The Norris Group Blog

California Real Estate Headline Roundup

Archive for December, 2009

By Bruce Norris .

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 12/30/09

Wednesday, December 30th, 2009

Today’s News Synopsis:

A survey from Bank of America shows that only 12 percent of the institutions who received TARP relief believe that the program positively impacted their operations. Barclay’s estimates that credit availability may increase during the next 6 to 12 months. Default Research reports that pre-foreclosure filings in California decreased in several counties. Statistics from Freddie Mac show that mortgage purchases decreased by 13% in November.

In The News:

Housing Wire“Only 12% of Bank Execs Think TARP Leaves Positive Impact” (12-30-09)

“While larger financial institutions complete full repayment of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), as is the case with the $45bn repaid last week by Citi (C: 3.32 -1.48%) and Wells Fargo (WFC: 26.82 +0.52%), a bank survey completed by the Bank Administration Institute (BAI) claims only 12% of respondents feel the program positively impacted their operations.”

Housing Wire“Origination Funding May Increase as Credit Restrictions Ease in 2Q10, Analysts Predict” (12-30-09)

“A recent set of research focusing on 2010 strategies for investors of agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) by analysts at Barclays Capital finds that credit availability for mortgage originations may increase in the next six to 12 months. However, the situation will remain tight in the next three to six months, they add, as the market grapples with ongoing risk aversion sentiments, loan repurchases stabilization and new regulatory procedures that will need this time to take hold.”

Housing Wire“Foreclosure Notices Drop in Major Counties: Default Research” (12-30-09)

“The number of pre-foreclosure filings in California, which include notices of default and notices of trustee sales, dropped across several counties in November, according to statistics from Default Research, which tracks the notices. The hard-hit Los Angeles County had a 10% decline from last month to 3.08% in November. Orange County, where 3.4% received a filing, had a drop of 8% in November. In Riverside County, 9.2% received a pre-foreclosure filing, a 13.7% decline from October.”

Housing Wire“NAMB Criticizes Regulation Z Amendment” (12-30-09)

“In a letter to the Federal Reserve Board, the National Association of Mortgage Brokers (NAMB) said that certain aspects of the proposed rule to amend Regulation Z would impede market competition. Section 404 of the Helping Families Save their Home Act of 2009 took effect in May and requires a 30 day notice to mortgage borrowers of their loans being transferred for securitization. Called Regulation Z, the Fed’s interim final rule enforces the requirement under the Act.”

Housing Wire - “Fannie’s Serious Delinquencies Nears 5% in November” (12-30-09)

“After mortgage giant Freddie Mac (FRE: 1.42 -5.33%) reported a 13% drop in mortgage purchases in November, Fannie Mae (FNM: 1.16 -7.20%) shows its book of business declined at an annualized rate of 6.7% in the same month, according to its monthly summary”

Housing Wire“List of HAMP Servicers Moves Past 100″ (12-30-09)

“The US Treasury Department added four new servicers to the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP), raising the total number of participants to 103, according to the latest Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) transaction report.”

Bloomberg - “GMAC Said to Discuss U.S. Aid Package of $3 Billion or More” (12-30-09)

“GMAC Inc., the home and auto lender that counts the U.S. government as the largest stakeholder, is discussing with the Obama administration a third bailout of $3 billion to $4 billion, said a person familiar with the matter.”

Orange County Register“Tough market eyed for high-end housing” (12-30-09)

“There is a chance this is not the bottom for the all price ranges! However, under $500,000 looks to be in pretty good shape, although appreciation will continue to be very faint! Above $500,000 it will continue to be a tough market, as there are very few move-up buyers from the lower price ranges with money to support the higher price structure”

Looking Back:

One year ago, the Case Schiller index showed that home prices dropped by 18 percent in 20 major U.S. cities. Lockhart estimated that the government would need to provide lower borrowing costs to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The Federal Reserve forecasted that mortgage modifications would be significantly hindered by second mortgages. Fannie Mae’s portfolio of mortgages increased by 9.3 percent in one month.

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 12/29/09

Tuesday, December 29th, 2009

Today’s News Synopsis:

The S&P/Case-Schiller index shows that home prices increased in 20 major U.S. cities in October. A Bloomberg study shows that broker commissions decreased by 6.2 percent from last year. Steve Thomas of Altera Real Estate reports that Orange County home sales take half as much time in comparison to last year. O.C. distressed property sales decreased by 53 percent from last year.

In The News:

Bloomberg - “Home Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Rose for Fifth Month” (12-29-09)

“Home prices in 20 U.S. cities rose in October for a fifth consecutive month, putting the housing market and economy farther along the path to recovery. The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index increased 0.4 percent from the prior month on a seasonally adjusted basis, after a 0.2 percent rise in September, the group said today in New York. The gauge was down 7.3 percent from October 2008, the smallest year- over-year decline since October 2007. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News anticipated a 7.2 percent drop.”

Bloomberg - “Housing Recovery Fails to Bolster Broker Commissions” (12-29-09)

“A surge in home purchases by first- time U.S. buyers is doing little to help real estate agents and brokers who close the deals. Commissions in 2009 fell to the lowest level in seven years, driven down by sales of low-priced homes to first-time buyers using the federal tax credit. Commissions through November dropped 6.2 percent from a year earlier to $40.6 billion, according to Bloomberg calculations based on the average commission rates from Real Trends Inc. and on home price and sales data from the National Association of Realtors.”

