The Norris Group Blog

California Real Estate Headline Roundup

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 2/8/10

February 8th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

The U.S. Treasury Department reported 66,465 permanent loan modifications over 8 months. Delinquencies on prime jumbo loans increased to 10 percent in January. According to Altera Real Estate, distressed property sales increased in Dana Point and Laguna Beach. Unemployment in the U.S. construction industry increased to 24.7 percent in January.

In The News:

California Builder“2010 Economic Forecast: The Bear Turns Bullish” (2-8-10)

“In April of 2009, we reversed our tune and called for a ‘W,’ which would be an improvement in the market until the tax credit expired. However, with the federal tax credit extended through June for all buyers, and affordability far better than we imagined at the time, the risk of a second leg down has been significantly reduced.”

Housing Wire“House Committee Investigates HAMP ‘Effectiveness’” (2-8-10)

“The US Treasury Department launched HAMP in March 2009 to allocate capped incentives to borrowers for the modification of loans on the verge of foreclosure. After eight months in the program, the Treasury reported 66,465 permanent loan modifications in December, up from 31,382 permanent modifications in November.”

Housing Wire“Fitch Says Prime Jumbo RMBS Near 10% Delinquent” (2-8-10)

“The performance of US prime jumbo loan performance within residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) slipped again in January as serious delinquencies (60+ days past due) rose for the 32nd consecutive month and edged closer to 10%, according to the latest market commentary from Fitch Ratings.”

Housing Wire“Monday Morning Cup of Coffee” (2-8-10)

“The editorial argues the $111bn in mortgage losses covered by the Treasury Department was justifiable as an emergency measure to keep the housing market from collapsing entirely. But with continued losses projected in 2011 and 2012, covering the GSEs in perpetuity would cost more than $1.6trn, on top of the national debt of $12.3trn.”

Housing Wire“BofA Lends $758bn in 2009″ (2-8-10)

“Bank of America (BAC: 14.48 -3.47%) said it extended more than $758bn in credit in 2009, including nearly $180bn in Q409. BofA originated $87bn in first mortgages to fund purchase or refinance loans for more than 400,000 borrowers in Q409. That total includes $23bn in mortgages made to 151,000 low- and moderate-income borrowers. For the year, BofA originated $378bn in first mortgages for more than 1.7m customers, including $87bn in mortgages to more than 561,000 low- and moderate-income borrowers. In Q409, BofA originated $3bn in home equity and reverse mortgage loans, bringing the total for 2009 to $13bn.”

Orange County Register“South coast: short sales, foreclosures up” (2-8-10)

“Most of our south coast cities went against the grain and reflected the opposite of the countywide trend by seeing an increase in distressed properties for sale. Two weeks ago, Dana Point’s percentage of short sales and foreclosures was 24.7%, which has risen just slightly to 24.8%, according to a biweekly report by Steven Thomas of Altera Real Estate. Laguna Beach also saw a slight increase in distressed properties. The percentage of short sales and foreclosures rose from 9% two weeks ago to 9.3%.”

Orange County Register“1-in-4 U.S. construction workers jobless” (2-8-10)

“The U.S. construction industry’s unemployment rate hit 24.7% in January as another 75,000 American construction workers lost their jobs.”

Realty Times“Developing Referral Relationships” (2-8-10)

“The primary objective of your first contact, like the objective of any other first sales call to a new prospect, is to book an appointment. The first appointment might take the form of an exploratory session aimed at determining the wants, needs, and desires of the lead, or it might be an appointment to conduct a buyer consultation or listing presentation. The secondary objective of your first contact is to open the door, establish trust and respect, demonstrate your knowledge, and establish your position as a reliable resource.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, the MBA ranked Wachovia as the leading national commercial and multifamily loan servicer. Geithner promised that lenders receiving financial rescue would be required to offer mortgage modifications. A total of 70 banks were shut down within the first month of 2009.

