laguna Beach and San Clemente that are in default on their mortgages and in danger of being foreclosed. According to Trulia.com, a total of 408 homes in these south coastal communities have received a notice of default from their bank, which typically follows one or often a series of missed mortgage payments and a late notice.”

Inman - “Zillow, Trulia slip in Hitwise ratings” (1-20-10)

“Realtor.com remained the dominant Web site in the real estate category, with 6.79 percent market share. Rounding out the top 10 Web sites were Yahoo! Real Estate (3.8 percent), Zillow (3.5 percent), ZipRealty (2.91 percent), eBay’s Rent.com (2.57 percent), Service Magic (2.27 percent), Trulia.com (2.16 percent), Homes.com (1.99 percent), MSN Real Estate (1.78 percent) and Apartments.com (1.32 percent).”

Inman - “Google, RPR and the future” (1-20-10)

“Marty Frame, president of NAR’s Realtors Property Resource, which seeks to create a national database of property information and a new property-valuation system for Realtors to access, discusses RPR plans with Dale Ross, RPR CEO.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, congress voted to use the second half of the $700 billion TARP bailout. FHA was offering 3.5%-down mortgages to qualified buyers. Nouriel Roubini predicted that the U.S. financial crisis may reach $3.6 trillion. Dataquick reported that foreclosures made up just 6 percent of resales in August 2007.