Inman - “Approach 2010 with curiosity, not dread” (12-29-09)

“Given the immense global economic expansion under way and the shortage of the commodity, its price ought to go up. Then again, given cost of production at $600 an ounce and doubled price, nobody knows at what point balance will appear. If you want an inflation indicator, watch inflation. Currency values are relative to each other, not absolute, and are effect, not cause. In the old days you could assume that a weak currency brought inflation, or that you got some benefit from having a strong currency. Today, China has no inflation problem and tries like hell to keep its currency cheap. Watch economies themselves.”

Inman - “3 steps to a better marketing strategy” (12-29-09)

“Cummings points out that more wealth is created during recessions than at any other time. Recessions do end. While you can’t control when your market will shift, you can control your reaction to the market.”

Realty Times“Washington Report: Estate Taxes” (12-29-09)

“If the Senate fails to pass a bill preserving current estate tax rates, as the House did before heading home for the holidays, the estate tax will totally disappear January first. While that might sound like outstandingly good news for people who want to pass along real estate to children or grandchildren tax-free, there’s a major complication here. If the estate tax disappears in 2010 because the Senate couldn’t get its act together in 2009, the disappearance will only be temporary, for one year. Then, under a legislative deal worked out nearly a decade ago, the estate tax will suddenly spring back to life in 2011 with higher tax rates and lower exclusions.”

Orange County Register“Home-selling time sliced by half in 2009″ (12-29-09)

“The latest O.C. home inventory report from Steve Thomas at Altera Real Estate in Aliso Viejo — the last one for 2009 — tells you that the typical home officially on the market today takes half the time to sell than it did a year ago!”

Orange County Register - “Distressed homes for sale cut 53% in a year” (12-29-09)

“the number of O.C. distressed properties (homes listed by agents in the MLS system as foreclosures or short sales) was 2,537 last week — down 53% in a year.”

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 12/28/09

Monday, December 28th, 2009

Today’s News Synopsis:

Statistics show that more people are leaving California than are entering. Approximately 31,000 homeowners have received permanent mortgage modifications of the 4 million that applied for them. Pacific Marketing Associates estimates that condominiums in the Bay Area will soon see a price increase. The Federal Reserve bought $15 billion in mortgage-backed securities from Fannie Mae, Ginnie Mae and Freddie Mac.

In The News:

CNN - “Biggest losers: Where Americans aren’t moving” (12-27-09)

“For years more people have fled the Golden State than have arrived. In the year ended July 1, California was the country’s biggest loser, with nearly 100,000 more residents leaving than moving in. Still, that was an improvement over earlier losses: In 2006 the net decline was 313,081.”

New Observations“Housing Inventory Still Dramatically Oversupplied — Before You Add In The Foreclosures” (12-27-09)

“supply exceeds long-term inventory averages by 32% — a significant hurdle despite a count of months-of-supply inventory which is just 12% above average and is practically normal (see below). The disconnect in the measure of excess between units for sale and months of supply suggests a logical problem with the data.”

Yahoo - “Credit crunch: Home equity lending evaporates” (12-25-09)

“At the peak of the housing boom in 2006, banks made $430 billion in home equity loans and lines of credit, according to the trade publication Inside Mortgage Finance. From 2002 to 2006, such lending was equal to 2.8 percent of the nation’s economic activity, according to a study by finance professors Atif Mian and Amir Sufi of the University of Chicago.”

Yahoo - “No consequences for lying borrowers” (12-25-09)

“The federally funded Home Affordable Modification Program was aimed at getting banks to rework mortgages for homeowners in order to slow the pace of foreclosures. The government set a goal of modifying up to 4 million mortgages over the next three years. The program isn’t working like it’s supposed to. Since March, just 31,000 homeowners have won permanent relief. One big reason why is that lenders are doing what they should have been doing all along — requiring things like proof of income.”

McClatchy“How Goldman secretly bet on the U.S. housing crash” (12-28-09)

“In 2006 and 2007, Goldman Sachs Group peddled more than $40 billion in securities backed by at least 200,000 risky home mortgages, but never told the buyers it was secretly betting that a sharp drop in U.S. housing prices would send the value of those securities plummeting. Goldman’s sales and its clandestine wagers, completed at the brink of the housing market meltdown, enabled the nation’s premier investment bank to pass most of its potential losses to others before a flood of mortgage defaults staggered the U.S. and global economies. Only later did investors discover that what Goldman had promoted as triple-A rated investments were closer to junk. ”

Housing Wire“FHA Loans Could Spark Condo Sales in Bay Area” (12-28-09)

“Pacific Marketing Associates, which provides sales and marketing services for real estate developers in California, anticipates increased demand and limited supply will boost prices in the condominium market.”

Housing Wire“Fed’s Agency MBS Purchases Slow Ahead of 2010″ (12-28-09)

“The Federal Reserve Bank of New York bought $15bn of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) from mortgage giants Fannie Mae (FNM: 1.27 +20.95%), Freddie Mac (FRE: 1.61 +27.78%) and Ginnie Mae in the week ending December 23.”

Orange County Register – “Dramatic 2011 housing rebound eyed” (12-28-09)

“At current levels of undervaluation, distressed inventory is being absorbed faster than it is being introduced, and this trend will continue in Orange County and throughout California. 2010 won’t feel like a dramatic improvement in either price or sales volume, but small, incremental economic and market improvements will continue through next year, with more dramatic improvements forecast for 2011.”

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 12/23/09

Wednesday, December 23rd, 2009

Today’s News Synopsis:

Homebuilders pulled 46 percent fewer permits from November of last year. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, mortgage application volume decreased by 10.7 percent from last week. Freddie Mac purchased 13 percent fewer mortgage purchases from the previous month. Equifax reports that HELOC originations fell 36 percent from one year ago.