Tip of the iceberg by Bruce Norris, An Introduction in Parts

February 5th, 2010

By request we have broken up the introduction into smaller pieces so viewing is faster.  In these four video sections, Bruce Norris discusses his upcoming California market timing udpate, Tip of the Iceberg. Tip of the Iceberg explores micro trends in California and helps prepare real estate professionals for the years ahead. Some of the conclusions might surprise you!

To register for the seminar, visit our event portion of the website http://www.thenorrisgroup.com/training/tip-of-the-iceberg

Who should attend: investors, Realtors, mortgage professionals, and market timing nerds (you know who you are).

160-TNG Radio – Philip Tirone 2-6-10

February 5th, 2010

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Philip Tirone

The Mortgage Equity Group, Inc. and www.7Stepsto720.com

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This week Bruce is joined by Philip Tirone. Philip is the president of the Mortgage Equity Group, and author of Seven Steps to a 720 Credit Score.

At the beginning of the second quarter of 2010, the Fed may not be the MBS-arm. This role may go back to the private sector. If this happens, Philip believes it would cause a disaster which would lock up the entire industry. The Federal Reserve has been helping the problem. The Fed will go from buying nothing to buying $800 billion in order to prop up the economy. Philip believes the Federal Reserve will reach a time in which they will no longer be able to continuously buy. However, both Bruce and Philip that the Fed’s limit will not be reached before April.

Right now, people have the mentality that they should not refinance unless they can get a value under 5 percent, but rates are at their lowest in over 60 years. Philip believes that if the rates increased to 6 percent, then the public would have a significant shift in their desire to buy. Philip thinks that if this increase occurs, some people will simply wait for rates to return to the previous low value. Unfortunately, if the government removes its influence from the market, Philip thinks there is a chance that the rate may return to a rate much higher than 6 percent. Bruce believes this sort of change would be very harmful.

We do not currently have enough buyers in the market, because the government is still paying people $8,000 to buy homes. This tax credit has helped realtors greatly in making deals.

For every 1 percent increase in the mortgage rate, the buying power is reduced by 15 percent. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are maxing out the back end ratio at 45 percent. The government is trying to stimulate the housing market by keeping rates low, and by buying billions of dollars of debt.

Philip thinks the back end ratio is preventing more loans than the front end, because the front end is simply like a point of interest, but the back end is like a deal breaker.

In Riverside, the home payment does not typically exceed rate. You would think this would make it easy for these citizens to qualify, but many of them have car payments and credit card debt which takes away their qualifying ability. This sort of problem is not something you can change over night, and it is causing a large number of losses in the number of home buyers.

The media has done a good job at scaring people into believing that they are underwater. In Philip’s area, with FHA, you can buy a $750,000 home with only 3.5 to 4 percent down. The problem is that people have now been conditioned to believe that they are incapable of qualifying for a loan. Some people believe that loan qualification currently requires a 30 percent down payment.

Philip has seen many people make strategic defaults on their payments. Philip recently talked to a man who had $150,000 in debt, and was underwater on his payments by $5,000. This man decided he was going to negotiate with all of his money lenders. He stopped paying his debts with the realization that his credit would go down. He then called his lenders and told them that he was will to negotiate for 15 cents on the dollar, payable over six months. He then began to receive threats from the lenders. His home lender threatened to get him put in jail. Nothing happened for 5 or 6 months, but later on he was able to settle for 22 cents on the dollar with his credit card debt. He later said that everyone he talked to about modifications was giving him a different story. Each industry had something different to say about modification. Philip doesn’t even think that the major banks like Bank of America currently understand everything about loan modifications.