In The News:

CBIA - “Housing Production Posts Decrease in November, CBIA Announces” (12-13-09)

“According to statistics compiled by the Construction Industry Research Board (CIRB), homebuilders pulled permits for 2,540 total housing units in November, down 12 percent from October, and down 46 percent from November 2008. Permits for single-family homes totaled 1,710, down 20 percent from the previous month, but up 18 percent from the same period last year, while multifamily permits totaled 830, up 9 percent from October but down 74 percent from a year ago.”

Mortgage Bankers AssociationMortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey” (12-23-09)

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 18, 2009.  The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume decreased 10.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.  On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 10.9 percent compared with the previous week.”

Housing WireBofA Sues MGIC Over Unpaid Insurance Claims” (12-23-09)

“Bank of America’s (BAC: 15.18 -0.98%) Countrywide Home Loans unit sued Mortgage Guaranty Investment Corp. (MTG: 5.7798 -9.12%) over allegations the Wisconsin-based mortgage insurer denied millions of valid claims.”

Housing Wire“Freddie Buys 7% More Refi Mortgages in November” (12-23-09)

“Mortgage giant Freddie Mac (FRE: 1.3295 -1.52%) reported $27.9bn in mortgage purchases and issuances in November, a 13% drop from $32.1bn in October, according to a monthly summary of the agency’s portfolio.”

Housing Wire“HUD Delays New FHA Appraiser Guidelines” (12-23-09)

“According to an FHA memo obtained by HousingWire, the January 1, 2010 implementation of Mortgagee Letter (ML) 2009-28 (download here) won’t take affect until February 15, 2010. The new FHA regulations are similar to those implemented by the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) to ensure appraiser independence with the Home Valuation Code of Conduct (HVCC).”

Housing Wire“Equifax: HELOC Origination Down 36%” (12-23-09)

“Origination of new home equity lines of credit (HELOC) accounts is down 36% from year-ago levels, Equifax (EFX: 31.28 -0.26%) said. There were 75,600 HELOC accounts originated in September 2009, down from 117,800 in September 2008, according to the Atlanta-based credit bureau’s most recent monthly credit trend report, derived from Equifax’s nearly 200m US consumer credit files.”

Bloomberg - “U.S. Economy: Spending and Incomes Climb, New-Home Sales Drop” (12-23-09)

“American consumers’ spending and incomes climbed in November, indicating the biggest part of the economy is poised to strengthen as the labor market recovers. Purchases rose 0.5 percent as households took advantage of discounts on autos and electronics, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. The gain was smaller than anticipated as unseasonably warm weather depressed utility use. Another report showed new-home sales unexpectedly fell as potential buyers were discouraged by the scheduled expiration of a tax credit. The tax break was later extended.”

Bloomberg - “General Growth Has Deals to Restructure $11.6 Billion of Debt” (12-23-09)

“General Growth Properties Inc., the second-largest U.S. mall owner, has won approval from creditors and a federal court to restructure loans totaling $11.6 billion, according to a lawyer.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, existing home sales fell 8.6 percent from October to November. Mortgage default filings against homeowners decreased for the first time in 3 years. Moorlach predicted that 10 municipal bankruptcies would occur in 2009. The U.S. economy shrank by 0.5 percent from the previous month.

154-TNG Radio – Cantu and Alvarez 12-26-09

Wednesday, December 23rd, 2009

Mike-Cantu

Mike Cantu

Investor

 

Tony-Alvarez

Tony Alvarez

Investor

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This week Bruce is joined by Mike Cantu and Tony Alvarez. Both of them are very successful California real estate investors.

At the end of 2006, Mike made a list of people that he thought would be out of business in a short period of time. Later he discovered that his predictions were true. Bruce asks what was wrong with their business plan that caused them to fail. Mike said that these people did not know how to adapt to market change. They had unsustainable lifestyles. They were spending between $10,000 to $20,000 dollars per month, and that lifestyle ultimately brought them down during the rough times. Many had negative cash flow on their investments, they were too optimistic, and they were speculating too much. Some people have a hard time understanding the difference between speculators and investors. Mike labels himself an investor in the rental market, and he labels himself a real estate entrepreneur in the buy/sell business. In the late 1980s, people were speculating how high prices would go, and they thought prices were going to keep going up, and many of them were hurt badly. Mike has a much more conservative business plan than those people.

When Bruce and Tony met in 2003, he was considering leaving the real estate market. Bruce made a list of similarities and differences between Tony and Mike. Tony chose to unload his properties, but Mike did not, and both of them are very happy with their outcomes. Tony had a variety of properties, and he felt that his assets would be more difficult to manage. He was also facing high taxes, so he chose to 1031 exchange into commercial property. He had a good friend who was involved in the building of shopping centers, so he had the right relationships to make good commercial deals.

When Mike saw properties go up in 2006, he chose to hold onto his properties, and he is still proud of his decision. Mike wanted to have enough rental income to live life on his terms. After he made his big mistake, he just wanted to have one more chance to achieve his goal of freedom, and he didn’t want to take the risk of losing it. He realized that he had everything he had hoped to obtain, so he felt no need to trade his properties for more money. He also realized that if he decided to sell his properties then he would eventually choose to reinvest that money back into real estate. He already had all the real estate he needed, so he just decided to keep it. However, he has made upgrades on the properties that he owns. He traded his lower quality houses for good houses in good neighborhoods. These houses take care of him, and now he feels that the rest of his life is an open book because those homes take care of all his expenses.

Bruce has watched people made desperate decisions over the last few years. He met one man who had $16 million worth in real estate, $12 million of debt, and $30 thousand dollars of negative cash flow. Bruce knew that this man had $4 million in equity, but he was very glad that he was not in the same position. That man lost a lot of what he had. Decisions made in desperation don’t work out very well. The philosophy of buying, holding and paying off assets saves you from making desperate decisions.

Bruce asks Tony what he would do if he had lost everything and he had to restart from scratch. Tony did a little experiment in which he asked himself, “What would I do if I was starting from nothing in San Diego.” It took him 2 days to analyze everything in the MLS, and use the same concepts he teaches in his books. He called agents and did not tell him that he was an investor. The agents quickly decided to work with him.

Tony received a negative response from an investor who had attended his classes. This investor told Tony that he had been working in San Diego, because there was no opportunity there. He told Tony that he could not get a deal. Not long after that, Tony got an email from two men in their twenties. They had done 8 deals within the last 12 months and gained about $200,000. Tony discovered that they only $1,000 dollars to start out with.

Tony tells Bruce that if he had to start over, he would take whatever resources he had and go back to the Antelope Valley. He would use his knowledge about real estate to do exactly what he had done before. He would look for inventory that would provide him with positive cash flow.

Bruce noted that both Mike and Tony have a sense of humor. Bruce thinks that Mike’s humor has been a big part of his success. Mike has zero expectations from his close friends, but he wants to have a good laugh every day. He does not want to take life too seriously. Bruce’s business involves taking peoples’ expectations down from the sky, and bringing it to earth.  Bruce and Tony both enjoy a show call “The Pawn Shop.” Bruce noticed that there are three negotiating types displayed in the three characters. There is one character with a good sense of humor, and he easily gets people to reduce their prices by making sellers laugh.

If Mike was starting from scratch, he would hunt for a partner with money and credit. He would present a detailed plan to this partner, and continue learning about the investment that he wants to get involved in. He would do his best to become an asset to his partner rather than a liability.

Tony made a partner out of a hard money lender. He was just coming out of bankruptcy, but he was able to show the lender what he had going for him. He showed the lender his knowledge and ability to find deals. He had a mindset that he was going to walk out of the lender’s office with money.

Bruce asks Mike who his important mentors have been, because he has spent a lot of time getting an education. Mike feels fortunate that his first mentor was Mick Blackwell. He was not an easy man to do business with, or getting along with, but he pushed Mike very hard to do his best. Mick’s usual response to anything Mike did for him was, “Is that the best you can do?” This made Mike want to do his best to impress Mick. Mick also lived very conservatively. His wife has a lot of nice things, but Mick could be satisfied with a trailer in his backyard.

Tony considers his first two mentors to be his mom and dad. His dad encouraged Tony to integrate into American society. His dad taught him to be persistent and to do hard work. His mother taught him how to negotiate and build relationships. They did not have money to go to Catholic school, but Tony’s mother negotiated the school leader to let them in for free. Tony’s first business mentor was Victor Ayela. Victor told Tony that appraisers were making a fortune, and that he would be crazy not to learn about that business. Tony learned negotiating skills from a liquor buyer named Al Rudolph. Tony learned a lot about business integrity from a man named Joe Germaine. Many of his mentors were not in real estate. Most of the people that Tony enjoys doing business with are people who are true to their word, and they look for solutions to problems rather than let themselves be absorbed by problems.

Bruce believes that Tony, Mike and himself are going to be some of the main trainers for the next generation, and he takes that very seriously, because he was given the opportunity to learn from people like Jack Miller. Bruce remembers that he is the example for the next generation. Mike has always felt that he has an obligation to give back because of the help he received from other people. Mike wants to leave the better place than the way he entered it. He feels that it is very rewarding to help other people, and he enjoys the notes he gets in the mail about the way he has affected other peoples’ lives.

It was not easy for Mike to transition into his role as a teacher. The first time he was going to give a public speech, he threw up from his jitters and he considered bolting, but he felt very good after he gave his speech.

Thank you Mike and Tony for taking the time to do the interview. Happy holidays for those reading. Look forward to more interviews in 2010!

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 12/22/09

Tuesday, December 22nd, 2009

Today’s News Synopsis:

Research from the Office of Thrift Supervision and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency show that the number of U.S. homes in foreclosure have passed the 1-million mark. The NAR reports that existing homes sales increased by 7.4 percent in November. According to IHS Global Insight, U.S. home prices increased by 0.2 percent during the 3rd quarter of 2009. Barclay’s predicts that the unemployment rate will reduce to 9.1 percent by the end of 2010.

In The News:

Los Angeles Times“More prime mortgages default in 3rd quarter” (12-22-09)

“For the first quarter ever, the number of homes in foreclosure with mortgages serviced by U.S. national banks and savings and loans topped the 1-million mark, according to figures released Monday by the Office of Thrift Supervision and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. The percentage of prime borrowers whose loans were 60 or more days past due doubled from the July-to-September period a year earlier. And more than half of all homeowners whose payments had been lowered through modification plans defaulted again.”

NAR - “Another Big Gain in Existing-Home Sales as Buyers Respond to Tax Credit” (12-22-09)

“Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – rose 7.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 6.54 million units in November from 6.09 million in October, and are 44.1 percent higher than the 4.54 million-unit pace in November 2008. Current sales remain at the highest level since February 2007 when they hit 6.55 million.”

Housing Wire“Treasury Spends $4.1bn on Affordable Housing Programs” (12-22-09)

“The amount of American Recovery and Reinvestment Act funds distributed to state agencies to promote affordable housing is running at nearly $4.1bn after the latest round of payouts, the Treasury Department said.”