Two years ago, strategic defaults would have been looked down on, but now many people consider it acceptable. Bruce has even heard that some college campuses are encouraging people to strategically default. Presently, about 11 percent of people are delinquent on their payments, but if we allow people to strategically default, then things could get worse. Philip thinks that the problem is that we are rewarding people that are behind on their mortgage payments. Those people gave their lenders their word that they would pay, but they have not kept their promise. Philip thinks that people who are current on their payments are getting angry, because they feel like all bad borrowers are being rewarded, but they are being damaged for doing the right thing. Philip thinks some of these good borrowers want to take revenge on the banks via strategic default. Bruce can understand that mentality, but this debt that is being incurred from these defaults is hurting us all in the future.

Philip’s website is www.philiptirone.com. His phone number is 310-453-1901. He will handle any kind of mortgage throughout California.

Join us next week as we interview Christopher Thornberg!

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 2/5/10

February 5th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

According to First American CoreLogic, 12 percent of mortgages in Sacramento, El Dorado, Placer and Yolo were seriously distressed in December. ZipRealty reports the national home inventory increased by 2.9 percent last month. The Department of Labor announced that the unemployment rate decreased to 9.7% in January. The FTC proposed a new rule which would prohibit third-party mortgage companies from charging upfront fees for foreclosure rescue and modification services.

In The News:

Sacramento Bee“12% distress rate seen for region’s mortgages” (2-5-10)

“Twelve percent of mortgages in Sacramento, El Dorado, Placer and Yolo counties were seriously distressed in December, the newest warning that trouble is not abating, according to Orange County-based market analyst First American CoreLogic.”

The Washington Post“Official says Fed might buy more mortgage-backed securities” (2-5-10)

“The Federal Reserve would consider reopening its program to support the mortgage market if interest rates spiked or the economy showed new weakness, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William C. Dudley said in two new interviews. The Fed is buying $1.25 trillion in mortgage-backed securities in its effort to prop up the economy but has said it will end those purchases March 31.”

Inman - “For-sale inventory rises in January” (2-5-10)

“Monthly for-sale home inventory increased in January for the first time in 18 months, according to a report by national real estate brokerage company ZipRealty. The number of homes for sale increased 2.9 percent from December, an additional 15,818 homes, to a total of 567,265 single-family homes and condominiums listed in 27 metropolitan areas across the country. December saw 2009’s greatest fall in month-to-month inventory, down 4.83 percent.”

Housing Wire“HUD Connects Sustainable Housing With Job Creation” (2-5-10)

“The new HUD initiative comes as the US unemployment rate lingers near historic highs. The unemployment rate dropped slightly to 9.7% in January from recent 10% highs, according to the US Department of Labor.”

Housing Wire“Beazer Posts Quarterly Profit After $101m Tax Refund” (2-5-10)

“Homebuilder Beazer Homes (BZH: 4.16 +1.22%) reported income of $44.5m, or $1.09 per share, in its fiscal year first quarter that ended on December 31, 2009. It’s the second consecutive profitable quarter for the Atlanta-based builder. In its fiscal year Q409 that ended Sept. 30, Beazer reported a $35.3m profit. In the year-ago quarter, Beazer reported a loss of $79.2m.”

Housing Wire“FTC Rule Bans Up-Front Fees on Mortgage Modifications” (2-5-10)

“The Federal Trade Commission proposed a new rule to prohibit third-party mortgage companies from charging upfront fees for foreclosure rescue and modification services. The FTC brought 28 cases against companies that charge a fee, promising the borrower a modification from the lender. The cases allege these companies never provided the services promised and that they misrepresent their affiliation with the government and other housing assistance programs, including the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP).”

Housing Wire“Fed MBS Purchases 94% Complete with Another $12bn” (2-5-10)

“The Fed bought a total of $17.6bn in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) – $5.6bn Freddie Mac (FRE: 1.16 0.00%) MBS, $9.3bn Fannie Mae (FNM: 0.97 -1.02%) MBS and $2.7bn Ginnie Mae MBS, according to a summary of purchases. The New York Fed also sold $5.6bn of MBS in the same week, bringing the net purchases to $12bn, the same as last week.”