Press Enterprise“Local, national retail hiring still sluggish” (12-22-09)

“According to an analysis of Labor Department data by the Chicago-based outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, the U.S. retail sector grew by a net 321,300 jobs in November, for an increase of 37 percent from November 2008. In the Inland region, the California Employment Development Department reported last week, the net gain of 550 retail jobs in November marked a 3.6 percent bump from the prior month, but the total retail workforce of 157,800 was actually down 5.5 percent from a year ago.”

Housing Wire“Housing Prices End Two-Year Skid, says IHS Global Insight” (12-22-09)

“The two-year slide in US housing prices ended in Q309 and increased 0.2% over the previous quarter, according to a quarterly report form IHS Global Insight, a provider of economic and financial analysis. Although prices increased on a national average, 161 of the top 330 metropolitan areas had declines in prices, but it’s still an improvement from Q408 when prices dropped in 317 metro areas.”

Housing Wire“FHFA Home Price Index Up 0.6% in October” (12-22-09)

“US housing prices increased 0.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis from September to October, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA) monthly house price index. The increase comes after the FHFA adjusted the index’s August to September reading from no change to a 0.4% decline. For the 12 months ending in October, prices fell 1.9%. The index is 10.8% below its April 2007 peak.”

Housing Wire“BarCap: Commercial Real Estate Demand to Start Back This Summer” (12-22-09)

“according to Barclay’s report on the 2010 outlook for commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), the labor market is showing encouraging signs in recent months, which is the best indication of growing demand in commercial space. Barclay’s analysts forecast “sustained positive job growth” beginning in Q110 and an addition of 2.3m jobs by the end of the year. This translates to a 9.1% unemployment rate at the end of 2010, which is not yet healthy but a sign of recovery.”

Housing Wire“Securitization Systematic Risk to Lessen in 2010, Barclays Says” (12-22-09)

“Due to the ‘herculean’ and ‘unprecedented’ efforts of myriad Fed bailouts, Barclays Capital is reporting that, going into the New Year, the systemic risk posed by the securitized markets will be much lower, although the agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market remains a concern.”

Bloomberg - “Mortgage-Bond Yields Jump to 4-Month High, Boosting Loan Rates” (12-22-09)

“Yields on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage securities climbed to the highest in four months, signaling interest rates on new home loans may extend a rebound from record lows this month and blunt a housing recovery.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, policy makers were considering the abolition of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Foresight Analytics estimated that $530 billion in commercial mortgages were due for refinancing over the next three years. CIRB reported that the number of construction permits being pulled increased by 8 percent from the previous month. The pace of existing home sales decreased by 10.6 percent from 2007 to 2008.

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 12/21/09

Monday, December 21st, 2009

Today’s News Synopsis:

PMI Insurance Group predicts that 2010 will produce a moderate increase in economic production. According to John Burns Real Estate Consulting, real estate investor activity now exceeds 2005 levels. Moody’s reports that commercial real estate values have decreased by 36 percent from last year. A total of 140 banks have been seized this year.

In The News:

Tennessean - “Glut of shadow properties could hurt housing prices” (12-20-09)

“A supply of 1.7 million homes headed for sale because of foreclosure or delinquency looms over the U.S. housing market, which could dampen progress toward recovery should the Obama administration fail in its efforts to aid struggling homeowners, researchers said.”

Dr. Housing Bubble“Southern California and the MLS Myth: Why the MLS does not Provide an Accurate Picture of Housing Inventory. Shadow Inventory, Foreclosures, and Fantasy Housing Numbers.” (12-20-09)

“In Southern California last month 20 percent of all buyers went with all cash. Each MLS is geared to local markets but again many argue that the MLS forces membership into the real estate circles.”

San Francisco Chronicle“Commercial real estate on shaky foundation” (12-20-09)

“while most commercial real estate experts agree that in 2010 there will more loan defaults, scores more bank closures and limited construction lending, many observers do not believe that commercial mortgage defaults will derail the recovery.”

Housing Wire“Mortgage Insurer Expects Housing Growth in 2010″ (12-21-09)

“PMI Mortgage Insurance Co., of PMI Group (PMI: 2.00 0.00%), does not expect an additional downturn in the US economy in the New Year, and even projects a ‘moderate’ pace of growth in 2010.”

Housing Wire“Monday Morning Cup of Coffee” (12-21-09)

“According to John Burns Real Estate Consulting, existing home sales volumes are off 30% from the peak and have returned to 1998 levels. Perhaps even more worrying, the research states that existing sales volumes are driven by government initiatives, such as the expanded tax credit, aggressive FHA lending, Freddie and Fannie bailout, and Fed mortgage rate intervention. Additionally, investor activity now exceeds 2005 levels as a percent of total activity.”

Bloomberg - “U.S. Commercial Property Falls to Lowest in 7 Years” (12-21-09)

“Commercial property values in the U.S. declined in October to the lowest level in more than seven years as unemployment reduced demand for apartments, offices and retail space. The Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Indices fell 1.5 percent in October from September to the lowest since August 2002. Prices were down 36 percent from a year ago and are 44 percent below the peak in October 2007, Moody’s Investors Service Inc. said in a statement. ”

DSNews - “Seven New Closures Push 2009 Failures to 140″ (12-21-09)

“The nation’s economic crisis has certainly left its mark on the banking sector this year. These latest institutional seizures push the failed bank tally for 2009 to 140 – an exorbitant increase compared to 25 in 2008, only three in 2007, and none in 2006 and 2005.”