Realty Times“Housing Affected by Demographic Trends” (2-5-10)

“The Urban Land Institute predicts there will be two major changes beginning in this new decade in our country that will affect the housing market. The first is that home appreciation will slow. The report predicts annual appreciation of 1 percent to 2 percent. The second change is that the record-high U.S. homeownership rate will decline from 69 percent to 62 percent.”

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 2/4/10

February 4th, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

Marcus & Millichap annual apartment report places San Diego in second place for stability and possible growth in 2010. Statistics from MDA DataQuick show that 18,621 California homes sold for over 1 million dollars last year. Freddie Mac reports that the rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages increased to 5.01 percent. PMI predicts that home values are near to reaching the bottom.

In The News:

Sign on San Diego - “Apartment activity is on upswing” (2-4-10)

“San Diego County’s apartment market ranks second nationally after Washington, D.C., in its outlook for stability and possible growth in 2010, according to Marcus & Millichap’s annual apartment report covering 44 metro areas. Two other reports came to the same conclusion: San Diego’s rental market is on the way up.”

DQNews - “Million-dollar home sales plummet in Golden State” (2-4-10)

“A total of 18,621 Golden State homes sold for a million dollars or more last year. That was down 23.8 percent from 24,436 in 2008. In 2007 it was 42,506; in 2006 it was 50,010; and in 2005 it peaked at 54,773. Last year was the lowest sales count since 2002, when 15,703 were sold, according to San Diego-based MDA DataQuick.”

Bloomberg - “Mortgage Rates on 30-Year U.S. Loans Rise to 5.01%” (2-4-10)

“The rate for 30-year fixed U.S. home loans rose to 5.01 percent for the week ended today from 4.98 percent, mortgage finance company Freddie Mac said in a statement. The average 15- year rate was 4.40 percent, according to the McLean, Virginia- based company.”

Housing Wire“GMAC Loses $5bn on Mounting Mortage Woes” (2-4-10)

“GMAC Financial Services (GOM: 19.8199 -0.85%) posted an expected Q409 net loss of $5bn, as losses related to legacy assets in the company’s mortgage operations continue to mount. The Q409 loss compares to net income of $7.5bn in Q409 and net loss of $747m in Q309. For all of 2009, GMAC reported a net loss of $10.3bn, compared to net income of $1.9bn in 2008.”

Housing Wire“Home Values Likely Reaching Bottom: PMI” (2-4-10)

“The risk of home prices dropping even lower in the next two years is stabilizing in most Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs), according to the PMI Mortgage Insurance Risk Index. The decline in the risk of house values falling further may indicate a bottoming out of the market.”

Housing Wire“FHFA Home Index Updates Help Smooth Price Volatility” (2-4-10)

“According to the FHFA, the updates to their purchase-only house price index (HPI) since Q404 show a tendency to dampen house price volatility. Indeed, the last monthly HPI from the agency showed national prices rose 0.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis from October to November. That was after October’s previously reported 0.6% increase was adjusted to 0.4%.”

Housing Wire“Home Prices Hit First Annual Gain Since 2006: Clear Capital” (2-4-10)

“Home prices in January increased 2.3%, marking the first year-over-year increase in more than three years, according to the Home Data Index (HDI) from Clear Capital, the real estate data provider. In all, prices gained 1.8% on the rolling-quarterly scale into January.”

Inman - “Feds to restrict foreclosure rescue firms” (2-4-10)

“Federal regulators say they intend to follow the lead of many states in banning for-profit companies from collecting advance fees from homeowners in exchange for promises to help them obtain loan modifications or avoid foreclosure. A rule proposed today by the Federal Trade Commission would bar for-profit companies that work with lenders and servicers on behalf of homeowners to modify loans or avoid foreclosure from collecting payment until after such services are provided, and impose other restrictions on their practices.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, the MBA reported that the mortgage application volume was significantly increasing. Pulte Homes, a large U.S. building company, reported 9 months of consistent profit loss. The HOPE lending program had only refinanced 25 loans since it began in October.

Tip of the Iceberg by Bruce Norris from the Norris Group

February 4th, 2010

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 2/3/10

February 3rd, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

According to the MBA, mortgage application volume increased by 21 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from last week. Lender Processing Services reports that home delinquency rates increased to 10 percent from November. Inman and GMAC expect that job losses will increase in the real estate industry.

In The News:

Mortgage Bankers Association“Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey” (2-3-10)

“The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 29, 2010. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased of 21.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 23.5 percent compared with the previous week.”

Housing Wire“Mortgage Delinquencies Pass 10%: LPS” (2-3-10)

“Home-loan delinquency rates in the US reached 10% in December, up from the record-high 9.97% in November, according to Lender Processing Services (LPS: 39.93 +1.94%), which provides data on mortgage performance.”

Housing Wire“PNC to Repay $7.6bn of TARP Funds” (2-3-10)

“The PNC Financial Services Group (PNC: 53.71 -1.72%) negotiated with regulators to repay $7.6bn of funds, nearly three-quarters of what it received in bailout money from the Treasury Department under the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP).”

Bloomberg - “GMAC Cuts More Than 500 Jobs in Mortgage, Auto Finance Units” (2-3-10)

“GMAC Inc., the auto and home lender controlled by the U.S. government, plans to cut about 554 jobs and close three offices as the firm tries to stanch loan losses.”

Inman - “Brokers boost tech spending, recruiting” (2-3-10)

“Real estate brokers are cutting office staff and reducing marketing and advertising expenses to survive the downturn, but most have still managed to beef up spending on technology and agent recruitment and training in the past year, according to a broker survey conducted by Inman News.”

Inman - “Homebuyers gain bargaining power” (2-3-10)

“Buyers nationwide haggled a median 2.7 percent, or $5,618, off the last listing price of homes sold in December, a slight increase from 2.6 percent, or $5,538, in November, and the first and only month-to-month increase in 2009. Bargaining power decreased significantly year-over-year, however. In December 2008, buyers were able to knock a median 4.5 percent, or $10,018, off the last listing price.”

Looking Back:

One year ago, NAR reported that pending home sales increased by 6.3 percent in December. MDA DataQuick claimed 24,436 California homes sold for a million dollars or more during the previous year. The CBIA predicted that 63,400 housing units would be produced in 2009. Zillow announced that the U.S. home market lost $3.3 trillion in value in one year.

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 2/2/10

February 2nd, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

The NAR’s index  shows that pending home sales increased by 1 percent in December. According to the MBA, commercial and multifamily mortgage loan originations increased by 15 percent during the 4th quarter of 2009.  The FHA reports that borrower delinquencies increased by 6.5 percent from the previous year. Fannie Mae is offering a 3.5 percent discount to all people who buy REO properties.

In The News:

NAR - “Pending Home Sales Stabilize, Remain Above Year-Ago Levels” (2-2-10)

“The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in December, increased 1.0 percent to 96.6 from 95.6 in November, and remains 10.9 percent above December 2008 when it was 87.1. In November, the monthly index had fallen by 16.4 percent from surging activity in preceding months.”

Mortgage Bankers Association“MBA Study: Originations of Commercial and Multifamily Mortgages Increased in Fourth Quarter 2009″ (2-2-10)

“Fourth quarter 2009 commercial and multifamily mortgage loan originations were 12 percent higher than during the same period last year and 15 percent higher than during the third quarter of 2009, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Quarterly Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations.”

Washington Post“Rising FHA default rate foreshadows a crush of foreclosures” (2-2-10)

“About 9.1 percent of FHA borrowers had missed at least three payments as of December, up from 6.5 percent a year ago, the agency’s figures show.”