Housing Wire“More Servicers Bring HAMP List to 99″ (12-21-09)

“The US Treasury Department added 11 new servicers to the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP), pushing the total number of participants to 99, according to the latest Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) transaction report. Under HAMP, the Treasury allocates capped incentives to servicers for the modification of loans on the verge of foreclosure. Currently, the 99 servicers could receive a potential $27.4bn in capped incentives, but the Treasury plans to spend $50bn on the program.”

Inman - “Short sales show steady growth” (12-21-09)

“National bank and thrift servicers completed 22 percent more short sales during the quarter ending Sept. 30 than during the previous three months, and 127 percent more than the same quarter a year ago, federal bank regulators said today.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, California real estate sales decreased by 24 percent within one month. Governor Schwarzenegger rejected an $18 billion proposal for California expense cuts and tax increases. Barney Frank announced plans to release $350 billion from the bank-rescue package. The Federal Reserve bought $308.5 billion in commercial paper and lent $631.8 billion under eight credit programs.

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 12/18/09

Friday, December 18th, 2009

Today’s News Synopsis:

DQNews reports that a total of 35,860 new and resale houses and condos were sold in California during November. The median selling price for Bay Area homes fell by 0.8 percent last month. According to First American Corelogic, approximately 1.7 million homes are in shadow inventory. Deutsche Bank expects that U.S. home prices will decrease another 10 percent.

In The News:

DQNews - “California November Home Sales” (12-17-09)

“An estimated 35,860 new and resale houses and condos were sold statewide last month. That was down 13.1 percent from 41,280 in October, and up 11.5 percent from 32,163 for November 2008. A decline in sales from October to November is normal for the season. California sales for the month of November have varied from a low of 25,578 in 2007 to a peak of 60,326 in 2004, while the November average is 40,377. MDA DataQuick’s statistics go back to 1988.”

DQNews - “Bay Area home sales and median price top last year again” (12-18-09)

“The median price paid for all new and resale houses and condos that closed escrow in the nine-county Bay Area last month was $387,000. That was down 0.8 percent from $390,000 in October but up 10.6 percent from $350,000 in November 2008, according to MDA DataQuick of San Diego.”

NAR - “Four out of 10 Recent Buyers Relied on FHA Loans, Says NAR” (12-18-09)

“According to the most recent Realtors® Confidence Index, 39 percent of recent buyers purchased a home with a Federal Housing Administration-insured loan. Realtors® who took part in the November survey also reported that the number of first-time home buyers continued to climb to 51 percent.”

Housing Wire“Moody’s See Decelerating Jumbo Declines Around Falling House Prices” (12-18-09)

“During a revision of Moody’s Investors Service loss projections for U.S. prime jumbo residential mortgage backed securities (RMBS) issued between 2005 and 2008, the credit rating agency finds that the growth in new delinquency levels beyond the Q210 is expected to decline. On average, Moody’s is now projecting cumulative losses of 3.8% for 2005 securitizations, 8.0% for 2006 securitizations, 10.9% for 2007 securitizations and 12.3% for 2008 securitizations, reported as a percentage of original balance.”

Housing Wire“Months Later, Thornburg Servicing Portfolio to Sell” (12-18-09)

“Similarly, now-bankrupt Thornburg Mortgage left behind significantly more valuable assets months after the credit crisis took its toll on the ultra-prime jumbo mortgage lender. One of these assets — a $11.1bn of residential loan servicing rights portfolio — is going up for sale by Interactive Mortgage Advisers (IMA) as part of the sale of assets under Thornburg’s bankruptcy.”

Housing Wire“Deutsche Sees House Prices Falling Another 10 Percent” (12-18-09)

“Today, Deutsche Bank researchers say these predictions will likely become a reality, with the total peak-to-trough decline of US home prices hitting nearly 40%. In the current outlook, they say home prices will drop a further 10 to 12% from current levels.”

Housing Wire“TenantAccess Helps Handle Shadow Inventory” (12-18-09)

“After FirstAmerican Corelogic found 1.7m homes in the shadow inventory, TenantAccess will offer a range of programs to manage this backlog of residential foreclosures.”

Orange County Register“Is Irvine still a buyer’s market?” (12-18-09)

“While the inventory of resale homes continues to dwindle in Irvine and multiple offers above asking price aren’t rare, America’s Safest City remains a buyer’s market, according to Altos Research’s Market Action Index.”

Orange County Register“South O.C.’s $1 million-plus short sales” (12-18-09)

“Here’s how it breaks down – There are currently a total of 32 homes in south coast cities that are short sales priced at $1 million or higher: 10 in Laguna Beach, 11 in Dana Point and 12 in San Clemente. These are situations where the homeowner is taking a loss on their home by selling it for less than they owe on the loan. However, there are a total of 198 foreclosures in these cities – 27 in Laguna Beach, 56 in Dana Point and 115 in San Clemente.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, median home prices in the Bay Area sunk to an 8-year low. The FDIC reported that bank reserves were falling behind on the number of bad loans they held. The Federal Reserve bought $2.4 billion in debt from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

153-TNG Radio – Cantu and Alvarez 12-19-09

Friday, December 18th, 2009

Mike-Cantu

Mike Cantu

Investor

 

Tony-Alvarez

Tony Alvarez

Investor

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This week Bruce is joined by real estate investors Mike Cantu and Tony Alvarez.

Tony started working in the real estate industry in 1981. He became an appraiser, and then started buying houses in Burbank. He eventually went on to invest in apartments and other types of real estate. Tony believes that what really gave him an edge in the business was his training as an appraiser. If you look at the front part of an appraisal form, it gives you all the information you need to focus your attention on.