Housing Wire“First American Offers Appraiser Reviews of BPOs” (2-2-10)

“First American Valuation and Property Solutions – the Dallas-based subsidiary of the First American Corporation (FAF: 30.68 +1.86%) – added appraiser reviews of broker price opinion (BPO) reports to its new property valuation offering. The move to add appraiser reviews allows firms without on-staff appraisers to outsource BPO verification operations – a trend sources say is catching on.”

Housing Wire“HUD 2011 Budget Drops to $41.6bn on Higher FHA Premiums” (2-2-10)

“The US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) budget proposal for 2011 dipped 5% below the budget in 2010 to $41.6bn after raising annual Federal Housing Administration (FHA) insurance premiums by 50 bps to 2.25% earlier this month.”

Housing Wire“CMBS Performance Slides Again: Trepp” (2-2-10)

“The rate of 30-plus-day delinquency in commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS)reached a new record high of 6.49% in January, according to commercial real estate data provider Trepp.”

Housing Wire - “Fannie Gives 3.5% REO Discount” (2-2-10)

“Fannie Mae (FNM: 1.02 -0.97%) will provide a 3.5% discount to those purchasing a real-estate owned (REO) property listed as part of its HomePath division, according to a company notice.”

Bloomberg - “D.R. Horton Climbs Most in 10 Months on Profit Gain” (2-2-10)

“D.R. Horton Inc., the second-largest U.S. homebuilder by revenue, climbed the most in 10 months after the company reported its first quarterly profit since 2007 on sales and profit margins that exceeded analysts’ estimates.”

Bloomberg - “U.S. Vacancy Rate Increases as Banks Seize More Homes” (2-2-10)

“The homeowner vacancy rate increased to 2.7 percent from 2.6 percent in the third quarter, the U.S. Census Bureau said in a report today. There were 2.09 million empty properties on the market, up from 1.99 million, according to the report.”

Inman - “First-timers are fastest-growing segment” (2-2-10)

“First-time homebuyers not only account for the largest share of home sales in many markets, but represent the fastest-growing segment of home sales in nearly half of those markets, brokers surveyed by Inman News report. Second homes and move-up homes, on the other hand, are the most rapidly shrinking segment of their business, brokers responding to the survey said.”

Looking Back:

One year ago,  a $5 billion increase in mortgage debt investment by foreign banks was noted by Morgan Stanley. San Francisco analysts predicted that condominium prices in the SF area would significantly decrease. Obama exclaimed that he would require banks receiving bailout money to increase lending to borrowers.

The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 2/1/10

February 1st, 2010

Today’s News Synopsis:

The MBA reported there is a $1.45 trillion balance of outstanding mortgages held by non-bank investors. SIGTARP predicted a second housing bubble. Fannie Mae’s mortgage delinquency rate increased to5.29% in November 2009. U.S. home construction spending decreased by 2.7 percent in December.

In The News:

Mortgage Bankers Association -Only 13 Percent of Non-Bank Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Debt to Mature in 2010; Seven Percent in 2011″ (2-1-10)

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released the results of its 2009 Commercial Real Estate/Multifamily Survey of Loan Maturity Volumes. The survey indicates that the volume of commercial and multifamily mortgage debt maturing in 2010 and 2011 is relatively low.  Of the $1.45 trillion balance of outstanding mortgages held by non-bank investors, only 13 percent of the total ($183.9 billion) will mature in 2010 and 7 percent ($99.8 billion) in 2011.  The survey also found that maturities vary considerably by the type of investor holding the loan.”

Mortgage Bankers AssociationWells Fargo/Wachovia, PNC/Midland and Berkadia Lead National Rankings of Commercial/Multifamily Servicing Volumes” (2-1-10)

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its year-end ranking of commercial and multifamily mortgage servicers as of the end of December 31, 2009.  On top of the list of firms is Wells Fargo/Wachovia Bank with $473.8 billion in U.S. master and primary servicing, followed by PNC Real Estate/Midland Loan Services with $322.9 billion, Berkadia Commercial Mortgage with $217.9 billion, Bank of America Merrill Lynch with $131.7 billion, KeyBank Real Estate Capital with $128.5 billion, and GEMSA Loan Services LP with $102.3 billion.”