Mike Cantu became attracted to the real estate business after watching a late night infomercial. The infomercial was about a surfer who claimed that he went from being a 20-year-old loser to a millionaire in a year. Mike Cantu believed the infomercial and decided to pursue real estate as a career. That night he took some notes and he created a list of goals. He and his friend Chuck went to a free promotional seminar. After going to the seminar, he revised those goals substantially upwards. His first goal was very modest; it was to pay the 40 dollar balance on his retread tires at J&J Tires.

People being trained by Bruce are viewing his finished project and it is very intimidating, because they cannot even imagine owning one of his properties. Bruce asks Mike how important it is to escape reality and set goals for future desires. Mike believes that goal-setting is the most important part of investment. Without a plan and goals you will wander aimlessly. Mike is a very goal oriented person. He has a stack of goal labeled cards which he reviews daily. Mike described a Harvard study in which a graduating class was interviewed. They tracked down that graduating class 20 years later, and they found that 3 percent of the graduates had set long term goals, and that 3 percent had a combined net worth that was greater than the other 97 percent.

Bruce asks Tony when he began to set goals for becoming wealthy, and actually believed he could do it. Tony began to set goals after his first bad experience in the 80s. His initial goal, after coming out of bankruptcy in 1993, was to get to 1 million dollars and 10,000 dollars a month in income. That was a big deal for him because he did not even have a car at that time, and he was working at Shakeys. His income eventually reached 55,000 dollars a month. He made all that money by working with REO agents.

Freedom is what defines wealth for Mike. Wealth gives him the freedom to do what he wants and live life on his terms. Mike obtained his first level of freedom in 2000. He realized then that he had all the things he needed to pay of some of his debts. Mike once thought he was invincible and that he could avoid the mistakes that many other people made, and he was wrong. He often found himself taking three steps forward and two steps back, but he does not regret the mistakes he made, because he learned from them.

Tony was born in Cuba and his family immigrated to the New England area. He grew up very differently than the other people in his area, and the struggles he faced helped him to develop certain personality traits which he believes greatly helped him in his business. Tony never felt that he was poor even though he was not able to buy some of the things that other people had. Tony describes the wealth he has as his piece of mind. He does not have to get up and go to a job. He is not being forced to work for someone else every day without being able to control his destiny.

Bruce explains that feeling of control of his destiny and his family’s destiny. It does not feel good knowing that you do not have control of your family’s destiny, and to know that you cannot let them experience all the things you wanted them to. Tony warns that investors must be careful when they start feeling like they are free and clear. Mike tells everyone that there is always a way to screw up your plans. He has tried to dumb-proof his plans, which has lead him to investing in well located single-family houses with good schools and no debt on it.

Mike agrees with Tony’s definition of wealth. Mike believes there are three life currencies, which he calls money, time, and serenity. You can have the first two, but if you don’t have the third then the money and time is not very valuable. Once Mike gained his serenity, he realized that it was something he never wanted to let go of, and he works every day to maintain it.

In 1985 to 1989, people gained a great amount of equity. Bruce asks Mike how well they were doing during that time.  In the 80s, Mike was still learning to invest. He started his business in 1982. When the real estate market picked up, he started building houses and developing them. In 1987, he developed plans to become a big-time real estate developer. At that time, he did not understand that real estate has different cycles, and eventually he lost a lot of what he had gained.

Tony did very well during this same time period. He started as an appraiser because he wanted to invest. He learned a lot from banks, because he was able to look through all their files. He studied how banks qualified people, and he studied their top clients. He took that knowledge into his investing business. He also gained a lot of money by appraising for other investors. By the end of this cycle, he felt like quitting both sides of the business, because his work was all about the money and he was worn out. When he gained a large sum of money, he allowed someone else to handle his money for him, and he lost it all. When he went bankrupt, he had to walk home from the L.A. courthouse to Burbank. This gave him a lot of time to think about what he would not do the next time around.

After Mike’s bad run in building, he owned a lot of land, unfinished houses, a big subdivision, and a couple of unfinished condo projects. He learned from that experience that no matter how well you do, you can lose everything. Unfortunately, at that time he did not realize that you could also go negative, and dig a hole that takes time to get out of.

Not everyone chooses to dig themselves out of those sorts of problem. Some choose to walk away from their debts. Bruce has had people brag to him about how they own a rental that they haven’t made a payment on for 15 months. Mike considered the possibility of a corporate bankruptcy, but his partner encouraged him to pay off his debts. Bankruptcy decisions can hurt a lot of people other than the one declaring bankruptcy. It took Mike two years to take care of his debts, but everyone he was working with gained from his work, and he feels good about the decision he made.

It is very important to choose who you do business with. Mike suggests that you approach your search for a partner with the same seriousness that you would approach your search for a spouse. Mike has been approached for many partnership deals, but he accepts very few of them. He always asks his potential partners about how they are doing financially, because you do not want to let someone else’s bad decisions affect you.

The main less Tony learned from the down market in the early 90s was that he did not have to go into bankruptcy. Unfortunately, he did not realize this until later. Tony was given bankruptcy advice from an attorney, and he encouraged Tony to do it because he gained a fee from that decision. Tony warns that if you are chasing after deals out of fear for something, then you will eventually lose whatever you are making. When Toney came out of bankruptcy he learned to set goals. He was not so concerned with just making money, but with gaining his piece of mind. After he experienced bankruptcy, he came out with a better sense of who he was and what the ultimate purpose of his real estate business was.

Mike’s primary lesson from his downturn was that the bad times will not last forever. Everything will pass in time. He also learned the power of goals. He gained the determination to clean up the mess he had made. He also realized how important it is to figure out what you are really pursuing in life. Mike views real estate as a means to an end.