Housing WireSIGTARP Warns of Second Housing Bubble” (2-1-10)

“The Special Inspector General for the Troubled Asset Relief Program (SIGTARP), which oversees the federal government’s economic recovery program, called for reform to prevent government bailouts in the future and warned of a government-induced second housing bubble.”

Housing Wire“Officials Contend FHA is Going to be OK” (2-1-10)

“Despite a huge growth in business over the past few years, the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) says its huge portfolio, now worth $750bn, is safely managed as the firm becomes comfortable with dealing with risk.”

Housing Wire - “VIEWPOINT: Waiting for the Fed to Withdraw” (2-1-10)

“The Fed will end the program by March 31 at $1.25trn. There is still chatter, however, about what circumstances would prompt the Fed to resume MBS purchases after March 31. It boils down to two things: a substantial re-weakening in home sales and prices or an excessive spike in mortgage rates.”

Housing Wire“Fannie Mae Serious Mortgage Delinquencies Rise Above 5%” (2-1-10)

“The government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) Fannie Mae (FNM: 1.03 +7.29%) reported a serious delinquency rate for its mortgage portfolio of 5.29% in November 2009, the latest month of data, the highest in recent memory. That number grew from 4.98% in October and more than doubled the 2.13% in November 2008, according to its monthly summary.”

Bloomberg - “MetLife Cut by Fitch on Commercial Real Estate Losses” (2-1-10)

“MetLife Inc., the largest U.S. life insurer, was downgraded by Fitch Ratings on the prospect of losses tied to investments including commercial real estate holdings.”

Inman - “Home construction down in December” (2-1-10)

“The rate of U.S. home construction spending nationwide fell year-over-year and month-to-month in December, according to a report released today by the U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce. Spending for December dropped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $268.7 billion, a 2.7 percent drop from $276.2 billion the month before, and a 10.3 percent drop from $299.4 billion in December 2008. This rate is a projection of a monthly spending total over a 12-month period, adjusted to reflect typical seasonal fluctuations in construction activity.”

159-TNG Radio – Philip Tirone 1-30-10

January 29th, 2010

phil_tirone

Philip Tirone

The Mortgage Equity Group, Inc. and www.7Stepsto720.com

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This week Bruce is joined by Philip Tirone. Philip is the president of the Mortgage Equity Group, and author of Seven Steps to a 720 Credit Score.

Philip got in the business in 1997; near the beginning of the boom. For the first 9 years of Philip’s loan career, he continuously saw regulators loosen the business guidelines. The people that he worked with were making substantial incomes from 2004 to 2006. There were some loan agents in Philip’s office who were driving Bentleys. Most of those people are now out of Philip’s business, because they matched their income with their expenses, and they lost their wealth during the recession. This reminded Bruce of a recent trustee sale he attended in which many of the homes being sold were previously owned by mortgage brokers.

Three years ago, a mortgage banker was someone who lent their money to property buyers. The second tier of mortgage banking in which a regional firm lends their own money through a warehouse line. Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Washington Mutual portfoliod their high risk loans. These high risk loans were what caused other big banks to fail.

Mortgage brokers are individuals who can go to banks and take loans. Many banks have retail divisions, in which people can walk off the street, and they have whole sale divisions, in which banks would sell mortgages at lower rates to people who could sell mortgages. Whole sale mortgages allow mortgage banks to sell their loans at a lower rate to people who will bring them business.

Presently, 99 percent of loans being done right now are going to the government through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Fannie and Freddie are the mortgage backed security outlet. Because loans are being heavily regulated, there is little difference between mortgage bankers and mortgage brokers. This is because there are no longer a large variety of loan programs with different fees; everyone is selling the same product.

The value of a mortgage broker is more appreciated for large mortgages, because they know how to get the deals. Unfortunately, those loans have dried up. The amount of financing being done over $729,000 has probably decreased by over 80 percent. This is partially because mortgage brokers could use stated income loans. There were some scenarios where stated income loans were not a bad idea. For example, a company owner with $5 million in the bank, who wants to buy a $3 million property with 30 percent down, is a good applicant for a stated income loan. Stated income loans did not always mean “no proof” loans. When Philip first got into the business, bankers would check out bank statements. Little by little, stated income became a no document program.

Bruce Norris estimates that over 1,000 foreclosures will occur within the next 30 days on houses valued above $1 million. It is not easy to refinance a bill that expensive, and there are not enough people to buy expensive homes like that.

Another presently occurring problem is poor appraisals. Philip refinanced for a man who bought a loan for $850,000. The value of his property increased to over $1 million. When he ordered the appraisal, the appraisal value came in at $850,000. The borrower was very frustrated with his property’s devaluation, but he didn’t choose to try and sell the property immediately. Later on, he asked for another appraisal, and the appraisal value came in at $1,170,000. These mistakes are making investors want to pull their hair out. We are bringing in appraisers from outside areas who don’t know about the areas they are working in. The AMCs are supposed to behave as a wall between lenders and mortgage bankers, but the reality is that the lenders who were defrauding the banks are not in the business any more.

Bruce asks Philip to discuss the different regulations that have come into the industry. The regulation in the loan industry is so overdone right now; it is literally causing people in the industry to do 2 to 3 times as much work. Regulation X states that mortgage bankers must give extremely precise estimates. These estimates must be so precise that if the escrow fee comes even $200 above the estimate, then the lender must pay for it. This need for precision in estimates is causing people to require over-disclosure. People are complaining about how expensive the fees are, and Philip has to explain that we are in a terrible scenario with over regulation. Any time new regulations come out the loan process is slowed down. For example, one month ago Philip submitted a loan on a $2.5 million property with a 5 year fixed loan, but he later decided that he wanted a 3 year fixed loan. Once he chose to make that change, everything in the loan process had to stop. The underwriter couldn’t underwrite it. If you send the corrections through email then you have to wait at least 3 days. If you are an investor selling a property, you will not be able to sell any faster than within 30 days.

Throughout Philip’s career, refinances and purchases have equally dominated the industry. Currently, more people are doing refinancing because of the great rates.

In 2005 and 2006, about 85 percent of the people who came to Philip were able to get loans. In 2009, only about 15 percent of Philip’s potential customers were able to get loans. Bruce asks what happened to those people who made them incapable of getting loans. Philip says that it is a combination of bad personal scenarios and bad lending policies. Some have severely damaged their savings. In the majority of the cases, the lending guidelines are the cause of trouble. Philip could get great approval for a buyer with a statistically low default risk, but now mortgage bankers are not allowed to back anyone with a default ratio over 45 percent. These policies also prevent refinancing for people who could safely take on extra debt. Some people are being restricted from getting a loan, because they bought a car that slightly tipped them over the 45 percent risk scale. A great borrower could increase their lease by 42 dollars, and then disable themselves from getting a loan. Philip advises people who are looking for a loan to not put anything on their credit card. Even paying off a collection account can damage your credit score.

Jumbo loans include anything over $729,000. These loans do not have typical 30-year fixed loan rates. A five year fixed loan will have an interest rate in the low 5s, and ten year fixed loan rates will be in the high 5s.

Philip’s website is www.philiptirone.com. His phone number is 310-453-1901. He will handle any kind of mortgage throughout California.

Reserve requirements for banks have changed significantly for those involved in jumbo loans. Jumbo loans must be backed by six months’ income or 12 months’ payment, but this can vary depending on the situation. Reserve requirements are not as black and white as credit scores.

Bruce and Philip will continue this discussion next week.