Bruce’s real estate experience has lead him to his passion, which is teaching. He enjoys the experience of calculating statistics that can be used to help other people. This discussion will continue next week. Mike and Tony will be back next week.

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 12/17/09

Thursday, December 17th, 2009

Today’s News Synopsis:

Research from NAR shows that most small-scale, exterior home modificaitons, such as door replacements and wood deck additions, are the most profitable at resale. The Federal Reserve’s commercial/multifamily mortgage debt decreased by 0.8 percent from the second quarter 2009. Radar Logic estimates that housing will continue to have trouble in 2010, but does not believe that a second collapse will occur. According to ForeclosureRadar.com, foreclosure cancellations in California climbed 40% in November.

In The News:

NAR - “Exterior Remodeling Proves Best Bang for Your Buck, Realtors® Report” (12-17-09)

“Despite a slow market and a slight decrease in the resale value of most remodeling projects, Realtors® report that the smartest home improvement investments may also be some of the least expensive. Results from the 2009 Remodeling Cost vs. Value Report show that small-scale exterior projects are the most profitable at resale, according to estimates by Realtors® who completed a recent survey. On a national level, eight out of the top 10 projects in terms of costs recouped were exterior replacement projects that cost less than $14,000. Certain types of door and siding replacements, as well as wood deck additions all returned more than 80 percent of project costs upon resale. A steel entry door replacement – a new addition to this year’s list – recouped 128.9 percent of costs, followed by upscale fiber-cement sliding replacements at 83.6 percent. Wood deck additions recouped 80.6 percent of costs.”

Mortgage Bankers AssociationMBA Study Shows Narrowing in Profit Margins For Independent Mortgage Bankers and Subsidiaries” (12-17-09)

Independent mortgage bankers and subsidiaries made an average profit of $902 on each loan they originated in the third quarter of 2009, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).  This profit marks a decrease from the second quarter of 2009 when profits averaged $1,358 per loan, according to the MBA’s most recent Quarterly Mortgage Bankers Performance Report. This report measures the performance of independent mortgage bankers and subsidiaries of banks, thrifts and hedge funds.”

Mortgage Bankers AssociationMBA Analysis: GSEs Increase Multifamily Mortgage Holdings; Banks Decrease Construction Loans and Increase Commercial/Multifamily Mortgages in Third Quarter 2009″ (12-17-09)

“The $3.43 trillion in commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding recorded by the Federal Reserve was a decrease of $28 billion or 0.8 percent from the second quarter 2009.  Multifamily mortgage debt outstanding dropped to $912 billion, a decrease of $1 billion or 0.1 percent from second quarter. The level of commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding decreased in the third quarter, to $3.43 trillion, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) analysis of the Federal Reserve Board Flow of Funds data.”

Housing WireHousing Won’t Collapse in 2010, says Radar Logic” (12-17-09)

“The US housing market could be in for some serious trouble in 2010, but predictions of a second collapse are ‘exaggerated,’ according to a report from Radar Logic, a real estate data and analytics company. Housing values could significantly recover in the spring of 2010 as low prices attract a blend of owner-occupiers and investors.”

Housing Wire“Total Mortgage Has Record Origination Year” (12-17-09)

“Total Mortgage Services said it expects to originate a company-record $750m in mortgages in 2009. It’s a 67% increase from 2008’s level of $450m in originated loans for the Milford, Conn.-based lender, which originates mortgages in more than 20 states. Total Mortgage credits low interest rates for the boost in both purchase and refinance activity.”

Housing Wire“Foreclosure Cancellations Rise 40% in California” (12-17-09)

“Foreclosure cancellations in California climbed 40% in November, according to a monthly report from ForeclosureRadar.com, which tracks foreclosures in California. Analysts adjusted the numbers to account for November’s four fewer filing days. Average daily foreclosure filings declined only 1%. Notice of trustee sales declined 13.4%, and the amount of real estate owned (REO) property increased 2.4%. Sales to third parties increased 8% on a daily average basis.”

Bloomberg“Luxury-Home Owners in U.S. Use ‘Short Sales’ as Defaults Rise” (12-17-09)

“Homeowners with mortgages of more than $1 million are defaulting at almost twice the U.S. rate and some are turning to so-called short sales to unload properties as stock-market losses and pay cuts squeeze wealthy borrowers.”

Bloomberg - “General Growth Considering ‘Indications of Interest’” (12-17-09)

“General Growth Properties Inc., the mall owner seeking to emerge from bankruptcy next year, will consider all offers for the company and may sell shares to the public to raise capital. General Growth won permission this week from a bankruptcy judge to restructure about $10.25 billion in debt at some of its properties. The Chicago-based company is trying to restructure $3 billion of additional secured debt, it said today in a statement. ”

Bloomberg - “U.S. Mortgage Rates Rise to 4.94%, Freddie Mac Says” (12-17-09)

“Mortgage rates for fixed 30-year U.S. home loans rose for a second consecutive week after hitting a record low this month. The rate for the week ended today increased to 4.94 percent from 4.81 percent. It set a record low 4.71 percent in the week ended Dec. 3. The average 15-year rate was 4.38 percent, the McLean, Virginia-based company said today in a statement.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, Lawrence Yun of the NAR estimated that commercial real estate would be damaged by job losses. CAR expected home prices to increase by 12 percent in 2008. Delinquencies for homes increased to 4.6 percent during the third quarter. The MBA reported that mortgage loan application volume increased during the week of December 12, 2008.